共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 187 毫秒
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基于集合Kalman滤波及SCE-UA(shuffled complex evolution)算法发展了能够直接同化微波亮温的土壤湿度同化方案. 该方案以陆面过程模式CLM 3.0中的土壤水模型作为预报算子, 以辐射传输模型作为观测算子. 整个同化过程分为参数优化和土壤湿度同化两个阶段, 利用SCE-UA算法优化辐射传输模型中难以确定的植被光学厚度参数和地表粗糙度参数, 并利用优化参数作为观测算子的模型参数进行同化. 通过人工理想试验表明该同化方案可以明显改善表层土壤湿度的模拟精度, 并且对深层土壤湿度的模拟也有一定程度的改善; 利用AMSR-E亮温(10.65 GHz垂直极化)所进行的实际同化试验表明顶层(0~10 cm)土壤湿度同化结果与观测的均方根误差(RMSE)由模拟的0.05052减小到0.03355, 相对减小了33.6%, 而较深层(10~50 cm)平均减小了20.9%. 这些同化试验显示该同化方案的合理性. 相似文献
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利用差异演化（Differential Evolution）非线性全局优化算法,设计了一种反演地壳速度模型和进行地震定位的方法,并给出了反演结果的具体分析.利用有限差分算法计算速度模型的走时场,可以节省大量的计算量,加快计算过程.反演得到的地壳速度模型和地震的震源参数可以直接用于地震层析成像研究,还可以利用地震层析成像得到的三维速度结构对地震重新定位,从而得到较为精确的震源参数.地壳速度模型的反演方法也可以用于三维速度结构的反演. 相似文献
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新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs对洪峰模拟影响较大,目前Cs的确定需依赖于大量的历史数据,因此Cs的确定成为无资料地区和资料匮乏区水文模型应用中亟需解决的棘手问题.本文基于参数的物理意义,通过自相似河网结构的假定,构建Cs与河网形态、流域下垫面特征的相关联系,提出基于河链蓄量方程的Cs估算方法,对半干旱、半湿润和湿润地区等不同水文气象分区的11个流域的Cs值进行推算并代入新安江模型中进行模拟,经比较发现,11个流域子流域Cs计算均值与新安江模型率定结果相近,说明该Cs计算方法是合理的.选取陈河、屯溪两个典型流域研究单元流域属性对Cs的影响,由结果可以看出Cs与流域面积、河链数、河宽呈正相关,与单元流域距离出口的远近呈负相关,这表明流域分块后各单元流域Cs值不一致,而新安江模型中采用相同Cs值对不同单元进行调节必然会造成汇流计算的误差.为进一步提高该方法在无资料地区的应用效果,将新安江模型汇流模块修改为每个单元使用对应的Cs计算值进行滞后演算,以陈河和屯溪流域为例采用新安江模型Cs率定值、Cs计算均值以及修改后新安江模型3种不同方案进行模拟比较,从模拟结果可以得出,修改后的模型具有明显优势,将模型参数与下垫面条件建立了联系,模型物理机制提高且参数的独立性增强,对于新安江模型在无资料地区的应用具有重要的指导意义. 相似文献
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在OpenSees中实现了一种最近研究的新型防屈曲支撑结构(BRBs)的弹塑性本构模型的隐式算法,并基于直接微分法(Direct Differentiation Method,简称DDM),推导实现其响应的参数敏感性分析算法。此模型能够很好地预测BRBs的实验结果。同时,根据敏感性计算结果能够分析BRB本构参数对结构响应的影响和相对重要性,分析结果可用于基于梯度计算的结构优化、结构可靠性和模型修正中。选取一个配置BRBs的4层钢框架进行实例研究,用DDM计算结果与有限差分法(Finite Difference Method,简称FDM)计算结果进行对比,以验证DDM敏感性分析算法的正确性、精度和效率,并分析了BRB模型参数对全局和局部响应的影响。此外,响应敏感性分析结果还用于有限元模型修正中,以验证BRB模型敏感性分析结果对于提高优化算法效率的作用。 相似文献
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洪涝灾害是世界主要自然灾害之一,优化洪水预报方案对防洪决策至关重要,然而传统水文模型存在参数多、调参受人为因素影响,泛化能力弱等问题。针对上述问题,本文提出基于改进的鲸鱼优化算法和长短期记忆网络构建自动优化参数的WOA-LSTM模型,通过优化神经网络结构进一步增强该模型的稳定性和精确度,并且建立不同预见期下的洪水预报模型来分析讨论神经网络结构与预报期之间的关系。以横锦水库流域1986—1997年洪水资料为例,其中以流域7个雨量站点的降雨以及横锦站水文资料为输入,不同预见期下洪水过程作为输出,以1986—1993年作为模型的率定期,1994—1997年作为模型的检验期,研究结果表明:(1)以峰现时差、确定性系数、径流深误差和洪峰流量误差作为评价指标,相比较于LSTM模型和新安江模型对检验期的模拟结果表明WOA-LSTM模型拥有更高的精度、预报结果更稳定;(2)结合置换特征值和SHAP法分析模型特征值重要性,增强了神经网络模型的可解释性;(3)通过改变神经网络结构在一定程度避免由于预见期增加和数据关联性下降而导致的模型预报精度下降的问题,最终实验表明该模型在预见期1~6 h下都可以满足横锦水库的洪水预报要求,可以为当地的防洪决策提供依据。 相似文献
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为弥补传统线性化大地电磁（MT）反演方法需计算高阶偏导矩阵,对细节信息反映能力弱的不足,达到提高大地电磁反演精度的目的,本文尝试引入优化领域的智能优化算法 差分进化算法（DE）实现大地电磁的全局优化反演．针对经典DE算法在进行全局寻优时存在收敛慢、易陷入局部最优等问题,从算子自适应及寻优策略集成方面对算法进行研究,提出改进差分进化（TDE）算法,并利用标准测试函数对其进行测试,结果证实了改进后的TDE算法具有寻优速度快、鲁棒性强、不易陷入局部最优的特点．并构建了基于TDE算法的大地电磁优化反演模型,通过理论模拟及实测数据对所构建模型进行验证,结果表明TDE算法可有效提高大地电磁的反演的精度,具较好的可推广性． 相似文献
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利用水平与竖向谱比（HVSR）方法反演场地速度结构是国际上迅速发展的研究领域.HVSR反演计算实质是一个土层场地模型空间搜索的全局优化问题,当模型搜索空间的复杂程度增大时,目前常用的搜索算法收敛速度慢,计算效率较低.本文实现了一种结合遗传和模拟退火方法优点的混合全局优化HVSR反演算法,通过理论模型和竖向台阵实测数据的检验,表明该算法能获得很好的反演效果,较好地解决了蒙特卡罗方法收敛速度慢,遗传算法收敛早熟和模拟退火算法搜索效率低的问题.本文在此基础上讨论了单台加速度S波记录用于场地速度结构HVSR反演的适用性,为基于单个地震台的地震观测记录反演浅层速度结构提供了一种高效且较为准确的反演方法. 相似文献
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Shuffled Complex Evolution model calibrating algorithm: enhancing its robustness and efficiency 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Shuffled Complex Evolution—University of Arizona (SCE‐UA) has been used extensively and proved to be a robust and efficient global optimization method for the calibration of conceptual models. In this paper, two enhancements to the SCE‐UA algorithm are proposed, one to improve its exploration and another to improve its exploitation of the search space. A strategically located initial population is used to improve the exploration capability and a modification to the downhill simplex search method enhances its exploitation capability. This enhanced version of SCE‐UA is tested, first on a suite of test functions and then on a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model using synthetically generated runoff values. It is observed that the strategically located initial population drastically reduces the number of failures and the modified simplex search also leads to a significant reduction in the number of function evaluations to reach the global optimum, when compared with the original SCE‐UA. Thus, the two enhancements significantly improve the robustness and efficiency of the SCE‐UA model calibrating algorithm. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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SWAT模型在斯里兰卡河流径流预测中的运用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文运用SWAT模型和新安江模型对斯里兰卡卡鲁河流域上游地区日径流进行了预测.卡鲁河是斯里兰卡的第二大河,由于流域的降雨量很大,上游地区河流沿峡谷流下,中下游平原地区河床平坦.卡鲁河流域的洪水变的很正常.应用SWAT模型来对卡鲁河的日径流量进行预测,并同应用新安江模型所得到的结果做对比.研究表明,新安江模型要比SWAT (分布式水文模型)模型在卡鲁河日径流量预测上稍微好一些.实际上,或许数据质量不高或不恰当是部分原因,因为SWAT的输出成果严格取决于其输入的数据质量.此外,在斯里兰卡,许多人的日常用水是靠井水.当把流域看作一个整体,通常都是一个很大的范围,那样的话就不可能详尽的记录所有各个小规模的水利用,例如:小灌溉、小规模的家畜管理和工业水利用.这些水利用累积起来或许就很可观.这些数据的缺失对分布式水文模型在水平衡的应用有着独特的影响.但是概念水文模型(如新安江模型)可以根据实际情况在校正中调节它的参数,因为这些参数并没有实质的物理含义.因此,在流域特征和模型输入数据有限或不完整的情况下,概念水文模型比分布式水文模型更具优势. 相似文献
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基于改进型SIMTOP参数化径流方案和新安江模型的三层土壤水量平衡计算方法,本文构建了一个输入数据和率定参数较少、同时具有地形指数尺度转换机制、较好描述二维水文过程的简单高效的大尺度水文模型TOPX,并将其与区域环境系统集成模式RIEMS紧密耦合,以增强区域气候模式对大尺度流域径流量的定量数值模拟能力．TOPX模型在酉水河流域和泾河流域的离线测试表明：该模型对小尺度流域的径流量模拟精度较高,能够较好地描述流域水文变化过程;同时,该模型在大尺度上具有较强的分布式模拟能力,能够捕捉陆面水文过程的主要特征和时空演变特点．TOPX与RIEMS的耦合模式在泾河流域进行了在线测试,借助TOPX模型中的地形指数降尺度转换和水文过程产汇流机制,耦合模式实现了利用区域气候模式模拟的气象资料来驱动水文模型进行大尺度流域日径流量的模拟．进一步分析还表明：区域气候模式RIEMS模拟的降水时空分布数据的精度是影响耦合模式对径流量模拟效果的关键因素． 相似文献
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Hydrological models at a monthly time‐scale are important tools for hydrological analysis, such as in impact assessment of climate change and regional water resources planning. Traditionally, monthly models adopt a conceptual, lumped‐parameter approach and cannot account for spatial variations of basin characteristics and climatic inputs. A large requirement for data often severely limits the utility of physically based, distributed‐parameter models. Based on the variable‐source‐area concept, we considered basin topography and rainfall to be two major factors whose spatial variations play a dominant role in runoff generation and developed a monthly model that is able to account for their influences in the spatial and temporal dynamics of water balance. As a hybrid of the Xinanjiang model and TOPMODEL, the new model is constructed by innovatively making use of the highly acclaimed simulation techniques in the two existing models. A major contribution of this model development study is to adopt the technique of implicit representation of soil moisture characteristics in the Xinanjiang model and use the TOPMODEL concept to integrate terrain variations into runoff simulation. Specifically, the TOPMODEL topographic index ln(a/tanβ) is converted into an index of relative difficulty in runoff generation (IRDG) and then the cumulative frequency distribution of IRDG is used to substitute the parabolic curve, which represents the spatial variation of soil storage capacity in the Xinanjiang model. Digital elevation model data play a key role in the modelling procedures on a geographical information system platform, including basin segmentation, estimation of rainfall for each sub‐basin and computation of terrain characteristics. Other monthly data for model calibration and validation are rainfall, pan evaporation and runoff. The new model has only three parameters to be estimated, i.e. watershed‐average field capacity WM, pan coefficient η and runoff generation coefficient α. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that runoff is least sensitive to WM and, therefore, it can be determined by a prior estimation based on the climate and soil properties of the study basin. The other two parameters can be determined using optimization methods. Model testing was carried out in a number of nested sub‐basins of two watersheds (Yuanjiang River and Dongjiang River) in the humid region in central and southern China. Simulation results show that the model is capable of describing spatial and temporal variations of water balance components, including soil moisture content, evapotranspiration and runoff, over the watershed. With a minimal requirement for input data and parameterization, this terrain‐based distributed model is a valuable contribution to the ever‐advancing technology of hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Coupling the Xinanjiang model to a kinematic flow model based on digital drainage networks for flood forecasting 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Xinanjiang model, which is a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model and has been successfully and widely applied in humid and semi‐humid regions in China, is coupled by the physically based kinematic wave method based on a digital drainage network. The kinematic wave Xinanjiang model (KWXAJ) uses topography and land use data to simulate runoff and overland flow routing. For the modelling, the catchment is subdivided into numerous hillslopes and consists of a raster grid of flow vectors that define the water flow directions. The Xinanjiang model simulates the runoff yield in each grid cell, and the kinematic wave approach is then applied to a ranked raster network. The grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model was applied to simulate basin‐scale water discharge from an 805‐km2 catchment of the Huaihe River, China. Rainfall and discharge records were available for the years 1984, 1985, 1987, 1998 and 1999. Eight flood events were used to calibrate the model's parameters and three other flood events were used to validate the grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model. A Manning's roughness via a linear flood depth relationship was suggested in this paper for improving flood forecasting. The calibration and validation results show that this model works well. A sensitivity analysis was further performed to evaluate the variation of topography (hillslopes) and land use parameters on catchment discharge. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Hydrologic models often require correct estimates of surface macro‐depressional storage to accurately simulate rainfall–runoff processes. Traditionally, depression storage is determined through model calibration or lumped with soil storage components or on an ad hoc basis. This paper investigates a holistic approach for estimating surface depressional storage capacity (DSC) in watersheds using digital elevation models (DEMs). The methodology includes implementing a lumped DSC model to extract geometric properties of storage elements from DEMs of varying grid resolutions and employing a consistency zone criterion to quantify the representative DSC of an isolated watershed. DSC obtained using the consistency zone approach is compared to DSC estimated by “brute force” (BF) optimization method. The BF procedure estimates optimal DSC by calibrating DRAINMOD, a quasi‐process based hydrologic model, with observed streamflow under different climatic conditions. Both methods are applied to determine the DSC for relatively low‐gradient coastal plain watersheds on forested landscape with slopes less than 3%. Results show robustness of the consistency zone approach for estimating depression storage. To test the adequacy of the calculated DSC values obtained, both methods are applied in DRAINMOD to predict the daily watershed flow rates. Comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals a marginal difference in performance between BF optimization and consistency zone estimated DSCs during wet periods, but the latter performed relatively better in dry periods. DSC is found to be dependent on seasonal antecedent moisture conditions on surface topography. The new methodology is beneficial in situations where data on depressional storage is unavailable for calibrating models requiring this input parameter. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Impact of model development,calibration and validation decisions on hydrological simulations in West Lake Erie Basin 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Prasad Daggupati Haw Yen Michael J. White Raghavan Srinivasan Jeffrey G. Arnold Conor S. Keitzer Scott P. Sowa 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5307-5320
Watershed simulation models are used extensively to investigate hydrologic processes, landuse and climate change impacts, pollutant load assessments and best management practices (BMPs). Developing, calibrating and validating these models require a number of critical decisions that will influence the ability of the model to represent real world conditions. Understanding how these decisions influence model performance is crucial, especially when making science‐based policy decisions. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in West Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) to examine the influence of several of these decisions on hydrological processes and streamflow simulations. Specifically, this study addressed the following objectives (1) demonstrate the importance of considering intra‐watershed processes during model development, (2) compare and evaluated spatial calibration versus calibration at outlet and (3) evaluate parameter transfers across temporal and spatial scales. A coarser resolution (HUC‐12) model and a finer resolution model (NHDPlus model) were used to support the objectives. Results showed that knowledge of watershed characteristics and intra‐watershed processes are critical to produced accurate and realistic hydrologic simulations. The spatial calibration strategy produced better results compared to outlet calibration strategy and provided more confidence. Transferring parameter values across spatial scales (i.e. from coarser resolution model to finer resolution model) needs additional fine tuning to produce realistic results. Transferring parameters across temporal scales (i.e. from monthly to yearly and daily time‐steps) performed well with a similar spatial resolution model. Furthermore, this study shows that relying solely on quantitative statistics without considering additional information can produce good but unrealistic simulations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Many of the continuous watershed models perform all their computations on a daily time step, yet they are often calibrated at an annual or monthly time-scale that may not guarantee good simulation performance on a daily time step. The major objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the calibration time-scale on model predictive ability. This study considered the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the analyses, and it has been calibrated at two time-scales, viz. monthly and daily for the War Eagle Creek watershed in the USA. The results demonstrate that the model's performance at the smaller time-scale (such as daily) cannot be ensured by calibrating them at a larger time-scale (such as monthly). It is observed that, even though the calibrated model possesses satisfactory ‘goodness of fit’ statistics, the simulation residuals failed to confirm the assumption of their homoscedasticity and independence. The results imply that evaluation of models should be conducted considering their behavior in various aspects of simulation, such as predictive uncertainty, hydrograph characteristics, ability to preserve statistical properties of the historic flow series, etc. The study enlightens the scope for improving/developing effective autocalibration procedures at the daily time step for watershed models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献