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1.
We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15–40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates. 相似文献
2.
We propose a simple gust definition based on the theory of excursions by Rice (1944 and 1945). We discuss the relation to the distribution of extreme events and demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that the most probable extreme event is very close to being identical to the gust according to our definition. We demonstrate how it is possible to predict the gust on the basis of the measured mean wind and variance rather than rely on actually measured extreme excursions. Our gust definition also allows us to predict the average duration of a gust.Supported by the Catalonian Research Council (CIRIT), Spain. 相似文献
3.
We present a unique and transparent approach for incorporating social influence effects into global integrated assessment models used to analyse climate change mitigation. We draw conceptually on Rogers (2003) diffusion of innovations, introducing heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real world processes. 相似文献
4.
The relationship between R&D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in carbon capture and storage. We find a significant amount of disagreement between experts, even over the most mature technology; and this disagreement is most pronounced in regards to cost estimates. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of R&D investments on the costs of emissions abatement. We conclude that we need to gather more information about the technical and societal potential for Carbon Storage; cost differences among the different capture technologies play a relatively smaller role. 相似文献
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6.
V. Renaud J. L. Innes M. Dobbertin M. Rebetez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,105(1-2):119-127
We compared below-canopy and open-site climatic conditions for 14 different forest sites in Switzerland and analysed the forest influence on local summer and winter climate according to the forest type (coniferous, mixed, deciduous), soil type, slope orientation, basal area and tree height. We compared below-canopy and open-field data for minimum, maximum and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, maximum and daily mean photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and wind speed from 1998 to 2007. We found clear differences between below-canopy and open-field temperatures, humidity, wind speed and PAR and could relate them to the specific site conditions and forest type. The forest influence on PAR and maximum temperature is clearly determined by the forest type, whereas the influence on minimum temperature is affected by both forest type and slope orientation and impact on humidity depends on the soil type. The wind speed is most impacted by topography and slope orientation. 相似文献
7.
We explore the controversy over nuclear power by looking at the plurality of narratives that have emerged throughout its history. We find a lack of consistency between the visions of nuclear power put forward by governments and industry and the experience associated with economic viability, nuclear accidents, waste handling, and so on. We use the conceptual tool of holon from complexity theory to provide a link between the models used for the governance of nuclear power and the realization of those models. The analysis of the holon over time reveals a systemic inconsistency between the way in which the story about nuclear energy is told and the experience gained after implementing nuclear energy according to the story. This inconsistency is due to the incompatible levels of observation used by different social actors endorsing different perspectives. The implementation of nuclear power has been based on the engineering view, focusing on the functioning of the nuclear power plant considered in abstraction from the wider implications of the adoption of this technology on the environment, on the economy, and on society. We cross-check this narrative with the societal metabolism view in order to provide a long term perspective of the interdependencies between nuclear power and the complex socio-economic system in which it is embedded. We conclude that the controversy over nuclear power may be treated as a problem of contrasting beliefs and normative values in clear disjunction from experience. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that more attention should be given to the quality of the narratives used in policy making. 相似文献
8.
Although anuran amphibians are diverse and conspicuous in many vertebrate communities, worldwide population declines have been observed. Climatic change is a global factor that has been implicated in some of these declines. In this paper, we speculate on how Neotropical anurans might respond to changes in climate predicted by Hulme and Viner (1998). We focus on two distinct groups of Neotropical anurans: frogs that live and oviposit in leaf litter and frogs that congregate at ponds to breed. Increased temperature, increased length of dry season, decreased soil moisture, and increased inter-annual rainfall variability will affect Neotropical frogs strongly. We expect that these changes will directly affect frogs by changing reproductive success and breeding periodicity, and indirectly by altering the invertebrate prey base. The individual effects will likely translate into changes at the population and community levels. We also speculate on how climatic change will affect Neotropical amphibians that are restricted ecologically and/or geographically. We suggest directions for future research that will increase our ability to predict how amphibians in the New World tropics will respond to climatic change. 相似文献
9.
Cool dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We examine whether conservative white males are more likely than are other adults in the U.S. general public to endorse climate change denial. We draw theoretical and analytical guidance from the identity-protective cognition thesis explaining the white male effect and from recent political psychology scholarship documenting the heightened system-justification tendencies of political conservatives. We utilize public opinion data from ten Gallup surveys from 2001 to 2010, focusing specifically on five indicators of climate change denial. We find that conservative white males are significantly more likely than are other Americans to endorse denialist views on all five items, and that these differences are even greater for those conservative white males who self-report understanding global warming very well. Furthermore, the results of our multivariate logistic regression models reveal that the conservative white male effect remains significant when controlling for the direct effects of political ideology, race, and gender as well as the effects of nine control variables. We thus conclude that the unique views of conservative white males contribute significantly to the high level of climate change denial in the United States. 相似文献
10.
National ‘green growth’ strategies, which aim at decoupling economic development from adverse environmental impacts, have become a new paradigm for policymakers in developing countries. Many green growth strategies are based on policy instruments designed to incentivize the domestic deployment of relatively mature clean technologies and aim at fostering the formation of a local industry to develop and produce these technologies. While the empirical evidence on the localization effect of such policies in developing countries is mixed, there is a dearth of research systemically analyzing how differences between technologies affect patterns of localization, which could explain the observed variance. We address this gap and develop a typology which distinguishes four types of technologies requiring different types of capabilities. We do so by combining insights from the literature on technology transfer and catching-up of industries with insights from the literature on patterns of innovation across the technology life- cycle. We apply this typology to the case of low-emission development strategies and four exemplary low-carbon technologies, namely small and micro hydro power, wind turbines, electric cars, and solar cells, in order to analyze capability requirements, innovation patterns, and the effect of past deployment policies on industry localization. We synthesize these case studies and derive a heuristic to anticipate the localization effects of deployment policies for different types of technologies in countries with varying income levels. We argue that the heuristic can serve as starting point for policymakers aiming at clean technology industry localization. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible technology-specific green growth strategies for developing countries with different income levels and for international institutions supporting green growth. 相似文献
11.
This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China’s power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries’ power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to China’s present-day economy and power sector. We then developed different scenarios based on story lines for possible future developments in China. We simulated China’s carbon-based electricity production system of today and possible future transitions towards a low-carbon system relying on renewable and low-carbon energies. In our analysis, we compare the business-as-usual scenarios with more sustainable energy scenarios. We found that by increasing the share of renewable and nuclear energies to different levels, between 17% and 57% of all CO2 emissions from the power sector could be avoided by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario. We also found that electricity generation costs increase when more sustainable power plants are installed. As a conclusion, China has two options: choosing for high climate change mitigation and high costs or choosing for moderate climate change mitigation and moderate costs. In case high climate change mitigation will be chosen, development assistance is likely to be needed to cover the costs. 相似文献
12.
We present a brief summary of some results describing interannual to decade scale variability of ocean parameters, focusing on subsurface temperature and salinity. We focus attention on the North Atlantic, where it is very clear that a major redistribution of heat and salt has been occurring since 1960, from the sea surface to at least 3000 m depth. We then discuss implications of these examples of historical variability toward development of an ocean monitoring system for the ocean interior. The purpose of this paper reflects our belief that the justification of, and planning for, any such monitoring system for the world ocean, should be based on analyses of historical oceanographic data. These analyses should document the time and space scales associated with variability of the world ocean. 相似文献
13.
Anticipation methods and tools are increasingly used to try to imagine and govern transformations towards more sustainable futures across different policy domains and sectors. But there is a lack of research into the steering effects of anticipation on present-day governance choices, especially in the face of urgently needed sustainability transformations. This paper seeks to understand how different perspectives on anticipatory governance connect to attempts to guide policy and action toward transformative change. We analyze perspectives on anticipatory governance in a global network of food system foresight practitioners (Foresight4Food) – using a workshop, interviews, and a survey as our sources of data. We connect frameworks on anticipatory governance and on transformation to analyse different perspectives on the future and their implications for actions in the present to transform food systems and offer new insights for theory and practice. In the global Foresight4Food network, we find that most foresight practitioners use hybrid approaches to anticipatory governance that combine fundamentally different assumptions about the future. We also find that despite these diverse food futures, anticipation processes predominantly produce recommendations that follow more prediction-oriented forms of strategic planning in order to mitigate future risks. We further demonstrate that much anticipation for transformation uses the language on deep uncertainty and deliberative action without fully taking its consequences on board. Thus, opportunities for transforming future food systems are missed due to these implicit assumptions that dominate the anticipatory governance of food systems. Our combined framework helps researchers and practitioners to be more reflexive of how assumptions about key human systems such as food system futures shape what is prioritized/marginalized and included/excluded in actions to transform such systems. 相似文献
14.
Low-meat and no-meat diets are increasingly acknowledged as sustainable alternatives to current Western food consumption patterns. Concerns for the environment, individual health or animal welfare are raising consumers’ willingness to adopt such diets. Dietary shifts in Western countries may modify the way human-environment systems interact over distances, primarily as a result of existing trade flows in food products. Global studies have focused on the amount of water, land, and CO2 emissions embodied in plant-based versus animal-based proteins, but the potential of alternative diets to shift the location of environmental impacts has not yet been investigated. We build on footprint and trade-based analyses to compare the magnitude and spatial allocation of the impacts of six diets of consumers in the United States of America (USA). We used data on declared diets as well as a stylized average diet and a recent dietary guideline integrating health and environmental targets. We demonstrate that low-meat and no-meat diets have a lower demand for land and utilize more crops with natural nitrogen fixation potential, yet also rely more widely on pollinator abundance and diversity, and can increase impacts on freshwater ecosystems in some countries. We recommend that governments carefully consider the local impacts of the alternative diets they promote, and minimize trade-offs between the global and local consequences of dietary shifts through regulation or incentives. 相似文献
15.
We investigate uncertainties about conventional petroleum resources and substitutes for conventional petroleum, focusing on
the impact of these uncertainties on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We use examples from the IPCC Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios as a baseline for comparison. The studied uncertainties include, (1) uncertainty in emissions factors
for petroleum substitutes, (2) uncertainties resulting from poor knowledge of the amount of remaining conventional petroleum,
and (3) uncertainties about the amount of production of petroleum substitutes from natural gas and coal feedstocks. We find
that the potential effects of a transition to petroleum substitutes on GHG emissions are significant. A transition to low-quality
and synthetic petroleum resources such as tar sands or coal-to-liquids synfuels could raise upstream GHG emissions by several
gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) per year by mid-century unless mitigation steps are taken. 相似文献
16.
Keynyn Brysse Naomi Oreskes Jessica O’Reilly Michael Oppenheimer 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):327-337
Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “alarmism”: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency “erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).” We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD. 相似文献
17.
The carbon-dense peatlands of Indonesia are a landscape of global importance undergoing rapid land-use change. Here, peat drained for agricultural expansion increases the risk of large-scale uncontrolled fires. Several solutions to this complex environmental, humanitarian and economic crisis have been proposed, such as forest protection measures and agricultural support. However, numerous programmes have largely failed. Bundles of interventions are proposed as promising strategies in integrated approaches, but what policy interventions to combine and how to align such bundles to local conditions remains unclear. We evaluate the impact of two types of interventions and of their combinations, in reducing fire occurrence through driving behavioural change: incentives (i.e. rewards that are conditional on environmental performance), and deterrents (e.g. sanction, soliciting concerns for health). We look at the impact of these interventions in 10 villages with varying landscape and fire-risk contexts in Sumatra, Indonesia. A private-led implementation of a standardised programme allows us to study outcome variability through a natural experiment design. We conduct a systematic cross-case comparison to identify the most effective combinations of interventions, using two-step qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and geospatial and socio-economic survey data (n = 303). We analysed the combined influence of proximate conditions (interventions, e.g. fear of sanction) and remote ones (context; e.g. extent of peat soil) on fire outcomes. We show how, depending on the level of risk in the pre-existing context, certain bundles of interventions are needed to succeed. We found that, despite the programme being framed as rewards-based, people were not responding to the reward alone. Rather sanctions and soliciting concern appeared central to fire prevention, raising important equity implications. Our results contribute to the emerging global interest in peat fire mitigation, and the rapidly developing literature on PES performance. 相似文献
18.
《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(3):304-316
We argue that globalization is a central feature of coupled human–environment systems or, as we call them, socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this article, we focus on the effects of globalization on the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptability of these systems. We begin with a brief discussion of key terms, arguing that socio-economic resilience regularly substitutes for biophysical resilience in SESs with consequences that are often unforeseen. A discussion of several mega-trends (e.g. the rise of mega-cities, the demand for hydrocarbons, the revolution in information technologies) underpins our argument. We then proceed to identify key analytical dimensions of globalization, including rising connectedness, increased speed, spatial stretching, and declining diversity. We show how each of these phenomena can cut both ways in terms of impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of SESs. A particularly important insight flowing from this analysis centers on the reversal of the usual conditions in which large-scale things are slow and durable while small-scale things are fast and ephemeral. The fact that SESs are reflexive can lead either to initiatives aimed at avoiding or mitigating the dangers of globalization or to positive feedback processes that intensify the impacts of globalization. In the concluding section, we argue for sustained empirical research regarding these concerns and make suggestions about ways to enhance the incentives for individual researchers to work on these matters. 相似文献
19.
George H. Goedecke D. Keith Wilson Vladimir E. Ostashev 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(1):1-23
Here, we contribute to the continuing development of the quasi-wavelet (QW) model of turbulence that is currently being used in simulations of sound propagation and scattering in the turbulent atmosphere. We show that a QW model of temperature fluctuations exists for any physically reasonable temperature spectrum of isotropic homogeneous turbulence, including the widely used von Kármán spectrum. We derive a simple formula for the QW shape that reproduces a given spectrum exactly in the energy, transition, and inertial subranges. We also show that simple QW shapes can be normalized to yield an analytic expression for a temperature spectrum that is fairly close to any given spectrum. As an example, we match the Gaussian QW model to the von Kármán spectrum as closely as possible, and find remarkably good agreement in all subranges including the dissipation subrange. We also derive formulae for the variance and kurtosis associated with the QW model, and show how the latter depends on the QW packing fraction and size distribution. We also illustrate how the visual appearance of several QW-simulated temperature fluctuation fields depends on the QW packing fraction, size distribution, and kurtosis. 相似文献