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1.
The COVID-19 pandemic has further fuelled problems of debt sustainability in developing countries and has sapped the fiscal resources needed to finance climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. We examine whether “debt-for-climate” swaps, instruments whereby debtor countries are relieved from their contractual debt obligations in return for local climate-related spending commitments, may be helpful in tackling worrying debt levels and climate concerns simultaneously. We point out that debt swaps do not have a great historical track record but that common flaws such as their piecemeal nature, lack of additionality and creation of parallel implementation structures, could be overcome by scaling up and careful design. To realize swaps’ full potential, a distinction needs to be made between situations where debt is clearly unsustainable and where it is high but sustainable. In the former case, deep and comprehensive debt restructuring should be the primary focus, rather than closely matching debt service savings with increased climate spending; in the latter case, stand-alone debt swaps may be used to transfer resources from creditors to debtor countries that are committed to climate investments but lack fiscal space. Another helpful differentiation is that between middle-income debtor countries, where debt swaps could finance climate mitigation interventions, and low-income debtors, where investments in adaption deserve prioritization. Finally, debt swap proposals need to be mindful of creditor incentives, including positive reputational payoffs, achieving greater scale using a multi-creditor set-up, at the same time as carefully considering governance credentials in each country context. 相似文献
2.
The agricultural use and conversion of tropical peatlands is considered a major source of land-based greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, the protection and restoration of tropical peatlands has recently turned into an important strategy to mitigate global climate change. Little research exists that has investigated the impacts and dynamics that such climate mitigation efforts evoke in local communities living in and around peatlands. We present insights on this from Sumatra, Indonesia and use a climate justice lens to evaluate local outcomes. We show how an increasingly transnational network of state and non-state actors has become involved in developing new laws, policy programs and land-use agreements on Sumatra’s coastal peatlands, aiming at supposedly win–win low-carbon development pathways. We argue that such efforts are open to much of the same criticism that has been raised regarding previous policies and projects aimed at reducing GHGE from deforestation and forest degradation. These projects disregard local perspectives on development, fail to deliver the promised benefits and, through a reconfiguration of local land-use rights, reduce the capabilities of smallholder farmers to benefit from their land. In sum, our analysis suggests that recent policies and projects aimed at mitigating GHGE from tropical peatlands contribute to a redistribution of the global climate mitigation burden onto smallholder farmers in Indonesia. This occurs through their threefold assignment to protect forests, prevent fires and help restore degraded peatlands. 相似文献
3.
Narrowing research and policy, while challenging, is especially important in climate change adaptation work (CCA) due to the high uncertainties involved in planning for climate change. This article aims to seek stakeholders’ opinions regarding how research and policy development can be bridged within the Cambodian water resources and agriculture sectors. The study used institutional ethnography methods with informants from government organizations, local academia, and development partners (DPs). This article identifies a number of challenges, and barriers for narrowing research–policy development gaps, including: limited effectiveness of governmental policies and planning; lack of relevant information required to promote evidence-based planning and policy development; and communication barriers. Evidence-based planning is valued by government officials most when there is actual and effective implementation of policies and plans. In practice, this often implies that governmental policies and plans need be scoped and scaled down to meet the available budget, and thus be achievable. In the long term, it also means building the capacity for policy-relevant research on climate change adaptation within Cambodia. Engaging policy stakeholders in research process for co-producing adaptation knowledge, and introducing knowledge intermediaries are suggested by informants as means to narrowing gaps between research and policy development. The presence of the Cambodia's Prime Minister in research–policy dialogues is recommended as important for attracting the attention of high-level policy makers.
Policy relevance
As a least developed and highly climate-vulnerable country, Cambodia has received climate change funding to implement a number of climate adaptation initiatives. Cambodia is likely to receive more climate change finance in the future. This article aims to assist evidence-based planning, in particular, through policy-relevant research on CCA, so that resources for adaptation in Cambodia are used effectively and efficiently. This research also directly benefits the sustainable development of the country. 相似文献
4.
应对气候变化南南合作是中国领导人在巴黎气候大会上的庄严承诺,也是体现“十九大”会议精神“成为全球生态文明建设的重要参与者、贡献者、引领者”的具体实践。作为我国重要的对外援助方案,相关研究还比较缺乏。实践中对外援助国的选择通常是根据领导人出访地和一些重要国际会议举办地等确定,缺乏系统性、连续性,这也符合对外援助初级阶段的特征。为了更加高效、系统地推进气候变化南南合作持续开展,产生更好的环境和社会效益,文中基于定量评估的方法学对南南合作优先合作国家的选择开展了讨论。通过专家集体打分与层次分析法确定评价指标及权重,采用阶段阈值法将不同国家在评估指标上的表现转化为定量分值,并进行国家综合得分计算和排名。计算结果显示,南非、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚等国位于潜在受援国前五位,文中还列出了建议优先合作的20个国家及位序。总体来看,排名前20的受援国均属于联合国机制下77+中国集团,90%为“一带一路”倡议参与国,70%是亚投行成员国,评估结论与中国发起的重大合作倡议具有高度的相关性,不仅可以支持应对气候变化南南合作开展,也能呼应和推动中国主导的其他国际议程发展。本文尝试在传统的定性描述和评估为主的领域,引入定量评估研究方法,在研究方法学应用上进行拓展。论文研究结论可以为相关部门选择应对气候变化南南合作优先合作国家提供参考。 相似文献
5.
We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction
about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid
reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.
However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified
in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to
climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact
on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development
Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas
tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation
via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy
could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries
that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption
substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar.
Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning
are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries
has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are
valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate
budget line for such activities to avoid “obfuscation” of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless,
mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success.
Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy
to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. 相似文献
6.
A. E. C. Duker T. M. Tadesse T. Soentoro C. de Fraiture J. S. Kemerink-Seyoum 《Climate Policy》2019,19(6):S36-S46
ABSTRACTChanges in agricultural practices can play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation by reducing the need for land use change as one of the biggest sources of GHG emissions, and by enabling carbon sequestration in farmers’ fields. Expansion of smallholder and commercial agriculture is often one of the main driving forces behind deforestation and forest degradation. However, mitigation programmes such as REDD+ are geared towards conservation efforts in the forestry sector without prominently taking into account smallholder agricultural interests in project design and implementation. REDD+ projects often build on existing re- and afforestation projects without major changes in their principles, interests and assumptions. Informed by case study research and interviews with national and international experts, we illustrate with examples from Ethiopia and Indonesia how REDD+ projects are implemented, how they fail to adequately incorporate the demands of smallholder farmers and how this leads to a loss of livelihoods and diminishing interest in participating in REDD+ by local farming communities. The study shows how the conservation-based benefits and insecure funding base in REDD+ projects do not compensate for the contraction in livelihoods from agriculture. Combined with exclusive benefit-sharing mechanisms, this results in an increased pressure on forest resources, diverging from the principal objective of REDD+. We note a gap between the REDD+ narratives at international level (i.e. coupling development with a climate agenda) and the livelihood interests of farming communities on the ground. We argue that without incorporating agricultural interests and a review of financial incentives in the design of future climate finance mechanisms, objectives of both livelihood improvements and GHG emission reductions will be missed.Key policy insights
REDD+ is positioned as a promising tool to meet climate, conservation and development targets. However, these expectations are not being met in practice as the interests of smallholder farmers are poorly addressed.
REDD+ policy developers and implementers need more focus on understanding the interests and dynamics of smallholder agriculturalists to enable inclusive, realistic and long-lasting projects.
For REDD+ to succeed, funders need to consider how to better ensure long-term livelihood security for farming communities.
7.
Developing countries like India are under international pressure to sign a legally binding emissions treaty to avert catastrophic climatic change. Developing countries, however, have argued that any international agreement must be based on historic and per capita carbon emissions, with developed countries responsible for reducing their emissions first and funding mitigation and adaptation in other countries. Recently, however, several scholars have argued that Indian government climate change discourses are shifting, primarily by recognizing the “co-benefits” of an alignment between its development and climate change objectives, and by displaying increasing “flexibility” on mitigation targets. This study investigates the factors driving shifting Indian discourses of climate change by conducting and analyzing 25 interviews of Indian climate policy elites, including scientists, energy policy experts, leading government officials, journalists, business leaders, and advocates, in addition to analysis of articles published in Economic and Political Weekly (a prominent Indian policy journal), and reports published by the government and other agencies. Our analysis suggests that India’s concerns about increasing energy access and security, along with newer concerns about vulnerability to climate change and the international leadership aspirations of the Indian government, along with emergence of new actors and institutions, has led to plurality of discourses, with potential implications for India’s climate change policies. 相似文献
8.
Assela Pathirana Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan Richard Ashley Nguyen Hong Quan Chris Zevenbergen 《Climatic change》2018,149(1):57-74
Adaptation gaps are shortcomings of a system responding to climate change, whereas adaptation deficits are shortcomings in providing services. These two drivers for adaptation are often in conflict in many secondary cities in the global south (SCGS). It is possible to align these seemingly conflicting drivers into a productive unity, a conceptual alignment, which is the first step in achieving harmony while implementing adaptation actions. This paper focuses on the practical aspects of implementing aligned adaptation action that leads to improvements in liveability, sustainability, and resilience of SCGS. At an abstract level, the nature of the adaptation problem is similar to the complex problems identified in various domains, such as software development, manufacturing, and supply chain management. The widely accepted “agile principles”—used in the above domains—is the basis for developing a set of twelve principles for urban adaptation, which are synthesized from numerous recent studies that have implicitly proposed or applied most of these principles to climate change adaptation in urban settings. These principles lead to four essential objectives appertaining to the process of sustainable urban adaptation. The urban agile principles are used to analyze the current state of adaptation of Can Tho City in Vietnam and to ascertain the agile ways of addressing its adaptation challenges. Analysis of the outcomes shows that harmonized approaches can simultaneously address both adaptation deficits and gaps. 相似文献
9.
Local government has a crucial role to play in climate change adaptation, both delivering adaptation strategies devised from above and coordinating bottom-up action. This paper draws on a unique longitudinal dataset to measure progress in adaptation by local authorities in Britain, comparing results from a national-scale survey and follow-up interviews conducted in 2003 with a second wave of research completed a decade later. Whereas a decade ago local authority staff were unable to find scientific information that they could understand and use, we find that these technical-cognitive barriers to adaptation are no longer a major problem for local authority respondents. Thanks to considerable Government investment in research and science brokerage to improve the quality and accessibility of climate information, local authorities have developed their adaptive capacity, and their staff are now engaging with the ‘right’ kind of information in assessing climate change risks and opportunities. However, better knowledge has not translated into tangible adaptation actions. Local authorities face substantial difficulties in implementing adaptation plans. Budget cuts and a lack of political support from central government have sapped institutional capacity and political appetite to address long-term climate vulnerabilities, as local authorities in Britain now struggle even to deliver their immediate statutory responsibilities. Local authority adaptation has progressed farthest where it has been rebranded as resiliency to extreme weather so as to fit with the focus on immediate risks to delivering statutory duties. In the current political environment, adaptation officers need information about the economic costs of weather impacts to local authority services if they are to build the business case for adaptation and gain the leverage to secure resources and institutional license to implement tangible action. Unless these institutional barriers are addressed, local government is likely to struggle to adapt to a changing climate. 相似文献
10.
11.
The increasing extent and frequency of fires globally requires nuanced understanding of the drivers of large-scale events for improved prevention and mitigation. Yet, the drivers of fires are often poorly understood by various stakeholders in spatially expansive and temporally dynamic landscapes. Further, perceptions about the main cause of fires vary amongst stakeholders, which amplify ongoing challenges from policies being implemented inconsistently across different governance levels. Here, we develop a spatially and temporally-explicit typology of fire prevalence across Kalimantan, Indonesia, a region with significant contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. Based on livelihood information and data on climate, soil type and forest degradation status, we find that in intact forest the density of fires in villages that largely coincide with oil palm concessions was twice as high as in villages outside the concessions across all years. Fires occurring in degraded land on mineral soil across all years were also most prevalent in villages with industrial plantations (oil palm or timber). On the other hand, in degraded peatland, where fires are most intense during dry years induced by the El Niño episodes, occurrence rates were high regardless of village primary livelihoods. Based on these findings we recommend two key priorities for fire mitigation going forward for policy across different governance levels in Kalimantan: degraded peatland as the priority area and industrial plantations as the priority sector. Our study suggests a fire prevention and mitigation approach, which accounts for climate, land type and village livelihood, has the potential to deliver more effective means of management. 相似文献
12.
基于GIS的马铃薯种植气候区划及风险区划的研究 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
利用地理信息技术及气候资源信息，对内蒙古乌盟地区的主要农作物马铃薯做了多项自然资源空间统计分析，并选定了该地区马铃薯种植的气候区划指标和风险指标。这些指标涉及到马铃薯的种植失败风险和减产风险。利用小网格资源推算法，实现了基本气候资源分布的细化。同时借助于CITYSTAR GIS的二次开发功能，用Visual C^ 编制模型，进行马铃薯气候资源区划和种植风险程度区划的地理制作。研究结果可供农业种植规划部门及农业保险部门使用。 相似文献
13.
Climate change and development are strongly interconnected. An efficient use of financial resources would, thus require alignment between climate finance and development priorities, as set out in the context of both the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this paper, we investigate to what extent climate-related official development assistance (ODA) before and after the Paris Agreement adoption supports the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, we assess to what extent donors align this finance with recipient countries’ climate-related priorities as spelled out in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). First, we find that climate-relevant ODA contributes to multiple SDGs, above all SDG 7 (energy) and SDG 11 (cities). Second, we find that there is substantial alignment between donors’ and recipients’ SDG priorities, but that this alignment has not improved in recent years, since the conclusion of the Paris Agreement. Third, we find that albeit climate-finance continues to be allocated more to climate-change mitigation than to adaptation, the difference became smaller in recent years. This reduced the misalignment with recipient countries’ NDC climate activities, which focus more on adaptation than mitigation. Overall, we identify coherence, gaps and opportunities for further alignment of climate and development actions, and related finance. Such an alignment is essential to increase the likelihood of implementation of the two international agreements and to ensure that action is guided by recipient countries’ needs. 相似文献
14.
Scaling up national climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement is critical not only to reduce risk, but also to contribute to a nation’s development. Traditional adaptation assessments are aimed at evaluating adaptation to cost-effectively reduce risk and do not capture the far-reaching benefits of adaptation in the context of development and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By grounding adaptation planning in an SDG vision, we propose and demonstrate a methodological process that for the first time allows national decision-makers to: i) quantify the adaptation that is needed to safeguard SDG target progress, and ii) evaluate strategies of stakeholder-driven adaptation options to meet those needs whilst delivering additional SDG target co-benefits. This methodological process is spatially applied to a national adaptation assessment in Ghana. In the face of the country’s risk from floods and landslides, this analysis identifies which energy and transport assets to prioritise in order to make the greatest contribution to safeguarding development progress. Three strategies (‘built’, ‘nature-based’, ‘combined SDG strategy’) were formulated through a multi-stakeholder partnership involving government, the private sector, and academia as a means to protect Ghana’s prioritised assets against climate risk. Evaluating these adaptation strategies in terms of their ability to deliver on SDG targets, we find that the combined SDG strategy maximises SDG co-benefits across 116 targets. The proposed methodological process for integrating SDG targets in adaptation assessments is transferable to other climate-vulnerable nations, and can provide decision-makers with spatially-explicit evidence for implementing sustainable adaptation in alignment with the global agendas. 相似文献
15.
Climate adaptation is uniquely linked to location, making it predominantly a local government and community responsibility. Despite the obligation to act, local governments are hindered by the absence of applicable guides to adaptation decision-making, especially adaptation to extreme events. In this paper, we describe a framework for prioritising adaptation options that could be locally implemented and illustrate it with a study of flooding in Kochi: a city in southern India. Unlike many demand driven, economics based studies, our new framework also incorporates non-economic dimensions of the extremes and potential adaptation options. Local knowledge is used to tackle data gaps and uncertainty related to extreme events: local experts select adaptation options that offer additional benefits besides those related to climate change. These co-benefits aid decision making under uncertainty by giving weight to community priorities. The Indian case study reveals that, risk evaluation and reduction need to be locally contextualised based on resources available, immediate community requirements, planning periods and local expert knowledge. Although there will be residual damage even after implementing selected options, we argue that, climate response will be most likely to be accepted when it also supports pressing needs. 相似文献
16.
Martin Wolf 《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):772-783
Is it possible for all of humanity to enjoy the standards of living of today's high-income countries? What would happen if these limits were reached, perhaps because of climate change or a shortage of natural resources essential to production? How would society manage – or fail to manage – such limits? Notwithstanding the current financial and economic crises, these are perhaps the biggest questions confronting our species (and of a host of other species, who are the victims of our decisions). The article begins by considering the biggest economic event of our lifetimes – the ‘great convergence’ and its implications for the demand for resources. The discussion then turns to a specific limit on our development, climate change, which is different from most other limits, because it involves a global public good: the atmosphere. What such limits might mean for our civilization is discussed. One can persuade people to tackle climate change only if those concerned with the dangers persuade ordinary people that action will not come at the expense of their prosperity. 相似文献
17.
Sevinc Ozkul 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):253-283
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) discloses that the global climate system is undoubtedly warming. Observations have shown that many natural systems, including hydrologic systems and water resources, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Eventually, these effects will have to be considered in water resources planning and management. Accordingly, need is indicated to evaluate the impact of expected climate change on hydrology and water resources at regional and local levels. The presented paper summarizes the results of the sub-project studies under the United Nations Development Program-Global Environment Facility (UNDP-GEF) Project. The studies cover the generation of climate change scenarios, modeling of basin hydrology, and testing the sensitivity of runoff to changes in precipitation and temperature. Simulation results of the water budget model have shown that nearly 20% of the surface waters in the studied basins will be reduced by the year of 2030. By the years 2050 and 2100, this percentage will increase up to 35% and more than 50%, respectively. The decreasing surface water potential of the basins will cause serious water stress problems among water users, mainly being agricultural, domestic and industrial water users. 相似文献
18.
Caroline C. Ummenhofer Rosanne D. D’Arrigo Kevin J. Anchukaitis Brendan M. Buckley Edward R. Cook 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(5-6):1319-1334
Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877–2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June–August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the MADA, provide a useful tool for assessing long-term changes in the characteristics of Asian monsoon droughts in the context of Indo-Pacific climate variability. 相似文献
19.
A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO2 trends of the largest CO2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO2 budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios.
POLICY RELEVANCE
Since the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy ‘solutions’ commensurate with 2°C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option’s feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement’s aim to address ‘equity’ is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO2 reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement’s policy goals unachievable. 相似文献
20.
气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望 总被引：32，自引：0，他引：32
综述了气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源、农业气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、高温热浪、低温灾害)和农业病虫害的变化趋势与规律,从农业生产潜力变化、作物种植制度变化和作物品质变化等方面阐明了气候变化对中国农业生产的影响事实,分析了气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响和中国农业生产适应气候变化的对策措施。在此基础上,针对气候变化背景下中国气候资源的时空分布特点及农业生产出现的新情况、新问题,指出了当前中国关于气候变化对农业影响研究存在的不足,提出了未来气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究需要重视的方面,为确保气候变化背景下中国的农业生产安全及粮食安全提供决策支持。 相似文献