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1.
The nearest in time close approach of potentially hazardous asteroid (99942) Apophis with the Earth will take place on April 13, 2029, when the minimum distance of the asteroid from the Earth’s center will be as small as 38 000 km. Such a close approach will result in substantial transformation of the asteroid’s orbit. The value of the perturbations depends on the minimum distance between the bodies during the approach. Among possible transformations of the orbit are those which result in new dangerous approaches and even in probable Apophis collisions with the Earth starting from 2036. At present, at least four solutions are known for the Apophis orbit which were obtained using all radar and most of available optical observations. The procedures of assigning weights to conditional equations and the models of the asteroid’s motion have differed to some extent when finding these solutions. Of considerable interest is the comparison of the found orbital parameters with the estimates of their accuracy, since small distinctions in their values result in considerable distinctions in the forecast of Apophis’ motion after 2029 and beyond. It is shown in the paper that the estimates of the probability of an Apophis collision with the Earth in 2036 differ by some orders of magnitude, according to various solutions. The influence of factors which were disregarded in the models of motion even more increases the uncertainty in forecasting the motion after 2029. More accurate forecasting can be achieved as a result of additional optical and, to a greater extent, a series of radar observations in 2013 and then in 2020–2021, and/or as a result of processing radio signals of the transmitter delivered to the Apophis surface or to the orbit of its artificial satellite, as it was proposed in a number of papers.  相似文献   

2.
The Apophis asteroid attracted the attention of scientists immediately after its discovery in 2004, because the initially determined orbit of this asteroid assumes a possible collision with Earth in April 2029. The size of Apophis is about several hundred meters, and its collision with Earth might result in a large regional or even global catastrophe. At present, the trajectory of Apophis has been calculated more accurately, and a collision in 2029 has ruled out; the asteroid will pass Earth at a distance of about 37 000 km from its center. However, close approaches or collisions are possible after 2029, including the most probable in 2036. The risk of collision in 2036 is well known and actively examined by the scientists. In this study, we consider the peculiarities of the asteroid motion associated with its approach in 2029 and with a possible close approach in 2036. The trajectories scatter during the approaches and the loss of accuracy is associated with these scatterings. As a result, the trajectory of Apophis may become nondeterministic after 2036; that is, it cannot now be determined unambiguously. Although such events are very unlikely, it is interesting to examine a variety of alternative variants of Apophis’ close approaches and collisions with Earth immediately after 2036. The effects of small variations in the asteroid velocity at different moments in time after its impact with a certain mass are discussed.  相似文献   

3.
Asteroid 99942 Apophis is one of the most hazardous NEAs (near-Earth asteroids) today. Some specific features of its travel are the possibility of repeated Earth approaches, loss of forecast precision due to trajectory dispersions, and nondeterministic motion. These specific features do not only characterize Apophis. Special methods are needed to find possible collision trajectories among these travels. These trajectories are located in the vicinity of resonance collision orbits.The present paper discusses methods of detecting hazardous trajectories in the event of nondeterministic motion and characterizing these trajectories as applied to asteroid Apophis, precision losses in the event of trajectory dispersions, conditions of determinacy losses, and hazardous trajectories in the vicinity of resonance orbits.  相似文献   

4.
A great number of probable encounters of asteroid 2015 RN35 with the Earth have been found; many of them were unknown earlier. The main characteristics and properties of the corresponding trajectories have been obtained. Probable impacts of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth are also discussed. The results suggest that the multitudes of potential impacts of hazardous asteroids with the Earth can be and must be analyzed in more detail. Such an analysis is required to plan and implement the measures on preventing the asteroid impact hazard.  相似文献   

5.
Vesta’s crater sizes that are based on images returned from the Dawn probe orbiting the asteroid 4 Vesta are compared with sizes of spots on its surface derived from hydrosilicate equivalent widths and asteroid color indices B-V and V-R observed spectrophotometrically on earth using a spectral-frequency method. The sizes of craters and spots at the asteroid poles prove to correspond to the sizes of spots that are assumed to be located at latitudes of 40°...45° N and S. Comparative results for the crater sizes ranging from 10 to 100 km are tabulated. We conclude that crater sizes on asteroid surfaces can be determined using the spectral-frequency method.  相似文献   

6.
In this paper, the method of changing the trajectories of hazardous asteroids with orbits known for some years to be on a possible collision course with the Earth is considered. The method relies on the use of small asteroids (asteroid-projectiles) directed at hazardous celestial bodies by giving the projectile a sufficiently small velocity impulse ensuring the Earth gravity assist. As a result, the asteroid-projectile vector can be controllably changed over a wide range. Apophis is considered as an example of the target asteroid. The technical feasibility of this method is discussed. It is noted that despite the potential use of this elegant method, its practical implementation requires further research and development.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents a time-dependent two-dimensional numerical model of the impact phenomena. The model deals with formation and evolution of a crater, formation of an impact jet, and with global deformation and dynamical parameters of the impacted body. The model is applied to study the problem of deformation of the Earth when impacted by an asteroid. A hydrodynamical code of the free particle numerical method (HEFP) is applied to a silicate asteroid (impactor) and to the multilayered spherical Earth (target) described by the PREM model. The asteroids radii are within a range between 5 and 800 km. The velocity range is 20–30 km s−1. Calculations cover the time intervals up to 2000 s.

Each of the material points of the bodies under consideration (the Earth and an asteroid) is described by its time-dependent position, velocity, specific internal energy, pressure and density. The global results, among others, are as follows: (i) deformation of the Earth's surface; (ii) position of the shock wave within the Earth; (iii) deformation of consecutive layers within the Earth's interior, and (iv) morphology of the crater including behavior of the impact jet and deformation of the impactor.  相似文献   


8.
The possibilities of deflecting an asteroid from its collision course with the Earth by changing its velocity with an impact are considered. Using the asteroid Apophis as an example, the time dependence of the positions and sizes of the keyholes leading to collision is studied. It has been found that the possibility of deflecting this asteroid usually exists, and the impact can be accomplished in principle, given the capabilities of modern space technology. A change in the velocity should be performed before the encounter of 2029 in order to use the gravitational maneuver effect. The possible accuracy of determining Apophis’ orbit and the keyholes that lead to collision and are associated with the resonance returns are considered.  相似文献   

9.
Currently, there is some positive probability of a collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth in 2036. In this study, the problem of preventing the collision by correcting the asteroid’s orbit is examined. The characteristics of the impulsive correction are investigated, as well as the ways of its implementation by kinetic and nuclear impacts. Impulsive and weak effects are compared. Weak effects leading to slow changes in the asteroid’s orbit are considered to be more usable because of the potentially higher accuracy of this correction. The characteristics of the gravitational effect of the asteroid by a special spacecraft (SC) kept by its control jet engines at a certain point near the asteroid and gravitationally perturbing the motion of Apophis are analyzed. The change in the perigee radius of the Apophis orbit in 2036 and the SC mass consumption are examined as functions of the effect duration, the SC mass, its distance to the asteroid, the start time of the correction, and the velocity of the SC engine exhaust jet.  相似文献   

10.
The efficiency of absorption of X-rays generated by a nuclear explosion at the surface of an asteroid, estimated earlier, is used to calculate the explosion yield needed to deflect the orbit of an asteroid. Following the work of Ahrens &38; Harris, it is shown that a recoil velocity of 1 cm s−1 is required to deflect an asteroid from a collision course with the Earth, and the necessary yield of explosion energy is estimated. If it is assumed that the scaling law between the energy and the diameter of the resulting crater, obtained from experiments carried out on the Earth, remains valid on the asteroid surface, where gravity is much weaker, an explosion energy of 8 and 800 megaton (Mton) equivalent of TNT would be required for asteroids of diameter 1 and 10 km respectively. If, on the other hand, the crater diameter is proportional to a certain power of the gravity g , the power being determined from a dimension analysis, 130 kton and 12 Mton would be required to endow asteroids of diameters 1 and 10 km with the required velocity, respectively. The result indicates that in order to estimate the required explosion energy, a better understanding of cratering under gravity much weaker than on the Earth would be required.  相似文献   

11.
David Parry Rubincam   《Icarus》2007,192(2):460-468
Photon thrust from shape alone can produce quasi-secular changes in an asteroid's orbital elements. An asteroid in an elliptical orbit with a north–south shape asymmetry can steadily alter its elements over timescales longer than one orbital trip about the Sun. This thrust, called here orbital YORP (YORP = Yarkovsky–O'Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack), operates even in the absence of thermal inertia, which the Yarkovsky effects require. However, unlike the Yarkovsky effects, which produce secular orbital changes over millions or billions of years, the change in an asteroid's orbital elements from orbital YORP operates only over the precession timescale of the orbit or of the asteroid's spin axis; this is generally only thousands or tens of thousands of years. Thus while the orbital YORP timescale is too short for an asteroid to secularly journey very far, it is long enough to warrant investigation with respect to 99942 Apophis, which might conceivably impact the Earth in 2036. A near-maximal orbital YORP effect is found by assuming Apophis is without thermal inertia and is shaped like a hemisphere, with its spin axis lying in the orbital plane. With these assumptions orbital YORP can change its along-track position by up to ±245 km, which is comparable to Yarkovsky effects. Though Apophis' shape, thermal properties, and spin axis orientation are currently unknown, the practical upper and lower limits are liable to be much less than the ±245 km extremes. Even so, the uncertainty in position is still likely to be much larger than the 0.5 km “keyhole” Apophis must pass through during its close approach in 2029 in order to strike the Earth in 2036.  相似文献   

12.
The origin of the Rio Cuarto crater field, Argentina has been widely debated since the early 1990s when it was first brought to public attention. In a binary on–off sense, however, the craters are either of a terrestrial origin or they formed via a large asteroid impact. While there are distinct arguments in favour of the former option being the correct interpretation, it is the latter possibility that is principally investigated here, and five distinct impact formation models are described. Of the impact scenarios it is found that the most workable model, although based upon a set of fine-tuned initial conditions, is that in which a large, 100–150-m initial diameter asteroid, entered Earth’s atmosphere on a shallow angle path that resulted in temporary capture. In this specific situation a multiple-thousand kilometer long flight path enables the asteroid to survive atmospheric passage, without suffering significant fragmentation, and to impact the ground as a largely coherent mass. Although the odds against such an impact occurring are extremely small, the crater field may nonetheless be interpreted as having potentially formed via a very low-angle, smaller than 5° to the horizon, impact with a ground contact speed of order 5 km/s. Under this scenario, as originally suggested by Schultz and Lianza (Nature 355:234, 1992), the largest of the craters (crater A) in the Rio Cuarto structure was produced in the initial ground impact, and the additional, smaller craters are interpreted as being formed through the down-range transport of decapitated impactor material and crater A ejecta.  相似文献   

13.
J. ?i?ka  D. Vokrouhlický 《Icarus》2011,211(1):511-518
Near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis currently resides among the top positions on the list of objects with small, yet non-zero impact probability with the Earth. For that reason an unusual observational and theoretical effort has been dedicated to precisely characterize its future orbit. Here we discuss orbital perturbation of Apophis due to incident and reflected solar radiation pressure (SRP). We both revisit recent analytical estimate of the SRP effects for this body and also formulate a numerical approach allowing us to compute the SRP orbital perturbation under general assumptions. Contrary to some previous results, we show that SRP has a much smaller effect on the Apophis trajectory than does the thermal re-radiation force which produces the Yarkovsky effect. When the Yarkovsky effect becomes constrained enough in the future, our approach may be used to improve the orbit determination for this asteroid.  相似文献   

14.
Gerald G. Schaber 《Icarus》1980,43(3):302-333
A prelimanary geologic map, representing 26.5% of the surface of Io, has been compiled using best-resolution (0.5 to 5 km/line pair) Voyager 1 images and (as a base) a preliminary pictorial map of Io. Nine volcanic units are identified, including materials of mountains (1.9% of total area), plains (49.6%), flows (31.1%), cones (0.1%), and crater vents (4.0%), in addition to seven types of structural features. Photogeologic evidence indicates a dominantly silicate composition for the mountain material, which supports heights of at least 9 ± 1 km. Sulfur flows of diverse viscosity and sulfur-silicate mixtures are thought to compose the pervasive plains. Pit crater and shield crater vent wall scarps reach heights of 2 km and layered plains boundary scarps have estimated heights of 150 to 1700 m; such scarps indicate a material with considerable strenght. A cumulative, volcanic crater size-frequency distribution plot has been prepared using 170 mapped Ionian vents with diameters > 14 km; the shape and slope of the curve are like those for impact craters on other bodies in the solar system, attesting to a similar nonrandom distribution to crater diameters and a surplus of small craters. Io's equatorial zone has six times the number of vents per unit area as the south polar zone. No craters of unequivocal impact origin have been identified on Io to date. A total of 151 lineaments and grabens are recognized with four dominant azimuthal trends forming two nearly orthogonal sets spaces 110° apart (N 85° E, N 25° W and N 45° E, N 55°W). The mapped area lies within the longitudinal zone (250 to 323°) of least-abundant SO2 frost, indicating that other sulfurous components dominate the upper surface layers in this area.  相似文献   

15.
The results of improving the orbit accuracy for the asteroid Apophis and the circumstances of its approach to Earth in 2029 are described. Gravitational perturbations from all of the major planets and Pluto, Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta are taken into account in the equations of motion of the asteroid. Relativistic perturbations from the Sun and perturbations due to the oblateness of the Sun and Earth and due to the light pressure are also included in the model. Perturbations from the Earth and Moon are considered separately. The coordinates of the perturbing bodies are calculated using DE405. The phase correction and the gravitational deflection of light are taken into account. The numerical integration of the equations of motion and equations in variations is performed by the 15th-order Everhart method. The error of the numerical integration over the 2005–2029 interval, estimated using forward and backward computations, is not more than 3 × 10?11 AU. Improved coordinates and velocities at epoch JD2454200.5 (April 10, 2007) were obtained applying the weighted leastsquares fit. For the period from March 15, 2004, to August 16, 2006, 989 optical and 7 radar observations were used. The resulting system represents the optical observations with an error of 0.37 (66 conditional equations were rejected). The residuals of the radar observations are an order, or more, smaller than their errors. The system of Apophis’ elements and the estimates of their precision obtained in this study are in perfect agreement with the results published by other authors. The minimum Apophis-Earth distance is about 38 200 km on April 13, 2029. This estimate agrees to within 20 km with those calculated based on other published systems of elements. The effect of some model components on the minimum distance is estimated.  相似文献   

16.
On December 20, 2004 the Minor Planet Center issued the Minor Planet Electronic Circular (MPEC) 2004-Y25 announcing the discovery of a new Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) with designation 2004 MN4. Only two days later, when the Christmas holidays were about to begin, it was already apparent that this asteroid, currently known as Apophis, would be notorious: our close-approach monitoring system, CLOMON2, was already showing a Virtual Impactor (VI) in 2029 reaching the level 2 in the Torino Scale, the first asteroid to reach that level since our monitoring system had been operational. However, this was just the beginning of what it was to come in the subsequent days. In this paper we will give an overview of the NEODyS-CLOMON2 system and provide the details on how Apophis’ collision scenario evolved, the way NEODyS’ team handled it and the crazy 2004’ Christmas holidays we had due to this unexpected guest.  相似文献   

17.
The spectral-frequency method (Busarev et al., 2007b) allowed us to obtain data on 16 sizes of hydrosilicate spots on the surface of the asteroid 4 Vesta. Large sizes (800 and 750 km) show clusters of small hydrosilicate spots near a well-known crater. Small spots of 50–13 km cover more than 50% of the surface. The predominant number of small-sized spots suggests their recent origin. Our data confirm the presence of water combinations on the surface of 4 Vesta and allow us to draw a conclusion on their recent appearance in collisions of this asteroid with primitive bodies arriving from the zone of Jupiter.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract— We report results of delay‐Doppler observations of 1999 JM8 with the Goldstone 8560 MHz (3.5 cm) and Arecibo 2380 MHz (13 cm) radars over 18 days in July‐August 1999. The images place thousands of pixels on the asteroid and achieve range resolutions as fine as 15 m/pixel. The images reveal an asymmetric, irregularly shaped object with a typical overall dimension within 20% of 7 km. If we assume that 1999 JM8's effective diameter is 7 km, then the absolute magnitude, 15.15, and the average Goldstone radar cross section, 2.49 km2, correspond to optical and radar albedos of 0.02 and 0.06, establishing that 1999 JM8 is a dark object at optical and radar wavelengths. The asteroid is in a non‐principal axis spin state that, although not yet well determined, has a dominant periodicity of ?7 days. However, images obtained between July 31 and August 9 show apparent regular rotation of features from day to day, suggesting that the rotation state is not far from principal axis rotation. 1999 JM8 has regions of pronounced topographic relief, prominent facets several kilometers in extent, numerous crater‐like features between ?100 m and 1.5 km in diameter, and features whose structural nature is peculiar. Arecibo images provide the strongest evidence to date for a circular polarization ratio feature on any asteroid. Combined optical and radar observations from April 1990 to December 2000 permit computation of planetary close approach times to within ± 10 days over the interval from 293 to at least 2907, one of the longest spans for any potentially hazardous asteroid. Integration of the orbit into the past and future shows close approaches to Earth, Mars, Ceres, and Vesta, but the probability of the object impacting Earth is zero for at least the next nine centuries.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract— Using detailed geological, petrographic, geochemical, and geographical constraints we have performed numerical modeling studies that relate the Steinheim crater (apparent diameter Da = 3.8 km), the Ries crater (Da = 24 km) in southern Germany, and the moldavite (tektite) strewn field in Bohemia and Moravia (Czech Republic), Lusatia (East Germany), and Lower Austria. The moldavite strewn field extends from ～200 to 450 km from the center of the Ries to the east‐northeast forming a fan with an angle of ～57°. An oblique impact of a binary asteroid from a west‐southwest direction appears to explain the locations of the craters and the formation and distribution of the moldavites. The impactor must have been a binary asteroid with two widely separated components (some 1.5 and 0.15 km in diameter, respectively). We carried out a series of three‐dimensional hydrocode simulations of a Ries‐type impact. The results confirm previous results suggesting that impacts around 30–50° (from the horizontal) are the most favorable angles for near‐surface melting, and, consequently for the formation of tektites. Finally, modeling of the motion of impact‐produced tektite particles through the atmosphere produces, in the downrange direction, a narrow‐angle distribution of the moldavites tektites in a fan like field with an angle of ～75°. An additional result of modeling the motion of melt inside and outside the crater is the preferred flow of melt from the main melt zone of the crystalline basement downrange towards the east‐northeast rim. This explains perfectly the occurrence of coherent impact melt bodies (some tens of meters in size) in a restricted zone of the downrange rim of the Ries crater. The origin of these melt bodies, which represent chemically a mixture of crystalline basement rocks similar to the main melt mass contained (as melt particles <0.5 m in size) in the suevite, do not occur at any other portion of the Ries crater rim and remained enigmatic until now. Although the calculated distribution of moldavites still deviates to some degree from the known distribution, our results represent an important step toward a better understanding of the origin and distribution of the high‐velocity surface melts and the low‐velocity, deep‐seated melt resulting from an oblique impact on a stratified target.  相似文献   

20.
The known close approach of Asteroid (99942) Apophis in April 2029 provides the opportunity for the case study of a potentially hazardous asteroid in advance of its encounter. The visible to near-infrared (0.55 to 2.45 μm) reflectance spectrum of Apophis is compared and modeled with respect to the spectral and mineralogical characteristics of likely meteorite analogs. Apophis is found to be an Sq-class asteroid that most closely resembles LL ordinary chondrite meteorites in terms of spectral characteristics and interpreted olivine and pyroxene abundances, although we cannot rule out some degree of partial melting. A meteorite analog allows some estimates and conjectures of Apophis' possible range of physical properties such as the grain density and micro-porosity of its constituent material. Composition and size similarities of Apophis with (25143) Itokawa suggest a total porosity of 40% as a “current best guess” for Apophis. Applying these parameters to Apophis yields a mass estimate of 2×1010 kg with a corresponding energy estimate of 375 Mt for its potential hazard. Substantial unknowns, most notably the total porosity, allow uncertainties in these mass and energy estimates to be as large as factors of two or three.  相似文献   

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