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1.
Roberto A. T. Gomes Renato F. Guimarães Osmar A. Carvalho Jr. Nelson F. Fernandes Eurípedes A. Vargas Jr. Éder S. Martins 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(2):197-209
In tropical areas, mass movements are common phenomena, especially during periods of heavy rainfall, which frequently take
place in the summer season. These phenomena have caused loss of life and serious damage to infrastructure and properties.
The most prominent of these phenomena are landslides that can produce debris flows. Thus, this article aims at determining
affected areas using a model to predict landslide prone areas (SHALSTAB) combined with an empirical model designed to define
the debris flow travel distance and area of deposition. The methodology of this work consists of the following steps: (a)
elaboration of a digital elevation model (DEM), (b) application of the deterministic SHALSTAB model to locate the landslide
prone areas, (c) identification of the debris flow travel distance and area of deposition, and (d) mapping of the affected
areas (landslides and debris flows). This work was developed in an area in which many mass movements occurred after intense
rainfall during the summer season (February 1996) in the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. All of the scars produced
by that event were mapped, allowing for validation of the applied models. The model results show that the mapped landslide
locations can adequately be simulated by the model. 相似文献
2.
Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property
damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into
risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe
the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not
always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites,
Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped
in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows
in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W
and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using
a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded
area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most
appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological
and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow
hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized
by similar geology, morphology and climate. 相似文献
3.
四川省都江堰市龙池地区泥石流危险性评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
汶川地震灾区震后泥石流灾害较震前活跃,对灾区泥石流危险性进行评价是灾后重建过程中合理防灾减灾的基础工作。通过研究泥石流灾害事件中的泥石流规模、泥石流沟堆积扇面积及相应的灾害损失等基础资料,提出以泥石流在泥石流沟堆积扇上的平均堆积厚度替代泥石流规模作为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。用该方法对汶川震区都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河流域2010年"8.13"泥石流事件中的29条沟谷型泥石流进行危险性评价,评价结果中9条为高度危险,12条为中度危险,8条为低度危险。用以泥石流规模为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法进行对比评价,2种评价方法中有65.5%的泥石流的危险性评价结果一致。以泥石流沟堆积扇平均堆积厚度为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法更能突出规模对泥石流综合危险度的贡献,能更好地反映小泥石流流域和小泥石流堆积扇的泥石流在中小规模的泥石流总量下的危险程度。 相似文献
4.
基于GIS泥石流二维数值模拟 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为了模拟泥石流的运动规律,预测降雨诱发的泥石流到达距离和泛滥范围,减少和避免泥石流引起的灾害,给出了一个模拟泥石流运动的二维数值模型。由于GIS中的栅格网络数据可以直接作为有限差分的网格,二维数值模型可用有限差分来求解。模型应用于2003年7月20日发生在日本九州南部熊本县水俣市宝川区集村的泥石流。模拟再现了这个真实泥石流的传播和泛滥的过程,并与实际检测结果很吻合,验证了这个深度积分的二维数值模型的有效性和实用性。模型可用于预测泥石流的流动距离和泛滥范围,以及泛滥范围内的危险房屋和路段,也可以用于泥石流灾害的风险性分析。 相似文献
5.
The mobility of gravity-driven granular flows such as debris flows or pyroclastic density currents are extremely sensitive
to topographic changes, such as break in slopes, obstacles, or ravine deviations. In hazard assessment, computer codes can
reproduce past events and evaluate hazard zonation based on inundation limits of simulated flows over a natural terrain. Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) is a common input for the simulation algorithm and its accuracy to reproduce past flows is crucial.
In this work, we use TITAN2D code to reproduce past block-and-ash flows at Colima volcano (Mexico) over DEMs with different
cell size (5, 10, 30, 50, and 90 m) in order to illustrate the influences of the resolution on the numeric simulations. Our
results show that topographic resolution significantly affects the flow path and runout. Also, we found that simulations of
past flows with the same input parameters (such as the basal friction angle) over topography with different resolutions resulted
in different flow paths, areas, and thickness of the simulated flows. In particular, the simulations performed with the 5-
and 10-m DEMs produced similar results. Also, we obtained consistent simulation results for the 30- and 50-m DEMs. However,
for the coarser 90-m DEM results are largely different and inaccurate. We recommend generating a benchmark table in order
to acquire characteristic values for the basal friction angle of studied events. In case of rugged topographies, a DEM with
high resolution should be used for more confident results. 相似文献
6.
汶川震区北川9.24暴雨泥石流特征研究 总被引：32，自引：1，他引：31
2008年9月24日汶川震区的北川县暴雨导致区域性泥石流发生,这次9.24暴雨泥石流灾害导致了42人死亡,对公路和其他基础设施造成严重损毁。本研究采用地面调查和遥感解译方法分析地震与暴雨共同作用下的泥石流特征,获取的气象数据用于分析泥石流起动的临界雨量条件。本文探讨了研究区泥石流起动和输移过程,并根据野外调查,分析了泥石流形成的降雨、岩石和断层作用,特别是强降雨过程与物源区对泥石流发生的作用。根据应急调查发现北川县境内暴雨诱发的泥石流72处,其分布受岩石类型、发震断层和河流等因素控制。根据对研究区震前和震后泥石流发生的临界雨量和雨强的初步分析,汶川地震后,该区域泥石流起动的前期累积雨量降低了14.8%～22.1%,小时雨强降低25.4 %～31.6%。震区泥石流起动方式主要有二种,一是由于暴雨过程形成的斜坡表层径流导致悬挂于斜坡上的滑坡体表面和前缘松散物质向下输移,进入沟道后转为泥石流过程;二是消防水管效应使沟道水流快速集中,并强烈冲刷沟床中松散固体物质,导致沟床物质起动并形成泥石流过程。调查和分析发现沟内堆积的滑坡坝对泥石流的阻塞明显,溃决后可导致瞬时洪峰流量特别大。研究结果表明了汶川震区已进入一个新的活跃期。因此,应该开展对汶川地震区的泥石流风险评估和监测、早期预警,采取有效的工程措施控制泥石流的发生和危害。 相似文献
7.
地震扰动区存在大量震裂松散坡体,在持续或者密集的降雨条件下极易转化为滑坡灾害。同时,滑坡又会给泥石流提供大量松散固体物质,增加泥石流的危险性。因此,在震区,灾害通常以"链"的形式出现,比单一灾种危害性大。为了更有效地对地质灾害危险性进行评价,笔者将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链,综合地加以分析和研究。选择5·12汶川大地震中受灾严重的都江堰市白沙河流域的17条泥石流沟作为研究区,建立滑坡-泥石流危险性评价耦合模型,研究24 h不同降雨量条件下小流域滑坡泥石流危险性的变化。耦合模型包括了坡体稳定性评价模型,水文模型及以泥石流规模、发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域高差、切割密度、不稳定斜坡比为评价因子的泥石流危险性评价统计模型。研究结果表明:随着降雨量的增大,参与泥石流活动的松散物质方量持续增加,但当24 h降雨量超过200 mm后,泥石流沟的危险度等级不再发生变化;17条泥石流沟中4条为中危险度,12条为高危险度,1条为极高危险度。这说明研究区地质灾害问题相当严峻,在多雨季节存在泥石流群发的可能性,直接威胁到居住在泥石流沟附近的人民群众生命财产安全;因此,对于有直接危害对象的高危险度及其以上的泥石流沟,应该按照高等级设防标准进行工程治理及发布预警报。同时也说明,将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链研究具必要性和可行性。 相似文献
8.
Two sets of empirical models for debris flow hazard assessment on gully-specific scale are presented herein, which may be the first step toward developing a formalized procedure for debris flow hazard assessment. Emphasis is put on comparison of the two models between Multiple Factor Composite Assessment Model (MFCAM) and Multivariate Stepwise Regression Assessment Model (MSRAM). From the aspects of data acquisition and model construct, this paper shows the advantages and limitations of two models. From the assessment results, two models are still of uncertainty. Fundamental researches of debris flow hazard, especially the relationship between debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence should be given a priority in future study. 相似文献
9.
Characteristics of spatial distribution of debris flow and the effect of their sediment yield in main downstream of Jinsha River,China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Debris flow hazard posts a big threat to the main downstream of Jinsha River where a number of huge power stations are under
construction. The characteristics of spatial distribution of debris flows and the effect of their sediment yield on the reservoir
areas have been studied. An automatic recognition module was developed to extract the geometry of debris flow channels from
remote sensing data. Spatial distribution pattern of debris flows is obtained through combining the inventory database and
multi-source remote sensing investigation. The distribution of debris flows has high dependency on the various factors including
geology, geomorphology, climate, hydrology and human economic activities. The debris flows distributed in the study area are
characterized by group and pair distribution, uncompleted deposition fans, highly controlled by faults and tectonic activities,
spatial variation between left bank and right bank, and different subdivisions. The sediment yield caused by debris flow activates
is evaluated using multi-year observation data from numerous observation stations. Quantitative studies have been performed
on the relationship between the sediment yield and the debris flow area. A relatively fix ratio of 2.6 (×104 t/km2) has been found in different subdivisions of main downstream area which shows that the source of sediment discharged into
Jinsha River primarily come from debris flow activities. Another ratio is evaluated to represent the transforming possibility
of debris flow materials to bed-sediment load and suspended-sediment load in the river. Based on these findings, the potential
effect of sediment yield caused by debris flows on reservoir areas is discussed. The zonation map shows the different effect
of debris flow sediment on different dam site area which shows a good agreement with variation of debris flow spatial distribution. 相似文献
10.
A size classification for debris flows 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
A 10-fold classification for debris flow size is proposed based on total volume, peak discharge and area inundated by debris. Size classes can be used for regional overview studies where detailed site investigations are either unnecessary, too costly or where the highest hazard and risk creeks need to be identified for further study. They are also useful to compare the regional impact between affected areas and the effects of rainstorms, and they allow lay-people to obtain an understanding of debris flow magnitude and consequences. Finally, different size classes allow the estimation of travel times to points of interest based on empirically derived equations. It is proposed that agencies concerned with debris flows should establish a documentation of debris flow size according to this classification, which serves as a data base for hazard and risk planning. 相似文献
11.
白龙江中上游泥石流发育极为严重,危害、威胁巨大,研究该区泥石流的成灾模式和致灾模式对泥石流灾害防治、国土空间规划、生态文明建设具有重要的科学意义和实践指导价值。文中在分析白龙江流域中上游241条泥石流形成条件的基础上,对泥石流的成灾模式、致灾模式及泥石流防治进行了分析。研究结果表明：（1）泥石流受地形地貌影响显著,高差... 相似文献
12.
泥石流的二维数学模型 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
泥石流是在重力作用下,由砂粒石块和水等组成的固液混合物,是一种发生于山区的复杂的地质灾害现象。泥石流主要是由暴雨诱发引起的,它沿着复杂的三维地形高速流动,具有流体流动的特性。为了模拟泥石流的运动规律,预测降雨诱发的泥石流的到达距离和泛滥范围,减少和避免泥石流引起的灾害,把泥石和雨水组成的固液混合物假定为遵循均匀、连续、不可压缩的、非定常的牛顿流体运动规律。基于质量守恒方程和Naiver-stokes方程,采用深度积分方法,推导出了一个模拟泥石流运动的二维数学模型。所有方程式可用有限差分法来求解。结合GIS,该模型可用于预测泥石流的流动距离和泛滥范围,以及泛滥范围内的危险房屋和路段,也可以用于泥石流灾害的风险性分析。 相似文献
13.
《Quaternary International》2006,142(1):83-95
Debris flows are an important type of geological hazard in Chile, affecting cities, towns and rural areas throughout the country despite the variation in climate regimes. In this summary paper, recent debris flows in the cities of Antofagasta and Santiago, in northern and central Chile, and in a rural area near Lake Ranco in central-southern Chile in 1991, 1993 and 2004, respectively, are reviewed. Triggering factors for flow occurrence are identified and different approaches to debris flow hazard assessment and the effects of debris flows on people and the environment are discussed. Furthermore, the relationships between debris flow occurrence and climatic anomalies such as El Niño episodes are analysed. A clear pattern of debris flow generation associated with El Niño events is found for Antofagasta and Santiago. The risk related to debris flows in Chile is of increasing importance because of the continuous expansion of cities to hazardous areas such as alluvial fans. The results show that hazard assessment based on several factors is essential for the implementation of proper prevention and mitigation measures for future debris flow events in the country. 相似文献
14.
This paper presents a neural network (NN) based model to assess the regional hazard degree of debris flows in Lake Qionghai
Watershed, China. The NN model was used as an alternative for the more conventional linear model MFCAM (multi-factor composite
assessment model) in order to effectively handle the nonlinearity and uncertainty inherent in the debris flow hazard analysis.
The NN model was configured using a three layer structure with eight input nodes and one output node, and the number of nodes
in the hidden layer was determined through an iterative process of varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer until an
optimal performance was achieved. The eight variables used to represent the eight input nodes include density of debris flow
gully, degree of weathering of rocks, active fault density, area percentage of slope land greater than 25° of the total land
(APL25), frequency of flooding hazards, average covariance of monthly precipitation by 10 years (ACMP10), average days with
rainfall >25 mm by 10 years (25D10Y), and percentage of cultivated land with slope land greater than 25° of the total cultivated
land (PCL25). The output node represents the hazard-degree ranks (HDR). The model was trained with the 35 sets of data obtained
from previous researches reported in literatures, and an explicit uncertainty analysis was undertaken to address the uncertainty
in model training and prediction. Before the NN model is extrapolated to Lake Qionghai Watershed, a validation case, different
from the above data, is conducted. In addition, the performances of the NN model and the MFCAM were compared. The NN model
predicted that the HDRs of the five sub-watersheds in the Lake Qionghai Watershed were IV, IV, III, III, and IV–V, indicating
that the study area covers normal hazard and severe hazard areas. Based on the NN model results, debris flow management and
economic development strategies in the study are proposed for each sub-watershed. 相似文献
15.
The simulation of geophysical mass flows, including debris flows, rock and snow avalanches, has become an important tool in engineering hazard assessment. Especially the runout and deposition behaviour of observed and expected mass flows are of interest. When being confronted with the evaluation of model performance and sensitivity, there are no standard, objective approaches. In this contribution, we review methods that have been used in literature and outline a new approach to quantitatively compare 2D simulations of observed and simulated deposition pattern. Our proposed method is based on the comparison of normalized partial areas which can be plotted in a ternary diagram to visualize the degree of over- and under-estimation. Results can be summed up by a single metric between -1 (no fit) and 1 (perfect fit). This study shall help developers and end-users of simulation models to better understand model behaviour and provides a possibility for comparison of model results, independent of simulation platform and type of mass flow. 相似文献
16.
Hazard assessment of debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area,South West China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Longxi river basin with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of South West China, belongs to the seismic area of the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Lots of loose co-seismic materials were present on the slopes, which in later years served as source material for rainfall-induced debris flows. A total of 12 debris flows, were triggered by heavy rainfall on August 13, 2010 in the study area. The FLO-2D numerical analysis software was adopted to simulate debris flows intensity, including movement velocities and maximum flow depths. A comparison of the measured fan spreading with the simulation results, the evaluation parameter Ω was used to verify accuracy of simulation, the results show Ω values ranging between 1.37 and 1.65 indicating relative good simulation results. This study also estimated the flood hydrograph for various recurrence intervals (20, 100, and 200 years, respectively) to perform scenario simulations of debris flows, and followed Swiss and Austrian standards to establish a debris flow hazard classification model on the basis of a combination of the debris flow intensity and the recurrence period. This study distinguishes three hazard classes: low, medium, and high. This proposed approach generated a debris flow hazard distribution map that could be used for disaster prevention in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, South West China. 相似文献
17.
We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.
相似文献18.
DEM(Digial Elevaion Model)是地貌景观高程信息的数字表达,能够直观的反应地形地貌条件。泥石流形成和运动受其流域地貌条件的制约,流域系统信息是地貌发育状态的定量描述;故其值能够作为描述泥石流危险性的一种定量化指标。该研究在对甘肃南部地区白龙江流域的252条泥石流沟的基本参数统计分析基础上,选取其中45条泥石流单沟;通过DEM数据拟合其沟谷高程—面积抛物线方程,计算单沟泥石流流域面积—高程函数积分S;在缺乏流域其他环境因子参数的情况下,定量化描述泥石流危险性。 相似文献
19.
Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prättigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale. 相似文献
20.
城市泥石流灾害预警问题探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
随着城市灾害日益加剧,城市安全引起更广泛的关注,加强防御、控制城市泥石流灾害,增强城市综合减灾抗灾能力是泥石流减灾工作的重点。近几十年来,泥石流预警减灾的作用已得到了高度重视,探讨现代预警技术方法目的在于为城市减灾提供可靠的应急防灾对策。指出改进目前城市泥石流监测预警状况可以大大减轻泥石流暴发带来的损失。在分析国内外泥石流预警研究进展的基础上,针对目前存在的问题,提出当前城市泥石流防灾研究中应重视开展预警工作,注重将泥石流预警与形成机制、新技术方法和减灾决策系统等相结合,其中要特别加强城市数字减灾系统、城市防灾预案,以及城市风险管理和损失评估系统的综合研究。 相似文献