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1.
Problems of the variational assimilation of satellite observational data on the temperature and level of the ocean surface, as well as data on the temperature and salinity of the ocean from the ARGO system of buoys, are formulated with the use of the global three-dimensional model of ocean thermodynamics developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). Algorithms for numerical solutions of the problems are developed and substantiated, and data assimilation blocks are developed and incorporated into the global three-dimensional model. Numerical experiments are performed with the use of the Indian Ocean or the entire World Ocean as examples. These numerical experiments support the theoretical conclusions and demonstrate that the use of a model with an assimilation block of operational observational data is expedient.  相似文献   

2.
Analysis of statistical characteristics of cyclones and anticyclones in the latitudinal belt between 20° and 80°N has been performed with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and simulations with the general circulation climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS GCCM). The model results have been analyzed for the second half of the 20th century against the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and for the 21st century with the SRES-A2 anthropogenic scenario. Overall for the 20th century, no statistically significant changes in the number of cyclones and anticyclones are obtained from either the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data [1] or from simulations with the INM RAS GCCM [2]. It is found that the total number of cyclones and anticyclones decreased in the 20th century as compared to the 21st century. It is shown that cumulative distributions of the number of cyclones and anticyclones by their intensities and areas have an exponential form from both the reanalysis data and the model simulations, although the corresponding exponents are different.  相似文献   

3.
The problem of variational assimilation of satellite observational data on the ocean surface temperature is formulated and numerically investigated in order to reconstruct surface heat fluxes with the use of the global three-dimensional model of ocean hydrothermodynamics developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), and observational data close to the data actually observed in specified time intervals. The algorithms of the numerical solution to the problem are elaborated and substantiated, and the data assimilation block is developed and incorporated into the global three-dimensional model. Numerical experiments are carried out with the use of the Indian Ocean water area as an example. The data on the ocean surface temperature over the year 2000 are used as observational data. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical conclusions obtained and demonstrate the expediency of combining the model with a block of assimilating operational observational data on the surface temperature.  相似文献   

4.
A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989–2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997–1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.  相似文献   

5.
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6.
The results of simulations performed by the CORE-II scenario using the two Russian OGCMs, INMOM and INMIO, are presented. The models use different coordinate systems in the basic set of primitive equations and different numerical techniques. Both models are used as oceanic components of the INM RAS coupled models. Simulations have shown that reproducing ocean circulation using both models agrees with observations and simulations by other models. In general, the INMOM slightly underestimates the meridional heat transport in the ocean when compared to the INMIO model and climatic estimations. However, the INMIO yields a higher bias in temperature than the INMOM.  相似文献   

7.
The problem of simulating quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) of zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere in atmospheric general circulation models is considered. In accordance with the results from Part I of this study on the basis of the models developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), the possibility of implementing (in these models) mechanisms of QBO excitation through both the interaction of planetary waves with the mean flow and breaking of short gravity waves is investigated. A new high-resolution 2° × 2.5° × 80 version of the INM RAS model is designed, a climate simulation with the two 2° × 2.5° × 39 and 2° × 2.5° × 80 versions of the INM RAS model is briefly described, results of spectral analysis of equatorial wave activity are presented, and the QBO formation processes in these models are considered in detail. For the new 2° × 2.5° × 80 model, realistic QBOs of zonal wind are obtained as the result of the action of both mechanisms.  相似文献   

8.
A new version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS), climate model (CM) has been developed using an ocean general circulation model instead of the statistical-dynamical ocean model applied in the previous version. The spatial resolution of the new ocean model is 3° in latitude and 5° in longitude, with 25 unevenly spaced vertical levels. In the previous version of the oceanic model, as in the atmospheric model, the horizontal resolution was 4.5° in latitude and 6° in longitude, with four vertical levels (the upper quasi-homogeneous layer, seasonal thermocline, abyssal ocean, and bottom friction layer). There is no correction for the heat and momentum fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean in the new version of the IAP RAS CM. Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM have been performed under current initial and boundary conditions, as well as with an increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The main simulated atmospheric and oceanic fields agree quite well with observational data. The new version’s equilibrium temperature sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 doubling was found to be 2.9 K. This value lies in the mid-range of estimates (2–4.5 K) obtained from simulations with state-of-the-art models of different complexities.  相似文献   

9.
Experiments are performed with the climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), integrated jointly with the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM). It is shown that the coupled model reproduces the distribution of basic plant functional types around the world quite well. In simulations of climate for the 21st century, this model predicts changes in dominant plant types and in the total area occupied by vegetation regionally. However, it does not reproduce the significant inverse influence that vegetation succession has on the simulated climate.  相似文献   

10.
The results of simulating global ocean circulation and its interannual variability in 1948–2007 using INM RAS ocean general circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) are presented. One of the INMOM versions is also used for the Black Sea dynamics simulation. The CORE datasets were used to set realistic atmospheric forcing. Sea ice area decrease by 2007 was reproduced in the Arctic Ocean that is in good agreement with observations. The interdecadal climatic variability was revealed with significant decrease of Atlantic thermohaline circulation (ATHC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) in North Atlantic (NA) since the late 1990’s. MHT presents decrease of heat transport from NA to the atmosphere since the mid-1990’s. Therefore the negative feedback is revealed in the Earth climate system that leads to reducing of climate warming caused primarily by anthropogenic factor for the last decades. Long-term variability (60 years) of ATHC is revealed as well which influences NA thermal state with 10 year delay. The assumption is argued that this mechanism can make a contribution in the ATHC own long-term variability.  相似文献   

11.
Spectral characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere are investigated in this work on the basis of data from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses and numerical experiments with the atmospheric general circulation (GCM) model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). The problem of synchronizing QBO and semiannual oscillations (SAO) of the zonal velocity in the mesosphere is considered. It is shown that the process of synchronization to multiples of SAO periods is identifiable in the transition region between QBO and SAO. For all heights where QBO exist, their synchronization with SAO is expressed in the calculation of the period in terms of differences between the westerly maxima. The INM RAS GCM model is shown to satisfactorily reproduce the main spectral characteristics of QBO and SAO, as well as specific features of the variability of the QBO period obtained from reanalysis data. The possibility of synchronization with SAO or the annual cycle in the upper layers is shown on the basis of an investigation of QBO models with a small number of parameters, both for the absorption mechanism of planetary waves by the mean flow and for the breaking of short gravity waves. The QBO formation from different wave types, together with SAO and the annual cycle, can be considered a unified system of oscillations in the circulation of the equatorial upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

12.
The paper discussed the advantages and limitations of seismic signal detection on the ocean bottom. The need to create long-term seismic monitoring systems in areas of industrial development on the shelf and continental slope, as well as in areas with high seismic and tsunami hazards, is justified. The results of employing broadband bottom seismographs during expeditions of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IO RAS) are described. Autonomous broadband bottom seismographs with operational communication via satellite or radio channels are proposed for creating a global marine seismic network.  相似文献   

13.
We present two calculations of pollutant dispersal in the Pacific Ocean: (1) during possible ship-wrecks in the process of spent nuclear fuel transportation from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and (2) pollutant spread from the Japanese coast after the Fukushima-1 nuclear disaster on March 11, 2011. The circulation was calculated using a σ model of ocean hydrothermodynamics developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); it is adapted to cover the Pacific Ocean basin from the equator to the Bering Strait with a high (1/8)° spatial resolution and it is capable of reproducing the mesoscale ocean variations. The pollutant dispersal in the case of possible shipwrecks was estimated for currents characteristic for a statistically average year with atmospheric forcing in accordance with the so-called normal CORE year data. The pollution spread from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant (NPP) was estimated by calculating the circulation with the real atmospheric forcing in accordance with the NCEP analysis data obtained from the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. It is noteworthy that a simplified assimilation of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) was performed. In both cases the currents were calculated simultaneously with the transport calculation of the pollutant as a passive admixture, which corresponds to a real-time calculation of pollutant transport. A map analysis of pollution dispersal shows that the horizontal transport is substantially more intense in the upper ocean layers than in deep ones. Therefore, like in the North branch of Kuroshio, pollutants can be delivered to the deep layers not through deep-water horizontal transport, but rather as a result of vertical downwelling from the already contaminated upper layers. However, the complex three-dimensional structure of the horizontal and vertical transport may lead to reverse situations. A calculation of pollution transport from the Fukushima-1 NPP showed that radioactive pollution would propagate eastward and not present the danger for Russian territory. Moreover, even for an exaggerated scenario of pollution emission, the background pollution level will be exceeded only in a narrow region within 50 km of the Japanese coast.  相似文献   

14.
The ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR data over 1958–1998 were used to estimate the sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics (APCs) of the annual cycle (AC) of the surface air temperature (SAT) T s. The results were compared with outputs of the ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and INM RAS general circulation models and the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity, which were run with variations in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol specified over 1860–2100. The analysis was performed in terms of the linear regression coefficients b of SAT AC APCs on the local annual mean temperature and in terms of the sensitivity characteristic D = br 2, which takes into account not only the linear regression coefficient but also its statistical significance (via the correlation coefficient r). The reanalysis data were used to reveal the features of the tendencies of change in the SAT AC APCs in various regions, including areas near the snow-ice boundary, storm-track ocean regions, large desert areas, and the tropical Pacific. These results agree with earlier observations. The model computations are in fairly good agreement with the reanalysis data in regions of statistically significant variations in SAT AC APCs. The differences between individual models and the reanalysis data can be explained, in particular, in terms of the features of the sea-ice schemes used in the models. Over the land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the absolute values of D for the fall phase time and the interval of exceeding exhibit a positive intermodel correlation with the absolute value of D for the annual-harmonic amplitude. Over the ocean, the models reproducing larger (in modulus) sensitivity parameters of the SAT annual-harmonic amplitude are generally characterized by larger (in modulus) negative sensitivity values of the semiannual-harmonic amplitude T s, 2, especially at latitudes characteristic of the sea-ice boundary. In contrast to the averaged fields of AC APCs and their interannual standard deviations, the sensitivity parameters of the SAT AC APCs on a regional scale vary noticeably for various types of anthropogenic forcing.  相似文献   

15.
A numerical technique is presented for simulating the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea on a variable-step grid with refinement in the area of IO RAS polygon. Model primitive equations are written in spherical coordinates with an arbitrary arrangement of poles. In order to increase the horizontal resolution of the coastal zone in the area of the IO RAS polygon in the northeastern part of the sea near Gelendzhik, one of the poles is placed at a land point (38.35° E, 44.75° N). The model horizontal resolution varies from 150 m in the area of the IO RAS polygon to 4.6 km in the southwestern part of the Black Sea. The numerical technique makes it possible to simulate a large-scale structure of Black Sea circulation as well as the meso- and submesoscale dynamics of the coastal zone. In order to compute the atmospheric forcing, the results of the regional climate model WRF with a resolution of about 10 km in space and 1 h in time are used. In order to demonstrate the technique, Black Sea hydrophysical fields for 2011–2012 and a passive tracer transport representing self-cleaning of Gelendzhik Bay in July 2012 are simulated.  相似文献   

16.
Kuklev  S. B.  Zatsepin  A. G.  Paka  V. T.  Baranov  V. I.  Kukleva  O. N.  Podymov  O. I.  Podufalov  A. P.  Korg  A. O.  Kondrashov  A. A.  Soloviev  D. M. 《Oceanology》2021,61(1):132-138
Oceanology - At the Black Sea research site Gelendzhik of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (IO RAS), a technique has been established for joint current velocity profile measurements using towed...  相似文献   

17.
The problem of numerical modeling and analysis of the large-scale World Ocean circulation variability under variations of the external forcing is considered. A numerical model was developed in the INM RAS and is based on the primitive equations of the ocean circulation written in a spherical generalized σ-coordinate system. The model’s equations are approximated on a grid with resolution of 2.5° × 2° × 33, and the North Pole is displaced to the continental point (60°E, 60.5°N). There are two stages for the numerical experiments. The quasi-equilibrium circulation of the World Ocean under the climatological atmospheric forcing is simulated at the first stage. The run is carried out over a period of 3000 years during which a quasi-equilibrium model regime is formed. At the second stage, the sensitivity of the model ocean circulation to the atmospheric forcing perturbations in the Southern Hemisphere is studied. According to the results, the strongest regional changes in the hydrography take place in the Arctic Ocean. Substantial changes of sea’s surface height and local anomalies of the temperature and salinity are formed there.  相似文献   

18.
This report presents a new analysis of the results of two hydrochemical surveys over the Ob Bay in 2010 performed by the Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO) and the Institute of Oceanology (IO RAS). The unique world feature of the Ob River-Ob Bay system is shown. The water volume in the bay exceeds the average annual runoff of the Ob River, being somewhat under the total runoff of all the inflowing rivers. Because of this, the complete renovation of the waters in the bay requires a long time. The within-year distribution of the runoff is characterized by both the flood waters and those of the Ob River winter runoff characterized by much different hydrochemical parameters registered even in the course of summer surveys in the bay. This fact, but not the biological transformation of the waters, as assumed previously, is the primary cause of the variability of the water composition in the bay. The summer waters of the Ob River reach the sea-ward boundary of the bay only in the next spring, enter the Kara Sea with the spring flood, and form lenses of desalinated waters in the sea. The autumn expeditions by the IO RAS found that the waters in the lenses were quite similar to the autumn waters in the bay, although these were the Ob River waters of different years, which was disregarded formerly.  相似文献   

19.
The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is extended by a block for the direct anthropogenic sulfate-aerosol (SA) radiative forcing. Numerical experiments have been performed with prescribed scenarios of the greenhouse and anthropogenic sulfate radiative forcings from observational estimates for the 19th and 20th centuries and from SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 for the 21st century. The globally averaged direct anthropogenic SA radiative forcing F ASA by the end of the 20th century relative to the preindustrial state is ?0.34 W/m2, lying within the uncertainty range of the corresponding present-day estimates. The absolute value of F ASA is the largest in Europe, North America, and southeastern Asia. A general increase in direct radiative forcing in the numerical experiments that have been performed continues until the mid-21st century. With both the greenhouse and the sulfate loadings included, the global climate warming in the model is 1.5–2.8 K by the end of the 21st century relative to the late 20th century, depending on the scenario, and 2.1–3.4 K relative to the preindustrial period. The sulfate aerosol reduces global warming by 0.1–0.4 K in different periods depending on the scenario. The largest slowdown (>1.5 K) occurs over land at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-21st century for scenario A2. The IAP RAS CM response to the greenhouse and the aerosol forcing is not additive.  相似文献   

20.
The Black Sea shelf is a region of intense manifestation of various dynamical processes. Under the influence of different natural forces, eddy-wave phenomena develop here, which influence the general circulation of sea waters, biological productivity, and the condition of the engineering structures. Modern numerical models allow us to simulate and analyze the processes of the joint dynamics of marine circulation and large-scale waves. In this work, we study the spatiotemporal spectral characteristics of the sea level and velocity fluctuations formed due to atmospheric forcing and tidal potential. The hydrophysical fields are calculated using the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), σ model based on primitive equations. We use the CORE data as atmospheric forcing at the sea surface; the tidal potential is described by the semidiurnal lunar constituent M2. Analyzing the simulation results makes it possible to emphasize that accounting for the semidiurnal tidal potential not only improves the accuracy of the sea-level calculation at coastal stations, but also generates subinertial baroclinic oscillations previously found in the Black Sea from the data of in situ observations.  相似文献   

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