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1.
Koshi River basin, which lies in the Central Himalayas with an area of 71,500 km2, is an important trans-boundary river basin shared by China, Nepal and India. Yet, landslide-prone areas are all located in China and Nepal, imposing alarming risks of widespread damages to property and loss of human life in both countries. Against this backdrop, this research, by utilizing remote sensing images and topographic maps, has identified a total number of 6877 landslides for the past 23 years and further examined their distribution, characteristics and causes. Analysis shows that the two-step topography in the Himalayan region has a considerable effect on the distribution of landslides in this area. Dense distribution of landslides falls into two regions: the Lesser Himalaya(mostly small and medium size landslides in east-west direction) and the TransitionBelt(mostly large and medium size landslides along the river in north-south direction). Landslides decrease against the elevation while the southern slopes of the Himalayas have more landslides than its northern side. Change analysis was carried out by comparing landslide distribution data of 1992, 2010 and 2015 in the Koshi River basin. The rainfallinduced landslides, usually small and shallow and occurring more frequently in regions with an elevation lower than 1000 m, are common in the south and south-east slopes due to heavy precipitation in the region, and are more prone to the slope gradient of 20°~30°. Most of them are distributed in Proterozoic stratum(Pt3ε, Pt3 and Pt2-3) and Quaternary stratum. While for earthquake-induced landslides, they are more prone to higher elevations(2000~3000 m) and steeper slopes(40°~50°). 相似文献
2.
The primary objective of landslide susceptibility mapping is the prediction of potential landslides in landslide-prone areas.The predictive power of a landslide susceptibility mapping model could be tested in an adjacent area of similar geoenvironmental conditions to find out the reliability.Both the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the 2013 Lushan Earthquake occurred in the Longmen Mountain seismic zone,with similar topographical and geological conditions.The two earthquakes are both featured by thrust fault and similar seismic mechanism.This paper adopted the susceptibility mapping model of co-seismic landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake to predict the spatial distribution of landslides induced by Lushan earthquake.Six influencing parameters were taken into consideration: distance from the seismic fault,slope gradient,lithology,distance from drainage,elevation and Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA).The preliminary results suggested that the zones with high susceptibility of coseismic landslides were mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of Lushan,Baoxing and Tianquan counties.The co-seismic landslide susceptibility map was completed in two days after the quake and sent to the field investigators to provide guidance for rescue and relief work.The predictive power of the susceptibility map was validated by ROC curve analysis method using 2037 co-seismic landslides in the epicenter area.The AUC value of 0.710 indicated that the susceptibility model derived from Wenchuan Earthquake landslides showed good accuracy in predicting the landslides triggered by Lushan earthquake. 相似文献
3.
以湖南省澧源镇为例,利用证据权模型和灰色关联度模型分别计算了坡度、地层岩性、斜坡形态、土地利用类型、人类工程活动5个因子二级状态证据权值和一级因子权重;综合2种模型确定全区滑坡易发性指数后,完成基于斜坡单元的全区滑坡易发性区划;根据研究区岩土体类型（碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩类和松散岩土体类）分组研究不同滑坡发生概率下的有效降雨阈值曲线（I-D曲线）。研究降雨时间为3日、有效强度为22.4 mm/d的降雨工况下各岩土体类型滑坡发生的时间概率。综合时间概率和易发性结果得到澧源镇基于有效降雨阈值的滑坡灾害危险性区划图。研究结果表明:澧源镇滑坡灾害高和极高易发区占研究区总面积的25%,主要沿澧河分布;极高危险区和高危险区占研究区总面积的14%,主要分布在澧河北侧。 相似文献
4.
三峡库区大型-特大型滑坡发育，尤以层状岩质滑坡的危害性大。因库区各段地质条件差异使得滑坡成因模式各不相同，这影响了滑坡的运动形式和岩土体解体程度。在收集三峡库区51处典型的大型-特大型层状岩质滑坡调查资料基础上，根据堆积岩体结构和区段地质条件反推该段滑坡破坏成因模式，而不同成因模式下的滑坡坡体渗透性不同，分析已有滑坡对库水位变动存在的复活响应差异，据此得出以下结论:①在成因模式上，除顺层滑移型滑坡在库区中均有分布外，从库首至库尾随着岩层倾角的逐渐减缓，滑坡成因模式从崩塌型、反倾弯曲型逐渐过渡到平推式；②在坡体渗透性上，成因模式造成的岩体结构变化与坡体中的泥质含量共同作用，导致顺层滑移型滑坡前后缘渗透性存在较大差异；反倾型滑坡渗透性则整体变化较小；③在库水位变动影响下，不同坡体渗透性与滑面形态共同决定了滑坡的复活变形差异。 相似文献
5.
Massive geological landslides and unstable landslide areas were triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. These landslides caused deaths, damaged infrastructure and threatened endanger species. This study analyzed the impact of landslides on giant pandas and their habitats from the following aspects: threatening pandas‘ lives, damaging pandas‘ habitat, influencing giant panda behavior, increasing habitat fragmentation; the final aspect, and blocking gene flow by cutting off corridors. A habitat suitability map was created by integrating the landslide factors with other traditional factors based on a logistics regression method. According to the landslide inventory map, there are 1313 landslides, 818 rock debris flows, 117 rock avalanches and 43 mud flows occurred in the study area. A correlation analysis indicated that landslides caused the pandas to migrate, and the core landslides within 1 km2 had greater influence on panda migration. These core landslides primarily occurred in mid-altitude regionscharacterized by high slopes, old geological ages, large areas and large rock mass volumes. The habitat suitability assessment results for the Wolong Natural Reserve had better prediction performance(80.9%) and demonstrated that 14.5%, 15.9%, 20.5%, 47.6% and 1.5% of the study area can be classified as very high, high, moderate, low and very low giant panda suitability areas, respectively. This study can be used to inform panda and panda habitat research, management and protection during post-quake reconstruction and recovery periods in China. 相似文献
6.
区域滑坡易发性评价对滑坡灾害防治具有重要意义，贵州省思南县由于其特殊的自然地理和地质条件，受滑坡地质灾害的影响非常严重，因此，非常有必要对思南县的滑坡易发性进行评价。在滑坡编录的基础上，采用由RS、GIS和GPS组成的3S技术，获取了思南县的数字高程模型、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、坡长、岩土类型、地表湿度指数、距离水系的距离、植被覆盖度和地表建筑物指数10个滑坡影响因子；再在频率比和相关性分析的基础上，利用逻辑回归模型对思南县的滑坡易发性进行了评价并绘制了易发性分布图。结果表明:利用逻辑回归模型预测思南县滑坡易发性的准确率(AUC值)达到0.797，较为准确地预测出了思南县滑坡分布规律；极高和高滑坡易发区主要分布在高程低于600 m、地表坡度较大且以软质岩类为主的区域；而极低和低滑坡易发区主要分布在高程较高、地表坡度较小且以硬质岩类为主的区域。 相似文献
7.
Chien-Yuan CHEN 《山地科学学报》2012,9(4):463-471
Defining a basin under a critical state(or a self-organized criticality) that has the potential to initiate landslides,debris flows,and subsequent sediment disasters,is a key issue for disaster prevention.The Lushan Hot Spring area in Nantou County,Taiwan,suffered serious sediment disasters after typhoons Sinlaku and Jangmi in 2008,and following Typhoon Morakot in 2009.The basin’s internal slope instability after the typhoons brought rain was examined using the landslide frequency-area distribution.The critical state indices attributed to landslide frequency-area distribution are discussed and the marginally unstable characteristics of the study area indicated.The landslides were interpreted from Spot 5 images before and after disastrous events.The results of the analysis show that the power-law landslide frequency-area curves in the basin for different rainfall-induced events tend to coincide with a single line.The temporal trend of the rainfallinduced landslide frequency-area distribution shows 1/f noise and scale invariance.A trend exists for landslide frequency-area distribution in log-log space for larger landslides controlled by the historical maximum accumulated rainfall brought by typhoons.The unstable state of the basin,including landslides,breached dams,and debris flows,are parts of the basin’s self-organizing processes.The critical state of landslide frequency-area distribution could be estimated by a critical exponent of 1.0.The distribution could be used for future estimation of the potential landslide magnitude for disaster mitigation and to identify the current state of a basin for management. 相似文献
8.
《山地科学学报》2015,(1)
The "4.20" Lushan earthquake in Sichuan province, China has induced a large amount of geological hazards and produced abundant loose materials which are prone to post-earthquake rainfalltriggered landslides. A detailed landslide inventory was acquired through post-earthquake emergent field investigation and high resolution remote sensing interpretation. The rainfall analysis was conducted using historical rainfall records during the period from 1951 to 2010. Results indicate that the average annual rainfall distribution is heterogeneous and the largest average annual rainfall occurs in Yucheng district. The Stability Index MAPping(SINMAP)model was adopted to assess and analyze the postearthquake slope stability under different rainfall scenarios(light rainfall, moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, and rainstorm). The model parameters were calibrated to reflect the significant influence of strong earthquakes on geological settings. The slope stability maps triggered by different rainfall scenarios wereproduced at a regional scale. The effect of different rainfall conditions on the slope stability is discussed.The expanding trend of the unstable area was quantitatively assessed with the different critical rainfall intensity. They provide a new insight into the spatial distribution and characteristics of postearthquake rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lushan seismic area. An increase of rainfall intensity results in a significant increase of unstable area. The heterogeneous distribution of slope instability is strongly correlated with the distribution of earthquake intensity in spite of different rainfall conditions. The results suggest that the both seismic intensity and rainfall are two crucial factors for postearthquake slope stability. This study provides important references for landslide prevention and mitigation in the Lushan area after earthquake. 相似文献
9.
Earthquake-induced potential landslides are commonly estimated using landslide susceptibility maps. Nevertheless, the fault location is not identified and the ground motion caused by it is unavailable in the map. Thus, potential coseismic landslides for a specific fault motion-induced earthquake could not be predicted using the map. It is meaningful to incorporate the fault location and ground motion characteristics into the landslide predication model. A new method for a specific fault motion-induced coseismic landslide prediction model using GIS (Geographic Information System) is proposed herein. Location of mountain ridges, slope gradients over 45 o , PVGA (Peak Vertical Ground Accelerations) exceeded 0.15 g, and PHGA (Peak Horizontal Ground Accelerations) exceeded 0.25 g of slope units were representing locations that initiated landslides during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. These coseismic landslide characteristics were used to identify areas where landslides occurred during Meishan fault motion-induced strong ground motions in Chiayi County in Taiwan. The strong ground motion (over 8 Gal in the database, 1 Gal = 0.01 m/s 2 , and 1 g = 981 Gal) characteristics were evaluated by the fault length, site distance to the fault, and topography, and their attenuation relations are presented in GIS. The results of the analysis show that coseismic landslide areas could be identified promptly using GIS. The earthquake intensity and focus depth have visible effects on ground motion. The shallower the focus depth, the larger the magnitude increase of the landslides. The GIS-based landslide predication method is valuable combining the geomorphic characteristics and ground motion attenuation relationships for a potential region landslide hazard assessment and in disaster mitigation planning. 相似文献
10.
This study aims at exploring the void space gas effect of earthquake-triggered slope instability and providing a new method for studying the formation mechanism of earthquake-triggered landslides. We analysed the basic characteristics, kinematic characteristics, initiation mechanisms and physical mechanical parameters of the Daguangbao landslide, generalized a landslide prototype, and established a geological model and performed simulation tests. Based on the seismic wave propagation theory of rock-soil mass, rock fracture mechanics and the effective stress principle, we found that the void space gas effect is due to the occurrence of excess void space gas pressure when the dynamic response of seismic loads impacts the void space gas in weak intercalated layers of the slope. The excess void space gas pressure generated by the vibration(earthquake) damages the rock mass around the void space with a certain regularity. The model test results show that the effective shear strength of the rock mass can be reduced by 4.4% to 21.6% due to the void space gas effect. 相似文献
11.
GIS-based earthquake-triggered landslide hazard zoning using contributing weight model 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Earthquake-triggered landslides have aroused widespread attention because of their tremendous ability to harm people's lives and properties.The best way to avoid and mitigate their damage is to develop landslide hazard maps and make them available to the public in advance of an earthquake.Future construction can then be built according to the level of hazard and existing structures can be retrofit as necessary.During recent years various approaches have been made to develop landslide hazard maps using statistical analysis or physical models.However,these methods have limitations.This study introduces a new GIS-based approach,using the contributing weight model,to evaluate the hazard of seismically-induced landslides.In this study,the city and surrounding area of Dujiangyan was selected as the research area because of its moderate-high seismic activity.The parameters incorporated into the model that related to the probability of landslide occurrence were:slope gradient,slope aspect,geomorphology,lithology,base level,surface roughness,earthquake intensity,fault proximity,drainage proximity,and road proximity.The parameters were converted into raster data format with a resolution of 25×25m2 pixels.Analysis of the GIS correlations shows that the highest earthquake-induced landslide hazard areas are mainly in the hills and in some of the moderately steep mountainous areas of central Dujiangyan.The highest hazard zone covers an area of 11.1% of the study area,and the density distribution of seismically-induced landslides was 3.025/km2 from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The moderately hazardous areas are mainly distributed within the moderately steep mountainous regions of the northern and southeastern parts of the study area and the hills of the northeastern part;covering 32.0% of the study area and with a density distribution of 2.123/km2 resulting from the Wenchuan earthquake.The lowest hazard areas are mainly distributed in the topographically flat plain in the northeastern part and some of the relatively gently slopes in the moderately steep mountainous areas of the northern part of Dujiangyan and the surrounding area.The lowest hazard areas cover 56.9% of the study area and exhibited landslide densities of 0.941/km2 and less from the Wenchuan earthquake.The quality of the hazard map was validated using a comparison with the distribution of landslides that were cataloged as occurring from the Wenchuan earthquake.43.1% of the study area consists of high and moderate hazardous zones,and these regions include 83.5% of landslides caused by the Wenchuan earthquake.The successful analysis shows that the contributing weight model can be effective for earthquake-triggered landslide hazard appraisal.The model's results can provide the basis for risk management and regional planning is. 相似文献
12.
Long-term activity of earthquake-induced landslides: A case study from Qionghai Lake Basin,Southwest of China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Xue-li Wei Ning-sheng Chen Qian-gong Cheng Na He Ming-feng Deng Javed Iqbal Tanoli 《山地科学学报》2014,11(3):607-624
Earthquake-triggered landslides are a major geological hazard in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and have prolonged impact on earth surface processes and fluvial system. To determine how long co-seismic landslides affect basins, a massive number of landslides existing in Qionghai Lake Basin were investigated for landslide distribution characteristics and geomorphological evidences, with further comparison and analysis using historic seismic analog method. The landslides found in Qionghai Lake Basin showed clear features of seismic triggering with strongly controlled by Zemuhe fault. These landslides are still active at present. Some new slides generally occur in ancient slope failure zones causing serious secondary hazards in recent years. In this study we strengthen the idea that the landslides triggered by the 185o Xichang earthquake （Ms7.5） have long term activity and prolonged impact on the mountain disasters with a period of more than 16o years. Our results support growing evidence that coseismic landslides have a prolonged effect on secondary disasters in a basin, and invite more careful consideration of the relationship between current basin condition and landslide history for a longer period. 相似文献
13.
The use of LIDAR-derived shaded relief maps led to the identification of all potential landslide areas in a hilly region in Northern Bavaria (1590 km2), Germany. Every possible structure was investigated by field investigation which resulted in a detailed database of 1002 landslides within the study area. The analysis of geological, lithological, topographical and morphological properties (spatial ratio, lithological and geological setting, length/width distribution, material properties and slope angle) revealed characteristic appearances of the landslides and possible relationships between different aspects. Strong relations between the lithological setting, spatial ratio of the mapped landslides and distribution of slope angle could be observed. This study shows the value of high-resolution shaded relief maps for detecting and mapping landslides in a large area with comparatively little work and time in comparison to the traditional approach to mapping. It reveals that many landslides were not known before. Landslides are much more common in Northern Bavaria and have a higher influence on the denudation rate of the Franconian Alb than expected before. 相似文献
14.
Alternation of high and low resistance sedimentary beds,active tectonics,large rivers,and slope erosion in valleys consequently resulted in landslide in dammed lakes within the Zagros range.This study presents the results in the analysis of geological and topographic data,satellite imageries,morphotectonics and hydrodynamics of drainage networks about the landslide dammed lakes.There are four landslides in central Zagros(Zagros FoldThrust Belt,ZFTB)which have formed five dammed lakes named,Seymareh,Jaidar,Shur,Shimbar,and Godar.According to the results,damming landslides occurred in the active-tectonic regions on the slopes of anticlines and in valleys with undercutting effects of rivers on their slopes consisting of alternations of loose and resistant beds.The studied landslide dams in narrow valleys are formed as a result of blocking river by sliding debris slopes and rock slides.This study also indicates the formation of Jaidar and Godar in one stage and the presence of Lake Terrace sequence in Seymareh,Shur and Shimbar lakes.The observed sequences of terrace formation in these lakes are caused by four Seymareh Landslides followed by the three-stage excavation of Shur andShimbar lakes. 相似文献
15.
为了阐明地震滑坡的运动特性并对其进行致灾距的预测,基于遥感影像解译和野外调查数据,借助经验公式法,分析了汶川地震滑坡水平最大运移距离L与前后缘高差H之间的相关性,给出了经验公式;探讨了不同滑坡之间滑程的差异与异常。结果表明:若已知H,可用L=aH+b或L=aHb对总位移进行预测初探;将视摩擦系数H/L=0.45作为汶川地震高速远程型滑坡的上限较合适;滑坡体积、源区破裂面积与L呈正相关,与H/L呈负相关;地震滑坡易发生在山脊线平行于断裂带、垂直于地震波传播方向的山体两侧;崩塌型滑坡易发前后缘高差范围在10~100m之间,大型高速远程型滑坡易发前后缘高差大于200m;滑坡源区易发坡度分布在25°51°之间,滑床坡降变化范围为0~58°,高速远程型滑坡的滑床坡降主要在8°20°之间;分析认为滑程差异和异常是距离效应、能量传递与岩体挡板效应、滚动润滑与气垫效应、体积与破裂面积效应、地质因子、地形因子、颗粒级配与颗粒流效应等因素综合作用的结果,考虑上述因素有益于滑坡-碎屑流致灾距的预测分析。 相似文献
16.
《山地科学学报》2015,(5)
The goal of this study is to determine the geometrical and geotechnical characteristics of landslides under various geological conditions using detailed field surveys, laboratory soil tests and precipitation records. Three study areas are selected to consider different rocks, including gneiss in Jangheung, granite in Sangju and sedimentary rocks in Pohang, South Korea. Many landslides have occurred in these three areas during the rainy season.Precipitation records indicate that landslides occurring in the gneiss area of Jangheung and granite area of Sangju may be influenced by the hourly rainfall intensity rather than cumulative rainfall.However, landslides occurring in the sedimentary rock area of Pohang may be influenced by hourly rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall. To investigate the factors that influence these types of landslides, a detailed landslide survey was performed and a series of laboratory soil tests were conducted.According to the detailed field survey, most landslides occurred on the flanks of mountain slopes, and the slope inclination where they occurred mostly ranged from 26 to 30 degrees, regardless of the geological conditions. The landslide in the gneiss area of Jangheung is larger than the landslides in the granite area of Sangju and sedimentary rock area of Pohang.Particularly, the landslide in the sedimentary rock area is shorter and shallower than the landslides in the gneiss and granite areas. Thus, the shape and size of the landslide are clearly related to the geological conditions. According to the integrated soil property and landslide occurrence analyses results, the average dry unit weight of the soils from the landslide sites is smaller than that of the soils obtained from the nonlandslide site. The average coefficient of permeability of soils obtained from the landslide sites is greater than that of soils obtained from the non-landslide sites with the same geology. These results indicate that the soils from the landslide sites are more poorly graded or looser than the soils from the non-landslide sites. 相似文献
17.
滑坡是水库库区主要地质灾害类型之一,开展水库滑坡成因机制研究具有重要理论意义和工程应用价值.利用WebofScience(WoS)数据库和VOSviewer文献计量工具对1999-2018年已发表的969篇以水库滑坡为主题的相关论文进行研究趋势分析.文献计量分析表明三峡库区滑坡稳定性和变形研究是未来水库滑坡成因机制研究主要趋势.从库水对滑坡的宏观力学作用方式、库水作用下岩土体渗流应力耦合机理和库水对岩土体劣化作用过程等方面,对国内外水库滑坡成因机制研究的主要成果与进展进行了综述.综合现有的研究成果指出水库滑坡在精细化地质建模、岩土体多场耦合特征参数获取和岸坡长期演化评价等方面尚存在不足.基于上述问题,提出水库滑坡成因机制研究应以多场信息监测为重要手段,立足多学科交叉,采用大数据融合与挖掘和人工智能技术等解决水库滑坡长期演化趋势难题.考虑水库滑坡所处地质环境的复杂性,建议未来应在水库滑坡立体精细地质建模、多场关联监测、地质结构多场多尺度演变过程、基于监测数据大数据分析的滑坡预警阈值确定和原位试验综合平台构建等方面进一步深入研究. 相似文献
18.
Co-seismic landslide inventory and susceptibility mapping in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster area, China 总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1
The Ms 8.0 May 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered tens of thousands of landslides.The widespread landslides have caused serious casualties and property losses,and posed a great threat to post-earthquake reconstruction.A spatial database,inventoried 43,842 landslides with a total area of 632 km 2,was developed by interpretation of multi-resolution remote sensing images.The landslides can be classified into three categories:swallow,disrupted slides and falls;deep-seated slides and falls,and rock avalanches.The correlation between landslides distribution and the influencing parameters including distance from co-seismic fault,lithology,slope gradient,elevation,peak ground acceleration(PGA) and distance from drainage were analyzed.The distance from co-seismic fault was the most significant parameter followed by slope gradient and PGA was the least significant one.A logistic regression model combined with bivariate statistical analysis(BSA) was adopted for landslide susceptibility mapping.The study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility:very low,low,medium,high and very high.92.0% of the study area belongs to low and very low categories with corresponding 9.0% of the total inventoried landslides.Medium susceptible zones make up 4.2% of the area with 17.7% of the total landslides.The rest of the area was classified into high and very high categories,which makes up 3.9% of the area with corresponding 73.3% of the total landslides.Although the susceptibility map can reveal the likelihood of future landslides and debris flows,and it is helpful for the rebuilding process and future zoning issues. 相似文献
19.
《山地科学学报》2021,(8)
Tibetan Plateau is known as the roof of the world. Due to the continuous uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, many active fault zones are present. These active fault zones such as the Anninghe fault zone have a significant influence on the formation of special geomorphology and the distribution of geological hazards at the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The Anninghe fault zone is a key part of the Y-shaped fault pattern in the Sichuan-Yunnan block of China. In this paper, high-resolution topographic data, multitemporal remote sensing images, numerical calculations, seismic records, and comprehensive field investigations were employed to study the landslide distribution along the active part of the Anninghe. The influence of active faults on the lithology, rock mass structures and slope stress fields were also studied. The results show that the faults within the Anninghe fault zone have damaged the structure and integrity of the slope rock mass, reduced the mechanical strength of the rock mass and controlled the slope failure modes. The faults have also controlled the stress field, the distribution of the plastic strain zone and the maximum shear strain zone of the slope, thus have promoted the formation and evolution of landslides. We find that the studied landslides are linearly distributed along the Anninghe fault zone, and more than 80% of these landslides are within 2-3 km of the fault rupture zone. Moreover, the Anninghe fault zone provides abundant substance for landslides or debris flows. This paper presents four types of sliding mode control of the Anninghe fault zone, e.g., constituting the whole landslide body, controlling the lateral boundary of the landslide, controlling the crown of the landslide, and constituting the toe of the landslide. The results presented merit close attention as a valuable reference source for local infrastructure planning and engineering projects. 相似文献
20.
Yong-shuang Zhang Zhi-hua Yang Chang-bao Guo Tao Wang Dong-hui Wang Guo-liang Du 《山地科学学报》2017,14(7):1262-1278
Earthquake-induced landslides can seriously aggravate the earthquake’s destructive consequences and have caused widespread concern in recent decades. The Xianshuihe fault is a large active left-lateral strike-slip fault in the southeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China, where the frequent strong earthquakes have brought abundant geo-hazards. This study focuses mainly on exploring and predicting the landslide scenes induced by the potential earthquakes. Firstly, the sophisticated Newmark model is improved through landslide cases induced by the Ms7.9 Luhuo earthquake in 1973 to adapt the field seismotectonics of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Then, it is used to predict the landslide scenes under one speculated potential earthquake scenario with the similar focal mechanism with the Luhuo earthquake. The preliminary results show that the slope displacement resulted from Newmark model can reflect spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake-induced landslides. The predicted potential earthquake-induced landslide scenes present an obvious extending trend along the Xianshuihe fault. The landslide hazard is greater in the northeast regions than southwest regions of the Xianshuihe fault, where there are more complex topographic conditions. The study procedure will be a helpful demonstration for exploration and prediction of landslide scenes under potential earthquakes in the regions with high seismic activity. 相似文献