共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
随着数值天气预报模式的日益普及以及位涡在不同天气、气候时、空尺度上的广泛应用,对采用模式输出资料计算的埃特尔（Ertel）位涡的精度提出了更高要求。将气象要素从中尺度模式普遍采用的地形追随坐标系向定义位涡的z或p坐标系的插值过程（插值法）,是导致埃特尔位涡计算误差的主要原因。文中利用地形追随坐标系与z（p）坐标系的变换关系,导出了z坐标系定义的埃特尔位涡在地形追随坐标系中的表达形式,实现了直接在模式格点上计算埃特尔位涡（直接法）,在提高计算精度的同时,保留了其在z坐标系中的物理意义,方便了分析与应用。为了进一步分析直接法在减少计算误差方面的作用,使用WRF模式对2016年7月发生在华北地区复杂地形背景下的一次黄淮气旋爆发过程进行了模拟,利用模式输出资料对此次天气过程中强降水时段插值法计算误差的分布进行了分析。结果表明,利用直接法计算位涡可有效减少插值法引入的计算误差,中低层均方根误差可达0.5 PVU,中高层可达0.3 PVU。将其应用到中小尺度对流性天气精细化结构的分析及气候统计研究中,可以有效减少插值法误差对结果产生的不良影响,提高计算和分析准确度。 相似文献
2.
This contribution investigates the nature of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in a steep and narrow Alpine valley under fair-weather
summertime conditions. The Riviera Valley in southern Switzerland was chosen for a detailed case study, in which the evaluation
of aircraft data (obtained from the MAP-Riviera field campaign) is combined with the application of high-resolution (350-m
horizontal grid spacing) large-eddy simulations using the numerical model ARPS. The simulations verify what has already been
observed on the basis of measurements: TKE profiles scale surprisingly well if the convective velocity scale w
* is obtained from the sun-exposed eastern slope rather than from the surface directly beneath the profiles considered. ARPS
is then used to evaluate the TKE-budget equation, showing that, despite sunny conditions, wind shear is the dominant production
mechanism. Therefore, the surface heat flux (and thus w
*) on the eastern slope does not determine the TKE evolution directly but rather, as we believe, indirectly via the interaction
of thermally-driven cross-valley and along-valley flows. Excellent correlation between w
* and the up-valley wind speed solidifies this hypothesis. 相似文献
3.
Estimation of daytime downward longwave radiation under clear and cloudy skies conditions over a sub-humid region 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Facundo Carmona Raúl Rivas Vicente Caselles 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(1-2):281-295
Downward longwave radiation (LW ↓ ) is a relevant variable for meteorological and climatic studies. Good estimates of this term are vitally important in correct determining of the net radiation, which, in turn, modulates the magnitude of the terms in the surface energy budget (e.g., evaporation). In remote sensing applications, the determination of daytime LW↓ is required for estimation of the net radiation using satellite data. LW↓ is not directly measured in weather stations and then is estimated using models with surface air temperature and humidity as input. In this paper, we identify the best models to estimate daytime downward longwave radiation from meteorological data in the sub-humid Pampean region. Several well-known models to estimate LW↓ under clear and cloudy skies were tested. We use downward radiation components and meteorological data registered at Tandil (Argentina) from 2006 to 2010 (840 days). In addition, we propose two multiple linear regression models (MLRM-1 and MLRM-2) to estimate LW↓ at the surface for all sky conditions. The new equations show better performance than the others models tested with root mean square errors between 12 and 16 W m?2, bias close to zero and best agreements with measured data (r 2?≥?0.85). 相似文献
4.
Edgar L Andreas 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1991,54(1-2):167-182
Local free convection scaling is one of the obvious triumphs of boundary-layer similarity theory. In free convection, there is no dynamic velocity scale; the sensible and latent heat fluxes, therefore, scale directly with the temperature and humidity structure parameters C
t
2 and C
q
2. By using scintillation to measure the refractive index structure parameter C
n
2 at two electromagnetic (EM) wavelengths, we can obtain C
t
2 and C
q
2 and, thus, in effect, measure path-averaged values of the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Here I describe this so-called two-wavelength method for free convection, derive quantitative guidelines for optimizing the method, and evaluate its potential accuracy. I show that the two-wavelength method works best when one EM wavelength is in the visible or infrared region and the other is in the millimeter or radio region. When the Bowen ratio is between -5 and -0.1 or between 0.1 and 5, the expected accuracy of the measured fluxes is ±10–20% — typical of what is possible with eddy-correlation measurements. With the two-wavelength method, however, the fluxes represent spatial averages. 相似文献
5.
Semi-implicit algorithms are popularly used to deal with the gravitational
term in numerical models. In this paper, we adopt the method of
characteristics to compute the solutions for gravity waves on a sphere
directly using a semi-Lagrangian advection scheme instead of the
semi-implicit method in a shallow water model, to avoid expensive matrix
inversions. Adoption of the semi-Lagrangian scheme renders the numerical
model always stable for any Courant number, and which saves CPU time. To
illustrate the efficiency of the characteristic constrained interpolation
profile (CIP) method, some numerical results are shown for idealized test
cases on a sphere in the Yin-Yang grid system. 相似文献
6.
7.
Peter Good Jonathan M. Gregory Jason A. Lowe Timothy Andrews 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):1041-1053
A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 1024 J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs. 相似文献
8.
Heping Liu 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,115(1):151-168
Energy and CO2 fluxes are commonly measured above plant canopies using an eddy covariance system that consists of a three-dimensional sonic anemometer and an H2O/CO2 infrared gas analyzer. By assuming that the dry air is conserved and inducing mean vertical velocity, Webb et al. (Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 85-100, 1980) obtained two equations to account for density effects due to heat and water vapour transfer on H2O/CO2 fluxes. In this paper, directly starting with physical consideration of air-parcel expansion/compression, we derive two alternative equations to correct for these effects that do not require the assumption that dry air is conserved and the use of the mean vertical velocity. We then applied these equations to eddy flux observations from a black spruce forest in interior Alaska during the summer of 2002. In this ecosystem, the equations developed here led to increased estimates of CO2 uptake by the vegetation during the day (up to about 20%), and decreased estimates of CO2 respiration by the ecosystem during the night (approximately 4%) as compared with estimates obtained using the Webb et al. approach. 相似文献
9.
本文对非线性风场的 VAD技术 ,从理论上进行了比较详细的分析 ,并对非线性风场中的非线性判断、非线性模型建立以及提取测站上空风向风速做了讨论。分析表明 ,均方根误差 RMS可作为风场线性与否的判据 ,若用二阶及其以下谐波拟合 ,且拟合 RMS<1.5 m/ s,则认为该风场为线性 ,否则为非线性 ;而且RMS≤ 1.5 m/ s可以用来确定该非线性风场多项式描述的程度 ,这样从雷达距离较远的非线性风场得到的测站上空水平风风向风速与准确值有较好的一致性 相似文献
10.
In this paper we consider the buying/selling prices of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission permits in trading models with uncertainty. Permission prices, although usually omitted from standard models, may significantly influence the trading market. We thus undertook to construct a more realistic trade model and to compare it with the standard one. To do this, we introduced several important changes to the standard model, namely, (1) a new optimized quality function; and (2) transactions with price negotiations between regions. We also enhanced the model using methods described in the literature to allow it to deal with reported emissions uncertainty. Additionally, we used an original method of simulating this kind of market based on a specialized evolutionary algorithm (EA). 相似文献
11.
This article analyses the determinants of CO2 emission for 15 post-Soviet Union independent (PSI) countries given their recent transition to market-based economies and their relatively high levels of corruption. The direct and indirect effects of economic growth on CO2 emission for the PSI countries are derived using a multiple-equation generalized method of moment (GMM) approach to account for simultaneity among corruption, growth and CO2 emission. A linear relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and CO2 emission was observed from the analysis. Furthermore, GDP influences CO2 emission directly, but also indirectly through its impact on corruption. Similarly, corruption affects CO2 emission directly, as well as indirectly through its impact on GDP. Political democracy and economic freedom increase CO2 emission indirectly through their impact on economic growth. Improved energy efficiency and the EU climate policy reduce CO2 emission, while inflows of foreign direct investment tend to increase CO2 emission.Policy relevanceFirst, PSI countries need to invest more in efficient energy technologies to mitigate CO2 emission levels significantly. Second, PSI policies aimed at reducing deforestation (thereby increasing population density) may help mitigate carbon emission. Third, PSI countries would be well served to recognize the detrimental effects of foreign direct investment before embarking on a misguided policy path that attracts such inflows at any cost. 相似文献
12.
ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区在热带太平洋海温的多模式集合预报中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文将ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区与多模式集合预报方法相结合, 提出了一种能够有效提高预报技巧且又具有较小计算成本的多模式集合预报方法。该方法在目标观测敏感区内采用模式不等权的多模式超级集合预报方法(SUP), 而在其他区域采用相对简单的等权的多模式消除偏差集合平均方法(BREM)。利用CMIP5中15个气候系统模式的工业革命前参照试验(pi-Control)数据, 针对热带太平洋海温的长期演变开展了理想预报试验。将新集合预报方法与现有的多模式集合预报方法进行了比较。结果表明, 在所考察的预报期内(即1～20年), 新集合预报方法与整个热带太平洋区域使用SUP方法具有相当的预报技巧, 但前者的计算成本明显小于后者, 计算时间仅为后者的1/4。可见, 新方法是一个具有较高预报技巧且计算成本较小的多模式集合预报方法。同时, 其较高的预报技巧强调了热带太平洋SST预测对ENSO目标观测敏感区内的模式误差也是极端敏感的, 也正因如此, 多模式集合预报方法才能够有效过滤模式误差的影响, 具有较高的预报技巧。 相似文献
13.
采用北京325 m铁塔2008—2012年的单层超声观测资料,基于莫宁-奥布霍夫相似理论(Monin-Obukhov similarity theory)和前人提出的最小误差分析方法,计算了铁塔周边下垫面的零平面位移高度和动力粗糙度长度。结果表明,由于铁塔位于北京市区,其周边下垫面呈现极其复杂的非均匀性,所以对应铁塔周边不同的扇区,零平面位移高度和动力粗糙度长度各有不同。平均而言,在2008—2012年间,铁塔周边下垫面的零平面位移高度为34.4 m,动力粗糙度长度为1.16 m。此外,综合前人的计算结果发现,铁塔周边的零平面位移高度和动力粗糙度长度在2001年之前呈显著增加的趋势,而在2001年以后并未增长,这一现象与铁塔周边的城市化进程相对应。 相似文献
14.
We analyse the dependence of the cloud radiative effect (CRE) and cloud amount on mid-tropospheric pressure velocity (ω 500) and sea surface temperature (SST) and point out the shortcomings of using these two proxies separately as means to separate cloud regimes. A bivariate approach is proposed to overcome these shortcomings and it is used to systematically investigate marine cloud properties at different spatial and time scales in the present-day (1985–2001) tropical climate. During the 1997–1998 El Niño, the greatest regional change in CRE and cloud cover coincides with the greatest local change in circulation and SST. In addition, we find that the cooling effect of the stratiform low clouds reduces at the rate of approximately 1 W/m2 per percent of cloudiness reduction in the subsident cold pools of the Pacific ocean. During El Niño, the transition between different cloud regimes gives rise to opposing cloud feedbacks. The sign of the total feedback is controlled by the cloud optical thickness. More generally, we find that the largest part of the cloud response to El Niño, when averaged over the tropical Pacific, is not directly associated with ω 500 and SST changes, so other factors must play a role as well. 相似文献
15.
Annual and seasonal trends of cooling, heating, and industrial degree-days in coastal regions of Saudi Arabia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Shafiqur Rehman Luai M. Al-Hadhrami Shamsuddin Khan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,103(3-4):479-488
In this study, we systematically analyze the changing properties of reference evapotranspiration (ETref) across China using Penman?CMonteith (P-M) method, exploring the major sensitive meteorological variables for ETref, and investigating influences of human activities, mainly urbanization in this study, on ETref changes in both space and time. We obtain some important conclusions: (1) decreasing annual and seasonal ETref is observed in the east, south and northwest China. However, a long strip lying between these regions is identified to be characterized by increasing ETref; (2) in the regions east to 100°E, the net total solar radiation is the main cause behind the decreasing ETref. In northwest China, however, relative humidity is recognized as the most sensitive variable for the ETref; (3) in the east and south China, urbanization greatly influences the ETref by directly decreasing net solar radiation. The increased air pollution and aerosols in the highly urbanized regions are the main driving factors causing decreasing net radiation; and (4) this study reveals accelerating hydrological cycle from south to north China. Besides, increasing ETref in the source regions of large rivers in China may pose new challenges for the basin-scale water resource management. The results of this study highlight the integrated effects of climate changes and human activities on ETref changes in different regions of China, which will be of great scientific and practical merits in in-depth understanding of hydrological cycle alterations under the changing environment in China. 相似文献
16.
Enrico Ferrero Luca Mortarini Stefano Alessandrini Carlo Lacagnina 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,147(1):123-137
The joint concentration probability density function of two reactive chemical species is modelled using a bivariate Gamma distribution coupled with a three-dimensional fluctuating plume model able to simulate the diffusion and mixing of turbulent plumes. A wind-tunnel experiment (Brown and Bilger, J Fluid Mech 312:373–407, 1996), carried out in homogeneous unbounded turbulence, in which nitrogen oxide is released from a point source in an ozone doped background and the chemical reactions take place in non-equilibrium conditions, is considered as a test case. The model is based on a stochastic Langevin equation reproducing the barycentre position distribution through a proper low-pass filter for the turbulence length scales. While the meandering large-scale motion of the plume is directly simulated, the internal mixing relative to the centroid is reproduced using a bivariate Gamma density function. The effect of turbulence on the chemical reaction (segregation), which in this case has not yet attained equilibrium, is directly evaluated through the covariance of the tracer concentration fields. The computed mean concentrations and the O3–NO concentration covariance are also compared with those obtained by the Alessandrini and Ferrero Lagrangian single particle model (Alessandrini and Ferrero, Physica A 388:1375–1387, 2009) that entails an ad hoc parametrization for the segregation coefficient. 相似文献
17.
Lucas da Costa Santos Jefferson Vieira Jos&#; Fabiani Denise Bender Daniel Soares Alves Pablo Ricardo Nitsche Elton Fialho dos Reis Rubens Duarte Coelho 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(1):55-68
The hydrological variable evapotranspiration (ET) is challenging to estimate because it cannot be measured directly in natural environments (except in small plots). The uncertainties associated with the models used for its prediction have increased under climate change conditions. We studied the influence of stomatal resistance on ET estimates using the Penman-Monteith method as projected by three general circulation models in two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for future climates throughout the twenty-first century (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). We also investigated the probable ET rate changes in relation to the current (30 years average, 1980–2009) climate conditions for the Paraná state in the southern region of Brazil. The results were regionalized to help policymakers assess climate change impacts and design adaptation measures. ET increases of up to 15% were found in future climate conditions, which may lead to a significant increase in the water demand for agricultural crops. However, we believe that plant morphophysiological changes may occur under atmospheric CO2 enrichment conditions and that a possible reduction in stomatal conductance will result in lower ET increases than those obtained with the traditional Penman-Monteith method. When considering future climate scenarios, we propose the equation be adjusted to consider stomatal resistance as a function of CO2 concentrations. 相似文献
18.
L. Haimberger B. Ahrens F. Hamelbeck M. Hantel 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,77(1-4):167-184
Summary Diagnostic time-mean budgets of energy and water are evaluated in many atmospheric process studies. The errors of budget-derived
quantities like sub-gridscale fluxes or diabatic heating are governed by the errors of the budgets. Here we consider 3D-budgets
on the meso-β scale over Europe. They are compiled from analyses of state quantities available from forecast centres.
In the present study we found that the mandatory 6 hours sampling interval between synoptic observations is the main error
source for routine time-mean budgets. The errors have been quantified (i) by first sampling forecast data of the German Europamodell every 5 minutes and averaging them over 12 hours (reference budget), and (ii) by sampling the same data only every 6 hours and averaging these also over 12 hours (routine budget). With this method we find that routine budgets in single atmospheric meso-β scale columns show relative random errors
of typically 200% and systematic errors of up to 20%, exclusively due to undersampling. Thus routine budgets, if applied to
specific days at individual locations, cannot be expected to yield useful results, except perhaps for cases with extremely
strong signal. Compositing over several hundreds of columns with similar weather reduces the random budget error down to about
50%; this seems to be the best one can achieve for routine budgets. The systematic error of some budget quantities is caused
by a correlation between the time of occurence of certain processes (mainly convection) and the sampling times. While this
error cannot be reduced through compositing, we find that it can be crudely estimated by using different time averaging methods.
As application for this method we determine sub-gridscale budget quantities over the BALTEX catchment (August-September 1995)
for an ensemble of convectively active and an ensemble of rain-active columns. For the ensemble mean profiles we find, in
terms of the diagnosed sub-gridscale test quantities diabatic heating and vertical moist enthalpy flux divergence, that their
accuracy is sufficient to detect statistically significant differences between both ensembles. The diabatic heating is about
the same for both ensembles, while the flux divergence in the convective ensemble is about three times as large as in the
rain ensemble.
Received November 7, 2001 Revised April 4, 2001 相似文献
19.
Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961–1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071–2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. 相似文献