Do model parameters change under changing climate and land use in the upstream of the Lancang River Basin,China?     

Di Ma  Weidong Xuan  Haiting Gu  Zhilin Sun  Zhixu Bai 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(11):1894-1908

ABSTRACT

Hydrological model parameters may vary under the impacts of climate and land-use change. This study proposes a hydrological modelling framework based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the variability of model parameters in three different experiments and to assess the impacts of climate and/or land-use change on these parameters in the upstream of the Lancang River Basin, China. In Experiment 1 (E1), most parameters show clear temporal trends under changing climate and land use, implying that model parameters are strongly influenced by their combined effects. Experiments 2 (E2) and 3 (E3) investigate the separate impacts of land-use change and climate change, respectively. Due to the almost invisible changes in land use in E2, there is no change detected in the model parameters. Temporal trends are found in most parameters in E3 and over half of them show consistent trends with E1, which indicates that climate change has greater impacts on model parameter variability. The simulated extreme streamflow and sediment fluxes vary substantially with time-variant parameters, implying that the variations in model parameters do matter for hydrological prediction.  相似文献   

Evaluating the dual‐boundary forcing concept in subsurface–land surface interactions of the hydrological cycle          下载免费PDF全文

M. Rahman  M. Sulis  S. J. Kollet 《水文研究》2016,30(10):1563-1573

Subsurface and land surface processes (e.g. groundwater flow, evapotranspiration) of the hydrological cycle are connected via complex feedback mechanisms, which are difficult to analyze and quantify. In this study, the dual‐boundary forcing concept that reveals space–time coherence between groundwater dynamics and land surface processes is evaluated. The underlying hypothesis is that a simplified representation of groundwater dynamics may alter the variability of land surface processes, which may eventually affect the prognostic capability of a numerical model. A coupled subsurface–land surface model ParFlow.CLM is applied over the Rur catchment, Germany, and the mass and energy fluxes of the coupled water and energy cycles are simulated over three consecutive years considering three different lower boundary conditions (dynamic, constant, and free‐drainage) based on groundwater dynamics to substantiate the aforementioned hypothesis. Continuous wavelet transform technique is applied to analyze scale‐dependent variability of the simulated mass and energy fluxes. The results show clear differences in temporal variability of latent heat flux simulated by the model configurations with different lower boundary conditions at monthly to multi‐month time scales (~32–91 days) especially under soil moisture limited conditions. The results also suggest that temporal variability of latent heat flux is affected at even smaller time scales (~1–3 days) if a simple gravity drainage lower boundary condition is considered in the coupled model. This study demonstrates the importance of a physically consistent representation of groundwater dynamics in a numerical model, which may be important to consider in local weather prediction models and water resources assessments, e.g. drought prediction. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region     

Mohamad I. Hejazi  Glenn E. Moglen 《水文研究》2008,22(24):4710-4722

This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Anthropogenic land-use signals propagate through stream food webs in a California,USA, watershed     

《Limnologica》2014

Human development of watersheds can change aquatic ecosystems via multiple pathways. For instance, human rural development may add nutrients to ecosystems. We used naturally occurring stable isotopes in stream food webs to investigate how land use affects stream ecosystems across a gradient of land development in the San Lorenzo watershed, California. Road density was used as a proxy for land development. We found that streams in watersheds with higher road densities had elevated concentrations of phosphate and nitrate. Furthermore, algal δ¹⁵N values increased as a function of nitrate concentration, but saturated at approximately 6‰. This saturating pattern was consistent with a two-source mixing model with anthropogenic and watershed sources, fit using Bayesian model fitting. In sites that had >2.6 km roads km⁻², anthropogenic sources of N were estimated to represent >90% of the N pool. This anthropogenic N signal was propagated to stream consumers: rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), signal crayfish (Pacifasticus leniusculus), and benthic invertebrate δ¹⁵N were positively correlated with algal δ¹⁵N. Even relatively low density rural human land use may have substantial impacts on nutrient cycling of stream ecosystems.  相似文献   

Time domain solution for multiple scattering and the coda envelopes     

Long-Sheng Gao  Song Lin Li 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,132(1-2):123-150

This article summarizes work on multiple scattering based on models of media with randomly distributed scatterers. The scatterers are isotropic and statistically uniform. Measuring distance in terms of mean-free pathL _s and time in terms of the mean-free timesL _s/V, whereV is the velocity of scattered waves, we have more convenient dimensionless distance and time. It can be shown that after the dimensionless time equals 0.65 energy contributed from multiple scattering becomes predominant. Thus the later coda reflects the effect of multiple scattering rather than single scattering. Treating the seismic record, including starting and tail parts, as a whole, the diffusion theory predicts that at a dense distribution of scatterers and a small distance between source and receiver, codas reflect mainly intrinsicQ _i. Of course, this conclusion is coincident with the presumption of the diffusion theory,Q _s>Q _i. However, from a new integral equation of multiple scattering, which deals with the scattered waves and primary waves separately, the conclusion is similar but clearer. This article quotes the new expression for coda energy in two-dimensional space. It shows that if the receiver is close to the source, the coda decay reflects only intrinsicQ _i, then as the distance increases, effects of scatteringQ _s, are involved in the decay feature. The theoretical plots of coda decay show that it seems in most cases in the earthQ _i should not be smaller than one tenth ofQ _s.Project Sponsored by the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation of China.  相似文献   

Spatial variation in soil resistance to flowing water erosion along a regional transect in the Loess Plateau   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

Ren Geng  Guang‐hui Zhang  Zhen‐Wei Li  Hao Wang 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(15):2049-2058

The factors influencing soil erosion may vary with scale. It remains unclear whether the spatial variation in soil erosion resistance is controlled by regional variables (e.g. precipitation, temperature, and vegetation zone) or by local specific variables (e.g. soil properties, root traits, land use, and farming operations) when the study area enlarges from a hillslope or catchment to the regional scale. This study was performed to quantify the spatial variations in soil erosion resistance to flowing water under three typical land uses along a regional transect on the Loess Plateau and to identify whether regional or local specific variables are responsible for these changes. The results indicated that the measured soil detachment capacities (D_c) of cropland exhibited an irregular trend along the regional transect. The D_c of grassland increased with mean annual precipitation, except for two sites (Yijun and Erdos). The measured D_c of woodland displayed an inverted ‘U’ shape. The changes in rill erodibility (K_r) of three land uses were similar to D_c, whereas no distinguishable trend was found for critical shear stress (τ_c). No significant correlation was detected between D_c, K_r and τ_c, and the regional variables. The spatial variation in soil erosion resistance could be explained reasonably by changes in soil properties, root traits, land use, and farming operations, rather than regional variables. The adjustment coefficient of K_r for grassland and woodland could be well simulated by soil cohesion and root mass density (R² = 0.70, P < 0.01), and the adjustment coefficient of critical shear stress could be estimated with aggregate stability (R² = 0.57, P < 0.01). The results are helpful for quantifying the spatial variation in soil detachment processes by overland flow and to develop process‐based erosion model at a regional scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling hydrological response to different land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China     

Sufen Wang  Shaozhong Kang  Lu Zhang  Fusheng Li 《水文研究》2008,22(14):2502-2510

Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, <Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis><Subscript>max</Subscript>   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrzej?KijkoEmail author 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(8):1655-1681

This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum earthquake magnitude m_max for a given seismogenic zone or entire region. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (iii) when no specific type of magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of m_max.The three estimates of m_max for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above, are respectively: 8.32 ± 0.43, 8.31 ± 0.42 and 8.34 ± 0.45. All three estimates are nearly identical, although higher than the value 7.99 obtained by Field et al. (1999). In general, since the third procedure is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum earthquake magnitude m_max is considered more reliable than the other two which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter relation.  相似文献   

Species differences in stomatal control of water loss at the canopy scale in a mature bottomland deciduous forest   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

D. E. Pataki  R. Oren   《Advances in water resources》2003,26(12):1267

In order to evaluate factors controlling transpiration of six common eastern deciduous species in North America, a model describing responses of canopy stomatal conductance (G_S) to net radiation (R_N), vapor pressure deficit (D) and relative extractable soil water (REW) was parameterized from sap flux data. Sap flux was measured in 24 mature trees consisting of the species Carya tomentosa, Quercus alba, Q. rubra, Fraxinus americana, Liriodendron tulipifera, and Liquidambar styraciflua in a bottomland oak-hickory forest in the Duke Forest, NC. Species differences in model coefficients were found during the 1997 growing season. All species showed a reduction in G_S with increasing D. R_N influenced G_S in the overstory shade intolerant L. styraciflua to a larger extent than the other species measured. In addition, despite a severe drought during the study period, only L. tulipifera showed a decline in G_S with decreasing REW. The primary effect of the drought for the other species appeared to be early autumn leaf senescence and abscission. As a result, despite the drought in this bottomland forest accustomed to ample water supply, maximum daily transpiration (1.6 mm) and growing season transpiration (264 mm) were similar to a nearby upland forest measured during a year of above average precipitation. These results may aid in assessing differences in water use and the ability of bottomland deciduous species to tolerate alterations in the frequency or amount of precipitation. Results also suggest little variation in water use among forests of similar composition and structure growing in different positions in the landscape and subjected to large interannual variation in water supply.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of streamflow simulation in the Delaware River Basin to forecasted land‐cover change for 2030 and 2060     

Tanja N. Williamson  Peter Claggett 《水文研究》2019,33(1):115-129

In order to simulate the potential effect of forecasted land‐cover change on streamflow and water availability, there has to be confidence that the hydrologic model used is sensitive to small changes in land cover (<10%) and that this land‐cover change exceeds the inherent uncertainty in forecasted conditions. To investigate this, a 26‐year streamflow record was simulated for 33 basins (54–928 km²) in the Delaware River Basin using three dates of land cover: the 2011 National Land‐Cover Dataset (Homer, Fry, & Barnes, 2012 ), 2030 land‐cover conditions representing median values from 101 equally‐likely forecasts, and 2060 land‐cover conditions corresponding to the same iterations used to represent 2030. Streamflow was simulated using a process‐based hydrologic model that includes both pervious and impervious methods as parameterized by three land‐cover‐based hydrologic response units (HRUs)—forested, agricultural, and developed land. Small, but significant differences in streamflow magnitude, variability, and seasonality were seen among the three time periods—2011, 2030, and 2060. Temporal differences were discernible from the range of conditions simulated with 101 equally likely forecasts for 2030. Development was co‐located with the most frequent landscape components, as characterized by topographic wetness index, resulting in a change in hydrology for each HRU, highlighting that knowing the location of disturbance is key to understanding potential streamflow changes. These results show that streamflow simulation using regional calibration that incorporates land‐cover‐based HRUs can be sensitive to relatively small changes in land‐cover and that temporal trends resulting from land‐cover change can be isolated in order to evaluate other changes that might affect water resources.  相似文献   

Estimation of groundwater use by crop production simulated by DSSAT‐wheat and DSSAT‐maize models in the piedmont region of the North China Plain     

Yonghui Yang  Masataka Watanabe  Xiying Zhang  Xiaohua Hao  Jiqun Zhang 《水文研究》2006,20(13):2787-2802

Sustainable water use is in serious crisis in the piedmont region of the Taihang Mountains in the North China Plain, owing to rapid groundwater drawdown. Estimating the water requirement for agriculture, the biggest user of groundwater, will be helpful in understanding groundwater decline. Through the use of DSSAT‐3·5 wheat and maize models, we assessed water use in winter wheat and maize, two staple crops in the region, in 1987–2001. Trends between groundwater change and simulated agricultural water use were compared. The results showed that groundwater decline was sensitive to simulated crop water requirement and irrigation requirement. According to regression analysis, 100 mm of water requirement by cultivated land (mainly wheat and maize) resulted in about 0·64 m of groundwater decline. This relationship might be useful in understanding the regional water balance and to help decision‐makers control groundwater decline through controlling crop water use or through long‐distance water transfer. The study demonstrated the usefulness of using the DSSAT model for estimating crop water use and the effectiveness of clarifying the reason for groundwater decline using the simulation results of water use. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Understanding changes in annual runoff following land use changes: a systematic data‐based approach     

M. A. Bari  K. R. J. Smettem  M. Sivapalan 《水文研究》2005,19(13):2463-2479

A simple modelling framework for assessing the response of ungauged catchments to land use change in South‐Western Australia is presented. The framework uses knowledge of transpiration losses from native vegetation and pasture and then partitions the ‘excess’ water (resulting from reduced transpiration after land use change) between runoff and deep storage. The simple partitioning is achieved by using soft information (satellite imagery, previous mapping and field assessment) to delimit the spread of the permanently saturated area close to the stream. Runoff is then assumed to increase in proportion to the saturated area, with the residual difference going to deep storage. The model parameters to describe the annual water yield are obtained a priori and no calibration to streamflow is required. We tested the model using gauged records over 25 years from paired catchment experiments in South‐Western Australia. Very good estimates of runoff were obtained from high rainfall (>1100 mm yr⁻¹) catchments (R² > 0·9) and for low rainfall (<900 mm yr⁻¹) catchments after clearing (R² = 0·96) but results were poorer (R² = 0·55) for an uncleared low rainfall catchment, although overall balances were reasonable. In the drier uncleared catchments, the within‐year distributions of rainfall may exert a substantial influence on runoff response that is not completely captured by the presented model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia     

Jai Vaze  Paul Barnett  Geoffrey Beale  Warrick Dawes  Ray Evans  Narendra Kumar Tuteja  Brian Murphy  Guy Geeves  Michelle Miller 《水文研究》2004,18(9):1613-1637

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A simple two‐parameter model for scaling hillslope surface runoff          下载免费PDF全文

Gary J. Sheridan  Philip J. Noske  Patrick N.J. Lane  Owen D. Jones  Christopher B. Sherwin 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(8):1049-1061

The objective of this research was to develop and parameterise a physically justified yet low‐parameter model to quantify observed changes in surface runoff ratios with hillslope length. The approach starts with the assumption that a unit of rainfall‐excess runoff generated at a point is a fraction β of precipitation P (m) which travels some variable distance down a slope before reinfiltrating, depending on the local rainfall, climate, soils, etc. If this random distance travelled Y is represented by a distribution, then a survival function will describe the probability of this unit of runoff travelling further than some distance x (m). The total amount of per unit width runoff Q (m²) flowing across the lower boundary of a slope of length λ (m) may be considered the sum of all the proportions of the units of rainfall excess runoff integrated from the lower boundary x = 0 to the upper boundary x = λ of the slope. Using these assumptions we derive a model Q(λ) = βPμλ/(μ + λ), (μ > 0, 0 ≤ β ≤ 1, λ ≥ 0) that describes the change in surface runoff with slope length, where μ (m) is the mean of the random variable Y. Dividing both sides of this equation by Pλ yields a simple two‐parameter equation for the dimensionless hillslope runoff ratio Q_h(λ) = βμ/(μ + λ). The model was parameterised with new rainfall and runoff data collected from three replicates of bounded 2 m wide plots of four different lengths (0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 m) for 2 years from a forested SE Australian site, and with 32 slope length–runoff data sets from 12 other published studies undertaken between 1934 and 2010. Using the parameterised model resulted in a Nash and Sutcliffe statistic between observed and predicted runoff ratio (for all data sets combined) of 0.93, compared with –2.1 when the runoff ratio was fixed at the value measured from the shortest plot. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Performance of the LandSoil expert-based model to map erosion and sedimentation: application to a cultivated catchment in central Belgium     

Vincent Cantreul  Nathalie Pineux  Gilles Swerts  Charles Bielders  Aurore Degré 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1376-1391

Intensive agricultural practices on sensitive soils induce high erosion rates in central Belgium. Expert-rules models quantify runoff and erosion at catchment scale, avoiding over-parameterization, and can include some direct or indirect connectivity features. The aim of this article is to test the ability of an expert-based model, LandSoil, to quantify runoff and to locate erosion and sedimentation areas in a small cultivated loamy catchment in Belgium during the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. Spatialized data are important for assessing model outputs and the erosive response. Measurements of runoff and observation of spatial erosion/deposition patterns, especially around major connectivity points, permitted an assessment of the reliability of the model results. Runoff modelling gave contrasting results (good linear adjustment at the outlet of the 83 ha sub-catchment (point 1): r² of 0.96, Nash–Sutcliffe criterion of 0.95; less good at the outlet of the 3.9 ha sub-catchment (point 2): r² of 0.28, Nash–Sutcliffe criterion of –0.47). For point 2 the poor results are explained by the very few runoff events observed, a scaling effect and the small area with a single land use. Graduated rulers demonstrate that the model is able to provide a coherent pattern of erosion/deposition. The study highlights great sensitivity to the effect of land use, land allocation, landscape design and slope gradients. Grass strips induce deposition of eroded particles when slopes are gentle (< 2%). Woodland strips decrease connectivity by being in the stream but deposit thinner sediment layers. Field boundaries have a role in the transport, but not really the quantity, of sediments. This model validation in the Belgian loess context allows us to use LandSoil in other similar environments in order to estimate the effects of landscape management scenarios. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing,GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin,Thailand     

Krishna Bahadur KC 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):994-1014

Abstract

This paper assesses strategic water availability and use under different development pathways on a basin scale using remote sensing (RS), geographical information systems (GIS) and a spatial water budget model (SWBM). The SWBM was applied to the Upper Ing Basin in northern Thailand to investigate the spatial and temporal variations in the location of streams and water yields from different parts of the basin. The base simulation was carried out for the years 1998–2007 using a DEM and actual land-use data at 100-m resolution. The simulated stream network was compared with topographic maps under different flow conditions, which were successfully represented. The 10-year average simulated river flow rate was 1300 L/s, but it more than doubled during periods of heavy rainfall and decreased below 600 L/s in dry seasons. The total length of the streams (based on flow threshold of 25 L/s) on a typical day in the dry season differed by a factor of approx. 1.5. Agricultural water needs and possible extraction were assessed and presented by dividing the basin into 10 different zones based on the stream network. The results show that there is the potential for harvesting significant quantities of water at different spatial gradients with no initial water supply for irrigation. Monthly water yields for each zone were computed; the results varied from less than 50% to over 137% of the per hectare water yield for the entire basin. This variation was due to differences in topography and land cover. The impact of land use and climate change on streamwater availability was also studied. The basin shows very different hydrological responses. The changes in average river flow relative to the base simulation were +27.6%,??32.1%, +94% and +52.9% under deforestation, changing land use from paddy field to orchard, bare soil and increased rainfall scenarios, respectively.

Citation Bahadur KC, K. (2011) Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing, GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 994–1014.  相似文献