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1.
For the first time in history, the majority of the world population now lives in cities. Global urbanization will continue at high speed; the world's urban population is projected to increase by more than 3 billion people between 2010 and 2050. Some of this increase will be the result of high urban fertility rates and reclassification of rural land into urban areas, but a significant portion of future urbanization will be caused by rural-to-urban migration. This migration is expected to be particularly prevalent in countries and regions most affected by the changing climate. While urban populations generally enjoy a higher quality of life, many cities in the developing world have large slums with populations that are largely excluded from access to resources, jobs, and public services. In the environmental security literature, great rural resource scarcity, causing rural to urban migration, is seen as an important source of violent conflict. This study investigates how population growth affects patterns of public unrest in urban centers within the context of crucial intervening factors like democracy, poverty, economic shocks. It utilizes a newly collected event dataset of urban social disturbance covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since 1960. The empirical analysis provides little support for the notion that high and increasing urban population pressure leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder. Instead, we find that urban disorder is primarily associated with a lack of consistent political institutions, economic shocks, and ongoing civil conflict. 相似文献
2.
Research on urban climate action has identified a broad range of potential factors explaining why and how local governments decide to tackle climate change. However, empirical evidence linking such factors in order to explain actual urban climate action has so far been mixed. To address this roadblock, our paper relies on a novel approach, postulating that different configurations of factors may lead to the same outcome (“equifinality”), through a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). It is based on an available data set of local climate mitigation plans in 885 European cities. We find that urban climate action is systematically associated with four qualitatively different configurations of factors, each with its own consistent narrative (“networker cities”, “green cities”, “lighthouse cities”, “fundraising cities”). Crucially, some factors play a positive role in some configurations, a negative in others, and no role in further configurations (e.g., whether a city is located in a country with supportive national climate policies). This confirms that there is no single explanation for urban climate action. Achieving greater robustness in empirical research about urban climate action may thus require a shift, both conceptual and methodological, to the interactions between factors, allowing for different explanations in different contexts. 相似文献
3.
《Global Environmental Change》2005,15(3):238-252
This research examines the impact of the farmland protection policy institutionalized for China's paddy field conversion in the mid-1990s. This paper demonstrates an integrated research method for studying land use-cover changes from the perspective of the interactions between policy changes and socioeconomic factors. The integrated method deploys remote sensing to obtain accurate measures of paddy field changes and applies multiple regression analysis to explore the interactions between paddy field change and socioeconomic factors. It constructs a policy-determined categorical regression analysis to investigate whether the policy change impacts paddy field conversion and how the policy interacts with other socioeconomic factors in affecting paddy field losses. A geographic information system is deployed to interpret the spatial patterns of the interactions. The case study in Wuxian City (Jiangsu Province) concludes that there is a distinct policy shift between 1990–1995 and 1995–2000. The policy of regulating farmland losses practiced in the mid-1990s has a significant role of slowing down paddy field conversion. But the success has been partial and was largely compromised in the rural areas due to the compounding forces of policies to promote rapid economic growth and better living standards. Moreover, continued rural to urban migration, rural economic development and rapid urban expansion represent the primary forces that lead to the conversion of paddy fields into non-agricultural uses. 相似文献
4.
There are compelling reasons for policy makers to be interested in the low-carbon agenda. More than half of the world's population lives in, and more than half of the world's economic output comes from, cities. Up to 70% of global carbon emissions can also be attributed to consumption that takes place in cities. Recent research has shown that cost-effective investments in low-carbon options could deliver a 40% reduction in GHG emissions from cities by 2020, while also providing wider economic benefits such as enhanced competitiveness and increased employment. As yet, however, investments in low-carbon cities have not been made at scale due mainly to the scale of the finance required, local government budgetary constraints, and perceptions about their costs and benefits. With a focus on the UK, a contemporary account is provided of what local authorities see as the major financial risks associated with funding low-carbon cities. Practical proposals – which also have more general relevance to the future financing of low-carbon cities around the world – are offered on how local authorities, in conjunction with central government, the private sector, and institutional investors, can effectively manage these risks. Policy relevance Cities house more than half of the world's population, generate more than half of the world's economic output, and produce between 40% and 70% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions. In the UK, 70% of such emissions are under the influence of its local authorities. Thus, one of the key public policy challenges for the low-carbon transition is how it should be financed. There are several obstacles and related risks to this transition, including financial and legal obstacles and the differing views and perceptions of stakeholders. These can be attenuated, somewhat, by national government support at scale, local authority leadership, and cooperation between other authorities and the private sector, and the development of tools and guidance to reduce transaction costs. 相似文献
5.
利用气象观测、高分辨率城市地理信息和卫星遥感数据,通过将气象类指标与城市类指标相结合,开展了北京地区风环境容量指标和区划的探索性研究。结果表明：水平风速和大气混合层厚度两个指标在空间上均呈北部和东部地区高、中心城区和西南地区低的特征;中心城核心区和卫星城的地表粗糙度长度较高,二环内老城区建筑多为平房,地表粗糙度长度小于二环外其他中心城区,形成较明显的空心环状结构;在中心城区外的植被地区,北部和西部山区粗糙度长度明显高于平原区;加权综合水平风速、大气混合层厚度和地表粗糙度长度3个指标,计算不同等级风环境容量指数阈值,在空间上西南地区的房山、门头沟、海淀、石景山、丰台以及中心城区的东城和西城等地风环境容量指数较低,其中二环至四环范围是风环境容量指数最低区域,这与北京经济、金融和商业中心空间分布一致;延庆、怀柔、密云的北部以及通州的绝大部分地区为风环境容量指数高值区,其他平原区多为中等风环境容量指数区。 相似文献
6.
In recent years, an increasing number of local governments are recognizing the impact of climate change on different urban sectors. This has led many to pursue climate adaptation planning, seeking to achieve preparedness through reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience of populations, assets, and municipal operations. Although cities typically share these common goals, many are electing to pursue different planning approaches. In this paper, we examine three climate adaptation planning approaches in the cities of Quito (Ecuador), Surat (India), and Durban (South Africa) and analyze the trade-offs associated with different planning pathways and different forms of stakeholder involvement. We assess the potentials and limitations of these different approaches, including their implications for enhancing government integration and coordination, promoting participation and adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups, and facilitating overall urban resilience. We find that, in order to gain widespread commitment on adaptation, sustained political leadership from the top, departmental engagement, and continued involvement from a variety of stakeholders are integral to effective decision-making and institutionalization of programs in the long run. When climate adaptation is advanced with a focus on learning, awareness, and capacity building, the process will likely lead to more sustained, legitimate, and comprehensive adaptation plans and policies that enhance the resilience of the most affected urban areas and residents. 相似文献
7.
Climate change and land degradation result in decreasing yields and crop failures in Northern Ghana and have caused further impoverishment of Ghana’s poorest region. Farmers have diversified their livelihoods to adapt to uncertain environmental conditions in various ways. While traditionally a diversification of the production and migration were the prime means of adaptation, many farmers have started to intensify their production by adopting shallow groundwater irrigation for vegetable gardening for Ghana’s urban markets. This has helped to cope with a changing environment, ameliorated poverty and reversed rural–urban migration, while the local hydrology curbed an over-exploitation of groundwater resources, commonly associated with an uncontrolled farmer-driven expansion of groundwater irrigation. This research confirms that farmer-driven small-scale irrigation can play an important role in the process of climate change adaptation. However, while farmers tried to integrate in the larger economy, they have become subject to market failures that in their essence are caused by unfair and unpredictable patterns of global trade. It is this double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalization that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed. Many convincing arguments call for the revision of some of the most unfair and devastating economic practices; however, the need to enhance adaptive capacity towards global climate change for poor parts of the population in the south should be added to the discussion. 相似文献
8.
Pao-Yu Oei 《Climate Policy》2019,19(1):73-91
Continued global action on climate change has major consequences for fossil fuel markets, especially for coal as the most carbon-intensive fuel. This article summarizes current market developments in the most important coal-producing and coal-consuming countries, resulting in a critical qualitative assessment of prospects for future coal exports. Colombia, as the world’s fourth largest exporter, is strongly affected by these global trends, with more than 90% of its production being exported. Market analysis finds Colombia in a strong competitive position, owing to its low production costs and high coal quality. Nevertheless, market trends and enhanced climate policies suggest a gloomy outlook for future exports. Increasing competition on the Atlantic as well as Pacific market will keep coal prices low and continue pressure on mining companies. Increasing numbers of filed bankruptcies and lay-offs might be just the beginning of a carbon bubble devaluing fossil fuel investments and leaving them stranded. Colombia largely supplies European and Mediterranean consumers but also delivers some quantities to the US Gulf Coast, and to Central and South America. Future coal demand in most of these countries will continue to decline in the next decades. Newly constructed power plants in emerging economies (India, China) are unlikely to compensate for this downturn owing to increasing domestic supply and decreasing demand. Therefore, maintaining or even increasing mining volumes in Colombia should be re-evaluated, taking into account new economic realities as well as local externalities. Ignoring these risks could lead to additional stranded investments, aggravating the local resource curse and hampering sustainable economic development.Key policy insights
The climate policies of most of Colombia’s traditional trade partners target steam coal as the more emission-intensive fossil fuel, with many countries implementing or considering a coal phase-out.
Coal exporters should re-evaluate their operations and new investments taking into account this new policy environment.
To prevent a race to the bottom among coal producers that would favour weak regulation, climate policy makers should also consider the local social and external costs of coal mining, including on health and the local environment.
9.
This paper reviews the complex impact of climate change on gender relations and associated vulnerability on the Eastern Gangetic Plains of Nepal and India. Field research has identified that gendered vulnerability to climate change is intricately connected to local and macro level political economic processes. Rather than being a single driver of change, climate is one among several stresses on agriculture, alongside a broader set of non-climatic processes. While these pressures are linked to large scale political–economic processes, the response on the ground is mediated by the local level relations of class and caste, creating stratified patterns of vulnerability. The primary form of gendered vulnerability in the context of agrarian stress emerges from male out-migration, which has affected the distribution of labour and resources. While migration occurs amongst all socio-economic groups, women from marginal farmer and tenant households are most vulnerable. While the causes of migration are only indirectly associated with climate change, migration itself is rendering women who are left behind from marginal households, more vulnerable to ecological shocks such as droughts due to the sporadic flow of income and their reduced capacity for investment in off-farm activities. It is clear that policies and initiatives to address climate change in stratified social formations such as the Eastern Gangetic Plains, will be ineffective without addressing the deeper structural intersections between class, caste and gender. 相似文献
10.
11.
徐一剑 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(1):88-98
我国沿海地区战略地位十分重要,并呈现“区域发展沿海化,沿海城市临海化”的趋势,但同时却面临着全球气候变化引起的海平面上升、极端气候灾害频发等诸多严峻挑战。为在战略层面解决我国向海发展的战略与全球气候变化的矛盾与冲突,文中提出了我国沿海城市应对气候变化的发展战略：确定了总体目标是建设适合我国国情的沿海气候弹性城市,提出了“规划引领、陆海统筹、主动适应、积极减排、适度冗余、增加弹性”的应对原则,明确了强化城市规划管控、控制空间发展方向、严控围填海造地、优化城市空间布局、提高规划设计标准、加强海岸防护设施、夯实城市基础设施和提升监测预警应急等8项重点任务。 相似文献
12.
The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes in part because they concentrate many activities,
people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an important scale for assessment and understanding of climate
change impacts. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for urban economic impact assessment of climate
change. The focus of the paper is on model-based analysis of future scenarios, including a framing of uncertainty for these
projections, as one valuable input into the decision-making process. The paper highlights the main assessment difficulties,
methods and tools, and selected examples across these areas. A number of challenges are unique to climate change impact assessment
and others are unique to the problem of working at local scales. The paper also identifies the need for additional research,
including the need for more integrated and systemic approaches to address climate change as a part of the urban development
challenge as well as the need to assess the economic impacts of climate change and response policy at local scale. 相似文献
13.
Cities in the USA engage in action on climate change, even as the federal government remains resistant to comprehensive climate policy. While experts generally agree that local level adaptation and mitigation policies are critical to avoiding the worst climate impacts, the degree to which cities communicate climate change issues to their constituents has yet to be fully explored. In this article, we evaluate how US cities communicate climate change-related issues, problems, and policies. We use a computer-assisted approach to evaluate climate change efforts by cities by examining the full text of press releases of 82 large cities in the USA. We first identify who discusses climate change, finding that many large cities in the USA address climate change in their public communication. Second, we examine the content of these discussions. Many cities discuss weather-related concerns in conjunction with broad collaborative efforts to address global warming, while city-based policy discussions focus more on energy and transportation efforts. Third, we evaluate the local factors associated with these discussions. We find that the city’s climate vulnerability is particularly influential in shaping the level and timing of climatic communication. 相似文献
14.
15.
URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CASE OF FOUR LARGE CITIES OF TURKEY 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The growing interest in urbanization problems is stimulating detailed studies of their effects on local climate change in the developed world. The absence of such studies in developing countries is restricting many decisions to be made and applied by policymakers. In one developing country, Turkey, results of the study of four urban stations and their neighboring rural sites for the 1951-1990 time period reveal that there is a shift towards the warmer side in the frequency distributions of daily minimum and 21.00 hr temperature difference series. This shift is an indication of urban heat island. The maximum urban heat island intensity trend that is obtained from the temperature differences database agrees well with Oke's (1973) formula for European cities. Seasonal analysis of individual 21.00 hr temperature series suggests that the regional warming is strongest in spring and weakest in autumn and winter. Urban warming is detected to be more or less equally distributed over the year wi th a slight increase in the autumn months. The Mann-Kendall trend test is applied to the temperature difference series, and the urban heat island effect is found to be significant in all urban sites. On the other hand, almost no significant urban effect on precipitation can be detected. 相似文献
16.
Research on urban vulnerability has grown considerably during recent years, yet consists primarily of case studies based on conflicting theories and paradigms. Assessing urban vulnerability is also generally considered to be context-dependent. We argue, however, that it is possible to identify some common patterns of vulnerability across urban centers and research paradigms and these commonalities hold potential for the development of a common set of tools to enhance response capacity within multiple contexts. To test this idea we conduct an analysis of 54 papers on urban vulnerability to temperature-related hazards, covering 222 urban areas in all regions of the world. The originality of this effort is in the combination of a standard metaanalysis with a meta-knowledge approach that allows us not only to integrate and summarize results across many studies, but also to identify trends in the literature and examine differences in methodology, theoretical frameworks and causation narratives and thereby to compare “apples to oranges.” We find that the vast majority of papers examining urban vulnerability to temperature-related hazards come from an urban vulnerability as impact approach, and cities from middle and low income countries are understudied. One of the challenges facing scholarship on urban vulnerability is to supplement the emphasis on disciplinary boxes (e.g., temperature–mortality relationships) with an interdisciplinary and integrated approach to adaptive capacity and structural drivers of differences in vulnerability. 相似文献
17.
Effective policies for dealing with anticipated climatic changes must reflect the two-way interactions between climate, forests and society. Considerable analysis has focused on one aspect of forests - timber production - at a local and regional scale, but no fully integrated global studies have been conducted. The appropriate ecological and economic models appear to be available to do so. Nontimber aspects of forests dominate the social values provided by many forests, especially remote or unmanaged lands where the impacts of climatic change are apt to be most significant. Policy questions related to these issues and lands are much less well understood. Policy options related to afforestation are well studied, but other ways the forest sector can help ameliorate climatic change merit more extensive analysis. Promising possibilities include carbon taxes to influence the management of extant forests, and materials policies to lengthen the life of wood products or to encourage the substitution of CO2-fixing wood products for ones manufactured from less benign materials. 相似文献
18.
Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Jan Corfee-Morlot Ian Cochran Stéphane Hallegatte Pierre-Jonathan Teasdale 《Climatic change》2011,104(1):169-197
Despite a flurry of activity in cities on climate change and growing interest in the research community, climate policy at
city-scale remains fragmented and basic tools to facilitate good decision-making are lacking. This paper draws on an interdisciplinary
literature review to establish a multilevel risk governance conceptual framework. It situates the local adaptation policy
challenge and action within this to explore a range of institutional questions associated with strengthening local adaptation
and related functions of local government. It highlights the value of institutional design to include analytic-deliberative
practice, focusing on one possible key tool to support local decision-making—that of boundary organizations to facilitate
local science-policy assessment. After exploring a number of examples of boundary organisations in place today, the authors
conclude that a number of institutional models are valid. A common feature across the different approaches is the establishment
of a science-policy competence through active deliberation and shared analysis engaging experts and decision-makers in an
iterative exchange of information. Important features that vary include the geographic scope of operation and the origin of
funding, the level and form of engagement of different actors, and the relationship with “producers” of scientific information.
National and sub-national (regional) governments may play a key role to provide financial and technical assistance to support
the creation of such boundary organizations with an explicit mandate to operate at local levels; in turn, in a number of instances
boundary organizations have been shown to be able to facilitate local partnerships, engagement and decision-making on adaptation.
While the agenda for multi-level governance of climate change is inevitably much broader than this, first steps by national
governments to work with sub-national governments, urban authorities and other stakeholders to advance capacity in this area
could be an important step for local adaptation policy agenda. 相似文献
19.
M. J. Best 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,84(1-3):47-55
Summary The current resolution of operational weather forecast model is not sufficient in general to explicitly resolve even the major
cities of the World. As a consequence, urban areas have traditionally been neglected in such models. The introduction of tiled
land surface models has enabled sub-gridscale landuse to be modelled, and hence has provided the opportunity to model cities
within weather forecast models. However, to date there has been little effort made within the operational weather forecast
community.
At present there is only one operational centre that explicitly resolves urban areas. This centre includes a simple urban
scheme within its mesoscale and global models, which has been shown to have a positive impact on the forecast. However, with
the recent developments within urban meteorology there are now a variety of urban schemes, which vary in their complexity
and parameter requirements, that would be suitable for operational weather forecast models. So it is likely that more operational
models, and in particular mesoscale models, will include urban areas in the near future.
With the majority of the World‘s population living in cities, the resilience of these cities to the impacts of climate change
is also becoming of increasing interest. This means that urban areas will have to be included within climate change simulations,
as well as weather forecast simulations, in the future. At present, only one climate change model has included a parametrisation
for urban areas. However, this is likely to increase if work in this area grows rapidly. 相似文献
20.
Michael Grubb 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):299-301
A growing body of literature suggests that an economic case may exist for investment in large-scale climate change mitigation. At the same time, however, investment is persistently falling well short of the levels required to prevent dangerous climate change, suggesting that economically attractive mitigation opportunities are being missed. To understand whether and where these opportunities exist, this article contrasts macro-level analyses of climate finance with micro-level bottom-up analyses of the scale and composition of low-carbon investment opportunities in four case study developing world cities. This analysis finds that there are significant opportunities to redirect existing finance streams towards more cost-effective, lower-carbon options. This would mobilize substantial new investment in climate mitigation. Two key explanations are proposed for the failure to exploit these opportunities. First, the composition of cost-effective measures is highly context-specific, varying from place to place and sector to sector. Macro-level analyses of climate finance flows are therefore poor indicators of the micro-level landscape for low-carbon investment. Specific local research is therefore needed to understand the opportunities for cost-effective mitigation at that level. Second, many opportunities require enabling governance arrangements that are not currently in place. Mobilizing new low-carbon investment and closing the ‘climate finance gap' therefore requires attention to policy frameworks and financing mechanisms that can facilitate the exploitation of cost-effective low-carbon options.Policy relevanceThe importance of increasing investment in climate mitigation, especially in developing nations, is well established. This article scrutinizes four city-level studies of the scope for cost-effective low-carbon investment, and finds that significant opportunities are not being exploited in developing world cities. Enabling governance structures may help to mainstream climate considerations into investments by local actors (households, businesses and government agencies). While climate finance distributed through international bodies such as the Green Climate Fund may not always be a suitable vehicle to invest directly in disaggregated, local-level measures, it can provide the incentives to develop these governance arrangements. 相似文献