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1.
Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. It is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5° resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m−2 year−1. By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people.  相似文献   

2.
In this study, we report on the validation of process-based forest growth and carbon and nitrogen model of TRIPLEX against observed data, and the use of the model to investigate the potential impacts and interaction of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 on forest net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon budgets in northeast of China. The model validation results show that the simulated tree total volume, NPP, total biomass and soil carbon are consistent with observed data across the Northeast of China, demonstrating that the improved TRIPLEX model is able to simulate forest growth and carbon dynamics of the boreal and temperate forest ecosystems at regional scale. The climate change would increase forest NPP and biomass carbon but decrease overall soil carbon under all three climate change scenarios. The combined effects of climate change and CO2 fertilization on the increase of NPP were estimated to be 10–12% for 2030s and 28–37% in 2090s. The simulated effects of CO2 fertilization significantly offset the soil carbon loss due to climate change alone. Overall, future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 would have a significant impact on the forest ecosystems of Northeastern China.  相似文献   

3.
We have analyzed 17 yr (1982–1998) of net carbon flux predictions from a simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover. The NASA-CASA model was driven by vegetation cover properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We report that although the terrestrial ecosystem sink for atmospheric CO2 for the Eurasian region has been fairly consistent at between 0.3 and 0.6 Pg C per year since 1988, high interannual variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes can be readily identified at locations across the continent. Ten major areas of highest variability in NEP were detected: eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan states, Scandinavia, northern and western Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia and western China, and central India. Analysis of climate anomalies over this 17-yr time period suggests that variability in precipitation and surface solar irradiance could be associated with trends in carbon sink fluxes within such regions of high NEP variability.  相似文献   

4.
A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 1982 to 1998. The NASA–CASA model was driven by vegetation properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the terrestrial biosphere, predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO2 has varied widely between an annual source of −0.9 Pg C per year and a sink of +2.1 Pg C per year. The southern hemisphere tropical zones (SHT, between 0° and 30°S) have a major influence over the predicted global trends in interannual variability of NEP. In contrast, the terrestrial NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 on the North American (NA) continent has been fairly consistent between +0.2 and +0.3 Pg C per year, except during relatively cool annual periods when continental NEP fluxes are predicted to total to nearly zero. The predicted NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 over Eurasia (EA) increased notably in the late 1980s and has been fairly consistent between +0.3 and +0.55 Pg C per year since 1988. High correlations can be detected between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicted NEP fluxes on the EA continent and for the SHT latitude zones, whereas NEP fluxes for the North American continent as a whole do not correlate strongly with ENSO events over the same time series since 1982. These observations support the hypothesis that regional climate warming has had notable but relatively small-scale impacts on high latitude ecosystem (tundra and boreal) sinks for atmospheric CO2.  相似文献   

5.
Tree ring chronologies provide long-term records of growth in natural environmental conditions and may be used to evaluate impacts of climatic change and CO2 increase on forest productivity. This study focuses on 21 Pinus halepensis forest stands in calcareous Provence (in the south-east of France). A chronology of net primary productivity (NPP) both for the 20th century and for each stand was estimated using tree ring data (width and density). The response of each stand to climate in terms of NPP was statistically modelled using response functions. Anomalies between estimated NPP and NPP reconstructed by response functions were calculated to evaluate the fertilising effect of CO2 increase on tree growth. The changes in anomalies during the 20th century were attributed to the effect of CO2 increase. A multiplying factor (β) linking CO2 concentration and stand productivity was then calculated, on the basis of the trend observed during the 20th century. In this study, the value of the β factor obtained under natural conditions (β=0.50) is consistent with those from controlled CO2 enrichment experiments. Both response functions and the β factor were used to predict NPP changes for a 2×CO2 scenario. The 2×CO2 climate was obtained using predictions from Météo France's ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaled to Marseilles meteorological station. NPP increased significantly for nine stands solely when the climatic effect was taken into account. The main factors responsible for this enhancement were increased winter and early spring temperatures. When the fertilising effect of the CO2 increase was added, NPP was significantly enhanced for 14 stands (i.e. NPP enhancement ranged from 8% to 55%). Although the effects of global change were slightly detectable during the 20th century, their acceleration is likely to lead to great changes in the future productivity of P. halepensis forests.  相似文献   

6.
Based on the astronomical ephemerides DE-406, theoretical calculations have been performed of the interannual variability of the Earth’s insolation related to celestial-mechanical processes for 365 points of a tropical year in the time period from 1900 to 2050. It has been determined that the average amplitude of variations of the interannual insolation is 0.310 W/m2 (0.023% of the solar constant). The calculated variations are characterized by strict periodicity that corresponds with the length of a synodic month. Connection between the extreme values of the calculated insolation variability and syzygies has been defined. The average amplitude of the calculated variability exceeds by 1.7 times (0.01% of the solar constant) the amplitude of the interannual variability in the 11-year variation of the total Earth’s insolation.  相似文献   

7.
C.B. Leovy 《Icarus》1973,18(1):120-125
A model for exchange of water from the atmosphere to condensing CO2 caps is developed. The rate of water condensation in the caps is assumed to be proportional to the meridional heat flux. It follows that the amount of water condensed in the caps varies inversely with the amount of CO2 condensed. The seasonal phase of the release of water from the caps is not consistent with observed variations in the abundance of atmospheric water. Seasonal variations of atmospheric water abundance are most consistent with vapor exchange between the atmosphere and permafrost in the subtropics. Although water condensation in semipermanent caps is normally very slow, it may take place at a much faster rate at unusually high atmospheric temperatures, such as those produced by absorption of solar radiation by airborne dust.  相似文献   

8.
The global climate–vegetation model HadSM3_TRIFFID has been used to estimate the equilibrium states of climate and vegetation with pre-industrial and last glacial boundary conditions. The present study focuses on the evaluation of the terrestrial biosphere component (TRIFFID) and its response to changes in climate and CO2 concentration. We also show how, by means of a diagnosis of the distribution of plant functional types according to climate parameters (soil temperature, winter temperature, growing-degree days, precipitation), it is possible to get better insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the biosphere model by reference to field knowledge of ecosystems.The model exhibits profound changes between the vegetation distribution at the Last Glacial Maximum and today that are generally consistent with palaeoclimate data, such as the disappearance of the Siberian boreal forest (taiga), an increase in shrub cover in Europe and an increase of the subtropical desert area. The effective equatorial and sub-tropical tree area is reduced by 18%. There is also an increase in cover of wooded species in North-Western Africa and in Mexico. The analysis of bioclimatic relationships turns out to be an efficient method to infer the contributions of different climatic factors to vegetation changes, both at high latitudes, where the position of the boreal treeline appears in this model to be more directly constrained by the water stress than by summer temperature, and in semi-humid areas where the contributions of temperature and precipitation changes may partly compensate each other. Our study also confirms the major contribution of the decrease in CO2 to environmental changes and carbon storage through its selective impact on gross primary productivity of C3 and C4 plants and a reduction by 25% of water-use efficiency. Specifically, the reduction in CO2 concentration increases the amount of precipitation necessary to sustain at least 20% of grass fraction by 50 mm/year; the corresponding threshold for trees is increased by about 150 mm/year. As a consequence, a reduction in CO2 concentration considerably widens the climatic range where grasses and shrubs dominate.  相似文献   

9.
The results of simultaneous measurements of variations of UV radiation (in a band near the hydrogen Lα line, 121.6 nm) and hard X-ray and gamma-ray radiation (50 keV-200 MeV) performed by the VUSS-L and SONG instruments, respectively, onboard the CORONAS-F spacecraft are presented for periods of solar flares. Variations in the Lα ultraviolet radiation during the impulsive phase of a flare are shown to be synchronous with those of hard X-ray radiation. Temporal variations of UV and X-ray fluxes correspond to the progressive heating of higher and higher regions of the solar atmosphere and the energy transfer from the lower layers of the solar atmosphere to the coronal areas of flare regions. The energy of electrons in beams arising during the impulsive phase of flares can be as high as 500 keV. The velocity of the energy propagation from the regions of its release to the upper layers of the solar atmosphere can reach several tens of kilometers per second.  相似文献   

10.
One response of vegetation to future increases in atmospheric CO2 may be a widespread increase in stomatal resistance. Such a response would increase plant water usage efficiency while still allowing CO2 assimilation at current rates. The associated reduction in transpiration rates has the potential of causing significant modifications in climate on regional and global scales.This paper describes the effects of a uniform doubling of the stomatal resistance parameterization in a global climate model (GENESIS). The model includes a land-surface transfer scheme (LSX) that accounts for the physical effects of vegetation, including stomatal resistance and transpiration, which is described in detail in an appendix. The atmospheric general circulation model is a heavily modified version of the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1 with new treatments of clouds, penetrative convection, planetary boundary layer mixing, solar radiation, the diurnal cycle, and semi-Lagrangian transport of water vapor. The other surface models include multi-layer models of soil, snow and sea ice, and a 50-m slab ocean mixed layer.The effects of doubling the stomatal resistance parameterization are largest in heavily forested regions: tropical South America, and parts of the Northern Hemispheric boreal forests in Canada, Russia and Siberia in summer. The primary surface changes are a decrease in evapotranspiration, an increase in upward sensible heat flux, and a surface-air warming. Secondary effects include shifts in the ITCZ which cause large increases in precipitation, soil moisture and runoff in western tropical South America, and decreases in these quantities in northern subtropical Africa. Noticeable changes in relative humidity, cloudiness and meridional circulation occur throughout the troposphere. The global effects on atmospheric temperature and specific humidity are small fractions of those found in other doubled CO2 experiments. However, unlike doubled CO2 the signs of those changes combine to give relatively large reductions in relative humidity and cloudiness. It is suggested that the stomatal-resistance effect and other plant responses to large-scale environmental perturbations should be included in models of future climate.  相似文献   

11.
A one-dimensional model of the Venus thermosphere has been constructed which includes computation of the heating efficiency of solar ultraviolet radiation, heat loss by radiation to space of infrared-active species, thermal transport by molecular and eddy conduction, and viscous dissipation. By comparing model predictions with results obtained from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter space-craft, the results indicate that energy transport parameterized by eddy heat conduction plays a dominant role in determining thermospheric temperature T. It is suggested that there exists a feedback mechanism linking heating and thermospheric circulation such that eddy cooling maintains an asymptotic temperature T∞～300°K for both solar-maximum and solar-minimum conditions. We also study the variation in thermospheric temperature with solar zenith angle, atomic oxygen-mixing ratio, rate of vibrational excitation of CO2 by ground-state O atoms, and the assumed transfer of O(1D) electronic energy to CO2 vibrational energy.  相似文献   

12.
Temporal variations of the Martian ozone density profile at high latitudes have been calculated for an entire Martian year, taking into account the seasonal and diurnal variations in temperature, water vapor and solar radiation. A new technique facilitates the long-term model calculations, including diurnal variations. The result is in better agreement with MARINER 9 observations of the time and magnitude of the seasonal maximum than is the result of the previous seasonal model calculated for the diurnally averaged temperature, water vapor and solar radiation. The large scatter of the MARINER 9 data may be partly experimental, but the effect of surface condition, including the water vapor variability and the surface chemistry, may explain some of the dispersion of the observed data. The predicted diurnal variation is substantial except near solstices, and the nighttime total column density is generally larger than the daytime value. The magnitude of the day-and-night difference and the shape of the diurnal variation change markedly with season. The opposite temporal variation is predicted for ozone density between the upper and lower regions. The model predicts the production of a ozone layer at 35–50 km, which is consistent with observations at low latitudes by MARS-5. The observed ozone density may be explained, if the atmospheric temperature is as low as ～ 140 K or if the atmosphere is subsaturated. Effects of the simultaneous existence of an aerosol layer, also observed by MARS-5, are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

13.
A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NOx at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NOx are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NOx are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NOx can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.  相似文献   

14.
A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.  相似文献   

15.
The energy components of sixteen Soil-Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) schemes were analyzed and intercompared using 10 years of surface meteorological and radiative forcing data from the Red-Arkansas River basin in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Comparisons of simulated surface energy fluxes among models showed that the net radiation and surface temperature generally had the best agreement among the schemes. On an average (annual and monthly) basis, the estimated latent heat fluxes agreed (to within approximate estimation errors) with the latent heat fluxes derived from a radiosonde-based atmospheric budget method for slightly more than half of the schemes. The sensible heat fluxes had larger differences among the schemes than did the latent heat fluxes, and the model-simulated ground heat fluxes had large variations among the schemes. The spatial patterns of the model-computed net radiation and surface temperature were generally similar among the schemes, and appear reasonable and consistent with observations of related variables, such as surface air temperature. The spatial mean patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes were less similar than for net radiation, and the spatial patterns of the ground heat flux vary greatly among the 16 schemes. Generally, there is less similarity among the models in the temporal (interannual) variability of surface fluxes and temperature than there is in the mean fields, even for schemes with similar mean fields.  相似文献   

16.
The vertical thermal structure of a primitive terrestrial atmosphere is investigated with a radiative-convective-photochemical model. The radiative code includes the short wave contribution from water vapor and ozone, and long wave contribution from methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor and ozone. Calculations for an oxygen level of 10?3 PAL and different CO2 levels shows that the water vapor content, and consequently the odd hydrogen concentration, in the stratosphere is controlled by the temperature which is strongly reduced from present values due to the lower ozone content. As a result, depending on the assumed mechanism for controlling the H2O mixing ratio, a considerable feedback is introduced on the ozone columnar density.The same model is used to parameterize the infrared outgoing flux as a function of surface temperature to be used in a two-mode energy balance climate model. This computation is addressed to the question of whether a large amount of carbon dioxide in the primitive atmosphere could be effective in producing a greenhouse effect able to compensate for the Sun's lower luminosity. It is found that with 25 times the present carbon dioxide mixing ratio, due to the ice-albedo feedback mechanism, a decrease of 9% in the solar constant could be enough to produce an ice-covered Earth.  相似文献   

17.
The rate of production of NO in the thermosphere is expected to vary greatly over the course of an 11-year solar cycle because the fluxes of both extreme ultraviolet radiation and auroral particles are known to increase substantially from solar minimum to solar maximum. In the stratosphere, NO participates in a catalytic cycle which constitutes the dominant photochemical destruction mechanism for stratospheric ozone. If appreciable long range transport of NO from the thermosphere to the upper stratosphere occurs, its effects should therefore be manifested in upper atmospheric ozone density variations over the 11-year solar cycle. In this paper, model predictions of the seasonal and latitudinal variations in upper stratospheric O3 associated with NO transport for different levels of solar activity are compared to satellite observations of upper stratospheric ozone abundances.  相似文献   

18.
Forty-seven well exposed photographic plates of Venus which show the spectrum of the carbon dioxide band at 7820Å were obtained at Table Mountain Observatory in September and October 1972. These spectra showed a semiregular four-day variation in the CO2 abundance over the disk of the planet (Young et al., 1974). We also find evidence for temporal variations in the rotational temperature of this band and temperature variations over the disk. The two quantities, CO2 abundance and temperature, do not show any obvious relationship; however, an increase in the temperature usually is accompanied by a decrease in the abundance of CO2. The average temperature, found from a curve-of-growth analysis assuming a constant CO2 line width, is 249±1.4K (one standard deviation). This temperature is noticeably higher than the rotational temperature of 242±2K found for this same band in 1967 (Schorn et al., 1969) and of 242±1.2K in 1968–1969 (Young et al., 1971).  相似文献   

19.
The absorption spectrum and thermal radiation fluxes are calculated for the lower atmosphere of Venus in the far-wing approximation based on the theory of the collisional broadening of spectral lines. The results are in good agreement with the available experimental data. An outgoing thermal radiation flux is about 2.6 W/m2 near the planetary surface. This indicates that free convection significantly contributes to the thermal balance of the lower troposphere. The fluxes obtained in this study were compared to those calculated on the basis of empirical models of the spectral line profile. It was shown that the far wings of the CO2 lines considerably affect the radiative transfer in the transparency windows. This effect becomes weaker when the contribution of the absorption of minor constituents, primarily water vapor, increases. The profiles of absorption lines of minor constituents do not influence the thermal radiation fluxes.__________Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2005, pp. 214–226.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Afanasenko, Rodin.  相似文献   

20.
The solar ultraviolet irradiance measurements in the 120–400 nm wavelength range are reviewed and compared showing still important discrepancies between the irradiance values deduced from the most recent observations.The possible variations of the solar ultraviolet irradiances with the 27-day rotation period of the Sun and with the 11-year activity cycle are presented and discussed on the basis of the available irradiation fluxes obtained during the rising phase of solar cycle 21.The spectral features of both kinds of variation are clearly related to the solar atmospheric layer from which the corresponding radiation is emitted.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.  相似文献   

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