Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: hydrological response of flow to climate change     

S. Kure  S. Jang  N. Ohara  M. L. Kavvas  Z. Q. Chen 《水文研究》2013,27(26):4057-4070

The warming of the Earth's atmosphere system is likely to change temperature and precipitation, which may affect the climate, hydrology and water resources at the river basins over the world. The importance of temperature change becomes even greater in snow or glacier dominated basins where it controls the snowmelt processes during the late‐winter, spring and summer months. In this study hydrologic responses of streamflow in the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins to climate change are analysed with a watershed hydrology model, based on the downscaled atmospheric data as input, in order to assess the regional climate change impact for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan. As a result of this analysis, it was found that the annual mean river discharge is increasing in the future at snow and glacier dominated areas due to the air temperature increase and the consequent increase in snow/ice melt rates until about 2060. Then the annual mean flow discharge starts to decrease from about 2080 onward because the small glaciers start to disappear in the glacier areas. It was also found that there is a gradual change in the hydrologic flow regime throughout a year, with the high flows occuring earlier in the hydrologic year, due to the warmer climate in the future. Furthermore, significant increases in annual maximum daily flows, including the 100‐year return period flows, at the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins toward the end of the 21st century can be inferred from flood frequency analysis results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine     

Nadine Junghans  Johannes Cullmann  Matthias Huss 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):981-993

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.  相似文献   

Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change     

Pratap Singh  Lars Bengtsson 《水文研究》2004,18(13):2363-2385

The present study sets out to investigate the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for a large western Himalayan river (the Satluj River basin with an area of 22 275 km² and elevation range of 500 to 7000 m), which receives contributions from rain, snow and glacier melt runoff. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model to provide accurate simulations of observed stream flow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T + 1, T + 2, T + 3 °C) and four rainfall scenarios (P ? 10, P ? 5, P + 5 and P + 10%). The effect of climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total stream flow. Under warmer climate, a typical feature of the study basin was found to be reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season, and, in contrast, an increase in the melt from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from upper part of the basin, resulting in a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period, which contributes about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region, because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH PERIPHERIES OF MOUNTAIN–GLACIAL BASINS OF CENTRAL ASIA     

VLADIMIR AIZEN  ELENA AIZEN 《水文研究》1997,11(5):451-469

Four high mountain glacial basins of the northern and southern periphery of central Asia were studied to determine their interaction with the external hydrological cycle over the Eurasian continent. Two of them located in the northern periphery are closed drainage basins with continental climate and the other two are open basins located in the southern periphery. Calculations of mass energy exchange, glacial runoff and components of the hydrological cycles were conducted. For glaciers with a continental climate, the calculations of snow–ice melt and runoff were based on solar parameters. For glaciers with a marine climate regime, glacier melt and runoff were based on air temperature. The relative errors of simulated annual flows were, on average, 8–14%. The components of the regional hydrological cycles (precipitation, condensation, runoff and evaporation) were quantified for each glacial system and their share in total atmospheric moisture was determined. The closed basins of the northern periphery in central Asia stored annually about 0·1–2·4% of the total external atmospheric moisture in the Aralo-Caspian and Tarim hydrographic systems. About 0·22–0·24% of the external water cycle is transferred annually in open glacial basins of the southern periphery. The glaciers of these regions return 0·25–0·30% of the external water cycle per year to the Pacific and Indian oceans, 0·03% and 0·06% of this external moisture is taken from the glacial resources of the Gongga and Xixibangma glaciers. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas     

Xingxing Zhang  Rui Wang  Zhijun Yao  Zhaofei Liu 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1920-1933

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.  相似文献   

Meltwater storage and delaying characteristics of Gangotri Glacier (Indian Himalayas) during ablation season     

Pratap Singh  Amit Kumar  Naval Kishore 《水文研究》2011,25(2):159-166

Himalayan basins have considerable snow‐ and glacier‐covered areas, which are an important source of water, particularly during summer season. In the Himalayan region, in general, the glacier melt season is considered to be from May to October. Changes in hydrological characteristics of the runoff over the melt season can be understood by studying the variation in time to peak and time lag between melt generation and its emergence as runoff. In the present study, the runoff‐delaying characteristics of Gangotri Glacier, one of the largest glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, have been studied. For this purpose, hourly discharge and temperature data were collected near the snout of the glacier (4000 m) for three ablation seasons (2004–2006). The diurnal variations in discharge and temperature provided useful information on water storage and runoff characteristics of the glacier. In the early stages of the ablation period, poor drainage network and stronger storage characteristics of the glaciers due to the presence of seasonal snow cover resulted in a much delayed response of melt water, providing a higher time lag and time to peak as compared to the peak melt season. A comparison of runoff‐delaying parameters with the discharge ratio clearly indicated that changes in time lag and time to peak are inversely correlated with variations in discharge. Impact of such meltwater storage and delaying characteristics of glaciers on hydropower projects being planned/developed on glacier‐fed streams in India has been discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effect of climate change on runoff of a glacierized Himalayan basin     

Pratap Singh  Manohar Arora  N. K. Goel 《水文研究》2006,20(9):1979-1992

The continuous increase in the emission of greenhouse gases has resulted in global warming, and substantial changes in the global climate are expected by the end of the current century. The reductions in mass, volume, area and length of glaciers on the global scale are considered as clear signals of a warmer climate. The increased rate of melting under a warmer climate has resulted in the retreating of glaciers. On the long‐term scale, greater melting of glaciers during the coming years could lead to the depletion of available water resources and influence water flows in rivers. It is also very likely that such changes have occurred in Himalayan glaciers, but might have gone unnoticed or not studied in detail. The water resources of the Himalayan region may also be highly vulnerable to such climate changes, because more than 50% of the water resources of India are located in the various tributaries of the Ganges, Indus and the Brahmaputra river system, which are highly dependent on snow and glacier runoff. In the present study, the snowmelt model SNOWMOD has been used to simulate the melt runoff from a highly glacierized small basin for the summer season. The model simulated the distribution and volume of runoff with reasonably good accuracy. Based on a 2‐year simulation, it is found that, on average, the contributions of glacier melt and rainfall in the total runoff are 87% and 13% respectively. The impact of climate change on the monthly distribution of runoff and total summer runoff has been studied with respect to plausible scenarios of temperature and rainfall, both individually and in combined scenarios. The analysis included six temperature scenarios ranging between 0·5 and 3 °C, and four rainfall scenarios (?10%, ?5%, 5%, 10%). The combined scenarios were generated using temperature and rainfall scenarios. The combined scenarios represented a combination of warmer and drier and a combination of warmer and wetter conditions in the study area. The results indicate that, for the study basin, runoff increased linearly with increase in temperature and rainfall. For a temperature rise of 2 °C, the increase in summer streamflow is computed to be about 28%. Changes in rainfall by ±10% resulted in corresponding changes in streamflow by ±3·5%. For the range of climatic scenarios considered, the changes in runoff are more sensitive to changes in temperature, compared with rainfall, which is likely due to the major contribution of melt water in runoff. Such studies are needed for proper assessment of available water resources under a changing climate in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrating glaciers raster‐based modelling in large catchments hydrological balance: the Rhone case study          下载免费PDF全文

L. Boscarello  G. Ravazzani  D. Rabuffetti  M. Mancini 《水文研究》2014,28(3):496-508

A raster‐based glacier sub‐model was successfully introduced in the distributed hydrological model FEST‐WB to simulate the water balance and surface runoff of large Alpine catchments. The glacier model is based on temperature‐index approach for melt, on linear reservoir for melt water propagation into the ice and on mass balance for accumulation; the initialization of the volume of ice on the basin was based on a formulation depending on surface topography. The model was first tested on a sub‐basin of the Rhone basin (Switzerland), which is for 62% glaciated; the calibration and validation were based on comparison between simulated and observed discharge from 1999 to 2008. The model proved to be suitable to simulate the typical discharge seasonality of a heavily glaciated basin. The performance of the model was also tested by simulating discharge in the whole Swiss Rhone basin, in which glaciers contribution is not negligible, in fact, in summer, about the 40% of the discharge is due to glacier melt. The model allowed to take into account the volume of water coming from glaciers melt and its simple structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of climate change on hydrological regime of high mountain basins, with available meteorological forcing from current RCM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Snow cover variability and snowmelt in a high‐altitude ungauged catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Rui Wang  Zhijun Yao  Zhaofei Liu  Shanshan Wu  Liguang Jiang  Lei Wang 《水文研究》2015,29(17):3665-3676

Snow variability is an integrated indicator of climate change, and it has important impacts on runoff regimes and water availability in high‐altitude catchments. Remote sensing techniques can make it possible to quantitatively detect the snow cover changes and associated hydrological effects in those poorly gauged regions. In this study, the spatial–temporal variations of snow cover and snow melting time in the Tuotuo River basin, which is the headwater of the Yangtze River, were evaluated based on satellite information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover product, and the snow melting equivalent and its contribution to the total runoff and baseflow were estimated by using degree–day model. The results showed that the snow cover percentage and the tendency of snow cover variability increased with rising altitude. From 2000 to 2012, warmer and wetter climate change resulted in an increase of the snow cover area. Since the 1960s, the start time for snow melt has become earlier by 0.9–3 days/10a and the end time of snow melt has become later by 0.6–2.3 days/10a. Under the control of snow cover and snow melting time, the equivalent of snow melting runoff in the Tuotuo River basin has been fluctuating. The average contributions of snowmelt to baseflow and total runoff were 19.6% and 6.8%, respectively. Findings from this study will serve as a reference for future research in areas where observational data are deficient and for planning of future water management strategies for the source region of the Yangtze River. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological processes in a glacier‐dominated catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Xiaolei Wang  Yi Luo  Lin Sun  Yiqing Zhang 《水文研究》2015,29(23):4830-4845

The processes by which climate change affects streamflow in alpine river basins are not entirely understood. This study evaluated the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on runoff and streamflow using glacier‐enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The study used observed and detrended historical meteorological data for recent decades (1961–2005) to analyse individual and combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes on snow and glacier melts and discharges in the Sary‐Djaz‐Kumaric River Basin (SRB), Tianshan Mountains. The results showed a 1.3% increase in annual snowmelt in the basin, mainly because of an increase in precipitation. Snowmelt in the basin varied seasonally, increasing from April through May because of increasing precipitation and decreasing from July through September because of rising temperature. Glacier melt increased by 5.4%, 5.0% of which was due to rising temperature and only 0.4% due to increasing precipitation. Annual streamflow increased by 4.4%, of which temperature and precipitation increases accounted for 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively. The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on streamflow were especially significant after 1980 and even more so in September. Glacier melt, due to temperature rise, was the dominant driver of increasing streamflow in the glacier‐dominated SRB, Tianshan Mountains. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Snow-distribution and melt modelling for glaciers in Zackenberg river drainage basin,north-eastern Greenland     

Sebastian H. Mernild  Glen E. Liston  Bent Hasholt 《水文研究》2007,21(24):3249-3263

A physically based snow-evolution modelling system (SnowModel) that includes four sub-models: MicroMet, EnBal, SnowPack, and SnowTran-3D, was used to simulate eight full-year evolutions of snow accumulation, distribution, sublimation, and surface melt from glaciers in the Zackenberg river drainage basin, in north-east Greenland. Meteorological observations from two meteorological stations were used as model inputs, and spatial snow depth observations, snow melt depletion curves from photographic time lapse, and a satellite image were used for model testing of snow and melt simulations, which differ from previous SnowModel tests methods used on Greenland glaciers. Modelled test-period-average end-of-winter snow water equivalent (SWE) depth for the depletion area differs by a maximum of 14 mm w.eq., or ∼6%, more than the observed, and modelled test-period-average snow cover extent differs by a maximum of 5%, or 0·8 km², less than the observed. Furthermore, comparison with a satellite image indicated a 7% discrepancy between observed and modelled snow cover extent for the entire drainage basin. About 18% (31 mm w.eq.) of the solid precipitation was returned to the atmosphere by sublimation. Modelled mean annual snow melt and glacier ice melt for the glaciers in the Zackenberg river drainage basin from 1997 through 2005 (September–August) averaged 207 mm w.eq. year⁻¹ and 1198 mm w.eq. year⁻¹, respectively, yielding a total averaging 1405 mm w.eq. year⁻¹. Total modelled mean annual surface melt varied from 960 mm w.eq. year⁻¹ to 1989 mm w.eq. year⁻¹. The surface-melt period started between mid-May and the beginning of June and lasted until mid-September. Annual calculated runoff averaged 1487 mm w.eq. year⁻¹ (∼150 × 10⁶ m³) (1997–2005) with variations from 1031 mm w.eq. year⁻¹ to 2051 mm w.eq. year⁻¹. The model simulated a total glacier recession averaging − 1347 mm w.eq. year⁻¹ (∼136 × 10⁶ m³) (1997–2005), which was almost equal to previous basin average hydrological water balance storage studies − 244 mm w.eq. year⁻¹ (∼125 × 10⁶ m³) (1997–2003). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A modified monthly degree‐day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development     

Shiqiang Zhang  Baisheng Ye  Shiyin Liu  Xiaowen Zhang  Stefan Hagemann 《水文研究》2012,26(11):1686-1696

The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and is likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea‐level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi‐arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long‐term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree‐day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree‐day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area–volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub‐basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long‐term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Prediction of siderophile element metal-silicate partition coefficients to 20 GPa and 2800°C: the effects of pressure, temperature, oxygen fugacity, and silicate and metallic melt compositions     

K. Righter  M. J. Drake  G. Yaxley 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1997,100(1-4):115-134

We report new metal-silicate partition coefficients for Ni, Co and P at 7.0 GPa (1650–1750°C), and Ni, Co, Mo, W and P at 0.8, 1.0 and 1.5 GPa (1300–1400°C). Guided by thermodynamics, all available metal-silicate partition coefficients, D(i), where i is Ni, Co, P, Mo and W, are regressed against 1/T, P/T, lnf(O₂), ln(1 − X_s) (X_S is mole fraction of S in metallic liquid) and nbo/t (non-bridging oxygen/tetrahedral cation ratio, a silicate melt compositional-structural parameter) to derive equations of the following form: ln D(i) = aln f(O₂) + (b/T) + (cP/T) + d(nbo/t) + eln(1 − X_S) + f. Expressions for solid metal-liquid silicate and liquid metal-liquid silicate partition coefficients are derived for S-free and S-bearing systems.

We investigate whether Earth's upper-mantle siderophile element abundances can be reconciled with simple metal-silicate equilibrium. Sulfur-free metallic compositions do not allow a good fit. However, Ni, Co, Mo, W and P abundances in the upper mantle are consistent with simple metal-silicate equilibrium at mantle pressures and temperatures (27 GPa, 2200 K, ΔIW(iron-wüstite) = −0.15, nbo/t = 2.7; X_S = 0.15). Although these conditions are near the anhydrous peridotite solidus, they are well above the hydrous solidus and probably closer to the liquidus. A hydrous magma ocean and early mantle are consistent with predicted planetary accretion models. These results suggest that siderophile element abundances in Earth's upper mantle were established by liquid metal-liquid silicate equilibrium near the upper-mantle-lower-mantle boundary.  相似文献   

Assessment of glacier- and snowmelt-driven streamflow in the arid middle Tianshan Mountains of China     

Yan Liu  Jianhui Xu  Xinyu Lu  Lei Nie 《水文研究》2020,34(12):2750-2762

Due to limitations in transport and communication infrastructures and difficulties in accessing glaciers, it is challenging to monitor snow and glaciers. In this study, the enhanced Utah Energy Balance (UEB) with a glacier melt model and snow above and below the forest ablation algorithm is used to assess the contributions of snow and glacier melting in three typical inland river basins (MRB, URB and KRB) in the middle Tianshan Mountains of China from 2002 to 2014. Forced by the spatial downscaling of the China meteorological forcing dataset (CMFD) coupled with other parameters, the model simulates the total surface water balance using surface water input from snowmelt, glacial melt and rainfall. Model simulations reveal that although the MRB, URB and KRB are all located on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, there are obvious differences in their water resource composition characteristics. Different from the URB, which is mainly replenished by glacial melt and had an average annual percentage of glacial melt of approximately 39% of the total surface water from 2009 to 2014, the MRB and KRB are mainly supplied by snowmelt and rainfall and both had an average annual percentage of snowmelt of approximately 37%. Although snowmelt is an important source of water to inland rivers, especially during the snowmelt season, the contributions of snowmelt in these three basins are very small especially for the URB, which had a contribution of 17%. This study effectively verifies the applicability of the CMFD and provides important scientific and technological support for determining the spatiotemporal variations in snow and glacial melt in the middle Tianshan Mountains, where meteorological observation data are scarce and some observational data, such as radiation data, are incomplete.  相似文献   

龙门山构造带深部动力学过程与地表地质过程的耦合关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

颜照坤  王绪本  李勇  罗威  杨宜海  王兴建  邵崇建  闫亮 《地球物理学报》2017,60(7):2744-2755

发生在地球浅层的2008年汶川地震驱动了龙门山及前陆地区的地表同震垂向位移.根据冲断带-前陆盆地弹性挠曲模型理论,在进行弹性挠曲模拟反演的基础上,结合对深部地球物理特征(泊松比、电性结构)的分析,发现龙门山前陆盆地现今岩石圈有效弹性厚度(T_e)具有自东向西逐渐减薄的趋势,自川中地区的30~40 km减至龙门山地区的10~20 km.在对晚三叠世以来前陆盆地各阶段盆地结构进行刻画的基础上,进行弹性挠曲模拟反演,推断龙门山前陆盆地的前渊地区(四川盆地西部)岩石圈的T_e值自晚三叠世以来具有逐渐减薄的趋势.这可能与松潘一甘孜地块下方广泛存在的软流圈热物质对四川盆地西部岩石圈下部的长期加热而导致的熔融有关,反映了地球深部动力学过程与地球表层盆地演化之间的耦合关系.  相似文献   

Drought projection based on a hybrid drought index using Artificial Neural Networks          下载免费PDF全文

Tao Yang  Xudong Zhou  Zhongbo Yu  Valentina Krysanova  Bo Wang 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2635-2648

The Tarim River Basin is a special endorheic arid drainage basin in Central Asia, characterized by limited rainfall and high evaporation as common in deserts, while water is supplied mainly by glacier and snow melt from the surrounding mountains. The existing drought indices can hardly capture the drought features in this region as droughts are caused by two dominant factors (meteorological and hydrological conditions). To overcome the problem, a new hybrid drought index (HDI), integrating the meteorological and hydrological drought regimes, was developed and tested in the basin in the work. The index succeeded in revealing the drought characteristics and the ensemble influence better than the single standardized precipitation index or the hydrological index. The Artificial Neural Network approach based on temperature and precipitation observations was set up to simulate the HDI change. The method enabled constructing scenarios of future droughts in the region using climate simulation of the GCMs under four RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP5 project. The simulations in the study have shown that the water budget patterns in the Tarim River Basin are more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. Dominated by temperature rise causing an accelerating snow/glacier melt, the frequency of drought months is projected to decrease by about 14% in the next decades (until 2035). The drought duration is expected to be shortened to 3 months on average, with the severity alleviated. However, the region would still suffer more severe droughts with a high intensity in some years. The general decrease in drought frequency and intensity over the region in the future would be beneficial for water resources management and agriculture development in the oases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate variability,snow, and physiographic controls on storm hydrographs in small forested basins,western Cascades,Oregon     

Reed M. Perkins  Julia A. Jones 《水文研究》2008,22(25):4949-4964

Large floods are often attributed to the melting of snow during a rain event. This study tested how climate variability, snowpack presence, and basin physiography were related to storm hydrograph shape in three small (<1 km²) basins with old‐growth forest in western Oregon. Relationships between hydrograph characteristics and precipitation were tested for approximately 800 storms over a nearly 30‐year period. Analyses controlled for (1) snowpack presence/absence, (2) antecedent soil moisture, and (3) hillslope length and gradient. For small storms (<150 mm precipitation), controlling for precipitation, the presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil increased the threshold of precipitation before hydrograph rise, extended the start lag, centroid lag, and duration of storm hydrographs, and increased the peak discharge. The presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil sped up and steepened storm hydrographs in a basin with short steep slopes, but delayed storm hydrographs in basins with longer or more gentle slopes. Hydrographs of the largest events, which were extreme regional rain and rain‐on‐snow floods, were not sensitive to landform characteristics or snowpack presence/absence. Although the presence of a snowpack did not increase peak discharge in small, forested basins during large storms, it had contrasting effects on storm timing in small basins, potentially synchronizing small basin contributions to the larger basin hydrograph during large rain‐on‐snow events. By altering the relative timing of hydrographs, snowpack melting could produce extreme floods from precipitation events whose size is not extreme. Further work is needed to examine effects of canopy openings, snowpack, and climate warming on extreme rain‐on‐snow floods at the large basin scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate     

Pierre Chevallier  Bernard Pouyaud  Marie Mojaïsky  Mikhaïl Bolgov  Oliver Olsson  Melanie Bauer 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1491-1506

Abstract

The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime, which could be strongly modified by climate change. The present study, part of a project funded by the European Commission, analyses the hydrological situation in six benchmark basins covering areas of between 1800 and 8400 km², essentially located in Tajikistan, with a variety of topographical situations, precipitation amounts and glacierized areas. Four types of parameter are discussed: temperature, glaciation, snow cover and river flows. The study is based mainly on a long-time series that ended in the 1990s (with the collapse of the Soviet Union) and on field observations and data collection. In addition, a short, more recent period (May 2000 to May 2002) was examined to better understand the role of snow cover, using scarce monitored data and satellite information. The results confirm the overall homogeneous trend of temperature increase in the mountain range and its impacts on the surface water regime. Concerning the snow cover, significant differences are noted in the location, elevation, orientation and morphology of snow cover in the respective basins. The changes in the river flow regime are regulated by the combination of the snow cover dynamics and the increasing trend of the air temperature.