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1.
Abstract

Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario.

Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089.  相似文献   

2.
Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, climate models suggest an increase in rainfall intensities in the northern Hemisphere. Major flood events in the UK during autumn 2000 and central Europe in August 2002, have focussed attention on the dramatic impacts these changes may have on many sectors of society. In the companion paper [Fowler et al., J. Hydrol. (2004) this issue], we suggested that the HadRM3H model may be used with some confidence to estimate extreme rainfall distributions, showing good predictive skill in estimating statistical properties of extreme rainfall during the baseline period, 1961–1990. In this study, we use results from the future integration of HadRM3H (following the IPCC SRES scenario A2 for 2070–2100) to assess possible changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using two methods: regional frequency analysis and individual grid box analysis. Results indicate that for short duration events (1–2 days), event magnitude at a given return period will increase by 10% across the UK. For longer duration events (5–10 days), event magnitudes at given return periods show large increases in Scotland (up to +30%), with greater relative change at higher return periods (25–50 years). In the rest of the UK, there are small increases in the magnitude of more frequent events (up to +10%) but reductions at higher return periods (up to −20%). These results provide information to alter design storm depths to examine climate change impacts on various structures. The uncertainty bounds of the estimated changes and a ‘scaling’ methodology are additionally detailed. This allows the estimation of changes for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, and gives some confidence in the use of these estimates in impact studies.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

There is increasing concern that flood risk will be exacerbated in Antalya, Turkey as a result of global-warming-induced, more frequent and intensive, heavy rainfalls. In this paper, first, trends in extreme rainfall indices in the Antalya region were analysed using daily rainfall data. All stations in the study area showed statistically significant increasing trends for at least one extreme rainfall index. Extreme rainfall datasets for current (1970–1989) and future periods (2080–2099) were then constructed for frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold method. Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall data was performed using generalized Pareto distribution for current and future periods in order to estimate rainfall intensities for various return periods. Rainfall intensities for the future period were found to increase by up to 23% more than the current period. This study contributed to better understanding of climate change effects on extreme rainfalls in Antalya, Turkey.  相似文献   

4.
Nozzle‐type rainfall simulators are commonly used in hydrologic and soil erosion research. Simulated rainfall intensity, originating from the nozzle, increases as the distance between the point of measurement and the source is decreased. Hence, rainfall measured using rain gauges would systematically overestimate the rainfall received at the ground level. A simple model was developed to adjust rainfall measured anywhere under the simulator to plot‐wide average rainfall at the ground level. Nozzle height, plot width, gauge diameter and height, and gauge location are required to compute this adjustment factor. Results from 15 runs at different rain intensities and durations, and with different rain gauge layouts, showed that a simple average of measured rain would overestimate the plot‐wide rain by about 20 per cent. Using the adjustment factor to convert measured rainfall for individual gauges before averaging improved the estimate of plot‐wide rainfall considerably. For the 15 runs considered, overall discrepancy between actual and measured rain is reduced to less than 1 per cent with a standard error of 0·97 mm. This model can be easily tested in the ?eld by comparing rainfall depths of different sized gauges. With the adjustment factor they should all give very similar values. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.  相似文献   

6.
Empirical frequency distributions of multiplicative cascade weights, or breakdown coefficients, at small timescales are analyzed for 5-min precipitation time series from four gauges in Germany. It is shown that histograms of the weights, W, are strongly deformed by the recording precision of rainfall amounts. A randomization procedure is proposed to statistically remove the artifacts due to precision errors in the original series. Evolution of the probability distributions of W from beta-like for large timescales to combined beta-normal distribution with a pronounced peak at W ≈ 0.5 for small timescales is observed. A new 3N-B distribution built from 3 separate normal, N, distributions and one beta, B, distribution is proposed for reproduction of the empirical histograms of W at small timescales. Parameters of the 3N-B distributions are fitted for all gauges and analyzed timescales. Microcanonical cascades models with a generator based on 3N-B distributions are developed and their performance at disaggregating precipitation at 1280-min intervals down to 5-min intervals is evaluated.  相似文献   

7.
The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

A procedure is presented for using the bivariate normal distribution to describe the joint distribution of storm peaks (maximum rainfall intensities) and amounts which are mutually correlated. The Box-Cox transformation method is used to normalize original marginal distributions of storm peaks and amounts regardless of the original forms of these distributions. The transformation parameter is estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The joint cumulative distribution function, the conditional cumulative distribution function, and the associated return periods can be readily obtained based on the bivariate normal distribution. The method is tested and validated using two rainfall data sets from two meteorological stations that are located in different climatic regions of Japan. The theoretical distributions show a good fit to observed ones.  相似文献   

9.
石梁河水库是江苏省最大的人工湖泊.开展水库沉积速率研究,对认识水库环境变化具有重要意义.本文对石梁河水库沉积物岩芯粒度组成特征进行了分析,表明沉积物以黏土质粉砂和粉砂质黏土为主,从底部向上呈明显的变细趋势,并记录了1970年的强降雨事件.采用137Cs同位素测年分析,得到1963年和1986年两个时标.通过石梁河水库的沉积年代序列,推算出平均沉积速率:1963 1970年为10.85 cm/a,1970 1986年为3.81 cm/a,1986 2005年为1.32 cm/a.对比粒度沉积特征和流域降水记录,粗颗粒物质和降雨量的变化趋势基本相同,沉积物粒度组成特点直接反映了沉积时的降水、水动力搬运强度等信息.在河川来水来沙、坝前水位变化和地形等条件下,石梁河水库表现为三角洲淤积,且沉积速率逐渐变缓,符合水库淤积的一般规律.此外,石梁河水库上游建设的众多大型水库,拦截了大量泥沙,也使得沉积速率呈现减小趋势.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.  相似文献   

11.
Maximum rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are commonly applied to determine the design rainfall in water resource projects. Normally, the IDF relationship is derived from recording rain gauges. As the network of non-recording rain gauges (daily rainfall) in Taiwan has a higher density than recording rain gauges, attempts were made in this study to extend the IDF relationship to non-recording rain gauges. Eighteen recording rain gauges and 99 non-recording rain gauges over the Chi-Nan area in Southern Taiwan provide the data sets. The regional IDF formulae were generated for ungauged areas to estimate rainfall intensity for various return periods and rainfall durations larger than or equal to one hour. For rainfall durations less than one hour, a set of adjustment formulae were applied to modify the regional IDF formulae. The method proposed in this study had reasonable application to non-recording rain gauges, which was concluded from the verification of four additional recording rain gauges. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
A rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationship was generated by pooling annual maximum rainfall series from 14 recording rain gauges in southern Taiwan. Dimensionless frequency curves, plotted by the growth curve method, can be well fitted by regression equations for a duration ranging from 10 mins to 24 hours. As the parameters in regression equations have a good statistical relationship with average annual rainfall, a generalized regional IDF formula was then formulated. The formula, based on average annual rainfall as an index, can be easily applied to non-recording rain gauges. This paper further applies the mean value first-order second moment (MFOSM) method to estimate the uncertainty of the proposed regional IDF formula. From a stochastic viewpoint, the generalized regional IDF formula can accurately simulate the IDF relationship developed using frequency analysis (EV1) at individual stations. The method can provide both rainfall intensity and variance isohyetal maps for various rainfall durations and return periods over the study area. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Rainfall products can contain significantly different spatiotemporal estimates, depending on their underlying data and final constructed resolution. Commonly used products, such as rain gauges, rain gauge networks, and weather radar, differ in their information content regarding intensities, spatial variability, and natural climatic variability, therefore producing different estimates. Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the geomorphic changes in landscapes, and current models can simulate timeframes from event level to millions of years and some use rainfall inputs to drive them. However, the impact of different rainfall products on LEM outputs has never been considered. This study uses the STREAP rainfall generator, calibrated using commonly used rainfall observation products, to produce longer rainfall records than the observations to drive the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to examine how differences in rainfall products affect simulated landscapes. The results show that the simulation of changes to basin geomorphology is sensitive to the differences between rainfall products, with these differences expressed linearly in discharges but non-linearly in sediment yields. Furthermore, when applied over a 1500-year period, large differences in the simulated long profiles were observed, with the simulations producing greater sediment yields showing erosion extending further downstream. This suggests that the choice of rainfall product to drive LEMs has a large impact on the final simulated landscapes. The combination of rainfall generator model and LEMs represents a potentially powerful method for assessing the impacts of rainfall product differences on landscapes and their short- and long-term evolution. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

14.
J. Ndiritu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1704-1717
Abstract

Raingauge measurements are commonly used to estimate daily areal rainfall for catchment modelling. The variation of rainfall between the gauges is usually inadequately captured and areal rainfall estimates are therefore very uncertain. A method of quantifying these uncertainties and incorporating them into ensembles of areal rainfall is demonstrated and tested. The uncertainties are imposed as perturbations based on the differences in areal rainfall that result when half of the raingauges are alternately omitted. Also included is a method of: (a) estimating the proportion rainfall that falls on areas where no gauges are located that are consequently computed as having zero rain, and (b) replacing them with plausible non-zero rainfalls. The model is tested using daily rainfall from two South African catchments and is found to exhibit the expected behaviour. One of the two parameters of the model is obtained from the rainfall data, while the other has direct physical interpretation.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Ndiritu, J., 2013. Using data-derived perturbations to incorporate uncertainty in generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfall. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1704–1717.  相似文献   

15.
Regional mean sea level changes in the German Bight are considered. Index time series derived from 15 tide gauge records are analysed. Two different methods for constructing the index time series are used. The first method uses arithmetic means based on all available data for each time step. The second method uses empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods produce rather similar results for the time period 1924–2008. For this period, we estimate that regional mean sea level increased at rates between 1.64 and 1.74 mm/year with a 90% confidence range of 0.28 mm/year in each case. Before 1924, only data from a few tide gauges are available with the longest record in Cuxhaven ranging back till 1843. Data from these tide gauges, in particular from Cuxhaven, thus receive increasingly more weight when earlier years are considered. It is therefore analysed to what extent data from Cuxhaven are representative for the regional sea level changes in the German Bight. While this cannot be clarified before 1924, it is found that this is not the case from 1924 onwards when changes in Cuxhaven can be compared to that derived from a larger data set. Furthermore, decadal variability was found to be substantial with relatively high values towards the end of the analysis period. However, these values are not unusual when compared to earlier periods.  相似文献   

16.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):276-291
Abstract

Climatic changes could alter the frequency and magnitude of rainfall events and the distribution of rainfall with altitude, with important consequences for management of aquatic ecosystems, water resources and flood risk. This study investigates changes in observed rainfall amounts across a range of altitudes in the Lake District region, northwest England, and spatial and temporal changes to the orographic “rainshadow” effect. Between the 1970s and 1990s there have been marked changes to the seasonality of precipitation, such that winters have become wetter, and increasingly dominated by heavy precipitation events. The intensity of these events has increased most markedly at higherelevation sites. Such changes could hinder recovery of sensitive upland sites from acidification and increase the risk of downstream flooding. An inter-decadal weakening of the region's rainshadow suggests a greater proportion of winter precipitation crosses the high-elevation Lake District dome. This is linked to changes in the frequency and character of wet weather patterns.  相似文献   

17.
Rainfall is a phenomenon difficult to model and predict, for the strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity and the presence of many zero values. We deal with hourly rainfall data provided by rain gauges, sparsely distributed on the ground, and radar data available on a fine grid of pixels. Radar data overcome the problem of sparseness of the rain gauge network, but are not reliable for the assessment of rain amounts. In this work we investigate how to calibrate radar measurements via rain gauge data and make spatial predictions for hourly rainfall, by means of Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We use zero-inflated distributions for taking zero-measurements into account. Several models are compared both in terms of data fitting and predictive performances on a set of validation sites. Finally, rainfall fields are reconstructed and standard error estimates at each prediction site are shown via easy-to-read spatial maps.  相似文献   

18.
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19.
Stemflow volume generation in lowland tropical forests was measured over a 1‐year period in the Malaysian state of Sarawak. The stemflow volume generated by 66 free‐standing trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) over 1 cm and a tree height over 1 m were measured daily in a representative 10 m × 10 m plot of the forest. Throughfall in the plot was also measured using 20 gauges in a fixed position. Of the 2292 mm of total rainfall observed during the year‐long period, stemflow accounted for 3·5%, throughfall for 82% and there was an interception loss of 14·5%. Understory trees (DBH < 10 cm) played an important role in stemflow generation, producing 77% of the overall stemflow volume and 90% during storms with less than 20 mm of rainfall. Also, owing to their efficiency at funneling rainfall or throughfall water received by their crowns, some understory trees noticeably reduced the catches of the throughfall gauges situated under the reach of their crown areas. During storms producing greater than 20 mm of rainfall, 80% of the total stemflow occurred; trees with a large DBH or height and for which the ratio between crown's diameter and depth is less than 1, tended to generate more stemflow volume in these storms. Mean areal stemflow as a fraction of rainfall in this lowland tropical forest was 3·4%, but may range from 1–10% depending upon the proportion of trees that are high or poor stemflow yielders. Trees with DBH greater than 10 cm were likely to contribute less than 1% of the 3·4% mean areal stemflow in the forest. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
江淮流域是我国暴雨频发的地区之一，而乌拉尔山阻塞高压和西太平洋副热带高压是北半球两个主要的大气环流系统.本文统计分析了1971~2003年期间乌山阻塞高压和西太平洋副高的逐日强度变化特征，研究了乌山阻塞高压和西太平洋副高对江淮流域强暴雨过程的响应关系.结果表明，江淮流域多数强暴雨过程发生在乌山阻高的减弱期，在乌山阻高的建立和加强期较少有持续性暴雨发生.乌山阻高的突然减弱是江淮流域强暴雨过程发生的强信号之一.同时，西太平洋副热带高压的加强西伸登陆是江淮流域强暴雨过程发生的必要条件之一.  相似文献   

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