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1.
Jalal Samia Arnaud Temme Arnold K. Bregt Jakob Wallinga John Stuiver Fausto Guzzetti Francesca Ardizzone Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144
Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling. 相似文献
2.
Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans. 相似文献
3.
Regional-scale landslide activity and landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Ranjan Kumar Dahal 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(12):5145-5164
Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping is a fundamental procedure for geo-disaster management in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Recently, various landslide susceptibility zonation models have been introduced in Nepal with diverse approaches of assessment. However, validation is still a problem. Additionally, the role of various predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity is still not well understood in the Nepal Himalaya. To address these issues of susceptibility zonation and landslide activity, about 4,000 km2 area of central Nepal was selected for regional-scale assessment of landslide activity and susceptibility zonation mapping. In total, 655 new landslides and 9,229 old landslides were identified with the study area with the help of satellite images, aerial photographs, field data and available reports. The old landslide inventory was “blind landslide database” and could not explain the particular rainfall event responsible for the particular landslide. But considering size of the landslide, blind landslide inventory was reclassified into two databases: short-duration high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory and long-duration low-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory. These landslide inventory maps were considered as proxy maps of multiple rainfall event-based landslide inventories. Similarly, all 9,884 landslides were considered for the activity assessment of predisposing causative parameters. For the Nepal Himalaya, slope, slope aspect, geology and road construction activity (anthropogenic cause) were identified as most affective predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity. For susceptibility zonation, multivariate approach was considered and two proxy rainfall event-based landslide databases were used for the logistic regression modelling, while a relatively recent landslide database was used in validation. Two event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare the final susceptibility zonation map and its prediction rate was found to be more than 82 %. From this work, it is concluded that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is very appropriate and reliable. The results of this research contribute to a significant improvement in landslide inventory preparation procedure, susceptibility zonation mapping approaches as well as role of various predisposing causative parameters for the landslide activity. 相似文献
4.
Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide
susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
M. Van Den Eeckhaut J. Hervás C. Jaedicke J.-P. Malet L. Montanarella F. Nadim 《Landslides》2012,9(3):357-369
In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available. 相似文献
5.
Karl Vonder Linden 《Engineering Geology》1989,27(1-4):301-373
The Portuguese Bend landslide, in coastal southern California, is an active, slow-moving mass of blocks and debris that extends from the shoreline to moderate altitudes along part of the southerly margin of the Palos Verdes Hills. These hills form a peninsula that is underlain by Cenozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks draped anticlinally over a core of Mesozoic schist. In the southerly parts of the peninsula, inherently weak units in the Altamira Shale Member of the Miocene Monterey Formation dip seaward in general concordance with the ground surface. Ground failure has been widespread in this area. It evidently began in mid- to late-Pleistocene time, and it has continued intermittently to the present.
The Portuguese Bend landslide represents a reactivation of movement of the eastern part of a complex of prehistoric landslides occupying an area of approximately two square miles. This latest episode of movement began in 1956, presumably in response to placement of fill during a road construction project. The active slide subsequently was enlarged by sequential failure of adjoining blocks of ground, and by September 1969 about 54,500,000 metric tons of debris was slowly moving downslope in an area of approximately 104 ha. Movement has been continuous since recent failure began in 1956, although the velocity of the active slide decreased markedly after that year. Between 1962 and 1972 the velocity fluctuated only slightly about an average value of about 1 cm per day.
The active slide is an irregular prism, roughly triangular in plan view. The southern side of the triangle trends approximately 1100 m east-west along a stretch of shoreline that essentially coincides with the toe of the slide. The other two sides of the triangle trend northeast and northwest from the ends of the toe and meet about 1200 m north of the shoreline. The thickness of the moving mass differs considerably from one place to another, reflecting both topographic irregularities and major undulations in the underlying surface of movement. The maximum thickness is approximately 75 m.
Movement is occurring along a distinct basal failure surface. The eastern part of the slide is underlain by bedrock, and is bordered by bedrock with a general structure that limits further deep-seated propagation of failure to the east and northeast. In contrast, the western part of the slide is underlain and bordered by extensive ancient landslide deposits that are marginally stable. Further encroachment of the active slide westward and northwestward into these materials was viewed as a distinct possibility at the time the dissertation was prepared and has occurred since then.
Continued movement of the Portuguese Bend landslide since 1956 has been due to four main factors. A rise in the water table during the period 1957–1968 has been documented in the northwestern part of the moving mass and is attributable mainly to infiltration of surface runoff entering numerous open fissures that cut the surface of the slide. The toe of the active slide daylights along the shoreline and is subjected to storm-wave erosion, so that any natural build-up of resisting forces is prevented in this area. The redistribution of mass as the slide has moved along an undulatory failure surface has been responsible for local fluctuations in the driving and resisting forces. Finally, smoothing of irregularities in the failure surface by the moving slide mass must have decreased some of the forces resisting movement. 相似文献
6.
本文发展了一种基于分形统计的滑坡易发程度评价方法,该方法仅使用已有的滑坡数据,首先通过分形统计获得滑坡分布的分形丛集关系,再通过GIS的空间操作与分析生成滑坡易发程度区划图。提出一种对滑坡易发程度区划图的可信度和预测效果进行评价的方法。本文介绍了这些方法及其在浙江地区应用的结果。 相似文献
7.
A new method based on the chaos theory is used to assess the evolution process of a slope system. The method is applied to
the Xintan landslide and the results show: (1) the slope movement is a complex process of the slope going in and out of the
stable and chaotic state; (2) the method reveals the evolution process of the slope pointing to the slope failure while the
observed movement shows a simple monotonic increase with time; (3) the method is not sufficiently mature to precisely predict
the time of failure but it has potential for improvement with further research and more field data for analysis. 相似文献
8.
Junqi Liu Huiming Tang Junqiang Zhang Tingting Shi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(10):3847-3856
As the global research topic, geological disasters have led to huge losses around the world yearly. In this paper, three-dimensional (3D) visualization is used as a technical method to build the 3D geological model of the HuangTuPo (HTP) landslide, and the 3D model of large field test base located in the HTP landslide, and the 3D regional geological model. These models make the landslide research digitized and transparent. Meanwhile, the preliminary studies were carried out: the comprehensive utilization of multiple scales and multiple categories of data—by “Double Center”, and the 3D data integration from region to point of disasters—by the component technology, and the transparent design and construction of disaster research—by 3D model shearing. Through these methods, the surface topography and the underground geological structure of landslide can be displayed as transparent as glass, and the virtual simulation on the results of underground engineering can be carried out in advance, providing guidance for engineering design and construction. 相似文献
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10.
Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence: Taipingshan landslide triggered by Typhoon Saola 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
This paper presents a case study of the Taipingshan landslide, which was triggered by Typhoon Saola in 2012. Taipingshan villa is one of the most famous scenic locations within the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area in northern Taiwan. Since the early 1990s, evidence of recent landslide activity appeared throughout the Taipingshan villa and included features such as tension cracks, ground settlement, and cracking in manmade structures. In response, a series of geological investigations and in-site/laboratory tests were conducted in 2010 to estimate slope stability and predict critical rainfall thresholds (event accumulated rainfall) for landslide activity. Results revealed that the critical rainfall threshold for the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area is 1765 mm. In 2012, that threshold was tested when Typhoon Saola brought tremendous rainfall to northern and eastern Taiwan and triggered activity along the main scarp of sliding mass B located near the History Exhibition Hall. According to in situ extensometer readings and on-site precipitation data, the extensometer was severed at an accumulated rainfall 1694 mm. Field monitoring data during the typhoon event are in good agreement with the rainfall threshold. These preliminary results suggest that the threshold may be useful for assessing the rainfall threshold of other landslides and a good reference for establishing early warning systems for landslides. 相似文献
11.
On 15 May 1991, a landslide occurred at Gacharage Village in the Murang'a District of Kenya; it buried a house near the toe of a cliff, killing all eight residents in their sleep. The principal determining factors of the slide were a high, mechanically unstable slope of deeply weathered volcanic soil and a high sorption capacity of the surface soil layer. The slide was triggered by rapid saturation of the soil following a heavy downpour. Based on field investigations and laboratory studies, this paper discusses the physical properties and environmental factors that affected slope stability at Murang'a. It also points out the economic and social impact of landslides in the region and suggests remedial measures. 相似文献
12.
Breaching parameters of landslide dams 总被引：11，自引：5，他引：6
Landslide dams pose enormous risks to the public because of the potentially catastrophic floods generated by breaching of
such dams. The need to better understand the threats of landslide dams raises questions about the proper estimation of breaching
parameters (breach size, breaching duration, and peak outflow rate) of landslide dams and the feasibility of applying models
for estimating the breaching parameters of man-made earthen dams to landslide dams. This paper aims to answer these two questions.
In this study, a database of 1,239 landslide dams, including 257 cases formed during the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,
has been compiled. Based on records of 52 landslide dam cases with breaching information in the database, empirical models
for estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams are developed. A comparison study between landslide dams and man-made
earth and rockfill dams is conducted, which shows that the models for man-made earth and rockfill dams are not suitable for
estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams. Two case studies are presented to show the application of the set of
empirical models developed in this paper. 相似文献
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14.
Global landslide and avalanche hotspots 总被引：6，自引：7，他引：6
Farrokh Nadim Oddvar Kjekstad Pascal Peduzzi Christian Herold Christian Jaedicke 《Landslides》2006,3(2):159-173
Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km2 was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales. 相似文献
15.
Three-dimensional mapping of a landslide using a multi-geophysical approach: the Quesnel Forks landslide 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
A landslide located on the Quesnel River in British Columbia, Canada is used as a case study to demonstrate the utility of a multi-geophysical approach to subsurface mapping of unstable slopes. Ground penetrating radar (GPR), direct current (DC) resistivity and seismic reflection and refraction surveys were conducted over the landslide and adjacent terrain. Geophysical data were interpreted based on stratigraphic and geomorphologic observations, including the use of digital terrain models (DTMs), and then integrated into a 3-dimensional model. GPR surveys yielded high-resolution data that were correlated with stratigraphic units to a maximum depth of 25 m. DC electrical resistivity offered limited data on specific units but was effective for resolving stratigraphic relationships between units to a maximum depth of 40 m. Seismic surveys were primarily used to obtain unit boundaries up to a depth of >80 m. Surfaces of rupture and separation were successfully identified by GPR and DC electrical resistivity techniques. 相似文献
16.
The large landslide, Kostanjek, on the southern slopes of the mountain, Zagreba
ka Gora, in the western suburb of Zagreb was activated in 1963 after some 2.1 × 106 m3 of marl for the cement factory, Croatia, was excavated at the foot of the slope. The geological features (sinclinal structure, faults, hydrogeological conditions, extension of the “Tripoli” marl strata) which had an important role in the formation of the slide, as well as the means of marl exploitation by means of mass blasting, are presented in the paper. The Kostanjek slide involves an urbanized area of some 100 ha. It is estimated that a sliding mass of some 32 × 106 m3 is involved, with a maximum depth of 90 m. Sliding occurs in three levels. The displacements of the surface are 3–6 m. The excavation of marl was stopped in 1988, when a total of 5.3 × 106 m3 of material was excavated. Since then the magnitude of surface displacement per year has decreased. The Kostanjek slide is still active. It is estimated that natural stabilization will take a long time, probably decades. Analyses of possible measures for the stabilization of movements suggested that preventive drainage with continuous observation of the slide is most suitable. 相似文献
17.
Modeling of rainfall-triggered shallow landslide 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5
By integrating hydrological modeling with the infinite slope stability analysis, a rainfall-triggered shallow landslide model was developed by Iverson (Water Resour Res 36:1897-1910, 2000). In Iverson’s model, the infiltration capacity is assumed to be equivalent to the saturated hydraulic conductivity for finding pressure heads analytically. However, for general infiltration process, the infiltration capacity should vary with time during the period of rain, and the infiltration rate is significantly related to the variable infiltration capacity. To avoid the unrealistically high pressure heads, Iverson employed the beta-line correction by specifying that the simulated pressure heads cannot exceed those given by the beta line. In this study, the suitability of constant infiltration capacity together with the beta-line correction for hydrological modeling and landslide modeling of hillslope subjected to a rainfall is examined. By amending the boundary condition at ground surface of hillslope in Iverson’s model, the modified Iverson’s model with considering general infiltration process is developed to conduct this examination. The results show that the unrealistically high pressure heads from Iverson’s model occur due to the overestimation of infiltration rate induced from the assumption that the infiltration capacity is identical to the saturated hydraulic conductivity. Considering with the general infiltration process, the modified Iverson’s model gives acceptable results. In addition, even though the beta-line correction is applied, the Iverson’s model still produces greater simulated pressure heads and overestimates soil failure potential as compared with the modified Iverson’s model. Therefore, for assessing rainfall-triggered shallow landslide, the use of constant infiltration capacity together with the beta-line correction needs to be replaced by the consideration of general infiltration process. 相似文献
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20.
降雨使坡内地下水位上升,坡体的基质吸力和暂态孔隙水压力会随着降雨过程和时间呈现不同的变化趋势。采用抗滑桩、挡墙等工程防治后,针对滑坡体滑带土的性质变化以及抗滑结构的设置是否会影响到滑坡体的自然排水通道,导致坡体地下水位的抬升,从而影响滑坡防治效果等问题进行了研究。以鹰厦线K290滑坡为主线,通过开展滑坡饱和-非饱和渗流模型试验与数值分析,探讨了降雨入渗及地下水位变化下滑坡体及滑带土体积含水率与基质吸力的变化规律,以及其对滑坡防治前后坡体渗流场的影响。在此基础上,探讨了滑带土基质吸力对抗剪强度的贡献。研究表明：防治前后滑坡体及滑带土基质吸力受降雨强度等条件影响明显,不同深度处滑带土基质吸力变化呈现不同的变化规律,在土质滑坡的防治中应考虑抗滑桩的布置对滑带土性质的影响。 相似文献