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1.
热带气旋是造成东北的东南部地区夏季暴雨的主要天气系统之一。据统计，在东北的东南部地区发生的大暴雨洪水中约有５０％左右的暴雨洪水与热带气旋的影响有关。为做好旋汛水情工作，本文从实用的角度，总结了北上热带气旋的基本规律，分析了有热带气旋影响降雨的几种主要形式以及相应的典型暴雨洪水实例。 相似文献
2.
本文应用1976年提出的登陆浙、闽的热带气旋造成华北暴雨的天气预报指标对近12年登陆浙、闽的热带气旋对华北暴雨的影响进行了考察分析，指出30年前的研究成果目前仍然适用，同时根据30年来的天气变化提出了预报指标的调整方案。 相似文献
3.
《地学前缘》2017,(4):124-133
热带气旋是全球最具破坏性的天气系统之一。随着全球气候变暖,热带气旋的异常活动受到了各国政府、民众和学术界广泛的关注。本文分析了热带气旋对海洋沉积物"从源到汇"过程中的作用及其机制,表明热带气旋是陆源沉积物、有机碳和污染物通过河流向海洋输送的重要控制因素;热带气旋产生的波浪、强流和内波可造成河口和陆架沉积物再悬浮、侵蚀、液化甚至剪切破坏,对陆架沉积物向深海输送起重要作用。虽然热带气旋有随全球变暖而增强的趋势,但热带气旋发生频率与全球变暖之间的关系尚不明确,对未来热带气旋发生频率的预测结果也存在较大分歧,对该问题的研究需要长期、高分辨率的热带气旋记录,使用热带气旋沉积记录研究热带气旋活动规律具有必要性和可行性。 相似文献
4.
热带气旋是可以影响全球中低纬度海域的气象现象。系统总结和回顾了国内外热带气旋的主要特征、潜在影响因素及影响机制的相关研究进展,并对其在全球变化背景下的变化趋势进行了总结和剖析。全球变暖以来,热带气旋的源地和路径都出现极移的趋势,移动速度略有增加,频率减小并且强度增大,但各大洋存在显著差异。重点回顾了火山活动、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动和太平洋年代际振荡、太阳辐射、热带辐合带以及气溶胶等因素对热带气旋的影响。其中,火山喷发导致平流层存在大量气溶胶,通过降低海表温度对热带气旋产生消极影响,但这种机制存在地域性差异;厄尔尼诺—南方涛动和太平洋年代际振荡以遥相关的方式调制全球热带气旋活动;太阳辐射和热带辐合带的变化与热带气旋频数存在相关性;气溶胶对不同发展阶段的热带气旋存在相反的影响机制。由于器测热带气旋数据在时间长度上和大部分替代指标在分辨率上的不足,严重制约了全球变化背景下热带气旋潜在影响因素的研究。未来可以通过寻找高分辨率记录载体来量化热带气旋活动历史,进一步解析热带气旋与潜在影响因素的关系,完善在气候波动影响下热带气旋活动的变化机制。 相似文献
5.
西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
热带气旋和台风是严重的突发性自然灾害之一。近20年来,对热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究成为台风领域的一个重要研究方向,并取得了显著的研究进展。通过对西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的季节、年际和年代际时间尺度变化的研究回顾,揭示了造成热带气旋和台风活动不同时间尺度变化的主要影响机制,其中包括低频振荡、季风槽和西传赤道波动、ENSO和QBO现象等,这些系统主要通过改变西北太平洋上空的环流,而影响到西北太平洋热带气旋活动以及登陆我国台风的不同时间尺度变化。还在西北太平洋海域热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展和作者最新的研究成果的基础上,展望了该领域的研究前景,并提出当前此研究领域中一些亟需研究的科学问题,主要包括了季风槽区能量交换、不同海域动力过程、赤道波动演变,以及热带气旋的季节和更长时间尺度的预测。 相似文献
6.
提出了确定东亚夏季风活动区域、划分热带季风和副热带季风活动区域的指标,利用大气对流层风速、位势高度、湿度、温度、OLR以及TBB等NCEP/NCAR资料,从月、候和过程平均多种时间尺度,诊断分析了2005年6月(简称“0506”)华南持续性暴雨的季风环流活动变化特征.结果表明:副热带高压强度偏强,西脊点位置偏西偏南,热带西太平洋(130°～140°E)区域越赤道气流偏强,华南处于气旋性低压异常区,无论是月时间尺度还是暴雨过程时间尺度都表现出这些明显特征;暴雨过程水汽除了来源于孟加拉湾和南海外,水汽通量异常部分主要来自南海和热带西太平洋,热带西太平洋水汽随着副高边缘气流经过南海向华南输送,从而为暴雨过程提供了丰富的水汽来源;2005年6月热带季风前沿在华南沿海地区停滞时间比气候平均偏长(2候),该特征是华南暴雨预报值得参考的信号;6月整个南海地区平均季风偏强,主要体现于经向风明显偏强,但华南持续性暴雨过程开始于南海地区夏季风非活跃期,这与热带季风季节内振荡向北传播到华南有关.以上季风活动变化特征为华南强降水提供了有利的动力条件和丰富的水汽来源. 相似文献
7.
综述了我国学者近年来用非线性最优扰动方法探索热带气旋目标观测及其外场试验的主要进展,具体包括：从提高数值模式初始场精度的角度,用条件非线性最优扰动方法确定了热带气旋路径和强度预报的目标观测敏感区,并成功应用于“风云四号”气象卫星和下投探空仪台风目标观测外场试验,助力业务部门获得了宝贵资料。从减小模式误差或外强迫不确定性的角度,将非线性强迫奇异向量方法应用于探讨热带气旋强度预报的敏感性,揭示了模式误差的敏感气象要素和敏感区,以及海表温度强迫的敏感区;用集合扰动的思路识别了热带气旋快速增强过程预报的行星边界层的模式误差敏感区。讨论了目前热带气旋目标观测研究存在的问题以及可能的解决方法,展望了未来热带气旋目标观测研究应努力的前沿方向,及其在实际预报中的应用前景。 相似文献
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9.
马莲河流域"2003·8"暴雨洪水调查分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
2003年8月25日,马莲河流域普降暴雨,暴雨中心发生了百年一遇特大洪水,流域出口控制站出现了1956年设站以来的第二大洪水,造成了重大的洪涝灾害.通过暴雨洪水调查,分析了本次暴雨洪水特性,为研究该流域暴雨洪水灾害及防治对策提供科学依据. 相似文献
10.
面向灾害风险评估的热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟综述 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
历史热带气旋记录时间序列较短空间差异大,热带气旋灾害风险评估经常面临样本不足,特别是超强台风及巨灾记录历史样本的问题,从而导致传统概率统计方法失效。过去20多年来,逐渐发展出一套完整的方法体系进行热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟,其特点是充分利用历史总体样本信息,生成大量符合历史样本特征的热带气旋路径及强度随机事件样本集,从而有效地解决了局地历史样本不足的问题。在回顾热带气旋的年频次、季节分布、路径分布、强度及影响范围时空规律研究进展基础上,系统综述了用于热带气旋路径及随机模拟的起始点模型、行进模型、终止点模型、洋面强度模型、陆地衰减模型及结果检验方法等领域的进展及不足,然后对其在世界各地的应用进行了概述,并对未来研究改进方向及应用领域进行了展望。 相似文献
11.
In this paper, the main meteorological and meteorologically induced marine disasters in Shanghai are climatologically investigated on the basis of historical qualitative documentary records and quantitative data. Statistics show that disasters may be classified into six different kinds, of which three are fundamental, i.e. floods, winds, and storm surges. Emphasis is placed on the detailed analysis and discussion of floods, tropical cyclones, and Mei-yu which affect Shanghai and cause destructive calamities.Firstly, the classification of floods, their frequencies, and geographical distribution characteristics are described and the regulation of the climatic variation of floods is revealed. Secondly, the frequency, source regions, seasonal variations, tracks, and translatory speeds of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai, and their induced strong winds, storm rainfalls, and storm surges are systematically studied. Many meaningful conclusions have been reached for providing the climatological background of Shanghai.The climatic change and its regulation of these main disasters in Shanghai have been basically clarified throughout this study. 相似文献
12.
Modeling the effects of tropical cyclones on flooding in the Santa Fe river basin,Florida 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Peter R. Waylen 《GeoJournal》1991,23(4):361-373
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In recent years, tropical cyclones on the Pacific Northwest have decreased. We cannot infer that tropical cyclones impact China have reduced, because the Pacific Northwest is not homogeneous, and the variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in different sea areas are not clear. This paper uses gray relational density clustering algorithm to cluster tropical cyclone data sets between 1949 and 2008, according to the generated position of tropical cyclones, generated density and the possibility of landing. The Pacific Northwest is divided into different sea areas. Then, we analyze the risk of tropical cyclones generated in these sea areas. The results show that the probability of tropical cyclones landing generated in some sea areas is very high, reached 74 %, but the probability of tropical cyclones landing generated in other sea areas is only 2 %. Tropical cyclones generated in some sea areas are more likely to develop into typhoons, strong typhoons and so on, but the intensity of tropical cyclones generated in other sea areas is lower, there is little risk for China. Finally, according to the climate change stage trends, we divide the period 1949–2008 into three stages and analyze the tropical cyclone risk of each sea areas. 相似文献
15.
浅析甘肃小流域分布特性及山洪灾害成灾特点 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
暴雨洪水是自然界的主要灾害之一,它是水文现象的极端事件。山洪给国民经济和人民的生命财产造成很大损失,它是甘肃经济社会发展的重要制约因素之一。随着经济发展,人口增加,山洪给国民经济和社会发展带来的损失将越来越大,因此,防洪减灾任务仍十分艰巨。本文对甘肃省小流域分布特性及山洪成灾特点进行了分析,并提出了山洪灾害防治的建议。 相似文献
16.
Bangladesh is highly susceptible to tropical cyclones. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of climatological studies on the tropical
cyclones of Bangladesh. The Global Tropical Cyclone Climatic Atlas (GTCCA) lists historical storm track information for all
the seven tropical cyclone ocean basins including the North Indian Ocean. Using GIS, tropical cyclones that made landfall
in Bangladesh during 1877–2003 are identified and examined from the climatological perspective. For the convenience of study,
the coast of Bangladesh is divided into five segments and comparisons are made among the coastal segments in terms of cyclone
landfall and vulnerability. There is a large variability in the year-to-year occurrence of landfalling tropical cyclones in
Bangladesh. Most of the tropical cyclones (70%) hit in the months of May–June and October–November generally show the well-known
pattern of pre- and post-monsoon cyclone seasons in that region. 相似文献
17.
The objective of the present study is to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges at the household level in existing and changing status of households. The primary data were collected from a cyclone prone coastal area in Bangladesh, through structured questionnaire and GPS survey, key informants interviews and field observations. In order to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors geographical information systems based Structured Query Language (SQL) query has been used. The study simulated the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges on the basis of collected data through pre-designed SQL query. The study found the number of most vulnerable households under existing conditions and how much it will be afterward of a favourable or adverse change of the factors of vulnerability associated with households. The major findings of the study unveil that the socioeconomic and physical factors of human vulnerability have important function to determine the household’s level of vulnerability to the cyclone induced disaster. It has been demonstrated that the degree of vulnerability of households is changed with its physical and socioeconomic status. This study provides a conceptual model for assessing and simulating vulnerability to other natural hazards like floods, droughts, riverbank erosions and so forth. This study highlights that the households’ intrinsic vulnerable conditions are responsible for its defencelessness to the hazards and the reduction of vulnerability is the first measure of integrated and sustainable disaster management in the coastal Bangladesh. 相似文献
18.
Tropical cyclones are well-known extreme weather and the cause of considerable damages, injuries and loss of life. The assessment of the maximum sustained wind speed along the track of the tropical cyclones is very important for estimating the strength of the cyclones. The swarm intelligence in the form of ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is introduced in this study to compute the pheromone deposition along the track of tropical cyclones followed by neural nets to forecast the maximum sustained wind speed of the cyclones occurring over the Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean. The ACO is a nonlinear problem-based meta-heuristic optimization method for finding approximate solutions to discrete optimization problems and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. The method has shown its application potential in various fields including the prediction of monsoon rainfall. In this study, the amount of pheromone deposition during the successive stages of the cyclones has been estimated. A range of minimum central pressure (MCP), central pressure drop (PD), maximum sustained wind speed (MSWS) and intensity (T-No) associated with the cyclones of Bay of Bengal are utilized to form the input matrix of the neural nets. The neural nets are trained to forecast the maximum sustained wind speed along the track of the tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal. The result reveals that the errors in forecasting the MSWS along the track of tropical cyclones with 6, 12, 18 and 24 h lead time are 2.6, 2.9, 3.1 and 4.8, respectively. The result is compared with the existing dynamical, statistical and adaptive models to evaluate the skill of the present model. The result is well validated with observation. 相似文献
19.
The Flood Risk in Cairns 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Peter Baddiley 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):155-164
The Cairns region, on the north tropical coast of Queensland, forms part of the wettestarea in Australia, with mean annual rainfalls of 2,000 to 4,000 mm. During the summerand early autumn months, intense rainfalls associated with cyclones and other tropicalweather influences persist for several days, and can produce severe flooding in theBarron, Mulgrave and Russell Rivers and smaller drainage systems. There is oftensome loss of life and the damage to buildings, transport infrastructure, sugar cane andother agricultural crops can easily exceed 100 million. Very high intensity rainfallsover shorter periods, only a few hours, also present a significant urban flash flood risk,as happened at Townsville City, some 300 km to the south of Cairns, in January 1998.Despite the use of good floodplain management practices in recent decades, the combinedrisk of severe river floods and urban drainage floods is relatively high when comparedwith the other more damaging, but less frequent, natural hazards. 相似文献
20.
This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible
effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the
years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates
the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is
concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to tropical cyclones. However, there are additional economic costs
when sustained wind speeds are higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h), a level that generally will lead to a precautionary cessation
of many human activities. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the paper calculates the potential economic costs for the year 2085
under a climate change scenario with a linear one-per cent yearly increase in CO2. Using a spatial distribution of economic activity in Japan, it is possible to forecast which parts of the country are likely
to experience the highest loss risk. 相似文献