共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述 总被引：47，自引：0，他引：47
随着中国气象局对近50年来逐日气象观测资料的释放,人们从不同的角度对中国平均气候和极端气候的分布特征有了更多的了解.从目前研究的结果来看,这些认识需要有一个集成,即需要有一个总体的归纳和解释.通过中国近40年来的温度极值和降水极值事件的分析认识到全球增暖和区域环流异常决定着气候极值事件的分布格局.与全球增暖相联系的是:我国微量降水在空间上表现为一致的减少趋势,我国北方寒潮事件显著减少,冷夜和冷日的减少与暖夜和暖日的增多并存,以及极端强降水有增多的趋势.与东亚季风气流和西风带气流异常对应的我国有效降水在区域分布上发生了显著变化,东部季风区中的"北涝南旱"从1970年代末转型为"南涝北旱",与华南的偏干一起形成了东部季风区降水从华南、长江到华北的"-、 、-"异常分布型,但华南在1991年出现了转湿的突变;东北和西北先后从1983年和1987年前后转为暖湿气候.极端温度和极端降水趋势的空间分布与平均温度和平均降水趋势的空间分布一致. 相似文献
2.
1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件气候变化特征 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
利用辽宁省52个气象台站逐日平均气温、 最高气温和最低气温数据, 使用国际通用的10种极端气候指数, 研究了1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件的气候变化特征. 结果表明: 年平均极端气温事件空间分布存在明显的地区差异. 时间尺度上, 1961-2012年辽宁省年及四季极端暖事件(暖昼日数、 暖夜日数、 夏季日数、 热带夜数和热浪持续指数)呈增加趋势, 极端冷事件(冷昼日数、 冷夜日数、 结冰日数、 霜冻日数和寒潮持续指数)呈减少趋势; 极端暖事件在20世纪90年代中期开始明显增加, 极端冷事件在20世纪80年代末期开始显著减少; 极端暖事件的变化速率要小于极端冷事件. 辽宁省气温日较差有增大的趋势, 极端暖(冷)事件的增加(减少)在秋季(冬季)最为显著. 空间变化上, 极端气温事件在全省基本都呈一致的增加或减少的分布. 多数极端气温事件均存在8 a左右的周期, 检测到的突变的时间大致在20世纪80年代中期到90年代末期. 20世纪80年代末期辽宁省气候变暖后, 极端暖事件和冷事件均有明显的增加和减少. 相似文献
3.
The Effective Temperature (ET), which considers the aggregate effects of temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to describe the human thermal sensitivity, was employed to investigate the change of thermal conditions over Yunnan Province in China during the period of 1961-2014. The observation data used in the study is the high resolution gridded daily scale dataset CN05.1. The results show that over the northern part of the Province with high elevation mountains, colder temperature, lower relative humidity and stronger wind speed prevail, which leads to the lower ET values there. Opposite conditions are found over the low elevation areas in the south. An overall warming and decrease of both relative humidity and wind speed are observed in the latest decades in the whole Province, resulting in the general increase of ET over the region. Analysis based on the different assessment scales of ET shows that, more cold/extreme cold days and cool days exist in the north, while the cool days and comfortable days are mainly distributed in the south. General decrease of cold/extreme cold days is found over the region. An increase of the cool days in the north and decrease of it in the south, significant increase of the comfortable days, and increase of warm and hot/extreme hot days over portions in the south are reported. More climatic favorable days are found in all of the four seasons. Within the climate change context, the significant reduction of cold/extreme cold days and increase of climatic favorable days indicate that the climate in Yunnan Province so far tends to be more favorable for the human beings. 相似文献
4.
Daily data of minimum and maximum temperature from 76 meteorological stations for 1960–2010 are used to detect the annual and seasonal variations of temperature extremes in the arid region, China. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen estimator are used to assess the significance of the trend and amount of change, respectively. Fifteen temperature indices are examined. The temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends. Warming trends in indices derived from daily minimum temperature are of greater magnitudes than those from maximum temperature, and stations along the Tianshan Mountains have larger trend magnitudes. The decreases in frequency for cold extremes mainly occur in summer and autumn, while warm extremes show significant increases in frequency in autumn and winter. For the arid region as a whole, the occurrence of cold nights and cold days has decreased by ?1.89 and ?0.89 days/decade, respectively, and warm nights and warm days has increased by 2.85 and 1.37 days/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days exhibit significant decreasing trends at the rates of ?3.84 and ?2.07 days/decade. The threshold indices also show statistically significant increasing trends, with the extreme lowest temperatures faster than highest temperatures. The diurnal temperature range has decreased by 0.23 °C/decade, which is in accordance with the more rapid increases in minimum temperature than in maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for local human mitigation to alterations in water resources and ecological environment in the arid region of China due to the changes of temperature extremes. 相似文献
5.
青海省极端气温事件的气候变化特征研究 总被引：9，自引：3，他引：6
选用青海省37个气象站点1961-2011年近51 a, 逐日气温(最高、 最低、 平均)资料, 采用国际通用的极端气温指数定义计算了9种极端气温指数, 并分析其主要气候特征.结果表明: 近51 a青海省极端气温呈明显上升趋势, 极端冷指标(霜冻、 结冰日数、 冷夜、 冷昼指数)呈下降趋势, 而极端暖指标(夏天日数、 暖夜、 暖昼指数)呈上升趋势, 且极端冷指标的减少幅度高于极端暖指标的增加幅度.空间分布上, 极端气温指数在全省呈一致的上升(下降)趋势分布.在近51 a的时间尺度上各种极端气温指数都存在多个较明显的周期, 如较短的3~8 a的准周期, 以及13 a、 17 a、 27 a的年代际周期特征.青海省年平均气温与极端气温指数有很高的相关性, 气候变暖突变前后极端气温指数表现出明显差异: 在变暖突变发生后, 霜冻日数、 冷夜指数、 冷昼指数、 结冰日数明显减少, 夏天日数、 暖夜指数及暖昼指数明显增加, 其中相对指数几乎呈倍数显著变化, 表明极端气温指数对气候变暖有很好的响应. 相似文献
6.
河西内陆河流域出山径流对气候转型的响应 总被引：39，自引：14，他引：25
对甘肃河西内陆河流域出山径流变化过程与趋势的研究表明,从20世纪80年代中后期开始,受西风环流降水的影响,祁连山区中、西部的黑河、疏勒河流域的气候环境发出了由增温变干转为变湿的讯号,具体表现为随着山区气温升高,降水量增加,出山径流相应增大.采用区域气候模式预测和水文统计模式的计算,亦同样证实出山径流有显著的增加趋势.但受季风影响的祁连山东部的石羊河流域则尚未出现这种转变,从20世纪50年代起,出山径流量持续下降,表明其气候环境仍向增温变干的方向发展. 相似文献
7.
根据历史文献中的作物种植界线、种植制度变化、植物及异常气象水文物候等记载,并辅以树轮、湖泊沉积等自然证据指示的冷暖变化状况,分析了宋元时期(960～1368A.D.)我国西北地区东部的冷暖变化特征。主要结论是： 960A.D.前后,西北东部地区冷暖程度与今(即 1951～1980年)基本一致; 960s～1040s,气候逐渐增暖; 1040s～1110s,气候较今暖; 1110s以后,气候转冷; 12世纪末,气候又再次明显转暖; 1260A.D.之后,温度下降,自13世纪末进入寒冷期。西北东部的这一冷暖变化过程不但与毗邻地区湖泊、特别是树轮等所指示的冷暖变化过程较为一致,而且与中国东部地区的冷暖变化也基本一致,但13世纪后期的降温幅度较中国东部更为明显。 相似文献
8.
中国极端气温季节变化对全球变暖减缓的响应分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用经过质量控制和均一化处理的中国气象站点1979-2014年逐月最高气温和最低气温资料,对806个无缺测站的数据进行趋势分析和比较,并且计算了各季节对变暖减缓的贡献率,结果表明:中国区域极端气温(最高和最低气温)存在变暖减缓或变冷现象,而不同区域在不同季节对全球变暖减缓的响应程度不同.相比于1979-1999年,2000-2014年极端气温在全国大部分地区春、冬季有明显的变暖减缓或者变冷现象,在长江流域以北大部分地区极端气温在夏季变暖减缓或变冷现象明显,而秋季全国大部分地区最低气温有明显的增暖现象.全国许多地区春季是导致极端气温变暖减缓或变冷的最主要季节,而夏、秋、冬季则是导致部分地区变暖减缓或变冷的主要季节,此外秋季也是导致全国许多地区最低气温变暖的最主要季节.我国大部分地区2000-2014年的变暖减缓或变冷趋势可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷位相的调控,而PDO冷位相对最低气温的影响范围更大一些. 相似文献
9.
Late Holocene temperature fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Proxy data of palaeoclimate, like ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments, document aspects of climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 2000 years. The results show that the Tibetan Plateau experienced climatic episodes such as the warm intervals during AD 800–1100 and 1150–1400, the “Little Ice Age” between AD 1400 and 1900, and an earlier cold period between the 4th and 6th centuries. In addition, temperatures varied from region to region across the plateau. A warm period from AD 800 to 1100 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was contemporaneous with cooling in the southern Tibetan Plateau, which experienced warming between AD 1150 and 1400. Large-scale trends in the temperature history from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau resemble those in eastern China more than the trends from the southern Plateau. The most notable similarities between the temperature variations of the Tibetan Plateau and eastern China are cold phases during AD 1100–1150, 1500–1550, 1650–1700 and 1800–1850. 相似文献
10.
Climatic causes of ecological and environmental variations in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers of China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers of China, glaciers, frozen ground, the hydrological system, and alpine
vegetation have changed over the past decades years. Climatic causes of these variations have been analyzed using mean monthly
air temperature and monthly precipitation between 1956 and 2000, and monthly evaporation from φ20 evaporation pans between
1961 and 1996. In the source region of the Yangtze River, lower temperature and plentiful precipitation during the 1960s and
continuing into the early 1980s triggered a glacier advance that culminated in the early 1990s, while a robust temperature
increase and precipitation decrease since 1986 has forced glaciers to retreat rapidly since 1995. Permafrost degradation is
another consequence of the climatic warming. The variations in the hydrological system and alpine vegetation are controlled
mainly by the climate during the warm season. Warmer and drier summer climate is the major cause of a degradation of the vegetation,
desiccation of the high-cold marshland, a decrease in the areas and numbers of lakes and rivers in the middle and north source
regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, and a reduction in surface runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River for
the last 20 years. The causes of eco-environmental change in Dari area, near the outlet from the source area of the Yellow
River, are different from those elsewhere in the study area. A noticeable reduction in runoff in the source region of the
Yellow River and degradation of alpine vegetation in Dari area are closely related to the permafrost degradation resulting
from climate warming. 相似文献
11.
气候变暖背景下,极端寒冷事件仍有发生且常伴随严重的经济、社会影响,需要更为深入的研究。1929—1930年极端冷冬事件作为增暖背景下的极端冷事件,对其研究相对缺乏。通过收集并分析民国时期的气象器测资料和报刊资料,对1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件进行探讨。结果表明: (1)本次冷冬的空间范围包括华北地区、长江流域(重庆至入海口段)和北疆地区,西北地区可能存在冷冬;寒冷的核心时段为1929年12月到次年1月。(2)本次冷冬时空范围内的地区月平均气温极端性强,华北、长江流域的12月份均温都超过十年一遇的冷事件水平,长江流域、北疆地区的1月份均温均超过五十年一遇水平;但月最低气温的极端性较弱,大部分站点月的最低温达到五年一遇水平,部分站点月超过十年一遇水平。(3)本次冷冬至少经历了7次区域性或全国性的降温事件,其中有3次降温事件达到全国性寒潮事件标准,时段分别为12月1—5日、12月16—20日和1月1—5日;其中第1次和第3次是影响中国的典型中路寒潮路径,第2次降温过程的时空特征不显著。(4)综合本次冷冬前旱后涝气候特点、该时段内ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)指数的变化以及前人对ENSO和中国气候变异的关系研究,推测1920s末到1930s初期的气象灾害很大程度受影响于ENSO事件。 相似文献
12.
中国泥炭记录末次冰消期以来古气候研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
泥炭记录的环境演变是过去全球变化（PAGES）研究的重要领域之一,分析了中国泥炭记录的古气候演化研究的区域范围,当前主要以东北哈尼、青藏高原的红原、神农架大九湖以及华南定南大湖四个位于东部季风区的研究工作最为集中。泥炭沉积高分辨率综合信息揭示了末次冰消期以来中国气候变化的时空特征：冷暖干湿变化既有一致性又表现出区域差异,末次冰消期东北地区、东部山地、华南地区都表现出冷偏湿的气候特点,而青藏高原却为冷偏干或凉偏干;Younger Dryas（YD）事件之后,全新世早期和中期青藏高原、东部山地、华南地区气候总体以温湿为主要特征,而东北地区有效降水减少,到全新世晚期,呈现出干旱的变化趋势。并对B~A事件,YD事件,8.2 ka 以及4.2 ka等重大气候突变事件研究工作进行了综述。最后指出今后应拓展与重建更多区域古气候环境变化序列的对比,加强泥炭沉积及环境指标的基础理论,重视和提高大气沉降泥炭档案以及气候变化背景下泥炭地碳循环机制等研究工作。 相似文献
13.
Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season
(March–May) is the hottest part of the year over almost the entire South Asian region, in which hot weather extremes including
heat waves are recurring natural hazards having serious societal impacts, particularly on human health. In the present paper,
recent trends in extreme temperature events for the pre-monsoon season have been studied using daily data on maximum and minimum
temperatures over a well-distributed network of 121 stations for the period 1970–2005. For this purpose, time series of extreme
temperature events have been constructed for India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH),
Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP). 相似文献
14.
To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962?C2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May?CAugust) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region. 相似文献
15.
根据生物、湖泊及冰川地层记录,分析了青藏高原末次冰消期的气候演化特点,并将其与格陵兰、欧洲气候演化序列进行了对比分析.结果表明,末次冰消期的气候演化大致可分为两个阶段:前一阶段为暖期,但波动频繁;格陵兰、欧洲在经历了H1事件后,迅速转暖,Bolling期比Allerod期气候更为适宜;而青藏高原渐趋回暖,夏季风降水逐渐增加,存在由冰融水与降水增加所形成的高湖面,气候温湿,进入一次湖泊扩涨期;大部分记录指示Allerod期比Bolling期气候更为适宜.后一阶段为冷期,格陵兰、欧洲气候恶化并显示出有回返冰期的气候特点;青藏高原气候严酷、荒漠扩展、冰流推进、湖面下降.气候演化的这种异同性表明:格陵兰、欧洲与青藏高原气候系统彼此存在联系,特别是在冷期;而在暖期,气候演化表现出各自的特点.气候演化格局所呈现的可比性,可能是通过冷期的一致而体现的. 相似文献
16.
气候变暖背景下内蒙古大兴安岭生态功能区冷暖急转气候特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
1961-2015年内蒙古大兴安岭生态功能区气候变暖趋势明显,其气温突变年份为1987年。在气候变暖的背景下,生态功能区的严寒和寒冷日数在突变前呈减少趋势、在突变后呈增加趋势,表明突变后冬季冷天日数并没有明显减少趋势;炎热和温暖日数在突变后呈极显著增加趋势,而暖天日数突变前后变化较为平缓。综合来看,在气候变暖的背景下气温突变后高温日数增加要显著多于低温日数增加。过渡期日数变化趋势特征表明,严寒炎热过渡期、寒冷温暖过渡期和冷暖过渡期在突变后明显变短,生态功能区冷暖急转现象尤为明显。在历年尺度上,冷暖过渡期日数变化随着温度范围的扩大而减少幅度在加大。 相似文献
17.
The possible changes of extreme climates over China under 1.5 ℃ global warming scenario were investigated by using the output of CORDEX (COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) experiments with a regional air-sea coupled model FROALS over East Asia domain. Results indicated that compared to the baseline period of 1986-2005, warm events would significantly increase while cold events would significantly decrease over China in a 1.5 ℃ warmer world. The risks of extreme and moderate warm events would be 2.14 and 1.93 times of that in the baseline period, respectively. The risks of extreme and moderate cold events would be 0.58 and 0.63 times of that in the baseline period, respectively. Compared to other sub-regions, the increasing amplitude of extreme warm events would be higher in North China, while the decreasing amplitude of extreme cold events would be higher in Northeast China. Risks of extreme dry events would increase in Northwest China, Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China (1.13, 1.02 and 1.22 times of that in baseline period). Precipitation intensity and extreme wet events would increase significantly over most parts of China, and the increasing amplitudes extreme wet events will be higher in North China and South China (1.88 and 1.85 times of that in the baseline period). Days when people may feel uncomfortable would increase significantly in eastern China, and compared to simple extreme warm events, the increasing amplitude of extreme uncomfortable days would be larger. The absolute changes of heating degree-days would be larger than that of cooling degree-days (-258℃·d and 72℃·d, respectively) in eastern China, but the relative change of heating degree-days would be smaller than cooling degree-days (-10% and 82%, respectively). 相似文献
18.
张掖地区近35年来的气温变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用张掖地区6个气象站1970～2004年月平均气温、月平均最高、最低气温资料,采用气候倾向率、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall、小波分析等方法对张掖地区近35年的气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）1970～2004年张掖地区的气温呈现出明显的上升趋势,其中民乐站增幅最高,临泽站增幅最低,平均气温倾向率为0．491℃／10a,且冬季气温增长更为显著;（2）近35年张掖地区的变暖与西北地区同步,但明显早于中国及全球,且升温幅度更大;（3）分析认为,张掖地区目前仍处于气温上升、降水量减少的暖干条件,即气候的未转型区。 相似文献
19.
通过分析总结在中国阿尔泰山区域已取得的树轮气候学和树轮水文学研究成果,选取了5条气温重建序列,3条降水重建序列和2条径流量重建序列,对各序列在全频域、低频域和高频域的相关系数、序列的阶段变化、极值年份、周期等特征展开了讨论和对比,并对阿尔泰山气候的年代际变化进行了分析。结果表明：（1）目前在阿尔泰山开展的气温重建中,重建时段均在树木生长季内,5条气温重建序列显示在1690年代-1700年代、1730年代、1780年代-1790年代为偏冷时期,1710年代-1720年代、1800年代-1830年代、1940年代-1960年代及1990年代以来为偏暖时期。有3条序列指示1830年为暖年,1698年、1784年、1911年、1985-1986年为冷年。（2）3条降水重建序列显示,1830年代-1860年代经历了一段降水量相对平稳的时期,1870年代-1900年代为持续时间最长的干旱时期,1900年为干旱年。（3）2条径流量重建序列显示,1730年代和1810年代-1820年代为丰水期,1750年代和1870年代-1890年代为枯水期,降水量对哈巴河径流量有较大影响。（4）年代际气候变化分析显示,阿尔泰山在1830年代-1990年代以暖干为主,1990年代以后进入了暖湿时期。 相似文献
20.
黄河源区气温变化特征及预估分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用黄河源区青海段9个代表性站点1961-2017年逐日气温资料和未来RCP4.5排放情景下的预估数据,分析和预估了黄河源区年平均、年平均最高、年平均最低和极端气温变化特征。结果表明：近57年来年平均最高、年平均、年平均最低气温均呈显著上升趋势且倾向率依次增大。年平均气温和年平均最高气温在1997年存在显著突变。通过分析1961-1997年、1998-2007年以及2008-2017年阶段性变化可知,年平均气温持续上升,年平均最高气温先上升后趋于稳定,而年平均最低气温升温速率在1998-2007年最大,2008-2017年升温速率较1998-2007年有所降低。暖昼日数持续增多,霜冻日数和冰封日数持续减少,冷夜日数在1998-2007年减少速率最低,近10年来减少速率增大。未来33年黄河源区年平均、年平均最高、年平均最低气温和极端暖事件均呈明显的增加趋势,极端冷事件呈减少趋势。对黄河源区过去和未来气温变化规律进行了探讨,将为该区域气温变化对策的制定与实施提供理论依据。 相似文献