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1.
Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Here we refer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H2O and CO2) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H2O and no CO2, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H2O and 2 wt.% CO2 and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered.  相似文献   

2.
The Earth's surface is characterized by the presence of many active volcanoes, most of which are surrounded by ancient villages. High-valued historical sites are often so exposed that it becomes imperative to perform volcanic risk assessment including cultural heritage. For the safeguard of the historical property in volcanic areas, two major problems are definition of (a) criteria for diagnosis and evaluation of hazard and vulnerability, and (b) methods for risk prevention and mitigation. In this paper, we first review the state-of-the-art and most outstanding geophysical prospecting and modeling methods currently on the use, which contribute to the solution of the problems mentioned above. We then show the results of an application on the most alarming volcano in Italy, Mount Vesuvius in the Neapolitan area. The imaged configuration of the feeding and plumbing systems induces to consider Vesuvius a high-risk volcano with a high probability of pyroclastic flow in case of reactivation. Finally, we show the results from a modeling approach of a pyroclastic flow simulating the eruptive scenario of Vesuvius compatible with its internal structure and dynamics. The simulation shows that the emplacement of artificial barriers close to the eruptive vent is a practical solution to reduce the local radial momentum of the pyroclastic flow and to transfer the related energy to the vertical buoyant cloud. The Vesuvius case history allows us to conclude that the integrated geophysical surveying and modeling approach can notably contribute to make decisions and also for the protection of the historical heritage in active volcanic areas.  相似文献   

3.
The last magmatic eruption of Soufrière of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufrière eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2–3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 × 106 m3 DRE (16.3 × 106 m3 bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5–6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 106 m3 (5 × 106 m3 DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3–4 km west–southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.  相似文献   

4.
The Roccamonfina volcanic complex (RVC), in southern Italy, is an Early to Middle Pleistocene stratovolcano sharing temporal and morphological characteristics with the Somma–Vesuvius and the Alban Hills; both being associated with high volcanic hazard for the cities of Naples and Rome, respectively. The RVC is important for the understanding of volcanic evolution in the Roman and Campanian volcanic provinces. We report a comprehensive study of its evolution based on morphological, geochemical and K–Ar geochronological data.  相似文献   

5.
Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.  相似文献   

6.
Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.  相似文献   

7.
A gravity investigation was carried out in the Somma–Vesuvius complex area (Campania, Italy) based on a dataset recently enlarged with new measurements. These cover the volcanic top and fill some other important spatial gaps in previous surveys. Besides the new gravity map of the Vesuvius, we also present the results of a 3D inverse modelling, carried out by using constraints from deep well exploration and seismic reflection surveys. The resulting density model provides a complete reconstruction of the top of the carbonate basement. This is relevant mostly on the western side of the survey area, where no significant information was previously available. Other new information regards the Somma–Vesuvius structure. It consists of an annular volume of rocks around the volcanic vent and that extends down to the carbonate basement. It results to be denser with respect to the surrounding sedimentary cover of the Campanian Plain and to the material located just along the central axis of the volcanic structure. The coherence between these features and other geophysical evidences from previous studies, will be discussed together with the other results of this research.  相似文献   

8.
In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.  相似文献   

9.
Direct measurements of the Earth's magnetic field in Italy since 1640 a.d. have been used to check the remanence directions derived from historically dated volcanic rocks of Etna and Vesuvius. Direct measurements consist of the records of L’Aquila and Pola geomagnetic observatories, the repeat stations of the Italian Magnetic Network and the data base of the Historical Italian Geomagnetic Data Catalogue. All have been relocated to the same reference site (Viterbo — lat. 42.45°N, long. 12.03°E) in order to draw a reference secular variation (SV) curve. The direction of the Earth's field at Viterbo has also been calculated from the historical records (2000-1600) of ref. [Jackson, A., Jonkers, A.R.T., Walker, M.R., 2000. Four centuries of geomagnetic secular variation from historical records. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 358, 957-990] database. The remanence directions from Etna show a general agreement with the trend of the SV curve, although their inclination is usually lower than that from the direct measurement. The directions from Vesuvius are more scattered. Large discrepancies occur at both volcanoes and in some cases have been ascribed in the literature to poor geographic information, making it difficult to identify the flows actually emplaced during the eruptions reported in the chronicles. Closer examination shows that the great majority of the best-defined remanence directions (semi-angle of confidence α95 < 2.5°) deviate significantly from the geomagnetic direction measured at the time of the emplacement, the angle between the two directions being larger than the α95 value. The value of 2.5-3.0° can thus be regarded as a conservative evaluation of the error when dealing with dating Etna and Vesuvius lava flows older than 17th century, even when the accuracy attained in remanence measurements is higher. In default of a SV curve for Italy derived from archaeological artefacts, a further error in dating is introduced when reference is made to SV curves of other countries, even if well-established, as these are from regions too far from Italy (>600 km) to confidently relocate magnetic directions.  相似文献   

10.
Intense explosive activity occurred repeatedly at Vesuvius during the nearly 1,600-year period between the two Plinian eruptions of Avellino (3.5 ka) and Pompeii (79 A.D.). By correlating stratigraphic sections from more than 40 sites around the volcano, we identify the deposits of six main eruptions (AP1-AP6) and of some minor intervening events. Several deposits can be traced up to 20 km from the vent. Their stratigraphic and dispersal features suggest the prevalence of two main contrasting eruptive styles, each involving a complex relationship between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases. The two main eruption styles are (1) sub-Plinian to phreato-Plinian events (AP1 and AP2 members), where deposits consist of pumice and scoria fall layers alternating with fine-grained, vesiculated, accretionary lapilli-bearing ashes; and (2) mixed, violent Strombolian to Vulcanian events (AP3-AP6 members), which deposited a complex sequence of fallout, massive to thinly stratified, scoria-bearing lapilli layers and fine ash beds. Morphology and density variations of the juvenile fragments confirm the important role played by magma-water interaction in the eruptive dynamics. The mean composition of the ejected material changes with time, and shows a strong correlation with vent position and eruption style. The ranges of intensity and magnitude of these events, derived by estimations of peak column height and volume of the ejecta, are significantly smaller than the values for the better known Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions of Vesuvius, enlarging the spectrum of the possible eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius, useful in the assessment of its potential hazard.  相似文献   

11.
The tephrostratigraphic analysis of nine gravity cores acquired on the continental shelf of the Naples and Salerno bays documents the proximal record of Somma–Vesuvius volcanic activity during the latest Holocene (last 3 kyrs). Five tephra layers from southern Naples Bay and three tephra layers from northern Salerno Bay were recognised in cores and their sedimentologic structures, textural parameters, stratigraphy and major and trace-element composition described.  相似文献   

12.
The Vesuvius volcano is a complex system that shows fractal and turbulent behaviours on short time-scales. To capture the intrinsic non-linear dynamic processes of the volcano on longer time-scales, a hybrid system consisting of an Artificial Neural Network and an Evolutionary Algorithm was applied to the well-documented eruptive activity occurring from 1631 onward. An important result of such an investigation is that the next volcanic activity is very unlikely to occur before 2020.  相似文献   

13.
Many new determinations of radioisotope contents of volcanic rocks have been carried out during the last years by techniques giving a satisfactory reliability. Particularly, detailed researches on Italian volcanoes, performed at the Istituto di Fisica Terrestre of the University of Napoli, have outlined the particular behaviour of the main natural radioisotopes in the relative evolutive processes. By comparing the results obtained for the Italian volcanoes with those obtained for other volcanoes from throughout the world, the former have been observed to be exceptionally high. A tentative interpretation is reported. Furthermore, the possibility of an absolute dating of eruptive events upon disequilibria which may be found in the Th232 and U238 series is discussed. An example of contribution of a radiometric survey of volcanic areas to the knowledge of the structure of volcanoes is given.  相似文献   

14.
Since the onset of their eruptive activity within the Cañadas caldera, about 180 ka ago, Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes have mainly produced lava flow eruptions of basaltic to phonoltic magmas. The products from these eruptions partially fill the caldera, and the adjacent Icod and La Orotava valleys, to the north. Although less frequent, explosive eruptions have also occurred at these composite volcanoes. In order to assess the possible evolution Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes and their potential for future explosive activity, we have analysed their recent volcanic history, assuming that similar episodes have the highest probability of occurrence in the near future. Explosive activity during the last 35000 years has been associated with the eruption of both, mafic (basalts, tephro–phonolites) and felsic (phono–tephrites and phonolites) magmas and has included strombolian, violent strombolian and sub-plinian magmatic eruptions, as well as phreatomagmatic eruptions of mafic magmas. Explosive eruptions have occurred both from central and flank vents, ranging in size from 0.001 to 0.1 km3 for the mafic eruptions and from 0.01 to < 1 km3 for the phonolitic ones. Comparison of the Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes with the previous cycles of activity from the central complex reveals that all them follow a similar pattern in the petrological evolution but that there is a significant difference in the eruptive behaviour of these different periods of central volcanism on Tenerife. Pre-Teide central activity is mostly characterised by large-volume (1–> 20 km3, DRE) eruptions of phonolitic magmas while Teide–Pico Viejo is dominated by effusive eruptions. These differences can be explained in terms of the different degree of evolution of Teide–Pico Viejo compared to the preceding cycles and, consequently, in the different pre-eruptive conditions of the corresponding phonolitic magmas. A clear interaction between the basaltic and phonolitic systems is observed from the products of phonolitic eruptions, indicating that basaltic magmatism is the driving force of the phonolitic eruptive activity. The magmatic evolution of Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes will continue in the future with a probably tendency to produce a major volume of phonolitic magmas, with an increasing explosive potential. Therefore, the explosive potential of Teide–Pico Viejo cannot be neglected and should be considered in hazard assessment on Tenerife.  相似文献   

15.
It is now recognised that flank collapses are a recurrent process in the evolution of the Lesser Antilles Arc volcanoes. Large magnitude debris-avalanche deposits have been identified off the coast of Dominica, Martinique and St. Lucia, with associated volumes up to 20 km3 [Deplus, C., Le Friant, A., Boudon, G., Komorowski, J.-C., Villemant, B., Harford, C., Ségoufin, J., Cheminée, J.-L., 2001. Submarine evidence for large-scale debris avalanches in the Lesser Antilles Arc. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 192: 145–157.]. We present new radiometric dating of three major events using the K–Ar Cassignol–Gillot technique. In the Qualibou depression of St. Lucia, a collapse has been constrained by dome emplacement prior to 95 ± 2 ka. In Dominica, where repetitive flank collapse events have occurred [Le Friant, A., Boudon, G., Komorowski, J.-C., Deplus, C., 2002. L'île de la Dominique, à l'origine des avalanches de débris les plus volumineuses de l'arc des Petites Antilles. C.R. Geoscience, 334: 235–243], the Plat Pays event probably occurred after 96 ± 2 ka. Inside the depression caused by this event, Scotts Head, which is interpreted as a proximal megabloc from the subsequent Soufriere avalanche event has been dated at 14 ± 1 ka, providing an older bound for this event. On Martinique three different domes within the Carbets structure dated at 337 ± 5 ka constrain the age of this high magnitude event. Finally, these results obtained from three of the most voluminous flank collapses provide constraints to estimate the recurrence of these events, which represent one of the major hazards associated with volcanoes of the Lesser Antilles Arc.  相似文献   

16.
Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38?%) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7?days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2?mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation.  相似文献   

17.
The eruption of 1631 A.D. was the most violent and destructive event in the recent history of Vesuvius. More than fifty primary documents, written in either Italian or Latin, were critically examined, with preference given to the authors who eyewitnessed volcanic phenomena. The eruption started at 7 a.m. on December 16 with the formation of an eruptive column and was followed by block and lapilli fallout east and northeast of the volcano until 6 p.m. of the same day. At 10 a.m. on December 17, several nuées ardentes were observed to issue from the central crater, rapidly descending the flanks of the cone and devastating the villages at the foot of Vesuvius. In the night between the 16th and 17th and on the afternoon of the 17th, extensive lahars and floods, resulting from rainstorms, struck the radial valleys of the volcano as well as the plain north and northeast.Deposits of the eruption were identified in about 70 localities on top of an ubiquitous paleosol formed during a long preeruptive volcanic quiescence. The main tephra unit consists of a plinian fallout composed of moderately vesicular dark green lapilli, crystals and lithics. Isopachs of the fallout are elongated eastwards and permit a conservative volume calculation of 0.07 km3. The peak mass flux deduced from clast dispersal models is estimated in the range 3–6 × 107 kg/s, corresponding to a column height of 17–21 km. East of the volcano the plinian fallout is overlain by ash-rich low-grade ignimbrite, surges, phreatomagmatic ashes and mud flows. Ash flows occur in paleovalleys around the cone of Vesuvius but are lacking on the Somma side, suggesting that pyroclastic flows had not enough energy to overpass the caldera wall of Mt. Somma. Deposits are generally unconsolidated, massive with virtually no ground layer and occasionally bearing sparse rests of charred vegetation. Past interpretations of the products emitted on the morning of December 17 as lava flows are inconsistent with both field observations and historical data. Features of the final phreatomagmatic ashes are suggestive of alternating episodes of wet ash fallout and rainfalls. Lahars interfingered with primary ash fallout confirm episodes of massive remobilization of loose tephra by heavy rainfalls during the final stage of the eruption.Chemical analyses of scoria clasts suggest tapping of magma from a compositionally zoned reservoir. Leucite-bearing, tephritic-phonolite (SiO2 51.17%) erupted in the early plinian phase was in fact followed by darker and slightly more mafic magma richer in crystals (SiO2 49.36%). During the nuées ardentes phase the composition returned to that of the early phase of the eruption.The reconstruction of the 1631 eruptive scenario supplies new perspectives on the hazards related to plinian eruptions of Vesuvius.  相似文献   

18.
The ratio of 87Sr/86Sr was measured from different water samples of thermal/mineral (hot spring as well as crater lake) and meteoric origins, in order to specify the location and to verify the detailed model of a volcano-hydrothermal system beneath Zao volcano. The ratio showed a trimodal distribution for the case of thermal/mineral water: 0.7052–0.7053 (Type A, Zao hot spring), 0.7039–0.7043 (Type B, Okama crater lake and Shin-funkiko hot spring), and 0.7070–0.7073 (Type C, Gaga, Aone, and Togatta hot springs), respectively. However, in comparison, the ratio was found to be higher for meteoric waters (0.7077–0.7079). The water from the central volcanic edifice (Type B) was found to be similar to that of nearby volcanic rocks in their Sr isotopic ratio. This indicates that the Sr in water was derived from shallow volcanic rocks. The 87Sr/86Sr ratio for water from the Zao hot spring (Type A) was intermediate between those of the pre-Tertiary granitic and the Quaternary volcanic rocks, thus suggesting that the water had reacted with both volcanic and granitic rocks. The location of the vapor–liquid separation was determined as the boundary of the pre-Tertiary granitic and the Quaternary volcanic rocks by comparing the results of this strontium isotopic study with those of Kiyosu and Kurahashi [Kiyosu, Y., Kurahashi, M., 1984. Isotopic geochemistry of acid thermal waters and volcanic gases from Zao volcano in Japan. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 21, 313–331.].  相似文献   

19.
Shear wave splitting parameters represent a useful tool to detail the stress changes occurring in volcanic environments before impending eruptions. In the present paper, we display the parameter estimates obtained through implementation of a semiautomatic algorithm applied to all useful datasets of the following Italian active volcanic areas: Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Mt. Etna. Most of these datasets have been the object of several studies (Bianco et al., Annali di Geofisica, XXXXIX 2:429–443, 1996, J Volcanol Geotherm Res 82:199–218, 1998a, Geophys Res Lett 25(10):1545–1548, 1998b, Phys Chem Earth 24:977–983, 1999, J Volcanol Geotherm Res 133:229–246, 2004, Geophys J Int 167(2):959–967, 2006; Del Pezzo et al., Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(2):439–452, 2004). Applying the semiautomatic algorithm, we confirmed the results obtained in previous studies, so we do not discuss in much detail each of our findings but give a general overview of the anisotropic features of the investigated Italian volcanoes. In order to make a comparison among the different volcanic areas, we present our results in terms of the main direction of the fast polarization (φ) and percentage of shear wave anisotropy (ξ).  相似文献   

20.
Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

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