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1.
Laura Graziani Andrea Tertulliani Alessandra Maramai Antonio Rossi Luca Arcoraci 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(5):1219-1227
The aim of this paper is to provide a complete and reliable macroseismic knowledge of the events that stroke a large area in Central Italy on 7 and 11 May 1984. Previous studies, together with original accounts integrated with new and unpublished information, have been gathered and examined in order to re-evaluate macroseismic intensities in terms of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98). New intensity maps have been compiled; the total number of localities with available information for both the shocks increases from 1254 of the previous study to 1576. On the basis of the new dataset, the macroseismic magnitude of the first shock is MW 5.6 which is lower than the previous macroseismic computation (MW 5.7). Moreover, the topic of assessing macroseismic intensity in the presence of multiple shocks has been also investigated, proposing an unconventional approach to presenting the macroseismic data: an overall picture of the cumulative effects produced by all the seismic sequence is given to support a partial but faithful reconstruction of the second shock. This approach is inspired by the common experience in interpreting historical seismic sequences and gives a picture of the impact of the 1984 events on the territory. 相似文献
2.
地形对地震动的影响比较复杂, 考虑地形放大效应的地震滑坡稳定性分析需要选择合适的地震动参数. 本文使用自贡地形影响台阵记录到的2008年汶川MS8.0地震主震加速度记录, 分析了地震动峰值加速度、 阿里亚斯烈度以及90%能量持时随地形高度的变化, 探讨了地形效应作用下峰值加速度和阿里亚斯烈度与地震动作用下斜坡稳定性的相关性. 结果表明: ① 地形场地对峰值加速度和阿里亚斯烈度均有显著的放大效应. 地形放大效应较为复杂, 其整体上随台站高度的增加而增大, 水平向的放大效应大于竖直向. 水平向峰值加速度的放大系数为1.1—1.8, 阿里亚斯烈度的放大系数为1.2—3.3; 竖直向相应放大系数分别为1.1—1.3和1.2—1.7. ② 地形对地震动持时也有一定的放大效应, 但不同高度、 不同分量的放大效应没有显著差异, 其放大系数均约为1.3. ③ 阿里亚斯烈度和峰值加速度均能很好地表征地形对地震动的影响, 与地震动对斜坡稳定性的影响具有很强的相关性. 与峰值加速度相比, 阿里亚斯烈度综合了地震动的多方面特征, 可以更好地表征地形对地震动的影响, 与地震动作用下斜坡稳定性的相关性更强. 相似文献
3.
APPLICATION OF TWO SIMPLIFIED NEWMARK MODELS TO THE ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY THE 2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE 
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下载免费PDF全文 At present, with the wide application of the Newmark method, various Newmark empirical formulas with different ground motion parameters have been fitted by many researchers based on global strong-motion records. However, the existing study about the Wenchuan earthquake does not quantitatively evaluate the applicability of different Newmark models based on the actual landslides distribution. The aim of this paper is to present a comparison between observed landslides from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and predicted landslides using Newmark displacement method based on different ground motion parameters. The factor-of-safety map and critical acceleration(ac)map in the study area are obtained by using the terrain data and geological data. The distribution of Arias intensity(Ia)and PGA in the study area is obtained by using the attenuation formulas of Arias intensity(Ia)and PGA, which is regressed by Wenchuan ground motion records. Based on the distribution of Arias intensity(Ia)and PGA parameters, we obtained the predicted locations of landslide using Newmark regression equations which are generated using global strong-motion records. The results shows that the assessment results can better reflect the macroscopic distribution characteristics of co-seismic landslides, most predicted landslide cells are distributed on the two sides of the Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault, especially the Pengguan complex rock mass in the hanging wall. The abilities to predict landslide occurrence of the two Newmark simplified models are different. On the whole, the evaluated result of simplified model based on parameter Ia is better than that based on PGA parameter. The GFC values obtained by the Newmark model of Ia and PGA parameters are 65.7% and 34.9%respectively. The evaluated result based on Ia can better reflect the macro distribution of coseismic landslides. The Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of parameter Ia is 26.5%, and the Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of PGA parameter is 10.3%. However the total area of predicted landslides accounts for 2.4% of the study area, which indicates that the predicted landslide cells are greater than the observed landslide cells. This reminds us that depending on the current input of shear strength and ground-motion parameters, we can only conduct landslide hazard assessment in macro areas, the ability to predict landslide can be improved using more accurate topographic data and input parameters. 相似文献
4.
This study analyses the performance of residential buildings in the town of Hveragerði in South Iceland during the 29 May 2008 Mw 6.3 Ölfus Earthquake. The earthquake occurred very close to the town, approximately 3–4 km from it. Ground shaking caused by the earthquake was recorded by a dense strong-motion array in the town. The array provided high-quality three-component ground acceleration data which is used to quantify a hazard scenario. In addition, surveys conducted in the town in the aftermath of the earthquake have provided information on macroseismic intensity at various locations in the town. Detailed information regarding the building stock in the town is collected, and their seismic vulnerability models are created by using building damage data obtained from the June 2000 South Iceland earthquakes. Damage to buildings are then simulated by using the scenario hazard and vulnerability models. Damage estimates were also obtained by conducting a survey. Simulated damage based on the scenario macroseismic intensity is found to be similar to damage estimated from survey data. The buildings performed very well during the earthquake—damage suffered was only 5 % of the insured value on the average. Correlation between actual damage and recorded ground-motion parameters is found to be statistically insignificant. No significant correlation of damage was observed, even with macroseismic intensity. Whereas significant correlation was observed between peak ground velocity and macroseismic intensity, neither of them appear to be good indicators of damage to buildings in the study area. This lack of correlation is partly due to good seismic capacity of buildings and partly due to the ordinal nature of macroseismic intensity scale. Consistent with experience from many past earthquakes, the survey results indicate that seismic risk in South Iceland is not so much due to collapse of buildings but rather due to damage to non-structural components and building contents. 相似文献
5.
Mathilde B. Sørensen Dietrich Stromeyer Gottfried Grünthal 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2010
The use of shake maps in terms of macroseismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems as well as intensity based seismic hazard assessments provides a valuable supplement to typical studies based on recorded ground motion parameters. A requirement for such applications is ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity, which have the advantages of good data availability and the direct relation of intensity to earthquake damage. In the current study, we derive intensity prediction equations for the Vrancea region in Romania, which is characterized by the frequent occurrence of large intermediate depth earthquakes giving rise to a peculiar anisotropic ground shaking distribution. The GMPE have a physical basis and take the anisotropic intensity distribution into account through an empirical regional correction function. Furthermore, the relations are easy to implement for the user. Relations are derived in terms of epicentral, rupture and Joyner–Boore distance and the obtained relations all provide a new intensity estimate with an uncertainty of ca. 0.6 intensity units. 相似文献
6.
自从现代地震学形成以来， 人们一直沿用地震烈度来度量地震的破坏后果和破坏程度， 地震工程师也致力于给地震烈度赋以恰当的物理量， 一方面旨在解释地震的破坏作用， 同时也希望能用这个物理量来代表地震对结构的一种输入荷载， 以供工程抗震设计使用. 这就是研究ldquo;地震烈度物理标准rdquo;工作的任务. 但是由于不同结构的破坏机理很不相同， 甚至同一类结构由于层高、 使用的材料以及所在场地的差别， 即使在同一地震作用下， 其震害也会有很大的差异. 此外， 导致结构破坏的地震动因素也十分复杂， 绝不限于地震动峰值一个因素. 因此本文指出， 新的烈度标准应不仅能反映各种结构的具体特点， 还应在研究地震动幅值参数的同时进一步考虑与地震动能量有关的参数， 特别是针对不同结构应采用不同的地震动参数. 相似文献
7.
本文以芦山地震强地面运动记录为基础资料,研究了阿里亚斯强度和Newmark位移两个地震动参数的空间分布特征、衰减特征以及与其它地震动参数的相关性。研究结果表明:阿里亚斯强度的空间分布与地震断层空间展布和地震破裂方向具有相关性;阿里亚斯强度与峰值加速度（PGA）有较好的相关性,场地条件对二者的相关性具有显著影响,PGA相同时,场地越软,阿里亚斯强度越大;震级也是影响阿里亚斯强度与PGA相关性的重要因素,PGA相同时,震级越大,阿里亚斯强度也越大;Newmark位移与PGA和阿里亚斯强度均具有较好的相关性,与阿里亚斯强度的相关性更强,相关系数可达0.94以上。研究还表明,现有模型不能较好地描述芦山地震的阿里亚斯强度和Newmark位移衰减特征,这说明了芦山地震在持时和破裂过程上的特殊性。芦山地震的特殊性揭示了我国西部地震地质构造环境与其它地区有显著差异,因此应该研究适用于我国西部地区地震的地震动参数预测方程。本文的研究结果对我们从更多方面了解地震动特性以及我国地震灾害的预测预防具有重要的科学意义和应用价值。 相似文献
8.
Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake
maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability
also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy.
This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes
in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties
in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained
through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes
the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function
of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations
are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in
the magnitude range M
w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible
in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region
and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit. 相似文献
9.
L. Sirovich 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1997,16(6):353-362
Recent tests on a series of earthquakes in California and Nevada suggest that in some regions the approximate shapes of the territories with equal earthquake-induced damage (expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity) could be synthetically traced out with a simple formula. This formula takes into account some gross features of the source: depth and length, unilateral or bilateral rupture, radiation patterns, rupture velocity, and directivity. Having been formulated on an empirical basis, the formula is however compatible with the so-called asymptotic approach, in which the far-field component of the Green's function is used. This paper presents the synthetic isoseismals of the earthquakes at Cedar Mountain, Nevada, 1932; Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley, Nevada, 1954; and Coalinga, California, 1983. An overall consistency, from acceptable to remarkable, between the observed intensity patterns and the synthetically back-predicted intensity has been obtained for them. Where the detailed modelling techniques available today are inapplicable, due to insufficient information on the features of the seismic sources, or to save time and money, the new formula may be utilizable for improving seismic hazard calculations.The formula was also used inversely for back-predicting geometric-kinematic parameters of the Coalinga 1983 earthquake from macroseismic maps. This gave characteristics for its source which are in good agreement with the majority of data inferred from modelling and from analyzing modern instrumental recordings. This striking result opens new perspectives in retrieving information on the source of ancient earthquakes for which only macroseismic information is available. 相似文献
10.
Maria-Jose Jiménez Dario Albarello Mariano García-Fernández 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(7):1849-1867
In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps. 相似文献
11.
山区道路沿线的人工边坡很多。强震时,这些边坡经常会出现严重的破坏,除直接造成的损失而外,还会断绝交通给防震、抗震救灾带来极大的困难。本文通过云南通海、昭通、辽宁海城等地震区、公路和铁路的人工岩质路堑边坡的宏观震害资料,试图对此类边坡的抗地震稳定性及其受震破坏的规律性进行分析以探求震区岩质边坡稳定条件,为设计此类的边坡提供必要的依据。 相似文献
12.
为探讨“最不利地震动”概念在地下结构抗震设计中的适用性,以软土地铁区间隧道为对象建立相应的地层-结构动力分析模型。以直径变形率为分析指标,基于动力时程方法研究18条不同输入地震动作用下隧道结构动力响应的分布及差异性,得出基于隧道地震响应的输入地震动排序,并通过调幅手段对比分析了地面峰值加速度（PGA）和隧道埋深变化对隧道结构地震动响应排序的影响规律。最后,评价了不同输入地震动参数,包括峰值加速度、峰值速度、峰值位移、绝对累积速度（CAV）和阿里亚斯（Arias）强度（IA）与隧道地震响应之间的相关性。分析结果表明:① 随着PGA从0.5 m/s2增加到2 m/s2,地震动排序发生明显变化,并且不同输入地震动引起的隧道地震响应差异显著提高,最不利地震动引起的直径变形率与平均值的比值从1.1增加到1.9;② 隧道从浅埋到深埋的过程中,地震动排序结果基本保持不变;③ PGA为2 m/s2时,隧道地震响应与基岩面峰值速度（PBV）的相关性最好,相关系数达到0.94,其次是与基岩面峰值位移（PBD）和IA,相关系数分别为0.62和0.48,相关性最差的是基岩面峰值加速度（PBA）和CAV,相关系数仅为0.37和0.22。研究结论可为今后软土隧道的输入地震动选择提供科学依据。 相似文献
13.
An energy-based envelope function is developed for use in the stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motion. The envelope function is directly related to the Arias intensity of the ground motion as well to the manner in which this Arias intensity is built-up over time. It is shown that this build-up, represented by a Husid plot, can be very well modelled using a simple lognormal distribution. The proposed envelope makes use of parameters that are commonly available in seismic design situations, either following a deterministic scenario-type analysis or following a more comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), either in terms of Arias intensity or the more common spectral acceleration. The shape parameters of the envelope function are estimated following the calculation of the analytic envelopes for a large number of records from PEER Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) database. The envelope may also be used to predict the distribution of peak ground acceleration values corresponding to an earthquake scenario. The distribution thus obtained is remarkably consistent with those of the recent NGA models. 相似文献
14.
Cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) is an important ground motion intensity measure used in seismic hazard analysis. Based on the Next Generation Attenuation strong motion database, a simple ground‐motion prediction equation is proposed for the geometric mean of as‐recorded horizontal components of CAVs using mixed regression analysis. The proposed model employs only four parameters and has a simple functional form. Validation tests are conducted to compare the proposed model with the recently developed Campbell–Bozorgnia (CB10) model using subsets of the strong motion database, as well as several recent earthquakes that are not used in developing the model. It is found that the predictive capability of the proposed model is comparable with the CB10 model, which employs a complex functional form and more parameters. The study also corroborates previous findings that CAV has higher predictability than other intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration. The high predictability of CAV warrants the use of the proposed simple model as an alternative in seismic hazard analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Ch. Kkallas C. B. Papazachos D. Boore Ch. Ventouzi B. N. Margaris 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(11):5121-5150
We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, IMM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of VS30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information. 相似文献
16.
Chloé Lesueur Michel Cara Oona Scotti Antoine Schlupp Christophe Sira 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):313-333
Comparison between accelerometric and macroseismic observations is made for three M w?=?4.5 earthquakes, which occurred in north-eastern France and south-western Germany in 2003 and 2004. Scalar and spectral instrumental parameters are processed from the accelerometric data recorded by nine accelerometric stations located between 29 and 180 km from the epicentres. Macroseismic data are based on French Internet reports. In addition to the single questionnaire intensity, analysis of the internal correlation between the encoded answers highlights four predominant fields of questions bearing different physical meanings: (1) “vibratory motions of small objects”, (2) “displacement and fall of objects”, (3) “acoustic noise” and (4) “personal feelings”. Best correlations between macroseismic and instrumental observations are obtained when the macroseismic parameters are averaged over 10-km-radius circles around each station. Macroseismic intensities predicted by published peak ground velocity (PGV)–intensity relationships agree with our observed intensities, contrary to those based on peak ground acceleration (PGA). Correlation between the macroseismic and instrumental data for intensities between II and V (EMS-98) is better for PGV than for PGA. Correlation with the response spectra exhibits clear frequency dependence for all macroseismic parameters. Horizontal and vertical components are significantly correlated with the macroseismic parameters between 1 and 10 Hz, a range corresponding to both natural frequencies of most buildings and high energy content in the seismic ground motion. Between 10 and 25 Hz, a clear lack of correlation between macroseismic and instrumental observations exists. It could be due to a combination of the decrease in the energy signal above 10 Hz, a high level of anthropogenic noise and an increase in variability in soil conditions. Above 25 Hz, the correlation coefficients between the acceleration response spectra and the macroseismic parameters are close to the PGA correlation level. 相似文献
17.
Realistic Modeling of Seismic Wave Ground Motion in Beijing City 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
— Algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic three-component seismograms have been computed for the Xiji area and Beijing City. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible for the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone in the Xiji area associated with the 1976 Tangshan earthquake as well as with the ground motion recorded in Beijing city in the wake of the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake. 相似文献
18.
Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Leonardo Chiauzzi Angelo Masi Marco Mucciarelli Marco Vona Francesca Pacor Giovanna Cultrera Frantisek Gallovič Antonio Emolo 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2012,10(2):517-545
In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been
estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability
assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with
magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation
techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a
set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in
a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by
hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This
relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms
amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability
Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza.
The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index
or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes. 相似文献
19.
地震滑坡会对自然环境和人民生活带来极大破坏,在大区域范围内对边坡遭受地震影响的程度进行评价判断,主要采用具有预测性质的潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评估的方法。因此,深入研究边坡地震危险性分析的基本理论并作出符合实际的危险性分布图对工程建设和灾害防治具有较大意义。梳理并阐述具有预测性质的边坡地震危险性分析所需数据资料及各类数据的研究进展,将利用永久位移法进行边坡地震危险性评价所需数据归纳为三种：(1)边坡在地震影响下破坏程度的判定依据;(2)区域地震动参数如峰值加速度、阿里亚斯强度;(3)边坡坡体基本参数如黏聚力、摩擦角、重度、滑块厚度、坡角等。边坡地震危险性评价的准确程度与这三类数据的研究程度与准确性有关。文章对三类数据分别详细阐述各自的研究现状与成果应用,最后分析理论存在的部分问题以及以后的研究方向。 相似文献
20.
In the process of updating existing PSHA maps in Central Asia, a first step is the evaluation of the seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by applying a data driven method. Following the Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (SASHA) [11], the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of any given intensity value over a fixed exposure time, is mainly based on the seismic histories available at different locations without requiring any a-priori assumption about seismic zonation. The effects of earthquakes not included in the seismic history can be accounted by propagating the epicentral information through a Intensity Prediction Equation developed for the analyzed area. In order to comply with existing building codes in the region that use macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, we evaluated the seismic hazard at 2911 localities using a macroseismic catalog composed by 5322 intensity data points relevant to 75 earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.6–8.3. The results show that for most of the investigated area the intensity having a probability of at least 10% to be exceeded in 50 years is VIII. The intensity rises to IX for some area struck by strong earthquakes in the past, like the Chou-Kemin-Chilik fault zone in northern Tien-Shan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, or in Gissar range between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These values are about one intensity unit less than those evaluated in the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Ulomov, The GSHAP Region 7 working group [29]). Moreover, hazard curves have been extracted for the main towns of Central Asia and the results compared with the estimates previously obtained. A good agreement has been found for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan), while a lower probability of occurrence of I=VIII has been obtained for Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and a larger one for I=IX in Almaty (Kazakhstan). 相似文献