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依据地下流体存在趋势性异常和短临异常的基本观测事实, 提出“应力-应变效应说与水诱发异常说并重”的地下流体地震预报研究的科学思路。按照这一思路, 对地震地下流体观测的布网与选井原则提出了新的补充意见; 认为降水及其相关的地表水、地下水及大范围抽水等是地形变、地应变、地应力、水化及地电阻率等多种前兆异常产生的调制与诱发因素, 因而需要对原来的干扰因素的内涵作修正; 对地下流体前兆异常做了新定义及主要特征的归纳; 对于今后的工作, 提出了加强对地下流体短临前兆异常重现性的研究、加强对浅层地下流体的调制与诱发作用的研究以及积极促进地震地下流体学与其他相关学科的交叉与融合等建议。 相似文献
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地震预报可行性的科学与实践问题讨论 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
唐山地震40周年之际, 回顾我国地震预测预报探索的科学实践历程, 总结其进展, 讨论遇到的科学与实践问题, 展望未来, 这是最好的纪念． 实现地震预报的关键是短临预报, 震前是否有前兆, 是否可以观测到, 是否可应用于预测地震并取得减灾实效, 这都是地震预报探索需要阐明的问题, 即地震预报的可行性研究． 本文主要对地震前兆及其物理基础、 地震能否预测的争论以及观测的重要性等一些重要科学与实践问题进行讨论, 并在此基础上认识到, 地震是有前兆的, 且前兆很复杂, 在充分研究前兆的基础上地震预报是可能的; 此外, 地震预测预报探索需从可行性研究进入更高的探索阶段． 相似文献
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由于缺乏对地震孕育和发生机理的认识，地震前兆异常判别受到人们的认识水平、周围环境甚至心理因素的影响，带有很大的随意性，以致在地震预报中出现诸多的怪异现象：地震前兆多是事后总结出来的；绝大多数异常之后没有地震发生；多数地震之前测不到前兆异常；前兆测值对近处地震无反应，但其异常与远处地震对应较好；前兆异常缺乏重现性；异常数量与台站多寡、震情紧张程度密切相关，等等。这些都说明，在地震科学的研究中，我们仍应从最基础的工作做起，再逐步地实现地震预报。 相似文献
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地震预报是以观测为基础的科学,观测研究是其基本研究途径;对地震前兆和地震预报有不同的看法和争议,解决的办法是通过观测预测实践;地震前兆和短临预报是地震预报的难点,突破它的主要途径也是通过观测与预测科学实践。我国自1966年邢台地震以来已取得了200余次5级以上地震的震例实测资料,既经历了1966—1976年的7级地震活跃期, 相似文献
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地壳形变与地震前兆探索回顾和展望 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文回顾了我国地震预报中地壳形变观测技术、 数据处理方法和软件及地壳形变前兆观测研究进展。 1966年邢台地震后, 我国地震预报工作经历了难得的成功、 更多惨痛失败和“地震不可预报论”等干扰, 发展曲折。 尽管2008年汶川和2011年东日本大地震预报失败,但这两次和其他大地震前后GPS和其他观测得到的地壳形变表明, 大地震是有前兆的, 是可以预报的。 比较了我国地震预报所采用的主要的地形变观测技术和分析方法, 讨论了观测和数据处理方法的特点, 简要介绍了地壳形变地震前兆新近的研究结果, 重点阐述了GPS观测技术多方面的优势。 事实证明, GPS观测得到的汶川大地震前的形变异常或前兆, 是我国地壳形变观测与地震前兆探索最突出的成果。 相似文献
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帕克菲尔德地震预报实验场:2004年6级地震及其对地震物理和地震预测研究的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
介绍了美国中加州帕克菲尔德(Parkfield)地震预报实验场的建设、运行和试验场工作期间发生的2004年6级地震的情况.着重阐述了在实验场20多年的地震预测研究中遇到的一系列科学同题以及一些新的认识.这些科学认识包括:对活动构造破裂分段的研究是地震长期预测的基础;无震滑动是地震预测中的一大难点和障碍;地震复发模型具有的相当大的不确定性且在预测应用上有很大的局限性;地震前兆的复杂性、差异性及其对地震预测中常用原则--前兆异常重现性和相似性的挑战等.这些认识对地震预测研究与实验场建设有一定的启示意义. 相似文献
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地震前兆观测中有许多方法都能观测出固体潮汐的变化,如重力、倾斜、应变、地下水位等。固体潮汐的观测资料除用于地球结构、地球物理性能等的研究之外,主要用于地震预报、是地震前兆观测中能够预知其正常背景的手段。知道了正常变化范围,就能区分出异常变化。从中再找出地震前兆的异常变化。 固体潮观测的各手段进行地震预报时,普遍应用潮波的观测振幅与理论振幅的比值的变化和漂移 相似文献
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针对地震预测中定量计算的困难性,利用地震前兆异常高维数据特征,研究一种基于粒子群聚类算法的地震预报模型。该模型输入为条带、空区、短水准等14项异常指标数据,输出为震级分类。模型设定聚类平均距离为粒子群算法的评价函数,发掘分析地震前兆数据与地震震级的关系。结果表明该模型能有效地根据地震前兆数据预测地震震级,与传统聚类k-means算法模型相比,稳定性强,预报准确性更高。历史地震数据实例研究表明,本文提出的模型充分利用了粒子群算法的高鲁棒性、高适应性和群体智能的协同策略,是改进地震预报效能的途径之一。 相似文献
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Michael O. Garcia Diane Hanano Ashton Flinders Dominique Weis Garrett Ito Mark D. Kurz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(6):1445-1463
The size, shape, and magmatic history of the most recently discovered shield volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, Mahukona, have been controversial. Mahukona corresponds to what was thought to be a gap in the paired sequence (Loa and Kea trends) of younger Hawaiian volcanoes (<4?Ma). Here, we present the results of marine expeditions to Mahukona where new bathymetry, sidescan sonar, gravity data, and lava samples were collected to address these controversies. Modeling of bathymetric and gravity data indicate that Mahukona is one of the smallest Hawaiian volcanoes (～6,000?km3) and that its magmatic system was not focused in a long-lived central reservoir like most other Hawaiian volcanoes. This lack of a long-lived magmatic reservoir is reflected by the absence of a central residual gravity high and the random distribution of cones on Mahukona Volcano. Our reconstructed subsidence history for Mahukona suggests it grew to at least ～270?m below sea level but probably did not form an island. New 40Ar–39Ar plateau ages range from 350 to 654?ka providing temporal constraints for Mahukona’s post-shield and shield stages of volcanism, which ended prematurely. Mahukona post-shield lavas have high 3He/4He ratios (16–21?Ra), which have not been observed in post-shield lavas from other Hawaiian volcanoes. Lava compositions range widely at Mahukona, including Pb isotopic values that straddle the boundary between Kea and Loa sequences of volcanoes. The compositional diversity of Mahukona lavas may be related to its relatively small size (less extensive melting) and the absence of a central magma reservoir where magmas would have been homogenized. 相似文献
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In this study, we have checked the location and focal depth of the Yecheng earthquake (m b = 6.0, maximum intensity VII) of February 14, 1980. The result shows that this is an intermediate event with a focal depth of 90 km. The microepicenter is located at 36. 4°N, 76, 9°E, while the macroepicenter is at 37.3°N, 76.9°E, 90 km to the north of the microepicenter. This is the first destructive intermediate event in China which led to a damage as severe as of intensity VII. The focal mechanism of the event is determined to be of thrust type. Combined with the analysis of seismological and geological data in surrounding area, the possible relation between the event and plate movement has been discussed. The result in this paper indicates that in some particular place, the destructive effect of intermediate event should be considered in seismic hazard assessment. 相似文献
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Earthquake of November 30, 2004, in Podhale region, southern Poland, was of unexpectedly big size in this area of weak seismicity.
As Poland is considered a country of low seismicity, the earthquake has caused concern about seismic hazard in Poland, especially
since it took place shortly after the even more unexpected Kaliningrad Region, Russia, earthquakes of September 21, 2004,
that inflicted minor damage in northern Poland. The paper presents the findings on the Podhale earthquake which reached macroseismic
intensity up to 7 and magnitude 4.7 (m
b
; ISC). The event was felt up to a distance of about 100 km and inflicted slight damage to buildings in its narrow epicentral
area, thus evidencing its relatively shallow depth. The quake has been located near the village of Skrzypne, about 15 km west-southwest
of the district capital Nowy Targ. The source mechanism has been found to be of dip slip normal fault type, although a problem
remains of association of this mechanism with known tectonic dislocations in the region. The earthquake has been followed
by a long series of aftershocks. Their distribution in time is also studied and the biggest aftershocks have been located. 相似文献
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Drop calorimetry measurements between 900 and 1850 K are reported for amorphous anorthite, andesine, wollastonite, diopside, cordierite and pyrope. The isobaric heat capacities of the glassy and liquid phases of these materials, and the enthalpies of fusion of the minerals have been derived. The calorimetric entropies of fusion of these substances and of other oxide minerals are generally consistent with the calculated volume changes on melting and with the observed pressure dependences of the melting points. The thermodynamics of mixing of liquid plagioclases have been examined, and it is concluded that their enthalpies of mixing are markedly different from the values derived directly from solution calorimetry measurements at 985 K. 相似文献
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In this study, we experimentally established the relationship between physical properties, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of coal, Taiyuan Formation, Qinshui Basin, China using representative coal samples collected from three different mines via the rock mechanics testing system (MTS). We analyzed the organic macerals, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of 11 coal samples using petrography and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The experimental results suggest that (1) the elastic parameters can be described by linear equations, (2) both P-and S-wave velocities display anisotropy, (3) the anisotropy negatively correlates with vitrinite reflectance, and (4) the acoustic velocities and Young’s modulus are negatively correlated with the volume of micropores. The derived empirical equations can be used in the forward modeling and seismic inversion of physical properties of coal for improving the coal-bed methane (CBM) reservoir characterization. 相似文献
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Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty,non-stationarity,likelihood, hypothesis testing,and communication 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Keith Beven 《水文科学杂志》2016,61(9):1652-1665
ABSTRACTThis paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs 相似文献
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Soils along catenas of Pinedale (15–20 ka) and Bull Lake (100–130 ka) age moraines at Whiskey Basin in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA, were sampled to assess the effects of aeolian processes on soil development here. Aeolian processes appear to have in?uenced soils by both depositing sediments and eroding topsoils. Pedogenic silt (often used as an indicator of wind deposition) accumulated in the Bull Lake soils moderately correlate with pedogenic clay accumulated, suggesting that ?ne sediments may have been deposited and incorporated into soil formation here. Following removal of previous topsoil by wind during Pinedale glaciation, Bull Lake B horizons have developed into contemporary A horizons. These data further link aeolian processes to soil development on piedmont moraines throughout the Wind River Range. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献