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1.
Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project (TCDP) was initiated to understand the physical mechanisms involved in the large displacements of the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake. Continuous measurements of cores (including laboratory work) and a suite of geophysical downhole logs, including P - and S -wave sonic velocity, gamma ray, electrical resistivity, density, temperature, electrical borehole images and dipole-shear sonic imager, were acquired in Hole-A over the depth of 500–2003 m. Integrated studies of cores and logs facilitate qualitative and quantitative comparison of subsurface structures and physical properties of rocks. A total of 10 subunits were divided on the basis of geophysical characteristics. Generally, formation velocity and temperature increase with depth as a result of the overburden and thermal gradient, respectively. Gamma ray, resistivity, formation density, shear velocity anisotropy and density-derived porosity are primarily dependent on the lithology. Zones with changes of percentage of shear wave anisotropy and the fast shear polarization azimuth deduced from Dipole Shear-Imager (DSI) are associated with the appearance of fractures, steep bedding and shear zones. The fast shear wave azimuth is in good agreement with overall dip of the bedding (approximately 30° towards SE) and maximum horizontal compressional direction, particularly in the Kueichulin Formation showing strong shear wave velocity anisotropy. Bedding-parallel fractures are prevalent within cores, whereas minor sets of high-angle, NNW–SSE trending with N- and S-dipping fractures are sporadically distributed. The fault zone at depth 1111 m (FZA1111) is the Chi-Chi earthquake slip zone and could be a fluid conduit after the earthquake. The drastic change in fast shear wave polarization direction across the underlying, non-active Sanyi thrust at depth 1710 m reflects changes in stratigraphy, physical properties and structural geometry.  相似文献   

2.
Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a ML = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the ML = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.  相似文献   

3.
By inversion analysis of the baseline changes and horizontal displacements observed with GPS (Global Positioning System) during 1990–1994, a high-angle reverse fault was detected in the Shikoku-Kinki region, southwest Japan. The active blind fault is characterized by reverse dip-slip (0.7±0.2  m yr−1 within a layer 17–26  km deep) with a length of 208±5  km, a (down-dip) width of 9±2  km, a dip-angle of 51°±2° and a strike direction of 40°±2° (NE). Evidence from the geological investigation of subfaults close to the southwestern portion of the fault, two historical earthquakes ( M L=7.0, 1789 and 6.4, 1955) near the centre of the fault, and an additional inversion analysis of the baseline changes recorded by the nationwide permanent GPS array from 18 January to 31 December 1995 partially demonstrates the existence of the fault, and suggests that it might be a reactivation of a pre-existing fault in this region. The fact that hardly any earthquakes ( M L>2.0) occurred at depth on the inferred fault plane suggests that the fault activity was largely aseismic. Based on the parameters of the blind fault estimated in this study, we evaluated stress changes in this region. It is found that shear stress concentrated and increased by up to 2.1 bar yr−1 at a depth of about 20  km around the epicentral area of the 1995 January 17  Kobe earthquake ( M L=7.2, Japan), and that the earthquake hypocentre received a Coulomb failure stress of about 5.6 bar yr−1 during 1990–1994. The results suggest that the 1995  Kobe earthquake could have been induced or triggered by aseismic fault movement.  相似文献   

4.
Summary. The three-dimensional (3-D) shear wave structure of the mantle, down to the depth of about 900 km, is obtained by inverting waveforms of radial component seismograms. Radial component seismograms contain large amplitude overtone signals which circle the Earth as wave packets and are sometimes called X1, X2, X3, … We use data which contain R1, X1 and X2 and filtered between 2 and 10mHz. It is shown that, unless each seismogram is weighted, all seismograms are not fitted uniformly. Only data from large earthquakes are fitted and the final velocity anomalies are biased by the small number of large earthquake data. Resolution is good at shallow depths, becomes worse in the intermediate depth range between about 400 and 500 km and then becomes better at greater depth ranges (600–900km). Even though we use only spheroidal mode data, velocity anomalies in the shallow structure show excellent correlation with the age of the surface rocks of the Earth. In the deeper regions, between about 600 and 900km, South America shows a fast velocity anomaly which may indicate the slab penetration beyond 700 km there. Another region which shows a fast velocity anomaly is the Mariana trench, but other subduction regions do not show such features.  相似文献   

5.
Summary. Group velocities for first and second higher mode Rayleigh waves, in the frequency range 0.8–4.8 Hz, generated from a local earthquake of magnitude 3.7 M L in western Scotland, are measured at stations along the 1974 LISPB line. These provide detailed information about the crustal structure west of the line. The data divide the region into seven apparently homogeneous provinces. Averaged higher mode velocity dispersion curves for each province are analysed simultaneously using a linearized inversion technique, yielding regionalized shear velocity profiles down to a depth of 17 km into the upper crust. Shear wave velocity is between 3.0 and 3.4 km s−1 in the upper 2 km, with a slow increase to around 3.8 km s−1. P -wave models computed using these results agree with profiles from the LISPB and LUST refraction experiments.  相似文献   

6.
We have analysed the fundamental mode of Love and Rayleigh waves generated by 12 earthquakes located in the mid-Atlantic ridge and Jan Mayen fracture zone. Using the multiple filter analysis technique, we isolated the Rayleigh and Love wave group velocities for periods between 10 and 50  s. The surface wave propagation paths were divided into five groups, and average group velocities calculated for each group. The average group velocities were inverted and produced shear wave velocity models that correspond to a quasi-continental oceanic structure in the Greenland–Norwegian Sea region. Although resolution is poor at shallow depth, we obtained crustal thickness values of about 18  km in the Norwegian Sea area and 9  km in the region between Svalbard and Iceland. The abnormally thick crust in the Norwegian Sea area is ascribed to magmatic underplating and the thermal blanketing effect of sedimentary layers. Maximum crustal shear velocities vary between 3.5 and 3.9  km  s−1 for most paths. An average lithospheric thickness of 60  km was observed, which is lower than expected for oceanic-type structure of similar age. We also observed low shear wave velocities in the lower crust and upper mantle. We suggest that high heat flow extending to depths of about 30  km beneath the surface can account for the thin lithosphere and observed low velocities. Anisotropy coefficients of 1–5 per cent in the shallow layers and >7 per cent in the upper mantle point to the existence of polarization anisotropy in the region.  相似文献   

7.
Summary. The mid-crustal earthquake of 1973 March 9 (mb= 5.5, h ≤ 20 km) located 60 km south-west of Sydney, Australia, provides unambiguous evidence of contemporary thrust faulting in South-eastern Australia — a region of high heat flow and Cenozoic basaltic volcanism. Aftershock locations suggest a steeply dipping fault in the depth range from 8 to 24 km with a lateral extent of about 8 km. The mechanism solution is consistent with a tectonic stress field that is dominated by east—west horizontal compression. A seismic moment of 5.7 ± 1023± 20 per cent dyne-cm was computed from surface-wave amplitudes. Minimum values of slip and stress drop, 2 cm and 1 bar respectively, were estimated from the moment and a fault size taken' from aftershock locations.
Refinement modelling by a controlled Monte Carlo technique was used to provide unbiased models directly from multimode group velocities. The dispersion of fundamental and higher mode surface waves recorded at the digital high-gain station at Charters Towers, Queensland, and the WWSSN station at Adelaide, South Australia, is satisfied by crust- and upper-mantle models which have neither pronounced S-wave low-velocity zones nor thick high-velocity lids within 140 km of the Earth's surface. These models have subcrustal shear velocities of 4.20–4.32 km/s which are 0.4–0.5 km/s slower than Canadian shield shear velocities (CANSD).  相似文献   

8.
53 local earthquakes recorded at 2.5 km depth in the Cajon Pass scientific borehole are analysed for shear-wave splitting. The time delays between the split shear waves can be positively identified for 32 of the events. Modelling these observations of polarizations and time delays using genetic algorithms suggests that the anisotropic structure near Cajon Pass has orthorhombic symmetry. The polarization of the shear waves and the inferred strike of the stress-aligned fluid-filled intergranular microcracks and pores suggests that the maximum horizontal compressional stress direction is approximately N13°W. This is consistent with previous results from earthquake source mechanisms and the right-lateral strike-slip motion on the nearby San Andreas Fault, but not with stresses measured within the uppermost 3 km of the borehole. This study suggests that the San Andreas Fault is driven by deeper tectonic stresses and the present understanding of a weak and frictionless San Andreas Fault may need to be modified. The active secondary faulting and folding close to the fault are probably driven by the relatively shallow stress as measured in the 3.5 km deep borehole.  相似文献   

9.
Summary. P -wave seismograms at ranges less than 10 km are synthesized by asymptotic ray theory and by summation of Gaussian beams for point sources located in a low-velocity wedge surrounding a fault. The computations are performed using models of the wedge inferred from the analysis of reflection and refraction experiments across the San Andreas and Hayward-Calaveras faults. Calculations in these models show that the 10–20Hz vertical displacements of earthquakes located at 3–10km depth are amplified by up to an order of magnitude in a 1–2km wide region centred on the fault trace compared to displacements predicted by laterally homogeneous models of the crust. This amplification is not cancelled by high attentuation in the fault zone and compensates for the reduction in amplitudes directly above the source predicted from the radiation pattern of a strike-slip earthquake. Depending on the source depth of the earthquake and the structure and velocity contrast of the wedge, multiple triplications in the travel-time curve of direct P - and S -waves will occur at stations in the fault zone. A wedge model successfully predicts the triplications observed in the P waveforms of aftershocks of the Coyote Lake earthquake recorded in the fault zone, showing that body waves from microearthquakes can be used to determine the three-dimensional velocity structure of the fault zone. The amplification, waveform complexity, and distortion of ray paths introduced by the low- velocity wedge suggest that its effects should be included in the interpretation of strong ground motions and travel times observed in the fault zone. For realistic models of the wedge, asymptotically approximate methods of calculating the body waveforms are strictly valid for frequencies greater than 20Hz. Numerical methods may be necessary to calculate accurately the wavefield at lower frequencies.  相似文献   

10.
We infer the lithospheric structure in eastern Turkey using teleseismic and regional events recorded by 29 broad-band stations from the Eastern Turkey Seismic Experiment (ETSE). We combine the surface wave group velocities (Rayleigh and Love) with telesesimic receiver functions to jointly invert for the S -wave velocity structure, Moho depth and mantle-lid (lithospheric mantle) thickness. We also estimated the transverse anisotropy due to Love and Rayleigh velocity discrepancies. We found anomalously low shear wave velocities underneath the Anatolian Plateau. Average crustal thickness is 36 km in the Arabian Plate, 44 km in Anatolian Block and 48 km in the Anatolian Plateau. We observe very low shear wave velocities at the crustal portion (30–38 km) of the northeastern part of the Anatolian Plateau. The lithospheric mantle thickness is either not thick enough to resolve it or it is completely removed underneath the Anatolian Plateau. The shear velocities and anisotropy down to 100 km depth suggest that the average lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary in the Arabian Plate is about 90 and 70 km in Anatolian block. Adding the surface waves to the receiver functions is necessary to constrain the trade-off between velocity and the thickness. We find slower velocities than with the receiver function data alone. The study reveals three different lithospheric structures in eastern Turkey: the Anatolian plateau (east of Karliova Triple Junction), the Anatolian block and the northernmost portion of the Arabian plate. The boundary of lithospheric structure differences coincides with the major tectonic boundaries.  相似文献   

11.
ScS wave splitting of deep earthquakes around Japan   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
ScS wave splitting of five deep earthquakes in subduction zones near Japan is investigated using horizontal seismograms recorded al JMA stations. For each earthquake, we clearly observe uniform ScS wave splitting in all stations over Japan, especially for the events located south of Honshu in 1982, 1984 and 1993. However, the directions of fast-polarized waves of these events differed by a maximum of about 50° from one another. The orientation of fast-polarized waves in the 1982 event was NNW-SSE; those in the two later events WNW-ESE. We also recognize this discrepancy in the results of the analysis of the 1971 Sea of Okhotsk event reported by Fukao (1984). The Sakhalin Islands event in 1990 reveals a linear particle motion without such a change in direction of the second arrivals, implying no anisotropy. These observations are interpreted as indicating an anisotropic region within the slab near the earthquake sources but not beneath the receivers, since the orientations of fast-polarized waves recorded at each station are not common to all the earthquakes. Furthermore, we consider that anisotropy exists non-uniformly within the slab. The event in 1982, which occurred in almost the same area as those in 1984 and 1993, showed a fast direction different from the events in 1984 and 1993. The 1982 event was 179 km deep, but the two later events were at 398 km and 360 km, respectively. The fast direction observed from the 1982 event is parallel to the fossil plate motion, whereas those from the events in 1984 and 1993 are parallel to the compression axis within the subducting slab. The depth of 400 km is a phase boundary, where olivine changes to β spinel. We consider that the most likely cause of the change in anisotropy direction is the re-orientation of crystals associated with the phase change of olivine to β spinel due to subduction of the slab.  相似文献   

12.
Shear wave splitting measurements from S arrivals of local earthquakes recorded at the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) broadband sensor SNZO are used to determine a basic anisotropic structure for the subduction zone in the Wellington region. With the use of high-frequency filters, fast anisotropic polarization ( φ ) and splitting time ( δt ) measurements typical of crustal anisotropy are evident, but the larger splitting expected from the mantle is often not resolved. The small splitting seen agrees well with the results of previous studies concerning shallow crustal anisotropy. With the use of lower-frequency filters, measurements more consistent with mantle anisotropy are made. Anisotropy of 4.4 ± 0.9 per cent with a fast polarization of 29° ± 38° is calculated for the subducting slab, from 20 to 70  km depth. Using this result in addition to the results of previous studies, a model is proposed. The model requires a frequency-dependent anisotropy of less than 1.4 per cent when measured with a period of ~2  s to be present in the sub-slab mantle.
Separate from this population, a band of events in northern Cook Strait with an 86° ± 10° fast polarization is seen. This is at about 40° from the strike of the Hikurangi margin, and suggests a source of shear strain 40° removed from that found in the majority of the region. The cause of this is probably a deformation in the subducting slab in this region, as it moves towards a greater incline to the south.  相似文献   

13.
Summary. The section of the North Anatolian Fault lying near the city of Izmit, at the east of the Marmara Sea, has been identified as a seismic gap and the possible site of a future major earthquake. Previously published studies of records from an earthquake swarm within the gap (TDP1 and TDP2) provided the first evidence that shear-wave splitting occurs in earthquake source regions, a conclusion since verified by many studies at other locations. A third field study (TDP3) was mounted in the Izmit region during the summer of 1984. Observations were made over an eight-month period and included geomagnetic and geoelectric measurements in addition to a series of observations utilising dense arrays of three-component seismometers. Earthquake activity in the principal study area was monitored over a period of eight months. Records showed features similar to those observed in the earlier studies. In particular: (1) almost all shear waves emerging within the shear-wave window displayed shear-wave splitting; and (2) the polarizations of the first arriving (faster) split shear-waves showed sub-parallel alignments, characteristic of propagation through a distribution of parallel vertical cracks striking perpendicular to the minimum compressional stress.
These and other observations support the conclusion of earlier studies – that the upper crust is pervaded by distributions of micro-cracks aligned by stress, known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy. A search for time dependence in shear-wave phenomena has revealed temporal variations in the delays between the split shear-waves throughout the course of the TDP3 study, but as yet this has not been correlated with specific earthquake activity.  相似文献   

14.
Summary. The paper gives the results of a study of the anisotropy of seismic wave velocities within the Ashkhabad test field in Central Asia. The anisotropy was studied by analysing variations in the values of apparent velocities of first arrivals for epicentral distances ranging from 30 to 130 km and by analysing the delays (Δ ts1-s2 ) between the arrival times of shear waves with different polarizations.
The velocities of P -waves vary with azimuth from 5.3 to 6.27 km s-1 and the velocities of S -waves vary from 3.15 to 3.5 km s-1.
The delay times Δ tS1 - S2 depend on the direction of the propagation. The character of the variation of the propagation velocity of the longitudinal wave, the presence of two differently polarized shear waves S 1 and S 2 propagating at different velocities, and the character of the distribution of Δ tS1 - S2 on the stereogram suggest that the symmetry of the anisotropic medium is close to hexagonal with a nearly horizontal symmetry axis coinciding with the direction of maximal velocity. The azimuth of the symmetry axis of the medium is 140° and coincides with the direction of geological faults.  相似文献   

15.
Shear-wave splitting from local deep earthquakes is investigated to clarify the volume and the location of two anisotropic bodies in the mantle wedge beneath central Honshu, Japan. We observe a spatial variation in splitting parameters depending on the combination of sources and receivers, nearly N–S fast in the northern region, nearly E–W fast in the southern region and small time delays in the eastern region. Using forward modelling, two models with 30 and 10 per cent anisotropy are tested by means of a global search for the locations of anisotropic bodies with various volumes. The optimum model is obtained for 30 per cent anisotropy, which means a 5 per cent velocity difference between fast and slow polarized waves. The northern anisotropic body has a volume of 1.00° (longitude) × 0.5° (latitude) × 75 km (depth), with the orientation of the symmetry axis being N20°E. The southern anisotropic body has a volume of 1.25° × 1.25° × 100 km with the symmetry axis along N95°E. Our results show that the anisotropic bodies are located in low-velocity and low- Q regions of the mantle. This, together with petrological data and the location of volcanoes in the arc, suggests that the possible cause of the anisotropy is the preferred alignment of cracks filled with melt.  相似文献   

16.
We recover the gross space–time characteristics of high-frequency (HF) radiator of the great Sumatra-Andaman islands earthquake of 2004 December 26 ( M w= 9.1–9.3) using the time histories of the power of radiated HF P waves. To determine these time histories we process teleseismic P waves at 36 BB stations, using, in sequence: (1) bandpass filtering (four bands: 0.4–1.2, 1.2–2, 2–3 and 3–4 Hz); (2) squaring wave amplitudes, making 'power signals' for each band and (3) stripping the propagation-related distortion ( P coda, etc.) from the power signal and thus recovering source time function for HF power. In step (3) we employ an inverse filter constructed from an empirical Green's function, which is estimated as the power signal from an aftershock. For each ray we thus obtain signals with relatively well-defined end and no coda. From these signals we extract: total duration (joint estimate for all four bands) and temporal centroid of signal power for each band. Through linear inversion, the set of duration values for a set of rays delivers estimates of the rupture stopping point and stopping time. Similarly, the set of temporal centroids can be inverted to obtain the position of the space–time centroid of HF energy radiator. The quality of inversion for centroid is acceptable for lower-frequency bands but deteriorates for higher-frequency bands where only a fraction of stations provide useful data. For the source length and duration the following joint estimates were obtained: 1241 ± 224 km, 550 ± 10 s. The estimated stopping point position corresponds to the northern extremity of the aftershock zone. Spatial HF radiation centroids are located at distances 350–700 km from the epicentre, in a systematic way: the higher is the frequency, the farther is the centroid from the epicentre. Average rupture propagation velocity is estimated as 2.25 km s–1.  相似文献   

17.
High resolution topographic data along fault zones are important aids in the delineation of recently active breaks. A 15 km-long portion of the south-central San Andreas Fault (SAF) along the southern Cholame segment contains well preserved tectonic landforms such as benches, troughs, scarps, and aligned ridges that indicate recurring earthquake slip. Recently acquired LiDAR topographic data along the entire southern SAF (“B4” project) have shot densities of 3–4 m− 2. Computed from the LiDAR returns, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of 0.25 to 0.5 m resolution using local binning with inverse distance weighting and 0.8 m or larger search radii depict the tectonic landforms at paleoseismic sites well enough to assess them confidently. Mapping of recently active breaks using a LiDAR-only based approach compares well with aerial photographic and field based methods. The fault zone varies in width from meters to nearly 1 km and is comprised of numerous en echelon meter to kilometer-length overlapping sub parallel fault surfaces bounding differentially moving blocks that elongate parallel to the SAF. The semantic variations of what constitutes “active” and the importance of secondary traces influence the breadth and complexity of the resulting fault trace maps.  相似文献   

18.
Summary. The deep structure of the Faeroe–Shetland Channel has been investigated as part of the North Atlantic Seismic Project. Shot lines were fired along and across the axis of the Channel, with recording stations both at sea and on adjacent land areas. At 61°N, 1.7 km of Tertiary sediments overlies a 3.9–4.5 km s-1 basement interpreted as the top of early Tertiary volcanics. A main 6.0–6.6 km s-1 crustal refractor interpreted as old oceanic crust occurs at about 9 km depth. The Moho (8.0 ° 0.2 km s-1) is at about 15–17 km depth. There is evidence that P n may be anisotropic beneath the Faeroe–Shetland Channel. Arrivals recorded at land stations show characteristics best explained by scattering at an intervening boundary which may be the continent–ocean crustal contact or the edge of the volcanics.
The Moho delay times at the shot points, determined by time-term analysis, show considerable variation along the axis of the Channel. They correlate with the basement topography, and the greatest delays occur over the buried extension of the Faeroe Ridge at about 60° 15'N, where they are nearly 1 s more than the delays at 61°N after correction for the sediments. The large delays are attributed to thickening of the early Tertiary volcanic layer with isostatic downsagging of the underlying crust and uppermost mantle in response to the load, rather than to thickening of the main crustal ayer.
The new evidence is consistent with deeply buried oceanic crust beneath the Faeroe–Shetland Channel, forming a northern extension of Rockall Trough. The seabed morphology has been grossly modified by the thick and laterally variable pile of early Tertiary volcanic rocks which swamped the region, accounting for the anomalous shallow bathymetry, the transverse ridges and the present narrowness of the Channel.  相似文献   

19.
We use teleseismic waveform analysis and locally recorded aftershock data to investigate the source processes of the 2004 Baladeh earthquake, which is the only substantial earthquake to have occurred in the central Alborz mountains of Iran in the modern instrumental era. The earthquake involved slip at 10–30 km depth, with a south-dipping aftershock zone also restricted to the range 10–30 km, which is unusually deep for Iran. These observations are consistent with co-seismic slip on a south-dipping thrust that projects to the surface at the sharp topographic front on the north side of the Alborz. This line is often called the Khazar Fault, and is assumed to be a south-dipping thrust which bounds the north side of the Alborz range and the south side of the South Caspian Basin, though its actual structure and significance are not well understood. The lack of shallower aftershocks may be due to the thick pile of saturated, overpressured sediments in the South Caspian basin that are being overthrust by the Alborz. A well-determined earthquake slip vector, in a direction different from the overall shortening direction across the range determined by GPS, confirms a spatial separation ('partitioning') of left-lateral strike-slip and thrust faulting in the Alborz. These strike-slip and thrust fault systems do not intersect within the seismogenic layer on the north side, though they may do so on the south. The earthquake affected the capital, Tehran, and reveals a seismic threat posed by earthquakes north of the Alborz, located on south-dipping thrusts, as well as by earthquakes on the south side of the range, closer to the city.  相似文献   

20.
The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.  相似文献   

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