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1.
The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB. 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACTThe impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
3.
应用CN05观测资料,以及参与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中的26个模式,评估了新一代全球气候模式对东北三省气候变化模拟能力并选出4个较优模式,发现经过筛选得出的较优模式集合平均模拟结果的可靠性得到进一步加强,尤其体现在对气温的模拟上.在此基础上着重分析了多模式集合在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs)下对未来气候变化特征的预估.结果表明:21世纪的未来阶段,东北三省将处于显著增温的状态,且RCP8.5情景下的增温速率(0.53℃/10a)明显高于RCP4.5情景下的速率(0.22℃/10a);空间上,北部地区将成为增温幅度最大、增温速率最高的区域.未来降水将会相对增加,但波动较大,21世纪末期RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的降水增加幅度分别为11.24%和15.95%;空间上,辽宁省西部地区将成为降水增加最为显著的区域.根据水分盈亏量,21世纪未来阶段,RCP4.5情景下的东北三省绝大多数地区未来将相对变湿,尤其到了中后期;RCP8.5情景下则是中西部地区将相对变干,其余地区则会相对变湿. 相似文献
4.
Hydrological projections of future climate change over the source region of Yellow River and Yangtze River in the Tibetan Plateau: A comprehensive assessment by coupling RegCM4 and VIC model 
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下载免费PDF全文 Wenjun Lu Weiguang Wang Quanxi Shao Zhongbo Yu Zhenchun Hao Wanqiu Xing Bin Yong Jinxing Li 《水文研究》2018,32(13):2096-2117
Understanding climate change impacts on hydrological regime and assessing future water supplies are essential to effective water resources management and planning, which is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. In this study, future climate change in the TP was projected for 2041–2060 by a high‐resolution regional climate model, RegCM4, under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Response of all key hydrological elements, that is, evapotranspiration, surface run‐off, baseflow, and snowmelt, to future climate in 2 typical catchments, the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, was further investigated by the variable infiltration capacity microscale hydrological model incorporated with a 2‐layer energy balance snow model and a frozen soil/permafrost algorithm at a 0.25°×0.25° spatial scale. The results reveal that (a) spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature from RegCM4 agree fairly well with the data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, indicating that RegCM4 well reproduces historical climatic information and thus is reliable to support future projection; (b) precipitation increase by 0–70% and temperature rise by 1–4 °C would occur in the TP under 3 RCPs. A clear south‐eastern–north‐western spatial increasing gradient in precipitation would be seen. Besides, under RCP8.5, the peak increase in temperature would approach to 4 °C in spring and autumn in the east of the TP; (c) evapotranspiration would increase by 10–60% in 2 source regions due to the temperature rise, surface run‐off and baseflow in higher elevation region would experience larger increase dominantly due to the precipitation increase, and streamflow would display general increases by more than 3% and 5% in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively; (d) snowmelt contributes 11.1% and 16.2% to total run‐off in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively, during the baseline period. In the source region of Yangtze River, snowmelt run‐off would become more important with increase of 17.5% and 18.3%, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 but decrease of 15.0% under RCP8.5. 相似文献
5.
Meteorological drought in the Beijiang River basin,South China: current observations and future projections 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Chuanhao Wu Zhuoyan Xian Guoru Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(7):1821-1834
It is expected that climate warming will be experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including droughts. This paper presents an analysis of observed changes and future projections for meteorological drought for four different time scales (1 month, and 3, 6 and 12 months) in the Beijiang River basin, South China, on the basis of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Observed changes in meteorological drought were analysed at 24 meteorological stations from 1969 to 2011. Future meteorological drought was projected based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as projected by the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical significance of the meteorological drought trends was checked with the Mann–Kendall method. The results show that drought has become more intense and more frequent in most parts of the study region during the past 43 years, mainly owing to a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, long-term dryness is expected to be more pronounced than short-term dryness. Validation of the model simulation indicates that RegCM4.0 provides a good simulation of the characteristic values of SPEIs. During the twenty first century, significant drying trends are projected for most parts of the study region, especially in the southern part of the basin. Furthermore, the drying trends for RCP8.5 (or for long time scales) are more pronounced than for RCP4.5 (or for short time scales). Compared to the baseline period 1971–2000, the frequency of drought for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) tends to increase (decrease) in 2021–2050 and decrease (increase) in 2051–2080. The results of this paper will be helpful for efficient water resources management in the Beijiang River basin under climate warming. 相似文献
6.
Cui Tong Yang Tao Xu Chong-Yu Shao Quanxi Wang Xiaoyan Li Zhenya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1849-1866
The source region of Yellow river is an alpine river sensitive to climate changes, but the potential effects of climate change on hydrological regime characteristics and ecological implications are less understood. This study aims to assess the response of the alterations in the flow regimes over the source region of Yellow river to climate change using Soil and Water Integrated Model driven by different Global Circulation Models (GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Indicators of hydrological alteration and River impact index are employed to evaluate streamflow regime alterations at multiple temporal scales. Results show that the magnitude of monthly and annual streamflow except May, the magnitude and duration of the annual extreme, and the number of reversals are projected to increase in the near future period (2020–2049) and far future period (2070–2099) compared to the baseline period (1971–2000). The timing of annual maximum flows is expected to shift backwards. The source region of Yellow river is expected to undergo low change degree as per the scenarios RCP2.6 for both two future periods and under the scenarios RCP4.5 for the near future period, whereas high change degree under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the far period on the daily scale. On the monthly scale, climate changes mainly have effects on river flow magnitude and timing. The basin would suffer an incipient impact alteration in the far period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while low impact in other scenarios. These changes in flow regimes could have several positive impacts on aquatic ecosystems in the near period but more detrimental effects in the far period.
相似文献7.
ABSTRACTThe impact of climate change on hydrology and water salinity of a valuable coastal wetland (Anzali) in northern Iran is assessed using daily precipitation and temperature data from 19 models of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The daily data are transiently downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator to three climatic stations. The temperature is projected to increase by +1.6, +1.9 and +2.7°C and precipitation to decrease by 10.4%, 12.8% and 12.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The wetland hydrology and water salinity are assessed using the water balance approach and mixing equation, respectively. The upstream river flow modelled by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is projected to reduce by up to 18%, leading to reductions in wetland volume (154 × 106 m3), area (57.47 km2) and depth (2.77 m) by 34%, 21.1% and 20.2%, respectively, under climate change, while the mean annual total dissolved solids (1675 mg/L) would increase by 49%. The reduced volume and raised salinity may affect the wetland ecology. 相似文献
8.
Long Xuyen Quadrangle is one of the important agricultural areas of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam accounting for 25% of rice production. In recent years, the area faces drought and salinization problems, as part of climate change impact and sea level rise. These are the main causes that led to the crop water deficits for agricultural production. Therefore, this work was conducted to predict crop water requirement (CWR) based on consideration of other related meteorological factors and further redefine the crop planting calendar (CPC) for three main cropping seasons including winter–spring (WS), summer–autumn (SA) and autumn–spring (AS) using the Cropwat crop model based on the current climate conditions and future climate change scenarios. Meteorological data for the baseline period (2006–2016) and future corresponding to timescales 2020s, 2055s and 2090s of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to predict CWR and CPC for the study area. The results showed that WS and SA crops needed more irrigation water than AS crop and the highest irrigation water requirement of the WS and SA crops occurred on developmental stage, while the AW crop appeared on growth, developmental and late stage for the baseline and timescales of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Calculation results of the shift of CPC indicated that the CWR of the AW crop decreased lowest approximately 6.6–20.6% for timescales of RCP4.5 scenario and 20.6–25.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared with the baseline. 相似文献
9.
Stream temperature is an important control of many in-stream processes. There is rising concern about increases in stream temperature with projected climate changes and human-related water activities. Here, we investigate the responses to climate change and water diversions in Eel River basin. The increase in stream temperatures is considered to be the result of changes in air temperature, the proportion of base flow and the amount of stream flow derived from historical and future simulations using the integrated VIC hydrologic model and ANN stream temperature model. The results show that stream temperature will increase throughout the basin in the future under two climate change representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and will also be influenced by the water diversion activities schedules. Specifically, the stream temperature increases, in the late twenty-first century under RCP8.5 scenarios, from 1.20 to 2.40 °C in summer and from 0.58–3.46 °C in winter respectively; Water diversion activities in Eel River Basin can increase nearly 1 °C in stream temperature. Therefore, both climate change and water diversion activities can substantially cause the rise of more than 2 °C in stream temperature. In conclusion, stream temperature is mainly sensitive to the proportion of base flow in summer, but also the change of the amount of stream flow in winter in our case study area. In addition, it should be noted that the low intensity irrigation schedule has lower impacts on increasing stream temperature, whereas the high intensity irrigation schedule will further exacerbate the rise of stream temperature. Understanding the different impacts of climate change scenarios and irrigation schedules on stream temperature can help identify climate-sensitive regions, climate-sensitive seasons and water diversion schedules as well as assist in planning for climate change and social adaptive management. 相似文献
10.
Edgar Rodríguez-Huerta Martí Rosas-Casals Laura Margarita Hernández-Terrones 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):470-486
ABSTRACTThe aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region. 相似文献
11.
Surface runoff is a major water resource component and its spatial and temporal variations significantly impact on regional socio-economic development. In this study, changes to surface runoff in Jiangsu Province, China, were simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model for the period 2011–2040, using input data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models and three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In general, annual mean precipitation under the five models and three scenarios showed a fluctuating upward trend, while annual mean temperatures were projected to increase by up to 1.34 °C, as compared with the reference period (1970–1999). Monthly mean runoff depths were generally predicted to increase, with the most significant increases occurring in December. Increasing runoff depths were highest under the RCP8.5 emission scenario and lowest under RCP4.5. The results of this study provide an important reference for policymakers planning for the future water resources in Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, we conducted a case study with the VIC model and it showed high consistency with gauges and provides a new reference for the studies of other plain regions. 相似文献
12.
Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin,West Africa 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Djigbo Félicien Badou Bernd Diekkrüger Evison Kapangaziwiri Mamadou L. Mbaye Yacouba Yira Emmanuel A. Lawin Ganiyu T. Oyerinde Abel Afouda 《水文研究》2018,32(16):2526-2542
The aim of this study was to quantify climate change impact on future blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources as well as the associated uncertainties for 4 subbasins of the Beninese part of the Niger River Basin. The outputs of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled for the historical period (1976–2005) and for the future (2021–2050) using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Comparison of climate variables between these 2 periods suggests that rainfall will increase (1.7% to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but shows mixed trends (?8.5% to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase up to 0.48 °C for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 up to ?0.37 °C. Driven by the downscaled climate data, future BW and GW were evaluated with hydrological models validated with streamflow and soil moisture, respectively. The results indicate that GW will increase in all the 4 investigated subbasins, whereas BW will only increase in one subbasin. The overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of the future BW and GW was quantified through the computation of the interquartile range of the total number of model realizations (combinations of regional climate models and selected hydrological models) for each subbasin. The results show larger uncertainty for the quantification of BW than GW. To cope with the projected decrease in BW that could adversely impact the livelihoods and food security of the local population, recommendations for the development of adequate adaptation strategies are briefly discussed. 相似文献
13.
Ocean tides and resonance 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Johan A. Mattias Green 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(5):1243-1253
Tidal currents and surface amplitudes are calculated globally for the dominating diurnal and semidiurnal constituents using an established tidal model under a range of altered bathymetry. The purpose is to evaluate if the well-known amplification of the global tides during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is related to changed propagation properties for the tidal wave or to changed damping due to removal of shelf seas. The response of the tides and tidal dissipation to future sea-level rise is also discussed. The tides in the present and LGM oceans were simulated first, followed by runs where the present day bathymetry was used but the shelf seas removed by the introduction of vertical walls or where sea level is allowed to rise. Previously reported results regarding tidal amplitudes and dissipation rates are reproduced in the control runs. The runs without shelf seas show significantly enhanced tidal amplitudes in the North Atlantic, whereas sea-level rise of 5 m above present levels show a significant shift in the amphidromic points on a local and regional scale but had a limited effect on the open ocean tides. Simulations with very large sea-level rise show a significantly decreased global tidal dissipation, whereas experiments without friction in present-day shallow water display results similar to those with no shelf seas. The results all point towards changing damping properties due to the removal of shelf seas as being the mechanism behind the LGM amplification, and they imply the importance of implementing future sea-level changes properly in tidal simulations. 相似文献
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15.
Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth’s temperature and consequently have led to changes in wind and wave regimes. The main effects of climate change on oceans are warming of the ocean water, melting of ice, acidification of ocean water, and change in the ocean currents. The main effects of climate change on coastal regions are change in the coast hydrodynamics, sea level rise, change in wave height, coastal erosion, coastal structure damage, food shortage, and storms. Due to the importance of waves in the coastal zone and its effect on erosion and sedimentation, it is necessary to study wave changes. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave specifications was evaluated in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Noshahr Port. To simulate wave parameters, the third generation spectral Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used. Wave modeling was carried out using the SWAN numerical model for two 30-yearly periods, including the control period (1984 to 2014) and the future period (2051 to 2080). For wave modeling in the control period, the European Center for Average Weather Forecast wind field was used, and for the future period, a downscaled wind field from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment projection, which was sponsored by World Climate Research Programme, based on the most recent emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, was used. The model results were calibrated and verified with buoy-recorded data. The effect of the climate change on the wave parameters was evaluated by studying the differences between the patterns in three scenarios and the control period. Results showed that the 30-year maximum significant wave height will increase because of climate change, and the wave direction will not change. In addition, the intensity of storms will increase in the future.
相似文献16.
Projections of changes in climate are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on natural and social systems. However, current knowledge on assembling different GCMs to estimate future climate change over the Pear River basin is still limited so far. This study examined the capability of BMA and arithmetic mean (AM) method in assembling precipitation and temperature from CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Pearl River basin. Results show that the BMA outperforms the traditional AM method. Precipitation tends to increase over the basin under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, whereas decrease under RCP8.5. The most remarkable increase of precipitation is found in the northern region under RCP2.6 scenario. The linear trend of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature increases with the growing CO2 concentration. The warming trends in four seasons are distinct. The warming rate is prominent in summer and spring than that in other season, meanwhile it is larger in western region than in other parts of the basin. The findings can provide beneficial reference to water resources and agriculture management strategies, as well as the adaptation and mitigation strategies for floods and droughts under the context of global climate change. 相似文献
17.
Based on tide gauge observations spanning almost 200 years, homogeneous time series of the mean relative sea level were derived for nine sites at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. Our regionally concentrated data were complemented by long-term relative sea-level records retrieved from the data base of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). From these records relative sea-level change rates were derived at 51 tide gauge stations for the period between 1908 and 2007. A minimum observation time of 60 years is required for the determination of reliable sea-level rates. At present, no anthropogenic acceleration in sea-level rise is detected in the tide gauge observations in the southern Baltic. The spatial variation of the relative sea-level rates reflects the fingerprint of GIA-induced crustal uplift. Time series of extreme sea levels were also inferred from the tide gauge records. They were complemented by water level information from historic storm surge marks preserved along the German Baltic coast. Based on this combined dataset the incidence and spatial variation of extreme sea levels induced by storm surges were analysed yielding important information for hazard assessments. Permanent GPS observations were used to determine recent crustal deformation rates for 44 stations in the Baltic Sea region. The GPS derived height change rates were applied to reduce the relative sea-level changes observed by tide gauges yielding an estimate for the eustatic sea-level change. For 13 tide gauge-GPS colocation sites a mean eustatic sea-level trend of 1.3 mm/a was derived for the last 100 years. 相似文献
18.
Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas,Morocco) 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km2) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch 相似文献
19.
Impacts of climate variability and change on drought characteristics in the Niger River Basin,West Africa 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past (1986–2005) and future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) were analyzed. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to quantify river flow. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA4 ensemble gives realistic simulations of the climatology of the Basin in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and frequency are projected over NRB. The coupling between SRI and drought indices was very strong (P < 0.05). The dominant peaks can be classified into three distinct drought cycles with periods 1–2, 2–4, 4–8 years. These cycles may be associated with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). River flow was highly sensitive to precipitation in the NRB and a 1–3 month lead time was found between drought indices and SRI. Under RCP4.5, changes in the SPEI drought frequency range from 1.8 (2046–2065) to 2.4 (2081–2100) month year?1 while under RCP8.5, the change ranges from 2.2 (2046–2065) to 3.0 month year?1 (2081–2100). Niger Middle sub-basin is likely to be mostly impacted in the future while the Upper Niger was projected to be least impacted. Results of this study may guide policymakers to evolve strategies to facilitate vulnerability assessment and adaptive capacity of the basin in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change. 相似文献
20.
Flood modelling inputs used to create flood hazard maps are normally based on the assumption of data stationarity for flood frequency analysis. However, changes in the behaviour of climate systems can lead to nonstationarity in flood series. Here, we develop flood hazard maps for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, under nonstationary conditions using extreme value analysis, a coupled 1D–2D model and high-resolution topographical data derived from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Our findings indicate that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) influence the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall, while global sea-level rise causes nonstationarity in local sea levels, having an impact on flood risk. The detailed flood hazard maps show that areas of high flood potential are located along river banks, with 0.60 km2 of the study area being unsafe for people, vehicles and buildings (H5 zone) under a 100-year return period scenario. 相似文献