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1.
Based on the monthly sunspot numbers (SSNs), the solar-flare index (SFI), grouped solar flares (GSFs), the tilt angle of heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and cosmic-ray intensity (CRI) for Solar Cycles 21?–?24, a detailed correlation study has been performed using the cycle-wise average correlation (with and without time lag) method as well as by the “running cross-correlation” method. It is found that the slope of regression lines between SSN and SFI, as well as between SSN and GSF, is continuously decreasing from Solar Cycle 21 to 24. The length of regression lines has significantly decreased during Cycles 23 and 24 in comparison to Cycles 21 and 22. The cross-correlation coefficient (without time lag) between SSN–CRI, SFI–CRI, and GSF–CRI has been found to be almost the same during Cycles 21 and 22, while during Cycles 23 and 24 it is significantly higher between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI than for SFI–CRI and GSF–CRI. Considering time lags of 1 to 20 months, the maximum correlation coefficient (negative) amongst all of the sets of solar parameters is observed with almost the same time lags during Cycles 21?–?23, whereas exceptional behaviour of the time lag has been observed during Cycle 24, as the correlation coefficient attains its maximum value with two time lags (four and ten months) in the case of the SSN–CRI relationship. A remarkably large time lag (22 months) between HCS and CRI has been observed during the odd-numbered Cycle 21, whereas during another odd cycle, Cycle 23, the lag is small (nine months) in comparison to that for other solar/flare parameters (13?–?15 months). On the other hand, the time lag between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI has been found to be almost the same during even-numbered Solar Cycles 22 and 24. A similar analysis has been performed between SFI and CRI, and it is found that the correlation coefficient is maximum at zero time lag during the present solar cycle. The GSFs have shown better maximum correlation with CRI as compared to SFI during Cycles 21 to 23, indicating that GSF could also be used as a significant solar parameter to study the cosmic-ray modulation. Furthermore, the running cross-correlation coefficient between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI, as well as between solar-flare activity parameters (SFI and GSF) and CRI is observed to be strong during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. The level of cosmic-ray modulation during the period of investigation shows the appropriateness of different parameters in different cycles, and even during the different phases of a particular solar cycle. We have also studied the galactic cosmic-ray modulation in relation to combined solar and heliospheric parameters using the empirical model suggested by Paouris et al. (Solar Phys.280, 255, 2012). The proposed model for the calculation of the modulated cosmic-ray intensity obtained from the combination of solar and heliospheric parameter gives a very satisfactory value of standard deviation as well as \(R^{2}\) (the coefficient of determination) for Solar Cycles 21?–?24. 相似文献
2.
Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) encounter an outward-moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuation and turbulence. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts from the ground-based neutron monitor stations show intensity changes that are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with a lag of a few months. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and influence space weather and the terrestrial climate. In this work, we investigate certain aspects of the GCR modulation at low cut-off rigidity (R c≈1 GV) in relation to some solar and geomagnetic indices for the entire solar cycle 23 (1996?–?2008). We separately study the GCR modulation during the ascending phase of cycle 23 including its maximum (1996?–?2002) and the descending phase including its minimum (2003?–?2008). We find that during the descending phase, the GCR recoveries are much faster than those of the solar parameters with negative time-lag. The results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects and previous results. 相似文献
3.
Chandni Mathpal Lalan Prasad Meena Pokharia Chandrashekhar Bhoj 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(8):177
In the present study, we investigate the association of cosmic ray intensity (CRI) with various solar wind parameters (i.e. solar wind speed V, plasma proton temperature, plasma proton density), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF B), geomagnetic storms (GSs), averaged planetary A-index (Ap index) and sun spot number (SSN) for the period 2009–2016 (solar cycle 24) by using their daily mean average. To find the association of CRI with various solar wind parameters, GSs, IMF B, Ap index and SSN, we incorporate the analysis technique by superposed-epoch method. We have observed that CRI decreases with the increase in IMF B. Moreover the time-lag analysis has been performed by the method of correlation coefficient and observed a time lag of 0 to 2 day between the decrease in CRI and increase in IMF B. In addition, we show that the CRI is found to decrease in a similar pattern to disturbance storm time (Dst index) for most of the period of solar cycle 24. The high and positive correlation is found between CRI and Dst index. The CRI and Ap index are better anti-correlated to each other than CRI and IMF. CRI and SSN are positively correlated with each other. Solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed V is a CR-effective parameter while plasma proton temperature and plasma proton density are not CR-effective parameters. The indicated parameters such as Dst index, Ap index, IMF B and solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed V, plasma proton temperature, plasma proton density shows a kind of irregular variations for solar cycle 23 and 24 while CRI and SSN shows distinct behaviour for the two cycle. 相似文献
4.
We study the temporal evolution of cosmic ray intensity during ～27-day Carrington rotation periods applying the method of superposed epoch analysis. We discuss about the average oscillations in the galactic cosmic ray intensity, as observed by ground based neutron monitors, during the course of Carrington rotation in low solar activity conditions and in different polarity states of the heliosphere (A<0 and A>0). During minimum and decreasing phases in low solar activity conditions, we compare the oscillation in one polarity state with that observed in other polarity state in similar phases of solar activity. We find difference in the evolution and amplitude of ～27-day variation during A<0 and A>0 epoch. We also compare the average variations in cosmic ray intensity with the simultaneous variations of solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength. From the correlation analysis between the cosmic ray intensity and the solar wind speed during the course of Carrington rotation, we find that the correlation is stronger for A>0 than A<0. 相似文献
5.
We study the solar-activity and solar-polarity dependence of galactic cosmic-ray intensity (CRI) on the solar and heliospheric parameters playing a significant role in solar modulation. We utilize the data for cosmic-ray intensity as measured by neutron monitors, solar activity as measured by sunspot number (SSN), interplanetary plasma/field parameters, solar-wind velocity [V] and magnetic field [B], as well as the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet [Λ], and we analyze these data for Solar Cycles 20?–?24 (1965?–?2011). We divide individual solar cycles into four phases, i.e. low, high, increasing, and decreasing solar activity. We perform regression analysis to calculate and compare the CRI-response to changes in different solar/interplanetary parameters during
- different phases of solar activity and
- similar activity phases but different polarity states.
6.
We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic-ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the relation between simultaneous variations in cosmic ray intensity and solar/interplanetary parameters during the declining and the minimum phases of cycle 23. We compare these relations with those obtained for the same phases in the three previous solar cycles. We observe certain peculiar features in cosmic ray modulation during the minimum of solar cycle 23 including the record high GCR intensity. We find, during this unusual minimum, that the correlation of GCR intensity is poor with sunspot number (correlation coefficient R=?0.41), better with interplanetary magnetic field (R=?0.66), still better with solar wind velocity (R=?0.80) and much better with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (R=?0.92). In our view, it is not the diffusion or the drift alone, but the solar wind convection that is the most likely additional effect responsible for the record high GCR intensity observed during the deep minimum of solar cycle 23. 相似文献
7.
Sunspot observations since 1610 A.D. show that the solar magnetic activity displays long-term changes, from Maunder Minimum-like low-activity states to Modern Maximum-like high-activity episodes, as well as short-term variations, such as the pronounced 11-year periodicity. Information on changes in solar activity levels before 1610 relies on proxy records of solar activity stored in natural archives, such as 10Be in ice cores and 14C in tree rings. These cosmogenic radionuclides are produced by the interaction between Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and atoms in the Earth’s atmosphere; their production rates are anti-correlated with the solar magnetic activity. The GCR intensity displays a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the GCRs in the heliosphere, which is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle. This implies a time lag between the actual solar cycles and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) records of the 10Be flux to reconstruct the solar modulation strength (Φ), which describes the modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere, to reconstruct both long-term and subdecadal changes in sunspot numbers (SSNs). We compare three different approaches for reconstructing subdecadal-scale changes in SSNs, including a linear approach and two approaches based on the hysteresis effect, i.e. models with ellipse–linear and ellipse relationships between Φ and SSNs. We find that the ellipse approach provides an amplitude-sensitive reconstruction and the highest cross-correlation coefficients in comparison with the ellipse–linear and linear approaches. The long-term trend in the reconstructed SSNs is computed using a physics-based model and agrees well with the other group SSN reconstructions. The new empirical approach, combining a physics-based model with ellipse-modeling of the 11-year cycle, therefore provides a method for reconstructing SSNs during individual solar cycles based on 10Be in ice cores. This, in turn, represents a new window for studying short-term changes in solar activity on unprecedented timescales, which may help improve our understanding of the solar dynamo. 相似文献
8.
Long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays were compared with the behavior of various solar activity indices and heliospheric
parameters during the current solar cycle. This study continues previous works where the cosmic-ray intensity for the solar
cycles 20, 21, and 22 was well simulated from the linear combination of the sunspot number, the number of grouped solar flares,
and the geomagnetic index A
p. The application of this model to the current solar cycle characterized by many peculiarities and extreme solar events led
us to study more empirical relations between solar-heliospheric variables, such as the interplanetary magnetic field, coronal
mass ejections, and the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and cosmic-ray modulation. By analyzing monthly cosmic-ray
data from the Neutron Monitor Stations of Oulu (cutoff rigidity 0.81 GV) and Moscow (2.42 GV) the contribution of these parameters
in the ascending, maximum, and descending phases of the cycle was investigated and it is shown that a combination of these
parameters reproduces the majority of the modulation potential variations during this cycle. The approach applied makes it
possible to better describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of the solar maxima, which could not be done before.
An extended study of the time profiles, the correlations, and the time lags of the cosmic-ray intensity against these parameters
using the method of minimizing RMS over all the considered period 1996 – 2006 determines characteristic properties of this
cycle as being an odd cycle. Moreover, the obtained hysteresis curves and a correlative analysis during the positive polarity
(qA>0, where q is the particle charge) and during the negative polarity (qA<0) intervals of the cycle result in significantly different behavior between solar and heliospheric parameters. The time
lag and the correlation coefficient of the cosmic-ray intensity are higher for the solar indices in comparison to the heliospheric
ones. A similar behavior also appears in the case of the intervals with positive and negative polarity of the solar magnetic
field. 相似文献
9.
Several studies show that temporal variations in the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity display a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The 11-year periodicity of GCRs is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle, implying that there is a time lag between actual solar cycle and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the hysteresis effect to model the relationship between neutron counting rates (NCRs), an indicator of the GCR intensity, and sunspot numbers (SSNs) over the period that covers the last four solar cycles (20, 21, 22, and 23). Both linear and ellipse models were applied to SSNs during odd and even cycles in order to calculate temporal variations of NCRs. We find that ellipse modeling provides higher correlation coefficients for odd cycles compared to linear models, e.g. 0.97, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.97 compared to 0.69, 0.72, 0.53, and 0.68 for data from McMurdo, Swarthmore, South Pole, and Thule neutron monitors, respectively, during solar cycle 21 with overall improvement of 31 % for odd cycles. When combined to a continuous model, the better correlation observed for the odd cycles increases the overall correlation between observed and modeled NCRs. The new empirical model therefore provides a better representation of the relationship between NCRs and SSNs. A major goal of the ongoing research is to use the new non-linear empirical model to reconstruct SSNs on annual time scales prior to 1610, where we do not have observational records of SSNs, based on changes in NCRs reconstructed from 10Be in ice cores. 相似文献
10.
From the monthly data of cosmic ray intensity (CRI), sunspot numbers (SSN) and solar flare index (SFI), an attempt has been
made to study the relationship between CRI and solar activity (SA) parameters SSN and SFI. The correlation between SA parameters
and CRI for different neutron monitoring stations having low, middle and high cut-off rigidity has been investigated. The
anti-correlation between SA and CRI is found to exist with some time lag. Based on the method of minimizing correlation coefficient
and time-delayed component method, the observed time-lag between SA parameters (SSN and SFI) and CRI has been found to be
large for odd solar cycles in comparison to even solar cycles. The results of time-lag analysis between CRI and SSN and between
CRI-SFI have also been compared. The findings of correlative study between CRI and SSN are in agreement with earlier results,
while the CRI-SFI relationship provides new insights to understand the solar modulation of cosmic rays. 相似文献
11.
Cosmic-ray intensity data for the period 1964–1985 covering two solar cycles are used to investigate the solar activity behaviour in relation to cosmic-ray modulation. A detailed statistical analysis of them shows a large time-lag of about one and half years between cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity (as indicated by sunspot number, solar flares and high-speed solar-wind streams) during the 21st solar cycle appearing for a first time. This lag indicates the very high activity level of this solar cycle estimating the size of the modulating region to the unambiguous value of 180 AU. The account of the solar-wind speed in the 11-year variation significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic-rays to the value of 40 AU.A comparison with the behaviour of the previous solar cycle establishes a distinction between even and odd solar cycles. This is explained in terms of different contributions of drift, convection and diffusion to the whole modulation mechanism during even and odd solar cycles. 相似文献
12.
We study the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) due to high-speed streams (HSS) identified in the solar wind. We compare the GCR modulation due to i) streams with different speed, ii) streams of different duration, and iii) streams from different solar sources. We apply the method of superposed-epoch analysis to analyze the interplanetary plasma and field parameters during the passage of streams with distinct plasma and field characteristics. We use the plasma/field characteristics to distinguish various features of solar sources and interplanetary structures, and discuss the observed differences in the cosmic-ray response. We study the influence of speed, duration, and solar sources of the streams on the GCR modulation. We discuss the relative importance of different solar-wind parameters in the modulation process. 相似文献
13.
We analyze and compare the geomagnetic and galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) response of selected solar events, particularly the campaign events of the group International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) of the program Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact (VarSITI). These selected events correspond to Solar Cycle 24, and we identified various of their features during their near-Earth passage. We evaluated the hourly data of geomagnetic indices and ground-based neutron monitors and the concurrent data of interplanetary plasma and field parameters. We recognized distinct features of these events and solar wind parameters when the geomagnetic disturbance was at its peak and when the cosmic-ray intensity was most affected. We also discuss the similarities and differences in the geoeffectiveness and GCR response of the solar and interplanetary structures in the light of plasma and field variations and physical mechanism(s), which play a crucial role in influencing the geomagnetic activity and GCR intensity. 相似文献
14.
The solar activity can be quantified by solar modulation parameter Φ that affects the heliospheric magnetic field. This activity influences the intensity of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particle flux within the solar system, and consequently, the differential primary particle spectra depend on the solar modulation parameter Φ (MeV). The modulation parameter Φ shows spatial and temporal variations (Leya and Masarik 2009). Some of the solar activity variations are cyclic and result in measurable effects as for example the 11‐year solar cycle. Variations in solar activity only induce small effects on the production of long‐lived cosmogenic radionuclides. This is due to the fact that activities measured in meteorites usually correspond to saturation values and represent long‐term average values. Long‐lived radionuclides often require millions of years of irradiation by GCR to reach saturation and therefore activity cycles average out. In contrast, one can expect strongly pronounced variations for saturation values caused by primary flux intensity variations, if short‐lived radionuclides with half‐lives ranging from days to a few years are investigated. Short‐lived cosmogenic nuclides were the subject of many experimental and theoretical investigations (e.g., Evans et al. 1982; Spergel et al. 1986; Neumann et al. 1997; Komura et al. 2002; Laubenstein et al. 2012). The aim of this work is to develop formulae for calculating production rates of radionuclides with short half‐life, taking into account temporal variations in the primary cosmic ray intensity. The developed formulae were applied to the Kosice and Chelyabinsk meteorites. The results for the Ko?ice meteorite were already published (Povinec et al. 2015). Here, we give a full explanation of underlying model. 相似文献
15.
A detailed correlative analysis between sunspot numbers (SSN) and tilt angle (TA) with cosmic ray intensity (CRI) in the neutron
monitor energy range has been performed for the solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. It is found that solar activity parameters (SSN
and TA) are highly (positive) correlated with each other and have inverse correlation with cosmic ray intensity (CRI). The
‘running cross correlation coefficient’ between cosmic ray intensity and tilt angle has also been calculated and it is found
that the correlation is positive during the maxima of odd cycles 21 and 23. Moreover, the time lag analysis between CRI and
SSN, and between CRI and TA has also been performed and is supported by hysteresis curves, which are wide for odd cycles and
narrow for even cycles. 相似文献
16.
In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation. 相似文献
17.
We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in
their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over
more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study,
we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of
lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month
to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity
indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset
and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar
emission at various wavelengths.
The High Altitude Observatory is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
18.
Data of hourly interplanetary plasma (field magnitude, solar wind speed, and ion density), solar (sunspot number, solar radio
flux), and geomagnetic indices (Kp, Ap) over the period 1970-2010, have been used to examine the asymmetry between the solar
field north and south of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). A persistent yearly north-south asymmetry of the field magnitude
is clear over the considered period, and there is no magnetic solar cycle dependence. There is a weak N-S asymmetry in the
averaged solar wind speed, exhibited well at times of maximum solar activities. The solar plasma is more dense north of the
current sheet than south of it during the second negative solar polarity epoch (qA < 0). Moreover, the N - S asymmetry in solar activity (Rz) can be statistically highly significant. The sign of the average N - S asymmetry depends upon the solar magnetic polarity.
The annual magnitudes of N - S asymmetry depend positively on the solar magnetic cycle. Most of the solar radio flux asymmetries
occurred during the period of positive IMF polarity. 相似文献
19.
Interplanetary structures such as shocks, sheaths, interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), magnetic clouds, and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are of special interest for the study of the transient modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These structures modulate the GCR intensity with varying amplitudes and recovery-time profiles. It is known that ICMEs are mainly responsible for Forbush decreases in the GCR intensity. However, not all of the ICMEs produce such decreases in GCR intensity. We utilize GCR intensity data recorded by neutron monitors and solar-wind plasma/field data during the passage of ICMEs with different features and structures, and we perform a superposed-epoch analysis of the data. We also adopt the best-fit approach with suitable functions to interpret the observed similarities and differences in various parameters. Using the GCR-effectiveness as a measure of the cosmic-ray response to the passage of ICMEs, about half of the ICMEs identified during 1996?–?2009 are found to produce moderate to very large intensity depressions in GCR intensity. The ICMEs associated with halo CMEs, magnetic-cloud (MC) structures, bidirectional superthermal electron (BDE) signatures, and those driving shocks are 1.5 to 4 times more GCR effective than the ICMEs not associated with these structures/features. Further, the characteristic recovery time of GCR intensity due to shock/BDE/MC/halo-CME-associated ICMEs is larger than those due to ICMEs not associated with these structures/features. 相似文献
20.
We have studied the 27-day variations and their harmonics in Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, solar wind velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components during the recent prolonged solar minimum 23/24. The time evolution of the quasi-periodicity in these parameters connected with the Sun’s rotation reveals that the synodic period of these variations is ≈?26?–?27 days and is stable. This means that the changes in the solar wind speed and the IMF are related to the Sun’s near-equatorial regions in considering the differential rotation of the Sun. However, the solar wind parameters observed near the Earth’s orbit provide only the conditions in the limited local vicinity of the equatorial region in the heliosphere (within ±?7° in latitude). We also demonstrate that the observed period of the GCR intensity connected with the Sun’s rotation increased up to ≈?33?–?36 days in 2009. This means that the process that drives the 27-day GCR intensity variations takes place not only in the limited local surroundings of the equatorial region but in the global 3-D space of the heliosphere, covering also higher latitude regions. A relatively long period (≈?34 days) found for 2009 in the GCR intensity gives possible evidence of the onset of cycle 24 due to active regions at higher latitudes and rotating slowly because of the Sun’s differential rotation. We also discuss the effect of differential rotation on the theoretical model of the 27-day GCR intensity variations. 相似文献