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Fractal dynamics of geomagnetic storms 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Naïma Zaourar Mohamed Hamoudi Matthias Holschneider Mioara Mandea 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(6):1693-1702
We explore fluctuations of the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field to identify scaling behaviour of the temporal variability in geomagnetic data recorded by the Intermagnet observatories during the solar cycle 23 (years 1996 to 2005). In this work, we use the remarkable ability of scaling wavelet exponents to highlight the singularities associated with discontinuities present in the magnetograms obtained at two magnetic observatories for six intense magnetic storms, including the sudden storm commencements of 14 July 2000, 29–31 October and 20–21 November 2003. In the active intervals that occurred during geomagnetic storms, we observe a rapid and unidirectional change in the spectral scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. The corresponding fractal features suggest that the dynamics of the whole time series is similar to that of a fractional Brownian motion. Our findings point to an evident relatively sudden change related to the emergence of persistency of the fractal power exponent fluctuations precedes an intense magnetic storm. These first results could be useful in the framework of extreme events prediction studies. 相似文献
3.
In the present paper storm time variations and 27-day geomagnetic periodicity have been analysed to estimate the depth of the substitute conductor, assuming an infinitely (super) conducting core model of the earth. The advantage of using data from a restricted longitude range is that the uncertainties arising from lateral contrasts in the upper mantle and contributions from Sq current systems are considerably reduced. The result of the present analysis, which has been done in the time domain, gives a value of 522 km for the depth of the substitute conductor in case of storm time variations which rises to 870 km for 27-day recurrent storms. A higher value of the depth for 27-day variations indicate that the rise in conductivity inside the earth is not like a step function rather is a gradual one. The value of 522 km for storm time variations for the Indian region is smaller than the global average. This is natural to expect because the Indian sub-continent is known to be a tectonically active region. 相似文献
4.
Storm surge prediction using an artificial neural network model and cluster analysis 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In this study, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict storm surges in all Korean coastal regions, with
a particular focus on regional extension. The cluster neural network model (CL-NN) assessed each cluster using a cluster analysis
methodology. Agglomerative clustering was used to determine the optimal clustering of 21 stations, based on a centroid-linkage
method of hierarchical clustering. Finally, CL-NN was used to predict storm surges in cluster regions. In order to validate
model results, sea levels predicted by the CL-NN model were compared with results using conventional harmonic analysis and
the artificial neural network model in each region (NN). The values predicted by the NN and CL-NN models were closer to observed
data than values predicted using harmonic analysis. Data such as root mean square error and correlation coefficient varied
only slightly between CL-NN and NN model results. These findings demonstrate that cluster analysis and the CL-NN model can
be used to predict regional storm surges and may be used to develop a forecast system. 相似文献
5.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):1-9
Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202
catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred
during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts
of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred.
They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic
storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal
distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms
were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather
conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas
the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease
in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm
intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting
a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms. 相似文献
6.
为研究降雨过程雨强随历时的变化关系,利用中国14个气象站近40年逐分钟降雨资料,采用动态K均值聚类法并根据雨峰在降雨过程中出现的位置,将中国10256次降雨过程分为4种类型,即降雨前期集中型（Ⅰ型）、降雨中期集中型（Ⅱ型）、降雨后期集中型（Ⅲ型）和降雨均匀分布型（IV型）。结果表明:中国Ⅰ型降雨出现频次最高,占47.1%;Ⅱ型次之,占21.2%;Ⅲ型和IV型出现频次相当,分别占15.3%和16.4%。夏季Ⅰ型降雨发生频次占绝对优势,为夏季总降水过程的52.2%;冬季各类雨型发生频次相差不大。Ⅰ型多为短历时高强度降雨,而IV型多为长历时低强度降雨,Ⅱ型和Ⅲ型居中。历时越短时,Ⅰ型降雨的比重越大;随着降雨历时的增加,Ⅰ型降雨的比重明显下降,IV型降雨的比重增加。 相似文献
7.
Jize Zhang Alexandros A. Taflanidis Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo Jeffrey A. Melby Fatimata Diop 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(3):1225-1253
This paper establishes various advancements for the application of surrogate modeling techniques for storm surge prediction utilizing an existing database of high-fidelity, synthetic storms (tropical cyclones). Kriging, also known as Gaussian process regression, is specifically chosen as the surrogate model in this study. Emphasis is first placed on the storm selection for developing the database of synthetic storms. An adaptive, sequential selection is examined here that iteratively identifies the storm (or multiple storms) that is expected to provide the greatest enhancement of the prediction accuracy when that storm is added into the already available database. Appropriate error statistics are discussed for assessing convergence of this iterative selection, and its performance is compared to the joint probability method with optimal sampling, utilizing the required number of synthetic storms to achieve the same level of accuracy as comparison metric. The impact on risk estimation is also examined. The discussion then moves to adjustments of the surrogate modeling framework to support two implementation issues that might become more relevant due to climate change considerations: future storm intensification and sea level rise (SLR). For storm intensification, the use of the surrogate model for prediction extrapolation is examined. Tuning of the surrogate model characteristics using cross-validation techniques and modification of the tuning to prioritize storms with specific characteristics are proposed, whereas an augmentation of the database with new/additional storms is also considered. With respect to SLR, the recently developed database for the US Army Corps of Engineers’ North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study is exploited to demonstrate how surrogate modeling can support predictions that include SLR considerations. 相似文献
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9.
D. S. V. V. D. Prasad P. V. S. Rama Rao G. Uma S. Gopi Krishna K. Venkateswarlu 《Journal of Earth System Science》2005,114(4):437-441
Using the data of amplitude scintillations recorded at 244 MHz from the geostationary satellite, FLEETSAT (73‡E) at a low
latitude station, Waltair (17.7‡N, 83.3‡E, 20‡N dip), during the increasing sunspot activity period of 1997–2000, the effect
of the geomagnetic storms on the occurrence of ionospheric scintillations has been studied. A total of 60 SC storms studied
during this period, following the Aarons’ criterion, reveals that the local time of onset of the recovery phase of the geomagnetic
storms play an important role in the generation or inhibition of the ionospheric irregularities. Out of the 60 storms studied,
nearly 60 to 70% satisfied the categories I, II and III of Aarons’ criteria. However, in the remaining 30 to 40% of the cases,
no consistent results were observed. Thus, there is a necessity for further investigation of the effect of geomagnetic storms
on ionospheric irregularities, particularly with reference to the altitude variations of the F-layer (h’F) relating to the
changes in the local electric fields. 相似文献
10.
Records of very damaging snowstorms, those causing more than $25 million in property losses, across the United States were
assessed to define the spatial and temporal dimensions of the nation’s snowstorm activity during 1949–2000. In this 52-year
period 155 snowstorms occurred and caused losses totaling $21.6 billion (2000 dollars). The northeastern U.S. had the nation’s
maximum storm occurrences (79 storms), total losses ($7.3 billion), and storm intensity. Two-thirds of all U.S. losses occurred
in the Northeast, Southeast, and Central climate regions, and storm occurrences and losses were least in the western U.S.
The incidence of storms peaked in the 1976–1985 period and exhibited no up or down trend during 1949–2000. However, national
losses had a significant upward time trend, as did storm sizes and intensity. States with the greatest number of storms were
New York (62) and Pennsylvania (58) with only 2 storms in Montana, Idaho, and Utah. Storm losses in the northeastern and southeastern
U.S. had U-shaped time distributions with flat time trends for 1949–2000, but losses in the western regions and Deep South
had distinct upward trends in losses and storm size. More than 90% of all storm losses in the western U.S. occurred after
1980. These findings indicating increased losses over time reflect that a rapidly growing population and vulnerability of
more property at risk have been major factors affecting losses, and the lack of a change over time in snowstorm incidences
suggests no change in climate during 1949–2000. 相似文献
11.
日地空间环境是人类生存发展的重要场所,太阳剧烈活动引起日地空间短时间尺度的变化,对人类社会带来严重影响和危害。本文简要介绍了空间天气学产生的背景和迅速发展的社会需求,当今国际合作研究的重大计划和进展,以及空间天气学研究的未来和展望。 相似文献
12.
The speeds of historical cool-season extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast, hereafter East Coast Winter Storms
(ECWS), occurring during the period from 1951 to 2006 were computed. Average storm speed was 13.8 ms−1 with stronger storms generally moving faster than weaker storms and faster storms forming during the midwinter months (December–March).
There was no clear trend in ECWS speed during the time period, although considerable season-to-season variability was present.
The monthly and seasonal variations in storm speed could not be attributed to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation or North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) alone. However, the speed of ECWS was considerably slower when both El Ni?o and the negative phase of NAO
occurred simultaneously. Characteristic patterns in the upper levels of the atmosphere, specifically 300 hPa zonal winds and
500 hPa geopotential heights, were present during periods when ECWS speeds were among the slowest (and separately fastest).
For slow storm speed, these patterns also prevailed during months in which El Ni?o and negative NAO phase occurred. These
patterns were also present during months with extended runs of high oceanic storm surge. This provides a qualitative link
between the atmospheric conditions associated with slow storms and potentially high coastal storm surge impacts. Among the
prime consequences of ECWS speed are extended periods of high storm surge, mainly due to slow-moving storms. The sustained
high tidal levels often lead to substantial damage caused by coastal flooding, overwash, and beach erosion. 相似文献
13.
Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model were for the first time used under the pseudo-climate simulation approach, to study the parameters of an extreme storm in the Baltic Sea area. We reconstructed the met-ocean conditions during the historical storm Gudrun (which caused a record-high +275 cm surge in Pärnu Bay on 9 January 2005) and simulated the future equivalent of Gudrun by modifying the background conditions using monthly mean value differences in sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric air temperature and relative humidity from MIROC5 in accordance with the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The simulated storm route and storm surge parameters were in good accordance with the observed ones. Despite expecting the continuation of recently observed intensification of cyclonic activity in winter months, our numerical simulations showed that intensity of the strongest storms and storm surges in the Baltic Sea might not increase by the end of twenty-first century. Unlike tropical cyclones, which derive their energy from the increasing SST, the extratropical cyclones (ETCs) harvest their primary energy from the thermal differences on the sides of the polar front, which may decrease if the Arctic warms up. For climatological generalizations on future ETCs, however, it is necessary to re-calculate a larger number of storms, including those with different tracks and in different thermal conditions. 相似文献
14.
Donald R. Cahoon 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(6):889-898
Storms have long been recognized as agents of geomorphic change to coastal wetlands. A review of recent data on soil elevation
dynamics before and after storms revealed that storms affected wetland elevations by storm surge, high winds, and freshwater
flushing of the estuary (inferred). The data also indicate that measures of sediment deposition and erosion can often misrepresent
the amount and even direction of elevation change because of storm influences on subsurface processes. Simultaneous influence
on both surface and subsurface processe by storms means that soil elevation cannot always be accurately estimated from surface
process data alone. Eight processes are identified as potentially influencing soil elevation: sediment deposition, sediment
erosion, sediment compaction, soil shrinkage, root decomposition (following tree mortality from high winds), root growth (following
flushing with freshwater, inferred), soil swelling, and lateral folding of the marsh root mat. Local wetland condition (e.g.,
marsh health, tide height, groundwater level) and the physical characteristics of the storm (e.g., angle of approach, proximity,
amount of rain, wind speed, and storm surge height) were apparently important factors determining the storm's effect on soil
elevation. Storm effect on elevation were both permanent (on an ecological time scale) and short-lived, but event short-term
changes have potentially important ecological consequences. Shallow soil subsidence or expansion caused by a storm must be
considered when calculating local rates of relative sea level rise and evaluating storm effects on wetland stability. 相似文献
15.
Storm extreme levels and coastal flood hazards: A parametric approach on the French coast of Languedoc (district of Leucate) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Brice Anselme Paul Durand Yves-François Thomas Alexandre Nicolae-Lerma 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2011,343(10):677-690
Coastal flooding is a significant risk on the shores of Languedoc-Roussillon. The storms that periodically hit the coast can generate strong swells and storm surges. Most beach resorts, built on a low elevation dune ridge, are periodically flooded during major storms. Although risks zoning regulations take into consideration coastal flood hazards, the delineation of vulnerable areas is still insufficient and the commonly accepted threshold is regularly exceeded during most severe storms. This paper presents a method to improve the assessment of extreme storm-related water levels. It relies on fieldwork carried out in the Leucate commune (Aude), which is particularly exposed to the risk of sea level rise. It considers both storm surges and wave phenomena that occur within the surf zone (set-up and swash), calculated from the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN®) numerical wave model and the Stockdon formula. Water levels reached during several recent storm events have been reconstructed and simulations of submerged areas were carried out by numerical modelling. 相似文献
16.
Galina V. Surkova Victor S. Arkhipkin Alexander V. Kislov 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2013,5(4):548-559
Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961–2000) and future (2046–2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961–2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961–2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of a method used to time adjust past storm losses 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
A widely used method for adjusting past annual storm losses to present day values, needed to address the ever-changing socio-economic
conditions, was assessed. The property insurance industry developed a comprehensive method for adjusting losses in past years
to current year loss values. Characteristics of hurricanes occurring 50+ years ago and those in the recent years were examined
to find similar early and recent pairs of storms for a comparative evaluation of their property losses. One pair found was
Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989), and another pair with similar features was Hurricanes Carol (1954) and Bob (1991).
The insurance-based adjusted property loss values for these two pairs of storms were compared to determine if the early year
values were comparable to the recent year values. The adjusted losses of the two pairs of hurricanes were found to have small
differences of 7.8% and 8.1%, and these differences were due to somewhat different storm paths and slightly higher wind speeds
in the two storms having higher losses. The adjustment method appears to adequately capture time differences in storm losses
due to changes in population, wealth, inflation, structural density, and insurance coverage. 相似文献
18.
This study focuses on storm deposits in the Muschelkalk facies of the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain) and interprets their deposition mechanisms. Three types of storm deposit are distinguished: (i) pot/gutter casts; (ii) tempestite beds; and (iii) storm‐winnowed deposits. Each deposit provides information about the carbonate platform environment in which it was deposited. The tempestite models proposed are: (i) the bypass‐zone tempestite model, occurring in a muddy ramp at the epicontinental basin margin. This model is characterized by potholes and gutters that form in a shoreline bypass‐zone during storms; (ii) the gradient‐current tempestite model in which frequent tempestite beds are related to storm gradient currents. Thickness and grain size decrease towards the deep distal ramp; and (iii) the winnowed deposit tempestite model whereby storm deposits are winnowed and deposited in the same environment with only short lateral transport having occurred. This model evokes more restricted and shallower conditions, lagoons or inland seas. The distribution of all these deposits in the stratigraphic sections studied corroborate the eustatic third‐order cycle identified, although the different features of the storm deposits and their positions in each section indicate a subsidence varying in time and space. In the transgressive stage, the margins of the epicontinental basin were a well‐developed ramp with potholes and gutters. In contrast, during the high sea‐level stage, storm deposits generated tempestite beds or storm‐winnowed deposits in the different areas. The epicontinental carbonate platform with ramp edges evolved into a complex depositional system of coastal and shallow‐marine environments with lagoons and restricted inland seas. Thus, the epicontinental platform underwent substantial change from the Late Anisian to the Late Ladinian and this is reflected in its storm deposits. 相似文献
19.
牟传龙 《沉积与特提斯地质》1988,8(2):23-31
近年来,随着风暴流和风暴岩的新理论、新概念的不断引入,在分析沉积环境、沉积成矿作用时,不断提出了许多新思路,也不断地冲击和修正以往的传统认识,作者于1986年随同成都地矿所寒武系磷矿专题组对滇东一带包括昆阳梅树村、海口、鸣矣河、晋宁王家湾、二街、八街、安宁白登、江川清水沟、宜良大滴水、寻甸先锋等矿区的磷矿进行了详细的研究,在下寒武统中谊村段及其相当的地层中发现了多层磷质风暴沉积物。本文拟概略介绍磷质风暴沉积物的标志、特征、剖面结构并初步探讨磷矿富集与风暴事件关系的沉积演化模式。 相似文献
20.
Stephen Vermette 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):91-103
The tropical storm database used in this study was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)
Coastal Service Center, using the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool. Queries were used to determine the number of storms of
tropical origin that have impacted the State and each of its counties. A total of 76 storms of tropical origin passed over
New York State between 1851 and 2005. Of these storms, 14 were classified as hurricanes. The remaining hurricanes passed over
New York State as weaker or modified systems—27 tropical storms, 7 tropical depressions, and 28 extratropical storms (ET).
Long Island experiences a disproportionate number of hurricanes and tropical storms. The average frequency of hurricanes and
storms of tropical origin (all types) is one in every 11 years and one in every 2 years, respectively. September is the month
of greatest frequency for storms of tropical origin, although the storms of greatest intensity tend to arrive later in the
hurricane season and follow different poleward tracks. While El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles appear to show some
influence, the frequency and intensity of storms of tropical origin appear to follow a multidecadal cycle. Storm activity
was greatest in both the late 19th and 20th centuries. During periods of increased storm frequency and intensity storms reached
New York State at progressively later dates. While the number and timing of storms of tropical origin is likely to increase,
this increase appears to be attributed to a multidecadal cycle, as opposed to a trend in global warming. 相似文献