共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 203 毫秒
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Jianping LI Tiejun XIE Xinxin TANG Hao WANG Cheng SUN Juan FENG Fei ZHENG Ruiqiang DING 《大气科学进展》2022,39(4):625-642
In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter. 相似文献
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Xiangdong ZHANG Yunfei FU Zhe HAN James E.OVERLAND Annette RINKE Han TANG Timo VIHMA Muyin WANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(4):553-565
Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21.These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes.The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes,which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming(SSW).The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux,reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)to induce the major SSW.The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings,steering cold polar air outbreaks.The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period.The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state.The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in“One Health,One Future”. 相似文献
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QIN Xiao-Hao 《大气和海洋科学快报》2010,3(3):170-175
In this paper, several sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were designed for three typhoon cases to determine whether or not the additional observation data in the sensitive regions identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) could improve the short-range forecast of typhoons. The results show that the CNOPs capture the sensitive regions for typhoon forecasts, which implies that conducting additional observation in these specific regions and eliminating initial errors could reduce forecast errors. It is inferred from the results that dropping sondes in the CNOP sensitive regions could lead to improvements in typhoon forecasts. 相似文献
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With temperatures increasing as a result of global warming,extreme high temperatures are becoming more intense and more frequent on larger scale during summer in China.In recent years,a variety of researches have examined the high temperature distribution in China.However,it hardly considers the variation of temperature data and systems when defining the threshold of extreme high temperature.In order to discern the spatio-temporal distribution of extreme heat in China,we examined the daily maximum temperature data of 83 observation stations in China from 1950 to 2008.The objective of this study was to understand the distribution characteristics of extreme high temperature events defined by Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA).The statistical methods of Permutation Entropy(PE)were also used in this study to analyze the temporal distribution.The results showed that the frequency of extreme high temperature events in China presented 3 periods of 7,10—13 and 16—20 years,respectively.The abrupt changes generally happened in the 1960s,the end of 1970s and early 1980s.It was also found that the maximum frequency occurred in the early 1950s,and the frequency decreased sharply until the late 1980s when an evidently increasing trend emerged.Furthermore,the annual averaged frequency of extreme high temperature events reveals a decreasing-increasing-decreasing trend from southwest to northeast China,but an increasing-decreasing trend from southeast to northwest China.And the frequency was higher in southern region than that in northern region.Besides,the maximum and minimum of frequencies were relatively concentrated spatially.Our results also shed light on the reasons for the periods and abrupt changes of the frequency of extreme high temperature events in China. 相似文献
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1引言在自动站投入使用前绝大多数气象站使用的是EL型风向风速计,其瞬间风速是通过风速指示计人工测得的,人为因素大,精度不够,但人工测量给大风重要天气报、大风危险和解除报提供了依据,不会出现大风记录和报文之间的矛盾现象,而自动站的大风记录却不一样,其记录的大风的起止时间,极大风速及出现的时间是非常精确的,要求值班员实时注意查看自动站的大风记录,避免漏报、错报。由于自动站采集控制软件SAWSS在处理大风记录时存在不足,当大风达到不同的发报标准时不能及时报警,以提醒值班人员作出相应的处理,所以极易造成过时报,甚至漏报。 相似文献
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气象水文灾害的防灾减灾教育培训新进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
智协飞 《南京气象学院学报》2007,30(6):885-889
简要综述了第十届世界气象组织教育与培训大会的主题报告内容.本次大会主要讨论防灾减灾的气象水文教育与培训等问题,集中讨论了"备灾-预防和早期预警"、"减灾-应急、救援和重建"和"跨学科培训"等3个主题,强调集合数值预报系统对于估计出现极端天气事件的风险非常重要,同时必须培训气象、水文工作者使用集合预报中的概率预报信息.中国气象灾害监测、预测和预警已经从单纯提供一般意义上的气象灾害信息提升到有利于社会经济发展的气象灾害服务,既考虑自然因子也考虑经济发展的影响.在跨学科培训方面,将管理知识和气象知识结合起来,可以取得非常好的效果.大会建议提高世界气象组织区域培训中心以及各国气象水文部门培训单位的培训能力,主要通过提供防灾减灾的专门培训单元,对自然灾害风险管理短期课程进行指导,重视各国气象水文部门对于管理和传播领域培训的需求. 相似文献
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不稳定热带海气相互作用中快波的过滤 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ｐｈｉｌａｎｄｅｒ［１］明确指出在热带海气耦合系统中能够存在不稳定的海气相互作用。Ｐｈｉｌａｎｄｅｒ等［２］的数值计算表明，由于海气相互作用，不稳定扰动可以向东传播。Ｙａｍａｇａｔａ［３］和Ｈｉｒｓｔ［４］从理论上也证明了海气之间存在着正反馈过程。巢纪平和张人禾［５］运用一个流场和压力场的高阶平衡近似，即在热带大气和海洋中只存在向西传播的赤道Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波时，得出了两种介质中向西传播的赤道Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波通过海气相互作用过程，可以产生向西传的不稳定波。并且在一定条件下，还可出现一类不属于Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波的向东传的不稳定波，这些结果对解释ＥＮＳＯ事件的传播过程是值得参考的。 相似文献
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Zhang Xiangdong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1992,6(3):287-298
The propagation features, stabilities and dynamical characteristic structures of coupled Kelvin inner modes andsecond order Rossby inner modes are studied using a simple tropical coupled air-sea model in this paper. It is shownthat there is mechanism of selecting scale and frequency in the tropical air-sea system. The effects of air-sea couplingare mainly on the large-scale modes and nonuniform. These effects make the frequency of Kelvin modes decrease andeven excite the eastward propagating Rossby inner modes. These effects make the unstable development of Kelvinmodes and result in the decay of Rossby modes. The effects of atmospheric damp are opposite to those of air-sea coup-ling. The oceanic damp only make the wave amplitudes decay. Simutaneously, this paper shows the dynamical character-istic structures of air-sea coupled system and the phase relations between the atmospheric and the oceanic wave compo-nent. 相似文献
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利用1951-2000年北太平洋海温和副高特征量资料，探讨夏半年副高与前期海温的关系，发现影响副高活动的海温关键区赤道东太平洋前期信息最明显，从前期秋季持续至春季都保持与夏半年各月副高强度、西伸脊点位置的高相关；ENS0事件的形成超前于副高强度的转折约半年时间；El Nino年副高持续偏强偏西，La Nina年则相反，脊线位置也有所反映，但不如强度与西伸显著。在此基础上进一步分析表明，福建雨季降水、副高强度与Nino 3区海温存在着大约相一致的年代际振荡与突变时间；雨季降水分布的异常直接受到副高活动的影响，而副高活动又明显受ENS0循环的制约，因而关注赤道东太平洋海温异常及ENS0信息对福建雨季降水分布趋势的预测旦有重要意义。 相似文献
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1INTRODUCTIONAsshowninobservationalfacts,theevolutionofElNi駉displaysastheamplitudeexpansionandmigrationofanomalousdisturbancesinair-seacouplingsystems.Theoreticaladdressofthephenomenonhasbeenattemptedfromtheaspectofcouplingdynamics.Theresultsshowthattheair-seainteractionsystemincludesakindofunstablemode,whichispropagatingindirectionsdeterminedbyfactorsgoverningSSTchanges.Withanair-seacouplingmodel,Lau[1]wasamongtheearliestpeoplewhodiscoveredunstablestationarywavemodesintheair-seaintera… 相似文献
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IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC COUPLED PROCESS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The basic features of climatology and interannual variations of tropical Pacific and Indian
Oceans were analyzed using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), which was constituted with an
intermediate 2.5-layer ocean model and atmosphere model ECHAM4. The CGCM well captures the spatial
and temporal structure of the Pacific El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability features in
the tropical Indian Ocean. The influence of Pacific air-sea coupled process on the Indian Ocean variability
was investigated carefully by conducting numerical experiments. Results show that the occurrence
frequency of positive/negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will decrease/increase with the
presence/absence of the coupled process in the Pacific Ocean. Further analysis demonstrated that the
air-sea coupled process in the Pacific Ocean affects the IOD variability mainly by influencing the zonal
gradient of thermocline via modulating the background sea surface wind. 相似文献
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In this paper, the tropical air-sea interaction is discussed by using a simple air-sea coupled model, in which the inertia-gravity waves are filtered off and only the equatorial Rossby waves are reserved in both the atmosphere and the ocean. There exist two kinds of air-sea interaction waves in the coupled model, that is, the high-frequency fast waves and the low-frequency slow waves. The phase speed of the fast waves is westward and the frequencies are close to those of the equatorial Rossby waves in the atmosphere. The slow waves propagate westward in the part of short wavelengths and eastward in that of long wavelengths. There exist instabilities for both the westward and eastward propagating slow waves. If the fast waves are filtered off, there is little effect on the slow waves which have great in-fluence on the long range process in the tropical air-sea coupled system. According to the tropical air-sea interaction waves we obtain here, a possible explanation to the propagating process of ENSO events is given. 相似文献
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中低纬海气相互作用的耦合模态变化研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用1948—2003年的NCEP再分析资料和英国气象局Hadley气候预测和研究中心的海表面温度资料,从整体分析地球中低纬三大洋海气耦合系统的角度出发,使用SVD方法研究中低纬海气相互作用的耦合变化。结果表明,中低纬海气相互作用是一个有机的耦合整体,其变化不管从年际还是年代际上都存在耦合相关性,这一点给我们提出了一个新的研究全球范围海气耦合变化的思路。提取的海气耦合基本模态的正、负异常年份的海温和风场异常合成分析结果显示,当赤道东太平洋的海水偏暖时,热带印度洋和热带大西洋的海水也偏暖,热带西太平洋直至中纬度太平洋的海温总体偏冷。就印度洋而言非洲大陆以南30~50 °S的大片海区存在明显的海温负异常。北美洲大陆的东岸30 °N以北和南美洲大陆的东岸30 °S以南的海区都为明显的海温负异常。当赤道东太平洋的海水偏冷时各大海区的海温分布情况反之。 相似文献
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It has long been known that incipient tropical cyclones (TCs) always occur in
synoptic-scale disturbances or tropical cyclogenesis precursors, and the disturbances can
intensify only within a limited area during tropical cyclogenesis. An observational analysis
of five tropical cyclogenesis events over the western North Pacific during 11 August to 10
September 2004 is conducted to demonstrate the role of synoptic-scale disturbances in
establishing a limited area of low-deformation vorticity for tropical cyclogenesis.
The analysis of the five tropical cyclogenesis events shows that synoptic-scale tropical
cyclogenesis precursors provide a region of low-deformation vorticity, which is measured with
large positive values of the Okubo-Weiss (OW) parameter. The OW concentrated areas are within
the tropical cyclogenesis precursors with a radius of about 400-500 km and can be found as
early as 72 hours prior to the formation of the tropical depression. When the TCs reached the
tropical storm intensity, the concentrated OW is confined to an area of 200-300 radius and the
storm centers are coincident with the centers of the maximum OW. This study indicates that the
tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the low-deformation 18-72 hours prior to the formation of
tropical depressions, suggesting the importance of low-deformation vorticity in pre-existent
synoptic-scale disturbances. Although the Rossby radius of deformation is reduced in TC
genesis precedes, the reduction does not sufficiently make effective conversion of convective
heating into kinetic energy within the low-deformation area. Further analysis indicates that
the initial development of four of the five disturbances is coupled with the counterclockwise
circulation of the mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) wave. 相似文献
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