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1.
Although studies have demonstrated significant associations between ENSO events and dengue fever, few have explored regional impacts on dengue fever of separate events. This study explores the impacts of two ENSO events on regional patterns of dengue/ dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia. Data consist of monthly cases of dengue/DHF from 1992 to 2001 for each of Indonesia's 27 provinces, and monthly figures for rainfall, rainfall anomalies, temperature, relative humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We conducted Pearson correlation analyses for each independent variable against dengue/DHF incidence, using a direct month‐by‐month correlation and applying a lag of between one and six months to each variable with respect to dengue/DHF incidence. Based on the SOI value, we identified two ENSO events between 1992 and 2001. To explore each event, we created two dummy variables and in regression analyses for eight provinces. The variance of between 12.9 per cent and 24.5 per cent in provincial dengue/DHF incidence is explained by two or three climate variables in each of the provinces (p < 0.01 to 0.1). During the 1997/98 event, the explained variance increased by between 7 per cent and 15 per cent in provinces whose climate regimes were most affected by this event. This study demonstrates that indicators of ENSO such as the SOI may assist in the forecast of potential dengue/DHF incidence and distribution in Indonesia. 相似文献
2.
There are conflicting results from research on the impacts of temperature and rainfall on malaria prevalence. As a result predicting malaria prevalence still remains a challenge. Generating relevant information on the role of temperature, rainfall, and humidity on malaria prevalence at different geographic scales is critical to efforts to combat the burden of prevalence. For better understanding of climate variability and the impacts on malaria prevalence, this study examined the varying spatial and seasonal distribution in malaria prevalence over time in Ghana. We used trajectory and time series analyses for temporal distribution and conducted GIS-based analyses of the spatial distribution of yearly malaria incidence and climate variables. We observed that the national annual malaria incidence has increased. Considerable inter-annual variations were also detected in the intensity of incidence across regions characterized with varying rainfall and temperature regimes. The results indicated that temperature and humidity have some association with malaria prevalence in Ghana. Although annual rainfall in the model was found to be less significant, there is evidence of rainfall as a predictor of malaria in Ghana. These findings show that public health resource allocations should focus on the areas with the highest malaria risk in Ghana. 相似文献
3.
P. P. Kruiver Y. S. Kok M. J. Dekkers C. G. Langereis & C. Laj 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,136(3):757-770
In the pseudo-Thellier method for relative palaeointensity determinations (Tauxe et al. 1995) the slope of the NRM intensity left after AF demagnetization versus ARM intensity gained at the same peak field is used as a palaeointensity measure. We tested this method on a marine core from the Azores, spanning the last 276 kyr. We compared the pseudo-Thellier palaeointensity record with the conventional record obtained earlier by Lehman et al . (1996 ), who normalized NRM by SIRM. The two records show similar features: intensity lows with deviating palaeomagnetic directions at 40–45 ka and at 180–190 ka. The first interval is associated with the Laschamps excursion, while the 180–190 ka low represents the Iceland Basin excursion (Channell et al. 1997). The pseudo-Thellier method, in combination with a jackknife resampling scheme, provides error estimates on the palaeointensity.
Spectral analysis of the rock magnetic parameters and the palaeointensity estimates shows orbitally forced periods, particularly 23 kyr for climatic precession. This suggests that palaeointensity is still slightly contaminated by climate. Fuzzy c -means cluster analysis of rock magnetic and geochemical parameters yields a seven-cluster model of predominantly calcareous clusters and detrital clusters. The clusters show a strong correlation with climate, for example samples from detrital clusters predominantly appear during rapid warming. Although both the pseudo-Thellier palaeointensity ma and fuzzy clusters show climatic influences, we have not been able to find an unambiguous connection between the clusters and m a . 相似文献
Spectral analysis of the rock magnetic parameters and the palaeointensity estimates shows orbitally forced periods, particularly 23 kyr for climatic precession. This suggests that palaeointensity is still slightly contaminated by climate. Fuzzy c -means cluster analysis of rock magnetic and geochemical parameters yields a seven-cluster model of predominantly calcareous clusters and detrital clusters. The clusters show a strong correlation with climate, for example samples from detrital clusters predominantly appear during rapid warming. Although both the pseudo-Thellier palaeointensity m
4.
晚更新世晚期北疆内陆型气候环境变迁* 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
选取具有干旱区特征的内陆湖泊纹泥沉积,采用多种分析手段进行综合研究,本文探索北疆地区3.5万年以来的环境演变中物理、化学、生物过程相互作用状况,建立内陆型气候的环境演变模式,提出本区属冷湿暖干型气候,且以冷湿环境为主的区域特征。 相似文献
5.
横断山区泥石流空间格局和激发雨量分异性研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
地形、降雨等环境因子决定了泥石流的时空分布特征,理解泥石流与这些因子的关系有助于区域泥石流灾害风险评估与防灾减灾工作。以横断山区为研究区域,选取降水、气候、地貌、地质、土地覆盖、土壤厚度、高差势能以及湿度指数等因子,利用地理探测器和灰度关联分析等方法,探讨了环境因子与泥石流沟空间分布的关系以及降水特征与泥石流灾害的时间关联性。结果表明,湿度指数是决定泥石流沟空间格局的最主要因子,其次是高差势能和土壤厚度,多年平均分布的降水特征对泥石流沟分布的影响较小。泥石流灾害事件与降水特征的时间关联具有较大的区域异质性。泥石流发生地的激发雨量、湿度指数、高差及土壤厚度的统计分布在不同地貌、地质和气候单元中有明显差异。这表明泥石流预警不仅需要考虑雨量等激发因子,还必须考虑其他影响因素的空间差异性。 相似文献
6.
To block human–mosquito interactions by eliminating dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti L. and Aedes albopictus Skuse have been considered the main strategies for dengue prevention. Spatial targeting of dengue risk areas is the highest priority for implementing control measures. However, the frequency of human-Aedes mosquito contacts as human factors for assessing the risk of dengue has not been taken into account by past studies. The objective of this study is to clarify the geographic effects of crowd-gathering places on the frequency of dengue vector for assessing the spatial risk of exposure to dengue in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to integrate crowd-gathering places and ovitrap locations for investigating potential human–mosquito contacts. A negative binominal regression was used to estimate the spatial risk of dengue by integrating vector mosquitoes from the ovitrap survey, urban environmental risk factors and human crowd-gathering places as the surrogate of human activities. We also compared the estimated spatial risk of exposure to dengue with traditional approaches. Our results indicated that the spatial distribution of the residential populations is not consistent with the locations of social activities. Additionally, people closer to crowd-gathering places have a higher frequency of contact with Ae. aegypti than with Ae. albopictus larvae. The dengue risk is caused by the human-Aedes aegypti contacts concentrated around city centers, while the risk caused by the human-Aedes albopictus contacts is distributed around the city boundary. Our study concluded that only relying on infected human cases or the abundance of vector mosquitoes is not enough for assessing the spatial risk of dengue. This reliance could ignore the areas with frequent vector existence and; therefore, result in the underestimated risk of dengue transmission. This study demonstrates the methodological framework for estimating the potential dengue risk and identifies the crowd-gathering places that facilitate dengue transmission. 相似文献
7.
Based on 740 stations of daily precipitation datasets in China, the precipitation- concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation-concentration period (PCP) of different intensity durative precipitation events were calculated to analyze their statistical characteristics, mainly including spatial and temporal distributions, variations and climatic trends of the two parameters of the durative heavy precipitation events in China. It is proved that these two parameters of heavy rainfall can display the temporal inhomogeneity in the precipitation field. And it is also found that there is a good positive relationship between the precipitation-concentration degree and annual rainfall amount in the Eastern and Central China. This method can be applied in flood assessment and climate change fields. 相似文献
8.
中国强降水过程时空集中度气候趋势 总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23
基于日降水资料序列提出一种度量不同强度降水过程时空集中程度的指标,根据中国740个气象站逐日降水资料研究分析了我国强降水过程集中度和集中期及其相关统计特征,结果表明暴雨过程年内集中度与年降水量正相关区与中国降水空间分布有很好的一致性;在对大范围洪涝灾害研究方面,暴雨过程年内集中度和集中期在定量地表征降水量在时空场上的非均匀性时有更高分辨力; 暴雨过程年内集中度比较清晰地反映出长江流域、江淮地区洪涝增加的趋势及黄河中下游、华北强降水减少的趋势。该方法可直接应用到评估水旱灾害及其气候影响等领域。 相似文献
9.
This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic vari-ability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann–Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim’s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the con-dition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%–16% when surface air temperature rises by 1℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their wa-tershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their funda-mental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt. 相似文献
10.
Richard W. Ferdinand 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,134(3):818-830
The investigation of L g attenuation characteristics in the region bounding the western branch of the East African rift system using digital recordings from a seismic network located along the rift between Lake Rukwa and Lake Malawi is reported. A set of 24 recordings of L g waves from 12 regional earthquakes has been used for the determination of anelastic attenuation, Q Lg , and regional body-wave magnitude, m b Lg , scale. The events used have body-wave magnitudes, m b , between 4.6 and 5.5, which have been determined teleseismically and listed in ISC bulletins. The data were time-domain displacement amplitudes measured at 10 different frequencies (0.7–5.0 Hz). Q Lg and its frequency dependence, η , in the region can be represented in the form Q Lg = (186.2 ± 6.5) f (0.78±0.05) . This model is in agreement with models established in other active tectonic regions. The L g -wave-based magnitude formula for the region is given by m b Lg = log A + (3.76 ± 0.38) log D − (5.72 ± 1.06), where A is a half-peak-to-peak maximum amplitude of the 1 s L g wave amplitude in microns and D is the epicentral distance in kilometres. Magnitude results for the 12 regional earthquakes tested are in good agreement with the ISC body-wave magnitude scale. 相似文献
11.
《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2018,39(1):107-116
Climate change has become a serious concern worldwide owing to its multifaceted impact upon the physical as well as socio‐economic environment (IPCC, 2013). Vulnerability to climate change is much higher in the developing countries like India, where the economy is mainly agro‐based and productivity from the agricultural sector is dependent upon summer monsoon rainfall. Hence, assessing the quantitative relationship between vegetation patterns and climatic influence has become an increasingly important study conducted on regional and global scales. As vegetation cover plays a key role in conserving the natural environment, studying the spatio‐temporal trend of vegetation is crucial in identifying changes in the natural environment. We analysed the spatial responses of SPOT‐VGT NDVI to TRMM based rainfall during a sixteen year period (1998–2013) in the Bundelkhand region of Central India. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has proven to be a strong indicator of global vegetation productivity. Among climatic factors, rainfall robustly influences both spatial and temporal outline of NDVI. In this study, we used linear regression for analysing the statistical relationship among NDVI and rainfall and their trends. The study reveals a varying pattern of vegetation dynamics in response to rainfall over the area. 相似文献
12.
暖湿背景下新疆逐时降水变化特征研究 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
基于新疆16个国家基准站1991-2013年5~9月逐小时的降水观测资料,分析研究了新疆夏半年逐时降水的时空分布和日变化特征。结果表明:新疆小时降雨频数呈现西北多、东南少的特征;4 mm·h-1以上量级雨强的强降雨高频时段北疆自西向东依次出现在下午、前半夜和后半夜,南疆多出现在夜间;新疆各区域逐时降水频率的日变化特征明显不同,各区域逐时降水分布并不均匀:塔城北部、阿勒泰地区日降水分布呈现双峰型特征,北疆其余地区则是较为一致的单峰型;南疆各区域以双峰型居多。南北疆0.1 mm·h-1以上、4 mm·h-1以上量级雨强的出现总频次均呈明显增加趋势,进入21世纪10年代南疆强降雨频次增加更显著。 相似文献
13.
A.P. DYKES 《The Geographical journal》2000,166(1):63-80
Meteorological parameters were monitored on an hourly basis over ten months during 1991–2, from altitudes of 45 and 913 metres in an undisturbed tropical rainforest in Brunei, near the north-west coast of Borneo. In general, the observed characteristics of the climate accorded with the regional meteorological systems and with published results from other studies in northern Borneo, although a greater degree of temporal variability was apparent. The seasonal variability was probably enhanced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation event of early 1992. Rainfall events were typically highly variable in nature, although storm intensity profiles were broadly similar. High magnitude and high intensity events are common among the large total number of events. More rain, of generally higher intensity, fell on the mountain. The total daily solar energy receipt was similar at both altitudes owing to greater cloud cover on the mountain. Temperatures varied significantly with season at both altitudes and the mean lapse rate was 4.5°C/km. Relative humidity at 913 metres tended to be significantly higher during the day and significantly lower at night than at 45 metres. Wind directions were dominantly controlled by local mountain and valley wind systems. Wind speeds were significantly higher during the dry seasons and at the higher altitude. Previous studies have shown that small but significant variations in meteorological parameters can have distinct ecological responses, and rainfall characteristics are important controls on geomorphological processes. 相似文献
14.
采用多种统计方法,解释1951~2010年中国年代际累积暴雨不断增加的现象。结果表明：快速城镇化因素极有可能是中国大面积暴雨增加的主因。在时间序列上,城镇化因素对中国年际暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强的方差解释分别为61.54%,58.48%,65.54%;自然因子方差解释分别为24.30%,26.23%,21.92%。在空间格局上,中国县级总人口密度和低能见度日数年均值的面板数据与中国年代际累积暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强显著相关,其空间相关系数随年代推移而不断增加,进一步表明快速城镇化因素可能触发了中国年代际大面积暴雨的显著增加。 相似文献
15.
Palaeomagnetic and geochronological measurements have been carried out on the late Pleistocene basaltic–andesitic unit of Monte Chirica–Costa Rasa, on the island of Lipari (Aeolian Archipelago). The lava flow sequence is about 10 m thick and has been sampled in detail. Magnetic properties are rather uniform; Curie temperatures of 540° to 580 °C, and the saturation IRM reached at applied values of 0.1 T point to titanomagnetite as the main magnetization carrier. Thermal and AF demagnetization have shown the presence of secondary magnetization components. These were removed mostly at 450°–500 °C or 20–30 mT, indicating a highly stable ChRM with directions from transitional to reverse. Where a ChRM could not be isolated by application of the demagnetization techniques, the converging remagnetization circles method gave a mean ChRM value fully comparable with that obtained from other methods. 40 Ar/39 Ar determinations were performed on two lava flows, in the lower and upper parts of the sequence. The former shows a transitional ChRM direction and a whole-rock age of 157±12 ka, the latter a reverse direction, a whole-rock age of 143±17 ka and a ground-mass age of 128±23 ka. The radiometric data and the reconstructed stratigraphy, which indicate ages of 150±10 ka and 104±3.5 ka, respectively, for the volcanic units at the bottom and top of the Monte Chirica–Costa Rasa unit, suggest that the reverse directions recorded in Lipari are related to the Blake event. 相似文献
16.
新疆地区药用植物地理分布模式和气候特征研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
植物分布与区域气候有密切关系。新疆多样性地形地貌形成各具特色的区域气候特征,孕育了丰富的药用植物资源。依据新疆地区药用植物地理分布和区域气候两方面研究药用植物地理分布模式和气候特征,基于第三次中药资源普查数据得到新疆地区甘草、紫草、麻黄、肉苁蓉、枸杞等主要中药材空间分布图,并计算相关地区的物种丰富度和多样性指数。结果显示：新疆天山山脉地区药材种类丰富度最高,是新疆野生药材主要的分布区。同时,基于ArcGIS平台将年均温、年降水量等10个气象因子数据进行空间分类,得到气候因子数值在新疆地区的空间分布。新疆地区气候特征是以天山为分界线的南疆年平均温度和活动积温明显高于北疆,原因是天山山脉的屏障作用;降水与我国内陆格局不同,新疆降水量空间分布呈现东少西多格局;新疆最具特色的两个地区：一是伊犁塔城地区气候温和,雨量充沛,药材种类繁多;二是新疆南疆的喀什地区,较高的1月份最低温保证了植物的越冬需要,是植物栽培的必要条件。 相似文献
17.
中国西南山区蒸散发能力的季节和空间变化 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
AxelThomas 《山地学报》2002,20(4):385-393
从全球范围来看，中国西南山区位地热带与亚热带，印度洋季风与中国季风的过渡带，属于季风气候。5－9月的降水占全年平均降水量的70％，整个山区随海拔高度的变化形成了很多气候带，与中国东部相比，中国西南山区旱季（冬季）温暖，光照充足，天空晴郎。根据中国西南山区36个（主要是云南的）气象站观测资料，利用彭曼修正式估算了中国西南山蒸散发能力（PET）。观测资料统计显示这些气象站位于同一气候区的不同类型区域，本文中估算了不同类型区域的月平均PET的递减率。各种气候类型区域的季节变化反映了季风影响的程度，PET的年内变化可划分为季风前期，季风期和季风后期。PET的区域月递减率在1mm/10mm0--5mm/100mm间变动，较低的云雾或云层等局部气候将太阳辐射控制在低水平，影响PET的递减率的正，负变化，由太阳辐射和风速主导大部分区域PET的最大值出现在季风来临前的2－5月份。在6－9月的季风期，中国西南山区受西南季风控制，整个区域气候变化比较一致，PET的值较小，其空间变化也较小。 相似文献
18.
1960—2017年太湖流域不同等级降水时空特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于太湖流域1960—2017年逐日降水数据,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、R/S分析等方法,分析太湖流域不同等级降水的时空变化特征,并探讨了不同等级降水对年降水的影响。结果表明：1）近60年来,流域小雨发生率最高,为73.55%;年总降水量中,中雨量所占比例最大,为32.05%。小雨发生率呈显著减少趋势,暴雨贡献率呈显著增加趋势。2）太湖流域大雨、暴雨的降水量和降水日数都呈显著增加,小雨日数显著减少,小雨强度、年总降水强度显著增强。3）不同等级降水变化趋势的空间分布存在明显差异。小雨日数与年总降水日数,以及小雨强度与年总降水强度的变化趋势空间格局相一致。中雨日数、大雨日数、暴雨日数变化趋势的空间分布与其对应的降水量变化趋势的空间格局相似。4）R/S分析结果显示,小雨、暴雨、年总降水相关指标（小雨量除外）都表现出较强的持续性,未来变化趋势与过去相一致。5）近60年来,太湖流域年总降水量、降水日数、年总降水强度的变化,分别受中雨量、小雨日数、暴雨量的影响较大。在旱年流域年降水量偏少受大雨量减少的影响较大,而涝年年降水量偏多受暴雨增加的影响较大。 相似文献
19.
塔里木河流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF （Empirical Orthogonal Function） to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim＇s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt. 相似文献
20.
By inversion analysis of the baseline changes and horizontal displacements observed with GPS (Global Positioning System) during 1990–1994, a high-angle reverse fault was detected in the Shikoku-Kinki region, southwest Japan. The active blind fault is characterized by reverse dip-slip (0.7±0.2 m yr−1 within a layer 17–26 km deep) with a length of 208±5 km, a (down-dip) width of 9±2 km, a dip-angle of 51°±2° and a strike direction of 40°±2° (NE). Evidence from the geological investigation of subfaults close to the southwestern portion of the fault, two historical earthquakes ( M L =7.0, 1789 and 6.4, 1955) near the centre of the fault, and an additional inversion analysis of the baseline changes recorded by the nationwide permanent GPS array from 18 January to 31 December 1995 partially demonstrates the existence of the fault, and suggests that it might be a reactivation of a pre-existing fault in this region. The fact that hardly any earthquakes ( M L >2.0) occurred at depth on the inferred fault plane suggests that the fault activity was largely aseismic. Based on the parameters of the blind fault estimated in this study, we evaluated stress changes in this region. It is found that shear stress concentrated and increased by up to 2.1 bar yr−1 at a depth of about 20 km around the epicentral area of the 1995 January 17 Kobe earthquake ( M L =7.2, Japan), and that the earthquake hypocentre received a Coulomb failure stress of about 5.6 bar yr−1 during 1990–1994. The results suggest that the 1995 Kobe earthquake could have been induced or triggered by aseismic fault movement. 相似文献