共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
A stochastic prediction model for the sunspot cycle is proposed. The prediction model is based on a modified binary mixture
of Laplace distribution functions and a moving-average model over the estimated model parameters. A six-parameter modified
binary mixture of Laplace distribution functions is used for the modeling of the shape of a generic sunspot cycle. The model
parameters are estimated for 23 sunspot cycles independently, and the primary prediction-model parameters are derived from
these estimated model parameters using a moving-average stochastic model. A correction factor (hump factor) is introduced
to make an initial prediction. The hump factor is computed for a given sunspot cycle as the ratio of the model estimated after
the completion of a sunspot cycle (post-facto model) and the prediction of the moving-average model. The hump factors can be applied one at a time over the moving-average
prediction model to get a final prediction of a sunspot cycle. The present model is used to predict the characteristics of
Sunspot Cycle 24. The methodology is validated using the previous Sunspot Cycles 21, 22, and 23, which shows the adequacy
and the applicability of the prediction model. The statistics of the variations of sunspot numbers at high solar activity
are used to provide the lower and upper bound for the predictions using the present model. 相似文献
2.
《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2021,(7)
The polarization characteristics of an astronomical telescope is an important factor that affects polarimetry accuracy. Polarization modeling is an essential means to achieve high precision and efficient polarization measurement of the telescope, especially for the alt-azimuth mount telescope. At present, the polarization model for the telescope(i.e., the physical parametric model) is mainly constructed using the polarization parameters of each optical element. In this paper, an artificial neural network(ANN) is used to model the polarization characteristics of the telescope. The ANN model between the physical parametric model residual and the pointing direction of the telescope is obtained, which reduces the model deviation caused by the incompleteness of the physical parametric model. Compared with the physical parametric model, the model fitting and predictive accuracy of the New Vacuum Solar Telescope(NVST) is improved after adopting the ANN model. After using the ANN model, the polarization cross-talk from I to Q, U, and V can be reduced from 0.011 to 0.007, and the crosstalk among Q, U, and V can be reduced from 0.047 to 0.020, which effectively improves the polarization measurement accuracy of the telescope. 相似文献
3.
We have investigated two stiff-fluid models in which the material distribution is that of viscous fluid. In the first model, the coefficient of shear viscosity is assumed to be constant while in the second model the coefficient of shear viscosity is proportional to the rate of expansion in the model. The paper also discusses some physical and geometrical aspects of the model. The behaviour of the model in absence of viscosity is also discussed. 相似文献
4.
A numerical model is presented to simulate the influence function of deformable mirror actuators. The numerical model is formed by Bessel Fourier orthogonal functions, which are constituted of Bessel orthogonal functions and a Fourier basis. A detailed comparison is presented between the new Bessel Fourier model, the Zernike model, the Gaussian influence function and the modified Gaussian influence function. Numerical experiments indicate that the new numerical model is easy to use and more accurate compared with other numerical models. The new numerical model can be used for describing deformable mirror performances and numerical simulations of adaptive optics systems. 相似文献
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6.
利用12万组大气阻力资料，对DTM－1994模式进行改造，获得了一个新的大气模式，该模式的特点是：1．利用2阶周日峰效应，代替了原来模式中的复杂的周日效应表达式，减少了模式参数（少于50个），并使模式参数均具有明确的物理意义，2．分清了模式的主要参数和次要参数，在主要参数中，又分清了利用了阻力资料可以改进的参数和可能改不好的参数．3．与MSIS－1990和DTM－1994模式相比，其互差可以被接受，说明使用卫星阻力资料可以进行大气模式动态改正，不仅能测定大气总密度，并且能测定大气的分密度，4．与卫星轨道相比较，改进有显优于MSIS－1990模式，在120km轨道附近，改进模式密度比MSIS－1990模式大10％，同时我们在卫星陨落期预报中发现，MSIS－1990模式密度比实际大气密度小9％，这说明改进模式的密度与实际大气的密度基本接近。 相似文献
7.
This paper investigates a simplified model for describing the gravitational fields of nonaxisymmetric elongated asteroids. The connection between the simplified model and the target asteroid is built by considering the positions of equilibrium points. To improve the performance of position matching for the equilibrium points associated with these non-axisymmetric asteroids, a nonaxisymmetric triple-particle-linkage model is proposed based on two existing axisymmetric particlelinkage models. The unknown parameters of the simplified model are determined by minimizing the matching error using the nonlinear optimization method. The proposed simplified model is applied for three realistic elongated asteroids, 243 Ida, 433 Eros and(8567) 1996 HW1. The simulation results verify that the current particle-linkage model has better matching accuracy than the two existing particle-linkage models. The comparison, between the simplified model and the polyhedral model, on the topological cases of the equilibrium points and the distribution of gravitational potential further validate the rationality and accuracy of the simplified model. 相似文献
8.
In this paper interacting chameleon-tachyon model with agegraphic dark energy is revisited. The model in two cases of matter and radiation dominated universe is best fitted with the observational data for distance modulus. Stability of the model is investigated. The model then tested against observational data for Hubble parameter. With respect to the best fitted model parameters, our results show that while both scenarios are in good match with the observational data in low redshifts, the model in radiation dominated case better fits the data in high redshifts. 相似文献
9.
A new calibration model for pointing a radio telescope that considers nonlinear errors in the azimuth axis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A new calibration model of a radio telescope that includes pointing error is presented, which considers nonlinear errors in the azimuth axis. For a large radio telescope, in particular for a telescope with a turntable, it is difficult to correct pointing errors using a traditional linear calibration model, because errors produced by the wheel-on-rail or center bearing structures are generally nonlinear. Fourier expansion is made for the oblique error and parameters describing the inclination direction along the azimuth axis based on the linear calibration model, and a new calibration model for pointing is derived. The new pointing model is applied to the 40 m radio telescope administered by Yunnan Observatories, which is a telescope that uses a turntable. The results show that this model can significantly reduce the residual systematic errors due to nonlinearity in the azimuth axis compared with the linear model. 相似文献
10.
D.R. McDiarmid 《Planetary and Space Science》1980,28(7):727-737
The model of morning sector Pc5 pulsation activity developed in the companion paper is extended to account for both north and south ionospheres. The result is consistent with recent work by Allan and Knox (1979a and b). Using the spatial oscillation model proposed by McDiarmid (1979), the polarization properties of the model are determined. It is shown that when the phase of the ground induced response is taken into account, the model predicts the results observed by Lam and Rostoker (1979). Allan and Knox (1979) have also discussed the case where the wave admittance at the ionosphere equals the height integrated Pedersen conductivity (matching) and concluded that no standing wave solution exists. Here it is shown that for pulsation systems whose essential physics is described by the proposed model, the matching condition is more complicated and is, in fact, unlikely to be satisfied. Finally, it is concluded that the results obtained with our model are sufficient to warrant the development of an equivalent hydromagnetic wave model. 相似文献
11.
Mukhanov and Vikman have studied inflation model with the non-linear (NL) scalar field. We discuss the dark energy model with
the Lagrangian in the presence of the square potential. We analyse the sufficient condition for the existence of an attractor
solution, and compare the equation of state parameter, the present age of universe and the transition redshift with the quintessence
model. We also use the Gold dataset of 157 SN-Ia to finally constrain the parameter of the models. We find that the considered
model is consistent with the observation and a little inferior to the quintessence model. The above Lagrangian is similar
to the non-linear Born–Infeld (NLBI) scalar field model, while which is superior to the quintessence model. 相似文献
12.
An analytic magnetic field model for the Earth's magnetosphere is constructed from a dipole field and a tail field. This model can be taken as a generalization of the Dungey's model, after one adds to it a horizontal component. The magnetic topology in the noon-midnight meridian plane of this model is fully determined and it is compared with the topology of other models. In this study it is found that, for a specific value of the parameterk, which is associated to any form of the model, the noon's side neutral points obey a bifurcation scheme. 相似文献
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14.
It is an objective fact that there exists error in the satellite dynamic model and it will be transferred to satellite orbit determination algorithm, forming a part of the connotative model error. Mixed with the systematic error and random error of the measurements, they form the unitive model error and badly restrict the precision of the orbit determination. We deduce in detail the equations of orbit improvement for a system with dynamic model error, construct the parametric model for the explicit part of the model and nonparametric model for the error that can not be explicitly described. We also construct the partially linear orbit determination model, estimate and fit the model error using a two-stage estimation and a kernel function estimation, and finally make the corresponding compensation in the orbit determination. Beginning from the data depth theory, a data depth weight kernel estimator for model error is proposed for the sake of promoting the steadiness of model error estimation. Simulation experiments of SBSS are performed. The results show clearly that the model error is one of the most important effects that will influence the precision of the orbit determination. The kernel function method can effectively estimate the model error, with the window width as a major restrict parameter. A data depth-weight-kernel estimation, however, can improve largely the robustness of the kernel function and therefore improve the precision of orbit determination. 相似文献
15.
H. C. Spruit 《Solar physics》1974,34(2):277-290
A model of the convection zone is presented which matches an empirical model atmosphere (HSRA) and an interior model. A mixing length formalism containing four adjustable parameters is used. Thermodynamical considerations provide limits on two of these parameters. The average temperature-pressure relation depends on two or three combinations of the four parameters. Observational information on the structure of the outermost layers of the convection zone, and the value of the solar radius limit the range of possible parameter combinations. It is shown that in spite of the remaining freedom of choice of the parameters, the mean temperature-pressure relation is fixed well by these data.The reality of a small density inversion in the HSRA model is investigated. The discrepancy between the present model and a solar model by Mullan (1971) is discussed briefly. 相似文献
16.
Anantha Chanumolu Sivarani Thirupathi Damien Jones Sunetra Giridhar Deon Grobler Robert Jakobsson 《Experimental Astronomy》2017,43(1):39-58
As a continuation to the published work on model based calibration technique with HESP(Hanle Echelle Spectrograph) as a case study, in this paper we present the performance results of the technique. We also describe how the open parameters were chosen in the model for optimization, the glass data accuracy and handling the discrepancies. It is observed through simulations that the discrepancies in glass data can be identified but not quantifiable. So having an accurate glass data is important which is possible to obtain from the glass manufacturers. The model’s performance in various aspects is presented using the ThAr calibration frames from HESP during its pre-shipment tests. Accuracy of model predictions and its wave length calibration comparison with conventional empirical fitting, the behaviour of open parameters in optimization, model’s ability to track instrumental drifts in the spectrum and the double fibres performance were discussed. It is observed that the optimized model is able to predict to a high accuracy the drifts in the spectrum from environmental fluctuations. It is also observed that the pattern in the spectral drifts across the 2D spectrum which vary from image to image is predictable with the optimized model. We will also discuss the possible science cases where the model can contribute. 相似文献
17.
Bianchi Type-V bulk viscous fluid string dust cosmological model in General Relativity is investigated. It has been shown
that if coefficient of bulk viscosity (ζ) is inversely proportional to the expansion (θ) in the model then string cosmological
model for Bianchi Type-V space-time is possible. In absence of bulk viscosity (ζ), i.e. when ζ → 0, then there is no string
cosmological model for Bianchi Type-V space-time. The physical and geometrical aspects of the model are also discussed. 相似文献
18.
A new model of albedo and emissivity of the martian seasonal caps represented as porous CO2 slabs containing spherical voids and dust particles is described. In the model, a radiative transfer model is coupled with a microphysical model in order to link changes in albedo and emissivity to changes in porosity caused by ice metamorphism. The coupled model is capable of reproducing temporal changes in the spectra of the caps taken by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor and it can be used as the forward model in the retrievals of the caps' physical properties (porosity, dust abundance, void and dust grain size) from the spectra. Preliminary results from such inversion studies are presented. 相似文献
19.