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1.
利用月平均ＯＬＲ、降水和气温资料,研究了ＥＮＳＯ期间赤道太平洋对流活动与我国夏季降水和气温的关系。结果表明：春季、夏季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国夏季江淮地区的降水有密切关系;春季和前一年冬季西太平洋对流活动异常与东北地区夏季降水有显著相关。前一年冬季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国降水的显著相关区是不同的,前者为华南、西南地区,后者为东北至内蒙古一带。气温与同期中、西太平洋对流活动的相关不显著。 相似文献
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利用月平均ＯＬＲ、降水和气温资料,研究了ＥＮＳＯ期间赤道太平洋对流活动与我国夏季降水和气温的关系。结果表明：春季、夏季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国夏季江淮地区的降水有密切关系;春季和前一年冬季西太平洋对流活动异常与东北地区夏季降水有显著相关。前一年冬季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国降水的显著相关区是不同的,前者为华南、西南地区,后者为东北至内蒙古一带。气温与同期中、西太平洋对流活动的相关不显著。 相似文献
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用SVD方法分析了1、4、7月全球OLR与夏季(6—8月)中国华中区域降水场的关系,结果表明:若1月南非东部沿岸至西印度洋、北美北部OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation)偏低(偏高),或北非、美国西南沿岸及近海OLR偏高(偏低),则夏季长江中游降水将偏多(偏少)。若4月澳大利亚至东印度洋、日界线以东热带太平洋OLR偏低(偏高),或西北太平洋偏高(偏低),则夏季长江中游降水将偏多(偏少)。若7月东印度洋—澳大利亚大陆、东亚OLR偏低(偏高),则夏季华中区域长江及其以北降水将偏多(偏少),湖南和江西南部降水将偏少(偏多)。夏季长江中游旱、涝年前期OLR明显的区别在于热带太平洋:涝年1月东、西太平洋为明显负、正异常,4月这种异常进一步加剧;旱年1月正好相反,东、西太平洋为微弱的正、负异常,4月转为东、西太平洋为微弱的负、正异常。太平洋暖池OLR低值区(强对流区)4、7月持续偏南,是夏季长江中游降水偏多的另一重要信号。冬、春季OLR与夏季长江中游降水大尺度关联的可能机制为:若1月热带东、西太平洋OLR为明显负、正异常,4月这种异常进一步加剧,也即冬、春季热带太平洋Walker环流持续减弱,从而使夏季暖池对流活动减弱,热带辐合带偏南,Hadley环流偏弱,使夏季西太平洋副热带高压主体位置偏南,导致中国夏季主雨带不能北推至黄河流域,而长期滞留长江中下游,最后造成长江中游降水异常。 相似文献
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利用 1 979～ 2 0 0 3年月平均射出长波辐射 (OLR)资料 ,分析了中国夏季江淮多 (少 )雨年的同期及前期热带太平洋地区OLR场分布特征。通过定义和计算OLR对流强度指数 ,探讨对流活动与中国夏季雨型的关系。结果表明 ,夏季热带西太平洋地区平均对流活动强度与同期江淮地区降水有很好的反相关关系 ,即当热带西太平洋地区对流活动强时 ,江淮地区降水易偏少 ,当对流活动弱时 ,江淮地区降水易偏多。不仅如此 ,前期冬、春季对流活动强度与夏季对流活动强度有明显的正相关关系 ,则可利用前期冬、春季对流活动强度对当年中国夏季降水趋势进行预测和补充订正。因此 ,热带西太平洋地区对流活动强弱对于中国夏季降水预测有一定的指示意义。 相似文献
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Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) has been shown to play an important role in climatic diagnosis
and long-term prediction and research. With the OLR data 1974 ~ 1997 as observed by satellites, the
characteristics are computed. The results are used to depict the location and intensity of the subtropical high in
the study of the relationship between the annual frequency of tropical cyclones affecting the Fujian province and
ITCZ / subtropical high. It is shown that in years of fewer (more) tropical cyclones, the ITCZ is southward
(northward) located with weaker (stronger) intensity, and the subtropical high is southward (northward). As
shown in the relationship between the anomalous years of tropical cyclones and characteristics of preceding
OLR fields, the OLR anomalies are just oppositely distributed in the Pacific Ocean for years of more (fewer)
tropical cyclones. In other words, the years of fewer (more) tropical cyclones are associated with positive
anomalies of OLR in the tropical west Pacific but negative (positive) anomalies in the equatorial central and
eastern Pacific. It is hoped that our study be setting foundation for short-term climatological prediction of tropical cyclones. 相似文献
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利用1959—2011年北半球500 hPa高度格点资料、74项环流特征量资料和1974—2011年NOAA OLR月平均资料,结合江西83个气象观测站的1959—2011年4月降水资料,对2011年4月江西降水异常偏少成因进行了初步诊断分析。结果表明：江西省4月降水有一定的周期性,2011年4月降水处于少雨期;La Ni觡a次年4月西太平洋副热带高压强度易偏弱,位置正常或偏南、偏东,导致向北输送的暖湿气流较常年明显偏弱;大西洋—欧洲环流呈E型分布,青藏高原位势高度明显偏高;赤道西太平洋附近对流活动偏强,我国大陆及东南沿海、赤道中太平洋东部附近对流活动偏弱是造成降水明显偏少的主要原因。 相似文献
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The NOAA daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the Global
Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） daily precipitation data are used
to study the variation of dominant convection modes and their relationships
over Asia, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean during the
summers from 1997 to 2004. Major findings are as follows: (1) Regression
analysis with the OLR indicates the convective variations over Asian monsoon
region are more closely associated with the convective activities over the
western subtropical Pacific (WSP) than with those over the northern tropical
Indian Ocean (NTIO). (2) The EOF analysis of OLR indicates the first mode
(EOF1) exhibits the out-of-phase variations between eastern China and India,
and between eastern China and the WSP. The OLR EOF1 primarily exhibits
seasonal and even longer-term variations. (3) The OLR EOF2 mostly displays
in-phase convective variations over India, the Bay of Bengal, and
southeastern China. A wavelet analysis reveals intraseasonal variation (ISV)
features in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004. However, the effective ISV does not
take place in every year and it seems to occur only when the centers of an
east--west oriented dipole reach enough intensity over the tropical Indian
and western Pacific Oceans. (4) The spatial patterns of OLR EOF3 are more
complicated than those of EOF1 and EOF2, and an effective ISV is noted from
1999 to 2004. The OLR EOF3 implies there is added complexity of the OLR
pattern when the effective ISV occurs. (5) The correlation analysis suggests
the precipitation over India is more closely associated with the ISV,
seasonal variations, and even longer-term variations than precipitation
occurring over eastern China. 相似文献
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云南初夏雨量与前期热带OLR的联系 总被引：12，自引：4，他引：8
利用热带海区１９７９—１９８８年１０年卫星观测的ＯＬＲ资料,结合同期１０年的云南降水资料,重点分析了南海和孟加拉湾海区的ＯＬＲ变化对后期云南降水的影响,发现南海、孟加拉湾海区的前期ＯＬＲ值高低与云南初夏少雨、多雨有密切的联系。 相似文献
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1 INTRODUCTION The Tropical Cyclone (TC) moving prediction is always difficult and important in operation. Though the numerical prediction and satellite data have contributed to the promotion of prediction capability in this way[1 – 3], it is not as satisfying for the unusual track of TC, and the primary reason is that the TC moving direction is influenced by many complicated factors. Therefore, further study of unusual TC motion using high-resolution satellite data is very important … 相似文献
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热带对流和环流季内振荡强度与海表温度关系对比研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用外逸长波辐射(OLR）、风场和海表温度(SST)资料, 研究了热带大气季节内振荡(ISO)强度的季节变化特征, 发现热带印度洋和热带西太平洋区域是OLR和风场季内振荡最主要的共同活跃区。对比分析了OLR和风场季内振荡强度与海表温度异常之间的年际异常关系, 发现OLR季内振荡强度异常与海表温度异常之间存在显著局地正相关关系, 即在热带中东太平洋区域、热带西北太平洋区域和热带西南太平洋区域, 当海表温度正(负)异常时, OLR季内振荡增强(减弱),特别在冬春季节这一关系更清楚。除个别区域外, 风场季内振荡强度异常与海表温度异常不存在类似OLR的局地关系。OLR和风场季内振荡强度异常与海表温度异常之间局地和非局地关系的差异, 体现了两种要素特性的本质差异。但两种要素季内振荡强度在El Niño事件发展过程中的变化基本一致, 即在气候场中季内振荡活跃的区域, 事件发生之前季内振荡会增强, 并逐渐向东传播, 事件发生之后这些区域振荡减弱。 相似文献
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The timing of the South Asian High (SAH) establishment over the Indochina Peninsula (IP) from April to May and its relations to the setup of the subsequent tropical Asian summer monsoon and precipitation over eastern-central China in summer are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data and the daily precipitation data from 753 weather stations in China. It is found that the transitions of the zonal wind vertical shear and convection establishment over tropical Asia are earlier (later) in the years of early (late) establishment of SAH. In the lower troposphere, anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly circulation dominates the equatorial Indian Ocean. Correspondingly, the tropical Asian summer monsoon establishes earlier (later). Furthermore, the atmospheric circulation and the water vapor transport in the years of advanced SAH establishment are significantly different from the delayed years in Asia in summer. Out-of-phase distribution of precipitation in eastern-central China will appear with a weak (strong) SAH and western Pacific subtropical high, strong (weak) ascending motion in the area south of Yangtze River but weak (strong) ascending motion in the area north of it, and cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) water vapor flux anomaly circulation from the eastern-central China to western Pacific. Accordingly, the timing of the SAH establishment at the upper levels of IP is indicative of the subsequent onset of the tropical Asian summer monsoon and the flood-drought pattern over eastern-central China in summer. 相似文献
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ENSO期间赤道太平洋对流活动异常对我国冬季风的影响 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
利用月平均风场和ＯＬＲ资料,通过ＳＶＤ方法研究了前期６个月,３个月和同期赤道太平洋对流活动异常与我国冬季风场的相互关系,得出：我国冬季环流异常与前期夏季,秋季和同期赤道中太平洋对流活动异常有关,还与同期,前期秋季赤道西太平洋对流活动异常有关,同期的显著区域较大,超前３个月和６个月时显著相关区主要位于长江以南和西北地区,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ年,赤道中太平洋对流活动加强,西太平洋对要位于长江以南和西北地区,Ｅ 相似文献
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In the summers of 2003 and 2007, eastern China suffered similar climate disasters with severe flooding in the Huaihe River valley and heat waves in the southern Yangtze River delta and South China. Using SST data and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA along with reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, the 2002/03 and 2006/07 El Ni(n)o episodes in the central Pacific and their delayed impacts on the following early summertime climate anomalies of eastern China were analyzed. The possible physical progresses behaved as follows: Both of the moderate E1 Ni(n)o episodes matured in the central equatorial Pacific during the early winter. The zonal wind anomalies near the sea surface of the west-central equatorial Pacific excited equatorial Kelvin waves propagating eastward and affected the evolution of the E1 Ni(n)o episodes. From spring to early summer, the concurring anomalous easterly winds in the central equatorial Pacific and the end of upwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward in the western equatorial Pacific, favored the equatorial warm water both of the SST and the subsurface temperature in the western Pacific. These conditions favored the warm state of the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer for both cases of 2003 and 2007. Due to the active convection in the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer and the weak warm SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific from spring to early summer, the convective activities in the western Pacific warm pool showed the pattern in which the anomalous strong convection only appeared over the southern regions of the tropical western Pacific warm pool, which effects the meridional shift of the western Pacific subtropical high in the summer. The physical progress of the delayed impacts of the E1 Nifio episodes in the central equatorial Pacific and their decaying evolution on the climate anomalies in eastern China were interpreted through the key role of special pattern for the heat convection in the tropical western Pacific warm pool and the response of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. 相似文献
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利用1982～1996年逐月平均SST和OLR资料,首先通过奇异值分解（SVD）技术研究了热带太平洋大气对流活动和海温场的时间和空间结构及其相互关系。结果表明,第一模态都明显地反映出ENSO信息,两场间具有很高的相关。分析了80年代以来的E1 Ni?o/La Ni?a盛期的热带太平洋对流活动场以及NINO 3指数与OLR场的点相关,结果指出,中东太平洋和西太平洋上存在类似偶极子型的两个符号相反的相关区,与SVD第一模态空间分布型十分相似。由此建立了反映ENSO期间热带中东太平洋和西太平洋反向变化的对流涛动 相似文献
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ON THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL AND INFLUENCE ON SOUTHERN CHINA USING MONTHLY OLR ANOMALIES FOR PRIME SUMMER 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
With the OLR data,the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones(TC) in southern China over a 20-year period(1975～1994) are studied.The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China.The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence.To some externt,the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region. 相似文献
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采用１９７９～１９９４年ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ再分析风场资料和ＯＬＲ资料,研究了热带对流的变化特征,讨论了热带对流年际变化与东亚夏季风的关联。指出：夏季热带对流存在以西太平洋暖池附近和赤道中太平洋附近中心的年际变化方差大值区,且这两个中心的充变化呈偶极型反位相振荡,这种偶极型对流活动与东亚夏季风有密切关系。当暖池附近对流偏强（弱）,赤道中太平洋附近对流偏弱（强）时,东亚夏季风偏强（弱）,雨带偏北（南） 相似文献