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1.
Short-term polar motion forecasts from earth system modeling data   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Polar motion predictions for up to 10 days into the future are obtained from predicted states of the atmosphere, ocean and continental hydrosphere in a hind-cast experiment covering 2003–2008. High-frequency mass variations within the geophysical fluids are the main cause of wide-band stochastic signals not considered in the presently used statistical prediction approach of IERS bulletin A for polar motion. Taking EAM functions based on forecasted model states, derived from ECMWF medium-range forecasts and corresponding LSDM and OMCT simulations, into account the prediction errors are reduced by 26%. The effective forecast length of the model combination is found to be 7 days, primarily limited by the accuracy of the forecasted atmospheric wind fields. Highest improvements are found for forecast days 4–5 with prediction skill scores of the polar motion excitation functions improved by a factor up to 5. Whereas bulletin A forecasts can explain the observed variance within the first 10 days only by up to 40%, half of the model forecasts reach relative explained variances between 40 and 80%.  相似文献   

2.
Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks including positioning and navigation on Earth and in space. To perform this transformation at the time of observation, that is for real-time applications, accurate predictions of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are needed. The Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC) that started in October 2005 was organized for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of EOP predictions. This paper summarizes the results of the EOP PCC after nearly two and a half years of operational activity. The ultra short-term (predictions to 10 days into the future), short-term (30 days), and medium-term (500 days) EOP predictions submitted by the participants were evaluated by the same statistical technique based on the mean absolute prediction error using the IERS EOP 05 C04 series as a reference. A combined series of EOP predictions computed as a weighted mean of all submissions available at a given prediction epoch was also evaluated. The combined series is shown to perform very well, as do some of the individual series, especially those using atmospheric angular momentum forecasts. A main conclusion of the EOP PCC is that no single prediction technique performs the best for all EOP components and all prediction intervals.  相似文献   

3.
Real-time orbit determination and interplanetary navigation require accurate predictions of the orientation of the Earth in the celestial reference frame and in particular that for Universal Time UT1. Much of the UT1 variations over periods ranging from hours to a couple of years are due to the global atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) forecast series may be used as a proxy index to predict UT1. Our approach taking advantage of this fact is based on an adaptive procedure. It involves incorporating integrations of AAM estimates into UT1 series. The procedure runs on a routine basis using AAM forecasts that are based on the two meteorological series, from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is pertinent to test the prediction method for the period that includes the special CONT08 campaign over which we expect a significant improvement in UT1 accuracy. The studies we carried out were aimed both to compare atmospheric forecasts and analyses, as well as to compare the skills of the UT1 forecasts based on the method with atmospheric forecasts and that using current statistical processes, as applied to the C04 Earth orientation parameters series derived by the International Earth rotation and Reference Systems service (IERS). Here we neglect the oceanic sub-diurnal and diurnal variations, as these signals are expected to be smaller than the UT1-equivalent of 100 μs, when averaged over a few days. The prediction performances for a 2-day forecast are similar, but at a forecast horizon of a week, the AAM-based forecast is roughly twice as skillful as the statistically based one.  相似文献   

4.
We compare nutation time series determined by several International VLBI Service for geodesy and astrometry (IVS) analysis centers. These series were made available through the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). We adjust the amplitudes of the main nutations, including the free motion associated with the free core nutation (FCN). Then, we discuss the results in terms of physics of the Earth’s interior. We find consistent FCN signals in all of the time series, and we provide corrections to IAU 2000A series for a number of nutation terms with realistic errors. It appears that the analysis configuration or the software packages used by each analysis center introduce an error comparable to the amplitude of the prominent corrections. We show that the inconsistencies between series have significant consequences on our understanding of the Earth’s deep interior, especially for the free inner core resonance: they induce an uncertainty on the FCN period of about 0.5 day, and on the free inner core nutation (FICN) period of more than 1000 days, comparable to the estimated period itself. Though the FCN parameters are not so much affected, a 100 % error shows up for the FICN parameters and prevents from geophysical conclusions.  相似文献   

5.
Long-term prediction of polar motion using a combined SSA and ARMA model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
To meet the need for real-time and high-accuracy predictions of polar motion (PM), the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model are combined for short- and long-term PM prediction. According to the SSA results for PM and the SSA prediction algorithm, the principal components of PM were predicted by SSA, and the remaining components were predicted by the ARMA model. In applying this proposed method, multiple sets of PM predictions were made with lead times of two years, based on an IERS 08 C04 series. The observations and predictions of the principal components correlated well, and the SSA \(+\) ARMA model effectively predicted the PM. For 360-day lead time predictions, the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of PMx and PMy were 20.67 and 20.42 mas, respectively, which were less than the 24.46 and 24.78 mas predicted by IERS Bulletin A. The RMSEs of PMx and PMy in the 720-day lead time predictions were 28.61 and 27.95 mas, respectively.  相似文献   

6.
The International GNSS Service (IGS) routinely generates a number of weekly, daily and sub-daily products. Station coordinates and velocities, earth rotation parameters (ERPs) and apparent geocenter are among these products generated weekly by the IGS Reference Frame Coordinator. They have been determined since 1999 by combining independent estimates from at least seven IGS Analysis Centers (ACs). Two Global Network Associate Analysis Centers (GNAACs) also provide independent combinations using the same AC weekly solutions and they are currently used to quality control the IGS combination. The combined solutions are aligned to an IGS realization (IGS05) of the ITRF2005 using a carefully selected set of the IGS Reference Frame (RF) stations (nominally 132). During the combination process, the contributing solutions are compared and outliers are removed to ensure a high level of consistency of the estimated parameters. The ACs and the weekly combined solution are consistent at the 1–2 and 3–4 mm levels for the horizontal and vertical components. Similarly, the excess Length of Day (LOD), the pole positions and pole rates are consistent at the 10μs, 0.03–0.05 mas and 0.10–0.20 mas/day levels, respectively. The consistency of the apparent geocenter estimate is about 5 mm in the X and Y components and 10 mm in the Z component. Comparison of the IGS-combined ERP estimates with the IERS Bulletin A suggests a small bias of the order of ?0.04 mas and + 0.05 mas (both ±0.05 mas) in the x and y components.  相似文献   

7.
A time dependent amplitude model was proposed for the analysis and prediction of polar motion time series. The formulation was implemented to analyze part of the new combined solution, EOP (IERS) C 04, daily polar motion time series of 14 years length using a statistical model with first order autoregressive disturbances. A new solution approach, where the serial correlations of the disturbances are eliminated by sequentially differencing the measurements, was used to estimate the model parameters using weighted least squares. The new model parsimoniously represents the 14-year time series with 0.5 mas rms fit, close to the reported 0.1 mas observed pole position precisions for the x and y components. The model can also predict 6 months into the future with less than 4 mas rms prediction error for both polar motion components, and down to sub mas for one-step ahead prediction as validated using a set of daily time series data that are not used in the estimation. This study is dedicated to the memory of Prof. Urho Uotila (1923–2006) whose teaching of “Adjustment Computations” over the years influenced so much, so many of us who had the privilege of being his students.  相似文献   

8.
Improved UT1 predictions through low-latency VLBI observations   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
The quality of predictions of Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) in general, and of Universal Time (UT1) in particular, depends strongly on the time delay between the last observation available and the first prediction. Since 30 September 2007 (MJD 54373), the latency of UT1 results from a subset of single baseline VLBI observations running once per week (Mondays) has been decreased from 2 to 3 days to about 8 h. This was achieved by transmitting the raw VLBI data of 1-h duration from the observing sites in Tsukuba (Japan), Wettzell (Germany) and Ny-Ålesund (Norway) to the correlator of the Max-Planck-Institute for Radio Astronomy and the German Federal Agency of Cartography and Geodesy at Bonn, Germany, by high-speed Internet connections (e-Transfer). The reduced latency of the observations has improved the accuracy of the combined International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Rapid Service/Prediction Center (RS/PC) UT1-UTC solution by roughly 50% on the days when the data are available. Because this combination is an input to the UT1-UTC prediction process, the improved latency is also responsible for a roughly 21% improvement in the accuracy of short-term IERS RS/PC UT1-UTC predictions on the days where the data are available.  相似文献   

9.
We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 × 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 × 4 SLR–DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models.  相似文献   

10.
The impact of GPS radio occultation (RO) data assimilation on severe weather predictions in East Asia is introduced and reviewed. Both the local observation operator that assimilates the retrieved refractivity as local point measurement, and the nonlocal observation operator that assimilates the integrated retrieved refractivity along a straight raypath have been utilized in WRF 3DVAR to improve the initial analysis of the model. A general evaluation of the impact of these approaches on Asian regional analysis and daily prediction is provided in this paper. In general, the GPS RO data assimilation may improve prediction of severe weather such as typhoons and Mei-yu systems when COSMIC data were available, ranging from several points in 2006 to a maximum of about 60 in 2007 and 2008 in this region. Based on a number of experiments, regional model predictions at 5 km resolution were not significantly influenced by different observation operators, although the nonlocal observation operator sometimes results in slightly better track forecast. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan. The impact of 56 GPS RO soundings on track prediction of Cyclone Gonu (2007) over the Indian Ocean is also appealing when compared to other tracks assimilated with different observations. From a successive evaluation of skill scores for real-time forecasts on Mei-yu frontal systems operationally conducted over a longer period and predictions of six typhoons in 2008, assimilation of GPS RO data appears to have some positive impact on regional weather predictions, on top of existent assimilation with all other observations.  相似文献   

11.
This paper evaluates the sensitivity of ITRF2008-based satellite laser ranging (SLR) station positions estimated weekly using LAGEOS-1/2 data from 1993 to 2012 to non-tidal time-varying gravity (TVG). Two primary methods for modeling TVG from degree-2 are employed. The operational approach applies an annual GRACE-derived field, and IERS recommended linear rates for five coefficients. The experimental approach uses low-order/degree $4\times 4$ coefficients estimated weekly from SLR and DORIS processing of up to 11 satellites (tvg4x4). This study shows that the LAGEOS-1/2 orbits and the weekly station solutions are sensitive to more detailed modeling of TVG than prescribed in the current IERS standards. Over 1993–2012 tvg4x4 improves SLR residuals by 18 % and shows 10 % RMS improvement in station stability. Tests suggest that the improved stability of the tvg4x4 POD solution frame may help clarify geophysical signals present in the estimated station position time series. The signals include linear and seasonal station motion, and motion of the TRF origin, particularly in Z. The effect on both POD and the station solutions becomes increasingly evident starting in 2006. Over 2008–2012, the tvg4x4 series improves SLR residuals by 29 %. Use of the GRGS RL02 $50\times 50$ series shows similar improvement in POD. Using tvg4x4, secular changes in the TRF origin Z component double over the last decade and although not conclusive, it is consistent with increased geocenter rate expected due to continental ice melt. The test results indicate that accurate modeling of TVG is necessary for improvement of station position estimation using SLR data.  相似文献   

12.
To ensure the consistent use of the current GPS precise satellite clock products, the inter-frequency clock bias (IFCB) should be carefully considered for triple-frequency precise point positioning (PPP). It is beneficial to investigate the modeling of the IFCB for multi-frequency PPP, especially for real-time users suffering from difficulties in real-time IFCB estimations. Our analysis is based on datasets from 129 stations spanning a whole year. A harmonic analysis is performed for all single-day IFCB time series, and periodic IFCB variations with periods of 12, 8, 6, 4.8, 4 and 3 h are identified. An empirical model composed of a sixth-order harmonic function and a linear function is presented to describe daily variations in the IFCB, and the modeling accuracy is 4 mm. A least squares fit is adopted to estimate the single-day harmonic coefficients phase and amplitude. The prediction accuracy of the IFCB models degrades from 7.2 to 12.3 mm when the time span of prediction is increased from a day to a week. When using IFCB models of the previous day to obtain the IFCB correction values, the positioning accuracy of triple-frequency PPP is improved by 21, 11 and 16% over the triple-frequency PPP neglecting the IFCB in the post-processing mode in the east, north and up directions, respectively. As to the real-time triple-frequency PPP, the corresponding accuracy improvement is 24, 9 and 10% in the three directions, respectively.  相似文献   

13.
Modern models of the Earth's gravity field are developed in the IERS (International Earth Rotation Service) terrestrial reference frame. In this frame the mean values for gravity coefficients of the second degree and first order, C 21(IERS) and S 21(IERS), by the current IERS Conventions are recommended to be calculated by using the observed polar motion parameters. Here, it is proved that the formulae presently employed by the IERS Conventions to obtain these coefficients are insufficient to ensure their values as given by the same source. The relevant error of the normalized mean values for C 21(IERS) and S 21(IERS) is 3×10−12, far above the adopted cutoff (10−13) for variations of these coefficients. Such an error in C 21 and S 21 can produce non-modeled perturbations in motion prediction of certain artificial Earth satellites of a magnitude comparable to the accuracy of current tracking measurements. Received: 14 September 1998 / Accepted: 20 May 1999  相似文献   

14.
Various types of onboard atomic clocks such as rubidium, cesium and hydrogen have different frequency accuracies and frequency drift rate characteristics. A passive hydrogen maser (PHM) has the advantage of low-frequency drift over a long period, which is suitable for long-term autonomous satellite time keeping. The third generation of Beidou Satellite Navigation System (BDS3) is equipped with PHMs which have been independently developed by China for their IGSO and MEO experimental satellites. Including Galileo, it is the second global satellite navigation system that uses PHM as a frequency standard for navigation signals. We briefly introduce the PHM design at the Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) and detailed performance evaluation of in-orbit PHMs. Using the high-precision clock values obtained by satellite-ground and inter-satellite measurement and communication systems, we analyze the frequency stability, clock prediction accuracy and clock rate variation characteristics of the BDS3 experimental satellites. The results show that the in-orbit PHM frequency stability of the BDS3 is approximately 6 × 10?15 at 1-day intervals, which is better than those of other types of onboard atomic clocks. The BDS3 PHM 2-, 10-h and 7-day clock prediction precision values are 0.26, 0.4 and 2.2 ns, respectively, which are better than those of the BDS3 rubidium clock and most of the GPS Block IIF and Galileo clocks. The BDS3 PHM 15-day clock rate variation is ? 1.83 × 10?14 s/s, which indicates an extremely small frequency drift. The 15-day long-term stability results show that the BDS3 PHM in-orbit stability is roughly the same as the ground performance test. The PHM is expected to provide a highly stable time and frequency standard in the autonomous navigation case.  相似文献   

15.
During a 4-year period starting in July 1996 and using intervals ranging from 3 days to 4 years, four precise polar motion (PM) series have been compared to excitation by atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) augmented with oceanic angular momentum (OAM) data. The first three series (C03, C04 and Bulletin A) are multi-technique combinations generated by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) and the fourth combined series (IGS00P02) is produced by the International GPS Service (IGS) using only GPS data. The IGS PM compared the best with the combined excitations of atmosphere and oceans (AAM+OAM) at all intervals, showing high overall correlation of 0.8–0.9. Even for the interval of only three days, the IGS PM gave a significant correlation of about 0.6. Moreover, during the interval of February 1999 – July 2000, which should be representative of the current precision of the IGS PM, a significant correlation (>0.4) extended to periods as short as 2.2 days and 2.5 days for the xp and yp PM components, respectively. When using the IERS Bulletin B (C04) PM and an interval of almost 6 years, starting in November 1994, the combined OAM+AAM accounted for practically all the annual, semi-annual and Chandler wobble (CW) PM signals. When only AAM was used, either the US National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis data, which were used throughout this study, or the Japanese Meteorological Agency data, two large and well-resolved amplitude peaks of about 0.1 mas/day, remained at the retrograde annual and CW periods.  相似文献   

16.
This paper aims at the prediction of both global mean sea level anomalies (SLAs) and gridded SLA data in the east equatorial Pacific obtained from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimetric measurements. The first prediction technique (denoted as LS) is based on the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic deterministic least-squares model describing a linear trend, annual and semi-annual oscillations. The second prediction method (denoted as LS + AR) is a combination of the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic model with the autoregressive forecast of LS residuals. In the case of forecasting global mean SLA data, both techniques allow one to compute the predictions of comparable accuracy (root mean square error for 1-month in the future is of 0.5 cm). In the case of predicting gridded SLA data, the LS + AR prediction method gains significantly better prediction accuracy than the accuracy obtained by the LS technique during El Niño 1997/1998, La Niña 1998/1999 and during normal conditions.  相似文献   

17.
This paper presents a spatially distributed support vector machine (SVM) system for estimating shallow water bathymetry from optical satellite images. Unlike the traditional global models that make predictions from a unified global model for the entire study area, our system uses locally trained SVMs and spatially weighted votes to make predictions. By using IKONOS-2 multi-spectral image and airborne bathymetric LiDAR water depth samples, we developed a spatially distributed SVM system for bathymetry estimates. The distributed model outperformed the global SVM model in predicting bathymetry from optical satellite images, and it worked well at the scenarios with a low number of training data samples. The experiments showed the localized model reduced the bathymetry estimation error by 60% from RMSE of 1.23 m to 0.48 m. Different from the traditional global model that underestimates water depth near shore and overestimates water depth offshore, the spatially distributed SVM system did not produce regional prediction bias and its prediction residual exhibited a random pattern. Our model worked well even if the sample density was much lower: The model trained with 10% of the samples was still able to obtain similar prediction accuracy as the global SVM model with the full training set.  相似文献   

18.
Real-time clock offset prediction with an improved model   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  
The GPS orbit precision of the IGS ultra-rapid predicted (IGU-P) products has been remarkably improved since 2007. However, the satellite clock offsets of the IGU-P products have not shown sufficient high-quality prediction to achieve sub-decimeter precision in real-time precise point positioning (RTPPP), being at the level of 1–3 ns (30–90 cm) RMS in recent years. An improved prediction model for satellite clocks is proposed in order to enhance the precision of predicted clock offsets. First, the proposed prediction model adds a few cyclic terms to absorb the periodic effects, and a time adaptive function is used to adjust the weight of the observation in the prediction model. Second, initial deviations of the predictions are reduced by using a recomputed constant term. The simulation results have shown that the proposed prediction model can give a better performance than the IGU-P clock products and can achieve precision better than 0.55 ns (16.5 cm) in real-time predictions. In addition, the RTPPP method was chosen to test the efficiency of the new model for real-time static and kinematic positioning. The numerical examples using the data set of 140 IGS stations show that the static RTPPP precision based on the proposed clock model has been improved about 22.8 and 41.5 % in the east and height components compared to the IGU-P clock products, while the precisions in the north components are the equal. The kinematic example using three IGS stations shows that the kinematic RTPPP precision based on the proposed clock model has improved about 30, 72 and 44 % in the east, north and height components.  相似文献   

19.
The Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), provides surface wind speed and direction with a spatial resolution of 50 km × 50 km. With a revisit time of 2 days it had provided ocean surface wind vectors over the global oceans. In the present work, an attempt has been made to generate two day composite of OSCAT wind vectors using Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis (DIVA) and compare them with daily composite winds to check how better is the two day composites in comparison to daily composites. The daily and two days composite wind vectors of zonal (U) and meridional (V) components have been validated with wind measurements from in situ buoys and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) for the year 2012 over the tropical Indian Ocean region. The statistical comparison with the in situ measurements and ASCAT has shown that the two-day OSCAT wind composites are slightly better than the daily composite winds. The improvement in the statistics can be attributed to the use of ascending and descending passes pertaining to two days which results in fewer gaps between passes, thereby reducing the interpolation errors.  相似文献   

20.
The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) snow cover information acquisition of the high precision spatial and temporal characteristics is of great significance for the research on its land surface atmosphere coupled system and global climate change effects. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) daily snow cover products (MOD10A1 and MYD10A1) have been widely used in long time series of spatial and temporal variation analysis, but they are limited to be used because of high cloud cover ratio. In this paper, a 7-day rolling combination algorithm was presented to eliminate cloud obscuration, and the whole cloud amount falls below 7 %. The ground station in situ measurements verify that the overall precision is more than 90 %. The presented algorithm guaranteed the same spatial resolution and temporal resolution, and has higher precision than products MOD10A1 and MYD10A1. The MODIS 7-day rolling combination snow cover datasets products were obtained between 2003 and 2014 in the QTP, and the snow cover area of spatial and temporal variation was analyzed. The change characteristics of snow cover duration was also studied combining with the Digital Elevation Model data. Results show that the snow cover area of the whole QTP has a slowly decreased trend, but increases in autumn. Thus, the snow cover proportion of annual periodic and unstable in different elevations has the highest correlation with area of the elevation.  相似文献   

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