首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
A broadband seismic array of 7 stations was set up in the western Dabie Mountains (31°20′-31°50′N, 114°30′-115°E). Teleseismic events from May 2001 to November 2001 were collected and analyzed by radial receiver function to determine the S-wave velocity structure of the crust and uppermost mantle. The crustal thickness is 32-38 km beneath the array. The crust-mantle boundary appears as a gently north-dipping velocity discontinuity, but turns to be a velocity gradient beneath a station near the Qiliping shea...  相似文献   

2.
In order to reveal the changes of vegetation in southern China since the Last Glacial Maximum, we have established high-resolution time scales and palynological sequences of borehole profiles by drilling cores in some weak areas of the research to restore vegetation changes over the past 20,000 years on the basis of previous work. This paper gives the vegetation zoning maps of 18, 9 and 6 ka BP respectively in southern China, and describes the distribution characteristics of plants in different zones/subzones. The results show that the vegetation zonations around 18 ka BP were significantly different from that at present.It appeared in turn with Cold-temperate coniferous forest and alpine meadow steppe zone, and Temperate mixed coniferous and broad-leaved forest zone/warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest zone from northwest to southeast in the west, and Temperate mixed coniferous and broad-leaved forest zone, Warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest zone, and Northern subtropical mixed evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone from north to south in the central and east. The vegetation distribution around 9 ka BP changed distinctively. Except that the northwest part was located in Mountain temperate mixed coniferous and broad-leaved forest zone, the vegetation in other areas occurred in turn with North subtropical mixed evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest subzone, Mid-subtropical typical evergreen broad-leaved forest subzone, and South subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest subzone/Tropical seasonal rainforest and rainforest zone from north to south.There was little change in the appearance of vegetation zonations between 6 and 9 ka BP, but the northern edge of each vegetation belt moved a little northward, reflecting that the overall climate became warmer around 6 ka BP. The vegetation changes in southern China over the past 20,000 years were largely driven by environmental changes. Climate change was the main factor affecting the vegetation distribution. The impact of human activities became more and more remarkable in the later period. In the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the delta region, sea level changes also influenced the vegetation distribution.  相似文献   

3.
Through analysis of the distribution pattern and changing characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the East Asia region during warm seasons in recent 20 a and beyond as well as their possible interactive relationship with a variety of meteorological elements, it is found that the high-value zone of aerosol optical depth derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), its significant negative correlation zones in terms of sunshine duration (SD) and surface air temperature (SAT) and its significant positive correlation zones with low-level cloud amount (LCC) are co-located in the South China region during warm periods. Based on this finding, the region is referred to as a “significant impact zone” (SI zone) affected by aerosols. Then, a comparative analysis is made on variation differences of observed SAT, SD and LCC, etc. in different regions. It is also found that the LCC is increased and the SD is decreased within the “SI zone” over eastern China during the warm season. These characteristics are more evident than those beyond the zone, while the warming trend within the zone is evidently weaker than that outside it. Studies show that since recent 20 a, under the influence of aerosols, the LCC tend to increase substantially with a clear decrease of SD and an unnoticeable warming trend within the “SI zone”. Comparing with the climate change beyond the zone, the difference is significant. Therefore, the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate is possibly one of the contributions to the difference of climate change existed between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern China during a warm season. Supported by the International Sci-Tech Cooperative Project under the auspices of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (No. 2004DFA06100)  相似文献   

4.
Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for Chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial patterns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951–2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of China, especially North China, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest China. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over China, which are all closely related to strong El Niño events. In other words, when one strong El Niño event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over China on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also suggest that during the last 2–3 decades climate changes over China, especially North China’s drying and northwest China’s wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3–8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951–1962 and 1976–1991, but low during 1963–1975 and 1992–2000.  相似文献   

5.
1951～2002年中国东、西部地区地面气温变化对比   总被引：27，自引：1，他引：26       下载免费PDF全文
利用1951～2002年全国733个测站经过非均一性检验的月平均气温资料,在剔除50万以上人口大城市测站后,分析了52年来中国东、西部及青藏高原地区的气温变化趋势的一致性和差异性,并讨论了其可能原因.结果表明我国东、西部地区年、季平均气温变化有着较好的一致性;近52年来,我国东、西部和青藏高原地区年平均气温均呈升温趋势,年平均气温的增温速率东部为026℃/10a,西部018℃/10a,东部比西部高008℃/10a;季平均气温东部地区冬、春季的增暖趋势大于西部和青藏高原,而其夏、秋季的增暖趋势小于西部和青藏高原.我国东、西部地区年、季平均气温变化关系密切,说明其主要是受全球气候变化的影响而变化,但东部年平均气温的增暖总趋势大于西部,又说明地域差异在气温变化中也有重要作用.  相似文献   

6.
Using CRU high resolution grid observational temperature and ERA40 reanalysis surface air temperature data during 1960–1999, we investigated the sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China by subtracting the reanalysis from the observed surface air temperature (observation minus reanalysis, OMR). The results show that there is a stable and systemic impact of land use/cover types on surface air temperature. The surface warming of each land use/cover type reacted differently to global warming. The OMR trends of unused land (⩾0.17 °C/decade), mainly comprised by sandy land, Gobi and bare rock gravel land, are obviously larger than those of the other land use/cover types. The OMR over grassland, farmland and construction land shows a moderate decadal warmingabout 0.12°C/decade, 0.10°C/decade, 0.12°C/decade, respectively. Woodland areas do not show a significant warming trend (0.06°C/decade). The overall assessment indicates that the surface warming is larger for areas that are barren and anthropogenically developed. The better the vegetation cover, the smaller the OMR warming trend. Responses of surface air temperature to land use/cover types with similar physical and chemical properties and biological processes have no significant difference. The surface air temperature would not react significantly until the intensity of land cover changes reach a certain degree. Within the same land use/cover type, areas in eastern China with intensive human activities exhibit larger warming trend. The results provide observational evidence for modeling research on the impact of land use/cover change on regional climate. Thus, projecting further surface climate of China in regional scale should not only take greenhouse gas increase into account, but also consider the impact of land use/cover types and land cover change. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2005CB422006), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 90202012, 40771206)  相似文献   

7.
Characteristics of contemporary climate change in the Tibetan Plateau have been investigated based on the observational data of monthly mean air temperature, monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, and precipitation amount at 217 stations in the Plateau and its adjacent areas in 1951–1998, in which the temperature data at Lhasa, Lanzhou, Kunming and Chengdu were extended to a period of 1935–1950. The following conclusions can be drawn. (1) The air temperature in the Tibetan Plateau decreased from the 1950s to the 1960s, afterwards it began warming up to the 1990s. The data at the Lhasa Station beginning from 1935 have indicated that the air temperature at the station was the highest in the 1940s, then it became cooling until the 1960s. After the 1960s, it began warming until the 1990s. However, the air temperature at Lhasa in the 1990s still did not reach as high as in the 1940s. (2) Since the 1960s, there has existed a cooling belt below 3000 m altitude above sea level, which is located in eastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and there has existed a strong warming belt from south to north in 85–95° E. Because there are very nonhomogeneous and positive-negative alternating changes between cooling and warming belts, the air temperature is not linearly increased with increasing height. (3) Since the 1960s, there has existed a precipitation decreasing belt distributed over southwestern to northeastern Plateau as well as over a below 3000 m a.s.l. area in southeastern Plateau. The warming with decreasing precipitation occurs in the central area of the Plateau and the above 3000 m western Plateau; the warming with increasing precipitation occurs in the northern and southern Plateau; and the cooling with decreasing precipitation occurs in the below 3000 m southeastern Plateau.  相似文献   

8.
Seven longitudinal water temperature tow surveys were conducted to attempt to identify the location of surface and subsurface river water exchanges along the length of the West River at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada (74°55′ N, 109°35′ W). Water temperature data were collected using a calibrated thermistor with an accuracy of ±0.002 °C (resolution <0.00005 °C) along the river during July 2014 in conjunction with stable water isotope sampling to support the thermal data and to determine the extent of surface water mixing from different sources such as precipitation, snowmelt, and surface/subsurface water contributions to the river. Atmospheric conditions were found to be the main contributor to seasonal temperature variance in the river, whereas tributary inflows and residual channel snow also had important thermal effects to river temperatures. Residual channel snow was a sustained source of cold water during much of the 2014 summer season (June–August) and substantially offset downstream warming. The longitudinal temperature profiles indicate notable changes to the thermal state of the river, which are interpreted to be indicative of subsurface and surface water exchange through inputs of relatively cold or warm water. Broadly, surface inflows were found to provide warmer water relative to the West River, and contributed to downstream warming of the river, along with downstream enrichment of δD and δ18O. Subsurface inflows provided cooler water relative to the river, and contributed to downstream depletion of δD and δ18O and downstream cooling of river temperatures. These results demonstrate that localized changes in river temperature, in conjunction with isotopic tracers, can be used to track channel–slope water interactions in Arctic hydrological systems, work previously limited to alpine and temperate settings.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

In determining the possible influence of climate change, it is important to understand the temporal and spatial variability in streamflow response for diverse climate zones. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the presence of changes in annual maximum peak flow for two climate zones in Chile over the past few decades. A general analysis, a flood frequency analysis and a trend analysis were used to study such changes between 1975 and 2008 for a semi-arid (29°S–32°S) and a temperate (36°S–38°S) climatic zone. The historic annual maxima, minima and mean flows, as well as decadal mean peak flow, were compared over the period of record. The Gumbel distribution was selected to compare the 30-year flood values of two ±15-year intervals, which showed that streamflow decreased by an average of 19.5% in the semi-arid stations and increased by an average of 22.6% in the temperate stations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the temporal changes in streamflows, with negative trends being observed in 87% of the stations analysed in the semi-arid zone, and positive trends in 57% of those analysed in the temperate zone. These differences in streamflow response between climate zones could be related to recent documented increases in altitude of the zero-degree isotherm in the Andes Mountains of Chile, since most of the significant positive and negative changes were detected in first-order rivers located closer to this mountain range.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Lins

Citation Pizarro, R., Vera, M., Valdés, R., Helwig, B., and Olivares, C., 2013. Multi-decadal variations in annual maximum peak flows in semi-arid and temperate regions of Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 300–311.  相似文献   

10.
The correlations of isotopic ratios in precipitation with temperature, air pressure and humidity at dif- ferent altitudes, in southwest China, are analyzed. There appear marked negative correlations for the δ 18O in precipitation with precipitation amount, vapor pressure and atmospheric precipitable water (PW) at Mengzi, Simao and Tengchong stations on synoptic timescale; the marked negative correlations between the δ 18O in precipitation and the diurnal mean temperature at 400 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850 hPa are different from the temperature effect in middle-high-latitude inland. Moreover, the notable positive correlation between the δ 18O in precipitation and the dew-point deficit △Td at different altitudes is found at the three stations. On annual timescale, the annual precipitation amount weighted mean δ 18O display the negative correlations not only with annual precipitation but also with annual mean temperature at 500 hPa. It can be deduced that, in the years with abnormally strong summer monsoon, more warm and wet air from low-latitude oceans is transported northward along the vapor channel located in southwest China and generates abnormally strong rainfall on the way. Meanwhile, the ab- normally strong condensation process will release more condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the rise of atmospheric temperature during rainfall, but decline of the δ 18O in precipitation. On the contrary, in the years with abnormally weak summer monsoon, the abnormally weak condensation process will release less condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the decline of atmos- pheric temperature during rainfall, but increase of the δ 18O in precipitation.  相似文献   

11.
Through analysis of the distribution pattern and changing characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the East Asia region during warm seasons in recent 20 a and beyond as well as their possible interac- tive relationship with a variety of meteorological elements, it is found that the high-value zone of aerosol optical depth derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), its significant negative correlation zones in terms of sunshine duration (SD) and surface air temperature (SAT) and its significant positive correlation zones with low-level cloud amount (LCC) are co-located in the South China region during warm periods. Based on this finding, the region is referred to as a "significant impact zone" (SI zone) affected by aerosols. Then, a comparative analysis is made on variation differ- ences of observed SAT, SD and LCC, etc. in different regions. It is also found that the LCC is increased and the SD is decreased within the "SI zone" over eastern China during the warm season. These characteristics are more evident than those beyond the zone, while the warming trend within the zone is evidently weaker than that outside it. Studies show that since recent 20 a, under the influence of aerosols, the LCC tend to increase substantially with a clear decrease of SD and an unnoticeable warming trend within the "SI zone". Comparing with the climate change beyond the zone, the difference is significant. Therefore, the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate is possibly one of the contri- butions to the difference of climate change existed between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern China during a warm season.  相似文献   

12.
Long-time series of high-resolution temperature record from Chinese Loess Plateau is rare. An April-September mean temperature reconstruction (1826-2004) has been developed for the north-central Shaanxi Province, China, based on tree-ring width analysis. The reconstruction captures 39.3% (p<0.001) of the variance in the instrumental data over the calibration period from 1951 to 2002. The reconstruction shows a high temperature period of 1928-1933, which coincides with the timing of the extreme drought event in 1920s in the entire northern China. The two low temperature periods in reconstruction are 1883-1888 and 1938-1942. With the global warming, the April-September mean temperature in study area has also increased since the 1970s, but has not exceeded the temperature in 1928-1933. Besides the statistical analysis, the reconstruction is also verified by the local dryness/wetness index and other dendroclimatological results.  相似文献   

13.
Reconstructing the spatial patterns of regional climate and vegetation during specific intervals in the past is important for assessing the possible responses of the ecological environment under future global warming scenarios. In this study, we reconstructed the history of regional vegetation and climate based on six radiocarbon-dated pollen records from the North China Plain. Combining the results with existing pollen records, we reconstruct the paleoenvironment of the North China Plain during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) and the Holocene Climatic Optimum(HCO). The results show that changes in the regional vegetation since the LGM were primarily determined by climatic conditions, the geomorphic landscape and by human activity.During the LGM, the climate was cold and dry; mixed broadleaf-coniferous forest and deciduous-evergreen broadleaf forest developed in the southern mountains, and cold-resistant coniferous forest and mixed broadleaf-coniferous forest were present in the northern mountains. The forest cover was relatively low, with mesophytic and hygrophilous meadow occupying the southern part of the plain, and temperate grassland and desert steppe were distributed in the north; Chenopodiaceae-dominated halophytes grew on the exposed continental shelf of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. During the HCO, the climate was warm and wet;deciduous broadleaf forest and deciduous-evergreen broadleaf forest, with subtropical species, developed in the southern mountains, and deciduous broadleaf forest with thermophilic species was present in northern mountains. Although the degree of forest cover was greater than during the LGM, the vegetation of the plain area was still dominated by herbs, while halophytes had migrated inland due to sea level rise. In addition, the expansion of human activities, especially the intensification of cultivation,had a significant influence on the natural vegetation. Our results provide data and a scientific basis for paleoclimate modelling and regional carbon cycle assessment in north China, with implications for predicting changes in the ecological environment under future global warming scenarios.  相似文献   

14.
本文利用Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS进行中国区域气候基准时段(1961～1990年)和SRES B2情景下2071～2100年(2080s)最高、最低气温及日较差变化响应的分析.气候基准时段的模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明：PRECIS具有对中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差的模拟能力,能够模拟出中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差的局地分布特征.对SRES B2情景下相对于气候基准时段的最高、最低气温及日较差变化响应分析表明：中国区域2080s时段年、冬季和夏季平均最高、最低气温变化均呈一致增加的趋势,北方地区增温幅度普遍大于南方地区.夏季东北地区极端高温事件发生的频率将会增加,而冬季华北地区极端冷害事件发生频率将会减少.未来中国区域年平均日较差将出现北方地区减小而南方地区增加的趋势.冬季长江中下游以南地区日较差呈增加趋势,而夏季华东地区、西北地区及内蒙古中部日较差将呈减小趋势,其中在青藏高原北部地区存在一个较强的低值中心.  相似文献   

15.
IntroductionThe development and occurrence of macroseismic activity come from the specific structUreenvironment and stress condition. So the space-time distribUtion of strong quakes appears to bevery inhomogeneous. Earthquakes with Ms27.0 in a seismicity period presented often a speeding-up pattern with time in different seismic provinces. That is, the cumulative frequency of earthquakes with Ms27.0 increase with exponent N(t)=ae', in a seismicity period (ZHANG, FU, 1989).It means that t…  相似文献   

16.
华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型   总被引：62，自引：6，他引：56       下载免费PDF全文
利用近50年华北地区26个站逐月降水观测资料和全球大气海洋分析资料,分析了华北降水的年代际变化特征及其和全球海气系统年代际变化的关系.对华北降水距平指数变化分析表明,近50年来华北降水具有减少的总体趋势,叠加在该趋势之上的是年代际变化,其中1965年和1980年发生了两次跃变,使得20世纪80年代干旱尤为严重.在对华北地区降水年代际变化特征分析的基础上,揭示了与华北降水年代际异常相伴随的大气环流和上层海洋热力异常型.结果表明,华北降水年代际异常与太平洋上层海洋热力状况异常有显著关系,主要表现为太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）与华北降水异常的相关.在年代际时间尺度上,华北干旱与上层海洋热力及大气环流异常的配置关系如下：当华北地区干旱时,则热带中东太平洋海温偏高,北太平洋中部海温偏低,即太平洋上主要表现为PDO暖位相,全球大部分地区（包括华北地区）气温偏高,青藏高原地区气温偏低,日本北部及东西伯利亚气压异常偏低,华北及其以南大片地区气压偏高,华北地区由异常西北风控制,不利于水汽向华北地区输送.  相似文献   

17.
By combining living trees and archaeological wood, the annual mean temperatures were reconstructed based on ring-width indices of the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau for the past 2485 years. The climate variations revealed by the reconstruction indicate that there were four periods to have average temperatures similar to or even higher than that mean of 1970 to 2000 AD. A particularly notable rapid shift from cold to warm, we call it the “Eastern Jin Event”, occurred from 348 AD to 413 AD. Calculation results show that the temperature variations over the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau are not only representative for large parts of north-central China, but also closely correspond to those of the entire Northern Hemisphere over long time scales. During the last 2485 years, the downfall of most major dynasties in China coincides with intervals of low temperature. Compared with the temperature records in other regions of China during the last 1000 years, this reconstruction from the Tibetan Plateau shows a significant warming trend after the 1950s. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40525004, 40599420, 40890051), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2007BAC30B00, 2004CB720200, 2006CB400503) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA, Grant to Hans W. Linderholm)  相似文献   

18.
The functional relation between theδ18O values in the shell of gastropod Gyraulus sibirica and the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period, and that between Sr/Ca ratio and the precipitation in the warm half-yearly period were established by calibrating the δ18O and δ13C values, Sr/Ca ratio and Mg/Ca ratio in the shell Gyraulus sibirica, as well as the total organic carbon (TOC) and its δ13C values in the Xingcuo Lake sediment in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The sequences of air temperature and precipitation in the last 200 years in the region were quantitatively recuperated on this basis. The results showed the following: (i) There was a negative correlativity between Sr/Ca ratio and the precipitation in the warm half-yearly period, its correlation coefficient was 0.86. (ii) There was an obviously positive correlativity between indexδ18O and the running average temperature in the warm half-yearly period, its correlation coefficient was 0.89. (iii) Evolution of the air temperature and the precipitation in the last 200 years can be divided into three phases distinctly. The precipitation in the later mid-19th century was 220 mm higher than that today; the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period was 2℃ lower than that of the present. The precipitation in the minimum air temperature period of the early 20th century was below that today by 60 mm, and the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period was 3.4℃ lower than that today. (iv) An evidently warming and drying trend existed in the last five decades.  相似文献   

19.
To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.  相似文献   

20.
The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号