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1.
在库水位升降及降雨作用下,三峡库区不少土质滑坡出现周期性阶跃变形,此类滑坡变形机理复杂,预警预报难。以典型涉水土质滑坡卧沙溪滑坡为例,通过10多年野外宏观巡查资料、13年的人工监测和4年的全自动监测数据,揭示卧沙溪滑坡次级滑体的变形机理,建立降雨及库水位相关阈值。结果表明：(1)次级滑体变形的主控因素由库水位下降和库水浸泡转变为持续性降雨。(2)持续性降雨导致坡体变形,监测点位移速率“峰值滞后”效应为1～2 d,位移速率衰减时间为5～9 d。(3)降雨及库水位阈值：30 d累积降雨量阈值150 mm,且变形前1 d降雨量40 mm;变形启动3 d内,累积降雨量超过50 mm会加速坡体变形,且变形时间延长。库水位下降至146 m前30 d累积降雨量115 mm,库水位下降速率阈值为0.8 m/d。研究成果可为类似滑坡的监测预警提供参考。 相似文献
2.
鄱阳湖夏季水面蒸发与蒸发皿蒸发的比较 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
水面蒸发是湖泊水量平衡要素的重要组成部分.基于传统蒸发皿观测蒸发不能代表实际水面蒸发,而实际水面蒸发特征仍不清楚.本研究基于涡度相关系统观测的鄱阳湖水体实际水面蒸发过程,在小时和日尺度分析了水面蒸发的变化规律及其主要影响因子,并与蒸发皿蒸发进行比较.研究表明,实际水面蒸发日变化波动剧烈,变化范围在0~0.4 mm/h之间.水面蒸发的日变化特征主要受风速的影响.鄱阳湖8月份日水面蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量在总体趋势上具有很好的一致性.8月份平均日水面蒸发速率(5.90 mm/d)比蒸发皿蒸发速率(5.65 mm/d)高4.6%.水面日蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量的比值在8月上、中、下旬平均值分别为1.24、1.00、0.92,呈现下降的趋势.鄱阳湖夏季水面日蒸发量与风速和相对湿度相关性显著,而蒸发皿蒸发与净辐射、气温、饱和水汽压差和相对湿度均呈显著相关.这是由于蒸发皿水体容积小,与湖泊相比其水体热存储能力小,因此更容易受到环境因子的影响. 相似文献
3.
太湖流域快速城镇化、水利工程等一系列人类活动对流域水文过程产生了深刻影响.本文以快速城镇化的杭嘉湖地区为例,基于1961-2014年逐日降雨、水位观测资料,构建了水位涨幅（ΔZ）、水位增长速率（k1）和退水速率（k2）等指标,旨在揭示变化环境下该地区降雨过程中水位的变化特征及可能的驱动因素.结果表明：1）变化环境下杭嘉湖地区近54年降雨量呈微弱的增加趋势,但降雨过程中的水位涨幅呈下降趋势,尤其是平均水位涨幅呈显著下降趋势,且于2000年左右发生明显变化;突变后水位涨幅下降主要集中在10~50 mm/d的降雨过程中,而大于50 mm/d的降雨过程中突变后水位涨幅较突变前有所升高.2）从空间分布上来看,各站降雨量与水位涨幅存在明显的空间差异,降雨量总体呈增加趋势,增加趋势东强西弱;大部分站点的水位涨幅却呈下降趋势,其中位于区域南部站点的平均水位涨幅下降趋势较东北部更为明显,水位涨幅呈显著下降站点的空间分布与杭嘉湖南排工程等水利工程的分布较为一致.3）通过对杭嘉湖地区降雨过程中水位增长速率和退水速率的变化分析发现,突变后较突变前退水速率有所提高,说明近年来水利工程等设施的完善和有序调度使得杭嘉湖地区的排洪能力有所提高,该变化可能是导致杭嘉湖地区地区突变后一定强度的降雨过程中水位涨幅下降的主要原因.而杭嘉湖地区强降雨过程中水位涨幅依然较高,可能是该地区洪峰水位居高不下的主要原因.此外,由于该地区近年来起涨水位抬升明显,对洪峰水位的抬升也有一定影响. 相似文献
4.
由辐射传输方程推导星载被动微波遥感SSM/I辐射观测的极化指数PI,凸现地表土壤湿度的变化与距平异常ΔnPI,用特征性指数PI、ΔnPI和散射指数SI来监测大尺度陆地地面的降雨和地区土壤湿度、洪涝汛情的变化.用中国淮河流域7年同月SSM/I观测数据的平均<PI>,洪涝期间的PI,ΔnPI和SI监测该流域2003年7月的洪涝汛情.提出距平异常值指数K分布,定量评估了洪涝汛情的范围和程度. 相似文献
5.
利用昭通中心站YRY-4钻孔应变仪前兆观测数据资料,提取降雨对该仪器观测数据的干扰事件,采用降雨总量、瞬间最大值降雨量两类降雨分类统计方法,定量分析降雨对观测数据产生的影响。结果表明:当降雨总量达到40 mm、瞬间最大值降雨量大于0.4 mm时,YRY-4钻孔应变仪观测数据受降雨干扰明显;当降雨总量大于40 mm时,降雨总量与观测数据应变量呈线性关系,瞬间最大值降雨量与降雨总量之间无显著的对应关系。分析认为,降雨干扰影响主要来自降雨渗透和台站周边地质抗水体荷载量大小两个方面。定量分析降雨干扰,有利于区分异常与干扰,积累经验,以便于及时对有效异常进行判定,为地震研究服务。 相似文献
6.
贵州蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及影响因素分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
以贵州境内18个气象站1961-2001年逐日气象观测数据为基础,采用Mann-Kendal非参数检验方法、相关分析和主成分分析方法对贵州近41年来蒸发皿蒸发量及其主要影响因子(太阳净辐射、气温、相对湿度和风速等)进行了相关性及趋势性分析.结果表明:近41年来,贵州年平均蒸发皿蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,通过99%的置信度检验,蒸发量的下降主要表现在冬、春、夏三季.从区域分布来看,蒸发皿蒸发量整体上东部及西北部分地区显著减少,其他地区趋势变化不明显.蒸发皿蒸发量下降的主要原因是太阳净辐射的显著下降. 相似文献
7.
2008年5.12汶川大地震发生在中国大陆南北地震带中段.由于龙门山断裂带历史上只发生过3次6～61/2级强震,而且其晚第四纪构造活动速率很低,以至于对其潜在地震危险性认识不足.为什么在龙门山地区突发大地震,该地震具有哪些特征？其成因机制是什么？本文在地震地质科学考察的基础上,利用震前的GPS观测结果,试图对上述问题进行一些初步的思考和探讨.结果表明,5.12汶川大地震是龙门山断裂带的映秀—北川断裂突发错动的结果,地表上形成200多公里长的地表破裂带;灌县—江油断裂在地震中也发生了破裂,形成的地表破裂带长达60多公里.震前的GPS观测表明,横跨整个龙门山断裂带的滑动速率不超过～2 mm/yr,单条断裂的活动速率不超过～1 mm/yr,与地震地质研究结果和历史地震记录相一致.利用地震地质考察和地震波反演得到的最大同震位移可以获得相当于5.12汶川大地震的强震复发周期为2000～6000年.龙门山断裂带发育在破裂强度很大的变质杂岩体中,断裂带本身在剖面上呈“犁形”或“铲形”结构,有利于能量积累,形成破坏性巨大的地震.所以,5.12汶川大地震是一次低滑动速率、长复发周期和高破坏强度的巨大地震,是一种值得高度重视和深入研究的新的地震类型. 相似文献
8.
湖库淡水水域对温室气体排放的贡献不容小觑,然而观测时间的代表性不足以及缺乏对降雨因素的考虑制约了碳排放的准确估计.本研究以湖北宜昌境内官庄水库为例,选取强降雨多发的夏季时段,针对水气界面温室气体通量、水体表层和垂向剖面气体溶存浓度及环境因子开展了为期1周的原位高频观测,以探讨夏季降雨事件对水库温室气体通量变化的影响.结果表明,观测期内官庄水库水气界面CH4通量变化范围为0.007~0.077 mg/（m2·h）,CO2通量范围为5.48~57.57 mg/（m2·h）,白天和夜晚均表现为大气的碳源.小雨、中雨乃至暴雨天气条件下,CH4和CO2日均通量均较低,日通量倾向于受风速和温度调控.CH4和CO2通量变化趋势较为一致,观测期内日间排放量高于夜间排放量出现的次数更多,昼夜差异对降雨天气状况无明显响应,风速是CH4和CO2通量昼夜变化的主导因素.暴雨过程中,CH4-k600和CO2-k600与水气温差存在显著正相关,但水体垂向混合过程十分短暂.在平均雨强为3.8 mm/h的暴雨第I阶段,CH4-k600对风速和降雨的响应明显,而在雨强更大（8.5 mm/h）的第II阶段,CH4-k600与风速、降雨均未表现出相关性,通量箱在强降雨条件下的适用性可能存在雨强阈值. 相似文献
9.
湖泊蒸发对气候变化非常敏感, 是水文循环响应气候变化的指示因子, 因此研究湖泊蒸发的控制因素, 对于理解区域水文循环有重要意义. 本文利用太湖中尺度涡度通量网避风港站观测数据校正JRA-55再分析资料, 驱动CLM4.0-LISSS模型, 并利用2012—2017年涡度相关通量数据和湖表面温度数据检验模型模拟蒸发结果, 验证了该模型在太湖的适用性; 估算了1958—2017年间太湖的湖面蒸发量, 并利用Manner-Kendall趋势检验分析了湖面蒸发的变化趋势, 寻找太湖实际蒸发的年际变化的主控因子. 结果如下: 校正后的JRA-55再分析资料模拟的太湖蒸发与观测值之间存在季节偏差, 但是季节偏差在年尺度上相互抵消, 再分析资料可用于年际尺度太湖蒸发变化的模拟; 1958—2017年间太湖蒸发量以1977年为界, 先下降(-3.6 mm/a), 后增加(2.3 mm/a); 多元逐步回归结果表明, 向下的短波辐射是太湖1958—2017年间太湖蒸发变化的主控因子, 向下的长波辐射、气温、比湿也对湖泊蒸发年际变化有一定影响, 但是风速对蒸发量的年际变化影响不大. 相似文献
10.
位于中国西南的小江 (Xiaojiang)断裂带作为康定 (Kangding)断裂带的南段 ,在青藏块体向SE方向挤出的过程中起着重要的作用。根据断错地貌以及这些断错地貌14 C年代或热释光年代 ,推算了小江断裂带第四纪晚期的左旋走滑速率。小江断裂带可以分为 3段 ,其中段由平行的两条断层组成。西支断层和东支断层的左旋走滑速率分别为 7.0～ 9.0mm/ yr和 6 .0～ 7.5mm/yr。简单相加 ,就可以推算出小江 (Xiaojiang)断裂带总的左旋走滑速率为 13 0～ 16 5mm/ yr,与康定断裂带北段的鲜水河 (Xianshuihe)断层的走滑速率大致相当 ,约等于康定 (Kangding)断裂带中段的安宁河 (Anninghe)断层及则木河 (Zemuhe)断层的两倍。这个结果可能暗示了在康定断裂带中段 ,可能存在着其他断层以解消另外一半的滑动速率。最有可能的断层是位于康定断裂带中段以东几十公里的普雄河 -布拖 (Puxionghe Butuo)断层 相似文献
11.
Mehmet Simav Hasan Yildiz Ali Türkezer Onur Lenk Emin ?zsoy 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2012,56(1):215-230
Sea level trends and interannual variability at Antalya and Menteş tide gauges are investigated during the 1985–2001 period,
quantifying the roles of atmospheric, steric and local land motion contributions. Tide gauge sea level measurements, temperature/salinity
climatologies and GPS data are used in the analyses and the results are compared with the output of a barotropic model forced
by atmospheric pressure and wind. The overall sea level trends at two tide gauges collocated with GPS are in the range of
5.5 to 7.9 mm/yr during the study period, but showing different behaviour in the sub-periods 1985–1993 and 1993–2001 due to
variations in the contributing factors both in space and time. After the removal of the atmospheric forcing and steric contribution
from sea level records, the resulting trends vary between 1.9 to 4.5 mm/yr in Antalya and −1.2 to −11.6 mm/yr in Menteş depending
on the period considered. Vertical land movement estimated from GPS data seems to explain the high positive residual trend
in Antalya during the whole period. On the other hand, the source of the highly negative sea level trend of about −14 mm/yr
in Menteş during 1985–1993 could not be resolved with the available datasets. Interannual variability of wind and atmospheric
pressure appear to dominate the sea level at both tide gauges during the study period. Atmospheric and steric contributions
together account for ∼50% of the total sea level variance at interannual time scales. Mass induced sea level variations which
were not considered in this study may help to close the sea level trend budgets as well as to better explain the interannual
sea level variance. 相似文献
12.
Response of water and energy exchange to the environmental variable in a desert‐oasis wetland of Northwest China 
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下载免费PDF全文 A case study on a desert‐oasis wetland ecosystem in the arid region of Northwest China measured the seasonal and interannual variation in energy partitioning and evapotranspiration to analyse the response of water and energy exchange on soil moisture, groundwater, and environmental variables. Energy partitioning showed a clear seasonal and interannual variability, and the process of water and energy exchange differed significantly in the monthly and interannual scales. The net radiation was 7.31 MJ m?2· day?1, and sensible heat flux accounted for 50.42% of net radiation in energy fluxes, 40.56% for latent heat flux, and 9.02% for ground heat flux. The parameters in energy fluxes were best described by a unimodal curve, whereas sensible heat flux followed a bimodal curve. Variations in the daily evapotranspiration and crop evapotranspiration also exhibited a single peak curve with annual values of 569.84 and 644.47 mm, respectively. Canopy conductance averaged 20.77 ± 13.75 mm s?1 and varied from 0.16 to 83.96 mm s?1 during the two hydrological years. The variation in water and energy exchange reflected environmental conditions and depended primarily on vapour pressure deficit, net radiation, soil moisture, and water depth. Although the effects of precipitation on evapotranspiration showed that the response of this ecosystem to climate changes was not obvious, the variation of air temperatures had a strong influence on evapotranspiration, resulting in a significant increase in evapotranspiration (R = 0.730; P < 0.01). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
For small tropical islands with limited freshwater resources, understanding how island hydrology is influenced by regional climate is important, considering projected hydroclimate and sea level changes as well as growing populations dependent on limited groundwater resources. However, the relationship between climate variability and hydrologic variability for many tropical islands remains uncertain due to local hydroclimatic data scarcity. Here, we present a case study from Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2°N, 157°W), utilizing the normalized difference vegetation index to investigate variability in island surface water area, an important link between climate variability and groundwater storage. Kiritimati surface water area varies seasonally, following wet and dry seasons, and interannually, due to hydroclimate variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The NIÑO3.4 sea surface temperature index, satellite‐derived precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, and local sea level all had significant positive correlations with surface water area. Lagged correlations show sea level changes and precipitation influence surface water area up to 6 months later. Differences in the timing of surface water area changes and variable climate‐surface water area correlations in island subregions indicate that surface hydrology on Kiritimati is not uniform in response to climate variations. Rather, the magnitude of the ocean–atmosphere anomalies and island–ocean connectivity determine the extent to which sea level and precipitation control surface water area. The very strong 2015–2016 El Niño event led to the largest surface water area measured in the 18‐year data set. Surface water area decreased to pre‐event values in a similarly rapid manner (<6 months) after both the very strong 2015–2016 event and the 2009–2010 moderate El Niño event. Future changes in the frequency and amplitude of interannual hydroclimate variability as well as seasonal duration will thus alter surface water coverage on Kiritimati, with implications for freshwater resources, flooding, and drought. 相似文献
14.
为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段. 相似文献
15.
Kazuyoshi Suzuki Tetsuya Hiyama Koji Matsuo Kazuhito Ichii Yoshihiro Iijima Dai Yamazaki 《水文研究》2020,34(19):3867-3881
River runoff from the four largest Siberian river basins (the Ob, Yenisei, Lena, and Kolyma) considerably contributes to freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean from the Eurasian continent. However, the effects of variation in snow cover fraction on the ecohydrological variations in these basins are not well understood. In this study, we analysed the spatiotemporal variability of the maximum snow cover fraction (SCFmax) in the four Siberian river basins. We compared the SCFmax from 2000 to 2016 with data in terms of monthly temperature and precipitation, night-time surface temperatures, the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA), the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), and river runoff. Our results exhibit a decreasing trend in the April SCFmax values since 2000, largely in response to warming air temperatures in April. We identified snowmelt water as the dominant control on the observed increase in the runoff contribution in May across all four Siberian river basins. In addition, we detected that the interannual river runoff was predominantly controlled by interannual variations in the TWSA. The NDVI in June was strongly controlled by the timing of the snowmelt along with the surface air temperature and TWSA in June. The rate of increase in the freshwater flux from the four Siberian rivers decreased from 2000 to 2016, exhibiting large interannual variations corresponding to interannual variations in the TWSA. However, we identified a clear increase trend in the freshwater flux of ~4 km3/year when analysing the long-term 39-year historical record (1978–2016). Our results suggest that continued global warming will accelerate the transition towards the earlier timing of snowmelt and spring freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean. Our findings also highlight the effects of earlier snowmelt on ecohydrological changes in the Northern Hemisphere. 相似文献
16.
Andrea Lübben Olaf Dellwig Sandra Koch Melanie Beck Thomas H. Badewien Sibylle Fischer Rainer Reuter 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(2):263-275
The spatial and temporal distributions of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC)
was studied in the East-Frisian Wadden Sea (Southern North Sea) during several cruises between 2002 and 2005. The spatial
distribution of CDOM in the German Bight shows a strong gradient towards the coast. Tidal and seasonal variations of dissolved
organic matter (DOM) identify freshwater discharge via flood-gates at the coastline and pore water efflux from tidal flat
sediments as the most important CDOM sources within the backbarrier area of the Island of Spiekeroog. However, the amount
and pattern of CDOM and DOC is strongly affected by various parameters, e.g. changes in the amount of terrestrial run-off,
precipitation, evaporation, biological activity and photooxidation. A decoupling of CDOM and DOC, especially during periods
of pronounced biological activity (algae blooms and microbial activity), is observed in spring and especially in summer. Mixing
of the endmembers freshwater, pore water, and open sea water results in the formation of a coastal transition zone. Whilst
an almost conservative behaviour during mixing is observed in winter, summer data point towards non-conservative mixing. 相似文献
17.
北极海冰的急剧消融在近年来欧亚大陆频发的低温事件中扮演着关键角色.秋季北极海冰的偏少对应着冬季欧亚大陆的低温天气,然而二者的联系在年代际和年际两种时间尺度上存在显著区别.本文运用1979—2012年哈德莱中心第一套海冰覆盖率(HadISST1)、欧洲中心(ERA_Interim)的2m温度、风场、海平面气压场、高度场等资料,分别研究了年代际和年际时间尺度上前期秋季北极海冰与欧亚冬季气温的联系.结果表明,欧亚和北极地区(0°—160°E,15°N—90°N)的冬季气温具有显著的年代际和年际变化.在年代际尺度上,温度异常分布在21世纪初由北极冷-大陆暖转为北极暖-大陆冷.这一年代际转折与前期秋季整个北极地区的海冰年代际减少联系密切.秋季北极全区海冰年代际偏少对应冬季欧亚大陆中高纬地区的高压异常,有利于北大西洋的暖湿气流北上和北极的冷空气南侵,造成北极暖-大陆冷的温度分布;在年际时间尺度上,温度异常分布主要由第一模态的年际变化部分和第二模态组成,且第一模态包含的年际变率信号也存在显著的年代际变化.年际尺度上全区北极海冰对欧亚冬季气温的影响远不及位于北冰洋西南边缘的巴伦支海、喀拉海和拉普捷夫海西部(30°E—120°E,75°N—85°N)的关键区海冰影响显著.关键区内海冰的偏少会引发冬季的北大西洋涛动负位相,导致北大西洋吹往欧亚大陆的暖湿气流减弱和欧亚大陆中高纬地区的气温偏低. 相似文献
18.
As a part of Jordan’s efforts to quantify the effect of the Dead Sea level decline on the precious groundwater resources of the surrounding aquifers, the authors analyzed the historic or predevelopment inflows and outflows of the Dead Sea basin and the resulting water balance which included precipitation, evaporation, surface‐ and groundwaters. The predevelopment situation was taken as the point of departure for the sake of this study. Furthermore, the present situation was analyzed in an attempt to quantify the groundwater inflows into the Dead Sea as a result of drop in the Dead Sea level. The groundwater component and the corresponding saltwater/freshwater interface were taken as the variables to balance the levels of the sea that would have been reached without the contribution of the uncontrolled groundwater inflows as a result of the salt/freshwater interface seaward migration. The present day water balance that includes all the water diversion projects from all riparians indicates serious declines in the Dead Sea level. The effects of the present day level declines on the fresh groundwater/saltwater interface indicate that considerable amounts of groundwater are driven into the Sea as a result of the seaward migration of the freshwater/saline water interface. 相似文献
19.
We examine multi-year conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data to better understand temperature and salinity variability over the central Bering Sea shelf. Particular consideration is given to observations made annually from 2002 to 2007 between August and October, although other seasons and years are also considered. Vertical and horizontal correlation maps show that near-surface and near-bottom salinity anomalies tend to fluctuate in phase across the central shelf, but that temperature anomalies are vertically coherent only in the weakly or unstratified inner-shelf waters. We formulate heat content (HC) and freshwater content (FWC) budgets based on the CTD observations, direct estimates of external fluxes (surface heat fluxes, ice melt, precipitation (P), evaporation (E) and river discharge), and indirect estimates of advective contributions. Ice melt, P−E, river discharge, and along-isobath advection are sufficient to account for the mean spring-to-fall increase in FWC, while summer surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for the mean seasonal increase in HC, although interannual variability in the HC at the end of summer appears related to variability in the along-isobath advection during the summer months. On the other hand, FWC anomalies at the end of summer are significantly correlated with the mean wind direction and cross-isobath Ekman transport averaged over the previous winter. Consistent with the latter finding, salinities exhibit a weak but significant inverse correlation between the coastal and mid-shelf waters. The cross-shelf transport likely has significant effect on nutrient fluxes and other processes important to the functioning of the shelf ecosystem. Both the summer and winter advection fields appear to result from the seasonal mean position and strength of the Aleutian Low. We find that interannual thermal and haline variability over the central Bering Sea shelf are largely uncoupled. 相似文献
20.
Uplift of a broad area centered ~6 km west of the summit of South Sister volcano started in September 1997 (onset estimated
from model discussed in this paper) and was continuing when surveyed in August 2006. Surface displacements were measured whenever
possible since August 1992 with satellite radar interferometry (InSAR), annually since August 2001 with GPS and leveling surveys,
and with continuous GPS since May 2001. The average maximum displacement rate from InSAR decreased from 3–5 cm/yr during 1998–2001
to ~1.4 cm/yr during 2004–2006. The other datasets show a similar pattern, i.e., surface uplift and extension rates decreased
over time but deformation continued through August 2006. Our best-fit model to the deformation data is a vertical, prolate,
spheroidal point-pressure source located 4.9–5.4 km below the surface. The source inflation rate decreased exponentially during
2001–2006 with a 1/e decay time of 5.3 ± 1.1 years. The net increase in source volume from September 1997 to August 2006 was 36.5–41.9 x 106 m3. A swarm of ~300 small (M
max = 1.9) earthquakes occurred beneath the deforming area in March 2004; no other unusual seismicity has been noted. Similar
deformation episodes in the past probably would have gone unnoticed if, as we suspect, most are small intrusions that do not
culminate in eruptions. 相似文献