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1.
High time resolution data from the CUTLASS Finland radar during the interval 01:30–03:30 UT on 11 May, 1998, are employed to characterise the ionospheric electric field due to a series of omega bands extending 5° in latitude at a resolution of 45 km in the meridional direction and 50 km in the azimuthal direction. E-region observations from the STARE Norway VHF radar operating at a resolution of 15 km over a comparable region are also incorporated. These data are combined with ground magnetometer observations from several stations. This allows the study of the ionospheric equivalent current signatures and height integrated ionospheric conductances associated with omega bands as they propagate through the field-of-view of the CUTLASS and STARE radars. The high-time resolution and multi-point nature of the observations leads to a refinement of the previous models of omega band structure. The omega bands observed during this interval have scale sizes 500 km and an eastward propagation velocity 0.75 km s–1. They occur in the morning sector (05 MLT), simultaneously with the onset/intensification of a substorm to the west during the recovery phase of a previous substorm in the Scandinavian sector. A possible mechanism for omega band formation and their relationship to the substorm phase is discussed.  相似文献   

2.
The 1981–82 Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) mission is described. The SME experiment will provide a comprehensive study of mesospheric ozone and the processes which form and destroy it. Five instruments will be carried on the spinning spacecraft to measure the ozone density and its altitude distribution from 30 to 80 km, monitor the incoming solar ultraviolet radiation, and measure other atmospheric constituent which affect ozone. The polar-orbiting spacecraft will be placed into a 3pm-3 am Sun-synchronous orbit. The atmospheric measurements will scan the Earth's limb and measure: (1) the mesospheric and stratospheric ozone density distribution by inversion of Rayleigh-scattered ultraviolet limb radiance, and the thermal emission from ozone at 9.6 m; (2) the water vapor density distribution by inversion of thermal emission at 6.3 m; (3) the ozone photolysis rate by inversion of the O2(1g) 1.27 m limb radiance; (4) the temperature profile by a combination of narrow-band and wide-band measurements of the 15 m thermal emission by CO2; and, (5) theNO2 density distribution by inversion of Rayleighscattered limb radiance at 0.439 m. The solar ultraviolet monitor will measure both the 0.2–0.31 m spectral region and the Lyman-alpha (0.1216 m) contribution to the solar irradiance. This combination of measurements will provide a rigorous test of the photochemical equilibrium theory of the mesospheric oxygen-hydrogen system, will determine what changes occur in the ozone distribution as a result of changes in the incoming solar radiation, and will detect changes that may occur as a result of meteorological disturbances.  相似文献   

3.
Rupture process of the 19 August 1992 Susamyr, Kyrgyzstan, earthquake   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
The Susamyr earthquake of August 19, 1992 in Kyrgyzstan is one of the largest events (Ms = 7.4, Mb = 6.8) of this century in this region of Central Asia. We used broadband and long period digital data from IRIS and GEOSCOPE networks to investigate the source parameters, and their space-time distribution by modeling both body and surface waves. The seismic moment (M0 = 6.8 × 1019 N m) and the focal mechanism were determined from frequency-time analysis (FTAN) of the fundamental mode of long period surface waves (100–250 s). Then, the second order integral moments of the moment-rate release were estimated from the amplitude spectra of intermediate period surface waves(40–70 s). From these moments we determined a source duration of 11–13 s, major and minor axes of the source of 30 km and 10–22 km, respectively; and an instant centroid velocity of 1.2 km/s. Finally, we performed a waveform inversion of P and SH waves at periods from 5–60 s. We found a source duration of 18–20 s, longer than the integral estimate from surface wave amplitudes. All the other focal parameters inverted from body waves are similar to those obtained by surface waves ( = 87° ± 6°, = 49° ± 6°, = 105° ± 3°, h = 14 ± 2 km, and M0 = 5.8 ± 0.7 × 1019 N m). The initial rupture of this shallow earthquake was located at the south-west border of Susamyr depression in the western part of northern Tien Shan. A finite source analysis along the strike suggests a westward propagation of the rupture. The main shock of this event was preceded 2 s earlier by small foreshock. The main event was almost immediately followed by a very strong series of aftershocks. Our surface and body wave inversion results agree with the general seismotectonic features of the region.  相似文献   

4.
We propose a thermal model of the subducting Ionian microplate. The slab sinks in an isothermal mantle, and for the boundary conditions we take into account the relation between the maximum depth of seismicity and the thermal parameter Lth of the slab, which is a product of the age of the subducted lithosphere and the vertical component of the convergence rate. The surface heat-flux dataset of the Ionian Sea is reviewed, and a convective geotherm is calculated in its undeformed part for a surface heat flux of 42 mW m–2, an adiabatic gradient of 0.6 mK m–1, a mantle kinematic viscosity of 1017 m2 s–1 and an asthenosphere potential temperature of 1300°C. The calculated temperature-depth distribution compared to the mantle melting temperature indicates the decoupling limit between lithosphere and asthenosphere occurs at a depth of 105 km and a temperature of 1260°C. A 70–km thick mechanical boundary layer is found. By considering that the maximum depth of the seismic events within the slab is 600 km, a Lth of 4725 km is inferred. For a subduction rate equal to the spreading rate, the corresponding assimilation and cooling times of the microplate are about 7 and 90 Myr, respectively. The thermal model assumes that the mantle flow above the slab is parallel and equal to the subducting plate velocity of 6 cm yr–1, and ignores the heat conduction down the slab dip. The critical temperature, above which the subduced lithosphere cannot sustain the stress necessary to produce seismicity, is determined from the thermal conditions governing the rheology of the plate. The minimum potential temperature at the depth of the deepest earthquake in the slab is 730°C.  相似文献   

5.
A sequence of moderate shallow earthquakes (3.5M L5.3) was located within the Vercors massif (France) in the period 1961–1984. This subalpine massif has been a low seismic area for at least 5 centuries. During the period 1962–1963, 12 shallow earthquakes occurred in the neighborhood (10 km) of the Monteynard reservoir, 30 km south of the city of Grenoble. The latest fourM L4.0 earthquakes occurred in 1979–1984 either at larger distance (35 km) or greater depth (10 km) from the reservoir. Two triggering mechanisms are suggested for this sequence: (i) the direct effect of elastic loading through either increased shear stress or strength reducing by increased pore pressure at depth; (ii) the pore pressure diffusion induced by poroelastic stress change due to the reservoir filling.The weekly water levels, local balanced geological cross sections, and focal mechanisms argue for two types of mechanical connection between the earthquake sequence and the filling cycles of the Monteynard reservoir. The seismic sequence started with the 1962–1963 shallow earthquakes that occurred during the first filling of the reservoir and are typical of the direct effect of elastic loading. The 1979 deeper earthquake is located at a 10 km depth below the reservoir. This event occurred 16 years after the initial reservoir impoundment, but one month after the previous 1963 maximum water level was exceeded. Moreover the yearly reservoir level increased gradually in the period 1962–1979 and has decreased since 1980. Accordingly we suggest that the gradual diffusion of water from reservoir to hypocentral depths decreases the strength of the rock matrices through increased pore pressure. The transition between the two types of seismic response is supported by the analysis ofM L3.5 earthquakes which all occurred in the period 1964–1971, ranging between 10 and 30 km distance from the reservoir. The three other delayed earthquakes of the 1961–1984 seismic sequence (M L4 during the 1979–1984 period) are all located 35 km away from the reservoir. Based on the seismic activity, the estimates for the hydraulic diffusivities range between 0.2–10 m2/s, except for the first event that occurred 30 km north of the reservoir, the filling just started. The lack ofin situ measurements of crustal hydrological properties in the area, shared by most of the Reservoir-Induced-Seismicity cases, prevents us from obtaining absolute evidence for the triggering processes. These observations and conceptual models attest that previous recurrence times for moderate natural shocks (4.5M L5.5) estimated within this area using historical data, could be modified by 0.1–1 MPa stress changes. These small changes in deviatoric stress suggest that the upper crust is in this area nearly everywhere at a state of stress near failure. Although the paucity of both number and size of earthquakes in the French subalpine massif shows that aseismic displacements prevail, our study demonstrates that triggered earthquakes are important tools for assessing local seismic risk through mapping fault zones and identifying their possible seismic behavior.  相似文献   

6.
The most complete and reliable data of strong (M s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.  相似文献   

7.
A systematic search was made for seismicity rate changes in the segment of the Kurile island arc from 45°N to 53°N by studying the cumulative seismicity of shallow (h100 km) earthquakes within 11 overlapping volumes of radius 100 km for the time period 1960 through beginning of 1978. We found that in most parts of this island arc and most of the time the seismicity rate as obtained from the NOAA catalogue and not excluding any events is fairly constant except for increased seismicity in the mid 1960s in the southern portion due to the great 1963 mainshock there, and for seismicity quiescence during part of the time period studied within two well defined sections of the arc. The first of these is a volume of 100 km radius around a 1973 (M s =7.3) mainshock within which the seismicity rate was demonstrated at the 99% confidence level to have been lower by 50% during 2100 days (5.75 years) before this mainshock. The second volume of seismic quiescence coincides with the 400 km long north Kuriles gap. In this gap the seismicity rate is shown (at the 99% confidence level) to be lower by 50% from 1967 to present (1978), in comparison with the rate within the gap befor 1967, as well as with the rate surrounding the gap. We propose that the anomalously low seismicity rate within the Kuriles gap is a precursor to a great earthquake, the occurrence time of which was estimated by the following preliminary relation between precursory quiescence time and source dimensionT=190L 0.545. We predict that an earthquake with source length of 200–400 km (M>8) will occur along the north Kurile island arc between latitude 45.5°N and 49.2°N at a time between now and 1994.  相似文献   

8.
Subduction zone earthquakes and stress in slabs   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Summary The pattern of seismicity as a function of depth in the world, and the orientation of stress axes of deep and intermediate earthquakes, are explained using viscous fluid models of subducting slabs, with a barrier in the mantle at 670 km. 670 km is the depth of a seismic discontinuity, and also the depth below which earthquakes do not occur. The barrier in the models can be a viscosity increase of an order of magnitude or more, or a chemical discontinuity where vertical velocity is zero. LongN versus depth, whereN is the number of earthquakes, shows (1) a linear decrease to about 250–300 km depth, (2) a minimum near that depth, and (3) an increase thereafter. Stress magnitude in a subducting slab versus depth, for a wide variety of models, shows the same pattern. Since there is some experimental evidence thatN is proportional toe , where is a constant and is the stress magnitude, the agreement is encouraging. In addition, the models predict down-dip compression in the slab at depths below 400 km. This has been observed in earlier studies of earthquake stress axes, and we have confirmed it via a survey of events occurring since 1977 which have been analysed by moment tensor inversion. At intermediate depths, the models predict an approximate but not precise state of down-dip tension when the slab is dipping. The observations do not show an unambiguous state of down-dip tension at intermediate depths, but in the majority of regions the state of stress is decidedly closer to down-dip tension than it is to down-dip compression. Chemical discontinuities above 670 km, or phase transitions with an elevation of the boundary in the slab, predict, when incorporated into the models, stress peaks which are not mirrored in the profile of seismicity versus depth. Models with an asthenosphere and mesosphere of appropriate viscosity can not only explain the state of stress observed in double Benioff zones, but also yield stress magnitude profiles consistent with observed seismicity. Models where a nonlinear rheology is used are qualitatively consistent with the linear models.  相似文献   

9.
Using the FLOWGO thermo-rheological model we have determined cooling-limited lengths of channel-fed (i.e. a) lava flows from Mauna Loa. We set up the program to run autonomously, starting lava flows from every 4th line and sample in a 30-m spatial-resolution SRTM DEM within regions corresponding to the NE and SW rift zones and the N flank of the volcano. We consider that each model run represents an effective effusion rate, which for an actual flow coincides with it reaching 90% of its total length. We ran the model at effective effusion rates ranging from 1 to 1,000 m3 s–1, and determined the cooling-limited channel length for each. Keeping in mind that most flows extend 1–2 km beyond the end of their well-developed channels and that our results are non-probabilistic in that they give all potential vent sites an equal likelihood to erupt, lava coverage results include the following: SW rift zone flows threaten almost all of Mauna Loas SW flanks, even at effective effusion rates as low as 50 m3 s–1 (the average effective effusion rate for SW rift zone eruptions since 1843 is close to 400 m3 s–1). N flank eruptions, although rare in the recent geologic record, have the potential to threaten much of the coastline S of Keauhou with effective effusion rates of 50–100 m3 s–1, and the coast near Anaehoomalu if effective effusion rates are 400–500 m3 s–1 (the 1859 a flow reached this coast with an effective effusion rate of 400 m3 s–1). If the NE rift zone continues to be active only at elevations >2,500 m, in order for a channel-fed flow to reach Hilo the effective effusion rate needs to be 400 m3 s–1 (the 1984 flow by comparison, had an effective effusion rate of 200 m3 s–1). Hilo could be threatened by NE rift zone channel-fed flows with lower effective effusion rates but only if they issue from vents at 2,000 m or lower. Populated areas on Mauna Loas SE flanks (e.g. Phala), could be threatened by SW rift zone eruptions with effective effusion rates of 100 m3 s–1.Editorial responsibility: J Donnelly-Nolan  相似文献   

10.
We consider a general stochastic branching process,which is relevant to earthquakes as well as to many other systems, and we study the distributions of the total number of offsprings (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We apply our results to a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model. The ETAS model assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (aftershocks). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake (fertility), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime in which the distribution of fertilities is characterized by a power law ~1/1+. For earthquakes we expect such a power-distribution of fertilities with =b/ based on the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution ~ 10–bm and on the increase ~ 10–m of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude m. We derive the asymptotic distributions pr(r) and pg(g) of the total number r of offsprings and of the total number g of generations until extinction following a mainshock. In the regime < 2 for which the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance, we find This should be compared with the distributions obtained for standard branching processes with finite variance. These predictions are checked by numerical simulations. Our results apply directly to the ETAS model whose preferred values =0.8–1 and b=1 puts it in the regime where the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance. More generally, our results apply to any stochastic branching process with a power-law distribution of offsprings per mother  相似文献   

11.
Through a detailed analysis of seismicity at the base of the transition zone, we obtain an updated value of the maximum reliable depth of confirmed seismicity, we investigate regional variation in the maximum depth of seismicity among those Wadati-Benioff zones which reach the bottom of the transition zone, and we attempt to quantify the maximum possible rate of seismic release in the lower mantle compatible with the failure to detect even a single event since the advent of modern seismological networks. We classify deep subduction zones into three groups: those whose seismicity does not reach beyond 620 km, those whose seismicity appears to terminate around 650–660 km, and Tonga-Kermadec (and the Vityaz cluster) whose seismicity extends to 685–690 km. We suggest that the depth extent of seismicity is controlled by the depth of the pv + mw transition responsible for the 660-km seismic discontinuity, which is deflected to greater depths in cold slabs than in warmer ones. We note that this transition marks the depth below which thermal perturbation of phase transitions no longer generates buoyancy anomalies and their large attendant down-dip compressive stresses and below which strain energy generated by other mechanisms may not accumulate to seismogenic levels due to superplastic weakness in fine-grained materials. We find that the maximum level of seismic activity in the lower mantle must be at least three orders of magnitude less than that observed in the transition zone.  相似文献   

12.
Reservoir induced earthquakes began to occur in the vicinity of Shivajisagar Lake formed by Koyna Dam in Maharashtra state, western India, soon after its filling started in 1962. Induced earthquakes have continued to occur for the past 34 years in the vicinity of this reservoir, and so far a total of 10 earthquakes of M 5.0, over 100 of M 4 and about 100,000 of M 0.0 have occurred. Every year, following the rainy season, the water level in the reservoir rises and induced earthquakes occur. Seismic activity during 1967–68 was most intense when globally, the largest reservoir induced earthquake occurred on 10 December, 1967. Other years of intense seismic activity are 1973 and 1980. During 1986 another reservoir, Warna, some 20 km south of Koyna, began to be filled. The recent burst of seismic activity in Koyna-Warna region began in August, 1993, and was monitored with a close network of digital and analog seismographs. During August, 1993–December, 1995, 1,272 shocks of magnitude 2 were located, including two earthquakes of M 5.0 and M 5.4 on 8 December, 1993 and 1 February, 1994, respectively. Two parallel epicentral trends in NNE-SSW direction, one passing through Koyna and the other through Warna reservoir are delineated. The 1993 increase in seismicity has followed a loading of 44.15 m in Warna reservoir during 11 June 11, 1993 through August 4, 1993, with a maximum rate of filling being 16 m/week. The larger shocks have been found to be preceded by a precursory nucleation process.  相似文献   

13.
The use of probability distribution ofrecurrence times as described by theexponential, Weibull and Rayleihgprobability densities form the core of theprobabilistic seismic prediction analysispresented in this paper. Using these threeprobabilistic models we derive threeformulas to calculate the conditionalprobability P(t|t) than an earthquakeevent will occur in the time interval (t, t+ t), provide that it has not occurredin the elapsed time t since the last largeearthquake (M 6.4) in the Tokyo area.This paper proposes a new method toestimate the time interval t foroccurrence of a new large earthquake inTokyo area. This time interval is measuredafter the elapsed time (t) since the lastlarge earthquake. To do this we use thethree formulas for the conditionalprobability P(t|t) and the criterionof the maximum conditional probability ofearthquake occurrence.Using a list of historical earthquakeswhich have occurred in the Tokyo area asgiven by Usami (1976, pp. 235–243), wefound that: (1) Using the exponentialmodel, it is estimated that a highlydamaging earthquake magnitude M 6.4, mayoccur before the year 2009.50, orequivalently before June 2009; (2) Usingthe Weibull model, it is estimated that thedamaging earthquake (M 6.4) may occurbefore the year 2129.80, or equivalentlybefore October 2129.  相似文献   

14.
Approximately one thousand microearthquakes with body-wave magnitude mb have been located in northern Venezuela and the southern Caribbean region (9–12° N; 64–70° W) since the installation in 1980 of the Venezuelan Seismological Array, together with forty events of mb 4, one of them with surface-wave magnitude Ms 6. Focal depths are in the range of 0 to <15 km. This geologically complex region is part of the boundary between the Caribbean and the South American Plates. Epicentral locations indicate that this E–W oriented portion of the boundary is formed by two 400 km long subparallel fault zones: San Sebastián fault zone (SSF), 20 km north of Caracas along the coast; and La Victoria fault zone (LVF), 25 km south of the city. They are clearly delineated by the microseismicity. New composite focal mechanism solutions (CFMS) along these faults show right-lateral strike-slip (RLSS) motion on nearly E–W oriented fault planes. NW-striking subsidiary active faults occur in the region and intercept the two main E–W fault zones. These interceptions show high levels of microearthquake activity and seismic moment release when compared to other portions of both, the main and subsidiary faults. New CFMS at those fault crossing sites show NW-striking RLSS motion and normal faulting, in an en-echelon-like structural behavior. Geological data and quantitative comparisons with other transcurrent plate boundaries in the world suggest that the rate of plate motion in this area is on the order of 20 mm/y. Several moderate and large shocks have occurred along the SSF and LVF since 1640, including an Ms 7.6 event in 1900 on SSF. Although the region may be relatively far from a repeat of this earthquake, seismicity data indicate that strong shocks could take place along segments of the seismically active faults identified in this study.  相似文献   

15.
We analyzed the broadband body waves of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake to determine the nature of rupture. The rupture propagation was represented by the distribution of point sources with moment-rate functions at 9 grid points with uniform spacing of 20 km along the fault strike. The moment-rate functions were then parameterized, and the parameters were determined with the least squares method with some constraints. The centroid times of the individual moment-rate functions indicate slow and smooth rupture propagation at a velocity of 1.5 km/s toward NW and 1.0 km/s toward SE. Including a small initial break which precedes the main rupture by about 10 s, we obtained a total source duration of 110 s. The total seismic moment isM o =3.4×1020 Nm, which is consistent with the value determined from long-period surface waves,M o =3.7×1020 Nm. The average rise time of dislocation is determined to be 10 s. The major moment release occurred along a fault length of 160 km. With the assumption of a fault widthW=50 km, we obtained the dislocationD=1.3 m. From andD the dislocation velocity isD=D/0.1 m/s, significantly smaller than the typical value for ordinary earthquakes. The stress drop =1.1 MPa is also less than the typical value for subduction zone earthquakes by a factor of 2–3. On the other hand, the apparent stress defined by 2E s /M o , where andE s are respectively the rigidity and the seismic wave energy, is 0.037 MPa, more than an order of magnitude smaller than . The Nicaragua tsunami earthquake is characterized by the following three properties: 1) slow rupture propagation; 2) smooth rupture; 3) slow dislocation motion.  相似文献   

16.
Earthquake Triggering along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone of Western Sichuan,China   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  
Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

17.
Convection occurs when two water reservoirs, the overlying and the underlying, are connected by a narrow channel and the fluid in the lower reservoir is heated to the stage of phase transition into steam. The laboratory study of the properties of unstable steam-water convection showed that under favourabieP-T conditions the convection can be the triggering mechanism of seismicity. This type of convection causes a sudden fall of pressure in the lower reservoir and in the connecting channel, the impulsive mechanical disturbances, and cyclicity. The point of initiation of this phenomenon can be located at a depth of 5–7 km from the earth's surface with subsequent propagation of the process of instability to larger and smaller depths. This model of the natural terrestrial conditions can account for the earthquake cyclicity in the same focal zones, the rise of temperature and of the level of ground waters during earthquakes, the enhancement of seismicity while filling the water storage basins, the effect of floating up of hypocenters of aftershocks and the greater intervals between them.  相似文献   

18.
Information concerning a total number of 13700 instrumentally recorded earthquakes is used to study the geographical and the vertical distribution of the Earth's seismicity. From these earthquakes, which form four complete samples of data (M 7.0, 1894–1992; M 6.5, 1930–1992; M 6.0, 1953–1992; M 5.5, 1966–1992), 11511 are shallow (h 60 km), 2085 are of intermediate focal depth (61 h 300 km) and 564 are deep focus earthquakes (301 h 720 km). The parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relationship were calculated in a grid of equally spaced points at 1° by using the data of earthquakes located inside circles centered at each point. The radius of the circles increased from 30 km with a step of 10 km until the information for the earthquakes located inside the circle fulfil three criteria which concern the size of the sample used to compute these parameters at each point of the grid. The results are given in a qualitative way (epicenter maps) as well as in a quantitative way (mean return periods).  相似文献   

19.
Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.  相似文献   

20.
Precursory seismic quiescence: Past,present, and future   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Precursory seismic quiescence has played a major role in most of the succesful earthquake predictions made to date. In addition to these successes, the number of detailed post-mainshock documentations of precursory quiescence is steadily growing. These facts suggest that precursory quiescence will play an important role in earthquake prediction programs of the future. For this reason it is important to critically evaluate the present state of knowledge concerning this phenomenon. The history of observations of precursory seismic quiescence includes work on seismic gaps and seismic preconditions as well as actual studies of temporal quiescence. These papers demonstrated the importance of quantitative evaluation of seismicity rates and the benefits of systematic analysis. During the early 1980's the impact of man-made effects on seismicity rates was demonstrated for the first time. Despite progress in catalog understanding, the identification and correction of man-made seismicity changes remains as the major barrier to earthquake prediction using these data. Effects of man-made changes are apparent in many past studies of seismicity patterns, making the results difficult to evaluate. Recent experience with real-time anomalies has demonstrated the necessity of determining the false alarm rates associated with quiescence precursors. Determination of false alarm rates depends on quantitative definitions of anomalies and statistical evaluations of their significance. A number of successful predictions, which have been made on the basis of seismic quiescence, provide important lessons for present and future work. There are many presently unanswered questions regarding seismic quiescence which must be answered before we can determine the reliability of this phenomena as a precursor.  相似文献   

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