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1.
实时洪水抗差预报系统研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
赵超  洪华生  包为民  张珞平 《水文》2008,28(2):26-29
把抗差估计理论引入实时洪水预报系统,提出适合于实时洪水预报系统的抗差特征函数,建立降雨误差的动态监控模式,研究实时修正模型参数的动态抗差估计,结合洪水预报模型,形成具有水文学特点、抗差性强的实时洪水抗差预报系统.将此系统和传统实时洪水预报系统运用于闽江七里街流域,比较当降雨和流量资料存在异常误差时两系统的预报效果.结果表明,实时洪水抗差预报系统能抵御异常值的影响,获得比较稳定且高精度的预报结果.  相似文献   

2.
常静  杨志勇  曹永强  于赢东 《水文》2015,35(1):68-72
P-III型分布已被众多学者广泛应用于降水量的拟合,且效果良好,而降雨Z指数恰好假设某一时段的降水量服从这一分布,并且计算简便,结果比较符合实际,是反应旱涝分布及程度的一种常见的方法。在实际应用中,由于各区域降水的特征,导致结果不符合实际情况,需对其进行修正。从此角度出发,从我国七个区(华北、华中、华东、华南、东北、西北和西南地区)选取各区代表站的年降水量资料,分析了代表性站点降水频率特性,并对Z指数等级界限值进行修正。结果表明:由于各区域降水特性的差异,Z指数界限值有所不同,尤其华东、华南两区与其他区域差异较明显,由此推测我国降水在空间上存在差异。  相似文献   

3.
应用中央气象台24h降雨预报的可行性分析   总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15  
分析了降雨预报用于水库调度中的必要性和重要性,依据中央气象台1999-2003年全国44个大城市、24小时降雨预报资料及实际日降雨资料进行统计分析,分析有雨、无雨等级预报和各量级降雨预报精度及其经验统计规律,通过适线分析确定分级降雨预报的实际降雨分布规律,以期为各地水库调度提供参考。经分析,无雨预报准确率较高,可用于水库调度中;小雨准确率虽低,但发生小雨以下量级的频率较高,部分信息也可利用。  相似文献   

4.
关于地基承载力的探讨   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
李宝强 《岩土工程技术》2004,18(4):191-193,198
以土质地基为研究对象 ,结合载荷试验 p s曲线 ,应用土体的极限平衡理论 ,对地基土的变形性状、地基土承载力以及承载力修正等问题进行了分析。分析结果显示 :地基土承载力不单是地基土抗剪强度指标的函数 ,同时还与作用其上的基础埋深及基础宽度等因素密切相关。进行地基基础设计时 ,应根据实际的基础埋深与宽度对勘察资料中的地基土承载力进行修正 ,并提出了有关承载力修正的建议  相似文献   

5.
Lp估计理论及应用   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
基于最小二乘(LS)估计对粗差或长尾分布甚为敏感,作者提出用一簇估计-Lp估计似改善之。本文主要论述了Lp估计的基本原理及修正残差法的计算,并对Lp估计的抗差性能力及效率与p的关系进行了分析,最后用一算例进行了讨论。  相似文献   

6.
本文提出利用24h降雨预报的水库防洪调度的风险指标及其近似求解方法,即蒙特卡罗和观频率假定法,每种方法都结合丰满水库降雨预报洪水调度进行叙述.  相似文献   

7.
基于连续多孔介质原理与混合体原理引入流?固耦合模型,采用FISH语言编制程序,建立了初始渗流场设置函数、饱和?非饱和渗流分析模块、特殊应力修正模块以及非饱和单元抗剪强度修正模块,实现了利用FLAC3D进行饱和?非饱和渗流分析,同时基于饱和?非饱和渗流场修正非饱和区土体单元的有效应力以及抗剪强度,完成了将FLAC3D中饱和土流?固耦合计算原理扩展到非饱和土中。在二次开发的分析模块基础上对Liakopoulos砂柱排水试验进行数值模拟,验证了计算模型和计算程序的正确性。同时也研究了降雨入渗对土质边坡的渗流场、位移场以及稳定性演变过程的影响,揭示了降雨诱发边坡失稳的机制。  相似文献   

8.
自适应修正预报模型   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
刘志辉  张国威 《水文》1995,(5):10-14
根据新疆内陆干旱区河流冰雪融水补给比重较大、径流变化较的特点,在ARMA模型和非平稳时序分析的乘积模型基础上,并考虑到影响径流形成的主要因子气温和降雨,对径流预报值进行行修正,提出一个自适应修正预报模型。  相似文献   

9.
降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡稳定分析   总被引:25,自引:0,他引:25  
徐晗  朱以文  蔡元奇  朱方敏 《岩土力学》2005,26(12):1957-1962
针对降雨入渗土坡的稳定问题,建立一个考虑水力渗透系数特征曲线、土-水特征曲线以及修正的Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则的非饱和土流固耦合有限元计算模型,进行雨水入渗下非饱和土边坡渗流场和应力场耦合的数值模拟,得到非饱和土边坡变形与应力的若干重要规律。研究成果为降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡的稳定分析提供了基础。  相似文献   

10.
《岩土力学》2009,30(4)
【内容简介】本书在阐述与回顾经典的量纲分析与相似定理的基础上,结合滑坡模型试验自身的特点,阐述了滑坡模型试验相似理论和相似判据的确定方法,并提出了滑坡模型畸变修正方法与畸变模型设计理论;研究井开发了考虑水库水位变化和大气降雨作用下的滑坡物理模型试验系统,该系统包括模型试验平台起降、室内人工降雨、水库水位变化控制、多物理量测试、  相似文献   

11.
Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry in South Wales yielded a rich cache of fossils in the early 1950s, including articulated specimens of new species (the small sauropodomorph dinosaur Pantydraco caducus and the crocodylomorph Terrestrisuchus gracilis), but no substantial study of the wider fauna of the Pant-y-ffynnon fissure systems has been published. Here, our overview of existing specimens, a few described but mostly undescribed, as well as freshly processed material, provides a comprehensive picture of the Pant-y-ffynnon palaeo-island of the Late Triassic. This was an island with a relatively impoverished fauna dominated by small clevosaurs (rhynchocephalians), including a new species, Clevosaurus cambrica, described here from a partially articulated specimen and isolated bones. The new species has a dental morphology that is intermediate between the Late Triassic Clevosaurus hudsoni, from Cromhall Quarry to the east, and the younger C. convallis from Pant Quarry to the west, suggesting adaptive radiation of clevosaurs in the palaeo-archipelago. The larger reptiles on the palaeo-island do not exceed 1.5?m in length, including a small carnivorous crocodylomorph, Terrestrisuchus, and a possible example of insular dwarfism in the basal dinosaur Pantydraco.  相似文献   

12.
Lithostratigraphy, physicochemical stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, and geochronology of the 77–70 Ma old series bracketing the Campanian–Maastrichtian boundary have been investigated by 70 experts. For the first time, direct relationships between macro- and microfossils have been established, as well as direct and indirect relationships between chemo-physical and biostratigraphical tools. A combination of criteria for selecting the boundary level, duration estimates, uncertainties on durations and on the location of biohorizons have been considered; new chronostratigraphic units are proposed. The geological site at Tercis is accepted by the Commission on Stratigraphy as the international reference for the stratigraphy of the studied interval. To cite this article: G.S. Odin, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 409–414.  相似文献   

13.
Robert L. Linnen   《Lithos》2005,80(1-4):267-280
The solubilities of columbite, tantalite, wolframite, rutile, zircon and hafnon were determined as a function of the water contents in peralkaline and subaluminous granite melts. All experiments were conducted at 1035 °C and 2 kbar and the water contents of the melts ranged from nominally dry to approximately 6 wt.% H2O. Accessory phase solubilities are not affected by the water content of the peralkaline melt. By contrast, solubilities are affected by the water content of the subaluminous melt, where the solubilities of all the accessory phases examined increase with the water content of the melt, up to 2 wt.% H2O. At higher water contents, solubilities are nearly constant. It can be concluded that water is not an important control of accessory phase solubility, although the water content will affect diffusivities of components in the melt, thus whether or not accessory phases will be present as restite material. The solubility behaviour in the subaluminous and peralkaline melts supports previous spectroscopic studies, which have observed differences in the coordination of high field strength elements in dry vs. wet subaluminous granitic glasses, but not for peralkaline granitic glasses. Lastly, the fact that wolframite solubility increases with increasing water content in the subaluminous melt suggests that tungsten dissolved as a hexavalent species.  相似文献   

14.
Some olistolites reworked in a Tertiary flysch of Mount Parnon (Peloponnesus, Greece) exhibit a Late Permian assemblage, dominated by Paradunbarula (Shindella) shindensis, Hemigordiopsis cf. luquensis and Colaniella aff. minima. This association corresponds to the Late Wuchiapingian (=Late Dzhulfian), a substage whose algae and foraminifera are generally little known. Contemporaneous limestones crop out in the middle part of the Episkopi Formation in Hydra, but they are rather commonly reworked in Mesozoic and Cainozoic sequences. The palaeobiogeographical affinities shared by the foraminiferal markers of Greece, southeastern Pamir, and southern China, are very strong (up to the specific level), and are congruent with the Pangea B reconstructions. To cite this article: E. Skourtsos et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 925–931.  相似文献   

15.
16.
PALEONTOLOGY     
正20141596 Liu Yunhuan(School of Earth Sciences and Resources,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China);Shao Tiequan Early Cambrian Quadrapyrgites Fossils of Xixiang Boita in Southern Shaanxi Province(Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,ISSN1672-6561,CN61-1423/P,35(3),2013,p.39-43,3 illus.,20 refs.)  相似文献   

17.
正20141719 Chen Zhijun(State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China);Chen Jianguo Automated Batch Mapping Solution for Serial Maps:A Case Study of Exploration Geochemistry Maps(Journal of Geology,ISSN1674-3636,CN32-1796/P,37(3),2013,p.456-464,2 illus.,2 tables,10 refs.)  相似文献   

18.
正20140962 Chen Fenning(Xi’an Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources,Xi’an710054,China);Chen Ruiming Late Miocene-Early Pleistocene Ostracoda Fauna of Gyirong Basin,Southern Tibet(Acta Geologica Sinica,ISSN0001-5717,CN11-1951/P,87(6),2013,p.872-886,6illus.,56refs.)  相似文献   

19.
PETROLOGY     
正1.IGNEOUS PETROLOGY20142008Cai Jinhui(Wuhan Center,China Geological Survey,Wuhan 430205,China);Liu Wei Zircon U-Pb Geochronology and Mineralization Significance of Granodiorites from Fuzichong Pb-Zn Deposit,Guangxi,South China(Geology and Mineral Resources of South China,ISSN1007-3701,CN42-1417/P,29(4),2013,p.271-281,7illus.,  相似文献   

20.
正20141205Cheng Weiming(State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China);Xia Yao Regional Hazard Assessment of Disaster Environment for Debris Flows:Taking Jundu Mountain,Beijing as an  相似文献   

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