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In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example. 相似文献
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In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example. 相似文献
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Richard B. Olsen 《Ocean Engineering》1987,14(6)
Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is used in conjunction with Markov chains to generate simultaneous current time series at several depths with a random walk model. Duration statistics and probability distributions for EOF modes obtained from real data are used to generate transition probability matrices for the random walk model. New time series of EOF modes are generated, and then combined to produce current time series. The technique has been tested on data from Haltenbanken. Statistical properties of real and simulated time series were compared. Results indicate that the model is acceptable as a tool in simulating current time series to be used in offshore operation models. 相似文献
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A statistical analysis of non-linear random waves 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
R. S. Langley 《Ocean Engineering》1987,14(5)
A statistical analysis of unidirectional non-linear random waves is presented which is based on second-order random wave theory. The analysis technique is similar to a method which is available for the statistical analysis of a two-term Volterra series. It is shown that the statistical problem can be reduced to that of finding the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of two real symmetric matrices, from which the cumulants, the characteristic function, and the probability density function of the surface elevation can be found. Various numerical examples are considered, and the possibility of extending the technique to deal with spreading seas is discussed. 相似文献
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B. L. Berry 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2011,47(7):848-880
Stable oscillations of heliogeophysical and other natural processes are generated within the solar system (SS) by interactions
between the gravitational fields of the Sun, planets, and their satellites. The resonant periods of the SS are well described
by a geometrical progression similar to a sound series with 32 notes in an octave. A comparison of the members of this geometrical
progression to the orbital and rotational periods of the planets and the Moon and to the orbital periods of Jupiter’s satellites
shows that the discovered regular pattern in the distribution of the motion periods of SS bodies holds with a 95% probability.
Numerous natural periods of solar activity, interplanetary magnetic fields, the Earth’s magnetic field and rotational speed,
movement of the Earth’s poles, seismic activity, and other terrestrial processes in the range of 10−4–106 years are also consistent with the members of this geometrical progression. Heliogeophysical oscillations have a common external
origin, and their periods often coincide with one another. The amplitudes of the oscillations of terrestrial processes depend
on the oscillations in solar activity, lunar-solar tidal forces, and the Earth’s rotational speed, and on the interactions
of geophysical processes. The existence of common external periods makes it possible to find significant correlations between
terrestrial processes that appear to have no cause and effect relationships, e.g., between global air temperatures and magnitudes
of regional earthquakes over a 600-year interval. These correlations testify to the influence of changes in the Earth’s rotational
speed on tectonic and climatic processes and provide additional proof for the feasibility of the harmonic model of Northern
Hemisphere temperatures. The parameters of stable oscillations that are components of global seismicity harmonic models and
those of air temperatures and other natural processes are found from the respective simulated or observed time series. These
models permit long-term forecasts of terrestrial and solar processes. The paper gives examples of successful forecasts of
global seismicity in 2005–2010 and hazardous events of various origin in 1986, 1995, 2005, 2008, and 2010. Hazardous events
are expected to intensify in 2011/2012, 2016/2017, 2024, and 2028/2029. The next economic crisis is expected in 2029 ± 1. 相似文献
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Based on the second-order solutions obtained for the three-dimensional weakly nonlinear random waves propagating over a steady uniform current in finite water depth, the joint statistical distribution of the velocity and acceleration of the fluid particle in the current direction is derived using the characteristic function expansion method. From the joint distribution and the Morison equation, the theoretical distributions of drag forces, inertia forces and total random forces caused by waves propagating over a steady uniform current are determined. The distribution of inertia forces is Gaussian as that derived using the linear wave model, whereas the distributions of drag forces and total random forces deviate slightly from those derived utilizing the linear wave model. The distributions presented can be determined by the wave number spectrum of ocean waves, current speed and the second order wave–wave and wave–current interactions. As an illustrative example, for fully developed deep ocean waves, the parameters appeared in the distributions near still water level are calculated for various wind speeds and current speeds by using Donelan–Pierson–Banner spectrum and the effects of the current and the nonlinearity of ocean waves on the distribution are studied. 相似文献
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Based on the second-order random wave theory, the joint statistical distribution of the horizontal velocity and acceleration is derived using the characteristic function expansion method. From the joint distribution and the Morison equation, the theoretical distributions of drag forces, inertia forces and total random wave forces are determined. The distribution of inertia forces is Gaussian as that derived using the linear wave model, whereas the distributions of drag forces and total random forces deviate slightly from those derived utilizing the linear wave model. It is found that the distribution of wave forces depends solely on the frequency spectrum of sea waves associated with the first order approximation and the second order wave–wave interaction. 相似文献
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Based on the second-order random wave solutions of water wave equations in tinite water depth, statistical distributions of the depth-integrated local horizontal momentum components are derived by use of the characteristic function expansion method. The parameters involved in the distributions can be all detemained by the water depth and the wavenumber spectrum of ocean waves. As an illustrative example, a fully developed wind-generated sea is considered and the parameters are calculated for typical wind speeds and water depths by means of the Donelan and Pierson spectrum. The effects of nonlinearity and water depth on the distributions are also investigated. 相似文献
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A methodology for acoustic seafloor classification 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A seafloor classification methodology, based on a parameterization of the reverberation probability density function in conjunction with neural network classifiers, is evaluated through computer simulations. Different seafloor provides are represented by a number of scatterer distributions exhibiting various degrees of departure from the nominal Poisson distribution. Using a computer simulation program, these distributions were insonified at different spatial scales by varying the transmitted pulse length. The statistical signature obtained consists of reverberation kurtosis estimates as a function of pulse length. Two neural network classifiers are presented with the task of discriminating among the various scatterer distributions based on obtained acoustic signatures. The results indicate that this approach offers considerable promise for practical, realizable solutions to the problem of remote seafloor classification 相似文献
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本文建立了大亚湾风暴潮涌浪传播数学模型,以任意多边形离散计算海区,每一多边形构成单元,以波浪运动学和动力学守恒方程模拟单元内能量传递,以风暴潮过程模拟边界入射波高过程,用风暴潮涌浪传播基本方程和波能缓坡方程结合模拟湾口巨浪向湾内的传播过程。通过分析大亚湾不同种类岸线反射系数的概率分布,并结合实测波高对模型进行率定,最终确定模型参数。将大亚湾特征点计算波高与统计推荐波高比较进行模型验证,结果显示SE向波高与H_(13%)推荐波高对应较好,可以用于大亚湾海区的波浪预报。计算当大亚湾口分别出现10年一遇、50年一遇及100年一遇的波高时,在E、ESE以及ES向入射波浪条件下大亚湾海域极值波高的分布。分别对风暴潮涌浪在不同类型岸线的爬高以及风暴潮涌浪传播对岸线的作用力进行计算。 相似文献
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风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
以青岛大港观测站 32年增水过程为例 ,探讨风暴增水工程设计参数的频率分析法 ,进行了不同阈值序列及各种理论线型的分布拟合。首次提出 Poisson- Pearson- III型分布模式 ,并将其用于工程计算 :对比分析 POT法与年极值法的计算结果 ;给出青岛大港站风暴增水多年一遇设计值 ,为进一步科学地确定海岸防潮工程设计水位奠定了基础。 相似文献
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利用TOPEX卫星高度计资料分析东中国海的风、浪场特征 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用TOPEX卫星高度计和日本气象厅浮标观测资料,对东中国海的有效波高和风速进行比较,分析了卫星高度计资料的有效性。利用有效波高和风速的3种概率密度函数分布,结合TOPEX卫星高度计资料,并采用最大似然方法对统计分布参数进行估计,结果表明,有效波高的对数-正态概率密度分布与观测资料的直方图在有效波高的整个范围内符合较好,风速的直方图与Weibul概率密度分布符合较好。同时,分析了有效波高大于4 m的巨浪在东中国海的时空分布特征,表明巨浪多出现在冬、秋两季,平均有效波高最大值出现在夏季,且主要分布在东中国海东南部。 相似文献
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Slamming pressures are predicted using a nonlinear ship motion program whose input is an ensemble of short wave trains tailored to produce a large, linear pitch response. These short wave trains are calculated via a design methodology that first creates short time series containing a specified, large ship response and then back-calculates the incident wave trains using linear systems theory. The background simulations and theory used to create these short time series are presented here. Monte Carlo simulation of moderately rare events of a random process indicate the random Fourier component phase PDFs are non-uniform, non-identically distributed, and dependent on the rarity of the target event. These PDFs are modeled using a single parameter, Modified Gaussian distribution and used to generate design time series with a given expected value at a specific time. To predict rare events without resorting to Monte Carlo simulation, the parameters of the Modified Gaussian distributions are calculated via characteristic function comparison. The characteristic functions compare a target PDF calculated from extreme value theory to a PDF based on a discrete Fourier representation of the stochastic process with non-uniform component phases. The comparison to extreme value theory helps to quantify the risk associated with rare events. 相似文献
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Generally, the sea-state (random waves) is best described by a wave spectrum. A number of statistical models for wave spectra has been well established and a sea-state can be specified. Once the specified sea-state is established, the corresponding model for wave forces acting on a single cylinder or a group of cylinders can be formulated. Since peak force is of more practical value, a multivariate or joint probability density function for wave forces has been developed for the peak force distribution of wave forces. This theoretical force model derives the tri-variate probability density function P(F, F′, F″), where F is the peak force defined by Morison equation. This model is of wide-band in nature and is tested by wave flume experiments. 相似文献