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1.
正针对走滑断层震间变形,合理的GPS站点布设可准确反映断层形变状态。稀疏的站点不能完整的监测震间形变信息,密集的站点虽可以较好地监测震间形变信息,但意味着财力精力的巨大消耗,因此,合理的站点布设可以用最少的站点达到最优监测的目的。站点布设主要考虑远场的有效布设距离,以及站点布设的最小间隔。远场的有效布设距离与站点的布设间隔是影响监测结果的重要因素。其中远场布设距离利用断层变形宽度得到远场 相似文献
2.
1973年2月在鲜水河断裂带炉霍段发生了M7.6地震破裂.自那以来,先后在炉霍县虾拉沱布设了若干横跨该地震断层(1973年破裂带)的地壳形变观测系统,包括断层近场的短基线、短水准、蠕变仪、人工构筑物等,以及断层近-远场的GPS观测站.利用这些观测系统的长期观测资料,本文分析了鲜水河断裂带炉霍段的震后滑动/变形及其时、空变化特征,并建立起解释这些特征的动力学模式.研究表明:(1)1973年地震后的头5年,地震断层在虾拉沱场地表现为开放性质,近场的断层震后滑动以无震左旋蠕滑为主,速率达到10.27 mm/a,且伴有微量的拉张性蠕动作用;1979年以来,左旋蠕滑速率由5.3 mm/a逐渐减小到2.27 mm/a,减小的过程呈对数函数型,反映此阶段断层面已逐渐重新耦合、正朝闭锁的方向发展,并伴有部分应变积累.(2)1999年以来,地震断层两侧远场的相对左旋位移/变形速率为10 mm/a,远大于同时期断层近场(跨距40~144 m)的左旋蠕滑速率0.66~2.52 mm/a;远-近场位移/形变速率的显著变化发生在地震断层两侧各宽约30 km的范围,显示出这是与大地震应力应变积累-释放相关的断裂带宽度.(3)结合动力学背景与深部构造信息,本文对这里断层的震后位移/变形及其时、空变化的机理进行初步解释,要点是:震后约5年之后,由于逐渐增大的断层滑动/摩擦阻抗,上地壳脆性层中的断层面由震后初期的开放性质逐渐转向重新耦合、并朝闭锁的方向发展,但其两侧地块深部持续的延性相对运动拖拽着浅部脆性层发生相应的弹性位移/变形.(4)可估计再经历15~25年,研究断裂段将完全"闭锁",即进入积累下一次大地震应力应变的震间闭锁阶段. 相似文献
3.
2004年苏门答腊大地震后,不同作者根据地震波和/或GPS观测,提出了不同的断层错动模型.在利用同震位移观测资料反演断层滑动模型时,由于使用半无限空间均匀介质模型或半无限空间分层介质模型,一般只能利用近场位移GPS观测约束,无法利用远场资料,这些模型有时差别颇大,如何区别这些模型的优劣是一个仍尚未解决的问题.本文采用等效体力有限元方法,在考虑地球球形和分层的条件下,对四个不同作者提供的2004年苏门答腊地震的断层滑动模型计算全球同震位移.由于采用了球形模型,所以不仅可以把四个模型的近场位移计算结果与GPS数据进行对比,而且可以把远场位移计算结果与GPS数据进行对比.我们发现,垂直位移对断层滑动模型的依赖性小于水平位移.四个模型计算的近场位移与GPS位移符合程度均较好,但是四个模型计算的远场位移与GPS位移符合情况有很大不同,其中Chlieh等（2007）模型在近场与远场符合程度均很好,是四个模型中最好的.另外还探讨了断层反演数据资料、断层几何模型以及地球模型对计算结果的影响.对于特大地震,全球同震位移观测与计算值吻合程度的好坏是衡量断层滑动模型的合理性的一个重要依据. 相似文献
4.
断裂带气体地球化学特征与形变特征之间的相关关系是建立具有物理预报思路断层气流动观测网络布设的重要课题。选择有大量温泉出露点且形变较剧烈的西秦岭北缘断裂带为研究对象,对跨断层形变测量场地进行断层土壤气剖面重合布设及现场测量,重点研究断层气分段性特征与断层形变、地震活动性特征耦合关系,探讨利用多种方法开展断裂带强震危险性分析的可能性。结果表明:断裂带土壤气地球化学特征和断层水准形变特征的分布具有良好相关关系,二者对比结果同时显示出西秦岭北缘断裂带中东段——武山段断层活动性相对活跃,渭源—漳县段次之,天水段断层相对闭锁的特征;且武山和甘谷走滑拉分区因流体活动的影响以中小地震活动为主,天水段和漳县段西部及与武山段交汇的盘古川地区,流体活动较弱,应变速率较小,存在孕育强震的可能。 相似文献
5.
《地球物理学报》2021,64(7)
鲜水河断裂带是位于青藏高原东侧的大型走滑断裂,地震活动性高,其炉霍—道孚段是少数观测到蠕滑现象的段落之一,但目前尚缺乏高分辨率大地测量数据的约束研究.本文综合利用InSAR和GPS观测数据研究炉霍—道孚段的运动特征,提出一种适用于研究震间形变的InSAR和GPS数据融合方法,将InSAR速度场和GPS插值速度场转换至平行断层方向,利用抽样统计方法去除GPS参考框架影响,在数据融合过程中,注重保留远场构造运动特征和近场高分辨率形变信息.建立包括浅层蠕滑、中间闭锁单元和深部滑动的断层运动模型,以融合的形变速度场为约束,利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法反演炉霍—道孚段断层滑动速率、浅层蠕滑特征和闭锁状态.InSAR速度场剖面分析结果表明:炉霍—道孚段地表蠕滑特征明显,沿走向方向存在差异,炉霍段蠕滑速率明显低于道孚段,表现出从北西至南东速率逐渐增大、减小、再次增大的变化特征,断层左旋蠕滑速率在1.0～5.2 mm·a~(-1)之间;断层运动模型反演结果表明,炉霍—道孚段蠕滑深度为～9.8 km,浅层蠕滑速率为3.27～4.18 mm·a~(-1),断层深部滑动速率为8.12～9.30 mm·a~(-1).炉霍段地震复发周期为370～410年,闭锁层厚度～1 km,地震危险性较低.道孚段地震复发周期为59～65年,存在厚度～7.5 km的闭锁区,可积累足够的应变,浅层蠕滑释放的能量为～1.32×10~(16) Nm·a~(-1),占构造运动加载积累能量的23%～38%,1981年道孚6.9级地震以来,闭锁区近40年积累的地震矩达到3.62×10~(17)至7.88×10~(17) Nm,相当于一次M_W5.6～M_W5.9地震的能量,其地震危险性值得关注. 相似文献
6.
为了解决我国地震地下流体流动监测网络布设中目前存在的一些问题,以“坚固体孕震模式”为理论基础,以西秦岭北缘断裂带为研究对象,通过高密度地下流体背景值探测,结合地壳垂直形变特征以及地震活动性特征,寻找区域活动断裂带流体与形变以及地震活动的耦合段及断层气响应的灵敏点,综合判断断裂带活动分段性。断层形变、地震活动与地下流体活动有着良好的对应性与耦合关系,震源区均表现为“断层闭锁区”特性,发震地点都显示出一种相对平静的状态。基于以上研究,形成从活动断裂带—“坚固体”闭锁段—近震区前兆场地的追踪思路,规划具有一定物理预报思想的标准化断层气流动观测方案,并建立研究区域观测网络的雏形。这对今后全国地震重点危险区流体流动监测台网布设提供技术思路,并为我国地震预报、震情跟踪及防震减灾工作提供重要依据。 相似文献
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《地球物理学进展》2016,(2)
地震位错理论是解释地震形变,并进行反演估算地震破裂模型的理论基础.当前的地震位错理论基于地球模型主要分为:均匀半无限模型、层状半无限模型、均质球形模型和层状球形模型.本文利用基于不同地球模型的位错理论,针对不同深度的地震,分析了同震水平、垂直形变的分布特征,讨论了导致同震形变差异的主要因素,即地球层状结构和曲率对同震形变结果产生的影响,以此探讨基于不同地球模型的位错理论的适用性.通过对比均匀半无限和层状半无限模型、均质球形和层状球形模型下的同震形变结果,发现形变量在近场的差异要大于在远场的差异,即地球层状结构在近场有较大的影响,其中对最大水平形变的影响可达到37%;通过对比均匀半无限和均质球形模型、层状半无限和层状球形模型下的同震形变结果,当震源深度较深时,形变量在远场的差异大于在近场的差异,即地球曲率在远场的影响大于在近场的影响,并且其明显小于地球的层状结构的影响. 相似文献
8.
通过对比分析1976年唐山7.8级和2008年汶川8.0级地震前后的区域水平和垂直形变场及跨断层形变的时空特征,归纳总结了与大地震孕育物理过程相关联的地壳形变共性特征.主要认识如下:(1)在中国大陆复杂的构造孕震环境下区域地壳形变场充分表现出非稳定态的起伏消长和复杂变化,在强震前孕震区地壳形变经历先增强后弱化的动态特征,剧烈形变局部化可能出现在震源区边缘附近;(2)震源区在震前数年主要表现为弱变形状态,可能是孕震晚期发震断层强闭锁、断层近场应力应变积累趋于极限的表现;(3)两次大地震前发震断层区域形变均显著偏离长期构造应变积累的变形方式,反映在大陆内部小尺度多块体的复杂构造孕震环境下局部应力应变场更容易出现扰动,且小块体边界临近发震的断层响应更为显著;(4)震源区边缘或外围可能出现显著的断层形变异常,而震源区内部由于发震断层处于强闭锁状态而不易观测到断层形变异常. 相似文献
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利用1999-2007和2009-2011年中国大陆GPS水平速度场数据, 采用DEFNODE(反演计算弹性岩石圈块体旋转、 应变和块体边界断层闭锁或同震滑动的Fortran程序)负位错反演程序估算了芦山地震前龙门山断裂带的三维闭锁程度, 并结合剖面结果分析了断层深浅部变形特征. GPS反演结果表明, 1999-2007年, 龙门山断裂中北段(闭锁比例为0.99)处于强闭锁(本文将闭锁比例大于0.97的称为强闭锁)状态; 龙门山断裂南段地表以下深度16 km内为强闭锁, 深度16-21 km处闭锁比例降低为0.62, 深度21-24 km处整条断裂逐渐转变为蠕滑状态. 2009-2011年, 即汶川地震后, 龙门山断裂中北段处于震后蠕滑状态; 龙门山断裂南段深度16-21 km处闭锁比例降低为0.45, 其它位置闭锁程度保持不变. GPS剖面结果显示, 2009-2011年, 即汶川地震后, 龙门山断裂中北段为逆冲兼右旋走滑运动; 而南段断层不能自由滑动、 变形宽度较大. 综合分析认为, 汶川地震时, 龙门山断裂南段并没有发生破裂, 一直处于较强的闭锁状态, 汶川地震的发生又加速了芦山地震的孕育进程; 由于龙门山断裂带南段的闭锁深度较中北段浅, 因此芦山地震较汶川地震强度低、 震级小、 破裂范围窄. 相似文献
10.
利用1999—2007年、 2009—2015年和2015—2017年即2016年1月21日门源MS6.4地震前后的GPS水平运动资料, 以及震区周边200 km半径范围内跨断层流动短水准观测数据, 借助GPS视应变场计算、 冷龙岭断裂剖面的负位错反演, 以及跨断层形变强度新指标的提炼, 综合分析此次强震前相关断裂的中—长期闭锁背景以及断裂活动的中—短期动态演变过程。 结果显示: ① 2009—2015年相对1999—2007年, 祁连山构造区中东部GPS站点间差异运动和挤压变化增强; 跨断层短水准观测也显示震前2年左右时间内相似的断裂活动或形变应变加速特征。 ② 分层非均匀负位错反演揭示与地震相关的冷龙岭等断裂1999—2007年即震前十数年长期闭锁, 2009—2015年即震前6年半上—中层即地表以下0～15.6 km深度闭锁程度明显增大。 ③震区周边半径200 km内跨断层形变强度新指标显示出震前半年内逆断稍占优势的变幅加剧异常, 反映中短期前兆。 相似文献
11.
DEFORMATION CHARACTERISTICS AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS INVERSION OF HAIYUAN FAULT ZONE BASED ON TIME SERIES INSAR 
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下载免费PDF全文 Located at the bend of the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Haiyuan fault zone is a boundary fault of the stable Alashan block, the stable Ordos block and the active Tibet block, and is the most significant fault zone for the tectonic deformation and strong earthquake activity. In 1920, a M8.5 earthquake occurred in the eastern segment of the fault, causing a surface rupture zone of about 240km. After that, the segment has been in a state of calmness in seismic activity, and no destructive earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above have occurred. Determining the current activity of the Haiyuan fault zone is very important and necessary for the analysis and assessment of its future seismic hazard.
To study activity of the Haiyuan fault zone, the degree of fault coupling and the future seismic hazard, domestic and foreign scholars have carried out a lot of research using geology methods and GPS geodetic techniques, but these methods have certain limitations. The geology method is a traditional classical method of fault activity research, but dislocation measurement can only be performed on a local good fault outcrop. There are a limited number of field measurement points and the observation results are not equally limited depending on the sampling location and sampling method. The distribution of GPS stations is sparse, especially in the near-fault area, there is almost no GPS data. Therefore, the spatial resolution of the deformation field features obtained by GPS is low, and there are certain limitations in the kinematic parameter inversion using this method.
In this study, we obtain the average InSAR line-of-sight deformation field from the Maomaoshan section to the mid-1920s earthquake rupture segment of the Haiyuan earthquake in the period from 2003 to 2010 based on the PSInSAR technique. The results show that there are obvious differences between the slip rates of the two walls of the fault in the north and the south, which are consistent with the motion characteristics of left-lateral strike-slip in the Haiyuan fault zone. Through the analysis of the high-density cross-fault deformation rate profile of the Laohushan segment, it is determined that the creep length is about 19km. Based on the two-dimensional arctangent model, the fault depth and deep slip rate of different locations in the Haiyuan fault zone are obtained. The results show that the slip rate and the locking depth of the LHS segment change significantly from west to east, and the slip rate decreases from west to east, decreasing from 7.6mm/a in the west to 4.5mm/a in the easternmost. The western part of the LHS segment and the middle part are in a locked state. The western part has a locking depth of 4.2~4.4km, and the middle part has a deeper locking depth of 6.9km, while the eastern part is less than 1km, that is, the shallow surface is creeping, and the creep rate is 4.5~4.8mm/a. On the whole, the 1920 earthquake's rupture segment of the Haiyuan fault zone is in a locked state, and both the slip rate and the locking depth are gradually increased from west to east. The slip rate is increased from 3.2mm/a in the western segment to 5.4mm/a in the eastern segment, and the locking depth is increased from 4.8km in the western segment to 7.5km in the eastern segment. The results of this study refine the understanding of the slip rate and the locking depth of the different segments of the Haiyuan fault zone, and provide reference information for the investigation of the strain accumulation state and regional seismic hazard assessment of different sections of the fault zone. 相似文献
12.
利用1999—2007期GPS水平速度场数据,采用Defnode负位错反演程序估算了龙门山断裂在汶川地震前的闭锁程度和滑动亏损分布,结合龙门山断裂带附近地表水平应变率场结果,综合分析了震前地壳变形特征.反演结果表明,震前龙门山断裂中北段处于完全闭锁状态,闭锁深度达到21 km(闭锁比例0.99)左右,垂直断层方向的挤压滑动亏损速率约为2.2 mm/a,平行断层方向的右旋滑动亏损速率约为4.6 mm/a.龙门山断裂南段只有地表以下12 km闭锁程度较高(闭锁比例0.99),垂直断层方向滑动亏损速率约为1.4 mm/a,平行断层方向滑动亏损速率约为4.6 mm/a;在12~16 km处闭锁比例约为0.83,垂直断层方向滑动亏损速率约为1.2 mm/a,平行断层方向滑动亏损速率约为3.8 mm/a;在16~21 km处闭锁比例约为0.75,垂直断层方向滑动亏损速率约为1.1 mm/a,平行断层方向滑动亏损速率约为3.5 mm/a.在21~24 km处整条断裂均逐步转变为蠕滑.上述反演结果与区域应变计算获得的龙门山断裂带中北段整体应变积累速率较低、南段应变积累速率较高相一致,均表明中北段闭锁程度高、南段闭锁程度稍低,该特征可以较好地解释汶川地震时从震中向北东向单向破裂现象. 相似文献
13.
《地震科学（英文版）》2015,(Z1)
The Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault,an active tectonic feature at the Tibetan Plateau's northeastern boundary,was ruptured by two MS earthquakes(1920 and 1927)bracketing an unbroken section(the Tianzhu seismic gap).A high seismic hazard is expected along the gap.To monitor deformation characteristics and do a seismic risk assessment,we made measurements at two newly built campaign-mode Global Positioning System(GPS) stations and 13 pre-existing stations in 2013 and 2014.Adding existing data from 1999 to 2014,we derived a new velocity field.Based on the horizontal velocity,we used three block models to invert the deformation of four crustal blocks.The results suggest non-uniform deformation in the interior of the Lanzhou block,the Ordos block and the Alaxan block,but uniform deformation in the Qilian block.Fault slip rates derived from block models show a decreasing trend from west to east,(2.0-3.2 mm/a on the Haiyuan fault to 0.9-1.5 mm/a on the Liupanshan fault).The Haiyuan fault evidences sinistral striking-slip movement,while the Liupanshan fault is primarily thrusting due to transformation of the displacement between the strike-slip and crustal shortening.The locking depth of each segment along the Haiyuan fault obtained by fitting the fault parallel velocities varies drastically from west to east(21.8-7.1 km).The moment accumulation rate,calculated using the slip rate and locking depth,is positively correlated with the locking depth.Given the paucity of large seismic events during the previous millennium,the Tuolaishan segment and the Maomaoshan segment have higher likelihood of nucleation for a future event. 相似文献
14.
为了研究与总结2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震前GPS与跨断层资料反映的龙门山断裂带及其周边地区的运动、构造变形、应变积累演化过程,以及汶川地震临震阶段可能的物理机制,本文综合1999~2007期GPS速度场、1999~2008年大尺度GPS基线时间序列、1985~2008年跨断层短水准等资料进行了相关分析与讨论。结果表明:(1)GPS速度剖面结果显示,宽达500km的川西高原在震前有明显的连续变形,而四川盆地一侧和跨龙门山断裂带基本没有变形趋势,表明震前川西高原在持续不断地为已经处于闭锁状态的龙门山断裂带提供能量积累。(2)GPS应变率结果显示,震前龙门山断裂带中北段的NW侧EW向挤压变形明显,变形幅度从远离断裂带较大到靠近断裂带逐渐减小,而断裂带变形微弱;龙门山断裂带西南段周边形成了显著的EW向挤压应变集中区,应变积累速率明显大于中北段。(3)断层闭锁程度反演结果显示,除了汶川地震的震源位置闭锁相对较弱,且西南段有大概20km宽度断层在12~22.5km深度为蠕滑状态以外,震前整条龙门山断裂基本处于强闭锁状态。(4)大尺度GPS基线结果显示,跨南北地震带区域的NE向基线从2005年开始普遍出现压缩转折,反映NE向地壳缩短的相对运动增强。(5)跨断层短水准场地结果显示,震前年均垂直变化速率和形变累积率很低,表明断层近场垂向活动很弱、闭锁较强。通过以上分析认为,在相对小尺度的地壳变形中,震前龙门山断裂带深浅部均处于强闭锁状态,断裂带水平与垂直变形都很微弱,这可能经历了一个缓慢的过程,而且越是临近地震的发生,微弱变形的范围可能越大;在相对大尺度的地壳变形中,震前龙门山断裂带西侧的巴颜喀拉块体东部地区经历了地壳缓慢且持续的缩短挤压变形,为龙门山断裂带应变积累持续提供了动力支持。 相似文献
15.
Based on GPS velocity during 1999-2007, GPS baseline time series on large scale during 1999-2008 and cross-fault leveling data during 1985-2008, the paper makes some analysis and discussion to study and summarize the movement, tectonic deformation and strain accumulation evolution characteristics of the Longmenshan fault and the surrounding area before the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, as well as the possible physical mechanism late in the seismic cycle of the Wenchuan earthquake. Multiple results indicate that:GPS velocity profiles show that obvious continuous deformation across the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before the earthquake was distributed across a zone at least 500km wide, while there was little deformation in Sichuan Basin and Longmenshan fault zone, which means that the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau provides energy accumulation for locked Longmenshan fault zone continuously. GPS strain rates show that the east-west compression deformation was larger in the northwest of the mid-northern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, and deformation amplitude decreased gradually from far field to near fault zone, and there was little deformation in fault zone. The east-west compression deformation was significant surrounding the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, and strain accumulation rate was larger than that of mid-northern segment. Fault locking indicates nearly whole Longmenshan fault was locked before the earthquake except the source of the earthquake which was weakly locked, and a 20km width patch in southwestern segment between 12km to 22.5km depth was in creeping state. GPS baseline time series in northeast direction on large scale became compressive generally from 2005 in the North-South Seismic Belt, which reflects that relative compression deformation enhances. The cross-fault leveling data show that annual vertical change rate and deformation trend accumulation rate in the Longmenshan fault zone were little, which indicates that vertical activity near the fault was very weak and the fault was tightly locked. According to analyses of GPS and cross-fault leveling data before the Wenchuan earthquake, we consider that the Longmenshan fault is tightly locked from the surface to the deep, and the horizontal and vertical deformation are weak surrounding the fault in relatively small-scale crustal deformation. The process of weak deformation may be slow, and weak deformation area may be larger when large earthquake is coming. Continuous and slow compression deformation across eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before the earthquake provides dynamic support for strain accumulation in the Longmenshan fault zone in relative large-scale crustal deformation. 相似文献
16.
为研究2021年甘肃阿克塞5.5级地震前震中周边的地壳变形运动特征,根据CMONOC提供的GPS观测资料,通过GPS速度场、面应变率场和站间基线时间序列分析,探讨了震前的地壳变形特征。研究结果表明,震中处于发震断层西南侧远场速度大、近场速度小且断裂两侧速度场方向明显不同的位置,同时位于与发震构造类型一致的面应变率场的压缩高值区,即挤压应变累积区。跨发震断裂的基线长度在震前3年多时间出现的转折变化,表明震前发震断裂两侧左旋走滑速率明显减缓;而断裂两侧的挤压速率有所加快则反映出本次地震前震中区域存在一定程度的应变能积累。研究结果有助于认识该地震的孕震过程,并可为相似构造类型区域的强震预测提供参考依据。 相似文献
17.
位于华北板块和扬子板块之间的陕西中南部由渭河盆地、秦岭造山带和汉中盆地构成,其新构造运动主要形式为山脉隆升、盆地断陷,因此以重复水准测量为手段的地壳垂直运动研究尤为重要.基于研究区1970年以来的多期精密水准测量数据,用GPS垂直运动速率约束的动态平差方法获得了区域垂直运动速度场.以此为基础,用倾滑位错模型、网格搜索方法反演了研究区主要断层倾滑速率和闭锁深度,结果显示:秦岭北缘断裂倾滑速率为2.25～4.53 mm·a~(-1),闭锁深度为7.7～10.0 km;华山山前断裂倾滑速率为2.35～2.71 mm·a~(-1);闭锁深度为2.8～5.0 km,反映了该断裂在华县大地震之后,可能还没有完全闭锁,发生大震的应变能积累条件不足;渭河盆地北缘断裂的倾滑动速率为2.0～2.5 mm·a~(-1),闭锁深度仅为3.0 km左右,说明该断裂以蠕滑运动为主;略阳断裂倾滑速率为3.02 mm·a~(-1),闭锁深度6.7 km,是陕南较活动的断裂. 相似文献
18.
Eric O. Lindsey Valerie J. Sahakian Yuri Fialko Yehuda Bock Sylvain Barbot Thomas K. Rockwell 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(11):2937-2954
We investigate interseismic deformation across the San Jacinto fault at Anza, California where previous geodetic observations have indicated an anomalously high shear strain rate. We present an updated set of secular velocities from GPS and InSAR observations that reveal a 2–3 km wide shear zone deforming at a rate that exceeds the background strain rate by more than a factor of two. GPS occupations of an alignment array installed in 1990 across the fault trace at Anza allow us to rule out shallow creep as a possible contributor to the observed strain rate. Using a dislocation model in a heterogeneous elastic half space, we show that a reduction in shear modulus within the fault zone by a factor of 1.2–1.6 as imaged tomographically by Allam and Ben-Zion (Geophys J Int 190:1181–1196, 2012) can explain about 50 % of the observed anomalous strain rate. However, the best-fitting locking depth in this case (10.4 ± 1.3 km) is significantly less than the local depth extent of seismicity (14–18 km). We show that a deep fault zone with a shear modulus reduction of at least a factor of 2.4 would be required to explain fully the geodetic strain rate, assuming the locking depth is 15 km. Two alternative possibilities include fault creep at a substantial fraction of the long-term slip rate within the region of deep microseismicity, or a reduced yield strength within the upper fault zone leading to distributed plastic failure during the interseismic period. 相似文献