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1.
洞庭湖水面面积与城陵矶水位之间的绳套关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
洞庭湖是我国第二大淡水湖,与长江连通,在防洪抗旱和湿地生态保护等方面具有重要的现实意义.采用Terra/MODIS L1B遥感数据,提取了2000-2012年洞庭湖水面面积,结合同期城陵矶水位观测数据,建立了城陵矶水位与洞庭湖水面面积的绳套关系曲线.分析结果表明:2000-2012年间,洞庭湖水面面积呈现总体减少的趋势;在季节上表现为规律性的涨落,具有明显的涨(4-6月)-丰(7-9月)-退(10-12月)-枯(1-3月)的水文特征;在空间格局上表现为由湖体中心向外扩张,随后由外向湖体中心逐渐收缩的变化过程;洞庭湖水面面积与城陵矶水位之间具有较高的相关性,但不同时期的相关系数存在一定的差异:枯水期二者相关性较低,丰水期相关性最高,涨水期和退水期相关性较高;这种差异与各个时期的主导因素不同有关,长江来水对枯水期、丰水期的绳套关系影响较大,其中东洞庭湖最为明显;不论丰水年(2002年)或干旱年(2011年),洞庭湖水面面积变化与城陵矶水位之间的相关性均较高.研究结果对于深入认识江湖关系的宏观复杂性、长江中下游地区以及洞庭湖水域洪涝灾害的预防和治理都具有积极的意义.  相似文献   

2.
Samples of sediment collected from the Severn floodplain between Worcester and Gloucester following the severe flooding in January and February 1990, were analysed for their grain size distribution. The results show that most sand was deposited within 20 m of the channel bank, but that fine sand may contribute to flood sediment across the width of the floodplain. James' (1985) numerical model of overbank sedimentation attempts to predict the transfer of sediment to the floodplain during flooding. Geometrical and hydraulic data relating to the Severn flood are used as input for a computer program of James' (1985) model. The pattern of sediment concentrations predicted by the model was compared with that obtained from statistical analysis of the flood sediment. The patterns were found to be similar, so James' (1985) model was considered to predict in a relative sense the distribution of flood sediment.  相似文献   

3.
Floods have caused devastating impacts to the environment and society in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Since flooding events are frequent, this marks the need to develop tools for flood early warning. In this study, we propose a satellite based flood index to identify the runoff source areas that largely contribute to extreme runoff production and floods in the basin. Satellite based products used for development of the flood index are CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique: 0.25° by 0.25°, daily) product for calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for calculation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Other satellite products used in this study are for rainfall-runoff modelling to represent rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover and topography. Results of the study show that assessment of spatial and temporal rainfall variability by satellite products may well serve in flood early warning. Preliminary findings on effectiveness of the flood index developed in this study indicate that the index is well suited for flood early warning. The index combines SPI and TWI, and preliminary results illustrate the spatial distribution of likely runoff source areas that cause floods in flood prone areas.  相似文献   

4.
The Mekong floodplains, which encompasses the region from Kratie Township in Central Cambodia to the Vietnamese East Sea, is a region of globally renown agricultural productivity and biodiversity. The construction of 135 dams across the Mekong basin and the development of delta‐based flood prevention systems have caused public concern given possible threats on the stability of agricultural and ecological systems in the floodplains. Mekong dams store water upstream and regulate flow seasonality, while in situ flood prevention systems re‐distribute water retention capacity in the floodplains. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate possible impacts of the recent development of both hydropower dams and flood prevention systems on hydrological regimes in the Mekong floodplains. An analysis of measured daily and hourly water level data for key stations in the Mekong floodplains from Kratie to the river mouth in Vietnam was conducted. Hydropower dam information was obtained from the hydropower database managed by the Mekong River Commission, and the MODIS satellite imagery was used to detect changes in flooding extent related to the operation of flood prevention systems in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Results indicate that the upper part of the floodplains, the Cambodian floodplains, may buffer upstream dam impacts to the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Flood prevention up to date has had the greatest effect on the natural hydrological regime of the Mekong floodplains, evidenced by a significant increase of water level rise and fall rates in the upper delta and causing water levels in the middle delta to increase. The development of flood prevention systems has also effected spatial distribution of flooding as indicated via a time series analysis of satellite imagery. While this development leads to increase localized agricultural productivity, our historical data analysis indicates that development of one region detrimentally affects other regions within the delta, which could increase the risk of future conflicts among regions, economic sectors and the ecological value of these important floodplains. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
This paper describes the use of numerical weather and climate models for predicting severe rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from several days to several months in advance. Such predictions are extremely valuable, allowing time for proactive flood protection measures to be taken. Specifically, the dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II), developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP), is applied to YRB rainfall prediction and flood planning. IAP DCP-II employs ensemble prediction with dynamically conditioned perturbations to reduce the uncertainty associated with seasonal climate prediction. IAP DCP-II was shown to successfully predict seasonal YRB summer flooding events based on a 15-year (1980–1994) hindcast experiment and the real-time prediction of two summer flooding events (1999 and 2001). Finally, challenges and opportunities for applying seasonal dynamical forecasting to flood management problems in the YRB are discussed.  相似文献   

6.
基于长江中下游一、二维耦合水动力学模型,以1954和1998年洪水为典型,模拟了三峡水库调蓄前后洞庭湖区的洪水过程,定量分析了三峡水库对洞庭湖区防洪的贡献.结果表明:在长江发生1954和1998年全流域大洪水期间,三峡水库实施兼顾对城陵矶河段的防洪补偿调度,可有效缓解荆南三口河系及湖区的防洪压力,减少荆南三口 1.58...  相似文献   

7.
Flooding hazard evaluation is the basis of flooding risk assessment which has significances to natural environment, human life and social economy. This study develops a spatial framework integrating naïve Bayes (NB) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess flooding hazard at regional scale. The methodology was demonstrated in the Bowen Basin in Australia as a case study. The inputs into the framework are five indices: elevation, slope, soil water retention, drainage proximity and density. They were derived from spatial data processed in ArcGIS. NB as a simplified and efficient type of Bayesian methods was used, with the assistance of remotely sensed flood inundation extent in the sampling process, to infer flooding probability on a cell-by-cell basis over the study area. A likelihood-based flooding hazard map was output from the GIS-based framework. The results reveal elevation and slope have more significant impacts on evaluation than other input indices. Area of high likelihood of flooding hazard is mainly located in the west and the southwest where there is a high water channel density, and along the water channels in the east of the study area. High likelihood of flooding hazard covers 45 % of the total area, medium likelihood accounts for about 12 %, low and very low likelihood represents 19 and 24 %, respectively. The results provide baseline information to identify and assess flooding hazard when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in the study offer an integrated approach in evaluation of flooding hazard with spatial distributions and indicative uncertainties. It can also be applied to other hazard assessments.  相似文献   

8.
A dike system of moderate size has a large number of potential system states, and the loading imposed on the system is inherently random. If the system should fail, in one of its many potential failure modes, the topography of UK floodplains is usually such that hydrodynamic modelling of flood inundation is required to generate realistic estimates of flood depth and hence damage. To do so for all possible failure states may require 1,000s of computationally expensive inundation simulations. A risk-based sampling technique is proposed in order to reduce the computational resources required to estimate flood risk. The approach is novel in that the loading and dike system states (obtained using a simplified reliability analysis) are sampled according to the contribution that a given region of the space of basic variables makes to risk. The methodology is demonstrated in a strategic flood risk assessment for the city of Burton-upon-Trent in the UK. 5,000 inundation model simulations were run although it was shown that the flood risk estimate converged adequately after approximately half this number. The case study demonstrates that, amongst other factors, risk is a complex function of loadings, dike resistance, floodplain topography and the spatial distribution of floodplain assets. The application of this approach allows flood risk managers to obtain an improved understanding of the flooding system, its vulnerabilities and the most efficient means of allocating resource to improve performance. It may also be used to test how the system may respond to future external perturbations.  相似文献   

9.
悬浮泥沙浓度是描述水质的重要参数之一,获得其在空间和时间上的分布信息对于理解、管理和保护湖泊生态系统是必要的.此研究旨在建立基于中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)影像的鄱阳湖悬浮泥沙浓度反演模型,并利用建立的模型反演2000-2007年鄱阳湖丰水期的悬浮泥沙浓度,分析其在时间和空间上的变化特征并对引起这些变化的原因进行讨论.研究结果揭示:MODIS Terra影像红波段与悬浮泥沙浓度具有显著的相关性(R2=0.92,s.e.=12.02mg/L,F=154.30,P<0.001),可以用于鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度的反演;自2000-2007年间,鄱阳湖悬浮泥沙浓度呈明显的时间和空间分布特征,在南部水体悬浮泥沙浓度无明显变化,在北部呈增加趋势,而中部水体泥沙浓度波动较大;鄱阳湖北部的采砂活动是导致此区域悬浮泥沙浓度增加的主要原因,其与长江江水倒灌鄱阳湖共同作用引起鄱阳湖中部泥沙浓度的波动,抚河、信江和饶河输沙量的非显著变化也导致南部鄱阳湖水体悬浮泥沙浓度的非显著变化.  相似文献   

10.
Severe floods can have disastrous impacts and cause wide ranging destruction in the Mekong River basin. At the same time groundwater resources are significantly influenced and extensively recharged by flood water in inundation areas of the basin. This study determines the variation of groundwater resources caused by flooding over inundated areas located in lower part of the Mekong River basin using numerical modeling and field observations. The inundation calculations have been evaluated using satellite image outputs. Comparing large, medium and small flood events, we conclude that flood control which reduces the area of inundation, results in a reduction of groundwater resources in the area. In 1993, a 19% reduction in inundation areas resulted in a 31% reduction in groundwater storage. In 1998, a 44% reduction in inundation areas led to a 42% reduction in groundwater storage. Thus, while flood control activities are vital to reduce negative flood impacts in the Mekong River basin, they also negatively impact groundwater resources in the area.  相似文献   

11.
The aim of this study is to promote appropriate land development policies and to improve operations of flood risk in urban areas. This study first illustrated a multi-parameter flood hazard index (FHI) model for assessing potential flood risk areas in the Guanzhong Urban Area (GUA), a large-scale urban area in northwestern China. The FHI model consisted of the following seven parameters: rainfall intensity, flow accumulation, distance from the river network, elevation, land use, surface slope, and geology. The parameter weights were assigned using an analytical hierarchy process and the sum weight of the first three parameters accounted for 71.21% of the total weight and had significant influence on flooding. By combining with population factor, the FHI model was modified to estimate the flood control area in the GUA. The spatial distribution of the flood risk was obviously different in the flood hazard area and flood control area. The very low risk and medium risk area in the flood control area increased by 11.19% and reduced by 9.03% compared to flood hazard area, but there were no obvious differences in other levels of risk areas. The flood control assessment indicated that very high flood risk areas were principally concentrated along river banks (the Weihe River and its tributaries) and in the middle of the Guanzhong Plain. Land use and population distribution are related to flooding. Especially, forestland was located in 84.48% of the very low risk area, while low risk areas were mainly located in 91.49% of high population dispersion area.  相似文献   

12.
During explosive eruptions the deposition of fine-grained volcanic ash fallout reduces soil permeability, favouring runoff of meteoric water and thus increasing the occurrence of catastrophic floods. A fully dynamic, two-dimensional model was used to simulate flooding scenarios in the Vesuvian area following an explosive volcanic eruption. The highest risk occurs in the catchment area of the Acerra-Nola Plain N and NE of Vesuvius. This plain has a population of 70,000 living in low-lying areas. This catchment area is vulnerable to ash fall because it lies downwind of the dominant synoptic circulation and it lacks a natural outflow toward the sea. Our numerical simulations predict dangerous scenarios, even in quiescent periods, during extreme rain events (return periods of 200 years have been considered), and a significant increase in the extent of the flooded areas due to renewed volcanic activity. Based on these simulations a hazard zonation has been proposed. Editorial responsibility: A Woods  相似文献   

13.
Recent years have been marked by a continuous availability of spatial SAR data since the launch of the European remote sensing satellite (ERS-1) in 1991. Consequently, remote sensing techniques now offer an opportunity to map flood inundation fields caused by river overflow or waterlogging in environments characterized by frequent cloud cover. Indeed, inundation fields can clearly be seen on ERS-1 SAR images taken during flooding periods. However, such an identification can be constrained by the similarity in behaviour between water surfaces and other features of the landscape such as extended asphalt areas, permanent water bodies and less illuminated slopes. For consistent flood inundation extent mapping a more robust approach is required. This is provided by a conceptual flood inundation index that is physically sound in relation to radar imaging. Moreover, this index has proved to be useful for highlighting soils located within inundation fields and having significantly different internal drainage. The results achieved in the framework of the research must be seen in the context of intensive use of remote sensing data to support decision methods for sustainable management of land and water resources. Such decision support methods could be provided by river hydraulic models aimed at assessing environmental effects of inundation floods and at early flood warning systems. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The Pantanal wetland is one of the least explored regions of South America. It is characterized by an outstanding flora and fauna adapted to a seasonal flood pulse controlled by a dry and a wet season within each year. The resulting inundation covers in average an area of approximately 150 000 km2 and is seen as the most important driver for ecological integrity. Evaporation from the large floodplain is supposed to influence the climate of the whole continent. The regional groundwater is connected to the surface water and plays an important role for the characteristic flooding regime by regulating the wetland's water table. The water balance assessment of the wetland and the internal water exchange between surface and groundwater is therefore of high relevance for the conservation of the Pantanal biodiversity. Despite of its importance, water balance studies including groundwater–surface water interactions based on field data are rarely undertaken. This is mainly due to the remoteness and difficulty in accessing this area, which results in lack of data. In our study, we developed a new tracer‐based model to simulate the spatio–temporal surface and subsurface fluxes for a range of water bodies. The model was able to simulate these fluxes considering a dynamic simulation of inflow and outflow using a newly collected 2‐year dataset of water levels, stable water isotopes and chloride collected from several water bodies in the northern Pantanal region. Quantitative differences between water bodies according to their location in the floodplain were determined by the flooding regime and connectivity as well as site‐specific characteristics, such as hydraulic conductivity and water depth. Our model simulated water balance fluxes with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.61, whereas it simulated stable water isotopic compositions better than chloride. We present the first study based on field data for the Pantanal, which is able to quantify water balances fluxes. Because their representation in global climate and land cover products is insufficient, our simulation results are valuable for validating large‐scale models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
我国东南沿海中小流域洪水模拟研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
我国东南沿海多为独流入海的中小流域,河流短小,流域调节能力弱.该区洪水历时较短,但危害较大,加之近年来区内经济的迅速发展,洪水造成损失日趋加剧,因此开展此区洪水特性和防洪减灾研究意义重大.本文以中国东南沿海曹娥江流域为典型,根据中小流域洪水的特点,在初步分析流域降雨径流的成因和洪水演进规律的基础上,开展了流域洪水模拟研究, 选择建立了流域降雨径流模型以及洪水演进模型,重点探讨了利用遥感信息和GIS相结合确定水文模型参数的方法和途径,经实验流域资料检验分析,其模拟结果计算精度满足要求.该研究将有助于该区流域降雨径流特性及洪水演变规律的深入研究,同时为东南沿海中小流域洪水模拟预测和防洪减灾研究提供了经验和模式.  相似文献   

16.
采用高时间分辨率遥感信息的谐波分析方法,提取反映鄱阳湖湿地植被指数随水位变化的谐波分量,分别以自然年和水文年的不同周期作为湿地植被指数谐波分析单元,利用时间序列信号的最大振幅谐波分量的变化周期表征湿地植被指数在不同分析单元的变化模式,结合常年水位观测数据和湿地植被群落在不同物候期的时间与空间特征,探讨鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区和南矶湿地国家级自然保护区的植被分布面积与水位变化关系.结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖湿地植被分布受水文状况影响的特征明显,相对于南矶自然保护区,鄱阳湖自然保护区湿地植被分布面积对观测水位的变化更为敏感.(2)两个自然保护区范围内的湿地植被分布面积与对应水文年9和10月的观测水位呈现较强的负相关关系,且在0.05水平上显著.一年两季生长的湿地植被分布面积受退水时间影响大于次年的涨水时间,与枯水期的观测水位无明显的相关关系.(3)两个自然保护区在不同高程区间的湿地植被分布面积与观测水位的相关关系和显著性呈现各自特征.在鄱阳湖保护区,12~13 m高程区间的湿地植被分布面积与9月观测水位的相关性最强,且相关关系在0.05水平上显著;13~14 m高程区间的湿地植被分布面积与10月观测水位相关关系更强.在南矶自然保护区,湿地植被分布面积在不同高程区间均与9和10月观测水位显著相关.采用谐波分析方法分析湖泊湿地的植被分布面积与水位关系有助于基于多时间序列遥感信息的湿地水文节律研究.  相似文献   

17.
The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two‐dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
周静  万荣荣  吴兴华  张宇 《湖泊科学》2020,32(6):1723-1735
基于长序列遥感影像数据、水位日观测数据以及高精度湖盆地形数据,通过提取洞庭湖1987—2016年湿地植被信息,并构建表征水位波动的多周期水情变量,采用逐步回归分析法识别影响洞庭湖湿地植被分布格局的关键水情变量并建立其与植被面积的响应关系.结果表明：1）1987—2016年,洞庭湖湿地典型植被面积在全湖尺度上呈增加趋势,尤其是林地面积,占比由1.77%上升为7.24%.湿地植被格局演变上,东洞庭湖呈现芦苇群落挤占苔草群落空间,并推动湿地植被整体向湖心扩张的趋势.2）影响东洞庭湖苔草和芦苇分布最关键的水情变量是丰水期水位.苔草对丰水期水情存在非线性阈值响应,丰水期平均水位维持在29 m左右,最适宜苔草生长;对于芦苇,丰水期偏枯的水情条件对其生长发育起到促进作用.涨水期和退水期水文过程是影响东洞庭湖湿地植被分布的次为重要的水情因子.涨水期、退水期水位偏低的水情条件对芦苇分布面积的扩张起促进作用.  相似文献   

20.
K. A. Upton  C. R. Jackson 《水文研究》2011,25(12):1949-1963
This article presents the development of a relatively low cost and rapidly applicable methodology to simulate the spatio‐temporal occurrence of groundwater flooding in chalk catchments. In winter 2000/2001 extreme rainfall resulted in anomalously high groundwater levels and groundwater flooding in many chalk catchments of northern Europe and the southern United Kingdom. Groundwater flooding was extensive and prolonged, occurring in areas where it had not been recently observed and, in places, lasting for 6 months. In many of these catchments, the prediction of groundwater flooding is hindered by the lack of an appropriate tool, such as a distributed groundwater model, or the inability of models to simulate extremes adequately. A set of groundwater hydrographs is simulated using a simple lumped parameter groundwater model. The number of models required is minimized through the classification and grouping of groundwater level time‐series using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. One representative hydrograph is modelled then transposed to other observed hydrographs in the same group by the process of quantile mapping. Time‐variant groundwater level surfaces, generated using the discrete set of modelled hydrographs and river elevation data, are overlain on a digital terrain model to predict the spatial extent of groundwater flooding. The methodology is applied to the Pang and Lambourn catchments in southern England for which monthly groundwater level time‐series exist for 52 observation boreholes covering the period 1975–2004. The results are validated against observed groundwater flood extent data obtained from aerial surveys and field mapping. The method is shown to simulate the spatial and temporal occurrence of flooding during the 2000/2001 flood event accurately. British Geological Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Processes © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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