共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The scientific community is confident that warming of the Earth’s climate is unequivocal. Sea-level rise, which poses potential threats to coastal areas, is one of the most recognised possible impacts of this climate change. The nonlinearities, complexities, and spatial and temporal lags are common characteristics of coastal processes driven by human and natural interaction. With the acknowledgement of the complexity and dynamic nature of coastal systems, this paper introduces a spatial–temporal assessment framework, for addressing both the temporal and spatial variations, when assessing the vulnerability of natural and human systems in coastal areas. The framework is based upon a combination of system dynamics (SD) modelling and geographical information systems by taking into account spatial (x, y, z) and temporal (t) dimensions. The strategy of the adopted approach is to use the loose coupling approach by which a spatial model component is incorporated into a SD model component through a data converter. 相似文献
2.
Complexity, land-use modeling, and the human dimension: Fundamental challenges for mapping unknown outcome spaces 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Land-use systems are characterized by complex interactions between human decision-makers and their biophysical environment. Mismatches between the scale of human drivers and the impacts of human decisions potentially threaten the ecological sustainability of these systems. This article reviews sources of complexity in land-use systems, moving from the human decision level to human interactions to effects over space, time and scale. Selected challenges in modeling such systems and potential resolutions are discussed, including strategies to empiricize complex models and methods for linking models across human and natural systems. Illustrative examples from published literature and an ongoing research project focused on timber harvest and carbon sequestration are used throughout the paper. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of remaining challenges to modeling indirect and cross-scale linkages and of the potential utility of complex models of land systems. 相似文献
3.
可液化土中地铁结构的地震响应 总被引：14，自引：3，他引：11
在饱和土耦合作用与土和结构相互作用理论基础上,以地铁车站为例,用有限元法研究地下结构在地震液化作用下的响应。所采用的软件为动力两相体非线性有限元软件Dyna-Swandyne-II,该软件可以应用先进的Pastor-Zienkiewicz III广义塑性模型模拟可液化土的动力特性,应用u-p形式的Biot方程,在有限元分析中充分考虑孔隙水与土之间的耦合,同时考虑地下结构与饱和土在动力作用下的非线性相互作用。分析了地铁车站的动力响应,包括地铁内力、加速度以及地铁位移。研究结果表明,地铁结构在地震液化作用下会产生较大的上浮,从而对结构造成比较严重的破坏;地铁结构在地震作用下的最大内力位于结构的交接处。因此,结构交接处的配筋应该格外小心。 相似文献
4.
Implication of coupled natural and human systems in sustainable rangeland ecosystem management in HKH region 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The sustainable development of rangeland ecosystems, the vital ecosystems providing many important ecosystem services for
millions of people in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region is presently confronted with a number of challenges. A coupled natural
and human systems approach is needed to facilitate effective collaboration among social scientists, bio/physical scientists,
and management practitioners to better understand how people interact with the environment in which they live. In pursuing
this argument, three existing case studies, i.e. Indigenous rangeland management in Himalayan Nepal, Cultivated Grassland
Systems in Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and Grassland Restoration in Central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were synthesized
in this paper to address the importance of coupled natural and human systems in promoting sustainable rangeland ecosystem
management in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region. It was concluded although the research sites and objectives were very
different, that these three case studies had many commonalities that addressed the complex interactions and feedbacks between
natural and human systems, and highlighted the integration of various tools and techniques from the ecological and social
sciences, as well as other disciplines, in sustainable rangeland management. These case studies have offered unique interdisciplinary
insights into complexities that cannot be gained from ecological or social research alone. The results from these case studies
can be applied to many other coupled systems at local, national, and global levels. 相似文献
5.
Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Miguel F. Acevedo J. Baird Callicott Donald Lyons Judith Rosales Magdiel Ablan Giorgio Tonella Emilio Vilanova 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):846-866
We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions. 相似文献
6.
CHENG Hangxin PENG Min ZHAO Chuandong HAN Wei WANG Huiyan WANG Qiaolin YANG Fan 《地学前缘》2019,26(6):320-354
The Earth's surface is a complex system involving mutual interactions of its many components, including mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes and grasses. The interaction and mutual feedback of chemical elements in Earths surface layer can drive changes in chemical elemental distribution patterns. In this study, we evaluated the mechanisms and interactions driving the distribution patterns of macroelements, probiotics, halogens and heavy metals in soils in Southwest China, based on a systematic geochemical land-quality survey at a scale of 1250000. The results showed that the parent material determines the natural state of chemical elements in land resources. Epigenetic geochemical dynamics reshapes the distribution patterns of chemical elements in top soil; biogeochemical processes drive the evolutionary trends of land quality; and human activities, such as mining, disrupt the natural evolution of chemical elemental distribution patterns. The establishment of an epigenetic geochemical dynamics theory allows the construction of a framework for understanding the Earths surface layer and promoting technological innovations for the comprehensive geochemical investigation of land resources. 相似文献
7.
於崇文 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2002,21(2):103-113
笔将复杂性理论及非线性科学与矿床地质学相结合,对我国扬子古陆周缘6个矿集区的基本范式进行系统研究。结果指出,成矿系统总体上是开放、远离平衡、时－空延展的动力学系统。它们具有复杂性和自组织临界性的内禀基本属性,并且在混沌边缘分形生长。 相似文献
8.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):406-418
Extreme events are significant determinants of the character and evolution of many natural and human systems. When extreme events occur at the interface between natural and human systems, they are often called “disasters.” Here, we use a systemic, contextual view of disasters to construct a framework for organizing research and policy. Within this framework, reduction of vulnerability is the organizing principle, and decision processes (which lead to reduced vulnerability) are the fundamental unit of analysis and action. Scientific research is connected to decision processes through knowledge—integrating activities such as prediction, observation, and heuristics. But the value of research depends on its capacity to enhance decision-making capabilities. Our goal is to define an approach by which policy—relevant research questions can be more readily recognized. and societally valuable (i.e., vulnerabilityreducing) knowledge can be more effectively created and used. 相似文献
9.
从深部矿地球化学勘查实际需求出发,根据近年来20余个矿床研究结果,总结提出了热液成因有色金属矿床矿致异常规律--多维异常体系。多维异常体系是指产出在特定成矿地质时期地质体中,空间有序共存、形成机理各异、成矿指向递进的多属性地球化学异常体系,将在斑岩型、矽卡岩型、热液型以及沉积改造型等与热液作用有关的有色金属矿产深部矿预测和评价中发挥重要作用。以安徽马头斑岩型钼铜矿为例,对该矿床多维异常体系进行了探讨。结果表明: 在该矿床中,存在着以Na2O为代表的负异常体系、以S为代表的矿化剂元素异常体系、矿化剂元素S与Fe和成矿元素间协同平衡体系、成矿及其伴生元素异常体系等,这些异常体系对成矿的指示作用是递进的,从而证实了多维异常体系的存在。对应用多维异常体系思路预测和评价深部矿进行了说明。 相似文献
10.
非线性动力系统理论与地貌学研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
非线性动力系统理论及其基本概念迅速地向地貌领域渗透和发展，使得愈来愈多的地貌学家运用ＮＤＳ的知识结构和思维方式认识地貌现象和地貌发展，许多地貌系统在时空上都显示出非线性或混沌的行为和方式。这些复杂性可能是地貌系统的不平衡、组成的多样和外界环境的变的结果。 相似文献
11.
在地球化学、天体化学乃至宇宙化学领域中,有一个应用十分广泛的著名的偶数规则(即Oddo-Harkins规律),该规律认为,元素在太阳系分布中,原子序数为偶数的元素丰度通常会比相邻的两个奇数元素丰度值高.通过研究发现,化学元素在宇宙不同自然体系中分布与分配,至少对非亲气元素而言,在统计上还呈周期性变化,而这种周期性变化恰好和元素周期律吻合.而偶数规则也和元素周期性变化规律存在着某种深刻的联系,实际上是同一地球化学现象不同侧面的反映.以地球和金星等自然体系的化学元素质量丰度的比值为例,说明任意两个自然体系,其形成与演化的历程、机制、程度、条件以及物质的来源和化学构成愈是接近,二者之间的元素比值的变化波形就愈符合元素周期律.定量地确定元素在自然体系中分布/分配曲线对元素周期性变化曲线的吻合程度.元素在自然体系分布上的元素周期性变化规律的发现及其量化描述的实现,为更科学地、精确地计算、校验和获取自然体系中化学元素的一些基础数据,提供了一个全新的思路. 相似文献
12.
Global climate change, nonpoint source pollution, watershed and wildlife habitat destruction, and unsustainable development
are damaging the natural world, threatening the socio-cultural integrity of communities, and jeopardizing the livelihood security
of peoples worldwide. Despite the past 50 years of progress in addressing environmental damage in the United States and elsewhere,
intractable problems have arisen that to date have eluded successful technological or policy responses. Solutions have been
sought by recognizing that these problems are very complex and demand interdisciplinary approaches that require building effective
partnerships among relevant academic institutions, governmental agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and private business,
as well as levering various disciplines and traditional knowledge systems. Such thinking has evolved to now consider humans
to be an integral part of nature, which is captured in the idea of the ‘human ecosystem’, where biophysical, socioeconomic,
and cultural systems interact via a complex set of organizational, spatial, and temporal ‘couplings’. Within such a context,
environmental problems can be viewed as coupled human and natural systems, which afford unique and novel approaches to their
solutions. This paper discusses the development of the coupled systems approach as a scientific methodology, reviews its key
characteristics and principles, provides an example of how it has been applied to assess conservation issues in alpine areas
of Northwest Yunnan Province, China, and recommends how this scientific approach might be further developed for use in mountainous
landscape regions of Central Asia and elsewhere. 相似文献
13.
In this paper, we look into the theory of designing geoservice systems, i.e., SDI networks and their constituent SDI nodes.
As the field of SDI is strongly about bridging between geoservice systems, interoperability and harmonisation, it is not surprising
that standardisation efforts are of crucial importance in it. These efforts have historically addressed abstract and concrete
content models for data and metadata exchange, as well as abstract and concrete behavioural models for computational processes.
The list of standards that are in use in the SDI field continues to expand, and reaches out to neighbouring fields such as
sensor nets. We argue that given these trends, the resulting levels of standardisation in actual systems, and the complexity
of geoservice systems in general, it appears only natural to look into the possibility to define a standardised design theory for SDI and its nodes, which addresses the function base and the communication base. Specifically, we provide an overview
of those components that need to be designed, and what are their relationships. We do so in an abstract way, focussing on
the concern of information content in this paper, and only hinting at an appropriate theory of realisation based on our skeleton
theory. 相似文献
14.
J. Birkmann P. Buckle J. Jaeger M. Pelling N. Setiadi M. Garschagen N. Fernando J. Kropp 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(3):637-655
Disaster associated with natural hazards can lead to important changes—positive or negative—in socio-ecological systems. When
disasters occur, much attention is given to the direct disaster impacts as well as relief and recovery operations. Although
this focus is important, it is noteworthy that there has been little research on the characteristics and progress of change
induced by disasters. Change, as distinct from impacts, encompasses formal and informal responses to disaster events and their
direct and indirect impacts. While smaller disasters do not often lead to significant changes in societies and organizational
structures, major disasters have the potential to change dominant ways of thinking and acting. Against this background, the
article presents an analytical framework for distinguishing change from disaster impacts. Drawing from research in Sri Lanka
and Indonesia, formal and informal changes after the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 are examined and discussed against the background
of the conceptual framework. The changes examined range from the commencement of the peace process in Aceh, Indonesia, to
organizational and legal reforms in Sri Lanka. The article concludes that change-making processes after disasters need to
be understood more in depth in order to derive important strategic policy and methodological lessons learned for the future,
particularly in view of the increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making due to climate change. 相似文献
15.
塔里木盆地天然气运聚系统与运聚模式 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
对塔里木盆地东部地层压力结构和天然气性质差异的研究表明,塔里木盆地东部具有多个独立的天然气运聚系统。这些运聚系统具有流体封存箱的特征。天然气只能在运聚系统内部进行短距离的运移,不能进行大规模侧向运移。因此天然气藏的形成具有近源的特点。由于不同运聚系统特征的差异,塔里木盆地大致有三种天然气运聚模式。 相似文献
16.
《Geoforum》2017
Climate change increases the complexity and uncertainty of regional natural resource management (NRM), calling into question the appropriateness of linear knowledge-transfer approaches. In this paper we reflect on knowledge practices among a partnership of researchers and NRM planners, under a federal program of NRM investment intended to ‘deliver information’ to regional NRM planners to support planning for climate change. We unpack ‘container’ and ‘conduit’ metaphors of linear, one-way communication invoked by the starting conditions, and explore whether more relational ways of communicating were achieved. A key theme emerged early in the research that NRM planners felt overwhelmed by the sheer volume of information available and discouraged by the irrelevance of much of it to their climate change planning. Our research-practice collaboration unfolded in this context and through ongoing face-to-face and virtual engagement over a period of two years. The collaborative approach featured joint identification of priority activities, co-design of planning approaches, and the iterative co-development of an online ‘information portal’, which acted as a boundary object. We report the emergence of a ‘knowing system’, resulting from these efforts to foster relationships and co-produce boundary objects in a particular geographic context. Our findings highlight the potential benefits of investing in the capacity of researchers and NRM practitioners to engage in collaborative research partnerships premised on the emergence of knowing systems. 相似文献
17.
《Geoforum》2017
Armed conflict has played an increasingly important role in the transformation of key social and environmental systems at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Accelerated resource flows and environmental change dynamics intersect with conflict processes in ways that are substantial and yet inadequately understood. Drawing on research along the Pakistani border in eastern Afghanistan’s embattled province of Nangarhar, we employ a coupled systems approach for understanding the ways in which social-ecological processes shape and are shaped by armed conflict. Based on field surveys, geospatial analysis of land and forest change, and participatory research among local communities, government agencies and military actors, we identify several causal processes linking conflict and dynamics of social-ecological change in the context of multiscalar geopolitical processes. We focus attention on four inter-related elements: (1) transitional modes of resource governance relating to armed militia groups and state intervention, (2) forest changes related to illegal logging and trade networks, (3) the erosion of upper-montane rangelands through encroachment and changing pastoral responses to conflict, and (4) significant land use changes in the agricultural sector toward the cultivation of opium poppy. Our research highlights the importance of center-periphery relations, the problematic nature of local agency, and the ways in which local social-ecological elements—here, particularly, timber and opium—become political objects within competing narratives of (in)security and ongoing state formation. 相似文献
18.
Does scale exist? An epistemological scale continuum for complex human-environment systems 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Steven M. Manson 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):776-788
Scale pervades interdisciplinary research on human-environment systems that exhibit hallmarks of complexity such as path dependence, nonlinearity, and surprise. Although scale concepts are woven through the data, methodology, and theory of human-environment research, the question remains: does scale exist? More broadly, can a single definition of scale suffice for human-environment systems? The meaning and use of scale is contested across the social, natural, and information sciences. Given that the study of human-environment systems spans many of these disciplines, specific research problems inherit a broad range of conflicting scale concepts. This paper proposes an epistemological scale continuum that arrays scale perspectives from the realist contention that there are natural scales independent of observers through to the constructionist view that scale is subjective and socially mediated. As seen in biocomplexity and human-environment research more broadly, this scale continuum establishes that scale is not a single measure or object of study, nor is any single definition of scale sufficient for human-environment systems. Viewpoints and tensions among scale epistemologies also suggest several general principles for using scale effectively in human-environment research. 相似文献
19.
Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development. 相似文献