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1.
M.K. Thomas 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):97-102
The laser radar (lidar) is capable of detecting weak concentrations of particulate in the lower atmosphere at ranges up to several kilometres. Through this technique, models of thermal convection and theories of particulate diffusion may be studied by observing the spatial and temporal changes in particulate concentration. A pulsed ruby lidar has been assembled at this University, with scanning optics located at an elevated position overlooking the city. Criteria have been evolved here for deriving profiles of extinction coefficient, and particulate number and mass concentration from the lidar signatures. Sample profiles of particulate concentrations are given for comparison with the design prediction of lidar sensitivity. 相似文献
2.
Indigenous Australians’ knowledge of weather and climate 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands
of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still
rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living ‘on country’, many of these communities
have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes
in them. Some of this knowledge is recorded in their oral history passed down through generations, documented in seasonal
weather calendars in local languages and, to a limited degree, transcribed and translated into English. This knowledge is
still highly valued by these communities today, as it is used to direct hunting, fishing and planting as well as to inform
many seasonally dependant cultural events. In recent years, local observations have been recognised by non-Indigenous scientists
as a vital source of environmental data where few historic records exist. Similar to the way that phenological observations
in the UK and US provide baseline information on past climates, this paper suggests that Indigenous observations of seasonal
change have the potential to fill gaps in climate data for tropical northern Australia, and could also serve to inform culturally
appropriate adaptation strategies. One method of recording recent direct and indirect climate and weather observations for
the Torres Strait Islands is documented in this paper to demonstrate the currency of local observations of climate and its
variability. The paper concludes that a comprehensive, participatory programme to record Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
knowledge of past climate patterns, and recent observations of change, would be timely and valuable for the communities themselves,
as well as contributing to a greater understanding of regional climate change that would be useful for the wider Australian
population. 相似文献
3.
4.
A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. These weather disasters (WDs) caused $66.2 billion in losses, 76% of the nation's insured losses in this period. Disasters were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rockies. The incidence of WDs was high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and peaked in the 1980s. Losses due to WDs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, and with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) had poor agreement, and agreed only when they peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of WDs showed marked north-south differences with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, whereas southern regions had a relatively flat trend until achieving a peak in the 1980s. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused disasters differed regionally, with the distributions in the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S. each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm-produced disasters were regionally more uniform. The national 5-year WD frequencies correlated moderately well with annual mean temperatures which explained 40% of the variability found in WDs during 1950–89. Weather disasters peaked in the relatively warm-dry 1950s and again in the warm-wet 1980s, and were least in the cool-wet 1960s and 1970s. The distribution of WDs during 1950–89 appears positively related to the temporal fluctuations in cyclonic activity. 相似文献
5.
The possible change in the characteristics of weather in the future should be considered as important as the mean climate change because the increasing risk of extremes is related to the variability on daily time scales. The weather characteristics can be represented by the climatological mean interdiurnal (day-to-day) variability (MIDV). This paper first assessed the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled climate models’ capability to represent MIDV for the surface maximum and minimum temperature, surface wind speed and precipitation under the present climate condition. Based on the assessment, we selected three best models for projecting future change. We found that the future changes in MIDV are characterized by: (a) a marked reduction in surface maximum and minimum temperature over high latitudes during the cold season; (b) a stronger reduction in the surface minimum temperature than in the maximum temperature; (c) a reduction in surface wind speed over large parts of lands in Northern Hemisphere (NH) during NH spring; (d) a noticeable increase in precipitation in NH mid-high latitudes in NH spring and winter, and in particular over East Asia throughout most of the year. 相似文献
6.
A. V. Frolov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(9):545-553
The paper considers fundamental limitations that impede the growth of performance of supercomputers based on silicon transistors and do not allow satisfying the needs of developing numerical weather and climate prediction models. A brief review of studies dealing with the development of quantum computing algorithms and with the creation of real quantum computers is provided. The shift from pure science to engineering solutions is observed. The leaders of the computer industry set the goal of creating a general-purpose quantum computer in the next few years. It is proved that the applicability of quantum computations and quantum computers for solving the problems of numerical weather and climate prediction should be preliminarily studied and assessed. 相似文献
7.
This paper discusses the scale at which the weather is experienced and modified by human activities in urban environment. The climates of built-up areas differ from their non-urban counterparts in many aspect: wind-flows, radiation, humidity, precipitation and air quality all change in the presence of human settlement, transforming each city into a singularity within its regional weather system. Yet this pervasive category of anthropogenic climate change has always tended to be hidden and difficult to discern. The paper first describes the sequence of discovery of the urban heat island since the early nineteenth century, and the emergence and consolidation of a scientific field devoted to the climatology of cities. This is followed by a discussion of various attempts to apply knowledge of climatic factors to the design and management of settlement. We find that real-world application of urban climatology has met with limited success. However, the conclusion suggests that global climate change gives a new visibility and practical relevance to urban-scale climate science. 相似文献
8.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):233-248
Abstract Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development. 相似文献
9.
Corey Lang 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):291-303
Learning about the causes and consequences of climate change can be an important avenue for supporting mitigation policy and efficient adaptation. This paper uses internet search activity data, a distinctly revealed preference approach, to examine if local weather fluctuations cause people to seek information about climate change. The results suggest that weather fluctuations do have an effect on climate change related search behavior, however not always in ways that are consistent with the projected impacts of climate change. While search activity increases with extreme heat in summer and extended periods of no rainfall and declines in extreme cold in winter, search activity also increases with colder winter and spring average temperatures. Some of the surprising results are magnified when heterogeneity by political ideology and educational attainment in responsiveness is modeled, which could suggest that different people have different perceptions about what types of weather define climate change or that climate science deniers seek information through Google. However, the results also indicate that for all groups in the political and educational spectrum, there exist weather events consistent with the predicted impacts of climate change that elicit increased information seeking. 相似文献
10.
I. A. Gotyur Yu. V. Kuleshov A. B. Makov S. S. Suvorov N. V. Shirshov G. G. Shchukin 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2014,39(6):387-394
A complex system of the operational acquisition, processing, and presentation of meteorological data is developed according to the requirements to cosmodrome weather support. The proposed system allows for the high efficiency of space rocket launches by making prompt decisions based on the information provided by the weather support system. 相似文献
11.
12.
Sapna Sharma John J. Magnuson Gricelda Mendoza Stephen R. Carpenter 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):857-870
We investigate the temporal patterns in inter-annual variability in ice breakup dates for Lakes Mendota and Monona, Wisconsin, between 1905 and 2004. We analyze the contributions of long-term trends attributed to climate change, local weather, indices of sunspots, and large-scale climatic drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niňo Southern Ocean Index (ENSO) on time series of lake-ice breakup. The relative importance of the aforementioned explanatory variables was assessed using linear regression and variation partitioning models accounting for cyclic temporal dynamics as represented by Moran Eigenvector Maps (MEM). Model results explain an average of 58 % of the variation in ice breakup dates. A combination of the long-term linear trends, rain and snowfall in the month prior to breakup, air temperature in the winter prior to breakup, cyclic dynamics associated with sunspot numbers, ENSO, and for Lake Mendota, NAO, all significantly influence the timing of ice breakup. Significant cycle lengths were 3.5, 9, 11, and 50 years. Despite their proximity, Lakes Mendota and Monona exhibit differences in how and which explanatory variables were incorporated into the models. Our results indicate that lake ice dynamics are complex in both lakes and multiple interacting processes explain the residuals around the linear warming trends that characterize lake ice records. 相似文献
13.
Since their implementation, road weather information systems have mostly relied on point measurements from outstations to initiate and verify daily forecasts. Initially, spatial extrapolation was achieved by thermal mapping, but this is gradually being replaced by route-based forecasting techniques. Both techniques are similar in the sense that they use a point measurement, often taken from an outstation, to provide a spatial forecast of road surface temperatures around the road network at varying resolutions. A substantial research effort has been undertaken to understand and model the complex environmental conditions and mechanisms responsible for the variation in road surface temperatures around the road network. In particular, the interaction of varying geographical parameters around the road network (e.g. altitude, land use, road construction, topography, etc.) has been used to develop local climatological models and route-based forecasting products. By considering the needs of winter maintenance engineers, this paper reviews the current state of the art and takes a critical look at the embedding of forecast products into decision support systems. This is achieved by considering a case study of how road surface temperature and condition vary across the width of a road profile, instead of just lengthways along a road. It is shown that temperature and condition both vary significantly across the profile, which immediately raises questions about the validity of current surveying and modelling practices. This has implications for both the resolution of route-based forecasting products as well as user confidence in automated decision support systems. 相似文献
14.
The risk and predictability of weather and climate anomalies in Russian regions associated with differen types of El Niño are estimated using long-term data (1891-2015) on surface air temperature, precipitation, and indices of drought and excessive moisture. The probability of anomalies of these parameters in spring and summer months is estimated for different phase transitions of El Niño events. 相似文献
15.
Reporting the links (or lack of them) between human-induced climate change and individual extreme weather events poses a series of challenges for journalists. In recent years, their task has become more complicated by the increase in the number of extreme event attribution (EEA) studies which assess how climate change is affecting the intensity or likelihood of specific weather events. Such studies are complex, contain uncertainties, and can be difficult to explain to a lay audience. Previous scholarship has largely focused on media coverage of extreme events in developed countries, and on the volume of coverage of the links to climate change, without examining references to EEA studies. To help fill this gap, we take India as our case study, and the mainstream media coverage there of the Chennai rainfall event and the heat wave in Andhra Pradesh in 2015. Both events were subject to attribution studies. Amongst our findings are that journalists most commonly used generic phrases to describe the link between such events and climate change; politicians and NGOs often ‘blamed’ climate change without reference to the science; and relevant EEA studies were seldom quoted. Based on our findings, we make some preliminary recommendations for training journalists in India and elsewhere to support accurate reporting of extreme events and their possible linkages to climate change. 相似文献
16.
Abstract A simple gravity wave drag parametriiation over mountainous terrain is tested for its ability to reduce the systematic errors of medium‐range weather forecasts. Following Boer et al. (1984), this parametrization is a function of the low‐level wind speed and stability, the local Froude number, and the variance of the subgrid‐scale orographie features. A comparison study of ten 7‐day forecasts obtained with envelope orography, wave drag or standard orography, shows that wave drag is as effective as envelope orography in reducing the systematic errors. A further comparison where the combined effects of the wave drag and that of a complementary enhanced orography (that is one that includes only the subgrid‐scale elements not treated separately by wave drag) are taken into account shows this latter approach to be the most promising in reducing orographically‐related systematic errors. 相似文献
17.
Thomas Nehrkorn Janusz Eluszkiewicz Steven C. Wofsy John C. Lin Christoph Gerbig Marcos Longo Saulo Freitas 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2010,107(1-2):51-64
This paper describes the coupling between a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model, the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. The primary motivation for developing this coupled model has been to reduce transport errors in continental-scale top–down estimates of terrestrial greenhouse gas fluxes. Examples of the model’s application are shown here for backward trajectory computations originating at CO2 measurement sites in North America. Owing to its unique features, including meteorological realism and large support base, good mass conservation properties, and a realistic treatment of convection within STILT, the WRF–STILT model offers an attractive tool for a wide range of applications, including inverse flux estimates, flight planning, satellite validation, emergency response and source attribution, air quality, and planetary exploration. 相似文献
18.
The ability of Māori to understand, record and forecast weather and climate has been an important factor in successfully responding
to past weather and climatic change in New Zealand. Through interacting with local environments over the centuries Māori have
developed a wealth of environmental knowledge, with the lessons learnt having been incorporated into traditional and modern
practices of agriculture, fishing, medicine, education and conservation. In partnership with the tribal group Te Whānau-ā-Apanui,
NIWA’s Māori Research and Development Unit (Te Kuwaha o Taihoro Nukurangi) have initiated a pilot project to identify and
document Māori environmental knowledge (MEK) of weather and climate in New Zealand. Using a Kaupapa Māori based research approach
and semi-directive interviewing, an intimate understanding of local weather and climate was demonstrated by elders from Te
Whānau-ā-Apanui. This knowledge includes the use of a vast indigenous nomenclature for local weather and climate phenomenon,
the oral recording of weather and climate based events and trends, and the identification of environmental indicators to forecast
weather and climate. Learning from this knowledge provides an opportunity to understand what has helped Māori adapt to weather
and climate variability in the past. It also provides clues on how to enhance present day Māori and western scientific understanding
of local weather and climate in New Zealand.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
19.
Tatyana Deryugina 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):397-416
Global warming has become a controversial public policy issue in spite of broad scientific consensus that it is real and that human activity is a contributing factor. It is likely that public consensus is also needed to support policies that might counteract it. It is therefore important to understand how people form and update their beliefs about climate change. Using unique survey data on beliefs about the occurrence of the effects of global warming, I estimate how local temperature fluctuations influence what individuals believe about these effects. I find that some features of the updating process are consistent with rational updating. I also test explicitly for the presence of several heuristics known to affect belief formation and find strong evidence for representativeness, some evidence for availability, and no evidence for spreading activation. I find that very short-run temperature fluctuations (1 day–2 weeks) have no effect on beliefs about the occurrence of global warming, but that longer-run fluctuations (1 month–1 year) are significant predictors of beliefs. Only respondents with a conservative political ideology are affected by temperature abnormalities. 相似文献
20.
Synoptic weather typing and regression-based downscaling approaches have become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems, particularly those involving extreme impacts. One of the reasons for the popularity of these approaches is their ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables into a coherent index, facilitating the projection of changes in frequency and intensity of future daily extreme weather events and/or their impacts. This paper illustrated the capability of the synoptic weather typing and regression methods to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events and environmental problems for south–central Canada, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-streamflow events, air pollution, and human health. These statistical approaches are helpful in analyzing extreme events and projecting their impacts into the future through three major steps or analysis procedures: (1) historical simulation modeling to identify extreme weather events or their impacts, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts under a changing climate. To realize these steps, it is first necessary to conceptualize the modeling of the meteorology, hydrology and impacts model variables of significance and to apply a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques. Because the climate/weather validation process is critical, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of these three steps. With carefully chosen physically consistent and relevant variables, the results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, show a very good agreement in all applications and extremes tested to date. Overall, the modeled results from climate change studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts are generally projected to significantly increase late this century over south–central Canada under a changing climate. The implications of these increases need be taken into consideration and integrated into policies and planning for adaptation strategies, including measures to incorporate climate change into engineering infrastructure design standards and disaster risk reduction measures. This paper briefly summarized these climate change research projects, focusing on the modeling methodologies and results, and attempted to use plain language to make the results more accessible and interesting to the broader informed audience. These research projects have been used to support decision-makers in south–central Canada when dealing with future extreme weather events under climate change. 相似文献