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1.
Rrapo Ormeni 《Tectonophysics》2011,497(1-4):114-121
This paper describes the one-dimensional (1D) velocity model computed by VELEST in the SEISAN seismic analysis system, inverting re-picked P-wave and S-wave arrival times recorded during 2002–2006 by the Albanian, Montenegro, Thessalonica and Macedonia seismic networks. The re-picked data yield P-wave and S-wave velocities proved to be more suitable compared to bulletin data for this detailed inversion study. Seismic phases recorded by the Albania seismic network and integrated with data from the Montenegro, Thessalonica and Macedonia networks are used to prepare the Albanian seismic bulletin. Earthquake hypocenters from the Albanian bulletins have also location errors that are negligible for civil protection purposes, large scale seismotectonic analyses and more accurate hypocentral determinations which are necessary for detailed seismotectonic and geodynamic studies.It was noted that the smoothness of the velocity variation increased with depth. A velocity of 5.5 km/s was calculated for the upper crust, 6.1 km/s was calculated for the middle crust and 6.9 km/s was computed for the lower crust. P wave velocity was 7.85 km/s at depth of 50 km and for the upper mantle it is 8.28 km/s. Using the improved velocity model, the earthquakes which occurred in Albania in the past 5 years were able to be relocated, achieving constrained hypocentral determinations for events in Albania. The interpretation of the 1 D velocity models infers interesting features of the deep structure of Albania. These results represent an important step towards more detailed seismotectonic analyses.  相似文献   

2.
Three aquifer systems as deep, middle, and shallow were identified in the Kazan trona ore deposit area. The flow conditions and the interaction between various layers were conceptualized into a site hydrogeological model. Each aquifer system was hydraulically and chemically characterized and represented in a numerical groundwater model. The resulting model has been calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions using available data. The flow model was used in conjunction with a three-dimensional solute transport model to assess the impacts of the pilot well solution mining of the trona deposit on groundwater resources during operation and post-operation periods. The results of operation period indicate that, even under the worse conditions (50 times increase in vertical hydraulic conductivity due to subsidence), ion contribution from the mine area with 118,000 mg/l maximum concentration would be about 58 mg/l into the deep aquifer system. This contribution is about 1.45% of the existing concentration (4,000 mg/l) in the deep aquifer. After 1,000 years of post-operation period, ion contribution from the mine area with maximum 119,000 mg/l concentration would be about 205 mg/l into the deep aquifer under extremely worse conditions. This contribution is about 5–20% of present concentrations in the deep aquifer. Retardation factors, which were not considered during model simulations would decrease the predicted concentrations. It is concluded that pilot well solution mining of the trona deposit would not have significant impact on the quality of groundwater resources in the overlying aquifers.  相似文献   

3.
In this study, multi-linear regression (MLR) approach is used to construct intermittent reservoir daily inflow forecasting system. To illustrate the applicability and effect of using lumped and distributed input data in MLR approach, Koyna river watershed in Maharashtra, India is chosen as a case study. The results are also compared with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. MLR attempts to model the relationship between two or more independent variables over a dependent variable by fitting a linear regression equation. The main aim of the present study is to see the consequences of development and applicability of simple models, when sufficient data length is available. Out of 47 years of daily historical rainfall and reservoir inflow data, 33 years of data is used for building the model and 14 years of data is used for validating the model. Based on the observed daily rainfall and reservoir inflow, various types of time-series, cause-effect and combined models are developed using lumped and distributed input data. Model performance was evaluated using various performance criteria and it was found that as in the present case, of well correlated input data, both lumped and distributed MLR models perform equally well. For the present case study considered, both MLR and ARIMA models performed equally sound due to availability of large dataset.  相似文献   

4.
Earthquake-induced deformations for a bridge approach earth embankment are predicted using a calibrated numerical model. The constitutive soil model is a modified hyperbolic model that uses Masing rules and incremental pore pressure relations. The model was calibrated using both laboratory and field data. A shaking table physical model was used to verify the numerical simulation. Additionally, the upper San Fernando dam was modeled to reproduce the deformations in the 1971 earthquake. The subsurface and embankment soil conditions were characterized using field and laboratory methods. The model developed was used to predict the earthquake-induced deformations of an approach embankment to Bridge A1466 in the NMSZ near Hayti, Missouri, where strong earthquakes M > 7.0 are anticipated in the next 50 years.  相似文献   

5.
A mathematical model was developed to predict the coal bed methane (CBM) production and carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in a coal seam accounting for the coal seam properties. The model predictions showed that, for a CBM production and dewatering process, the pressure could be reduced from 15.17 MPa to 1.56 MPa and the gas saturation increased up to 50% in 30 years for a 5.4 × 105 m2 of coal formation. For the CO2 sequestration process, the model prediction showed that the CO2 injection rate was first reduced and then slightly recovered over 3 to 13 years of injection, which was also evidenced by the actual in seam data. The model predictions indicated that the sweeping of the water in front of the CO2 flood in the cleat porosity could be important on the loss of injectivity. Further model predictions suggested that the injection rate of CO2 could be about 11 × 103 m3 per day; the injected CO2 would reach the production well, which was separated from the injection well by 826 m, in about 30 years. During this period, about 160 × 106 m3 of CO2 could be stored within a 21.4 × 105 m2 of coal seam with a thickness of 3 m.  相似文献   

6.
The cyclone wave parameters are predicted using Young’s parametric hurricane wave prediction model. The input cyclone tracks for this work are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center, USA. Extreme value analysis is carried out to obtain the wave heights and periods for 1 in 5, 10, 50 and 100 years return periods, respectively. The deep-water hindcast wave corresponding to 100 years from probable directions are allowed to propagate to Visakhapatnam coastal waters using nearshore spectral wind-wave mode. The offshore wave height for one in 100-year return period is 11.9 m, and the corresponding nearshore wave height at 10-m water depth varies between 4.6 and 5.6 m depending on the directional spreading. Weibull distribution is chosen to fit the 24 cyclonic data sets over a total period of 30 years (September 1972 to November 2002). This paper demonstrates usefulness of Young’s wave model for deep-water extreme wave hindcasting. Further, the results of the present study would be highly useful for assessing the design wave height for Visakhapatnam coast.  相似文献   

7.
The contact between wave‐influenced foreshore and aeolian‐influenced backshore sediments (BA boundary) in raised spit deposits (Skagen Odde) is here used as a proxy for palaeo‐sea level over the past 7600 years. The elevation of the BA boundary was measured at 57 sample sites along the northwestern coast of the spit, and the age of these sites determined by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of quartz grains. The elevation of the BA boundary with age gives past variation in relative sea level; relative sea level rose between c. 7600 and c. 6250 years ago, when it reached a peak value around 12.5 m above present mean sea level (apmsl), followed by a slow sea‐level fall until c. 4600 years ago before it dropped rapidly to reach 2 m apmsl c. 2000 years ago. From the new data it is tentatively deduced that the land uplift rate declined from about 3 mm a−1 6000 years ago to about 1.5 mm a−1 2000 years ago (low estimate), or alternatively from 5 mm a−1 5000 years ago to 1.5 mm a−1 2000 years ago (extreme estimate). These data indicate that the long‐term average rate of vertical land movement during the past 5000 years was around 1.8 mm a−1 (low estimate) or around 2.5 mm a−1 (extreme estimate). These values seem reasonable compared with a modern value of about 1.6 to 1.7 mm a−1. The lack of an independent data set illustrating the isostatic uplift history with time, however, precludes the construction of a well‐constrained eustatic sea‐level curve.  相似文献   

8.
Modelling groundwater and surface water is important for integrated water resources management, especially when interaction between the river and the aquifer is high. A transient groundwater and surface water flow model was built for Ruataniwha basin, New Zealand. The model covers a long-time period; starting in 1990, when water resources development in the area started, to present date. For a better resolution, the simulation period was divided into 59 stress periods, and each stress period was divided to 10 time steps. The model uses data obtained from surface water, and groundwater collected over the last 20 years. Rivers and streams were divided into 28 segments and flow and streambed data at the beginning and end of each segment was used. Parameter estimation and optimisation ‘PEST’ was used for automatic calibration of hydraulic conductivity, groundwater recharge and storativity; whereas riverbed conductance was manually calibrated. Model results show that the rivers gain from the aquifer considerably more than the river losses. The cumulative groundwater abstraction over the last 20 years is approximately 210 million m3. This amount is very low compared to other water budget components; however, the effect of groundwater abstraction on storage is significant. Based on the results of this study, it was found that the loss of storage over the last 20 years is more than 66 million m3. Results also reveal that the effect of groundwater abstraction on rivers and springs flow is significant. The rivers gain from the groundwater system, and the springs flow have been decreasing.  相似文献   

9.
MODFLOW is a groundwater modeling program. It can be compiled and remedied according to the practical applications. Because of its structure and fixed data format, MODFLOW can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for water resource management. The North China Plain (NCP), which is the politic, economic and cultural center of China, is facing with water resources shortage and water pollution. Groundwater is the main water resource for industrial, agricultural and domestic usage. It is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the NCP as an entire aquifer system. With the development of computer and internet information technology it is also necessary to integrate the groundwater model with the GIS technology. Because the geological and hydrogeological data in the NCP was mainly in MAPGIS format, the powerful function of GIS of disposing of and analyzing spatial data and computer languages such as Visual C and Visual Basic were used to define the relationship between the original data and model data. After analyzing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the NCP, the groundwater flow numerical simulation modeling was constructed with MODFLOW. On the basis of GIS, a dynamic evaluation system for groundwater resources under the internet circumstance was completed. During the process of constructing the groundwater model, a water budget was analyzed, which showed a negative budget in the NCP. The simulation period was from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2003. During this period, the total recharge of the groundwater system was 49,374 × 106 m3 and the total discharge was 56,530 × 106 m3 the budget deficit was −7,156 × 106 m3. In this integrated system, the original data including graphs and attribution data could be stored in the database. When the process of evaluating and predicting groundwater flow was started, these data were transformed into files that the core program of MODFLOW could read. The calculated water level and drawdown could be displayed and reviewed online.  相似文献   

10.
Assessment of ecological risk (ER) is a key approach to adapting and mitigating ecological deterioration in cities of developing countries. In developing countries, the ecological landscapes such as vegetation cover, water bodies, and wetlands are highly vulnerable due to rapid urban expansion. Therefore, urban ER (UER) assessment and its drivers are crucial to guide ecological protection as well as restoration. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of UER and the impact of urban spatial form on UER in the Kolkata Megacity Region (KMR), India. This study developed a UER index and used spatial regression models across the urban centres. The ER has been assessed at city scale as well as grid-scale (2 km × 2 km and 5 km × 5 km) from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that ER has substantially increased over the last 20 years. The urban centres with very high and high ER substantially increased, i.e. from 21.95% in 2000 to 31.70% in 2020. Kolkata and its surrounding urban centres were mostly characterized by very high and high ER. ER was influenced by spatial variables (such as land use and landscapes pattern). However, remote sensing parameters were weakly related to ER. The spatial lag model (SLM) (R2 = 0.8686) was found to be better fit model than spatial error model (SEM) (R2 = 0.8661) and ordinary linear regression model (OLS) (R2 = 0.8641). Thus, the findings of the study can improve research and a comprehensive framework for urban ecological resources and provide a scientific basis for urban ecosystem planning and restoration. In addition to this, it will guarantee the sustainable utilization of urban ecosystems.  相似文献   

11.
We use petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical data on modern river sediments of the Tupiza basin in the Bolivian Andes to investigate the relationships among human activity, heavy-metal contamination of sediments and modern erosion rates in mountain fluvial systems. Forward mixing model was used to quantify the relative contributions from each main tributary to total sediment load of the Tupiza River. The absolute sediment load was estimated by using the Pacific Southwest Inter Agency Committee model (PSIAC, 1968) after two years of geological field surveys (2009; 2010), together with data obtained from the Instituto Nacional del Agua public authority (INA, 2007), and suspended-load data from Aalto et al. (2006).Our results indicate that the sediment yield in the drainage basin is 910 ± 752 ton/km2year and the mean erosion rate is 0.40 ± 0.33 mm/year. These values compare well with erosion rates measured by Insel et al. (2010) using 10Be cosmogenic radionuclide concentrations in Bolivian river sediments. More than 40% of the Tupiza river load is produced in the upper part of the catchment, where highly tectonized and weathered rocks are exposed and coupled with sporadic land cover and intense human activity (mines). In the Rio Chilco basin strong erosion of upland valleys produce an increase of erosion (∼10 mm/year) and the influx of large amounts of sediment by mass wasting processes. The main floodplain of the Tupiza catchment represents a significant storage site for the heavy metals (∼657 ton/year). Fluvial sediments contain zinc, lead, vanadium, chromium, arsenic and nickel. Since the residence time of these contaminants in the alluvial plain may be more than 100 years, they may represent a potential source of pollution for human health.  相似文献   

12.
Cellular automata are simple mathematical idealizations of natural systems and they supply useful models for many investigations in natural science. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and slider block models used in seismology. In the present paper, they have been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. A stochastic cellular automaton is constructed starting with these patterns, in order to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution, by supposing a Moore's neighborhood interaction between the cells. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the Greece catalogue from 1900 to 1999. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for energies corresponding to m = 4 and m = 5 are close to the real seismicity after the data in that area, and they correspond to a background seismicity in the whole area. This background seismicity seems to cover the whole area in periods of around 25–50 years. The optimum cell size is in agreement with other studies; for m > 6 the optimum area increases according to the threshold of clear spatial resolution, and the active cells are not so clustered. The results are coherent with other hazard studies in the zone and with the seismicity recorded after the data set, as well as provide an interaction model which points out the large scale nature of the earthquake occurrence.  相似文献   

13.
Lead poisoning in young children remains a concern in many urban areas, even 30 years after the banning of Pb-based paint and leaded gasoline. In 2010, 16.6% of 6550 children tested in Toledo, OH had blood lead levels (BLLs) above the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) lead poisoning reference level of 5 μg/dL. The aim of this study was to spatially quantify the risk of lead poisoning to children in Toledo, OH and to reduce lead poisoning risk through educational outreach and citizen science.The educational outreach component of the study was implemented through the sampling strategy. Students in Toledo area schools were instructed on proper USEPA soil sampling guidelines and were asked to collect soil samples from their residential yards. A subsample of 81 soils was analyzed for total lead and bioavailable lead. Site-specific total lead and bioavailability data were used in the USEPA Integrated Exposure Uptake and Biokinetic (IEUBK) model to predict BLLs. Predicted BLLs were then used to extract expert knowledge for development of an index model using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted linear combination (WLC). Expert knowledge was used to standardize predictor datasets and to produce continuous BLL risk for each predictor variable. Fuzzy sets were implemented in the model to account for uncertainties in the sampling method.It was found that 8.6% of sampled sites had total soil lead concentrations above the USEPA action level of 400 mg/kg, but 28.4% of soil samples yielded predicted elevated BLLs, suggesting the action level is set too high. The spatial variables influencing risk of lead poisoning from most important to least important were age of housing, road density, percent impervious surfaces, home value, household income and soil type. The highest risk for lead poisoning was in the city center and decreased moving towards the rural areas surrounding the city. The index model paired with the unique outreach driven sampling approach proved successful both at providing quality soil samples and educating the community about the ongoing risks of lead in soil.  相似文献   

14.
The adsorption behaviour of uranyl onto seven different samples of quartz was studied in batch experiments. Sea-sand (0.1–0.3 mm), Fil-Pro 12/20 (1–2 mm) and five Min-U-Sil samples with smaller particle sizes (5, 10, 15, 30 and 40 μm) were used. The uptake curves show “pH adsorption edges” in the range of pH 4–5. A good agreement of the new data with literature data was found when plotting surface-normalised distribution coefficients versus pH. Differences in the adsorption behaviour for pre-treated and untreated sea-sand samples were detectable resulting in a shift of the pH edge to higher pH values after treatment. A literature surface complexation model was applied for blind predictions of the experimental results. The simulations described the experimental observations quite well for the Min-U-Sil samples. For the two coarser quartz samples, the calculated over-predictions were explained by the larger-than-expected measured specific surface area and measurable amounts of associated minerals, for Fil-Pro 12/20 and sea-sand, respectively. Dissolution of the samples was studied as a function of pH. After 5 days, the measured Si concentrations were all higher than equilibrium quartz solubilities, but lower than those of amorphous silica. With increasing pH, dissolved silica increased. This strongly suggests that formation of dissolved uranyl–silicato complexes have to be considered based on measured silica concentrations.  相似文献   

15.
One of the major causes of groundwater pollution in Hamadan–Bahar aquifer in western Iran is a non-point source pollution resulting from agricultural activities. Withdrawal of over 88% of drinking water from groundwater resources, adds urgency to the studies leading to a better management of water supplies in this region. In this study, the DRASTIC model was used to construct groundwater vulnerability maps based on the “intrinsic” (natural conditions) and “specific” (including management) concepts. As DRASTIC has drawbacks to simulate specific contaminants, we conditioned the rates on measured nitrate data and optimized the weights of the specific model to obtain a nitrate vulnerability map for the region. The performance of the conditioned DRASTIC model improved significantly (R 2 = 0.52) over the intrinsic (R 2 = 0.12) and specific (R 2 = 0.19) models in predicting the groundwater nitrate concentration. Our study suggests that a locally conditioned DRASTIC model is an effective tool for predicting the region’s vulnerability to nitrate pollution. In addition, comparison of groundwater tables between two periods 30 years apart indicated a drawdown of around 50 m in the central plain of the Hamadan–Bahar region. Our interpretation of the vulnerability maps for the two periods showed a polluted zone developing in the central valley requiring careful evaluation and monitoring.  相似文献   

16.
The study investigates the groundwater evolution and its residence time in the Ejina Basin, northwest China according to isotope and hydrochemical analyses results. The groundwater chemistry is mainly controlled by the dissolution of halite, Glauber’s salt, gypsum, dolomite and calcite, also influenced by other processes such as evaporation, ion exchange, and deposition. Based on tritium content in atmospheric precipitation and by adopting a model with exponential time distribution function, the mean residence time of the unconfined aquifer groundwater with fairly high tritium activities (21–49 TU) is evaluated. The results show that these groundwaters have low residence time (5–120 years) and are renewable. In contrast, the deep confined groundwaters are tritium-free and radiocarbon values range from 18.3 to 26.7 pmc. According to the most commonly used 14C correction models, the radiocarbon groundwater ages were calculated which yield ages of approximately 4,087–9,364 years BP. Isotopic signatures indicate formation of deep confined groundwaters in a colder and wetter climate during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. It is suggested that long-term, rational water usage guide should be set up for the Heihe River Basin as a whole to permit a considerable discharge to the Ejina Basin.  相似文献   

17.
Phenomenal storm surge levels associated with cyclones are common in East Coast of India. The coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh are in rapid stride of myriad marine infrastructural developments. The safe elevations of coastal structures need a long-term assessment of storm surge conditions. Hence, past 50 years (1949–1998), tropical cyclones hit the Bay are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorological & Oceanographic Center, USA, and analyzed to assess the storm surge experienced around Kakinada and along south Andhra Pradesh coast. In this paper, authors implemented Rankin Hydromet Vortex model and Bretschneider’s wind stress formulation to hindcast the surge levels. It is seen from the hindcast data that the November, 1977 cyclone has generated highest surge of the order of 1.98 m. Extreme value analysis is carried out using Weibull distribution for long-term prediction. The results reveal that the surge for 1 in 100-year return period is 2.0 m. Further the highest surge in 50 years generated by the severe cyclone (1977) is numerically simulated using hydrodynamic model of Mike-21. The simulation results show that the Krishnapatnam, Nizampatnam and south of Kakinada have experienced a surge of 1.0, 1.5 and 0.75 m, respectively.  相似文献   

18.
Chen  Kuang-Jung  Chiu  Bonbbon  Wang  Jee-Shiang  Lee  Cheng-Yu  Lin  Cheng-Horng  Chao  Kevin 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1233-1252
A strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 (M L  = 7.3) occurred on September 21, 1999, in central Taiwan. In order to discern any potential precursors before this earthquake, geomagnetic data at Lunping (LNP), Taiwan, Geomagnetic Observatory situated 100 km from the epicenter are examined using two methods, i.e., the traditional induction arrows and complex demodulation. Our results show that the remarkable temporal variation of real induction arrows appear to be strong prior to the great earthquake over the previous 24 months. After the great earthquake, the magnitudes of induction arrows decreased to the normal (mean of 8 years) levels. In other words, the direction of real induction arrows of the periods 30 and 20 min rotated 85° and 40° anticlockwise, respectively, before the Chi-Chi earthquake and returned to mean direction of last 10 years after the earthquake. A horizontal source field model using the finite difference method for 3-D shows that the variation of the real induction arrows might be ascribed to the conductivity variation body, which is 5 km buried at the epicenter area of the Chi-Chi earthquake, changing its conductivity from 0.002S/m to 0.06 S/m. The ratios of modulus (demodulated by using the complex demodulation method) over a period 12, and 8 h relative to the period of 24 h reveal a remarkable change that appeared 4–5 months prior to this strong earthquake. They increased gradually from the beginning of 1999 to August 1999 and decreased again to a (8 years) mean level after the strong earthquake occurrence. We consider that the variation of the induction arrow might be ascribed to the conductivity anomaly, which is buried 5 km at the south-east side of LNP with a conductivity change of 0.06 S/m. We propose that this elevation might be related to the preparation process of the great earthquake.  相似文献   

19.
《Geodinamica Acta》2002,15(1):93-101
The first numerical age determinations from radiocarbon dating establish the chronology of glacial events in Redes Natural Park (Cantabrian Mountain, NW Spain). A core drilled in an ice-dammed deposit provided a minimum age of 28 990 ± 230 years BP for the maximum glacial expansion (phase I). Another core from a cirque bottom-fill provided organic sediment with 20 640 ± 300 years BP, a minimum age for the first glacial retreat (phase II). Radiometric dating of proglacial deposits interpreted as synchronous with the last glacial maximum phase in neighbouring Comella basin (Picos de Europa), yield ages of 40 480 ± 820 years BP. The chronological data presented in this work are consistent with the model of glacier evolution established in the Pyrénées, with a glacial maximum phase for the last glacial period older than 18 ka.  相似文献   

20.
Holec  Juraj  Šveda  Martin  Szatmári  Daniel  Feranec  Ján  Bobáľová  Hana  Kopecká  Monika  Šťastný  Pavel 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):3099-3120

The aim of this interdisciplinary study is to assess the heat risk for Bratislava. The following layers were created to compute the risk index: the hazard layer of air temperature, a mitigation layer of tree vegetation, an exposure layer of population and a vulnerability layer of individuals over 65 years of age. The MUKLIMO_3 model was used to evaluate the field of mean surface air temperature at 9 PM during selected days of the summer heat wave in August 2018. The tree vegetation layer, in the form of percentage per grid cell, was derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data. Population density data are based on mobile positioning data, and elderly population data are based on a gridded database from the statistical census. Input layers were unified into a resolution of 500 × 500 m, and the heat risk index was calculated by summation of the weighted input layers. The results reflect the variability of the population and the elderly population within the city, as well as the variability of the temperature field, which is caused by the joint effect of an urban heat island and topography. The highest values of risk index occur within the broader city centre, with specific hot spots at several places.

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