共查询到16条相似文献，搜索用时 203 毫秒
1.
用按时序分阶段的评估方法建立了城市地下交通火灾风险评估体系的架构,并用改进的层次分析法建立了多层次评估指标权重模型,建立了判断火灾风险的评价标准。以北京地铁二号线某车站为例,在对其现有设备资料和运行特性进行详细调研分析的基础上,把风险评估结构划分为目标层、准则层、指标层,并按照现有的参考依据对各项影响火灾安全的风险因素进行赋值计算,得到了火灾各个阶段该车站的火灾风险水平,并对评价中的薄弱环节,提出了有针对性的建议。研究结果可供地下交通系统火灾应急预案制定参考。 相似文献
2.
基于指标体系的风险建模与评估是目前灾害风险分析与评估中应用最广泛的方法。本文首先分析评价不同学者的地震灾害风险评估指标体系;在此基础上,选取指标体系相对简单的城市防震减灾能力法和考虑因素较多的地震灾害风险系数法对乌鲁木齐市各区县开展地震灾害风险评估。评估结果表明:不同评价方法的侧重点不同,造成评估结果有一定的差异性,评估体系指标大而全并不意味着评估结果更加合理。地震灾害风险评估指标体系的建立需要兼顾可操作性、实用性、全面性及可量化性等要求。 相似文献
3.
由于双重灾种叠加，地震次生火灾曾经带来过巨大生命财产损失，并始终严重威胁人类社会。梳理历史上几次重大地震次生火灾情况，归纳地震次生火灾的成灾与蔓延研究成果，讨论现有研究成果中常用的分析手段和研究方法；从工程结构和装备设施，以及灾害区划单元两个层面总结分析了地震次生火灾的风险与损失评估研究成果；从民用建筑、油气化工设施、核电站、灾后安置点与林业等多个方面探讨地震次生火灾的预防和控制研究进展。采用文献计量学方法对近二十年以"地震次生火灾"为主题的中文文献进行统计，并分析研究热度与地震事件的联系。 相似文献
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震后建筑火灾涉及因素多,传统评估模型忽略了建筑截面温度变化与建筑形变程度的影响,导致评估准确度较低。为解决此问题,通过模糊数学方法建立震后建筑火灾危险性评估模型。在建立判断矩阵的基础上,获取评估模型权重,确定隶属度矩阵;通过确定震后建筑火灾后截面温度变化评估的因素集与评语集,进行单因素评判,为评估因素集中的因素赋予权重,实现一级模糊评估;再将一级评估结果作为二级评估的单因素评估,结合模糊数学分析完成对震后建筑火灾危险性的评估。实验中以建筑横梁截面温度变化与形变程度为指标,对震后建筑火灾危险性进行评估。实验结果表明,采用所提模型进行危险性评估,震后在发生火灾时建筑结构受到火灾影响,横梁截面温度越高,导致形变程度越大,危险性更高,模拟实验结果与实际情况更加接近,所提模型评估精度高。 相似文献
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地震灾害具有明显的突发性和破坏性特征,对于地铁工程而言极易带来事故甚至灾害的风险,在地震灾害背景下地铁运营期的风险评估与管控问题越来越受到学术界的关注。此文以某地震频发城市地铁线为研究对象,在地铁运营期安全风险管理理论基础上进行地铁运营事故分析,采用模糊评价法开展了地铁运营期的安全风险评价研究,并对地铁运营安全风险管理提出对策。研究揭示了地铁运营期存在的安全风险类型及其影响因素,并提出了运营期安全隐患的改进意见,提高地铁运营期的安全风险管理水平,为地震背景下地铁运营安全风险管理提供指导借鉴。 相似文献
6.
基于多层次可拓评价法的城市燃气管线风险评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以改进的肯特危险指数评分法对城市燃气管道的危险因素进行识分析,确立了城市燃气管线风险评价指标体系。将传统的可拓学方法改进为多层次可拓评价法,对其中的节域物元、关联度和等级评定程序进行了调整,并建立了相应的准则,对评价对象进行多级综合评价。通过多层次评价,可以获得不同子指标各自的风险等级以及评价对象总体的风险等级。以邯郸市某段燃气管线为例,运用城市燃气管线风险评价模型进行风险评价,得出其多层次风险等级值。通过对比及数据分析,证实了本文方法的可靠性。 相似文献
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《国际地震动态》2019,(11)
正重大岩土工程在建设和运行中存在着若干不确定因素,进而导致重大岩土工程风险的存在。由于风险评估能够为重大岩土工程建设的科学决策提供重要依据,因而受到学术界和工程界的广泛关注,是当前岩土工程领域研究的重点课题。半个世纪以来,岩土工程界在该领域开展了一系列的研究工作,取得了一些有价值的研究成果。应该强调,重大岩土工程风险评估作为科学问题提出并服务于工程建设决策的研究起步较晚,同时重大岩土工程风险评估也是一个涉及多学科的复杂问题,开展这一领域的研究具有很大的挑战。本文主要研究重大岩土工程风险评估基础理论,在工程风险的基本概念、风险评估框架、风险因素分析与风险评估方法、可接受风险标准等方面开展一系列基础理论研究,取得如下主要成果:(1)重大岩土工程风险的基本概念研究。系统梳理和总结了风险定义的演变过程,从哲学层面上总结分析了风险的概念,认为风险定义具有本体地位,把风险定义为,对人类有价值的事物产生不确定性后果的状态。在论述实在论和建构论风险观的基础上,提出风险理论连续统一体的概念。根据本文的风险定义,在分析重大岩土工程不确定性的来源及其分类的基础上,把重大岩土工程风险定义为工程失事对人员生命、经济、环境与社会以及工程自身等造成潜在的损失及其可能性。(2)重大岩土工程风险评估基本框架研究。在讨论和分析重大岩土工程风险研究现状和背景基础上,构建了风险科学与岩土工程相结合的理论框架和学科体系,目的是将风险科学理论和方法与岩土工程相结合,解决重大岩土工程风险评估的内容与框架问题。本文把重大岩土工程风险评估划分为明确背景、风险识别、风险估计与风险评价4个阶段,并给出了工程风险评估的基本流程。根据风险评估基本流程,提出了重大岩土工程风险评估研究内容,具体包括风险评估内涵、风险因素分析框架、风险评价标准和风险评估方法研究等4个方面内容。论文认为,重大岩土工程风险评估是风险科学在岩土工程中应用的初级阶段,基于风险的重大岩土工程设计理论则是风险科学在岩土工程中应用的高级阶段和发展方向,认为重大岩土工程应由基于性能设计向基于风险设计理念转变。(3)重大岩土工程风险因素分析和风险评估方法研究。建立了重大岩土工程风险因素分析框架,主要包括外部的危险性因素和工程内部的易损性因素以及工程失事影响区域承灾体的脆弱性因素。结合风险评估必须回答的3个问题,本文系统地论述了重大岩土工程风险识别方法、风险概率估计方法和工程失事的损失估计方法、风险估计方法以及减轻风险的评价方法。其中,岩土工程风险概率估计采用可靠度法和易损性估计方法,并给出了多种失效失稳破坏模式下的风险概率估计方法;损失估计方法主要讨论了损失估计的基本模型、生命损失估计、经济损失估计、社会与环境影响估计方法。根据我国的基本国情,探索建立重大岩土工程风险估计货币化方法。(4)重大岩土工程可接受风险标准的初步研究。论文首先阐明可接受风险概念及其标准。在问卷调查的基础上,参考国内外已有的研究成果,提出了我国重大岩土工程生命、经济、社会与环境可接受风险标准的建议值。岩土工程个人生命可接受风险标准的建议值为:个人可容忍风险标准为10–5/年,可接受风险标准为10–6/年,可忽略风险标准为10–8/年;绘制了重大岩土工程社会生命可接受风险的FN曲线(生命损失数量累积概率曲线),并建议了曲线的相关参数;绘制了重大岩土工程经济可接受风险标准的FD曲线(经济损失金额累积概率曲线),并给出曲线的相关参数的建议值;根据生活质量指数(LQI)和生命统计价值(VSL)模型计算了减轻生命风险的公共决策成本标准;提出了社会稳定与环境可接受风险的等级标准。这项工作可为重大岩土工程风险评价提供标准,为减轻工程风险决策提供了重要依据。(5)开展高土石坝地震风险评估示例研究。本文通过搜集、整理和分析国内外学者公开发表的高土石坝震害实例的研究文献,对高土石坝地震危险性、地震破坏形式和地震易损性进行了分析。按照本文提出的重大岩土工程风险评估流程、方法和风险可接受标准,对某高土石坝地震风险进行了评估。论文对该高土石坝地震风险进行了背景分析、风险识别、风险概率估计、工程自身破坏损失估计。估计了地震溃坝情况下,溃坝下游区域的灾害损失。选取坝坡失稳和永久变形两种破坏模式开展高土石坝地震风险概率估计。对于坝坡失稳破坏模式,采取相对可靠度法的安全率估算失效概率;对于坝体永久变形破坏模式,采用坝顶相对沉陷地震易损性分析方法,绘制出了不同地震动加速度的工程地震易损性概率曲线。该高土石坝地震破坏直接经济损失根据易损性指标进行评估。假设该高土石坝出现地震溃坝,对工程下游影响区域的生命损失、经济损失、社会与环境影响进行了粗略的估计。根据本文提出重大岩土工程可接受风险评价标准,给出了某高土石坝地震风险评价的结论。 相似文献
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在强烈地震发生后,会引发建筑火灾等次生灾害,涉及因素较多,传统火灾危险性数学模型忽略了强震后既有建筑发生火灾时不同因素的随机性与模糊性特性,难于建立健全的评估数学模型,导致评估精度低。为解决该问题,通过分析强震后既有建筑火灾影响,用因素模糊数学方法建立强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估数学模型及评估体系。具体方法是对评估指标体系中各层因素针对上层因素影响进行评分,建立判断矩阵,获取权重。确定隶属度矩阵,获取强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估的因素集与评语集,构造单因素评判,给评估集中的因素赋予权重,进行一级模糊评估。把一级评估结果当成二级评估的单因素评估,通过模糊数学理论完成对强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的评估,得到综合评估结果。实验结果表明,采用所提模型进行危险性评估,得到结果符合实际情况,与其他模型相比,所提模型评估精度高。 相似文献
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GIS-based risk assessment of grassland fire disaster in western Jilin province, China 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Tong Zhijun Zhang Jiquan Liu Xingpeng 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):463-471
Grassland fire disasters have occurred frequently and adversely affected livestock agriculture and social-economic development
greatly in the grassland regions of Jilin province, China. Moreover, both the frequency of grassland fire and loss from them
are considered to be increasing with the global warming and economic development. This study presents a methodology for risk
analysis and assessment of grassland fire disaster, taking western Jilin province as a case study area based on geographic
information system (GIS). The composite grassland fire disaster risk index (GFDRI) combined the hazard of grassland fire,
the exposure of the region, the vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability for grassland fire disaster of
the region were developed to assess and compare risk of grassland fire disaster in different counties in western Jilin province,
China using the natural disaster risk index method (NDRIM), analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted comprehensive method
(WCM). Then, the risk degree of grassland fire disaster was assessed and regionalized in the western Jilin province, China
based on GFDRI by using GIS. It is shown that the most places of western Jilin province were in mediate risk. Zhenlai, Tongyu
were in heavy risk. Taobei, Ningjiang, Fuyu were in light risk. The information obtained from interviewing the district official
committees in relation to result compiled was statistically evaluated. The GFDRI was developed to be an easily understandable
tool that can be used to assess and compare the relative risk of grassland fire disaster in different counties in t western
Jilin province, China, and to compare the different relative contributions of various factors, e.g., frequency of grassland
fire and quality of emergency evacuation plan. The GFDRI is specifically intend to support local and national government agencies
of grassland fire disaster management as they (1) make resource allocation decisions; (2) make high-level planning decisions;
and (3) raise public awareness of grassland fire disaster risk, its causes, and ways to manage it. 相似文献
12.
Laura Serra Marc Saez Pablo Juan Diego Varga Jorge Mateu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(7):1671-1684
Wildfires have been studied in many ways, for instance as a spatial point pattern or through modeling the size of fires or the relative risk of big fires. Lately a large variety of complex statistical models can be fitted routinely to complex data sets, in particular wildfires, as a result of widely accessible high-level statistical software, such as R. The objective in this paper is to model the occurrence of big wildfires (greater than a given extension of hectares) using an adapted two-part econometric model, specifically a hurdle model. The methodology used in this paper is useful to determine those factors that help any fire to become a big wildfire. Our proposal and methodology can be routinely used to contribute to the management of big wildfires. 相似文献
13.
Ing-Jia Chiou Ching-Ho Chen Wei-Lin Liu Shiao-Mei Huang Yu-Min Chang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(3):775-792
“Disaster risk assessment” is important in the planning of risk management strategies that reduce societal losses. However, governmental agencies in Taiwan generally assess risks that emerge from debris flows without adequately considering risk management and taking a systems approach. This work proposes an approach to thoroughly consider the interactive influence mechanism of debris flow disaster risk. Additionally, a systematic method for assessing disaster risks is developed. This proposed method can be used in the current risk assessment and as a basis for management strategy planning. Based on systems thinking, the components and attributes of a conceptual system of disaster risk management associated with debris flows in a river basin are identified. Subsequently, a conceptual mitigation–hazard–exposure–resistance framework and an indicator system for assessing the debris flow disaster risks in a river basin are identified. The disaster risks for each exposed community in each drainage zone can be systematically calculated based on the current status or plans of prevention and evacuation measures using the proposed indicator system. A case study of implementing the proposed methodology that involves the Chishan River Basin is presented, in which disaster risk according to the current status of prevention and evacuation measures is assessed. Drainage zones and communities with a significant debris flow disaster risk are located; this risk is associated with a lack of adequate prevention and evacuation measures that have been planned of government agencies. Analytical results indicate that the proposed methodology can systematically and effectively assess the disaster risks of a river basin. The proposed methodology provides a valuable reference for governmental agencies that must manage disaster risk associated with debris flows. 相似文献
14.
室外风对高层建筑外保温层火灾发展的影响研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
近年来,由外墙保温材料引起的高层建筑火灾频繁发生,使得高层建筑室外火灾已经成为当下防火安全工程研究的热点议题。高层建筑外墙火灾受室外风影响较大,本研究采用CFD（Computational Fluid Dynamics）火灾模拟软件FDS,针对当前典型高层住宅建筑进行室外风作用下外保温材料火灾特性的模拟研究,分析了不同风向风速作用下外墙保温材料的火灾燃烧性能,研究了室外风对火灾烟气温度、运动速度、CO体积分数、可见度、火灾热释放速率等参数的影响。研究结果表明：室外风对火灾热释放速率等火灾作用参数有着较大影响,并存在一定的规律性。研究成果对未来高层节能建筑的防火设计施工具有一定的借鉴意义。 相似文献
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An integrated fuzzy simulation-assessment method (FSAM) was developed for assessing environmental risks from petroleum hydrocarbon contamination in ground water. In the FSAM, techniques of fuzzy simulation and fuzzy risk assessment were coupled into a general framework to reflect a variety of system uncertainties. A petroleum-contaminated site located in western Canada was selected as a study case for demonstrating applicability of the proposed method. The risk assessment results demonstrated that system uncertainties would significantly impact expressions of risk-level outputs. A relatively deterministic expression of the risks would have clearer representations of the study problem but may miss valuable uncertain information; conversely, an assessment under vaguer system conditions would help reveal potential consequences of adverse effects but would suffer from a higher degree of fuzziness in presenting the modeling outputs. Based on the risk assessment results, a decision analysis procedure was used to calculate a general risk index (GRI) to help identify proper responsive actions. The proposed method was useful for evaluating risks within a system containing multiple factors with complicated uncertainties and interactions and providing support for identifying proper site management strategies. 相似文献
16.
Jianzhong Zhang Claudia Kuenzer Anke Tetzlaff Dieter Oertel Boris Zhukov Wolfgang Wagner 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2007,63(3-4):135-147
In this paper we present thermal characteristics of coal fires as measured during simulated fires under an experimental setting in Germany in July 2002. It is thus a continuation of the previously published paper “Thermal surface characteristics of coal fire 1: Results of in-situ measurement”, in which we presented temperature measurements of real subsurface coal fires in China [Zhang, J., Kuenzer, C., accepted for publication. Thermal Surface Characteristics of Coal Fires 1: Results of in-situ measurements. Accepted for publication at Journal of Applied Geophysics.]. The focus is on simulated coal fires, which are less complex in nature than fires under natural conditions. In the present study we simulated all the influences usually occurring under natural conditions in a controllable manner (uniform background material of known thermal properties, known ventilation pathways, homogeneous coal substrate), creating two artificial outdoor coal fires under simplified settings. One surface coal fire and one subsurface coal fire were observed over the course of 2 days. The set up of the fires allowed for measurements not always feasible under “real” in-situ conditions: thus compared to the in-situ investigations presented in paper one we could retrieve numerous temperature measurements inside of the fires. Single temperature measurements, diurnal profiles and airborne thermal surveying present the typical temperature patterns of a small surface-and a subsurface fire under undisturbed conditions (easily accessible terrain, 24 hour measurements period, homogeneous materials). We found that the outside air temperature does not influence the fire's surface temperature (up to 900 °C), while fire centre temperatures of up to 1200 °C strongly correlate with surface temperatures of the fire. The fires could heat their surrounding up to a distance of 4.5 m. However, thermal anomalies on the background surface only persist as long as the fire is burning and disappear very fast if the heat source is removed. Furthermore, heat outside of the fires is transported mainly by convection and not by radiation. In spatial thermal line scanner data the diurnal thermal patterns of the coal fire are clearly represented. Our experiments during that data collection also visualize the thermal anomaly differences between covered (underground) and uncovered (surface) coal fires. The latter could not be observed in-situ in a real coal fire area. Sub-surface coal fires express a much weaker signal than open surface fires and contrast only by few degrees against the background. In airborne thermal imaging scanner data the fires are also well represented. Here we could show that the mid-infrared domain (3.8 μm) is more suitable to pick up very hot anomalies, compared to the common thermal (8.8 μm) domain. Our results help to understand coal fires and their thermal patterns as well as the limitations occurring during their analysis. We believe that the results presented here can practicably help for the planning of coal fire thermal mapping campaigns — including remote sensing methods and the thermal data can be included into numerical coal fire modelling as initial or boundary conditions. 相似文献