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1.
Alexey V. Eliseev Alexandr V. Chernokulsky Andrey A. Karpenko Igor I. Mokhov 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,101(1-2):67-81
An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860–2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50°N and 70°N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000–2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4–14 TgS/year (2–7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperature may grow with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted employing a globally averaged energy–balance climate model. With the latter model, an analytical estimate for sulphate aerosol emissions in the stratosphere required climate mitigation is obtained. It is shown that effective vertical localisation of the imposed radiative forcing is important for geoengineering efficiency. 相似文献
2.
Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer 《Climatic change》2008,88(2):199-208
Evaluating trends over time (nonparametric Mann–Kendall test) for 18 water chemical variables from 79 reference lakes, distributed
all over Sweden, during spring since 1984 showed most significant trends for atmospheric deposition driven sulfate (SO4) concentrations. The decrease in SO4 concentrations was on average 2.7 times higher at lower (56°N to 59°N) than at higher latitudes (60°N to 68°N). This large
difference in the rate of change between lower and higher latitudes could not solely be explained by atmospheric deposition
as the rates of change in SO4 wet deposition differed by a factor of only 1.5 between lower and higher latitudes. Significantly higher rates of change
at lower than at higher latitudes are known from the timing of lake ice breakup, a typical climate change indicator. The rates
of change in the timing of lake ice breakup differed by a factor of 2.3 between lower and higher latitudes. Other water chemical
variables showing significantly higher rates of change at lower than at higher latitudes were water color (a factor of 3.5),
calcium (a factor of 2.9), magnesium (a factor of 5.5) and conductivity (a factor of 5.9). The rates of change of all these
variables were strongly related to the rates of change in the timing of lake ice breakup along a latitudinal gradient (R
2 = 0.41–0.78, p < 0.05), suggesting that climatic changes can accelerate atmospheric driven changes at especially lower latitudes. This acceleration
will result in more heterogeneous lake ecosystems along a latitudinal gradient. 相似文献
3.
This study analyzed the long-term trends and variations of temperature and precipitation on annual timescale in the Ili-Balkhash Basin (IBB), Kazakhstan. Some statistical tools were employed to detect any climate variations at four stations in the IBB during the period between 1936 and 2005. These methods included the Mann–Kendall trend test, the Theil–Sen approach, and the sequential Mann–Kendall test. The results showed that in temporal scale, the climate in the IBB has been becoming warmer and wetter in the past several decades as a whole. The annual mean temperature and the annual precipitation in the IBB showed an increasing trend since the 1970s and the 1940s, respectively. The significance of the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation trends in the IBB was tested at >95 % confidence level. The slope of the increasing trend of annual mean temperature ranges from 0.019 to 0.029 °C/year, and that of the annual precipitation ranges from 0.654 to 2.179 mm/year. In spatial scale, the multiyear mean values of temperature and precipitation are greater in the southern mountain region than those in the northern plain and hilly land area of the basin. The multiyear mean temperature decreases with the increasing latitudes, while increases with the increasing altitudes except for Karaganda; the multiyear mean precipitation increase with the increasing altitudes, while decreases centered with the Lake Balkhash from the surrounding area. The results may provide climatic backgrounds for solving the problems related to water sources of the IBB. 相似文献
4.
Effects of global warming on radial growth were examined for the subalpine tree species Abies veitchii (1600–2200 m?a.s.l.), A. mariesii (2000–2500 m?a.s.l.) and Betula ermanii (1600–2500 m?a.s.l.) in central Japan, by using dendrochronological techniques. Chronologies of tree-ring widths were examined for the three species and of maximum latewood densities for the two Abies species at their upper and lower distribution limits (total 10 chronologies). We developed multiple regression models to reproduce these chronologies from the monthly mean temperature and sum of precipitation. Of the 10 chronologies, growth-climate relations could not be modeled for tree-ring width chronologies of the three species at their lower distribution limits because of low correlation. Annual mean temperature and annual sum of precipitation will increase about 3 °C and 100 mm, respectively, by 2100 in central Japan, according to 18 climatic change scenarios (6 general circulation models ×3 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios). We predicted tree-ring widths and maximum latewood densities by substituting 18 climatic change scenarios into the growth-climate models. Maximum latewood densities and tree-ring widths of A. mariesii at the upper and lower distribution limits increased by 2100. The rates of the increase tended to be greater for scenarios with more greenhouse gas emission. By contrast, maximum latewood densities of A. veitchii and tree-ring widths of B. ermanii were unchanged by 2100, irrespective of the three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. This study showed that radial growth of the three species responds differently to global warming and their responses are predictable by dendrochronological models. 相似文献
5.
Climatic changes associated with a global “2°C-stabilization” scenario simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Wilhelm May 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):283-313
In this study, concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases as well as the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations are prescribed to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model so that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2°C relative to pre-industrial times. The climatic changes associated with this so-called “2°C-stabilization” scenario are assessed in further detail, considering a variety of meteorological and oceanic variables. The climatic changes associated with such a relatively weak climate forcing supplement the recently published fourth assessment report by the IPCC in that such a stabilization scenario can only be achieved by mitigation initiatives. Also, the impact of the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations on the simulated climatic changes is investigated. For this particular climate model, the 2°C-stabilization scenario is characterized by the following atmospheric concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases: 418 ppm (CO2), 2,026 ppb (CH4), and 331 ppb (N2O), 786 ppt (CFC-11) and 486 ppt (CFC-12), respectively. These greenhouse gas concentrations correspond to those for 2020 according to the SRES A1B scenario. At the same time, the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations are changed to the level in 2100 (again, according to the SRES A1B scenario), with a global anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emission of 28 TgS/year leading to a global anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load of 0.23 TgS. The future changes in climate associated with the 2°C-stabilization scenario show many of the typical features of other climate change scenarios, including those associated with stronger climatic forcings. That are a pronounced warming, particularly at high latitudes accompanied by a marked reduction of the sea-ice cover, a substantial increase in precipitation in the tropics as well as at mid- and high latitudes in both hemispheres but a marked reduction in the subtropics, a significant strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the tropical upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere in the extratropics accompanied by a pronounced intensification of the westerly winds in the lower stratosphere, and a strengthening of the westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics throughout the troposphere. The magnitudes of these changes, however, are somewhat weaker than for the scenarios associated with stronger global warming due to stronger climatic forcings, such as the SRES A1B scenario. Some of the climatic changes associated with the 2°C-stabilization are relatively strong with respect to the magnitude of the simulated global warming, i.e., the pronounced warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic region, the strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient at the northern high latitudes and the general increase in precipitation. Other climatic changes, i.e., the El Niño like warming pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the corresponding changes in the distribution of precipitation in the tropics and in the Southern Oscillation, are not as markedly pronounced as for the scenarios with a stronger global warming. A higher anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load (for 2030 as compared to the level in 2100 according to the SRES A1B scenario) generally weakens the future changes in climate, particularly for precipitation. The most pronounced effects occur in the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics, where also the main sources of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols are located. 相似文献
6.
利用1954-2010年地面气温、降水观测资料和月环流特征量、NCEP高度场再分析资料等,采用常规气候统计方法,分析了黑龙江省初夏6月气温、降水的气候特点,通过初夏6月气温、降水与北半球500 hPa高度场相关分析,建立起与中高纬度环流因子关系。结果表明：黑龙江省初夏气候异常与中高纬度环流异常有关,影响初夏气候异常的中高纬度环流因子主要有亚洲纬向环流指数,阿留申低压指数,亚洲区极涡面积指数,鄂霍次克海的阻塞高压指数等。在此基础上分析大气及中高纬度环流因子的背景,考虑外强迫因子海温的间接作用,掌握中高纬度环流因子的变化,是准确预测黑龙江省初夏气候的关键前提所在。 相似文献
7.
Peter Sonnenfeld 《Climatic change》1978,1(4):355-382
Periodic bursts of increased ultraviolet radiation, possibly caused by a long-term breakdown of the ozone layer in late Cretaceous to early Tertiary time, can explain the staggered extinctions of terrestrial, marine and flying reptiles, of invertebrate plankton feeders. Inherited protective devices and habits of surviving genera support this hypothesis. Increased radiation also explains the concurrent decrease in aridity indicated by the world-wide absence of marine salt and potash deposits from Maestrichtian, Danian, Paleocene and Eocene sediments, the poleward displacement of marine tropical faunas and the warm-temperate forests in high latitudes. A magnetic reversal is too brief an event to be responsible for the faunal changes; variations in solar radiation of the order of the Kelvin-Helmholtz time, or 30–40 million years, with superimposed shorter periodicities are a probable cause. 相似文献
8.
Haibo Du Zhengfang Wu Yinghua Jin Shengwei Zong Xiangjun Meng 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(3-4):659-670
This paper investigates monthly and seasonal precipitation–temperature relationships (PTRs) over Northeast China using a method proposed in this study. The PTRs are influenced by clouds, latent and sensible heat conversion, precipitation type, etc. In summer, the influences of these factors on temperature decrease are different for various altitudes, latitudes, longitudes, and climate types. Stronger negative PTRs ranging from ?0.049 to ?0.075 °C/mm mostly occur in the semi-arid region, where the cold frontal-type precipitation dominates. In contrast, weaker negative PTRs ranging from ?0.004 to ?0.014 °C/mm mainly distribute in Liaoning Province, where rain is mainly orographic rain controlled by the warm and humid air of East Asian summer monsoon. In winter, surface temperature increases owing to the release of latent heat and sensible heat when precipitation occurs. The stronger positive PTRs ranging from 0.963 to 3.786 °C/mm mostly occur at high altitudes and latitudes due to more release of sensible heat. The enhanced atmospheric counter radiation by clouds is the major factor affecting increases of surface temperature in winter and decreases of surface temperature in summer when precipitation occurs. 相似文献
9.
?rna Jama is the coldest section of cave within the Postojna Cave System. Mean annual air temperatures at the ?rna Jama 2 site are 5.6 °C (2015) and 5.7 °C (2016), and at the ?rna Jama 3 site 7.1 °C (2015) and 7.2 (2016), whereas the mean external air temperature was 10.3 °C (2015) and 10.0 °C (2016). In Lepe Jame, the passage most heavily visited by tourists, the mean cave-air temperature is 10.7 °C (2014–2017). ?rna Jama exhibits winter and summer temperature regimes. During warm periods (Tcave < Tout), it acts as a cold air trap, exchanging no air with the outside atmosphere. Under such conditions the cave-air temperature shows no short-term diurnal temperature oscillations. Cave-air temperature is significantly stable and affected only by elevation of the groundwater table, which is associated with precipitation. During cold periods (Tcave > Tout), ventilation takes place and dense, cold, outside air sinks into ?rna Jama because of the favourable cave entrance morphology. Recent ?rna Jama air temperature data (2014–2017) indicate a < 0.5 °C higher temperature than that recorded in historical data since 1933. ?rna Jama is the most appropriate place within the Postojna Cave System to study long-term climatic changes. There are hardly any tourist visits to the cave, and human impacts on the cave climate are essentially reduced. 相似文献
10.
Alice Favre Bruce Hewitson Mark Tadross Christopher Lennard Ruth Cerezo-Mota 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1473-1487
The characteristics of Southern Cut-off Lows (CoLs) are studied for the period 1979–2008. The systematic identification of CoLs is realized by applying an original automated scheme using mean daily geopotential height and air temperature at 500?hPa NCEP-DOE II Reanalysis data. From closed lows’ trajectories established from the Equator to the polar jet stream, extratropical lows are analyzed and the stage of cut-off is defined as a secluded low presenting a cold core. From 4,843 cases the general CoL features are presented and confirm several previous results such as the geographic distribution which shows that they are more frequent in the latitudinal band contained between 20°S and 45°S and in close proximity to the continents. On a seasonal time scale, CoLs are more numerous from late summer to autumn, with a maximum of frequency in March/April. In winter (June–July–August), they are fewer but deeper than during the rest of the year. In the median domain (~32.5°S), the annual cycle of the frequency is bimodal and present two peaks during transitional seasons. In this zone, the seasonal cycle varies in accordance with the Semiannual Oscillation. Thereby, when the meridional gradient of temperature/pressure is reinforced between mid and high latitudes, CoLs are more frequent in the median domain. Over the period 1979–2008, the annual CoLs’ frequency exhibits a positive trend of about 25%. This increase is associated with a widening of the latitudinal domain of occurrence equatorward as well as poleward. The trend is linked with an abrupt positive shift in the number of CoLs’ generation between 1998 and 1999. The geographical distribution of CoLs frequency varies significantly in accordance with El Ni?o Southern Oscillation with more CoL’s at lower (higher) latitudes during La Ni?a (El Ni?o) events, principally in the Southern Pacific. 相似文献
11.
Persistence in surface air temperature anomaly (SATA) time series over 1901–2010 observed at four cities: Nagpur, Pune, Mumbai and Delhi of India is examined using rescaled-range and predictability index. A gap of 40 years is observed in predictability maxima, which is linked with the short-range correlations. Seasonal analysis showed unpredictability of SATA during four seasons at Nagpur, during summers at Pune and Mumbai, and during monsoon and post-monsoon at Mumbai and Delhi. Significant change is observed after 1991 at Delhi, Nagpur and Mumbai with a respective increase of 1.7, 2.2 and 3.3 °C in surface air temperature (SAT) during 1901–2010. The spatial and temporal variations in the SAT in four cities are attributed to their geographic and climatic conditions. The results suggest the utility of the rescaled-range analysis and predictability index in exploring the changes in the climatic variables. 相似文献
12.
The orbital configuration at the end of the last interglacial, 115,000 years BP (115 ky BP), was such that the Northern Hemisphere seasonal contrast was decreased when compared to the last interglacial maximum, 126 ky BP. Climatic reconstructions argue for increased latitudinal surface temperature and salinity gradients in the North Atlantic at 115 ky BP compared to 126 ky BP. According to proxy measurements the high-latitude ocean freshening may be explained by enhanced northward atmospheric moisture advection which would have then led to decreased deep convection activity in the northern seas. To evaluate such re-adjustments of the atmospheric circulation to the insolation forcing changes, we have explored the changes in atmospheric energy balance and transport with two AGCM experiments, one for each climate. We show that the northward increase in static heat transport at 115 ky BP to 126 ky BP constitutes a first order response to the changing insolation. It tends to equalise the heat balance of the atmosphere. Despite sea surface temperatures fixed (SSTs) to present-day this feature is strongly amplified by the air–sea heat flux exchanges. By comparing with OAGCM experiments for the same periods, we find that the simulated surface ocean heat flux responses to insolation forcing are similar whether the ocean is allowed to vary or not. The latent heat transport does not undergo the same changes as the dry static one. On an annual basis, it decreases over the high northern latitudes. This is the result of summer modification of moisture sources and transient activity. The latter appears to affect latent heat transport much more than the dry static one. The winter response, however, differs from the summer response which dominates the annual mean. There is an enhanced northward atmospheric moisture advection during winter at 115 ky BP, which is responsible for the freshening of high-latitude ocean during this season. This result seems to confirm the hypothesis inferred from marine data. 相似文献
13.
The timing, length, and thermal intensity of the climatic growing season in China show statistically significant changes over the period of 1955 to 2000. Nationally, the average start of the growing season has shifted 4.6–5.5 days earlier while the average end has moved 1.8–3.7 days later, increasing the length of the growing season by 6.9–8.7 days depending on the base temperature chosen. The thermal intensity of the growing season has increased by 74.9–196.8 growing degree-days, depending on the base temperature selected. The spatial characteristics of the change in the timing and length of the growing season differ from the geographical pattern of change in temperatures over this period; but the spatial characteristics of change in growing degree-days does resemble the pattern for temperatures, with higher rates in northern regions. Nationally, two distinct regimes are evident over time: an initial period where growing season indicators fluctuate near a base period average, and a second period of rapidly increasing growing season length and thermal intensity. Growing degree-days are highly correlated with March-to-November mean air temperatures in all climatic regions of China; the length of the growing season is likewise highly correlated with March-to-November mean air temperatures except in east, southeast and southwest China at base temperature of 0°C and southeast China at base temperature of 5°C. The growing season start date appears to have the greater influence on the length of the growing season. In China, warmer growing seasons are also likely to be longer growing seasons. 相似文献
14.
Effects of projected climate change on the hydrology in the Mono Lake Basin, California 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The Californian Mono Lake Basin (MLB) is a fragile ecosystem, for which a 1983 ruling carefully balanced water diversions with ecological needs without the consideration of global climate change. The hydroclimatologic response to the impact of projected climatic changes in the MLB has not been comprehensively assessed and is the focus of this study. Downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs), using two emission scenarios (B1 and A2), were used to drive a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the effects on streamflow on the two significant inflows to the MLB, Lee Vining and Rush Creeks. For the MLB, the GCM ensemble output suggests significant increases in annual temperature, averaging 2.5 and 4.1 °C for the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, respectively, with concurrent small (1–3 %) decreases in annual precipitation by the end of the century. Annual total evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 10 mm by the end of the century for both emission scenarios. SWAT modeling results suggest a significant hydrologic response in the MLB by the end of the century that includes a) decreases in annual streamflow by 15 % compared to historical conditions b) an advance of the peak snowmelt runoff to 1 month earlier (June to May), c) a decreased (10–15 %) occurrence of ‘wet’ hydrologic years, and d) and more frequent (7–22 %) drought conditions. Ecosystem health and water diversions may be affected by reduced water availability in the MLB by the end of the century. 相似文献
15.
Mean profiles of virtual potential temperature, specific humidity, and the wind velocity components are obtained from aircraft data taken during the NORPAX trans-equatorial shuttle over the Pacific Ocean. The resulting parameters are used to calculate the similarity functions A,B,C, and D. These agree well with similarity functions obtained for the tropical Atlantic Ocean using GATE data (Fitzjarrald and Garstang, 1981). The similarity function A for wind speed over the tropical oceans is in good agreement with values obtained over land at higher latitudes. The tropical temperature and humidity functions, C and D, are lower than those obtained at higher latitudes, becoming negative as h/(-L) → 0. 相似文献
16.
Changes in climatic parameters are often given in terms of global averages even though large regional variability is generally observed. The study of regional tendencies provides not only supplementary conclusions to more large-scale oriented results but is also of particular interest to local policy-makers and resource managers to have detailed information regarding sensible and influential climatic parameters. In this study, changes in precipitation for the Balearic Islands (Spain) have been analyzed using data from 18 rain gauges with complete daily time series during the period 1951–2006 and two additional sites where only monthly totals were available. Tendencies for maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures have also been derived using data from three thermometric stations with daily time series for the period 1976–2006. The thermometric stations are located at the head of the runways in the airports of the three major islands of the archipelago, where urbanization has arguably not had a relevant impact on the registered values. The annual mean temperature in the mid-troposphere and lower stratosphere has also been analyzed using the Balearics radiosonde data for the period 1981–2006. Results show there is a negative tendency for annual precipitation (163 mm per century) with 85% significance on the sign of the trend. An abrupt decrease in mean yearly precipitation of 65 mm is objectively detected in the time series around 1980. Additionally, the analysis shows that light and heavy daily precipitation (up to 4 mm and above 64 mm, respectively) increase their contribution to the total annual, while the share from moderate-heavy precipitations (16–32 mm) is decreasing. Regarding the thermometric records, minimum temperatures increased at a rate of 5.8°C per century during the 31 years and maximum temperatures also increased at a rate of 5.0°C per century, both having a level of statistical significance for the sign of the linear trend above 99%. Temperatures in the mid-troposphere decreased at a rate of ??5.4°C per century while a tendency of ??7.8°C per century is found in the lower stratosphere. The level of statistical significance for the sign of both the tropospheric and stratospheric linear trends is above 98% despite the great inter-annual variability of both series. 相似文献
17.
Kuo-Wei Lan Ming-An Lee Chang Ik Zhang Pei-Yuan Wang Long-Jing Wu Kuo-Tien Lee 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):189-202
Grey mullet (Mugil cephalus L.) is one of the most important commercial species of fish in the coastal fisheries of Taiwan. In this study, we analyzed the long-term (1967–2009) records of grey mullet catch per unit effort (CPUE) in the Taiwan Strait (TS) to investigate the influences of climatic indices on the annual catch of grey mullet at multiple timescales. A wavelet analysis revealed that variations in climatic indices, namely the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Oceanic Niño Index, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) might have affected the abundance and migration behavior of grey mullet in the TS in winter. The CPUE of grey mullet showed significant high correspondence with the annual PDO index (R 2?=0.82, p?<0.01). The results suggested that the PDO affects the migration of grey mullet, but that increases in SSTs are a more important influence on the decreased catches of grey mullet after 1980. Mean SSTs increased 1.01 °C at the Chang-Yuen Rise in the TS from 1984 to 2009. The 20 °C isotherms in the TS in the winter also shifted from 23–24°N in 1958–1978 to north of 25°N after 1998. The fishing grounds of grey mullet also shifted to the north following changes in the 20 °C isotherm in the TS. 相似文献
18.
Mariana Barrucand Walter Vargas María Laura Bettolli 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2014,123(3-4):143-154
This paper studies the climatic conditions of warm and cold dry months in the humid and semi-humid Argentine region and some aspects of the regional circulation related to these cases. The climatic analysis of warm (temperatures above percentile 80) and cold (temperatures below percentile 20) dry months is based on precipitation and temperature data registered at reference stations over a period of at least 70 years, while the associated circulation is derived from daily data of geopotential height at 500 hPa from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 database. The reference station for the center of the country registered a greater number of warm dry months during both the warm season (October–March) and the cold season (April–September), whereas the reference stations in the north-east and center-east showed differences depending on the time of the year, with more cold dry months during the April–September season and more warm dry months in the October–March season. A classification of daily fields of geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa was used to analyze the atmospheric circulation related to warm and cold dry months. The circulation patterns were obtained by applying principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Findings show that some mid-level circulation patterns occur with a significant different frequency during the warm dry months or the cold dry months studied. Finally, cases of spatially extended precipitation-deficit conditions (hereinafter generalized droughts) were studied, noting dominant patterns that are coherent with the previous results. 相似文献
19.
The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are fundamental features of the Arctic climate system. The representation of the pan-Arctic melt and freeze onset (north of 60°N) is assessed in two reanalyses and eleven CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs). The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are retrieved from surface air temperature (SAT) across the land and sea-ice domains and evaluated against surface observations. While monthly averages of SAT are reasonably well represented in models, large model-observation and model–model disparities of timing of melt and freeze onset are evident. The evaluation against surface observations reveals that the ERA-Interim reanalysis performs the best, closely followed by some of the climate models. GCMs and reanalyses capture the seasonal melt-freeze transitions better in the central Arctic than in the marginal seas and across the land areas. The GCMs project that during the 21st century, the summer length—the period between melt and freeze onset—will increase over land by about 1 month at all latitudes, and over sea ice by 1 and 3 months at low and high latitudes, respectively. This larger summer-length increase over sea ice at progressively higher latitudes is related to a retreat of summer sea ice during the 21st century, since open water freezes roughly 40 days later than ice-covered ocean. As a consequence, by the year 2100, the freeze onset is projected to be initiated within roughly 10 days across the whole Arctic Ocean, whereas this transition varies by about 80 days today. 相似文献
20.
Two physically-models of solar radiation transmission and of a steady-state slope energy budget have been coupled. Using climatic observational inputs, averaged in 10-deg latitude bands, a systematic examination was made of changing surface temperatures and differences between surface and air temperatures as functions of varying slope angles (0 to 90 deg) and orientations (south-, west-, and north-facing). Along a latitudinal transect of the east coast of the Americas (northern hemisphere), two contrasting landscapes were examined: barren and grassy. No simple relationship was discovered among the factors regarding shortwave and longwave radiative absorption, components of the energy budget, and surface temperature trends, yet the response of temperatures on a latitudinal basis was systematic and orderly. Characteristically, a great diversity existed among surface temperatures of different slopes and orientations at any particular latitude. Such diversity was accentuated in the higher latitudes. The findings were assumed general enough to encompass most of the possible contrasts encountered in a real-world north-south transect.Dr. O'Rourke is currently a Visiting Scholar at UCLA from Litton Systems, Inc., Data Systems Division. 相似文献