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1.
Matthew C. Larsen 《自然地理学》2013,34(6):494-521
During the period from 1990 to 1997, annual rainfall accumulation averaged 87% of normal at the 12 stations with the longest period of record in Puerto Rico, a Caribbean island with a 1999 population of 3.8 million. Streamflow in rivers supplying the La Plata and Loíza reservoirs, the principal water supply of the San Juan metropolitan area, was at or below the 10th flow percentile for 27% to 50% of the time between December 1993 and May 1996. Diminished reservoir levels in 1994 and 1995 affected more than 1 million people in the San Juan metropolitan area. Water rationing was implemented during this period and significant agricultural losses, valued at $165 million, were recorded in 1994. The public endured a year of mandatory water rationing in which sections of the city had their water-distribution networks shut off for 24 to 36 hours on alternate days. During the winter and spring of 1997–1998, water was rationed to more than 200,000 people in northwestern Puerto Rico because water level in the Guajataca reservoir was well below normal for two years because of rainfall deficits. The drought period of 1993–1996 was comparable in magnitude to a drought in 1966–1968, but water rationing was more severe during the 1993–1996 period, indicating that water management issues such as demand, storage capacity, water production and losses, and per capita consumption are increasingly important as population and development in Puerto Rico expand. [Key words: drought, streamflow, water resources, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, rainfall, water supply.] 相似文献
2.
中国干旱灾害评估与空间特征分析(英文) 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Based on the monthly precipitation data for the period 1960-2008 from 616 rainfall stations and the phenology data of main grain crops,the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in China were investigated at a 10 km×10 km grid-cell scale using a GIS-based drought hazard assessment model,which was constructed by using 3-month Standard Pre-cipitation Index (SPI).Drought-prone areas and heavy drought centers were also identified in this study.The spatial distribution of drought hazard in China shows apparent east-west dif-ference,with the eastern part of China being far more hazardous than the western part.High hazard areas are common in the eastern and central parts of Inner Mongolian Plateau,the central part of Northeast China Plain,the northern part of Heilongjiang,the southeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the central and southern parts of Loess Plateau,the southern part of North China Plain,the northern and southern parts of Yangtze River Plain,and Yun-nan-Guizhou Plateau.Furthermore,obvious differences in drought hazard were found both within and between different agricultural zonings. 相似文献
3.
青藏高原植被覆盖变化与降水关系 总被引：15，自引：6，他引：9
The temporal and spatial changes of NDVI on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the relationship between NDVI and precipitation, were discussed in this paper, by using 8-km resolution multi-temporal NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1982 to 1999. Monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall were used to analyze the seasonal changes, and annual maximum NDVI, annual effective precipitation and growing season precipitation (from April to August) were used to discuss the interannual changes. The dynamic change of NDVI and the corre- lation coefficients between NDVI and rainfall were computed for each pixel. The results are as follows: (1) The NDVI reached the peak in growing season (from July to September) on the Tibetan Plateau. In the northern and western parts of the plateau, the growing season was very short (about two or three months); but in the southern, vegetation grew almost all the year round. The correlation of monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall varied in different areas. It was weak in the western, northern and southern parts, but strong in the central and eastern parts. (2) The spatial distribution of NDVI interannual dynamic change was different too. The increase areas were mainly distributed in southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe zone, western part of western Sichuan-eastern Tibet montane coniferous forest zone, western part of northern slopes of Kunlun montane desert zone and southeastern part of southern slopes of Himalaya montane evergreen broad-leaved forest zone; the decrease areas were mainly distributed in the Qaidam montane desert zone, the western and northern parts of eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe zone, southern Qinghai high cold meadow steppe zone and Ngari montane desert-steppe and desert zone. The spatial distribution of correlation coeffi- cient between annual effective rainfall and annual maximum NDVI was similar to the growing season rainfall and annual maximum NDVI, and there was good relationship between NDVI and rainfall in the meadow and grassland with medium vegetation cover, and the effect of rainfall on vegetation was small in the forest and desert area. 相似文献
4.
The temporal and spatial changes of NDVI on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the relationship between NDVI and precipitation, were discussed in this paper, by using 8-km resolution multi-temporal NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1982 to 1999. Monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall were used to analyze the seasonal changes, and annual maximum NDVI, annual effective precipitation and growing season precipitation (from April to August) were used to discuss the interannual changes. The dynamic change of NDVI and the corre-lation coefficients between NDVI and rainfall were computed for each pixel. The results are as follows: (1) The NDVI reached the peak in growing season (from July to September) on the Tibetan Plateau. In the northern and western parts of the plateau, the growing season was very short (about two or three months); but in the southern, vegetation grew almost all the year round. The correlation of monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall varied in different areas. It was weak in the western, northern and southern parts, but strong in the central and eastern parts. (2) The spatial distribution of NDVI interannual dynamic change was different too. The increase areas were mainly distributed in southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe zone, western part of western Sichuan-eastern Tibet montane coniferous forest zone, western part of northern slopes of Kunlun montane desert zone and southeastern part of southern slopes of Himalaya montane evergreen broad-leaved forest zone; the decrease areas were mainly distributed in the Qaidam montane desert zone, the western and northern parts of eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe zone, southern Qinghai high cold meadow steppe zone and Ngari montane desert-steppe and desert zone. The spatial distribution of correlation coeffi-cient between annual effective rainfall and annual maximum NDVI was similar to the growing season rainfall and annual maximum NDVI, and there was good relationship between NDVI and rainfall in the meadow and grassland with medium vegetation cover, and the effect of rainfall on vegetation was small in the forest and desert area. 相似文献
5.
Werner Nel Alexia Hauptfleisch Paul D. Sumner Ravindra Boojhawon Soonil D. D. V. Rughooputh Kumar R. Dhurmea 《自然地理学》2016,37(3-4):264-275
Mauritius is a volcanic island with a raised interior where extreme rainfall events dominate rainfall erosivity. Intra-event characteristics of the 120 highest erosive events at six selected locations between 2004 and 2008 were analyzed to provide the first detailed intra-storm data for a tropical island environment. On Mauritius, spatial variation is evident in the characteristics of extreme erosive rainfall recorded at the stations, with a noticeable increase in rainfall depth, duration, kinetic energy, and erosivity of extreme events with altitude. Extreme events in the raised interior (central plateau) show high variability of peak intensity over time as well as a higher percentage of events in which the greatest intensity occurs in the latter part of the event. Intra-event distribution of rainfall in the interior of the island shows that rainfall there has a higher potential to exceed infiltration rates as well as the ability to generate high peak runoff rates and cause substantial soil loss. The study suggests that even though within-event rainfall characteristics are complex, they have implications for soil erosion risk, and that, in tropical island environments, the within-storm distribution of rainfall should be incorporated in soil-loss modeling. 相似文献
6.
The forests of southeastern Africa are vulnerable to damage imposed by tropical cyclones operating in the South Indian Ocean. We undertook a geographical analysis to determine the relative vulnerability of forests given tropical cyclones recorded during the 1959–2008 storm seasons. From this analysis, eastern coastal forests of Madagascar seem to be the most vulnerable, although return intervals for severe storms vary along the eastern coast, and are shorter (about 10 years) through the central portion of the country. Therefore, the central lowland to upper montane rainforests on the eastern coast seem to be more vulnerable to damage from tropical cyclones than others in the area. While not as extensive, western coastal forests of Madagascar are also as vulnerable in part due to the recurvature of storms in the Mozambique Channel. Though the coastal forests of Mozambique are all nearly equal in terms of vulnerability, the return interval for severe storms to this area is highly variable. The inland Miombo forests of southeast Africa are less vulnerable to damage from tropical cyclones; however, portions of western Mozambique and Zimbabwe have experienced strong tropical storms in the last 50 years. A number of caveats and limitations associated with the data and analyses are noted. Given the broad scale of the study, the relative vulnerability and the return intervals for severe storms should be considered general representations of these phenomena for the southeastern African coast and the island of Madagascar. 相似文献
7.
基于小波变换的陕西夏季降水量变化特征研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
利用陕西省18个站1959—2004年的逐月降水量资料和小波变换方法,对陕西46 a来的降水量的气候特征及夏季降水量变化特征进行了研究,并对未来夏季降水量变化趋势进行了估计。结果表明：①陕西三个不同气候带的夏季降水量主要集中在7—9月,陕北、关中和陕南7—9月的降水量值分别占全年总量的60.9％、51.2％和51.5％。②三个气候带中,关中和陕南的夏季降水量变化特征较为接近,都有12 a、6 a和2 a左右的主要时间尺度;陕北高原则明显的不同,主要是21.1 a和2.3 a的时间尺度。③根据三个地区夏季降水量变化的主要时间尺度,估计关中地区近期的夏季降水量可能偏多,陕南大致处于正常时期,陕北则是总体偏少的趋势。 相似文献
8.
结合新疆的65个气象观测站日降水数据,采用连续验证统计方法、分类验证统计方法对RFE2.0遥感降水数据在新疆的适用性进行了评估。结果表明：（1）通过连续验证统计分析,新疆地区平均偏差MBE （Mean Bias Error）总体对日降水量高估,均值为0.4 mm,在0.5 mm内的站点超过70%。RFE2.0遥感降水数据与地面观测站的日降水量之间相关系数R的平均值为0.4,表现为较低的相关性。从偏离真实值情况来说,东疆模拟值和观测值最接近。（2）分类验证统计方法对降水事件FBI （Frequency Bias Index）有所高估。按片区来说,降水事件高估的小值区主要在北疆,高估程度低于全疆平均水平。北疆的正确率POD （Probability of Detection）大于南疆、东疆,同时北疆发生空报率FAR （False Alarm Rate）的可能性也小于南疆、东疆。（3）通过实例验证了RFE2.0在北疆、南疆、东疆的可靠性。以上规律可为RFE2.0在新疆的应用提供科学依据。 相似文献
9.
The localized rain rate maxima (RM) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of RM exceeding 25 mm h?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h?1 RM is the 90th percentile of all RM observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of RM. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center. 相似文献
10.
The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
Landslides are common in steep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 people/km2, and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing stress on the natural environment and physical infrastructure. As a result, human populations are more vulnerable to landslide hazards. The Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo study areas range in surface area from 276 to 350 km2 and represent the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that typify Puerto Rico. Maps of recent landslides developed from 1:20,000-scale aerial photographs, in combination with a computerized geographic information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of shallow landslides in these areas. Several types of landslides were documented—rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12° in gradient, are greater than 300 m in elevation, and face the east-northeast, are most prone to landsliding. A set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three study areas was developed and provides a basis for the estimation of the spatial controls on the frequency of landslides in Puerto Rico. This approach is an example of an analysis of the frequency of landslides that is computationally simple, and therefore, may be easily transferable to other settings. 相似文献
11.
夏季东亚地区水汽输送年代际变化特征及其对中国东部降水的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法和1951-2004年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及160个中国地面测站月降水资料,对夏季东亚地区水汽输送的年代际变化特征及其对中国东部降水的影响进行分析.研究结果表明:20世纪70年代中后期至90年代初期,中国东部夏季降水以"南北旱中间涝"分布型为主,90年代初期之后则以"南涝北旱"分布型为主,呈现出显著的年代际变化特征,即20世纪90年代后雨带南移的特征开始明显:夏季整层水汽输送通量主模态的空间结构及其时间系数可以较好地反映出近50年来东亚大陆东部经向水汽输送从1974年起由强变弱的"转折点"特征及其年代际减弱变化趋势:印度大陆和孟加拉湾北部、长江中下游地区、南海以及热带西太平洋地区纬向水汽输送从1973年起由弱变强的"转折点"特征及年代增强变化趋势.揭示了东亚夏季水汽输送年代际分量主模态的时空演变造成中国东部夏季降水从"南北旱中间涝"分布型转向"南涝北旱"分布型,即中国东部夏季雨带呈现出南移年代际变化特征的关键因素之一. 相似文献
12.
中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局变化及其与气候的关系研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于2001~2010年MOD17A3年均NPP数据和气象站点气温、降水资料,利用GIS空间分析技术和数理统计方法研究中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局、动态变化及与气候要素的关系。结果表明,中国东南部植被年均NPP总体上呈现从南到北、由东至西逐渐减少的分布,不同植被类型的NPP存在明显差异,以常绿阔叶林最高,落叶针叶林最低。2001~2010年间,植被NPP整体上略有减少。空间上植被NPP在南部地区明显减少,而在北部地区明显增加。植被NPP与降水和气温的相关性均表现出明显的地域差异。 相似文献
13.
我国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用热带气旋路径资料和灾情资料,综合考虑热带气旋的频数、强度、范围以及持续时间,建立热带气旋潜在影响力指数,分析了1949-2009 年我国热带气旋的潜在影响力的空间格局和年际变化特征,并以0608 号超强台风“桑美”为例分析了该指数与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程雨量的关系。研究结果表明：1949-2009 年间,我国的热带气旋的潜在影响力呈现出弱减少的趋势,这种趋势并不显著,但各阶段性的趋势比较明显;近20 年来,我国海南、广东、广西等华南沿海受热带气旋潜在影响力在下降,而浙江、福建、台湾等东南沿海省份受热带气旋潜在影响力在上升;潜在影响力指数最高的区域主要分布在台湾、海南、广东沿海、福建沿海以及浙江南部沿海等地;TCPI 与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程降水量等有较好的相关性,并都通过了0.01 的显著性检验。 相似文献
14.
柴达木盆地风况及输沙势特征 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
利用柴达木盆地13个气象站的风资料,分析了盆地风况和输沙势的变化特征。结果表明：（1）盆地年平均风速2.0~4.4 m·s-1,自盆地南、北边缘山地到盆地中部逐渐降低。盆地西部主风向为偏西风,风向较集中;东部主风向为偏东风,风向较分散。（2）盆地年平均起沙风速7.0~8.2 m·s-1,起沙风频率5.1%~26.1%,主要发生在冬、春季,风向以WNW和W为主。（3）盆地输沙势34.0~462.3 VU,盆地西北部属于高风能环境,中部及东南部属于低-中风能环境,方向变率0.45~0.91,风况为窄单峰或宽单峰风况,盆地西北部和东南部差异较大,东部德令哈站与其他地区的合成输沙势方向相反。 相似文献
15.
中国西北地区东部短时强降水时空特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于中国西北地区东部136个气象站2001-2011年每6 h地面降水常规观测资料、1 674个自动站2009-2011年逐时降水资料,运用气候统计、线性趋势、归一化、分区域统计以及降水集中度（PCD）和集中期（PCP）分析等方法,研究了西北地区东部短时强降水的时空分布和气候特征。结果表明：该地区短时强降水日数年际变化不大,但区域性的短时强降水过程呈明显增加趋势;短时强降水主要发生在7月上旬至8月下旬,且具有明显的日变化特征;短时强降水总频次的空间分布与地势分布比较一致,高频高值区多位于夏半年环流盛行西南气流的迎风坡附近;在空间上PCD由东南向西北越来越集中,PCP自东向西逐步推迟。 相似文献
16.
This paper investigates the correlations between lake level change, rainfall variability and general atmospheric forcing in
southern Africa. The analysis of fossil diatom assemblages in a sediment sequence from the small, rain-fed Lake Nhaucati,
southern Mozambique, is presented and discussed in relation to regional palaeoclimate data. The accumulation of organic sediments
in Lake Nhaucati began 1,600 years ago when the lake level was rising. Lithology and pollen suggest a low stand at 800 AD,
which correlates with other climate proxies from the summer rainfall region of southern Africa. The diatom assemblage suggests
that lake levels were high between 900 and 1300 AD, with shorter low stands at c.1100 and 1200 AD. The period after 1400 AD
was marked by a slow rate of accumulation and consequently a low temporal resolution. The correlation with other climate proxies
in the summer rainfall region, written sources, and pollen data suggests repeated droughts corresponding to the Little Ice
Age, though the driest periods may have caused complete desiccation of the lake. Higher lake levels are suggested after 1800 AD,
though written sources suggest droughts in the beginning of the twentieth century. The analysis shows a good correlation with
palaeoclimate data from the summer rainfall region and confirms the presence of an anti-phase relationship between the summer
rainfall region of southern Africa and the bi-modal rainfall region of east tropical Africa. It also supports the general
hypothesis that variation in the intensity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone is the main agent modulating rainfall over
southern and eastern Africa on centennial timescales. 相似文献
17.
基于TRMM数据的鄱阳湖流域降雨时空分布特征及其精度评价 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
基于1998-2007 年热带测雨卫星(TRMM) 3B42 V6 降雨数据分析鄱阳湖流域降雨时空分布特征, 并利用40个气象站观测日降雨数据对TRMM数据在不同子流域、不同降雨强度及不同季节里的精度进行了对比分析, 弥补了以往只评价整体精度的不足。结果显示:鄱阳湖流域北部地区修水、饶河子流域较易出现暴雨, 导致雷达信号衰减, 使TRMM对大雨强降雨的探测出现较大偏差;流域内降雨以10~50 mm为主, 其雨量占到总雨量的60%;流域降雨在年内1-3 月中旬为干旱少雨期, 3 月下旬-9 月初为湿润多雨期, 9-12 月再次进入干旱少雨期;而空间分布呈东、西部大, 中部小的格局;同时发现, 在赣南山区TRMM降雨较观测雨量低300~400 mm, 这可能受高程和坡度的影响, 使TRMM对山区降雨的探测精度也出现较大偏差。 相似文献
18.
利用2008—2015年CMORPH卫星与自动观测站的逐时降水量融合产品,分析了陕西地区5~10月降水量、降水频次、降水强度的日变化特征,以及陕西南北降水日变化上的差异。结果表明：（1）降水量和降水频次从南向北明显递减,地形作用下的纬向变化是陕西地区降水最重要的特征,但降水强度呈现出南北高、中间低的分布特征,两个高值中心分别位于陕南南部和陕北的东北部,EOF分析表明陕西南部夜雨特征明显。（2）陕西南部降水量和降水频次、降水强度日变化特征一致,均以夜晚至次日清晨为高值区, 而在中午前后达到最低值。陕西北部降水量、降水频次峰值则主要出现在上午,降水强度峰值出现在傍晚。区域对比分析表明,陕西南部降水量日变化主要来自于降水强度的贡献,而陕西北部日变化以降水频次的贡献为主。（3）陕西降水的南北分界线特征明显,34 °N以南地区降水日变化明显且降水主要集中在夜间。34~37 °N之间的中部地区降水日变化较弱,37 °N以北地区降水的日变化特征和陕西南部相反。（4）除榆林、渭南和商洛东部地区外,其他大部分地方白天的降水量都明显低于夜间的降水量,特别是陕南秦巴山区夜间降水量超过白天的一倍以上。 相似文献
19.
TRMM数据在中国降雨侵蚀力计算中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
长时间序列降雨过程资料的获取一直是降雨侵蚀力计算中的一个难题。尝试利用地面实测站点数据分别对TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)卫星的3B43和3B42数据进行回归建模和订正,并采用订正后的3 h平均降雨强度代替30 min最大降雨强度,同时基于TRMM数据的EI180的降雨侵蚀力算法,计算出了全国南北纬50°范围(TRMM覆盖区)内2013年月、季和年降雨侵蚀力;最后分别计算了省域和区域尺度下的降雨侵蚀力对全国尺度下的结果进行对比验证。结果表明:(1) TRMM降水数据比地面站点观测的降水量略大,但与实测站点数据具有很好的线性回归关系,其季尺度决定系数R2均较高,由此也说明了TRMM数据可以很好地反映全国范围内降雨的季节性变化。(2)利用订正后的TRMM3B42数据计算出研究区内的年均降雨侵蚀力为536.02 MJ·mm·hm-2·h-1·a-1,其降雨侵蚀主要集中在5~8月份。(3) 2013年全国降雨侵蚀变化趋势由东南向西北方向逐渐降低,且沿海省份较内陆省份降雨侵蚀较高。(4)通过对年降雨侵蚀力结果与实测站点降雨量以及订正的TRMM降水数据分析表明,降雨侵蚀力与降水之间存在着紧密的二次非线性关系。(5)通过尺度验证,其中省域尺度验证误差为8.34%,区域尺度误差仅为0.24%,由此说明了TRMM数据在不同尺度下均具有良好的适应性,同时也验证了方法在不同尺度下的有效性。该方法为有效解决土壤侵蚀中降雨强度计算资料缺乏的瓶颈,同时也为降雨侵蚀力的计算提供了一条有效的途径。 相似文献
20.
MA Weidong LIU Fenggui ZHOU Qiang CHEN Qiong ZHANG Cungui LIU Fei LI Yanyan ZHAO Pei 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2021,12(5):600-608
According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed, and a large amount of solid water, such as glaciers and perpetual snow, is transformed into liquid water, which aggravates the risk of flood disasters in the Plateau. Based on the historical flood disaster records of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the flood disasters in the Plateau, and estimated the critical rainfall for the flood disasters combined with precipitation data from the meteorological stations in each basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that most of the flood disaster events in the Plateau are caused by precipitation, and the average annual occurrence of flood disasters is more than 30 cases and their frequency is on the rise. The high frequency areas of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly in the Hehuang Valley and the Hengduan Mountains area; the secondary high frequency areas are located in the valley area of South Tibet and the peripheral area of the Hehuang valley. Finally, we found that the highest critical rainfall value of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in the southern area of the plateau, followed by the eastern and southeastern parts of the plateau, and the lowest values are in the central, western and northern parts of the Plateau. 相似文献