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1.
Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ensemble prediction relies on a faithful representation of initial uncertainties in a forecasting system. Early research on initial perturbation methods tested random perturbations by adding 'white noise' to the analysis. Here, an alternative kind of random perturbations is introduced by using the difference between two randomly chosen atmospheric states (i.e. analyses). It yields perturbations (random field, RF, perturbations) in approximate flow balance.
The RF method is compared with the operational singular vector based ensemble at European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the ensemble transform (ET) method. All three methods have been implemented on the ECMWF IFS-model with resolution T L 255L40. The properties of the different perturbation methods have been investigated both by comparing the dynamical properties and the quality of the ensembles in terms of different skill scores. The results show that the RF perturbations initially have the same dynamical properties as the natural variability of the atmosphere. After a day of integration, the perturbations from all three methods converge. The skill scores indicate a statistically significant advantage for the RF method for the first 2–3 d for the most of the evaluated parameters. For the medium range (3–8 d), the differences are very small. 相似文献
The RF method is compared with the operational singular vector based ensemble at European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the ensemble transform (ET) method. All three methods have been implemented on the ECMWF IFS-model with resolution T
2.
We study the evolution of finite perturbations in the Lorenz '96 model, a meteorological toy model of the atmosphere. The initial perturbations are chosen to be aligned along different dynamic vectors: bred, Lyapunov, and singular vectors. Using a particular vector determines not only the amplification rate of the perturbation but also the spatial structure of the perturbation and its stability under the evolution of the flow. The evolution of perturbations is systematically studied by means of the so-called mean-variance of logarithms diagram that provides in a very compact way the basic information to analyse the spatial structure. We discuss the corresponding advantages of using those different vectors for preparing initial perturbations to be used in ensemble prediction systems, focusing on key properties: dynamic adaptation to the flow, robustness, equivalence between members of the ensemble, etc. Among all the vectors considered here, the so-called characteristic Lyapunov vectors are possibly optimal, in the sense that they are both perfectly adapted to the flow and extremely robust. 相似文献
3.
This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold (POT) method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology. 相似文献
4.
Some of the characteristics of intrusive finestructure observed in oceanic fronts suggest that salt fingering is active in the intrusions. An extension of Stern's 1967 study of the stability of a thermohaline front to intrusive finestructure driven by salt fingers is presented to investigate this hypothesis. Intrusions are found to grow due to the salt finger induced density fluxes even in the presence of small scale momentum dissipation. The presence of this dissipation defines a fastest growing mode for the disturbance which has physical characteristics not unlike those observed in oceanic fronts. The model results do not agree well with the laboratory studies of intrusions. For many fronts, the model requires initial perturbations in the front which can support salt fingers. Linear internal waves are investigated to determine if they can provide the initial perturbation. It is shown that, away from the equator, the interaction between internal waves and intrusions is weak because of a mismatch of time scales. Finally, growing intrusions are shown to flux heat, salt and density across fronts. The senses of these fluxes are to run down the lateral gradients of many oceanic fronts. 相似文献
5.
使用Zebiak-Cane模式和条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法,研究初始误差和参数误差共同作用对ENSO春季预报障碍现象的影响。选取模式中的8个El Ni?o事件,包括4次强事件和4次弱事件,每个El Ni?o事件又分别从8个不同的起始时间做1 a的预报,这样一共64个预报实验。对每个实验分别计算CNOP误差(初始误差和参数误差同时存在时的最优误差),通过分析误差增长,发现CNOP误差引起的1 a后的预报误差随着初始预报时间的不同有较大差异,并且不同强度的El Ni?o事件也会影响CNOP误差的发展,增长位相中强事件的预报误差要比弱事件的预报误差大一些;而衰减位相中恰恰相反,弱事件的预报误差要比强事件的预报误差要大一些;同时也发现高频El Ni?o事件对误差增长率的影响较大。本结论有助于提高Zebiak-Cane模式预报ENSO的技巧。 相似文献
6.
Qiao Fangli 《海洋学报(英文版)》1996,15(2):145-158
Ｔｈｅｍｉｘｉｎｇｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｉｎｔｈｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｏｆｏｃｅａｎｓｈｅａｒｗａｖｅｓ￥ＱｉａｏＦａｎｇｌｉ（ＦｉｒｓｔＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＯｃｅａｎｏｇｒａｐｈｙ，ＳｔａｔｅｏｃｅａｎｉｃＡｄｍｉｎｉｓｔｒａｔｉｏｎ，Ｑｉｎｇｄａｏ２... 相似文献
7.
We have obtained an analytical solution to the problem of determining the initial elevation at the tsunami source, which was formed by small residual deformations of a flat sloping bottom. This solution, which is newly derived, is compared with the known analytical solution of an equivalent problem over a horizontal bottom. It is shown that applying an analytical solution over a horizontal bottom for calculating the initial perturbations in the sources of realistic tsunami provides sufficient accuracy. 相似文献
8.
The instability of long-wave disturbances of a geostrophic current with linear velocity shear is studied with allowance for the diffusion of buoyancy. A detailed derivation of the model problem in dimensionless variables is presented, which is used for analyzing the dynamics of disturbances in a vertically bounded layer and for describing the formation of large-scale intrusions in the Arctic basin. The problem is solved numerically based on a high-precision method developed for solving fourth-order differential equations. It is established that there is an eigenvalue in the spectrum of eigenvalues that corresponds to unstable (growing with time) disturbances, which are characterized by a phase velocity exceeding the maximum velocity of the geostrophic flow. A discussion is presented to explain some features of the instability. 相似文献
9.
建立了基于风险的船体结构腐蚀优化检测规划的成本-效益分析模型。以费效比作为选择最优检测策略的标准,最优的检测策略是在保证结构设计工作寿命期内的可靠指标大于最低可靠指标的基础上,使得结构生命周期内总的费效比最大。在此基础上,以受点腐蚀损伤的船体构件为例,对其检测策略进行了成本-效益评估,并对计算结果进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,基于风险的成本及效益分析方法可以将检测规划的经济性和可靠性有效地结合起来,能够在风险与成本之间达到一种平衡,它在优化检测策略时是有效的。 相似文献
10.
The problem of the optimal control of aerosol emissions into the stratosphere to stabilize the Earth’s climate is considered based on the zero-dimensional energy balance model. The global surface-temperature deviation from the undisturbed value is the state variable, and the albedo of the artificial aerosol layer, whose time variations are functionally related to the change in the total mass of aerosol particles and, consequently, the rate of their emissions, is the control variable. The problem is solved with and without consideration for the system phase path and control variable constraints for the given performance measure (objective function). Unlike previous studies, the aerosol emission scenarios are not set a priori, but represent a rigorous solution of the optimal control problem, ensuring the minimization of the objective function. The method is illustrated using the RCP8.5 scenario of growing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The approach considered in this paper can be easily extended to the cases of applying other known methods of climate engineering to manipulate the climate. 相似文献
11.
In consideration of the resource wasted by unreasonable layout scheme of tidal current turbines, which would influence the ratio of cost and power output, particle swarm optimization algorithm is introduced and improved in the paper. In order to solve the problem of optimal array of tidal turbines, the discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO) algorithm has been performed by re-defining the updating strategies of particles’ velocity and position. This paper analyzes the optimization problem of micrositing of tidal current turbines by adjusting each turbine’s position, where the maximum value of total electric power is obtained at the maximum speed in the flood tide and ebb tide. Firstly, the best installed turbine number is generated by maximizing the output energy in the given tidal farm by the Farm/Flux and empirical method. Secondly, considering the wake effect, the reasonable distance between turbines, and the tidal velocities influencing factors in the tidal farm, Jensen wake model and elliptic distribution model are selected for the turbines’ total generating capacity calculation at the maximum speed in the flood tide and ebb tide. Finally, the total generating capacity, regarded as objective function, is calculated in the final simulation, thus the DPSO could guide the individuals to the feasible area and optimal position. The results have been concluded that the optimization algorithm, which increased 6.19% more recourse output than experience method, can be thought as a good tool for engineering design of tidal energy demonstration. 相似文献
12.
本文采用无海底地形但考虑海洋跃层和剪切背景流的二维非静力准不可压缩方程组的数值模式，开展失稳垂向剪切背景流下线性和非线性对称型海洋内波生成演变的数值实验，并对结果进行分析、比较和讨论。研究结果表明，线性内波强度随积分时间始终呈指数增长，并有内波的对称不稳定；而非线性内波强度则在发展期呈准线性增长，最终进入稳定期。线性增长比非线性增长要快得多，非线性效应具有维稳作用。对该线性和非线性对称型内波，在跃层附近位密度扰动均有大值中心，即其为跃层所俘获，这与实际观测相一致；流函数与位密度扰动两者均有很好配合，位密度扰动的正、负中心分别相应于流函数的上升、下沉运动，表明有从海底向上的斜对流发生，且以跃层为顶盖。对线性内波来说，随积分时间增加，其波形大体不变，其正、负振幅也大体相同，并有符号相反原地增长的两个倾斜环流圈，而在它们之间则有较强倾斜上升流。非线性内波波形随积分时间改变，倾斜环流圈数目也在增加，最终形成负环流强于正环流的结果，并导致流函数、位密度扰动水平梯度剧增，其可视为间断。 相似文献
13.
Large portions of the spectra of singular values are determined for both moist and dry versions of a tangent linear, regional model for 4 different synoptic cases. Norms considered include the usual energy norm and versions of a norm measuring only the energy in some set of rotational mode perturbations. At most, only a few percent of the singular vectors possible with any of the norms are growing ones. Inclusion of moist physics in the tangent linear model greatly affects the leading singular vectors but does not increase the number of growing singular vectors much. Most singular vectors are damping ones, and therefore random perturbations drawn from a white‐noise distribution will likely damp during the 24‐h forecast periods considered. Only a few singular vectors are required to explain a significant portion of the final‐time variance of such perturbations, however, because the leading singular values are so large compared with the rest. The truncated rotational mode norm is shown to be very useful for investigating these properties. 相似文献
14.
By the method of multiple scales, we obtain (to within the third order of smallness) the asymptotic expansions for the components
of the velocity of motion of liquid under a floating ice cover in the process of propagation of periodic surface flexural
gravity waves of finite amplitude under the conditions of ice compression. We study the dependences of the distributions of
the velocity components along the wave profile on the compressive forces and the parameters of the initial harmonic. It is
shown that the amplitude values of the velocity components decrease and the phase shift of oscillations increases as the compressiveforces
increase. 相似文献
15.
The energy characteristics in the evolution of the wave train are investigated to understand the inherent cause of the freak wave generation. The Morlet wavelet spectrum method is employed to analyze the numerical, laboratory and field evolution data of this generation process. Their energy distributions and variations are discussed with consideration of corresponding surface elevations. Through comparing the energy characteristics of three cases, it is shown that the freak wave generation depends not only on the continuous transfer of wave train energy to a certain region where finally the maximum energy occurs, but also on the distinct shift of the converged energy to high-frequency components in a very short time. And the typical energy characteristics of freak waves are also given. 相似文献
16.
深层叶绿素最大值(Deep Chlorophyll Maximum,DCM)现象的数值模拟是研究海洋表层生态系统和全球碳循环的重要组成部分之一。但是由于自身的复杂性和观测的局限性,数值模式中物理参数的不确定性给模拟结果带来了一定程度的误差。其中,垂向湍流扩散系数(vertical turbulence diffusion)是模式所包含的物理参数中很难直接通过观测来确定的参数,它在模式中的来源和取值往往具有很大的不确定性。本文通过条件非线性最优(参数)扰动(Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter,CNOP-P)方法,研究了垂向湍流扩散系数的不确定性对模式模拟结果的影响。我们发现,垂向湍流扩散系数对DCM模拟产生最大影响的CNOP型扰动位于生产力层的上半部分。并且,去掉生产力层内湍流扩散系数的误差,模式模拟的改进程度最高达到了80%。可见,垂向湍流扩散对生态系统的发展和保持起着极其重要的作用,改进垂向湍流扩散系数的不确定性,对DCM的数值模拟有着重要意义。 相似文献
17.
使用球坐标下1.5 层约化重力浅水模式模拟海洋风生双环流, 结果显示双环流射流存在拉伸模态和收缩模态间的年际变化。以双环流从拉伸模态向收缩模态的转变过程为背景场, 利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法, 考察初始误差对双环流变异可预报性的影响, 得到两类初始误差: 全局CNOP型和局部CNOP(LCNOP)型, 两类初始误差对双环流变异的影响几乎相反。通过考察误差发展, 发现在射流从拉伸模态向收缩模态转变过程中, CNOP 型初始误差使射流弯曲程度变大, 并在预报时刻导致涡脱落; 而LCNOP 型初始误差则使射流弯曲程度变小。相比LCNOP, CNOP 型初始误差引起更大预报误差, 导致双环流变异的预报技巧下降更多。两类误差得到较大发展的区域可能存在正压不稳定, 使误差能够不断从背景场吸收能量进而得到快速发展。给出了两类使双环流变异预报技巧下降最大的初始误差, 在实际的数值预报中减少这两种类型的误差, 将有助于提高双环流变异的预报技巧。 相似文献
18.
《Oceanologica Acta》1999,22(2):179-191
The grain size of mature coastal sands changes rapidly in response to the variation of the energy regime which provokes either erosion or deposition of fractions of the textural assemblage. Whatever the dynamic conditions, questions of paramount importance such as the size of grain populations transported simultaneously, the most common size of the grains in movement and the grain-size range of the sediment fraction involved are still poorly understood. The present paper deals with an attempt to describe this fraction without any consideration of the processes responsible for the observed changes. A major problem results from the fact that the distribution of the mobilized fraction cannot be known and described by direct comparison between the initial and the final grain-size curves. The only way to characterize the mobile fraction between two subsequent grain-size states is to simulate various kinds of removal or deposition. The first question is to express the shape of the actual distributions of the sediments mathematically. The simple Gaussian approximation being irrelevant, distributions can be expressed using advanced computer programmes which can provide mathematical expressions for all distributions. The cubic-spline approximation was chosen. The mobile fraction was assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. Various tests were made in order to simulate qualitative phenomena observed in nature (bimodality, grain-size parameter changes…) and to assess the three parameters which define the characteristics of the fraction deposited or removed: modal value, dispersion of the mobile population and relative amplitude of the change. An application was carried out on the Senegalese coast offshore from the Senegal delta and on the Mediteranean coast in the Gulf of Lions. It suggests that the dynamic agents have a great selectivity. Further developments are considered. 相似文献
19.
K. B. Moiseenko 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(2):158-167
Within the framework of a two-dimensional, inviscid, stationary model, the problem of an unbounded (in height) two-layer quasi-static airflow over mesoscale mountains is considered. The airflow is characterized by a constant velocity and a discontinuity of temperature stratification at the inner interface (tropopause). The conjugation conditions for the flow fields at the boundary between the layers are formulated exactly, without the standard assumption of small perturbations. According to calculations, partial reflection of wave energy from the tropopause is substantially controlled by nonlinear effects associated with a finite height and shape of terrain. The tropopause’s displacement from the initial (equilibrium) level has a stabilizing effect on the flow, thus interfering with the development of anomalously strong disturbances. As a result, the flow field remains statically stable within a considerably wider range of flow parameters and for a larger mountain heights than predicted in the context of the conventional linear theory. The results obtained in this study are indicative of the importance of a correct consideration of the dynamic interaction between the troposphere and the overlying layers during both simulation of the process of flow and analysis of real atmospheric situations over mountains. 相似文献
20.
K. A. Gorshkov I. A. Soustova D. A. Sergeev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(6):785-793
On the basis of the perturbation theory developed previously by the authors for localized hydrodynamic vortices, the influence of a specified jet flow and of the structure of individual vortices on the stability of the Karman street is investigated. It is shown that, for a street of vortices with a power law of decrease in the azimuthal velocity, the jet flow suppresses instability only with respect to perturbations with wavelengths from a certain range determined by the parameters of the flow. At the same time, for streets formed from vortices with a Gaussian profile of the azimuthal velocity, even in the absence of a specified flow, there is a certain region of the street’s parameters in which the street is stable against perturbations of all scales. Thus, for the purposes of modeling quasi-two-dimensional flows in a stratified fluid by a sequence of localized vortices, which is discussed in this study, vortices with a Gaussian profile of the azimuthal velocity turn out to be preferable. The results of this study are consistent with numerous experiments on the structure of a quasi-two-dimensional wake behind a body in a stratified fluid at large Reynolds and Froude numbers. 相似文献