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1.
An unstructured grid storm surge model of the west coast of Britain, incorporating a high-resolution representation of the
Mersey estuary is used to examine storm surge dynamics in the region. The focus of the study is the major surge that occurred
during the period 11–14 November 1977, which has been investigated previously using uniform grid finite difference models
and a finite element model of the west coast of Britain. However, none of these models included the Mersey estuary. Comparison
of solutions in the eastern Irish Sea with those computed with these earlier models showed that, away from the Liverpool Bay
region, the inclusion of the Mersey estuary had little effect. However, at the entrance to the Mersey, its inclusion did influence
the solution. By including a detailed representation of the Mersey estuary within the model, it was possible to conduct a
detailed study of storm surge propagation in the Mersey, which had never previously been performed. This detailed study showed
for the first time that the surge’s temporal variability within the estuary is influenced by surge elevation at its entrance.
This varies with time as a function of spatial and temporal variations of wind stress over the west coast of Britain. Within
the Mersey, calculations show that the spatial variability is mainly determined by changes in bottom topography, which had
not been included in earlier finite difference models. However, since water depth is influenced by variations in tidal elevation,
this, together with tide surge interaction through bottom friction and momentum advection, influences the surge. The ability
of the finite element model to vary the mesh in near-shore regions to such an extent that it can resolve the Mersey and hence
the impact of the Mersey estuary upon the Liverpool Bay circulation shows that it has distinct advantages over earlier finite
difference models. In the absence of detailed measurements within the Mersey at the time of the surge, it was not possible
to validate predicted surge elevations within the Mersey. However, significant insight into physical processes influencing
the surge propagation down the estuary, its reflection and spatial/temporal variability could be gained. 相似文献
2.
A variable mesh finite element model of the Irish and Celtic Sea regions with/without the inclusion of the Mersey estuary is used to examine the influence of grid resolution and the Mersey upon the higher harmonics of the tide in the region. Comparisons are made with observations and published results from finite difference models of the area. Although including a high resolution representation of the Mersey had little effect upon computed tides in the western Irish Sea it had a significant effect upon tidal currents in the eastern Irish Sea. In addition the higher harmonics of the M2 tide in near-shore regions of the eastern Irish Sea particularly the Solway and Mersey estuary together with Morecambe Bay showed significant small scale variability. The Mersey was used to test the sensitivity to including estuaries because high resolution accurate topography was available. The results presented here suggest that comparable detailed topographic data sets are required in all estuaries and near-shore regions. In addition comparisons clearly show the need for an unstructured grid model of the region that can include all the estuaries. Such an unstructured grid solution was developed here within a finite element approach, although other methods in particular the finite volume, or coordinate transformations/curvilinear grids and nesting could be applied. 相似文献
3.
The problem of resolving or parameterising small-scale processes in oceanographic models and the extent to which small-scale
effects influence the large scale are briefly discussed and illustrated for a number of cases. For tides and surges in near-shore
regions, the advantages of using a graded mesh to resolve coastal and estuarine small-scale features are demonstrated in terms
of a west coast of Britain unstructured mesh model. The effect of mesh resolution upon the accuracy of the overall solution
is illustrated in terms of a finite element model of the Irish Sea and Mersey estuary. For baroclinic motion at high Froude
number, the effect of resolving small-scale topography within a non-hydrostatic model is illustrated in terms of tidally induced
mixing at a single sill, or two closely spaced sills. The question of how to parameterise small-scale non-linear interaction
processes that lead to significant mixing, in a form suitable for coarser grid hydrostatic models, is briefly considered.
In addition, the importance of topographically induced mixing that occurs in the oceanic lateral boundary layer, namely, the
shelf edge upon the large-scale ocean circulation is discussed together with the implications for coarse grid oceanic climate
models. The use of unstructured grids in these models to enhance resolution in shelf-edge regions in a similar manner to that
used in storm surge models to enhance near coastal resolution is suggested as a suitable “way forward” in large-scale ocean
circulation modelling. 相似文献
4.
《Continental Shelf Research》2006,26(12-13):1519-1541
Initially a brief overview of the problem of computing the wind-induced circulation on the west coast of Britain is reviewed together with storm surge modelling. To date this work has primarily been performed with finite difference models. However, here new work is presented using a finite element model with a range of mesh refinements in shallow water regions to examine the influence of mesh resolution upon the wind-induced circulation off the west coast of Britain. Steady state current fields are computed for uniform westerly and southerly winds and compared with a uniform grid (of order 7 km) finite difference model solution. Calculations show that in deep water regions away from the coastal influence, the large-scale circulation features in the finite element solution are in good agreement with those found in the finite difference model. This suggests that they can be adequately resolved on a 7 km mesh. In the nearshore region and within estuaries a significantly finer mesh is required, with the variable mesh finite element model showing significant small scale variability in the nearshore area. Refining the mesh in the Mersey and using an accurate topographic data set, shows that although the larger scale features in the estuary can be resolved in the coarser mesh model, accurate topography is required to model their exact location. In addition smaller scale features are found that were not resolved in the coarser mesh models. Due to the effects of “wetting and drying” and the importance of non-linear processes in shallow regions difficulties occurred in de-tiding the full solution in order to determine the wind forced residual. Determining the wind forced solution in shallow water from a calculation in which wind and tidal forcing are included poses problems as to how to “de-tide” the solution in such a highly non-linear region. An approach based upon the harmonic analysis of the total solution, rather than subtracting a “tide only” solution is shown to be most effective and has implications for storm surge prediction.General and specific conclusions on the importance of highly accurate bathymetry, good mesh resolution and de-tiding method upon the accuracy of the wind forced solution in nearshore regions are summarized in the final part of the paper. The implications for storm surge prediction together with suggestions for future research to enhance the accuracy of storm surge prediction, namely “the way forward” are given at the end of the paper. 相似文献
5.
An unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, covering the same domain and using topography and open boundary forcing
that are identical to a previous validated uniform grid finite difference model of the region, is used to compare the performance
of a finite volume (FV) and a finite element (FE) model of the area in determining tide–surge interaction in the region. Initial
calculations show that although qualitatively both models give comparable tidal solutions in the region, comparison with observations
shows that the FV model tends to under-estimate tidal amplitudes and hence background tidal friction in the eastern Irish
Sea. Storm surge elevations in the eastern Irish Sea due to westerly, northerly and southerly uniform wind stresses computed
with the FV model tend to be slightly higher than those computed with the FE model, due to differences in background tidal
friction. However, both models showed comparable non-linear tide–surge interaction effects for all wind directions, suggesting
that they can reproduce the extensive tide–surge interaction processes that occur in the eastern Irish Sea. Following on from
this model comparison study, the physical processes contributing to surge generation and tide–surge interaction in the region
are examined. Calculations are performed with uniform wind stresses from a range of directions, and the balance of various
terms in the hydrodynamic equations is examined. A detailed comparison of the spatial variability of time series of non-linear
bottom friction and non-linear momentum advection terms at six adjacent nodes at two locations in water depths of 20 and 6 m
showed some spatial variability from one node to another. This suggests that even in the near coastal region, where water
depths are of the order of 6 m and the mesh is fine (of order 0.5 km), there is significant spatial variability in the non-linear
terms. In addition, distributions of maximum bed stress due to tides and wind forcing in nearshore regions show appreciable
spatial variability. This suggests that intensive measurement campaigns and very high-resolution mesh models are required
to validate and reproduce the non-linear processes that occur in these regions and to predict extreme bed stresses that can
give rise to sediment movement. High-resolution meshes will also be required in pollution transport problems. 相似文献
6.
A coarse-grid (resolution of order 7 km) model of the west coast of Britain is used to examine the sensitivity of computed storm-surge elevations and currents to a range of open-boundary conditions. The storm-surge period 1 to 26 March 1994 is used for this comparison, as it is a time of significant wind activity. Also current measurements in the North Channel of the Irish Sea together with coastal elevation measurements are available for model validation. Elevations and currents previously computed with a coarse-grid shelf-wide model can also be incorporated into the open-boundary condition to examine the influence of far-field effects. Initial model calculations with no far-field input show the importance of including shelf-wide effects from either the external shelf model, or by using observations from coastal gauges interpolated along the open boundary of the west-coast model. Provided the west-coast models open boundary is taken sufficiently far away from the region of interest, in this case the Irish Sea, then either a radiation condition or an elevation-specified condition is appropriate provided far-field effects are taken into account. If these are not included, then neither boundary condition is successful. For the radiation condition it is necessary to include both elevations and currents from a far-field model in order to reproduce the surge. In the case of an elevation-specified boundary condition far-field effects can be incorporated in hindcast calculations by including observed sea-level changes. In a storm-surge prediction calculation the radiation condition with a far-field model is required. Calculations show that computed elevations are spatially more coherent than currents, with flows through the western Irish Sea showing the greatest sensitivity to open-boundary formulation during storm events.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke 相似文献
7.
An irregular mesh model of the west coast of Britain is used to examine the sensitivity of tidal residuals to mesh resolution in the region. Computed residuals are compared with earlier published results determined with a high resolution (1 km grid) finite difference model of the eastern Irish Sea. Initial calculations show that tidal residuals are largest in nearshore regions particularly in the vicinity of headlands. Local refinement of the mesh in these regions leads to a more detailed picture of the flow field, particularly adjacent to the coast. Although large scale offshore features of the flow can be resolved using the high resolution finite difference model, such an approach leads to a “stair case” representation of the coastal boundary with an adjacent near coastal region of spurious tidal residuals. By using an irregular mesh that follows the coast, this effect is removed. In the Mersey river region the tidal residual is resolved with a mesh resolution of 120 m, although calculations show that its distribution is particularly sensitive to small scale features of the topography. A variable mesh that can accurately represent the lateral variations in river width and details of topography in both the nearshore and estuarine environment appears essential in modelling the coastal spread of freshwater plumes from rivers and pollutants discharged into the near coastal environment. 相似文献
8.
Storm surge computations for the west coast of Britain using a finite element model (TELEMAC) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
An unstructured mesh finite element model of the sea region off the west coast of Britain is used to examine the storm surge event of November 1977. This period is chosen because accurate meteorological data to drive the model and coastal observations for validation purposes are available. In addition, previous published results from a coarse-grid (resolution 7 km) finite difference model of the region and high-resolution (1 km) limited area (namely eastern Irish Sea) model are available for comparison purposes. To enable a “like with like” comparison to be made, the finite element model covers the same domain and has the same meteorological forcing as these earlier finite difference models. In addition, the mesh is based on an identical set of water depths. Calculations show that the finite element model can reproduce both the “external” and “internal” components of the surge in the region. This shows that the “far field” (external) component of the surge can accurately propagate through the irregular mesh, and the model responds accurately, without over- or under-damping, to local wind forcing. Calculations show significant temporal and spatial variability in the surge in close agreement with that found in earlier finite difference calculations. In addition, root mean square errors between computed and observed surge are comparable to those found in previous finite different calculations. The ability to vary the mesh in nearshore regions reveals appreciable small-scale variability that was not found in the previous finite difference solutions. However, the requirement to perform a “like with like” comparison using the same water depths means that the full potential of the unstructured grid model to improve resolution in the nearshore region is inhibited. This is clearly evident in the Mersey estuary region where a higher resolution unstructured mesh model, forced with uniform winds, had shown high topographic variability due to small-scale variations in topography that are not resolved here. Despite the lack of high resolution in the nearshore region, the model showed results that were consistent with the previous storm surge models of the region. Calculations suggest that to improve on these earlier results, a finer nearshore mesh is required based upon accurate nearshore topography. 相似文献
9.
Numerical study of the barotropic responses to a rapidly moving typhoon in the East China Sea 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Yang Ding Huaming Yu Xianwen Bao Liang Kuang Caixia Wang Wenjuan Wang 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(9):1237-1259
Barotropic responses of the East China Sea to typhoon KOMPASU are investigated using a high-resolution, three-dimensional,
primitive equation, and finite volume coastal ocean model. Even the fact that the typhoon KOMPASU only brushed across the
brink of China mainland without landing, it still imposed great influence across China's east coastal area, where storm surges
ranging from 35 to 70 cm were intrigued during this event and a large wake of water setdown due to the outward radial transport
driven by the cyclonic wind stress was generated after the KOMPASU traveled across the Yellow Sea. Analysis of the numerical
results reveals that the barotropic waves propagating along the coast after the typhoon's landing can be identified as Kelvin
wave and the currents associated with the storm are geostrophic currents. A series of model runs are initiated to diagnose
the effects of wind stress, atmospheric pressure, and storm track variation on the surge's spatial distribution in the East
China Sea. The barotropic waves affected by the atmospheric disturbance due to the typhoon in deep Pacific Ocean travel far
more rapidly, arriving at the coastal regions at least 60 h ahead of the typhoon. The wave amplitudes are merely 0.2–0.4 cm
and damp gradually due to friction. The model experiments also confirm that the surge levels in nearshore regions are highly
dominated by winds, whereas the water level variations in deeper areas are controlled by the atmospheric pressure forcing
during typhoon events in the East China Sea. 相似文献
10.
We revisit the surge of November 1977, a storm event which caused damage on the Sefton coast in NW England. A hindcast has been made with a coupled surge-tide-wave model, to investigate whether a wave-dependent surface drag is necessary for accurate surge prediction, and also if this can be represented by an optimised Charnock parameter. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Modelling System-Wave Model (POLCOMS-WAM) has been used to model combined tides, surges, waves and wave-current interaction in the Irish Sea on a 1.85 km grid. This period has been previously thoroughly studied, e.g. Jones and Davies [Jones, J.E., Davies, A.M., 1998. Storm surge computations for the Irish Sea using a three-dimensional numerical model including wave-current interaction. Continental Shelf Research 18(2), 201–251] and we build upon this previous work to validate the POLCOMS-WAM model to test the accuracy of surge elevation predictions in the study area. A one-way nested approach has been set up from larger scale models to the Irish Sea model. It was demonstrated that (as expected) swell from the North Atlantic does not have a significant impact in the eastern Irish Sea. To capture the external surge generated outside of the Irish Sea a (1/9° by 1/6°) model extending beyond the continental shelf edge was run using the POLCOMS model for tide and surge. 相似文献
11.
A three-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, with high resolution in the coastal regions, is used to investigate the role of wind wave turbulence and wind and tide forced currents in producing maximum bed stress in the eastern Irish Sea. The spatial distribution of the maximum bed stress, which is important in sediment transport problems, is determined, together with how it is modified by the direction of wind forced currents, tide–surge interaction and a surface source of wind wave turbulence associated with wave breaking. Initial calculations show that to first order the distribution of maximum bed stress is determined by the tide. However, since maximum sediment transport occurs at times of episodic events, such as storm surges, their effects upon maximum bed stresses are examined for the case of strong northerly, southerly and westerly wind forcing. Calculations show that due to tide–surge interaction both the tidal distribution and the surge are modified by non-linear effects. Consequently, the magnitude and spatial distribution of maximum bed stress during major wind events depends upon wind direction. In addition calculations show that a surface source of turbulence due to wind wave breaking in shallow water can influence the maximum bed stress. In turn, this influences the wind forced flow and hence the movement of suspended sediment. Calculations of the spatial variability of maximum bed stress indicate the level of measurements required for model validation. 相似文献
12.
The Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in South China's Guangdong Province is a subtropical estuary with highly irregular topography
and dynamically complicated circulations. A nested-grid coastal circulation modelling system is used in this study to examine
dynamic responses of the PRE to tides, meteorological forcing and buoyancy forcing. The nested-grid modelling system is based
on the Princeton Ocean Model and consists of three downscaling subcomponents: including an outer-most model with a coarse
horizontal resolution of ~7 km for simulating tidally forced and wind-driven surface elevations and depth-mean currents over
the China Seas from Bohai Sea to the northern South China Sea and an innermost model with a fine resolution of ~1.2 km for
simulating the 3D coastal circulation and hydrography over the PRE and adjacent coastal waters. Model results during the winter
northeast monsoon surge in January and super typhoon Koryn in June of 1993 are used to demonstrate that the 3D coastal circulation
and hydrographic distributions in the PRE are affected by tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with river discharge
from the Pearl River with significant seasonal and synoptic variabilities. 相似文献
13.
Mercury concentrations in surface intertidal sediments from estuarine and coastal environments of the Northeastern Irish Sea are reported. This region has two inputs of mercury contaminated effluents from chlor-alkali factories, and localized mercury contamination of sediments fairly similar to that reported for the Rhine has been found in the Wyre estuary. The present results for the Mersey estuary agree well with others reported in the lierature. Coastal sediments are much less contaminated than the estuarine deposits, and in all the environments studied strong correlations between mercury concentration, total organic carbon and < 63 μm grainsize fraction contents have been found. 相似文献
14.
A two-dimensional coupled tide-surge model was used to investigate the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. In order to estimate the impacts of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations, Typhoon 7203 was assumed to arrive at 12 different times, with all other conditions remaining constant. This allowed simulation of tide and total water levels for 12 separate cases. Numerical simulation results for Yingkou, Huludao, Shijiusuo, and Lianyungang tidal stations were analyzed. Model results showed wide variations in storm surge elevations across the 12 cases. The largest difference between 12 extreme storm surge elevation values was of up to 58 cm and occurred at Yingkou tidal station. The results indicate that the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations are very significant. It is therefore essential that these are taken into account when predicting storm surge elevations. 相似文献
15.
S. K. Dube P. C. Sinha A. D. Rao Indu Jain Neetu Agnihotri 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(8-9):1673-1688
River-ocean coupled models are described for the evaluation of the interaction between river discharge and surge development along the Orissa coast of India. The models are used to study the effect of fresh water discharge from the Mahanadi River on the surge response along the Orissa coast due to the October 1999 super cyclone which led to severe flooding of the coastal and delta regions of Orissa. The so-called 1999 Paradip cyclone was one of the most severe cyclones; causing extensive damage to property and loss of lives. The present study emphasizes the impact of the Mahanadi River on overall surge development along the Orissa coast. Therefore, we have developed a location specific fine resolution model for the Orissa coast and coupled it with a one–dimensional river model. The numerical experiments are carried out, both with and without inclusion of fresh water discharge from the river. The bathymetry for the model has been taken from the naval hydrographic charts extending from the south of Orissa to the south of west Bengal. A simple drying scheme has also been included in the model in order to avoid the exposure of land near the coast due to strong negative sea-surface elevations. The simulations with river-ocean coupled models show that the discharge of fresh water carried by the river may modify the surge height in the Bay, especially in the western Bay of Bengal where one of the largest river systems of the east coast of India, the Mahanadi River, joins with the Bay of Bengal. Another dynamic effect of this inlet is the potentially deep inland penetration of the surge originating in the Bay. The model results are in good agreement with the available observations/estimates. 相似文献
16.
The Danish Maritime Safety Administration (DaMSA) provides forecast of elevations, currents, and other parameters to the maritime
society. Accurate and reliable predictions are important to help navigate Danish waters in a safe manner, and the forecasts
are routinely used by the Vessel Traffic Services in the Great Belt and the Sound. The DaMSA model setup includes three nested
models, with coarse resolution in the North Atlantic and increasing to 600 m in the Belt Sea and South West Baltic. Observations
of some special events in late 2009 drew attention to a possible relation between Atlantic-scale surge events and small-scale
currents in the Danish Straits. During the special event with large-scale surge, the observed southward moving current in
the Danish Straits was 0.5–2.0 m/s for several days, while the operational model showed a much smaller response. As a consequence,
the entire DaMSA model complex was revised during 2010. Multi-annual reruns have showed that with the updated model, the explained
variance of the current increases from 67% to 88%. 相似文献
17.
It is believed that, in the future, the intensity and frequency of extreme coastal flooding events may increase as a result
of climate change. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project, Coastal
Flooding by Extreme Events and EU FP7 Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks Induced by Extreme Storm Events project are
investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea, an area that includes most of England’s coastal types. Using a previously
modelled and validated historical extreme surge event, in November 1977, we now investigate the changes in peak surge as a
result of possible future climate conditions. In order to simulate the surge, we have set up a one-way nested approach, using
the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System 3D baroclinic model, from a domain covering the whole
NW European continental shelf, through to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model; both areas are forced by tides, atmospheric pressure
and winds. We use this modelling system to investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and increased sea levels on
the peak surge elevation and residual current pattern. The results show that sea level rise has greater potential to increase
surge levels than increased wind speeds. 相似文献
18.
Three finite element codes, namely TELEMAC, ADCIRC and QUODDY, are used to compute the spatial distributions of the M2, M4 and M6 components of the tide in the sea region off the west coast of Britain. This region is chosen because there is an accurate
topographic dataset in the area and detailed open boundary M2 tidal forcing for driving the model. In addition, accurate solutions (based upon comparisons with extensive observations)
using uniform grid finite difference models forced with these open boundary data exist for comparison purposes. By using boundary
forcing, bottom topography and bottom drag coefficients identical to those used in an earlier finite difference model, there
is no danger of comparing finite element solutions for “untuned unoptimised solutions” with those from a “tuned optimised
solution”. In addition, by placing the open boundary in all finite element calculations at the same location as that used
in a previous finite difference model and using the same M2 tidal boundary forcing and water depths, a like with like comparison of solutions derived with the various finite element
models was possible. In addition, this open boundary was well removed from the shallow water region, namely the eastern Irish
Sea where the higher harmonics were generated. Since these are not included in the open boundary, forcing their generation
was determined by physical processes within the models. Consequently, an inter-comparison of these higher harmonics generated
by the various finite element codes gives some indication of the degree of variability in the solution particularly in coastal
regions from one finite element model to another. Initial calculations using high-resolution near-shore topography in the
eastern Irish Sea and including “wetting and drying” showed that M2 tidal amplitudes and phases in the region computed with TELEMAC were in good agreement with observations. The ADCIRC code
gave amplitudes about 30 cm lower and phases about 8° higher. For the M4 tide, in the eastern Irish Sea amplitudes computed with TELEMAC were about 4 cm higher than ADCIRC on average, with phase
differences of order 5°. For the M6 component, amplitudes and phases showed significant small-scale variability in the eastern Irish Sea, and no clear bias between
the models could be found. Although setting a minimum water depth of 5 m in the near-shore region, hence removing wetting
and drying, reduced the small-scale variability in the models, the differences in M2 and M4 tide between models remained. For M6, a significant reduction in variability occurred in the eastern Irish Sea when a minimum 5-m water depth was specified. In
this case, TELEMAC gave amplitudes that were 1 cm higher and phases 30° lower than ADCIRC on average. For QUODDY in the eastern
Irish Sea, average M2 tidal amplitudes were about 10 cm higher and phase 8° higher than those computed with TELEMAC. For M4, amplitudes were approximately 2 cm higher with phases of order 15° higher in the northern part of the region and 15° lower
in the southern part. For M6 in the north of the region, amplitudes were 2 cm higher and about 2 cm lower in the south. Very rapid M6 tidal-phase changes occurred in the near-shore regions. The lessons learned from this model inter-comparison study are summarised
in the final section of the paper. In addition, the problems of performing a detailed model–model inter-comparison are discussed,
as are the enormous difficulties of conducting a true model skill assessment that would require detailed measurements of tidal
boundary forcing, near-shore topography and precise knowledge of bed types and bed forms. Such data are at present not available. 相似文献
19.
An unstructured mesh tidal model of the west coast of Britain, covering the Celtic Sea and Irish Sea is used to compare tidal distributions computed with finite element (FE) and finite volume (FV) models. Both models cover an identical region, use the same mesh, and have topography and tidal boundary forcing from a finite difference model that can reproduce the tides in the region. By this means, solutions from both models can be compared without any bias towards one model or another. Two-dimensional calculations show that for a given friction coefficient, there is more damping in the FV model than the FE model. As bottom friction coefficient is reduced, the two models show comparable changes in tidal distributions. In terms of mesh resolution, calculations show that for the M2 tide, the mesh is sufficiently fine to yield an accurate solution over the whole domain. However, in terms of higher harmonics of the tide, in particular the M6 component, its small-scale variability in near-shore regions which is comparable to the mesh of the model, suggests that the mesh resolution is insufficient in the near-coastal regions. Even with a finer mesh in these areas, without detailed bottom topography and a spatial varying friction depending on bed types and bed forms, which is not available, model skill would probably not be improved. In addition in the near-shore region, as shown in the literature, the solution is sensitive to the form of the wetting/drying algorithm used in the model. Calculations with a 3D version of the FV model show that for a given value of k, damping is reduced compared to the 2D version due to the differences in bed stress formulation, with the 3D model yielding an accurate tidal distribution over the region. 相似文献
20.
The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes. 相似文献