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三江平原挠力河上游流域水文过程及其驱动力模型研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以三江平原挠力河上游流域为研究对象,选择年均流量和洪峰流量两个水文参变量,对流域降水、耕地面积和各水文参变量的统计回归分析,分别建立水文过程的单因素模型,用于分析气候变化、土地利用变化对水文过程的影响。在定量区分土地利用变化和气候变化的水文效应基础上,利用最小二乘法建立基于降雨量和耕地面积两种因素的流域水文过程驱动力模型。研究结果表明:(1)1956-1975年间降雨量对水文过程的影响非常显著,之后影响逐渐降低,总体上为气候模型对年均流量的模拟能力高于洪峰流量;(2)流域耕地面积,自1954年以来不断扩张,但未对水文过程产生显著影响,对洪峰流量的影响高于对年均径流的影响;(3)研究区的水文过程驱动力模型的模拟效果较好,相比单因素模型,年均流量和洪峰流量的模拟精度均得到较大提高,RMSE分别为0.5和1.04;对年均流量的模拟精度更高一些,决定性系数为0.933;(4)总体上,研究区水文过程受气候变化的影响程度高于土地利用变化,但土地利用变化对水文过程的影响不容忽视,尤其是对洪峰流量的影响呈增大趋势。 相似文献
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基于 GRACE 重力卫星反演2002～2018年中国七大流域的水储量变化。研究表明,中国陆地水储量变化存在明显的地域分布特征,辽河、海河、黄河和淮河流域水储量总体上呈递减趋势,年均减少速率分别为-0.54±0.9 mm/a、-5.96±0.6 mm/a、-2.65±0.8 mm/a 和-1.94±1.2 mm/a。在海河流域,地下水严重超采导致水储量明显减少;松花江、长江、珠江流域水储量呈显著增加趋势,年均增长速率分别为4.52±1.1 mm/a、3.84±0.7 mm/a、4.87±1.1 mm/a。流域水储量峰值一般晚于最大降雨量月份,这是因为降雨转换为陆地水储量需要一定时间。 相似文献
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利用金沙江流域30个气象站46年的气温与降水资料,运用线性相关分析法和小波分析法对金沙江流域的气温和降水在年与四季中的变化及空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明:流域的年均气温在20世纪90年代后呈明显上升趋势,冬季增温效应最明显;流域的降水量总体呈不明显的增加趋势,春冬两季的降水量变化较明显。至2006年后,除时间尺度6a以下,流域的气温在其他时间尺度上将处于偏高期。夏秋两季降水量在2006年后将处于偏低期,年、春冬两季降水量则将处于偏高期。流域的气温变化具有区域性差别,高值区与低值区分别位于流域的下游和上游地区;而降水的发生主要在流域的东北部。 相似文献
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2004是中国房市暴涨的一年，房价的快速上涨打破了大多数中国人的购房梦想，2004年1～11月份，全国商品房平均销售价格为每平方米2759元，同比上涨12．5％，全年各月与2003年相比，平均涨幅将近10％左右，2004年全国商品房平均售价为2714元／平方米，比1998年增加651元．年均增加93元，而2004年比2003年增加355元，远大于1998～2003年的年均增量。房价无休止的上涨已与居民收入比例产生明显的矛盾，据测算，全国35个大中城市房价收入比平均水平为11．6倍， 相似文献
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住宅产业竞争 现状与问题 在改革开放迅速发展的大背景下，我国住宅产业取得了令人瞩目的成绩。最近６年的城镇住宅开发总建筑面积年均这到４．４亿平方米，住宅开发的质量和住宅功能也随着消费者的成熟而不断提升，住宅投资在近几年占ＧＤＰ ６％～８％，占社会固定资产总投资 相似文献
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2003年4月美国能源信息署对今后24年全球的能源供需形势进行了预测。 预测全球经济增长率为3.1％;2025年世界油价为26.57美元/桶。未来全世界的能源消费将稳步增长,到2025年世界一次能源需求将比2001年增长58.4％,年均增长1.9％。天然气将是一次能源消费构成中增长最快的能源,年均增长2.8％;石油需求将进一步增加,2020年和2025年世界石油消费量将 相似文献
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《国土资源导刊(湖南)》2007,4(1):69
木材 原料缺口大
由于木材市场供应偏紧，进口木材价格升幅较大，从而拉动了国内木材市场整体价格的上升，一些木材价格升幅甚至连续达20％以上。据中国指数研究院家居研究中心的数据显示，我国木材市场供需缺口很大，每年木材总需求量约3亿至3．2亿立方米，实际可能供给量约为2亿立方米，年均缺口总量数额很大。 相似文献
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本文通过钱塘江深切谷的论述对末次冰期深切谷的恢复主要依据下列证据进行：（1）谷底为侵蚀不整合面，为末次冰期海平面下降，河流侵蚀切割所致；（2）谷内为异常厚的河流沉积物所充填，是冰后期海平面上升时形成，其中河漫滩沉积年代约14000～7500a以前；（3）深切谷之上被海相地层覆盖。超浅层生物气田分布在深切谷内，当今河流及全新世晚期河口湾与末次冰期深切谷既有区别又有继承性，其流域是浅层生物气藏分布的有利地段。 相似文献
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A large amount of loose debris materials were deposited on the slope of mountainous areas after the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. During and after the earthquake, these loose debris deposits collapsed and slide into valleys or rivers, changing river sediment supply condition and channel morphology. To investigate the mechanisms of granular flow and deposition, the dynamics of slope failure and sediment transportation in typical mountainous rivers of different intersection angles were analyzed with a coupling model of Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Method(CFD-DEM). The numerical results show that the change of intersection angle between the granular flow flume and the river channel can affect the deposit geometry and the fluid flow field significantly. As the intersection angle increases, the granular velocity perpendicular to the river channel increases, while the granular velocity parallel to the river channel decreases gradually. Compared to the test of dry granular flow, the CFD-DEM coupling tests show much higher granular velocity and larger volume of sediments entrained in the river. Due to the river flow, particles located at the edge of the deposition will move downstream gradually and the main section of sediments deposition moves from the center to the edge of the river channel. As a result, sediment supply in the downstream river will distribute unevenly. Under the erosion of fluid flow, the proportion of fine particles increases, while the proportion of coarse particles decreases gradually in the sediment deposition. The build-up of accumulated sediment mass will cause a significant increase in water level in the river channel, thus creating serious flooding hazard in mountainous rivers. 相似文献
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ZHOUYue LUXixi HUANGYing ZHUYunmei 《山地科学学报》2004,1(3):239-249
The sediment flux data, measured from a dry-hot valley of the Longchuan River, a tributary of the lower Jinsha River, were analyzed with Mann-Kendall test, Seasonal Mann-Kendall test and Sen‘s test. In both the upper reaches (Xiaohekou) and the lower reaches (Xiaohuangguayuan), the sediment fluxes showed a significant increase from 1970 to 2001, despite the fact that the water discharge did not change significantly during the period and numerous reservoir constructions which contribute to the trap of sediment. This can be attributed to the intensification of human activities, especially the activities related to land surface disturbances such as deforestation and afforestation, expansion of agriculture land, and road constructions. This increase is more significant in the lower reaches of the river observed at the place of Xiaohuangguayuan due to the dry-hot climate. The profound increase in sediment flux has significant implications for effective management of the sedimentation problems of the on-going Three Gorges Reservoir. 相似文献
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在傍河水源地地下水资源评价中，如何确定河流的补给量是最重要的问题之一．本文利用室内试验，探讨了河流渗漏补给量与排泄水位、介质渗透性的关系，分析了在河流与地下水脱节前后，地下水位随河水位、排泄水位而变化的规律，建立了河流补给地下水的非线性渗透模型． 相似文献
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介绍了投影寻踪自回归（ＰＰＡＲ（Ｋ））的基本思想及其算法。用ＰＰＡＲ（Ｋ）和均生函数（ＭＧＦ）两种方法对泸州市和北碚市降水量的时间序列进行了建模预测。结果表明ＰＰＡＲ（Ｋ）模型具有较高的稳定性和预测精度。 相似文献
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WANG Nan QIAO Lulu LI Guangxue ZHONG Yi SONG Dehai DING Dong GAO Fei JI Fengying 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2019,(1):20-30
Since 2002, an artificial water and sediment regulation(AWSR) has been carried out, which largely reduced water and sediment discharged from the Yellow River into the Bohai Sea. Although the sediment transport in the Yellow River Mouth(YRM) has been observed and modeled intensively since AWSR, but preferentially for the non-storm conditions. In this study, a three-dimensional current-wave-sediment coupled model, DHI-MIKE numerical model, was used to examine the seasonal suspended-sediment transport in the YRM after the AWSR. Results show that the seasonal distribution of suspended-sediments in the YRM is dominated by wind and wave rather than river input. The major transport pathway of suspended-sediments is from the western Laizhou Bay to the Bohai Strait during the winter monsoon, especially in storm events. In addition, about 66% of the river sediments deposit within 30 km of the YRM, which is smaller than previous estimations. It suggests that the YRM has been eroded in recent decades. 相似文献
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A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known for its frequent and devastating landslides. In this paper, we have developed a landslide inventory map for Hunza-Nagar valley by using the visual interpretation of the SPOT-5 satellite imagery and mapped a total of 172 landslides. The landslide inventory was subsequently divided into modelling and validation data sets. For the development of landslide susceptibility map seven discrete landslide causative factors were correlated with the landslide inventory map using weight of evidence and frequency ratio statistical models. Four different models of conditional independence were used for the selection of landslide causative factors. The produced landslides susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and area under curves criteria. The prediction power of the models was also validated with the prediction rate curve. The validation results shows that the success rate curves of the weight of evidence and the frequency models are 82% and 79%, respectively. The prediction accuracy results obtained from this study are 84% for weight of evidence model and 80% for the frequency ratio model. Finally, the landslide susceptibility index maps were classified into five different varying susceptibility zones. The validation and prediction result indicates that the weight of evidence and frequency ratio model are reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map, which may be helpful for landslides management strategies. 相似文献
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1INTRODUCTIONIntheHuanghe(Yellow) Riverbasin, soilerosionisaseriousproblem,whilerunoffandsedimentyieldsim-ulation hasnotbeenextensivelystudiedonthebasisofGIS(GeographicInformationSystem) and dis-tributedhydrologicalmodel.Inthisstudy,theLushiwatershed,whichislocatedattheupstreamoftheLushiHydrologicalStationintheLuoheRiver—thebiggesttributary oftheHuanghe Riveranddown-streamofXiaolangdiDam,isselectedasthestudyarea.ThelevelofsoilerosioninLushiwatershedismoderatein theHuangheRiverbas… 相似文献
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Long-term impact of extra sediment on notches and incised meanders in the Hoshe River, Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The extra sediment load induced by typhoons and rainstorms in the Heshe River,Taiwan,are the principal reason for severe sediment-related disasters.The total sediment load during Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was 31 × 106m3,accounting for 95% of the annual sediment discharge.Large amounts of sediment load entered the Hoshe River,causing the braiding index(BI) to increase.Subsequently,the BI became positively correlated with the channel width in the Hoshe River.The specific typhoon and rainstorm events decreased after Typhoon Morakot,the sediment input decreased,inducing the fluvial morphology of the braided river to develop into a meandering river.The extra sediment load induced the deposition depth to increase and produce a headward deposition in the main channel and its tributaries.In addition,the river bend and the topographical notch restrained the sediment from moving downstream and being stored locally,indirectly increasing the erosion density of the river banks from 2.5 to 10.5 times. 相似文献
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冰后期长江河口段古河谷地层层序特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
末次盛冰期,由于基面大幅度下降,长江河口段形成了深切古河谷。河流携带的部分粗砂砾在河床上形成滞留沉积。冰后期海平面上升引发的海侵造成了长江古河谷的充填和河床相、河漫滩河口湾相和部分河口湾浅海相的形成。尔后的进积产生了部分河口湾浅海相及三角洲相。根据钻孔资料绘制的古河谷地质剖面图显示,冰后期海侵旋回出现在三角洲顶点到现在河口口门地区,溯河而上受海洋影响的程度逐渐减弱。古河谷的中部,靠近主泓线附近,沉积层序完整。古河谷的边缘地带,往往缺失底部的河床相砂砾层。底部的厚层河床相砂砾层是由河床滞留沉积和溯源加积堆积形成的,在古河谷沉积层序中存在着多种沉积间断。 相似文献