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1.
我国夏季雨型的前期异常特征及预报方法的初步研究   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3  
用1951~1995年资料研究了我国东部夏季降水各雨型的前期大气环流及我国地面气象要素场的异常特征.结果表明,在冬季1月份北太平洋地区、秋季中国南海地区的海平面气压场有预报我国夏季雨型的信号.夏季不同雨型的前期冬季特征不同,我国的降水、气温场也有差异,4月份我国大范围的温度异常也是值得注意的预测信号.这些特征可以作为我国夏季雨型的预报信号及预报工具.  相似文献   

2.
Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs of the South and East Asian summer monsoon variability and their tele-connections are investigated using historical simulations (1861-2005) and future projections under the RCP4.5 scenario (2006-2100). Detailed analyses are performed using nine models having better representation of the recent monsoon teleconnections for the interactive Asian monsoon sub-systems. However, these models underestimate rainfall mainly over South Asia and Korea-Japan sector, the regions of heavy rainfall, along with a bias in location of rainfall maxima. Indeed, the simulation biases, underestimations of monsoon variability and teleconnections suggest further improvements for better representation of Asian monsoon in the climate models. Interestingly, the performance of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0 (ACCESS1.0) in simulating the annual cycle, spatial pattern of rainfall and multi-decadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall over South and East Asia appears to more realistic. In spite of large spread among the CMIP5 models, historical simulations as well as future projections of summer monsoon rainfall indicate multi-decadal variability. These rainfall variations, displaying certain epochs of more rainfall over South Asia than over East Asia and vice versa, suggest an oscillatory behaviour. Teleconnections between South and East Asian monsoon rainfall also exhibit a multi-decadal variation with alternate epochs of strengthening and weakening relationship. Furthermore, large-scale circulation features such as South Asian monsoon trough and north Pacific subtropical high depict zonal oscillatory behaviour with east-west-east shifts. Periods with eastward or westward extension of the Mascarene High, intensification and expansion of the upper tropospheric South Asian High are also projected by the CMIP5 models.  相似文献   

3.
Distribution of seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region   总被引:8,自引:1,他引:8  
Summary ?This study deals with the climatological aspect of seasonal rainfall distribution in the East Asian monsoon region, which includes China, Korea and Japan. Rainfall patterns in these three countries have been investigated, but little attention has been paid to the linkages between them. This paper has contributed to the understanding of the inter-linkage of various sub-regions. Three datasets are used. One consists of several hundred gauges from China and South Korea. The second is based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). The two sources of precipitation information are found to be consistent. The third dataset is the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 850-hPa winds. The CMAP precipitation shows that the seasonal transition over East Asia from the boreal winter to the boreal summer monsoon component occurs abruptly in mid-May. From late March to early May, the spring rainy season usually appears over South China and the East China Sea, but it is not so pronounced in Japan. The summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia commonly begins from mid-May to late May along longitudes of eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. A strong quasi-20-day sub-seasonal oscillation in the precipitation appears to be dominant during this rainy season. The end date of the summer monsoon rainy season in eastern China and Japan occurs in late July, while the end date in the Korean Peninsula is around early August. The autumn rainy season in the Korean Peninsula has a major range from mid-August to mid-September. In southern China, the autumn rainy season prevails from late August to mid-October but a short autumn rainy season from late August to early September is noted in the lower part of the Yangtze River. In Japan, the autumn rainy season is relatively longer from mid-September to late October. The sub-seasonal rainfall oscillation in Korea, eastern China and Japan are explained by, and comparable to, the 850-hPa circulation. The strong westerly frontal zone can control the location of the Meiyu, the Changma, and the Baiu in East Asia. The reason that the seasonal sea surface temperature change in the northwestern Pacific plays a critical role in the northward advance of the onset of the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia is also discussed. Received October 5, 2001; revised April 23, 2002; accepted May 11, 2002  相似文献   

4.
Summary The influence of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode on the extreme summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia (China, Korea, Japan) has been investigated applying simple statistical techniques of correlation and composite analysis. While the observed rainfall data are used as a measure of rainfall activity, the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis data are used to examine the circulation features associated with the extreme monsoon phases and the dynamics of the zonal mode – monsoon variability connections. The data used covers the period 1960 to 2000.The equatorial Indian Ocean is dominated by westerly winds blowing towards Indonesia. However, during the positive phase of the zonal mode, an anomalous, intensified easterly flow prevails, consistent with the positive (negative) sea surface temperature anomalies over the western (southeastern) equatorial Indian Ocean. This positive phase of the zonal mode enhances summer monsoon activity over China, but suppresses the monsoon activity over the Korea-Japan sector, 3 to 4 seasons later. The relationship is more consistent and stronger over the Korea-Japan region than over China.The Indian Ocean influences the monsoon variability over East Asia via the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes or via the eastern Indian Ocean/west Pacific route. The monsoon-desert mechanism induces strong subsidence northwest of India due to the anomalous convection over the Indian Ocean region associated with the positive phase of the zonal mode. This induces a zonal wave pattern over the mid-latitudes of Asia propagating eastwards and displacing the north Pacific subtropical high over East Asia. The warming over the eastern Indian Ocean/west Pacific inhibits the westward extension of the north Pacific sub-tropical high. The location and shape of this high plays a dominant role in the monsoon variability over East Asia. The memory for delayed impact, three to four seasons later, could be carried by the surface boundary conditions of Eurasian snow cover via the northern channel or the equatorial SSTs near the Indonesian Through Flow via the southern channel.  相似文献   

5.
Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high(SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upperlevel SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel's interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China.  相似文献   

6.
Teleconnections:Summer Monsoon over Korea and India   总被引:6,自引:1,他引:5  
This study investigates the relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India,by using correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition(SVD).Results reveal that summer monsoon rainfall over Korea is negatively(significant at the 99% level) correlated with the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India.In addition,coupled spatial modes between the rainfall over Korea and India have been identified by the SVD analysis.The squared covariance fraction explained by the first mode is 70% and the correlation coefficient between the time coefficients of the two fields is significant at the 99% level,indicating that the coupled mode reflects a large part of the interaction between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India.The first mode clearly demonstrates the existence of a significant negative correlation between the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India and the rainfall over Korea.Possible mechanisms of this correlation are investigated by analyzing the variation of upper-level atmospheric circulation associated with the Tibetan high using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data.  相似文献   

7.
Summary The relationship of summer monsoon over India with the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode has been investigated applying simple statistical techniques. While a long time series of 132 years based on 1871–2002 for both summer monsoon rainfall as well as dipole mode index has been used in this study, the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data (1948–2002) are used to examine the circulation features associated with the extreme dipole and monsoon phases. These flow patterns bring out the dynamics of the dipole – monsoon relationship. Lead/lag correlations between the dipole mode index and the Indian monsoon rainfall are computed. Results reveal that numerically the relationship is stronger following the monsoon. The lower troposphere flow patterns at 850 hPa associated with the extreme phases of the dipole and monsoon are consistent with the correlation analysis. Further a strong (weak) summer monsoon favours the development of the negative (positive) dipole event in autumn. The sliding correlations between Indian monsoon rainfall and the dipole mode index suggest that the impact of monsoon over dipole is weakening after 1960s. This weakening relationship has been evidenced by the composites of sea-surface temperature anomalies and circulation patterns. All the above analysis suggests that the summer monsoon has more influence on the dipole mode than vice-a-versa.  相似文献   

8.
冬季风异常年份的环流特征及其与华南前汛期降水的关系   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
本文分析了1963—1982年资料,研究了冬季风异常年份的环流特征及其与华南初夏降水的关系。结果表明:冬季风强年,500百帕西太平洋副高偏弱,亚洲西风环流弱,东亚槽南伸,200百帕115°E西风急流强而偏北。冬季风弱年的环流特征与此相反。强冬季风年后期环流演变特点,中高纬度环流逐渐向夏季型过渡,而副热带环流则变化强烈。弱冬季风年后期中高纬度环流在2月下旬至3月上旬有一个反复的过程,副热带环流则是逐步增强北上的。强冬季风年初夏500百帕西太平洋副高较正常年偏强,位置偏北,西脊点偏东,100百帕南亚高压偏西,华南及珠江三角洲前汛期降水偏少。弱冬季风年初夏环流特点与此相反,华南及珠江三角洲前汛期降水偏多。   相似文献   

9.
Summary In this paper, interseasonal characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon in the years of 1987 and 1988 are studied as 1987 is characterized by a large deficiency of monsoon rainfall (drought) and that of 1988 by a large excess monsoon rainfall (flood) over India. In order to compare the similarities and differences seen in the large scale dynamics and energetics of the Asian summer monsoon during the years of extreme monsoon activity, uninitialized analyses (12 Z) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. are utilized in this study for the summer monsoon seasons of 1987 and 1988.It is found that the excess rainfall season (1988) is characterized by much stronger tropical easterly jet (TEJ) associated with the upper tropospheric easterlies and the East African low level jet (Somali Jet) associated with lower tropospheric westerlies. Such a feature mainly determines the strength of the reverse Hadley circulation which normally covers the South Asian continent during the northern summer. Further, the energetics of the TEJ show that the monsoon of 1988 has comparatively stronger zones of kinetic energy flux divergence (convergence) at its entrance (exit) regions. These zones of kinetic energy flux divergence are largely maintained by the adiabatic processes over the strong kinetic energy flux divergence zones over the Bay of Bengal and east central Arabian Sea as compared to that of 1987. Apart from this, both the zonal and meridional components of the ageostrophic flows are found to be stronger during 1988 monsoon season. Analysis of the vertically integrated thermodynamical features of the monsoon indicate that the monsoon of 1988 was characterized by an excess import of heat and moisture into the monsoon atmosphere as compared to that of 1987. Further, from the quantitative estimation of certain significant heat and moisture budget parameters during the contrasting monsoon seasons of 1987 and 1988, it becomes evident that considerable differences exist in the quantities of adiabatic production of heat energy, diabatic heating and the moisture source/sink.With 13 Figures  相似文献   

10.
青藏高原积雪与亚洲季风环流年代际变化的关系   总被引:12,自引:1,他引:12  
利用高原测站的月平均雪深资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了20世纪70年代末以来,青藏高原积雪的显著增多与亚洲季风环流转变的联系。研究表明,高原南侧冬春季西风的增强及西风扰动的活跃是造成青藏高原冬春积雪显著增多的主要原因,高原积雪的增多与亚洲夏季风的减弱均是亚洲季风环流转变的结果;20世纪70年代末以来,夏季华东降水的增多、华南降水的减少及华北的干旱化与青藏高原冬春积雪增多及东亚夏季风的减弱是基本同步的,高原冬春积雪与华东夏季降水的正相关、与华北及华南夏季降水的负相关主要是建立在年代际时间尺度上,因此,高原积雪与我国夏季降水关系的研究应以亚洲季风环流的年代际变化为背景。  相似文献   

11.
Summary In this study, the authors analyse the observational features of the onset of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in 1998 shown in reanalysis data and use a numerical model to understand the mechanisms responsible for these features.The onset of SCS summer monsoon in 1998 occurred around 21 May. Prior to this period, monsoon depression activity was strong over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and warm temperature anomalies appeared at the mid-upper troposphere over the northern BOB. In the meantime, warm horizontal thermal advection occurred over the northern Indo-China peninsula and South China. This warm advection seemed to play an important role in the winter-to-summer transition of the patterns of mean meridional temperature gradient in the 500–200-mb layer over South Asia.The PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) is used to understand the physical link between the latent heating associated with the monsoon depression over BOB and the establishment of SCS monsoon. Full-physics simulations, for a 6-day period coinciding with the onset of the observed monsoon, reproduce realistically the evolution of the monsoon depression and monsoon onset process. It is found that the condensational heating over BOB is important for the formation of large-scale circulation pattern that favors the establishment of SCS monsoon. In an experiment without latent heating, the winter-to-summer reversal of meridional temperature gradient over South Asia was delayed and the onset of SCS summer monsoon did not occur during the simulation period.  相似文献   

12.
This study aims at (1) exploring dominant atmospheric dynamical processes which are responsible for climate model-simulated land-use impacts on Asian monsoon; and (2) assessing uncertainty in such model simulations due to their skills in simulating detailed monsoon circulations in the region. Firstly, results from a series of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) global model simulations of land-use vegetation changes (LUC) in China are analysed. The model showed consistent signals of changes in atmospheric low-level vertical profile and regional circulations responding to LUC. In northern winter, the model-simulated rainfall reduction and surface cooling are associated with an enhanced southward penetration of dry and cold air mass, which impedes warm and humid air reaching the region for generating cold-front rainfall. In its summer, an enhanced cyclonic circulation responding to LUC further blocks the northeast penetration of southwestly summer monsoon flow into the region and results in rainfall decreases and a surface warming. Secondly, we have explored uncertainties in the proposed mechanism operating in the global model. By comparing its results with a set of high-resolution regional model simulations using the same vegetation datasets, it reveals similar changes in winter rainfall but opposite features in summer rainfall responses. In the global model, there is a cyclonic low-level circulation pattern over the South China Sea and adjacent region, an unsatisfactory feature commonly seen in other global climate models. With the reduction in surface roughness following LUC, such a deficiency becomes more prominent which further results in a weakened south/southwestly summer monsoon flow and rainfall reduction. In contrast, in the regional model, its southwestly summer monsoon flow is further enhanced due to the same process as reduced surface roughness. The enhanced monsoon flow further pushes the East Asian monsoon rainfall belt more northward and increases summer rainfall in the Yangtze River region. This study highlights the need for better monsoon simulations in climate models to produce reliable climate change projections in the region.  相似文献   

13.
根据 El Nino和 La Nina发生以后冬季赤道东太平洋海温距平的月际差定义了 El Nino和 La Nina冬季增强型和冬季减弱型 ,讨论了 El Nino和 La Nina冬季增强型和减弱型冬、春、夏季大气环流、东亚季风及我国夏季降水和旱涝分布的特征 .我国夏季降水和旱涝有明显差异的四种不同分布型可能与冬季所处 ENSO循环的不同阶段以及大气环流和东亚季风对它的不同响应有关 .提出了从 El Nino和 La Nina冬季不同型→大气环流和东亚季风→我国夏季降水和旱涝分布型的物理统计概念模型 .  相似文献   

14.
冬季赤道西太平洋环流状况与后期亚洲季风   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
武炳义  黄荣辉 《大气科学》2001,25(5):609-626
基于月平均NCEP再分析资料(1958~1997年)以及中国336个台站月降水总量(195l~1994年),通过合成、相关以及统计显著性检验方法,研究了赤道西太平洋区域冬季环流状况与后期春夏季亚洲(东亚和南亚)季风环流变化的关系.研究结果表明,冬季赤道西太平洋环流状况对后期南亚季风和东亚季风以及我国夏季降水均有显著的滞后影响.冬季赤道西太平洋海域海平面气压偏高(低),对应反气旋(气旋)性环流异常,致使后期东亚和南亚夏季风均偏弱(强)以及我国长江流域夏季降水偏多(少),揭示了实施这种滞后影响的一般特征.  相似文献   

15.
Using daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and observation rainfall data in China for the 1971- 2000 period, a subtropical summer monsoon index has been defined by meridional moisture transport of the total atmosphere column. Results show that the subtropical summer monsoon index defined by the difference of meridional moisture transport between South China and North China can be used to describe the intensity of the subtropical summer monsoon. High (low) index is corresponding to strong (weak) subtropical summer monsoon. And the new index is well related to the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. In addition, the convergence of moisture transport from the west Pacific via the South China Sea and that from the North China may be responsible for the anomalously excessive summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.  相似文献   

16.
Simulation of Indian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall using RegCM3   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:5  
Summary The Regional Climate Model RegCM3 has been used to examine its suitability in simulating the Indian summer monsoon circulation features and associated rainfall. The model is integrated at 55 km horizontal resolution over a South Asia domain for the period April–September of the years 1993 to 1996. The characteristics of wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa, temperature at 500 hPa, surface pressure and rainfall simulated by the model over the Indian region are examined for two convective schemes (a Kuo-type and a mass flux scheme). The monsoon circulation features simulated by RegCM3 are compared with those of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the simulated rainfall is validated against observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Validation of the wind and temperature fields shows that the use of the Grell convection scheme yields results close to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Similarly, the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) simulated by the model with the Grell convection scheme is close to the corresponding observed values. In order to test the model response to land surface changes such as the Tibetan snow depth, a sensitivity study has also been conducted. For such sensitivity experiment, NIMBUS-7 SMMR snow depth data in spring are used as initial conditions in the RegCM3. Preliminary results indicate that RegCM3 is very much sensitive to Tibetan snow. The model simulated Indian summer monsoon circulation becomes weaker and the associated rainfall is reduced by about 30% with the introduction of 10 cm of snow over the Tibetan region in the month of April.  相似文献   

17.
东亚海陆热力差指数及其与环流和降水的年际变化关系   总被引:32,自引:3,他引:32  
利用 196 1~ 1999年海温和地温月平均资料 ,定义了一个海陆热力差指数 ,来表示东亚季风环流的纬向和经向海陆热力差异的变化强度 ,研究了夏季指数与东亚夏季风环流场和中国东部夏季降水的年际变化关系。结果表明 :(1)海陆热力差指数可用来表示东亚夏季风的强弱变化。强指数年东亚季风区低空西南夏季风气流和高层的东风气流明显偏强 ,表明这一年夏季风偏强 ,弱指数年反之。 (2 )海陆热力差指数能较好地反映东部季风区夏季降水的异常状况。强指数年 ,雨带偏北 ,江淮流域和长江中下游明显干旱 ,华南、华北降水偏多 ,弱指数年反之。这一降水异常特征可以从强弱海陆热力差指数年的环流场得到解释。 (3)海陆热力差指数所反映的东亚夏季风具有明显的准 2a和 3~ 6a周期的年际振荡 ,但其振幅和周期具有显著的年代际异常  相似文献   

18.
Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has two dominant periodicities, one on the quasi-biennial (2–3 year) time scale corresponding to tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) and the other on low frequency (3–7 year) corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the present study, the spatial and temporal patterns of various atmospheric and oceanic parameters associated with the Indian summer monsoon on the above two periodicities were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets for the period 1950–2005. Influences of Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs on the monsoon season rainfall are different for both of the time scales. Seasonal evolution and movement of SST and Walker circulation are also different. SST and velocity potential anomalies are southeast propagating on the TBO scale, while they are stationary on the ENSO scale. Latent heat flux and relative humidity anomalies over the Indian Ocean and local Hadley circulation between the Indian monsoon region and adjacent oceans have interannual variability only on the TBO time scale. Local processes over the Indian Ocean determine the Indian Ocean SST in biennial periodicity, while the effect of equatorial east Pacific SST is significant in the ENSO periodicity. TBO scale variability is dependent on the local factors of the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon, while the ENSO scale processes are remotely controlled by the Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

19.
华南初夏干旱及多雨年份的季风环流特征   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文根据1961—1980年我国华南5月降水量资料,划分5月的旱或涝。并挑选1963、1966(干旱)1973、1975(涝)四年作为典型年,从天气气候角度分析了初夏季风环流结构与华南5月旱涝关系。华南地区旱5月和涝5月在夏季风来临早迟、持续期长短、强度强弱等方面都有明显差异。华南5月出现旱或涝,不仅在同期全球环流,而且在前期环流,特别是北半球中高纬度几个活动中心也有明显的差异。1月以阿留申低压及冰岛低压,4月以太平洋高压及大西洋高压差别比较明显。华南5月降水量的多少与前期3月低纬气压指标值有较好关系,涝   相似文献   

20.
    
The wavelet analysis is performed of the mid- and low-latitude circulation index at 850 hPa over East Asia, the East Asian monsoon index and the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1998 South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) from May to August. Analysis shows that distinct 30–60 day low-frequency oscillation (LFO) exists in all of the above elements during the exper-iment period. Analysis of low-frequency wind field at 850 hPa from May to August with 5 days interval is performed in this paper. Analysis results reveal that: (1) A low-frequency monsoon circulation system over East Asia, characterized by distinct 30–60 day low-frequency oscillation, exists over 100°-150°E of East Asian area from the middle and eastern parts of China continent and the South China Sea to the western Pacific in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The activity of East Asian monsoon is mainly af-fected by the low-frequency systems in it; (2) All of the tropical monsoon onset over the South China Sea in the fifth pentad of May, the beginning of the Meiyu period and heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in mid-June and the heavy rainfall after mid-July are related to the activity of low-frequency cyclone belt over the region, whereas the torrential rainfall over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in August is associated with the westward propagation of low-frequency anticyclone into the mainland; (3) There are two sources of low-frequency oscillation system over East Asia during SCSMEX. i.e. the equatorial South China Sea (SCS) and mid-high latitudes of the middle Pacific in the Northern Hemisphere. The low-frequency system over SCS propagates northward while that in mid-high latitudes mainly propagates from northeast to southwest. Both of the heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in June and July are associated with the northward propagation of the above-mentioned SCS low-frequency systems from the tropical region and the southwestward propagation from mid-high latitudes respectively and their convergence in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; (4) There are two activities of low-frequency cyclone and anticyclone belt each in the East Asian monsoon system during May to August. However the activity of these low-frequency circulation systems is not clearly relevant to the low-frequency circulation system in the Indian monsoon system. This means that the low-frequency circulation systems in Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon are independent of each other. The concept previously put forward by Chinese scholars that the East Asian monsoon circulation sys-tem (EAMCS) is relatively independent monsoon circulation system is testified once more in the summer 1998. This work was supported by the key project A of the State Ministry of Science and Technology “South China Sea Monsoon Experiment” and the fruit of it.  相似文献   

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