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1.
Abigail Amissah-Arthur 《GeoJournal》2005,62(1):181-189
Sustaining and increasing crop production and productivity has to be a major policy thrust for developing countries. Using a simulation approach different production strategies were evaluated conditioned on climate information to derive optimal strategies to help farmers reduce risk and increase productivity. By examining the existence of options in this case planting dates the study provides an analyses of the expected value and risks associated with changing decisions based on the availability of climate forecasts. The 15-March planting date produced the highest mean yield for the two cultivars examined although 1-April, 15-April and 1-May plantings had one to zero probability of crop failures compared to 15-March with crop failures in 4 out of 20 years. Results indicate losses of between 25 and 35 kg/day due to delays in planting from 15-March planting to 1-June planting for the 120- and 150-day cultivar. El niño years were associated with positive yield deviations for both cultivars and most planting dates. Farmers are known to make tactical adjustments to their management in light of information perceived relevant to the prospects of forthcoming crop. Although in its present form most current forecast products do not provide information on onset of the rainfall, however the information they do provide could play a crucial role in helping farmers reduce the risks posed by climatic variability. 相似文献
2.
Losses caused by pests remain an important constraint to achieving high rice yields. Potentials of protecting these losses have stimulated innovations in pesticide development. Today the rice pesticide market is valued at US $ 3.0 billion per year. With reducing land available for rice production and increasing demand for food production, attention is turning towards intensification through higher fertilizer inputs and cropping. Such intensifications may in turn increase pest intensities and demand for more pesticides.A large proportion of insecticide sprays administered by rice farmers in Asia is influenced by misperceptions and overestimations of damages. Most farmers apply their first sprays in the first 40 days after crop establishment to control leaf feeding insects. However, these pests do not occur in sufficiently high densities to cause yield loss. Instead, such early season sprays may contribute towards development of secondary pests, such as the brown planthopper. Strategies to reduce insecticide use need to focus on enhancing naturally occurring biological control and understanding farmers' decision making behavior.Most fungicides used in rice are in the sub-tropical countries, like Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam. An important strategy towards reduction in fungicide use is through host plant resistance and gene deployment strategies. With biotechnology, tools may be used to characterize population structures in order to enhance these strategies. Cultural practices, such as rotations, cultivar mixtures, crop mosaics and planting times are being investigated.As cost of labor increases, farmers are likely to resort to using herbicides. The best way to accomplish weed control is the simultanous application of a variety of practices. These will include cultural, mechanical and chemical methods. The potentials of using naturally occurring enemies, such as plant pathogens, and the use of allelopathy are also being explored. 相似文献
3.
全球气候增暖对甘肃农作物生长影响的研究进展 总被引：16，自引：2，他引：14
系统总结了甘肃省科技攻关重大项目“甘肃干旱生态环境对全球气候变暖的响应研究”等3个课题的主要成果和研究进展。在揭示甘肃省现代气候变化基本特征是冬暖夏干的基础上,比较系统地综述了越冬作物（冬小麦、冬油菜）、喜凉作物（春小麦、马铃薯、胡麻）和喜温作物（玉米、棉花、酿酒葡萄）等8种主要农作物的生长发育、适生种植区高度和种植面积、产量和品质等对现代气候变化的响应特征。现代气候变化对甘肃农作物生长的影响非常突出,已对农作物安全生产与农业可持续发展构成了严重威胁。其研究结果为建立现代农业发展模式,旱作农业生产机制,农作物安全生产提供科学的指导意见。 相似文献
4.
5.
A long time series in crop yield is usually expressed as a long-term trend and a short-term fluctuation due to agricultural technological advance and climatic anomaly. The real climate risk is related to the short-term fluctuation in crop yield. In the paper, the climate risk of maize yield response to long-term climate variables is tested with the long time series (1961–2015) by a trend base line method. The long time series of maize yield is divided into short-term fluctuating meteorological yield and long-term trend yield. The long time series of climate variables are also divided into fluctuating variables and trend variables. After that, Pearson correlation analysis between fluctuating maize yield and fluctuating climate variables is used to identify risk factor causing maize yield fluctuation. Our results reveal that the main risk factors are night-time precipitation and extreme high temperature in growing season. Comparing climate risks in maize-producing provinces, much more climate risks are identified in some regions such as Liaoning province. The results provide useful information for reducing maize yield loss under climatic change.
相似文献6.
7.
Climate change adds another dimension of challenges to the growth and sustainability of Indian agriculture. The growing exposure to livelihood shocks from climate variability/change and limited resource base of the rural community to adapt has reinforced the need to mainstream climate adaptation planning into developmental landscape. However, a better understanding of micro-level perceptions is imperative for effective and informed planning at the macro-level. In this paper, the grass-root level perspectives on climate change impacts and adaptation decisions were elicited at farm level in the Moga district of Punjab and Mahbubnagar district of Telangana, India. The farmers opined that the climatic variability impacts more than the long-term climate change. They observed change in the quantum, onset and distribution of rainfall, rise in minimum as well as maximum temperature levels, decline in crop yield and ground water depletion. The key socio-economic effects of climate change included decline in farm income, farm unemployment, rural migration and increased indebtedness among farmers. In order to cope with climate variability and change thereon, farmers resorted to adaptation strategies such as use of crop varieties of suitable duration, water conservation techniques, crop insurance and participation in non-farm activities and employment guarantee schemes. Farmers’ adaptation to changing climate was constrained by several technological, socio-economic and institutional barriers. These include limited knowledge on the costs–benefits of adaptation, lack of access to and knowledge of adaptation technologies, lack of financial resources and limited information on weather. Besides, lack of access to input markets, inadequate farm labour and smaller farm size were the other constraints. Further, on the basis of the grass-root elicitation a ‘Need-Based Adaptation’ planning incorporating farmers’ perceptions on climate change impacts, constraints in the adoption of adaptation strategies and plausible adaptation options were linked with the most suitable ongoing programmatic interventions of the Government of India. The study concluded that micro-level needs and constraints for various adaptation strategies and interventions should be an integral part of the programme development, implementation and evaluation in the entire developmental paradigm. 相似文献
8.
Raza Ullah Ganesh P. Shivakoti Farhad Zulfiqar Muhammad Nadeem Iqbal Ashfaq Ahmad Shah 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(3):1361-1375
Agriculture sector is exposed to a variety of risks and uncertainties which can lead to sizeable losses in crop yields and alter farm incomes. Risk management is, therefore, an essential element of the overall farm management process. Farmers have number of options in managing farm risks; however, smallholders, due to their small operations and limited financial capabilities, find it difficult to adopt sophisticated risk management strategies to overcome yield and income instabilities at farm level. This study is, therefore, designed to investigate the enabling environment for small farmers to manage climatic risks at farm level. A total of 330 sampled respondents from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan are randomly selected for the study using multistage sampling technique. Analysis of variance technique is employed to compare the risk management adoption decision of small, medium and large farmers. A post hoc analysis is also performed to highlight the difference in means and the magnitude of differences. The results indicate that smallholders have significantly lower access to credit (both formal and informal), formal information sources along with significantly higher perceptions of pest and diseases. Smallholders are also at the tail end in the adoption of precautionary savings and agricultural credit to manage climatic risk at farm level. The study urges for risk management policies particularly in favor of the small farmers and intervention in the existing information and credit provision programs to facilitate smallholders in managing farm risks. 相似文献
9.
国外农情遥感监测系统现状与启示 总被引：19，自引：1，他引：18
大范围的可靠农情信息对粮食市场及相关政策的制定至关重要,是保障区域及全球粮食安全的重要依据,在全球气候变化、人口增长、土地利用/覆盖变化剧烈的背景下,对这一信息的需求也更加迫切.传统农情信息的获取依赖于庞大的调查队伍和大量的调查工作,信息的获取存在成本高、时效性差和结果受主观影响大的缺点.伴随着近30年遥感技术本身及其在农情信息获取领域能力的提升,一些国家与国际组织建设了各自的农情遥感监测系统,并开展了运行化的监测.对美国、欧盟、FAO、加拿大、巴西、阿根廷、俄罗斯、印度等主要的农情遥感监测系统进展进行了详细的介绍,并通过对这些系统的分析得到一些农情监测系统建设的启示.指出作物种植面积估算、单产预测、长势监测、旱情监测是农情遥感监测中最主要的4个主题.在面积估算方面,各个系统在遥感技术不断发展的同时对地面调查的依赖并没有减少,甚至得到了强化,这与遥感降低地面调查的初衷相违背,导致遥感技术在大范围农情监测中的潜力没有得到充分发挥,在单产预测方面,需要发展独立的遥感预测方法.提升遥感的作用是未来一段时间内农情遥感监测系统建设的主要方向. 相似文献
10.
气候变化对中国农业温度阈值影响研究及其不确定性分析 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
气候变化影响的温度阈值已经成为国际谈判的焦点问题。利用区域气候模式和作物模型相连接的方法,在50 km×50 km的网格尺度上模拟了IPCC (International Panel of Climate Change) SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2和B2情景下2011—2040年、2041—2070年和2071—2100年我国3种主要粮食作物（水稻、小麦和玉米）的平均单产变化情景,结合同时段的中国地区温度升高状况分析了造成我国主要粮食作物产量持续下降的升温阈值,并对阈值研究中的不确定性进行了初步分析。结果表明：如果同时考虑升温和CO2的肥效作用对作物的影响,目前预测的气温升高范围（0.9～3.9℃）中将不存在威胁我国粮食生产的温度阈值;而如果仅考虑升温对作物的影响时,全国平均温度升高2℃以后,将导致我国粮食单产水平的持续下降,威胁未来的粮食生产;气候变化适应措施如充分灌溉、播种期的调整和品种更替对阈值的确定有一定的影响,如单考虑充分灌溉可以使上述升温阈值延后到2.5℃左右,而播种期的调整和品种的更替也会对产量和产量变率造成一定的影响,进而调整温度阈值;目前研究的不确定性主要来源于情景、方法和适应措施3个方面。 相似文献
11.
未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测 总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21
玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物,研究气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与CERES Maize模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候（BS,1961—1990年）和A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案下2011—2100年我国雨养和灌溉玉米产量,初步预测了未来不同气候情景下玉米产量的变化状况。结果表明,如果保持现有的玉米生产状况,气候变化将导致我国玉米主产区的玉米单产普遍降低,总产下降,给玉米生产带来一定经济损失。A2气候变化情景对我国玉米产量的负面影响要大于B2情景。CO2肥效作用可以在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响,其缓解作用对雨养玉米更明显。未来全国玉米主产区的雨养和灌溉玉米的稳产风险及低产出现的概率将会增大,总产的年际波动更剧烈。由于目前研究结果是未考虑农业生产的适应措施而得出的,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。 相似文献
12.
R. Corobov 《GeoJournal》2002,57(3):195-202
Statistical methods for assessing crop sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in Moldova were demonstrated and the
following procedures were discussed: (1) projections of likely agroclimatic change; (2) assessments of crop sensitivity to
climate change; and (3) assessments of the impact of climate change on crops. In order to predict the future agroclimate,
key meteorological variables were transformed statistically to correspond to changes in plants' heat and water supply characteristics.
Sensitivity of crop production was examined for corn and winter wheat. By combining the agroclimatic changes with crop response,
possible impacts have been estimated and form a basis for possible adaptation strategies. It was shown that regional climate
change can result in elevated aridity of Moldova's territory, especially during periods of crop growth. Cultivation of cereal
crops in new agroclimatic conditions without adaptation measures will negatively affect yields, especially of winter wheat,
whose yield decrease may be 18–39% by 2020s and 22–50% by 2050s. Corn yields may increase by 0–3% and 1–6%, respectively.
As an example of adaptation, it is shown that the use of an increased number of late hybrids results in a 25–35% increase
in corn yields.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
13.
Activities to provide energy for an expanding population are increasingly disrupting and changing the concentration of atmospheric gases that increase global temperature. Increased CO2 and temperature have a clear effect on growth and production of rice as they are key factors in photosynthesis. Rice yields could be increased with increased levels of CO2, however, the rise of CO2 may be accompanied by an increase in global temperature. The effect of doubling CO2 levels on rice production was predicted using rice crop models. They showed different effects of climate change in different countries. A simulation of the Southeast Asian region indicated that a doubling of CO2 increases yield, whereas an increase in temperature decreases yield.Enhanced UV-B radiation resulting for stratographic ozone depletion has been demonstrated to significantly reduce plant height, leaf area and dry weight of two rice cultivars under glasshouse conditions. Data are still insufficient, however, for conclusive results on the effect of UV-B radiation on rice growth under field conditions.Rice production itself has a significant effect on global warming and atmospheric chemistry through methane emission from flooded ricefields. Water regime, soil properties and the rice plant are major factors controlling the flux of methane in ricefields. Global and regional estimates of methane emission rates are still highly uncertain and tentative. Integration of mechanistic modeling of methane fluxes with geographic information systems of factors controlling these processes are required to improve estimates and predictions. 相似文献
14.
Farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures to climate change and influential factors: a study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Adaptation to climate change in agricultural settings depends on understanding farmers’ perceptions of the nature of climate change, their agency in adapting and the efficacy of adaptive measures themselves. Such knowledge can improve mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study addresses the limited understanding of how farmers appraise their private adaptive measures and influential factors. It uses data from structured interviews with 598 rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Based on protection motivation theory, farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures were measured by perceived self-efficacy, perceived adaptation efficacy and perceived adaptation cost. Multiple regressions were used to understand significant factors affecting those assessments. Some demographic and socio-economic factors, belief in climate change, information and objective resources were found to influence farmers’ adaptation assessments. It is shown that the sources and quality of information are particularly important. The improvement of both the accessibility and usefulness of local services (e.g. irrigation, agricultural extension, credit and health care) is deemed a necessity for successful adaptation strategies in the Mekong Delta. The paper also shows the application of PMT in measuring farmers’ appraisals of private adaptive measures to climate change, thereby opening this area for further research. 相似文献
15.
Xianglian Li Xiusheng Yang Qiong Gao Yu Li Suocheng Dong 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2009,3(2):198-207
This study presents a basin-scale integrative hydrological, ecological, and economic (HEE) modeling system, aimed at evaluating
the impact of resources management, especially agricultural water resources management, on the sustainability of regional
water resources. The hydrological model in the modeling system was adapted from SWAT, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool,
to simulate the water balance in terms of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and streamflow. An ecological model was integrated
into the hydrological model to compute the ecosystem production of biomass production and yield for different land use types.
The economic model estimated the monetary values of crop production and water productivity over irrigated areas. The modeling
system was primarily integrated and run on a Windows platform and was able to produce simulation results at daily time steps
with a spatial resolution of hydrological response unit (HRU). The modeling system was then calibrated over the period from
1983 to 1991 for the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, China. Calibration results showed that the efficiencies
of the modeling system in simulating monthly streamflow over 5 hydrological stations were from 0.54 to 0.68 with an average
of 0.64, indicating an acceptable calibration. Preliminary simulation results from 1986 to 1995 revealed that water use in
the study region has largely reduced the streamflow in many parts of the area except for that in the riverhead. Spatial distribution
of biomass production, and crop yield showed a strong impact of irrigation on agricultural production. Water productivity
over irrigated cropland ranged from 1 to 1640 USD/(ha·mm−1), indicating a wide variation of the production conditions within the study region and a great potential in promoting water
use efficiency in low water productivity areas. Generally, simulation results from this study indicated that the modeling
system was capable of tracking the temporal and spatial variability of pertinent water balance variables, ecosystem dynamics,
and regional economy, and provided a useful simulation tool in evaluating long-term water resources management strategies
in a basin scale. 相似文献
16.
《Geoforum》2016
Extreme temperature events and global climatic changes may put human health at risk. Urban centers are particularly vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change. Japan is a densely populated and highly urbanized island frequently exposed to natural hazards and heat episodes. Japanese governments and practitioners design heat adaptation strategies to protect health and reduce risks. Are these strategies implemented at the local level? How do policymakers and researchers perceive heat and climate change adaptation measures? How are these strategies evaluated? In short: what is happening in Japan “on the ground”? This critical review briefly outlines heat adaptation solutions and challenges from three Japanese prefectures. It draws attention to implementation and evaluation barriers, and highlights creative approaches to adaptation, such as involving civil society volunteers. 相似文献
17.
高原地区农作物水热指标与特点的研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对作物农业气象条件鉴定、作物农业气象试验研究、作物生态气候适应性分析和作物农业气候区划以及农业气象灾害调查记载对比评估分析等手段, 整理和总结了髙原地区7种粮食作物、6种经济作物、6种特色作物、7种瓜果作物和4种中药材等共计30种农作物水热指标以及冬小麦和春小麦土壤水分指标. 高原地区作物水热指标具有4个明显特点, 釆用不同积温界限值来确定不同作物属性热量指标, 喜凉、中性、喜温和喜热作物分別釆用≥0 ℃、≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃和≥15 ℃积温界限值作热量指标. 不同温度带作物适宜的热量指标差异明显, 有随温度带愈冷凉作物热量指标呈偏低的趋势. 不同水分气候区作物水分指标差异较大, 有随湿润度增加作物水分指标呈递减的趋势. 作物水热指标随气候变化而发生缓慢变化, 气候变暖使作物全生长期延长, 对同一熟性品种而言, 需要热量指标比变暖前有提高趋势; 气候变干使作物水分指标有增加趋势. 农作物水热指标是衡量作物适生种植的重要标准, 是引种、作物布局、栽培管理、髙产优质安全生产的重要科学依据, 是气象为农业服务必不可少的基础资料, 也是服务工作的前提. 相似文献
18.
Niels Schütze Sebastian Kloss Franz Lennartz Ahmed Al Bakri Gerd H. Schmitz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(5):1511-1521
In this contribution, we introduce a stochastic framework for decision support for optimal planning and operation of water
supply in irrigation. This consists of (1) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change on the basis
of IPCC scenarios, (2) a tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water
supply, (3) a mechanistic model for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner, and (4) a kernel density
estimator for estimating stochastic productivity, profit, and demand functions by a nonparametric method. As a result of several
simulation/optimization runs within the framework, we present stochastic crop-water production functions (SCWPF) for different
crops which can be used as a basic tool for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield
for specific crops and specific agricultural areas. A case study for an agricultural area in the Al Batinah region of the
Sultanate of Oman is used to illustrate these methodologies. In addition, microeconomic impacts of climate change and the
vulnerability of the agro-ecological system are discussed. 相似文献
19.
模拟作物适宜生长区的时空分布是分析气候变化对作物生长影响、提高作物生长适应能力的重要内容。选择影响主要粮食作物(小麦、玉米和水稻)生长的气候要素,结合地表土壤和地面高程要素与农业观测站数据,模拟和分析1953—2012年主要粮食作物适宜生长区的变动,评估气候变化下作物的适应能力。研究发现:(1)60年来3种粮食作物适宜生长区对气候变化响应程度从大到小依次是小麦、水稻和玉米。(2)同一时空尺度上,主要粮食作物适宜生长类型区在南方农区较北方农区多样化,在山地较盆地多样化,在高原较平原多样化。(3)小麦生长适应气候变化的能力在多数农区略有上升。玉米生长的适应能力在北方和南方农区分别略微提高和下降。水稻生长的适应能力在长江中下游区、西南区和华南区相对稳定,在黄淮海区和东北区分别下降和提高。(4)60年来,主要粮食作物综合生长适应气候变化的能力在黄淮海区和长江中下游区下降,在其余农区升高。(5)玉米和水稻适宜生长区分别与播种面积和作物产量显著相关,这为模拟未来不同气候情景下二者适宜生长区的分布提供了可行性。小麦适宜生长区与播种面积和产量均不显著相关,未来需要考虑更多因素精准识别小麦适宜生长区,以便更为有效地提高小麦生长对气候变化的适应能力。 相似文献
20.
基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数的新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹驱动因素研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
水资源紧缺是限制我国西北干旱区农业发展的主要瓶颈,正确评估地区农业用水效率及其影响机制,可为提高农业用水效率提供理论依据。以新疆为研究区,基于1988-2015年的长系列数据,分别计算出历年北疆、南疆、东疆典型作物（小麦、棉花）生产水足迹,并采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数定量分析气象因素（年降雨量、年日照时数、年均温度、年均风速、年均湿度）和技术因素（农机总动力、有效灌溉率、化肥施用折纯量）对作物生产水足迹的影响贡献率。结果表明： 1988年至2015年,东疆小麦、棉花生产水足迹显著高于北疆和南疆,在气候变化和技术进步的综合影响下,各地区典型作物生产水足迹逐年降低,其中技术进步对新疆典型作物单产水足迹影响显著高于气候因素,是驱动新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹变化的主要控制因素。地区尺度上,北疆、南疆、东疆气候变化和农业技术发展均呈现显著的地区差异,总体来看,北疆气候条件最适宜作物生长,东疆气候最为恶劣,北疆、南疆农业技术发展速率整体上高于东疆。 相似文献