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1.
The sea level change is a crucial indicator of our climate. The spatial sampling offered by satellite altimetry and its continuity during the last 18 years are major assets to provide an improved vision of the sea level changes. In this paper, we analyze the University of Colorado database of sea level time series to determine the trends for 18 large ocean regions by means of the automatic trend extraction approach in the framework of the singular spectrum analysis technique. Our global sea level trend estimate of 3.19 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2010 is comparable with the 3.20-mm/year sea level rise since 1993 calculated by AVISO Altimetry. However, the trends from the different ocean regions show dissimilar patterns. The major contributions to the global sea level rise during 1993–2010 are from the Indian Ocean (3.78?±?0.08 mm/year).  相似文献   

2.
The sea level change is a crucial indicator of our climate. The spatial sampling offered by satellite altimetry and its continuity during the past years are the major assets to provide an improved vision of the Mediterranean sea level changes. In this paper, an automatic signal extraction approach, based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), is utilized for analysis and seasonal adjustment of the Mediterranean Sea level series. This automatic approach enables us to overcome the difficulties of visual identification of trend constituents that sometimes we encounter when using the conventional SSA method. The results indicate that the Mediterranean mean sea level is dominated by several harmonic components. The annual signal is particularly strong and almost covers 73.62 % of the original sea level series variation whiles its amplitude is about 15 cm. The extracted trend also indicates that the Mediterranean main sea level has significantly been raised during the period 1993–2012 by 2.44?±?0.4 mm yr?1. As an important consequence, considering the current situation, if this trend continues, the Mediterranean Sea level will be raised about 22 cm by the end of this century, which makes a dramatic effect on several issues such as land, flora, fauna, and people activities established along the Mediterranean coastlines.  相似文献   

3.
This paper reports the results of analysis of groundwater level changes and its relationship with rainfall across KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province of South Africa. The study used 32 groundwater level monitoring sites and 15 selected rainfall stations located across the province. The Mann–Kendall test was used to explore the presence of trends in groundwater level and rainfall data at 10% significance level. The slope of the trend was estimated using Sen’s slope estimator. To understand the cause–effect relationship between rainfall and groundwater level changes, the cumulative rainfall departure (CRD) was computed at the respective rainfall stations influencing the groundwater monitoring site. The results show variable but a general decreasing trend. The variability of the groundwater level trends was analyzed based on water management areas (WMA): (1) both groundwater level and rainfall have a decreasing trend for the entire record period in the Usuthu–Mhlathuzi WMA. Groundwater level around Tembe and Mbazwana areas declined by 0.7 and 2.7 m, respectively. Areas around Richards Bay experienced a reduction between 0.7 and 6.3 m from 2004 to 2015. During the same period, the rainfall within the WMA decreased by 26, 6 and 18% from the mean around Tembe, Mbazwana and Richards Bay, respectively; (2) The northern sector of the uThukela WMA, around Dundee and Newcastle exhibited groundwater level increase by about 1.5 m between 2004 and 2010 but later declined by 1.2 m from 2014 to 2015. The rainfall increased by 8% from 2004 to 2010, and decreased by 22% at the end of 2015. The central part of the uThukela WMA, around Tugela Ferry and Greytown, experienced groundwater level and rainfall reductions of 3.2 m and 15%, respectively, during the entire record period; (3) Within the Mvoti–uMzimkulu WMA in the vicinity of Maphumulo, groundwater level decline by 11 m from 2005 to 2011. However, it recovered by 8 m between 2012 and 2013 following an increase in rainfall by 21%. Areas around Durban exhibited increasing trend from 2005 to 2008 in response to an increasing rainfall amount by about 13% for the same period. The reduction in rainfall by 21% from 2012 to 2015 resulted in a decline of groundwater level by 0.4 m. The steady decline in groundwater levels across the province appears to be a response to prolonged reduction in rainfall, which consequently reduced the amount of groundwater recharge reaching the aquifer. The general response of groundwater levels to changes in rainfall across the province has a lag time from 1 to 4 months.  相似文献   

4.
The aim of this study was to investigate temporal variation in seasonal and annual rainfall trend over Ranchi district of Jharkhand, India for the period (1901–2014: 113 years). Mean monthly rainfall data series were used to determine the significance and magnitude of the trend using non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator. The analysis showed a significant decreased in rainfall during annual, winter and southwest monsoon rainfall while increased in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall over the Ranchi district. A positive trend is detected in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall data series while annual, winter and southwest monsoon rainfall showed a negative trend. The maximum decrease in rainfall was found for monsoon (? 1.348 mm year?1) and minimum (? 0.098 mm year?1) during winter rainfall. The trend of post-monsoon rainfall was found upward (0.068 mm year?1). The positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall were found statistically non-significant except monsoon rainfall at 5% level of significance. Rainfall variability pattern was calculated using coefficient of variation CV, %. Post-monsoon rainfall showed the maximum value of CV (70.80%), whereas annual rainfall exhibited the minimum value of CV (17.09%), respectively. In general, high variation of CV was found which showed that the entire region is very vulnerable to droughts and floods.  相似文献   

5.
The groundwater table in the piedmont plain was only about 1–2 m in depth in the 1950s and 1960s, but it lowered dramatically afterwards to about 25–27 m in depth (currently 21–23 m above sea level) due to overpumping of groundwater and drought in the region. This change has adversely affected the sustainable development and food supply of this important agricultural area. The groundwater table at Luancheng Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, located in the piedmont, dropped from 39.36 m in 1975 to 21.47 m above sea level in 1999, at an average rate of 0.72 m/year. Water balance components, such as daily rainfall, pan-evaporation, and evapotranspiration (by lysimeter after 1995) have been recorded since the 1970s, and they were used as variants to simulate monthly water table change based on a physically based statistical model. Groundwater samples were collected during the period 1998–2001, and tritium was measured in the laboratory to trace the groundwater flow from the Taihang Mountains to the piedmont. A reasonable exploitation rate of 150 mm/year was obtained from the model by assuming the annual water table is constant. The recharge and groundwater flow from the Taihang Mountains plays an important role in the water balance of the piedmont area, and it was estimated to be about 112.5 mm/year by using the variation of tritium with the depth, which followed a good exponential function. The simple water balance calculation indicated that the water table could recede at a rate of 0.8 m/year, which is close to the actual situation.  相似文献   

6.
This study was carried out to determine the flux of nutrients and heavy metals from the Melai sub-catchment into Lake Chini through the process of erosion. Melai River is one of the seven feeder rivers that contributed to the present water level of Lake Chini. Three properties of soils, such as particle size, organic matter content, and soil hydraulic conductivity and three chemical soil properties, such as available nutrients, dissolved nutrients, and heavy metals, were analyzed and interpreted. Potential soil loss was estimated using the revised universal soil loss equation model. The results show that the soil textures in the study area consist of clay, silty clay, clay loam, and sandy silt loam. The organic matter content ranges from 3.40 to 9.92 %, while the hydraulic conductivity ranges from 5.2 to 25.3 cm/h. Mean values of available P, K, and Mg amount was 8.5 ± 3.7 μg/g, 24.5 ± 3.4 μg/g, and 20.7 ± 18.6 μg/g, respectively. The highest concentration of soluble nutrients was SO 4 ?2 (815.8 ± 624.1 μg/g), followed by NO3 ?-N (295.5 ± 372.7 μg/g), NH4 +-N (24.5 ± 22.1 μg/g) and PO4 3? (2.0 ± 0.8 μg/g). The rainfall erosivity value was 1658.7 MJ mm/ha/h/year. The soil erodibility and slope factor ranges from 0.06 to 0.26 ton h/MJ/mm and 7.63 to 18.33, respectively. The rate of soil loss from the Melai sub-catchment in the present condition is very low (0.0028 ton/ha/year) to low (18.93 ton/ha/year), and low level flow of nutrients and heavy metals, indicating that the Melai River was not the contaminant source of sediments, nutrients, and heavy metals to the lake.  相似文献   

7.
Seawater intrusion is a major threat to the rapidly depleting groundwater resources in the coastal areas of India. Groundwater-based irrigation, significant industrial development and rapid urbanization are some of the key contributors exacerbating the stress on groundwater resources. Vulnerability to seawater intrusion in the Ramanathapuram district of Eastern India is assessed here utilizing the GALDIT method, for a period of 10 years (2001–2010). Results revealed a drastic increase in percent area coverage under moderate vulnerability, from 19.5 to 53.88 %, between the years 2001 and 2010. On the contrary, areas classified as highly vulnerable underwent minor changes over the span of the study. Vulnerability of the study area was also analyzed for the year 2050 considering an average global mean sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year. Results from the analysis for the year 2050 showed that, almost, the entire study area (~97 %) was classified under moderate vulnerability. As a remedial measure to this imminent threat, favorable zones for artificial recharge were delineated on the basis of overlay analysis with weightage values for important controlling factors. Subsequently, the quantity of artificial recharge required to inhibit the intrusion of seawater, at specified favorable zones were estimated to be 674.87, 599.18 and 1,450.66 m3/year.  相似文献   

8.
Meteorological tsunamis are frequently observed in different tide stations at the southeastern coast of South America. They are associated with the occurrence of atmospheric gravity waves during the passages of cold fronts over the Buenos Aires Province continental shelf. On the other hand, storm surges are also frequent in the region, and they are associated with strong and persistent southerlies, which are also frequent during cold front passages. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in coastal erosion and in the statistics of storm surge trends is discussed in this paper. For this study, fifteen meteorological tsunamis (with maximum wave heights higher than 0.20 m), seven of them simultaneous to the occurrence of storm surge events (with extreme levels higher than |±0.60 m|), are selected from April 2010 to January 2013. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in the storm erosion potential index (SEPI) is evaluated. Not significant differences are obtained between SEPI calculated with and without filtering the meteorological tsunami signal from the storm surge data series. Moreover, several experiments are carried out computing SEPI from synthetic sea level data series, but very low changes (lower than 4 %) are also obtained. It is concluded that the presence of moderate meteorological tsunamis on sea level records would not enhance this index at the Buenos Aires Province coast. On the other hand, taking into account that meteorological tsunamis can reach up the 20–30 % of the storm surge height, it was concluded that the statistics of storm surge trends (and their uncertainties) should be revised for Mar del Plata data series.  相似文献   

9.
The variability in the long-term temperature and sea level over the north Indian Ocean during the period 1958–2000 has been investigated using an Ocean General Circulation Model, Modular Ocean Model version 4. The model simulated fields are compared with the sea level observations from tide-gauges, Topex/Poseidon (T/P) satellite, in situ temperature profile observations from WHOI moored buoy and sea surface temperature (SST) observations from DS1, DS3 and DS4 moored buoys. It is seen that the long (6–8 years) warming episodes in the SST over the north Indian Ocean are followed by short episodes (2–3 years) of cooling. The model temperature and sea level anomaly over the north Indian Ocean show an increasing trend in the study period. The model thermocline heat content per unit area shows a linear increasing trend (from 1958–2000) at the rate of 0.0018 × 1011 J/m2 per year for north Indian Ocean. North Indian Ocean sea level anomaly (thermosteric component) also shows a linear increasing trend of 0.31 mm/year during 1958–2000.  相似文献   

10.
Aerosol parameters are measured using a ground-based Multi-wavelength Radiometer (MWR) at Mohal (31.90°N, 77.11°E, 1154 m amsl) in the Kullu valley during clear sky days of a seasonal year. The study shows that the values of spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) at 500 nm and the Ångstrom turbidity coefficient ‘β’ (a measure of columnar loading in atmosphere) are high (0.41 ± 0.03, 0.27 ± 0.01) in summer, moderate (0.30 ± 0.03, 0.15 ± 0.03) in monsoon, low (0.19 ± 0.02, 0.08 ± 0.01) in winter and lowest (0.18 ± 0.01, 0.07 ± 0.01) in autumn, respectively. The Ångstrom wavelength exponent ‘α’ (indicator of the fraction of accumulation-mode particles to coarse-mode particles) has an opposite trend having lowest value (0.64 ± 0.06) in summer, low (0.99 ± 0.10) in monsoon, moderate (1.20 ± 0.15) in winter and highest value (1.52 ± 0.03) in autumn. The annual mean value of AOD at 500 nm, ‘α’ and ‘β’ are 0.24 ± 0.01, 1.06 ± 0.09 and 0.14 ± 0.01, respectively. The fractional asymmetry factor is more negative in summer due to enhanced tourists’ arrival and also in autumn months due to the month-long International Kullu Dussehra fair. The AOD values given by MWR and satellite-based moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer have good correlation of 0.76, 0.92 and 0.97 on diurnal, monthly and seasonal basis, respectively. The AODs at 500 nm as well as ‘β’ are found to be highly correlated, while ‘α’ is found to be strongly anti-correlated with temperature and wind speed suggesting high AODs and turbidity but low concentration of fine particles during hot and windy days. With wind direction, the AOD and ‘β’ are found to be strongly anti-correlated, while ‘α’ is strongly correlated.  相似文献   

11.
This study addresses gaps in understanding the relative roles of sea‐level change, coastal geomorphology and sediment availability in driving beach erosion at the scale of individual beaches. Patterns of historical shoreline change are examined for spatial relationships to geomorphology and for temporal relationships to late‐Holocene and modern sea‐level change. The study area shoreline on the north‐east coast of Oahu, Hawaii, is characterized by a series of kilometre‐long beaches with repeated headland‐embayed morphology fronted by a carbonate fringing reef. The beaches are the seaward edge of a carbonate sand‐rich coastal strand plain, a common morphological setting in tectonically stable tropical island coasts. Multiple lines of geological evidence indicate that the strand plain prograded atop a fringing reef platform during a period of late‐Holocene sea‐level fall. Analysis of historical shoreline changes indicates an overall trend of erosion (shoreline recession) along headland sections of beach and an overall trend of stable to accreting beaches along adjoining embayed sections. Eighty‐eight per cent of headland beaches eroded over the past century at an average rate of ?0·12 ± 0·03 m yr?1. In contrast, 56% of embayed beaches accreted at an average rate of 0·04 ± 0·03 m yr?1. Given over a century of global (and local) sea‐level rise, the data indicate that embayed beaches are showing remarkable resiliency. The pattern of headland beach erosion and stable to accreting embayments suggests a shift from accretion to erosion particular to the headland beaches with the initiation of modern sea‐level rise. These results emphasize the need to account for localized variations in beach erosion related to geomorphology and alongshore sediment transport in attempting to forecast future shoreline change under increasing sea‐level rise.  相似文献   

12.
A 115-year-old railroad levee bisecting a tidal freshwater marsh perpendicular to the Patuxent River (Maryland) channel has created a northern, upstream marsh and a southern, downstream marsh. The main purpose of this study was to determine how this levee may affect the ability of the marsh system to gain elevation and to determine the levee’s impact on the marsh’s long-term sustainability to local relative sea level rise (RSLR). Previously unpublished data from 1989 to 1992 showed that suspended solids and short-term sediment deposition were greater in the south marsh compared to the north marsh; wetland surface elevation change data (1999 to 2009) showed significantly higher elevation gain in the south marsh compared to the north (6?±?2 vs. 0?±?2 mm year?1, respectively). However, marsh surface accretion (2007 to 2009) showed no significant differences between north and south marshes (23?±?8 and 26?±?7 mm year?1, respectively), and showed that shallow subsidence was an important process in both marshes. A strong seasonal effect was evident for both accretion and elevation change, with significant gains during the growing season and elevation loss during the non-growing season. Sediment transport, deposition and accretion decreased along the intertidal gradient, although no clear patterns in elevation change were recorded. Given the range in local RSLR rates in the Chesapeake Bay (2.9 to 5.8 mm year?1), only the south marsh is keeping pace with sea level at the present time. Although one would expect the north marsh to benefit from high accretion of abundant riverine sediments, these results suggest that long-term elevation gain is a more nuanced process involving more than riverine sediments. Overall, other factors such as infrequent episodic coastal events may be important in allowing the south marsh to keep pace with sea level rise. Finally, caution should be exercised when using data sets spanning only a couple of years to estimate wetland sustainability as they may not be representative of long-term cumulative effects. Two years of data do not seem to be enough to establish long-term elevation change rates at Jug Bay, but instead a decadal time frame is more appropriate.  相似文献   

13.
The original Badong County, Hubei, China, was mainly below the highest water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir, which is 175 m above sea level. The new downtown of Badong was rebuilt in the Huangtupo area between 1982 and 1991. After detailed geological investigation in the Huangtupo area, four independent landslides were identified, making it one of the largest and most harmful landslide group in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Since 2003, abundant data have been obtained from the Huangtupo No. 1 sliding mass about rainfall, water level, earth surface deformation and deep deformation. The monitoring data indicate that the earth surface and deep deformation of this landslide is closely related to the seasonal rainfall and water level fluctuation of the reservoir. During increases in the water level, the earth surface deformation velocity decreases, and then increases obviously in the subsequent water level decreasing stage. Because the water level drawdown period overlaps with the rainy season in this area, the earth surface deformation is affected by both rainfall and water level. The deformation velocity of the earth surface caused by rainfall is about 5 mm/month, while that caused by water level decrease is 5–7 mm/month. On the contrary, the deformation velocity of the deep sliding mass accelerates 2 to 3 times faster than average during water level increase. The distinction of surface and deep deformation regulations indicates that the effects of seasonal rainfall and water level fluctuation on the stability of reservoir wading landslides are different. Based on all monitoring data, we also found that the Huangtupo No. 1 riverside sliding mass is creeping seasonally during the seasonal rainfall and periodic reservoir water level fluctuation. The deformation velocities of the east regions of the sliding body indicate acceleration, making these regions even more dangerous.  相似文献   

14.
The Kangra reentrant constitutes a ~ 80-km-wide zone of fold-thrust belt made of Cenozoic strata of the foreland basin in NW Sub-Himalaya. Earlier workers estimated the total long-term shortening rate of 14 ± 2 mm/year by balanced cross-section between the Main Boundary Thrust and the Himalayan Frontal Thrust. Geologically estimated rate is nearly consistent with the GPS-derived slip rate of 14 ± 1 mm/year. There are active faults developed within 4–8 km depth of the Sub-Himalayan fold-thrust belt of the reentrant. Dating the strath surfaces of the abandoned fluvial terraces and fans above the thrust faults, the uplift (bedrock incision) rates are computed. The dips of thrust faults are measured in field and from available seismic (depth) profiles. From the acquired data, late Quaternary shortening rates on the Jawalamukhi Thrust (JT), the Soan Thrust (ST) and the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) are estimated. The shortening rates on the JT are 3.5–4.2 mm/year over a period 32–30 ka. The ST yields a shortening rate of 3.0 mm/year for 29 ka. The corresponding shortening and slip rates estimated on the HFT are 6.0 and 6.9 mm/year during a period 42 ka. On the back thrust of Janauri Anticline, the shortening and slip rates are 2.0 and 2.2 mm/year, respectively, for the same period. The results constrained the shortening to be distributed largely across a 50-km-wide zone between the JT and the HFT. The emergence of surface rupture of a great and mega earthquakes recorded on the reactivated HFT implies ≥100 km width of the rupture. The ruptures of large earthquakes, like the 1905 Kangra and 2005 Kashmir, remained restricted to the hinterland. The present study indicates that the high magnitude earthquakes can occur between the locking line and the active thrusts.  相似文献   

15.
Flakket on the island of Anholt in Denmark is a cuspate foreland facing the microtidal Kattegat sea. It is composed of a number of beach ridges typically covered by dune sand and separated by swales and wetlands. OSL dating indicates that the evolution of Flakket began c. AD 1000. Foreland growth was punctuated by a major episode of coastal reorganization leading to coastal retreat c. AD 1800. Coastal retreat led to the formation of an erosion surface that separates older and higher‐lying beach‐ridge and swale deposits from younger and lower‐lying deposits. The palaeo‐sea level is deduced from the architecture of the deposits, and interpretation of ground‐penetrating radar data and geomophological observations indicates that relative sea level was about 1.90±0.25 m above present sea level c. AD 1000, but about 0.00±0.25 m relative to present sea level c. AD 1830 and c. AD 1870. Anholt is situated at the margin of the uplifted Fennoscandian area; assuming uplift to be about 1.2 mm a?1 it follows that absolute sea level was about +0.70±0.25 m at AD 1000, but around ?0.22±0.25 m at AD 1830 and around ?0.17±0.25 m at AD 1870. Within the uncertainties of the age control, the sea‐level indicators mapped by ground‐penetrating radar reflections and the variability of estimates of uplift found in the literature, the result obtained for AD 1000 is consistent with findings from the Stockholm area in Sweden and with a recently published global sea‐level curve.  相似文献   

16.
Fossil shark teeth and coprolites from three major phosphorite occurrences in the Gafsa Basin (southwestern Tunisia) were investigated for their geochemical compositions to improve local stratigraphy and to better assess paleoenvironmental conditions. 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios of shark teeth from the Early Maastrichtian El Haria Formation and from the Early Eocene Métlaoui s.s. Formation yielded Sr isotope ages of 68 ± 1 and 47.9 ± 1.3 Ma, respectively, which accord with the expected stratigraphic positions of these sediments. Conversely, shark teeth from the Paleocene–Eocene Chouabine Formation have large variation in Sr isotope ratios even within individual layers. After statistical treatment and then elimination of certain outlier samples, three age-models are proposed and discussed. The most reasonable solution includes three subsequent Sr ages of 61.8 ± 2.2 Ma, 57.2 ± 1.8 and 54.6 ± 1.6 for layer IX, layers VIII–V and layers IV–0, respectively. Three scenarios are discussed for explanation of the presence of the outliers: (1) diagenesis, (2) re-working and (3) locally controlled seawater Sr isotope ratio. The most plausible account for the higher 87Sr/86Sr ratios relative to the global ocean in some fossils is enhanced intrabasinal re-working due to low sea level. Conversely, the sample with lower 87Sr/86Sr than the global seawater may link to diagenesis or to seawater influenced by weathering of Late Cretaceous marine carbonates, which latter is supported by model calculation as well. The εNd values of these fossils are very similar to those reported for Paleogene and Late Cretaceous Tethyan seawater and are compatible with the above interpretations. The relatively low oxygen isotope values in shark teeth from the topmost phosphate bed of the Chouabine Formation, together with the Sr isotope results, point toward recovering better connections with the open sea. These δ18O data reflect elevated ambient temperature, which may link to the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum.  相似文献   

17.
全球海平面变化研究新进展   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  
综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。  相似文献   

18.
Global change in land water storage and its effect on sea level is estimated over a 7-year time span (August 2002 to July 2009) using space gravimetry data from GRACE. The 33 World largest river basins are considered. We focus on the year-to-year variability and construct a total land water storage time series that we further express in equivalent sea level time series. The short-term trend in total water storage adjusted over this 7-year time span is positive and amounts to 80.6 ± 15.7 km3/yr (net water storage excess). Most of the positive contribution arises from the Amazon and Siberian basins (Lena and Yenisei), followed by the Zambezi, Orinoco and Ob basins. The largest negative contributions (water deficit) come from the Mississippi, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Aral, Euphrates, Indus and Parana. Expressed in terms of equivalent sea level, total water volume change over 2002–2009 leads to a small negative contribution to sea level of –0.22 ± 0.05 mm/yr. The time series for each basin clearly show that year-to-year variability dominates so that the value estimated in this study cannot be considered as representative of a long-term trend. We also compare the interannual variability of total land water storage (removing the mean trend over the studied time span) with interannual variability in sea level (corrected for thermal expansion). A correlation of ∼0.6 is found. Phasing, in particular, is correct. Thus, at least part of the interannual variability of the global mean sea level can be attributed to land water storage fluctuations.  相似文献   

19.
An underwater geomorphological survey along the coasts of six Cycladic islands (Sifnos, Antiparos, Paros, Naxos, Iraklia and Keros) revealed widespread evidence of seven submerged tidal notches. At least seven former shorelines were identified at depths between 280 ± 20 and 30 ± 5 cm below modern sea level. The vertical succession of several submerged notches suggests the occurrence of rapid subsidence events, potentially of seismic origin. Comparison with other sea-level indicators from Naxos and Delos islands indicates that these relative sea-level changes took place after 3300 BP and provides a rough estimate of the time of development of several submerged shorelines. The submergence of the uppermost notch at ?30 ± 5 cm is ascribed to effects of the recent global sea-level rise occurred during the last two centuries and, at least in part, to effects of recent earthquakes. Potential effects of the 1956 Amorgos earthquake with regard to coseismic and post-seismic vertical displacement have been recently investigated using a modellistic approach. According to the above, the lower shorelines should result from repetitive subsidence events and not from gradual subsidence.  相似文献   

20.
The sea levels along the semi-arid South Texas coast are noted to have risen by 3–5 mm/year over the last five decades. Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that this trend will continue in the 21st century with projected sea level rise in the order of 1.8–5.9 mm/year due to the melting of glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. Furthermore, the temperature in South Texas is projected to increase by as much as 4 °C by the end of the 21st century creating a greater stress on scarce water resources of the region. Increased groundwater use hinterland due to urbanization as well as rising sea levels due to climate change impact the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers and threaten the sustainability of coastal communities that primarily rely on groundwater resources. The primary goal of this study was to develop an integrated decision support framework to assist land and water planners in coastal communities to assess the impacts of climate change and urbanization. More specifically, the developed system was used to address whether coastal side (primarily controlled by climate change) or landward side processes (controlled by both climate change and urbanization) had a greater control on the saltwater intrusion phenomenon. The decision support system integrates a sharp-interface model with information from GCMs and observed data and couples them to statistical and information-theoretic uncertainty analysis techniques. The developed decision support system is applied to study saltwater intrusion characteristics at a small coastal community near Corpus Christi, TX. The intrusion characteristics under various plausible climate and urbanization scenarios were evaluated with consideration given to uncertainty and variability of hydrogeologic parameters. The results of the study indicate that low levels of climate change have a greater impact on the freshwater-saltwater interface when the level of urbanization is low. However, the rate of inward intrusion of the saltwater wedge is controlled more so by urbanization effects than climate change. On a local (near coast) scale, the freshwater-saltwater interface was affected by groundwater production locations more so than the volume produced by the community. On a regional-scale, the sea level rise at the coast was noted to have limited impact on saltwater intrusion which was primarily controlled by freshwater influx from the hinterlands towards the coast. These results indicate that coastal communities must work proactively with planners from the up-dip areas to ensure adequate freshwater flows to the coast. Field monitoring of this parameter is clearly warranted. The concordance analysis indicated that input parameter sensitivity did not change across modeled scenarios indicating that future data collection and groundwater monitoring efforts should not be hampered by noted divergences in projected climate and urbanization patterns.  相似文献   

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