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1.
ISOTOPE RECORDS FROM MONGOLIAN AND ALPINE ICE CORES AS CLIMATE INDICATORS   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The link between long term changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation and surface air temperature at a given location is of exceptional importance for paleoclimatic studies, as ahs been demonstrated by many recent publications based on the isotope records from polar ice cores. By means of direct comparison with instrumental data, this paper evaluates the potential of the deuterium and oxygen-18 records from two continental glaciers for monitoring climatic trends. The isotopic data presented characterize climatically contrasted enviroments. The records from the Swiss glacier show distinct seasonal variations. Oxygen-18 is fairly well correlated with the instrumental record of atmospheric temperature; the seasonal differences in deuterium excess reflect nearness to the oceanic moisture source. By contrast, the isotope data from the Mongolian site show poor correlation with atmospheric temperature. The seasonal variations in deuterium excess, with higher values during summer time, indicate that precipitation largely originates from re-evaporated continental moisture sources. In both cases however, the correlation with temperature is significantly improved by the elimination of values derived from years where major changes in seasonal distribution and/or snow loss obviously have occurred, thereby distoring the isotopic ratios for that particular year. Depending on the site selected for study, the stable isotope composition of ice cores should therefore be viewed not only as a proxy for atmospheric temperature, but also as an additional hydrometeorological parameter and source indicator for atmospheric moisture.  相似文献   

2.
A detailed climatic study of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1850 to 1980 has been carried out through the analysis of deuterium content in the snow layers of Dalinger Dome (James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula). It is based on the high correlation found between mean deuterium contents at this site and temperature data from stations within this region going back as far as April 1903 for the Argentine Orcadas station.The strong correlation between isotopes and temperatures first reveals a 1956 isotope reference for the region considered. Secondly, the isotope-temperature gradient is estimated at 4.5%. °C–1 for deuterium.After checking that the major temperature anomalies on the Antarctic Peninsula recorded since 1904 (according to available data) correspond to annual mean stable isotope peaks at Dalinger Dome, the amplitude of four prior anomalies are estimated in °C. Finally, a cooling of about 2 °C since 1850 is suggested for the region.  相似文献   

3.
The Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM‐4 is used to identify the main source regions of precipitation falling on Greenland and Antarctica. Both water isotopes H218O and HDO are explicitly built into the water cycle of the AGCM, and in addition the capability to trace water from different source regions was added to the model. Present and LGM climate simulations show that water from the most important source regions has an isotopic signature similar to the mean isotope values of the total precipitation amount. But water from other source regions (with very different isotopic signatures) contributes an additional, non‐negligible part of the total precipitation amount on both Greenland and Antarctica. Analyses of the temperature‐isotope‐relations for both polar regions reveal a solely bias of the glacial isotope signal on Greenland, which is caused by a strong change in the seasonal deposition of precipitation originating from nearby polar seas and the northern Atlantic. Although the performed simulations under LGM boundary conditions show a decrease of the δ 18O values in precipitation in agreement with ice core measurements, the AGCM fails to reproduce the observed simultaneous decrease of the deuterium excess signal.  相似文献   

4.
We analyze the control runs and 2 × CO2 projections (5-yearlengths) of the CSIRO Mk 2 GCM and the RegCM2 regional climate model, which was nested in the CSIRO GCM, over the Southeastern U.S.; and we present the development of climate scenarios for use in an integrated assessment of agriculture. The RegCM exhibits smaller biases in both maximum and minimum temperature compared to the CSIRO. Domain average precipitation biases are generally negative and relatively small in winter, spring, and fall, but both models produce large positive biases in summer, that of the RegCM being the larger. Spatial pattern correlations of the model control runs and observations show that the RegCM reproduces better than the CSIRO the spatial patterns of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature in all seasons. Under climate change conditions, the most salient feature from the point of view of scenarios for agriculture is the large decreases in summer precipitation, about 20% in the CSIRO and 30% in the RegCM. Increases in springprecipitation are found in both models, about 35% in the CSIRO and 25% in theRegCM. Precipitation decreases of about 20% dominate in winter in the CSIRO,while a more complex pattern of increases and decreases is exhibited by the regional model. Temperature increases by 3 to 5 °C in the CSIRO, the higher values dominating in winter and spring. In the RegCM, temperature increases are much more spatially and temporally variable, ranging from 1 to 7 °C acrossall months and grids. In summer large increases (up to 7 °C) in maximum temperature are found in the northeastern part of the domain where maximum drying occurs.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

Current understanding of the possible nature of climatic change at the regional scale is limited by the spatial resolution of General Circulation Models (GCM). The use of GCM outputs without correction linked to the spatial variability of the variables can bring significant errors in their utilization at the regional scale. The potential of the Canadian GCM for regional applications in Quebec has been analysed by comparison to the climatic normals of temperature and precipitation, measured over the Quebec climatological network, on an annual and seasonal basis. This analysis has been undertaken with the support of a geographical information system (GIS) (PAMAP). In summary, a difference between the climatic normal and the GCM output has been estimated at 20% for temperature and 30% for precipitation. We present an analysis of a corrected regionalized scenario for the province of Quebec of the possible climatic change simulated by the Canadian GCM under the hypothesis of a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Results show an increase of the annual average temperature of 4° C for summer and 6°C for winter, associated with an average increase of 80 mm (10%) in annual precipitation, reaching 25% in some regions.  相似文献   

6.
Stable isotopes in water have been measured along a very high accumulation ice core from Law Dome on the east Antarctic coast. These enable a detailed comparison of the isotopic records over sixty years (1934–1992) with local (Antarctic station data) and remote meteorological observations (atmospheric reanalyses and sea-surface temperature estimates) on a seasonal to inter-annual time scale. Using both observations and isotopic atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) results, we quantify the relationships between stable isotopes (d 18O, dD and deuterium excess; d = dD –8 × d 18O) with site and source temperature at seasonal and decadal time scales, showing the large imprint of source conditions on Law Dome isotopes. These calibrations provide new insights for the quantitative interpretation of temporal isotopic fluctuations from coastal Antarctic ice cores. An abrupt change in the local meridional atmospheric circulation is clearly identified from Law Dome deuterium excess during the 1970s and analysed using GCM simulations.  相似文献   

7.
Increased Precipitation in the Norwegian Arctic: True or False?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Results from the WMO Solid Precipitation MeasurementIntercomparison and parallel precipitationmeasurements from Svalbard are used to evaluate andadjust models for estimating true precipitation underArctic conditions. The conclusion is that trueprecipitation in the Arctic may be estimatedreasonably well when the wind speed at gauge height isless than 7 m/s. It is possible to give good estimatesof true annual and seasonal precipitation at Svalbard,as only a small part of the precipitation is fallingat wind speeds above 7 m/s. For rough calculations,the correction factors for liquid precipitation isestimated to be 1.15 and for solid precipitation1.85.The developed correction models are used to estimateamounts and trends of true precipitation for two sitesin the Norwegian Arctic. In Ny-Ålesund the trueannual precipitation is more than 50% higher than themeasured amount. As the aerodynamic effects leading toprecipitation undercatch are dependent onprecipitation type and temperature, the observed andprojected increase in the air temperature in theArctic would also affect the measured precipitation,even if the true precipitation was unchanged. Sincethe mid 1960s the temperature at Svalbard Airport hasincreased by 0.5 °C per decade, resulting in areduced fraction of annual precipitation falling assnow. In the same period, the measured precipitationhas increased by 2.9% per decade and the `true' by1.7% per decade. Estimates are made of the fictitiousprecipitation increase that would result from ageneral temperature increase of 2, 4 and 6 °C. The increase in the measured annual precipitationwould be 6, 10 and 13%, respectively. The expectedfictitious precipitation increase is thus of the samemagnitude as the real precipitation increase whichaccording to recent GCM projections may be expected inNorthern Europe as a result of a doubling of theatmospheric CO2 content.  相似文献   

8.
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. Historically, the size of breeding duck populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions. We show that one indicator of climate conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is strongly correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996) of both May ponds (R2 = 0.72, p < 0.0001) and breeding duck populations (R2 = 0.69, p < 0.0001) in the Northcentral U.S., suggesting the utility of PDSI as an index for climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use this relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based on PDSI values generated from sensitivity analyses and two general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate the sensitivity of PDSI to fixed changes in temperature of 0°C, +1.5°C, +2.5°C, and +4.0°C in combination with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%, +0%, +7%, and +15%, changes spanning the range of typically-projected values for this region from human-induced climatic change. Most (11 of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result in increased drought (due to greater evapotranspiration under warmer temperatures) and declining numbers of both wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060, both the equilibrium and transient GCM scenarios we use suggest a major increase in drought conditions. Under these scenarios, Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2.7 million ducks based on the two GCMs, respectively, instead of the present long-term mean of 5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds instead of the present mean of 1.3 million. The results suggest that the ecologically and economically important PPR could be significantly damaged by climate changes typically projected. We make several recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate potential effects.  相似文献   

9.
 We test the climate effects of changes in the tropical ocean by imposing three different patterns of tropical SSTs in ice age general circulation model simulations that include water source tracers and water isotope tracers. The continental air temperature and hydrological cycle response in these simulations is substantial and should be directly comparable to the paleoclimatic record. With tropical cooling imposed, there is a strong temperature response in mid- to high-latitudes resulting from changes in sea ice and disturbance of the planetary waves; the results suggest that tropical/subtropical ocean cooling leads to significant dynamical and radiative feedbacks that might amplify ice age cycles. The isotopes in precipitation generally follow the temperature response at higher latitudes, but regional δ18O/air temperature scaling factors differ greatly among the experiments. In low-latitudes, continental surface temperatures decrease congruently with the adjacent SSTs in the cooling experiments. Assuming CLIMAP SSTs, 18O/16O ratios in low-latitude precipitation show no change from modern values. However, the experiments with additional cooling of SSTs produce much lower tropical continental δ18O values, and these low values result primarily from an enhanced recycling of continental moisture (as marine evaporation is reduced). The water isotopes are especially sensitive to continental aridity, suggesting that they represent an effective tracer of the extent of tropical cooling and drying. Only one of the tropical cooling simulations produces generalized low-latitude aridity. These results demonstrate that the geographic pattern of cooling is most critical for promoting much drier continents, and they underscore the need for accurate reconstructions of SST gradients in the ice age ocean. Received: 26 July 1999 / Accepted: 10 July 2000  相似文献   

10.
Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio in atmospheric CO2 permit a distinction between variations resulting from biospheric and oceanic exchange. In situ extraction of CO2 from Cape Grim air (41°S) for isotopic analysis commenced in 1977; however difficulties with technique reliability were experienced until 1982. Since 1982, 2.6 years of relatively consistent values have accumulated.For a preliminary assessment of the latter data, estimates of the isotopic behaviour from the global transport and inter-reservoir exchange model of Pearman and Hyson (1985) have been employed. The assessment demonstrates the precision requirements of a carbon isotope monitoring program and the relevance of the isotope measurements as a constraint on parameterization of the model.Clear evidence of the changes due to fossil fuel combustion is seen in the year-to-year differences in 13C, with the mean and standard error of the overall trend being –0.025±0.005 yr-1. A significant seasonal variation in 13C is apparent, despite considerable inter-annual variability possibly associated with the 1982/83 ENSO phenomena. The average peak-to-peak amplitude is 0.055±0.014 with a maximum on day 85±15 (approx. 26 March).There is some evidence for a complex seasonal inter-relationship between concentration and isotope ratio, both in the Cape Grim data and in Mook et al. (1983) South Pole data, but with marked differences between the stations, and with both different from the model estimates.In particular, the Cape Grim results suggest that exchange with Southern Hemisphere biosphere is the main contributor to the seasonal variation in isotope ratio at this latitude.  相似文献   

11.
Summary Monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation totals in two small catchments in the Czech Republic are estimated from large-scale 500 hPa height and 1000/500 hPa thickness fields using statistical downscaling. The method used is multiple linear regression. Whereas precipitation can be determined from large-scale fields with some confidence in only a few months of the year, temperature can be determined successfully. Principal components calculated separately from the height and thickness anomalies are identified as the best predictor set. The method is most accurate if the regression is performed using seasons based on three months. The test on an independent sample, consisting of warm seasons, confirms that the method successfully reproduces the difference in mean temperature between two climatic states, which indicates that this downscaling method is applicable for constructing scenarios of a future climate change. The ECHAM3 GCM is used for scenario construction. The GCM is shown to simulate surface temperature and precipitation with low accuracy, whereas the large-scale atmospheric fields are reproduced well; this justifies the downscaling approach. The observed regression equations are applied to 2xCO2 GCM output so that the model’s bias is eleminated. This procedure is then discussed and finally, temperature scenarios for the 2xCO2 climate are constructed for the two catchments. Received December 3, 1998 Revised December 4, 1999  相似文献   

12.
The Czech Republic has a northern hemisphere Atlantic-continental type of moderate climate. Mean annual temperature ranges between 1.0 and 9.4 °C (between 8.8 and 18.5 °C in summer and between –6.8 and 0.2 °C in winter). Annual precipitation ranges between 450 mm in dry regions and 1300 mm in mountainous regions of the country. With its 2000 m3 per capita fresh water availability, the Czech Republic is slightly below average. Occasional water shortages do not usually result from general unavailability of water resources but rather from time or space variability of water supply/demand and high degree of water resources exploitation. To study potential impacts of climate change on hydrological system and water resources, four river basins have been selected in the territory of the Czech Republic: the Elbe River at Decin (50761.7 km2), the Zelivka River at Soutice (1188.6 km2), the Upa River at Ceska Skalice (460.7 km2) and the Metuje River at Marsov n. M. (93.9 km2). To simulate potential changes in runoff, three hydrological models have been applied using incremental and GCM (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) scenarios: the BILAN water balance model, the SACRAMENTO (SAC-SMA) conceptual model and the CLIRUN water balance model. The paper reviews methods applied in the study, results of the assessments and concludes with suggestions for possible general adaptation policy options where the preference is for nonstructural measures such as water conservation, efficient water demand management and protection of water resources.  相似文献   

13.
Zonal-scale patterns of precipitation change, as reconstructed for the Mid-Pliocene and the two Pleistocene optima, are compared with those generated in standard 2 × CO2–1 × CO2 equilibrium experiments by two high-resolution GCMs of equal sensitivities of global precipitation and temperature to CO2 doubling. We find that the three warm paleoclimates, despite differences in boundary conditions/forcings, exhibit a similarity in zonal-scale patterns of change for precipitation over land in the Northern Hemisphere (NH); the between-epoch pattern correlation is 0.9 on the average. The two models give marked differences in zonal distribution of precipitation anomalies at mid-latitudes; the between-model pattern correlation for changes of precipitation over NH land is 0.4. The response of precipitation over the NH land area to the NH warming is about 10%/°C in the paleodata compared to 3%/°C in the models. The largest model/paleodata descrepancy refers to the present-day desert belt, where a large precipitation anomaly persists in all epochs. North of 50 N, the absolute values of the zonally-averaged precipitation anomalies simulated by both models fall in the range implied by the three warm paleoclimates, but they are systematically lower than the anomalies of the Mid-Pliocene. If our reconsructions are valid and if climate changes in the Mid-Pliocene were driven solely by CO2 changes, then our results suggest that models are underestimating the magnitude of the precipitation response, especially in the regions of subtropical deserts; the magnitude of the simulated temperature response at high latitudes is also underestimated. At least part of the reported model/paleodata discordance appears to be due to lack of interactive land surface package in the models examined.  相似文献   

14.
The trends and features of China’s climatic change in the past and future are analysed by applying station obser-vations and GCM simulation results. Nationally, the country has warmed by 0.3oC in annual mean air temperature and decreased by 5% in annual precipitation over 1951-1990. Regionally, temperature change has varied from a cooling of 0.3oC in Southwest China to a warming of 1.0oC in Northeast China. With the exception of South China, all regions of China have shown a declination in precipitation. Climatic change has the features of increasing remark-ably in winter temperature and decreasing obviously in summer precipitation. Under doubled CO2 concentration, climatic change in China will tend to be warmer and moister, with increases of 4.5oC in annual mean air temperature and 11% in annual precipitation on the national scale. Future climatic change will reduce the temporal and spatial differences of climatic factors.  相似文献   

15.
The snow-sea-ice albedo parameterization in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean and run with an annual cycle of solar forcing, is altered from a version of the same model described by Washington and Meehl (1984). The model with the revised formulation is run to equilibrium for 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 experiments. The 1 ×CO2 (control) simulation produces a global mean climate about 1° warmer than the original version, and sea-ice extent is reduced. The model with the altered parameterization displays heightened sensitivity in the global means, but the geographical patterns of climate change due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) are qualitatively similar. The magnitude of the climate change is affected, not only in areas directly influenced by snow and ice changes but also in other regions of the globe, including the tropics where sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation over the oceans are greater. With the less-sensitive formulation, the global mean surface air temperature increase is 3.5 °C, and the increase of global mean precipitation is 7.12%. The revised formulation produces a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 4.04 °C and a precipitation increase of 7.25%, as well as greater warming of the upper tropical troposphere. Sensitivity of surface hydrology is qualitatively similar between the two cases with the larger-magnitude changes in the revised snow and ice-albedo scheme experiment. Variability of surface air temperature in the model is comparable to observations in most areas except at high latitudes during winter. In those regions, temporal variation of the sea-ice margin and fluctuations of snow cover dependent on the snow-ice-albedo formulation contribute to larger-than-observed temperature variability. This study highlights an uncertainty associated with results from current climate GCMs that use highly parameterized snow-sea-ice albedo schemes with simple mixed-layer ocean models.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

16.
Summary An N–PLS regression technique was tested as an empirical downscaling method. Average monthly near-ground air temperature (t), specific humidity (q), and sea-level pressure (p) fields across Central and Western Europe were used as predictors for average monthly air temperature (T), dew temperature (D), and precipitation amount (P) at 4 locations in Slovenia. The empirical downscaling models (EM) were developed by means of available predictand data from the ARSO archive and predictor data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project, for the period 1951–2002, separately for single months. Using the combination of t and p as predictors, the EM for T explained from 73% to 95% of predictand variability, for D from 74% to 97% of predictand variability, and for P from 31% to 76% of predictand variability. The use of q as an additional predictor did not improve the quality of the EM considerably. Developed EM using p and t as predictors were applied to the results of 5 general circulation models (GCM): CSIRO/Mk2, CCC/CGCM2, UKMO/HadCM3, DOE-NCAR/PCM, and MPI-DMI/ECHAM4-OPYC3. Only the simulations based on SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were considered in our calculations. Available mean monthly values of predictors for the period 1951–2100 were used. All the projections of GCM results indicate an increase in T and D and decrease in P in the 21st century at all 4 locations. The expected range of changes in T, D, and P is wide due to the different response of GCM to identical changes in the atmospheric composition, and represents a source of uncertainty in empirical downscaling results. Another important source of uncertainty in empirical downscaling studies, especially when temperature dependent predictors are used, is the problem of extrapolation. By using the proper mathematical approach for EM development we only reduce a part of the uncertainty related to the quality of empirical models that also strongly depend on the quality of input data and predictor selection. The N–PLS regression seems to be a suitable choice of mathematical method, as the feature selection from a large number of predictor time series is not predictand independent. Finally, any climate change and impact studies for the future are affected by many other uncertainties that we have to be fully aware of, while interpreting their results.  相似文献   

17.
The surface energy fluxes simulated by the CSIRO9 Mark 1 GCM for present and doubled CO2 conditions are analyzed. On the global scale the climatological flux fields are similar to those from four GCMs studied previously. A diagnostic calculation is used to provide estimates of the radiative forcing by the GCM atmosphere. For 1 × CO2, in the global and annual mean, cloud produces a net cooling at the surface of 31 W m–2. The clear-sky longwave surface greenhouse effect is 311 W m–2, while the corresponding shortwave term is –79 W m–2. As for the other GCM results, the CSIRO9 CO2 surface warming (global mean 4.8°C) is closely related to the increased downward longwave radiation (LW ). Global mean net cloud forcing changes little. The contrast in warming between land and ocean, largely due to the increase in evaporative cooling (E) over ocean, is highlighted. In order to further the understanding of influences on the fluxes, simple physically based linear models are developed using multiple regression. Applied to both 1 × CO2 and CO2 December–February mean tropical fields from CSIRO9, the linear models quite accurately (3–5 W m–2 for 1 × CO2 and 2–3 W m–2 for CO2) relate LW and net shortwave radiation to temperature, surface albedo, the water vapor column, and cloud. The linear models provide alternative estimates of radiative forcing terms to those from the diagnostic calculation. Tropical mean cloud forcings are compared. Over land, E is well correlated with soil moisture, and sensible heat with air-surface temperature difference. However an attempt to relate the spatial variation of LWt within the tropics to that of the nonflux fields had little success. Regional changes in surface temperature are not linearly related to, for instance, changes in cloud or soil moisture.  相似文献   

18.
A regional database containing historical time series and climate change scenarios for the Southeastern United States was developed for the U.S.D.A. Forest Service Southern Global Change Program (SGCP). Daily historical values of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation and empirically derived estimates of vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation across a uniform 1° latitude × 1° longitude grid were obtained. Climate change scenarios of temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation were generated using semi-empirical techniques which combined historical time series and simulation field summaries from GISS, GFDL, OSU and UKMO General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments. An internally consistent 1° latitude × 1° longitude climate change scenario database was produced in which vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation conditions were driven by the GCM temperature projections, but were not constrained to agree with GCM calculated radiation and humidity fields. Some of the unique characteristics of the database were illustrated through a case study featuring growing season and annual potential evapotranspiration (ETp) estimates. Overall, the unconstrained scenarios produced smaller median ETp changes from historical baseline conditions, with a smaller range of outcomes than those driven by GCM-directed scenarios. Collectively, the range of annual and growing season ET changes from baseline estimates in response to the unconstrained climate scenarios was +10% to +40%. No outlier responses were identified. ETp changes driven by GCM-directed (constrained) UKMO radiation and humidity scenarios were on the order of +100%, resulting in the identification of some ETp responses as statistical outliers. These response differences were attributed to differences between the constrained and unconstrained humidity scenarios.  相似文献   

19.
An empirical-statistical climate-glacier model is used to reconstruct Late Pleistocene climate conditions in the south-central Andes of northern Chile (29–30° S). The model was tested using modern climate data and the results compare favorably with key glaciological features presentlyobserved in this area. Using several glaciers at 29° S as casestudies, the results suggest an increase in annual precipitation( P = 580 ± 150 mm, today 400 mm), and a reduction inannual mean temperature ( T = –5.7 ± 0.7 ° C).These data suggest full glacial LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) conditionsfor the maximum glacier advances at 29° S, a scenario that is asynchronous with the timing of maximum advances north of the Arid Diagonal (18–24° S) where late-glacial climate was moderately cold but very humid.The reconstructed case study glaciers at 29° S do not allow conclusions to be drawn about the seasonality of precipitation. However, comparison with regional paleodata suggests intensified westerly winter precipitation and a stable position for the northern boundary of the westerlies at 27° S. However, the meridional precipitation gradients were much steeper than today while the core area of the Arid Diagonal remained fixed between 25–27° S.  相似文献   

20.
The Institute of Atmospheric Physics Land Surface Model (IAP94) has been incorporated into the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model (IAP GCM). Global and regional climatology averaged over the last 25 years of 100 year integrations from the IAP GCM with and without IAP94 (“bucket” scheme) is compared. The simulated results are also compared with the reanalysis data. Major findings are:(1) The IAP GCM simulation without IAP94 has extensive regions of warmer than observed surface air tempera?tures, while the simulation with IAP94 very much improves the surface air temperature.(2) The IAP GCM simulation with IAP94 gives improvement of the simulated precipitation pattern and intensity, especially the precipitation of East Asian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal migration of the rainbelts.(3) In five selected typical regions, for most of the surface variables such as surface air temperature, precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, net radiation, latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, the IAP GCM with IAP94 pro?vides better simulations.  相似文献   

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