共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
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M. L. Shelton 《自然地理学》2013,34(3):204-221
A fully allocated surface water supply in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon, intensifies concern for the watershed's response to climate change. Such concern provides the impetus for this case study of the basin under a potential doubling of atmospheric trace gas concentrations (2 × CO2). Modeling the watershed as four sectors incorporates climate and landscape heterogeneity and defines a control climate that closely simulates adjusted gaged runoff. Monthly temperature and precipitation from a limited area model nested in a global circulation model define changes for modeling the watershed 2 × CO2 climate. Precipitation increases are greatest in the Wickiup sector and least in the Little Deschutes sector for a 2 × CO2 climate, but snow-water equivalent decreases substantially in all sectors. Summer water deficits are extended and magnified in all sectors and increase by 175% in the Wickiup sector. Water surplus increases range from 34% for Wickiup to 5% for Benham Falls. Average monthly runoff for the Upper Deschutes Basin increases by 7 mm or 24% in the 2 × CO2 climate, but the greatest monthly runoff differences are for the Crescent Lake sector, where February and March runoff increase by 68% and May runoff decreases by 10%. The earlier occurrence of maximum and minimum 2 × CO2 climate runoff of one to five months significantly alters the Upper Deschutes Basin runoff regime. [Key words: mesoscale hydroclimate model, climate change, Deschutes River Basin.] 相似文献
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Robert G. Cromley Jie Lin David A. Merwin 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(3):495-517
A common problem in location-allocation modeling is the error associated with the representation and scale of demand. Numerous researchers have investigated aggregation errors associated with using different scaled data, and more recently, error associated with the geographic representation of model objects has also been studied. For covering problems, the validity of using polygon centroid representations of demand has been questioned by researchers, but the alternative has been to assume that demand is uniformly distributed within areal units. The spatial heterogeneity of demand within areal units thus has been modeled using one of two extremes – demand is completely concentrated at one location or demand is uniformly distributed. This article proposes using intelligent areal interpolation and geographic information systems to model the spatial heterogeneity of demand within spatial units when solving the maximal covering location problem. The results are compared against representations that assume demand is either concentrated at centroids or uniformly distributed. Using measures of scale and representation error, preliminary results from the test study indicate that for smaller scale data, representation has a substantial impact on model error whereas at larger scales, model error is not that different for the alternative representations of the distribution of demand within areal units. 相似文献
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Perimeter shape of drainage basins is evaluated as a control of annual runoff depth from small Sierra Nevada basins underlain by granitic rocks. In contrast to three perimeter shape ratios, none of which contributes a statistical explanation of annual runoff depth, three terms of a Fourier expansion of the basin perimeter substantially improve the estimating model. When added to annual precipitation, the first, third, and seventh Fourier amplitudes increase statistical explanation by 15 percent and prediction accuracy by 10 percent. These improvements are much greater than corresponding gains atributable to other morphological variables. [Key words: basin runoff, basin shape, Sierra Nevada.] 相似文献
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设定两种独立的调参方案,检验将高/低分辨率下的调参值应用到低/高分辨率中驱动模型模拟的可行性;同时分析驱动数据分辨率的差异对模型模拟生态水文过程的影响;此外,设置9种集水面积阈值,分析驱动数据分辨率与集水面积阈值对模拟结果的影响。结果表明两种调参方案下模拟的水文与生态数据相关性强、差异小,说明调参方案受驱动数据分辨率的影响不明显;分辨率对土地覆被和土壤类型面积影响小,而对高程和坡度影响大;驱动数据分辨率降低,模拟径流的均值减小、峰值增大、生态变量值增大;驱动数据分辨与集水面积阈值之间不存在交互作用;集水面积阈值增大,模拟径流的均值、峰值均减小,生态变量值也减小,但阈值变化对峰现时间无影响。 相似文献
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由于土壤特性和植被分布具有区域性,不同流域土壤有效厚度存在差异,进而影响土壤蓄水容量和陆面水碳等通量的时空分布。以湿润地区的东江流域,湿润、半湿润地区的淮河流域以及半湿润、半干旱地区的泾河流域为研究对象,采用LPJ动态植被模型,以水量平衡为目标率定土壤有效厚度,分析不同气候区典型流域土壤有效厚度以及土壤蓄水容量和陆面水碳通量（径流量R,实际蒸散发量ET和净初级生产力NPP）变化。结果表明：东江、淮河、泾河流域的土壤有效厚度分别为70 cm、90 cm和140 cm,土壤有效厚度和蓄水容量随着气候干旱程度增加而增加;土壤有效厚度的修正有效减低该模型水平衡误差,对陆面水碳通量模拟结果的影响程度与区域气候条件有关,湿润地区多年平均径流深和实际蒸散发修正前后变化显著,半湿润、半干旱地区NPP变化显著。研究成果为提高LPJ模型在不同气候区应用可靠性提供参考依据。 相似文献
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模糊坡位信息在精细土壤属性空间推测中的应用 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
坡位的空间渐变特征影响着小流域及坡面尺度上的土壤、水文、地貌等现象和过程,因此对精细尺度下的地理建模(如土壤空间信息推理)有重要作用。虽然目前已有多种模糊坡位信息定量提取方法,但所得到的模糊坡位信息还缺乏实际应用。本文以精细尺度下的土壤属性空间分布推测为例,对此展开探索。应用模型假设:(1)在小流域内,地形因素主导着土壤属性空间分布的变化;(2)典型坡位上对应分布着典型的土壤属性值,土壤属性与坡位之间存在协同变化关系。据此建立以模糊坡位信息对各类典型坡位上土壤样点属性值的加权平均模型,推测土壤属性的空间分布。模型应用于黑龙江省嫩江流域一个地形平缓的小区(面积约60 km2),通过一个以坡位典型位置作为原型的模糊坡位定量方法提取5类坡位(山脊、坡肩、背坡、坡脚、沟谷)的空间渐变信息,对土壤表层有机质含量的空间分布进行推测。推测结果通过研究区70个土壤采样点进行评价,以推测结果与评价样点集之间的相关系数、平均绝对误差、均方根误差作为定量评价指标,与使用常用地形属性的多元线性回归模型推测结果进行对比。评价结果表明,仅使用极少建模点的加权平均模型的推测结果优于多元线性回归模型的推测结果。 相似文献
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降雨的空间不均性对模拟产流量和产沙量不确定的影响 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
在传统的水文/水质模型中,降雨被认为是在空间上均匀分布并且对模型输出的不确定性不产生影响。本文的目的是评价由于降雨的空间分布不均匀性对模型输出-产流量和产沙量-不确定性的影响。本文选取卢氏流域为研究区域,使用SWAT模型和流域内24个雨量站的降雨作为模型的输入。基于降雨空间分布均匀的假定下,每次用一个雨量站的点雨量来作为流域的面平均降雨量,模拟的产流量和产沙量的不确定性来自于降水的不均匀性。模拟的产流量和产沙量的不确定性大于降雨的不确定性,结果表明,在运用水文/水质模型时,为了准确的模拟、预测产流量和产沙量必须掌握降雨的空间分布特性并将其应用于水文、水质模拟之中。 相似文献
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María C. Mateo Sánchez Samuel A. Cushman Santiago Saura 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(8):1531-1546
Animals select habitat resources at multiple spatial scales. Thus, explicit attention to scale dependency in species–habitat relationships is critical to understand the habitat suitability patterns as perceived by organisms in complex landscapes. Identification of the scales at which particular environmental variables influence habitat selection may be as important as the selection of variables themselves. In this study, we combined bivariate scaling and Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling to investigate multiscale habitat selection of endangered brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in northwest Spain. Bivariate scaling showed that the strength of apparent habitat relationships was highly sensitive to the scale at which predictor variables are evaluated. Maxent models on the optimal scale for each variable suggested that landscape composition together with human disturbances was dominant drivers of bear habitat selection, while habitat configuration and edge effects were substantially less influential. We found that explicitly optimizing the scale of habitat suitability models considerably improved single-scale modeling in terms of model performance and spatial prediction. We found that patterns of brown bear habitat suitability represent the cumulative influence of habitat selection across a broad range of scales, from local resources within habitat patches to the landscape composition at broader spatial scales. 相似文献
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T. Edwin Chow Michael E. Hodgson 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(10):1277-1295
This paper examines the effect of scale (exhibited by spatial sampling) in modeling mean slope from lidar data using two representations of scale: lidar posting density (i.e. post‐spacing) and DEM resolution (i.e. cell size). The study areas selected include six small (i.e. approximately 3 km2) urban drainage basins in Richland County, SC, USA, which share similar hydrologic characteristics. This research spatially sampled an airborne lidar dataset collected in 2000 at a 2 m nominal posting density to simulate lidar posting density at various post‐spacings, from 2 m through 10 m. DEMs were created from the lidar observations at a corresponding cell size using spatial interpolation. Finally, using these DEMs, a sensitivity analysis between modeled terrain slope and lidar post‐spacing was conducted. Results of the sensitivity analyses showed that the deviation between mean slope and modeled mean slope decreases with finer posting density and DEM resolution. The relationship of mean slope with varying cell sizes and post‐spacing suggests a linear and a logarithmic function, respectively, for all study areas. More importantly, cell size has a greater effect on mean slope than lidar posting density. Implications of these results for lumped hydrologic modeling are then postulated. 相似文献
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Sean Cornell 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(1):131-133
The fluvial system represents a nested hierarchy that reflects the relationship among different spatial and temporal scales. Within the hierarchy, larger scale variables influence the characteristics of the next lower nested scale. Ecoregions represent one of the largest scales in the fluvial hierarchy and are defined by recurring patterns of geology, climate, land use, soils, and potential natural vegetation. Watersheds, the next largest scale, are often nested into a single ecoregion and therefore have properties that are indicative of a given ecoregion. Differences in watershed morphology (relief, drainage density, circularity ratio, relief ratio, and ruggedness number) were evaluated among three ecoregions in eastern Oklahoma: Ozark Highlands, Boston Mountains, and Ouachita Mountains. These ecoregions were selected because of their high-quality stream resources and diverse aquatic communities and are of special management interest to the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. One hundred thirty-four watersheds in first- through fourth-order streams were compared. Using a nonparametric, two-factor analysis of variance (α= 0.05) we concluded that the relief, drainage density, relief ratio, and ruggedness number all changed among ecoregion and stream order, whereas circularity ratio only changed with stream order. Our study shows that ecoregions can be used as a broad-scale framework for watershed management. 相似文献
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城市不透水面与降雨径流关系研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
城市不透水面增加对降雨径流关系有着重要的影响,本研究选择位于福州城区内的厦坊溪和解放溪2个流域,在流域尺度上研究现状和城区未来扩展过程中对应的不透水率及其与降雨一径流关系．研究结果表明不透水率与径流系数在不同降雨情况下都成正相关的线性关系,尺。达到0．9以上;随着降雨量的增大并伴随着前期湿润度由干到湿变化,虽然不透水率对地表径流的影响有所弱化,但整体而言,城市不透水面的增加导致相同降雨情况下径流系数增加,并增大城市排水系统负担．利用研究结果,论文最后从保护河网水系、合理规划城区发展、完善排水系统和加强绿地系统建设等方面对城市规划提出建议． 相似文献
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Jie Chen Shih-Lung Shaw Feng Lu Mingxiao Li Shifen Cheng 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(9):1770-1786
Fine-grained prediction of urban population is of great practical significance in many domains that require temporally and spatially detailed population information. However, fine-grained population modeling has been challenging because the urban population is highly dynamic and its mobility pattern is complex in space and time. In this study, we propose a method to predict the population at a large spatiotemporal scale in a city. This method models the temporal dependency of population by estimating the future inflow population with the current inflow pattern and models the spatial correlation of population using an artificial neural network. With a large dataset of mobile phone locations, the model’s prediction error is low and only increases gradually as the temporal prediction granularity increases, and this model is adaptive to sudden changes in population caused by special events. 相似文献
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流域非点源污染模拟研究--以滇池流域为例 总被引：18，自引：2，他引：16
流域的水质管理是一个多步骤的过程,数学模型以其定量计算和动态操作在流域管理中起着重要作用。本文利用美国EPA开发的HSPF(HydrologicalSimulationProgramFortran)模型,选取云南滇池流域作为案例,给出非点源污染模型流域水文水质的模拟过程。首先在子流域划分的基础上,完成数据库的建立。参数估值主要依据流域性质、先前经验值、其他模拟研究和文献中的取值。参数优化、模型校正和模拟验证是采用流域河流出口流量和污染物浓度值完成。最后用校正后的模型计算了滇池流域河流入湖流量及各子流域污染总负荷量与非点源污染负荷量。 相似文献
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Trevor Fuller PhD student 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):272-274
A relatively simple modeling approach for estimating spatially distributed surface energy fluxes was applied to two small watersheds, one in a semi-arid climate region and one in a sub-humid region. This approach utilized a combination of ground-based meteorological data and remotely sensed data to estimate ‘instantaneous’ surface energy fluxes at the time of the satellite or aircraft overpasses. The spatial resolution in the watershed grid cells, which was on the order of 100-400 km, was selected to be compatible with ground measurements used for validation. The model estimates of surface energy fluxes compared well with ground-based measurements of surface flux (typically within approximately 40 Wm?2). The model accuracy may be slightly less for bare soil surfaces due to an overestimation of the soil heat flux. In addition to demonstrating the feasibility of computing spatially distributed values of surface energy fluxes, these maps were used to qualitatively infer the dominant factors controlling the energy fluxes for the time period shortly following precipitation events in the basins. For the semi-arid watershed, values of sensible heat flux varied considerably over the watershed and displayed a pattern very similar to that of the spatially variable cumulative precipitation for at least one to eight days prior to the image acquisition. Due to the large fraction of exposed bare soil in a semi-arid ecosystem, even very small precipitation events had a strong influence on the pattern of sensible heat fluxes observed shortly after the event (less than 24 hours). For the sub-humid watershed, the fluxes tended to be more uniform across the watershed, and were influenced by a combination of precipitation total and land cover type. 相似文献
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Jeon-Young Kang Jared Aldstadt 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(1):193-213
Spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely utilized to simulate the dynamics of spatial processes that involve the interactions of individual agents. The assumptions embedded in the ABMs may be responsible for uncertainty in the model outcomes. To ensure the reliability of the outcomes in terms of their space-time patterns, model validation should be performed. In this article, we propose the use of multiple scale spatio-temporal patterns for validating spatially explicit ABMs. We evaluated several specifications of vector-borne disease transmission models by comparing space-time patterns of model outcomes to observations at multiple scales via the sum of root mean square error (RMSE) measurement. The results indicate that specifications of the spatial configurations of residential area and immunity status of individual humans are of importance to reproduce observed patterns of dengue outbreaks at multiple space-time scales. Our approach to using multiple scale spatio-temporal patterns can help not only to understand the dynamic associations between model specifications and model outcomes, but also to validate spatially explicit ABMs. 相似文献