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1.
《Coastal Engineering》2004,51(4):277-296
A cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting system that has been developed for the northern Bay of Bengal is presented. The developed system includes a cyclone forecasting model that uses statistical models for forecasting of the cyclone track and maximum wind speed, and an analytical cyclone model for generation of cyclone wind and pressure fields. A data assimilation system has been developed that allows updating of the cyclone parameters based on air pressure and wind speed observations from surface meteorological stations. The forecasted air pressure and wind fields are used as input in a 2D hydrodynamic model for forecasting storm surge levels and associated flooding. An efficient uncertainty prediction procedure based on Harr's point estimation method has been implemented as part of the forecasting system for prediction of the uncertainties of the forecasted storm surge levels and inundation areas caused by the uncertainties in the cyclone track and wind speed forecasts. The developed system is applied on a severe cyclone that hit Bangladesh in April 1991. The simulated storm surge and associated flooding are highly sensitive to the cyclone data. The cyclone data assimilation system provides a more accurate cyclone track when the cyclone approaches the coastline, which results in a significant improvement of the storm surge and flood predictions. Application of the uncertainty prediction procedure shows that the large uncertainties of the cyclone track and intensity forecasts result in large uncertainties of the forecasted storm surge levels and flood extend. The forecasting system shows very good forecasting capabilities up to 24 h before the actual landfall.  相似文献   

2.
In the city of Venice, where the average altitude is only a few tens of centimetres, there has been a dangerous increase in the frequency of flooding during the past few decades.Since 1872, the average increase in flooding levels (“acqua alta”) has been about 40cm: 27cm of this is due to the local rise in mean sea-level (of which some 14cm are related to man-induced subsidence of land, and 3–7cm to geological factors), and at least 14cm are caused by hydrodynamical factors, of which about 10cm can be ascribed to man-induced tidal changes. These latter are due above all to the dredging of deep artificial channels, the reclamation of wide areas of tidal flats, and the diking of fish ponds (“valli”), which have changed the ratio between the surface of the lagoon and that of the inlets. Since the latest modification (1963–1969), the lagoon has been open to large oil tankers, thereby allowing an easier entry of storm surges arising out at sea.Indeed an incompatibility exists between the accessibility of very large boats to the lagoon and the safeguard of Venice. Several engineering projects have been proposed with a view to improving the present critical situation. These projects include underground injections to raise the islands, the construction of new embankments, a reduction in the size of the passes, new access to wide areas for the tide, and the construction of flood gates at the passes. The reliability and effects of these projects are analysed and discussed.In conclusion, the removal of the oil terminal from the lagoon and a stricter control of water pollution are considered the most urgent preliminary actions for a long term solution of the flooding problem. This would enable a decrease in the exchanges between the lagoon and the sea, without, however, reducing the depth of the navigation channels to levels inconsistent with most of the present non-oil traffic. A final measure would be the construction of mobile gates at the passes which would permanently protect the lagoon against flooding.The solution put forward here differs however from the project proposed by a group of experts appointed by the Italian government, which aims at keeping the oil terminal inside the lagoon, thus maintaining the navigation channels at depths which increase hydrodynamic effects and make any sedimetological equilibrium in the lagoon impossible.  相似文献   

3.
Recognising the importance of understanding sediment dynamics to evaluate the status of a coastal lagoon environment, this work has been focused on the investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes occurring in such basins. In order to describe the lagoon system, a modelling approach combining hydrodynamics, waves and sediment dynamics has been developed. The framework of the numerical model consists of a finite element hydrodynamic model, a third generation finite element spectral wave model and a sediment transport and morphodynamic model for both cohesive and non-cohesive sediments. The model adopts the finite element technique for spatial integration, which has the advantage to describe more accurately complicated bathymetry and irregular boundaries for shallow water areas. The developed model has been applied to test cases and to a very shallow tidal lagoon, the Venice Lagoon, Italy. Numerical results show good agreement with water level, waves and turbidity measurements collected in several monitoring stations inside the Lagoon of Venice. Such a model represents an indispensable tool in analysing coastal problems and assessing morphological impacts of human interference.  相似文献   

4.
台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型，开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟，模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率，采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造，改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上，计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件，并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型，计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上，非常适合风暴潮集合预报，并且可以提供更好的决策产品。  相似文献   

5.
Sediment stability in the shallow Venice Lagoon was investigated by means of numerical modelling. Results from a hydrodynamic model allowed for the determination of the wave climate and bottom effective parameters so that simulations with a Lagrangian model for suspended particulate matter could be performed. A spring–neap cycle in summer 1998 was chosen as integration period since data for calibration and verification were collected within the European project F-ECTS between summer 1998 and spring 1999. Deposition on shallow mud flats as well as short term erosion during a strong wind event were reproduced and mass balances for two areas computed. A relation of patterns of SPM in the water and in the sediment was found and can be ascribed to the displacement of material during storm events from shallow areas to the bottom of very small channels. Assuming about 10 to 14 storm events during the year comparable to the Bora event during the integration time, estimates for long-term trends of sediment loss on shallow flats by Day et al. [Day, J.W., Rybczyk, J., Scarton, F., Rismondo, A., Are, D., Cecconi, G., 1999. Soil accretionary dynamics, sea-level rise and the survival of wetlands in Venice Lagoon: a field and modelling approach. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 49, 607–628] are met by the simulation results. Evidently, long-term sediment evolution of the lagoon is therefore not dominated by the average (residual) processes that occur in the lagoon, but by the few peak events that happen randomly over the year.  相似文献   

6.
A down-scaled operational oceanographic system is developed for the coastal waters of Korea using a regional ocean modeling system(ROMS).The operational oceanographic modeling system consists of atmospheric and hydrodynamic models.The hydrodynamic model,ROMS,is coupled with wave,sediment transport,and water quality modules.The system forecasts the predicted results twice a day on a 72 h basis,including sea surface elevation,currents,temperature,salinity,storm surge height,and wave information for the coastal waters of Korea.The predicted results are exported to the web-GIS-based coastal information system for real-time dissemination to the public and validation with real-time monitoring data using visualization technologies.The ROMS is two-way coupled with a simulating waves nearshore model,SWAN,for the hydrodynamics and waves,nested with the meteorological model,WRF,for the atmospheric surface forcing,and externally nested with the eutrophication model,CE-QUAL-ICM,for the water quality.The operational model,ROMS,was calibrated with the tidal surface observed with a tide-gage and verified with current data observed by bottom-mounted ADCP or AWAC near the coastal waters of Korea.To validate the predicted results,we used real-time monitoring data derived from remote buoy system,HF-radar,and geostationary ocean color imager(GOCI).This down-scaled operational coastal forecasting system will be used as a part of the Korea operational oceanographic system(KOOS) with other operational oceanographic systems.  相似文献   

7.
Barbamarco Lagoon (area = 7 km2) is in the Po River Delta, adjoining the Northern Adriatic Sea, and supports a commercially valuable clam (Tapes philippinarum) fishery. This study investigated interactions of the lagoon with adjacent coastal waters and inland riverine inputs by modelling both the lagoon and the Northern Adriatic Sea, using a coupled three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic-ecological model (ELCOM-CAEDYM) adapted to include the clam population. The clam model accounted for carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) biomass in the benthos through parameterisations for filtration, excretion, egestion, respiration, mortality, and harvesting. Multiple clam size classes were included in a new population dynamics sub-model. Output from the coupled model was validated against hydrodynamic and water quality data from intensive field sampling and routine monitoring. Time scales of tidal flushing, primary production and clam grazing were investigated with the model to demonstrate that food supply to clam populations is dominated by phytoplankton inputs from the Northern Adriatic Sea. Effects of clam cultivation on nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass in Barbamarco Lagoon were primarily localised, with strong tidal flushing minimising impacts of clam filtration on lagoon-wide nutrient concentrations at current clam stocking levels. Clam populations were found to alter the cycling of nutrients in the system, causing the lagoon to become a net sink for particulate organic matter and to export dissolved organic matter to the adjacent sea via tidal flushing. Ecosystem health and sensitivity of nutrient cycles to clam cultivation are important considerations for the long term sustainable management and potential expansion of the fishery.  相似文献   

8.
Aim of this paper is to develop simple tools for mapping — at regional and local scale — coastal areas exposed at flooding risk. A two-step simplified procedure for coastal management purposes is presented and is applied to Emilia Romagna (Italy), whose low and sandy coast faces the relatively mild Northern Adriatic Sea. The procedure is composed by a 1D conceptual model to determine flooding probability along wide coastal stretches and by a more detailed 2D Level II reliability method, that provides local quantitative statistical maps of inland flooding propagation. Qualitative maps obtained by literature approaches and quantitative results of flooding probability along the littoral show a good agreement. A coastal flood state indicator is proposed to rapidly assess coastal hazard.  相似文献   

9.
Total copper (Cu(T)), copper ion activity (pCu) and the copper complexation capacity (CuCC) were determined in samples of seawater collected in July 2003 from the Venice Lagoon. Cu(T) and CuCC showed considerable spatial variability: Cu(T) ranged from 1.8 to 70.0nM, whereas the CuCC varied from 195 to 573nM. pCu values varied from 11.6 to 12.6 and are consistent with those previously reported in estuarine and coastal areas (10.9-14.1). The range of Cu(T) values compares well with those reported in the past in the lagoon and in the adjacent Adriatic Sea. The highest concentrations of Cu(T) were found in samples collected near the industrial area of Porto Marghera, whereas the lowest were measured near the Chioggia and Malamocco inlets, where an intense tidally-driven renewal of seawater takes place. Although CuCC showed a high degree of spatial variability, the values recorded in the Venice Lagoon are comparable to those reported in other estuarine systems. In addition, CuCC was positively correlated with dissolved organic carbon (DOC), suggesting that organic ligands responsible for Cu complexation are part of the bulk organic matter pool in the lagoon. The CuCC:Cu(T) molar ratio was, on average 55:1, indicating that a large excess of complexation capacity exists in the Venice Lagoon. The high levels of CuCC and the narrow range of pCu indicates the importance of the role played by organic ligands in controlling the free ion Cu concentrations in the lagoon, and as a consequence, regulating its availability and/or toxicity.  相似文献   

10.
A mass balance of the naturally occurring short-lived radium isotopes (223,224Ra) in the Venice Lagoon was conducted by an integrated approach combining the directly estimated individual Ra contributions and hydrodynamic model results. Hydrodynamic data allows for the calculation of the Ra mass balance in sub-sections of the Venice Lagoon (boxes), which are characterized by physically homogeneous properties, instead of investigating the entire lagoon. Utilizing this method, both the seasonal and the spatial variability of the submarine groundwater discharge in the Venice Lagoon have been estimated. Between 14–83 × 109 L d− 1 of water were calculated to flow across the sediment–sea interface, corresponding to 5–28 times the mean annual river input. The submarine groundwater discharge estimates were correlated with the residence time calculation to better understand spatial and seasonal variation.  相似文献   

11.
Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions.When storm surges coincide with high tide,coastal flooding can occur.Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide.This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau.The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan.Model skill was assessed based on measured records,and the results are presented in details.At 3-minute resolution,tides were generally well predicted,with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9.Storms(winds and depressions) were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model.Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment.The surges were well predicted compared with the records.  相似文献   

12.
The present study investigates the different uses and the functional roles of shallow habitats for fish fauna in the Venice Lagoon, by applying the functional guilds approach. Temporal (seasons) and spatial (location) changes within the lagoon show different habitat uses by fish assemblages, not influenced by local factors. Unvegetated mud habitats (salt marsh creeks and sub-tidal mud flats) and sparsely vegetated (seagrass) habitats show a common nursery role, especially for marine migrant fishes; but, contrary to other similar areas elsewhere shallow seagrass beds in the Venice Lagoon do not have a primary nursery role. This latter habitat has a more important role as a spawning ground for a resident, highly specialized component of the fish community. The habitat uses and their role to fish fauna illustrate the balance between predation risk and foraging profitability, as major factors structuring the fish assemblages. Spatial effects at a larger scale also highlight general characteristics of the fish assemblages in the Venice Lagoon. These indicate differences between the Northern sub-basin and the other two lagoon sub-basins, due to differences in the hydrodynamic regime, habitats distribution, and contributions from land and sea.  相似文献   

13.
The sequence-stratigraphic investigation by Very High-Resolution (VHR) seismic profiles allowed recognition of the detailed architecture of the late Pleistocene and Holocene succession of the Venice area. In this way deposits previously known by the analyses of scattered cores, mainly taken along the lagoon margin and the littoral strips, have been correlated at regional scale including the near offshore sector and the result has pointed out the lateral variability of the stratal architecture. Late Pleistocene deposits consist of an aggrading floodplain and fluvial channel fills accumulated during decreasing eustatic sea level, and they are coeval with offlapping forced regressive marine wedges in the Central Adriatic basin. The Holocene sequence is composed of three main seismic units separated by major stratal surfaces. Unit 1 (up to 9 m thick) is formed by channelized deposits separated by areas showing sub-horizontal and hummocky reflectors, and is bounded at the base by a surface that records prolonged conditions of subaerial exposure and at the top by a flatter surface resulting from erosion by marine processes. Deposits of Unit 1 are interpreted as estuarine and distributary channel fills, and back-barrier strata. Unit 2 is well distinguishable from Unit 1 only in the offshore area and at the barrier island bounding the Venice Lagoon, and is composed of a prograding marine wedge (up to 10 m thick) that interacts laterally with ebb tidal deltas. Unit 3 consists of a tidal channel complex and inlet deposits, which testify the evolution of the lagoon area. Tidal channels are entrenched in the lagoon mud flat (coeval with Units 1–2) and cut the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary in several places.Following current sequence-stratigraphic concepts, the Holocene sequence is composed of a paralic transgressive systems tract (TST) (Unit 1) overlying a sequence boundary (the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary) and overlain by a marine highstand systems tract (HST) (Unit 2) in seaward locations and by highstand lagoonal deposits landwards. TST and HST are separated by a downlap surface that is amalgamated with a wave ravinement surface in several places. Unit 3 is coeval with the upper part of Unit 2, and its development has been favoured by human interventions, which led to a transgression limited to the lagoon area.Local factors during the deposition, i.e. subsidence, sediment supply, physiography, and current/wave regimes, led to a significant lateral variability in the architecture of the Holocene sequence, as evidenced by the extreme thickness variation of the TST along both depositional strike and dip. The HST, instead, shows less pronounced strike variations in the stratal architecture. Also, present data clearly evidence that the human impact has a great relevance in influencing the late Holocene sedimentation.  相似文献   

14.
左浩  高抒 《海洋通报》2005,24(1):8-17
采用一个包括陆地淡水径流和风暴潮影响的模型计算了海南省博鳌港的洪水水位。模型中的外海潮汐考虑K^1和O^1分潮，风暴增水和河流流量的变化过程采用峰值函数的形式模拟，取得了与实测结果相近的计算结果。模拟实验表明，洪水水位峰值与河流洪峰流量，风暴增水峰值，系统的过水断面形状以及洪水历时的长短等因素有关。对于博鳌港口门通航条件整治，采用复合的梯形过水断面最为合适，因为相对于天然的口门过水断面，复合梯形断面能使湾内的最高洪水水位下降约20％。  相似文献   

15.
Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.  相似文献   

16.
覆盖中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮模型的研究及适用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
精细化风暴潮预报是目前风暴潮预报重点发展方向之一,本文首次建立起了一个覆盖整个中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮数值模型,克服了以往分区域数值模型的不足,该模型在中国沿海地区的分辨率达到300m左右。模型采用了并行计算,并对2012年和2013年灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了数值检验,计算精度和计算所用时间都能够满足业务化运行的要求。本文同时还根据中国气象局、美国国家气象局等5家主要台风预报机构给出的24h台风预报,对2013年度灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了24h数值预报检验,检验结果表明:根据中国气象局台风登陆前24h预报可以得到更准确的风暴潮预报结果,其预报结果优于其他各家预报结果。该结论可以为今后的台风风暴潮预报中台风路径的选取提供重要的参考。  相似文献   

17.
Barbamarco Lagoon is a small lagoon adjoining the Northern Adriatic Sea and is the site of a commercially valuable clam (Tapes philippinarum) fishery. A three-dimensional (3D) coupled hydrodynamic–ecological model was applied to the lagoon with the objective of assessing impacts on clam food supply, commercial harvests and water quality of different clam rearing strategies, lagoon morphologies and flow regimes. Harvest and net growth to seeding ratios, total harvest value, clearance efficiencies and clam satiety were used to quantify the commercial success of different management strategies, while bottom dissolved oxygen concentrations were used as an indicator of ecosystem health. Increasing exchange with the Northern Adriatic Sea or increasing freshwater inputs into the lagoon improved clam food supply and increased both harvest production and ecosystem health in model simulations of the system. Results indicated that the high spatial and temporal variability of clam production and water quality responses must be considered for a holistic assessment of the outcomes of strategies in the context of ecological and production carrying capacity.  相似文献   

18.
The settlement and development of Québec’s maritime coastline has generally taken place without consideration for coastal dynamics and coastal hazards. Consequently, fighting coastal erosion has become a necessity. Until now, the construction of rigid walls and encroachments has been the preferred approach to the problem. In the Chaleur Bay region, coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to erosion and flooding because a number of residential, commercial and transportation infrastructures have been installed on beach terraces and sand spits. Recent storms, such as the storm of December 2, 2005, have made possible a better understanding of how these rigid defence structures amplify the effects of storm surges and waves. These structures drive the sand away from the coast, lowering beach levels and even causing beaches to vanish entirely from the areas situated in front of the defence structures. The end result is a weakening of the natural capacity of these coastal systems to absorb the energy of waves and a greater risk of coastal flooding. An integrated approach using local knowledge on the one hand, along with LIDAR surveys and a DGPS system on the other hand, have made possible to map the levels reached by flooding at the time of the storm. The results indicate that such levels vary greatly in spatial terms and that the difference between the levels actually reached and the water level measured by tide gauge can be as much as 2 m; a difference that is due to anthropogenic perturbations. This raises questions concerning the safety and the reference levels used for mapping coastal flooding risk. Taking into account knowledge of local communities, analysis of water levels, geomorphological indicators and aggravating anthropogenic factors, an approach and basic criteria are put forward with a view of establishing a reference level for the mapping of flood risk that can be used by community land-use planners.  相似文献   

19.
为提高厦门防御台风风暴潮灾害风险的能力,辅助政府部门开展海洋防灾减灾工作,文章基于风暴潮数值模型开发厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统,并以1521号台风为例模拟其淹没风险。研究结果表明：风暴潮数值模型能较好地刻画影响厦门的台风风暴潮过程,满足风暴潮淹没风险分析需求;厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统采用按警戒潮位预警和按高程预警2种方法分析风暴潮淹没风险,可对影响程度不同的岸段采取不同的预警和防御措施;基于数值模型的风暴潮淹没范围与实地调查区域的淹没范围基本一致,可对未开展实地调查区域的淹没范围进行补充;今后须进一步完善厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统,同时建立厦门风暴潮风险评价体系。  相似文献   

20.
A number of biochemical markers and a physiological index were measured in mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis, transplanted or native to five different contaminated sites in the lagoon of Venice. Mussels from Pellestrina, a reference site in the adjacent Adriatic Sea, were transplanted for 6 weeks to areas of the lagoon where indigenous mussels were also collected. As biochemical indices, superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase, aldehyde dehydrogenase (ADH) and NADPH cytochrome c reductase (NADPHcred) were measured in mussel digestive gland; survival in air as a physiological index was also determined. Biomarker responses varied among sites and between indigenous and transplanted animals. Significant induction of catalase and SOD was shown in animals transplanted to the urban sites of Salute and Chioggia, respectively. In indigenous mussels, induction of SOD and NADPHcred was seen in animals from the polluted site of Treporti and the heavily contaminated industrial area of Marghera. The overall biochemical data indicate significantly higher activity for ADH in transplanted animals in comparison with indigenous ones which, in contrast, present an increase in SOD. As regard survival in air, control mussels did not seem to be healthier in comparison either with transplanted or indigenous ones, suggesting that pollution has no effect on this parameter.  相似文献   

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